Potential for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to inform Pacific salmon management

A Catastrophic Biodiversity Loss in the Environment Is Being Replicated on the Skin Microbiome: Is This a Major Contributor to the Chronic Disease Epidemic?

There has been a catastrophic loss of biodiversity in ecosystems across the world. A similar crisis has been observed in the human gut microbiome, which has been linked to "all human diseases affecting westernized countries". This is of great importance because chronic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide and make up 90% of America's healthcare costs. Disease development is complex and multifactorial, but there is one part of the body's interlinked ecosystem that is often overlooked in discussions about whole-body health, and that is the skin microbiome. This is despite it being a crucial part of the immune, endocrine, and nervous systems and being continuously exposed to environmental stressors. Here we show that a parallel biodiversity loss of 30-84% has occurred on the skin of people in the developed world compared to our ancestors. Research has shown that dysbiosis of the skin microbiome has been linked to many common skin diseases and, more recently, that it could even play an active role in the development of a growing number of whole-body health problems, such as food allergies, asthma, cardiovascular diseases, and Parkinson's, traditionally thought unrelated to the skin. Damaged skin is now known to induce systemic inflammation, which is involved in many chronic diseases. We highlight that biodiversity loss is not only a common finding in dysbiotic ecosystems but also a type of dysbiosis. As a result, we make the case that biodiversity loss in the skin microbiome is a major contributor to the chronic disease epidemic. The link between biodiversity loss and dysbiosis forms the basis of this paper's focus on the subject. The key to understanding why biodiversity loss creates an unhealthy system could be highlighted by complex physics. We introduce entropy to help understand why biodiversity has been linked with ecosystem health and stability. Meanwhile, we also introduce ecosystems as being governed by "non-linear physics" principles-including chaos theory-which suggests that every individual part of any system is intrinsically linked and implies any disruption to a small part of the system (skin) could have a significant and unknown effect on overall system health (whole-body health). Recognizing the link between ecosystem health and human health allows us to understand how crucial it could be to maintain biodiversity across systems everywhere, from the macro-environment we inhabit right down to our body's microbiome. Further, in-depth research is needed so we can aid in the treatment of chronic diseases and potentially change how we think about our health. With millions of people currently suffering, research to help mitigate the crisis is of vital importance.

On the History of Ecosystem Dynamical Modeling: The Rise and Promises of Qualitative Models

Ecosystem modeling is a complex and multidisciplinary modeling problem which emerged in the 1950s. It takes advantage of the computational turn in sciences to better understand anthropogenic impacts and improve ecosystem management. For that purpose, ecosystem simulation models based on difference or differential equations were built. These models were relevant for studying dynamical phenomena and still are. However, they face important limitations in data-poor situations. As a response, several formal and non-formal qualitative dynamical modeling approaches were independently developed to overcome some limitations of the existing methods. Qualitative approaches allow studying qualitative dynamics as relevant abstractions of those provided by quantitative models (e.g., response to press perturbations). Each modeling framework can be viewed as a different assemblage of properties (e.g., determinism, stochasticity or synchronous update of variable values) designed to satisfy some scientific objectives. Based on four stated objectives commonly found in complex environmental sciences ((1) grasping qualitative dynamics, (2) making as few assumptions as possible about parameter values, (3) being explanatory and (4) being predictive), our objectives were guided by the wish to model complex and multidisciplinary issues commonly found in ecosystem modeling. We then discussed the relevance of existing modeling approaches and proposed the ecological discrete-event networks (EDEN) modeling framework for this purpose. The EDEN models propose a qualitative, discrete-event, partially synchronous and possibilistic view of ecosystem dynamics. We discussed each of these properties through ecological examples and existing analysis techniques for such models and showed how relevant they are for environmental science studies.

Considering intervention intensity in habitat restoration planning: An application to Pacific salmon

Habitat restoration is a key strategy for recovering imperiled species, and planning habitat restoration activities cost effectively can help advance recovery objectives. Habitat restoration planning involves decisions about where and when to undertake restoration, and what type of restoration to undertake. This article focuses on decisions about the amount of restoration to undertake for a given type, location, and time, termed intervention intensity. A return on investment framework is developed for incorporating intervention intensity into habitat restoration planning. The framework is then applied in the context of planning habitat restoration for Pacific salmon recovery as a case study. Results showed that no single intervention type or location dominated, and several returns to scale relationships emerged across the candidate interventions. Scenarios that considered interventions across multiple intensities outperformed single-intensity scenarios in terms of total benefits and cost effectiveness. These findings highlight the usefulness of exploratory return on investment analysis for prioritizing habitat restoration interventions, and underscore the importance of systematically considering how much restoration to undertake, in addition to what to do and where.

Prioritizing actions: spatial action maps for conservation

Spatial prioritization is a critical step in conservation planning, a process designed to ensure that limited resources are applied in ways that deliver the highest possible returns for biodiversity and human wellbeing. In practice, many spatial prioritizations fall short of their potential by focusing on places rather than actions, and by using data of snapshots of assets or threats rather than estimated impacts. We introduce spatial action mapping as an approach that overcomes these shortfalls. This approach produces a spatially explicit view of where and how much a given conservation action is likely to contribute to achieving stated conservation goals. Through seven case examples, we demonstrate simple to complex versions of how this method can be applied across local to global scales to inform decisions about a wide range of conservation actions and benefits. Spatial action mapping can support major improvements in efficient use of conservation resources and will reach its full potential as the quality of environmental, social, and economic datasets converge and conservation impact evaluations improve.