Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi

Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence

Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.

Species portfolio effects dominate seasonal zooplankton stabilization within a large temperate lake

Portfolio effects (PEs) in ecology refer to the suite of phenomenon where the temporal variation of aggregate ecosystem properties (i.e., abundance) is lower than that of their ecosystem components. An example of this is where differential responses of species to environmental variation generate stability at higher levels of ecological organization (e.g., local community, metapopulation, metacommunity). Most of the research examining such PEs has focused on spatial or interannual variation of ecosystems; however, as global change continues to alter seasonality and ecosystem functioning, understanding the underlying food web structures that help maintain stability at multiple spatial and temporal scales is critical to managing ecological systems. Recent advances investigating diversity-stability relationships has led to the development of frameworks that incorporate a metacommunity perspective which allows for the partitioning of PEs across organizational scales (i.e., local community, metapopulation, cross-community, metacommunity) from local population dynamics (total). This partitioning yields insights into the mechanisms that generate observed PEs in nature. Here, we employed one of these recently developed frameworks on a temporally (1986-1999, 2008-2019) and spatially (five sampling stations, local communities) extensive data set of zooplankton abundance (e.g., density) within a large temperate lake to investigate how temporal (seasonal) and spatial (among site) PEs influence stability within the zooplankton metacommunity. We found that seasonal asynchrony of different zooplankton species within local communities and across communities generated the vast majority of stabilization, while spatial (i.e., metapopulation) dynamics were more synchronous and contributed little to overall system stability. Furthermore, significantly positive diversity-asynchrony relationships at the total, local- and cross-community scales were found as asynchrony was positively correlated with local Shannon diversity. Last, a comparison of PEs over the time periods, during which significant local and global changes (i.e., climate warming, invasive species) have occurred suggests that PEs may be eroding, as increasingly synchronous dynamics and declining diversity in recent years have led to a rise in metacommunity variability. We end by arguing for the critical importance of understanding seasonally driven stabilizing mechanisms as local and global changes threaten to fundamentally alter seasonal signals with potentially strong implications for the structures that lend stability to ecosystems.

Site-specific temporal variation of population dynamics in subalpine endemic plant species

Endemic plants in high mountains are projected to be at high risk because of climate change. Temporal demographic variation is a major factor affecting population viability because plants often occur in small, isolated populations. Because isolated populations tend to exhibit genetic differentiation, analyzing temporal demographic variation in multiple populations is required for the management of high mountain endemic species. We examined the population dynamics of an endemic plant species, Primula farinosa subsp. modesta, in four subalpine sites over six years. Stage-based transition matrices were constructed, and temporal variation in the projected population growth rate (λ) was analyzed using life table response experiments (LTREs). The variation in λ was primarily explained by the site × year interaction rather than the main effects of the site and year. The testing sites exhibited inconsistent patterns in the LTRE contributions of the vital rates to the temporal deviation of λ. However, within sites, growth or stasis had significant negative correlations with temporal λ deviation. Negative correlations among the contributions of vital rates were also detected within the two testing sites, and the removal of the correlations alleviated temporal fluctuations in λ. The response of vital rates to yearly environmental fluctuations reduced the temporal variation of λ. Such effects manifested especially at two sites where plants exhibited higher plasticity than plants at other sites. Site-specific temporal variation implies that populations of high mountain species likely exhibit asynchronous temporal changes, and multiple sites need to be evaluated for their conservation.

Temporal variability in population and community dynamics

Populations and communities fluctuate in their overall numbers through time, and the magnitude of fluctuations in individual species may scale to communities. However, the composite variability at the community scale is expected to be tempered by opposing fluctuations in individual populations, a phenomenon often called the portfolio effect. Understanding population variability, how it scales to community variability, and the spatial scaling in this variability are pressing needs given shifting environmental conditions and community composition. We explore evidence for portfolio effects using null community simulations and a large collection of empirical community time series from the BioTIME database. Additionally, we explore the relative roles of habitat type and geographic location on population and community temporal variability. We find strong portfolio effects in our theoretical community model, but weak effects in empirical data, suggesting a role for shared environmental responses, interspecific competition, or a litany of other factors. Furthermore, we observe a clear latitudinal signal - and differences among habitat types - in population and community variability. Together, this highlights the need to develop realistic models of community dynamics, and hints at spatial, and underlying environmental, gradients in variability in both population and community dynamics.

Rules of Plant Species Ranges: Applications for Conservation Strategies

Earth is changing rapidly and so are many plant species’ ranges. Here, we synthesize eco-evolutionary patterns found in plant range studies and how knowledge of species ranges can inform our understanding of species conservation in the face of global change. We discuss whether general biogeographic “rules” are reliable and how they can be used to develop adaptive conservation strategies of native plant species across their ranges. Rules considered include (1) factors that set species range limits and promote range shifts; (2) the impact of biotic interactions on species range limits; (3) patterns of abundance and adaptive properties across species ranges; (4) patterns of gene flow and their implications for genetic rescue, and (5) the relationship between range size and conservation risk. We conclude by summarizing and evaluating potential species range rules to inform future conservation and management decisions. We also outline areas of research to better understand the adaptive capacity of plants under environmental change and the properties that govern species ranges. We advise conservationists to extend their work to specifically consider peripheral and novel populations, with a particular emphasis on small ranges. Finally, we call for a global effort to identify, synthesize, and analyze prevailing patterns or rules in ecology to help speed conservation efforts.

Environmental risk in an age of biotic impoverishment

The science underpinning biodiversity's importance to human well-being seems to be taken up little by environmental decision makers. Since the 1950s, ecological, evolutionary and environmental research has pointed to the importance of biodiversity as a significant factor influencing the stability and functioning of population, community, eco- and Earth-systems and the environmental services they provide. Despite its prominence and the tremendous contributions to our understanding of the natural world, this field of research, which we term 'bio-functional ecology', seems not to have had the impact it should. Biotic impoverishment, the loss of biodiversity across all scales and across all taxa, continues to worsen. We suggest that redirecting ecology's emphasis on ecological stability to a focus on environmental risk could help bring bio-functional ecology research more into the environmental arena. Rather than managing biodiversity as an agent of ecological stability, biodiversity could be managed as a natural capital asset in a portfolio of social, human, produced and financial capital assets. This would allow using portfolio theory to identify options for minimizing environmental risk while ensuring human well-being. In this essay, we argue that environmental risk more accurately captures people's motivation to preserve and manage biodiversity than does ecological stability. This redirection from stability to risk may provide greater clarity for decision makers and people in general as to why biodiversity is fundamentally linked to human well-being. In doing so, we can help curb the currently unabated spread of biotic impoverishment across the biosphere.

Genetic diversity and structure of Saussurea polylepis (Asteraceae) on continental islands of Korea: Implications for conservation strategies and management

Saussurea polylepis Nakai is an herbaceous perennial endemic to Korea and is highly restricted to several continental islands in the southwestern part of the Korean Peninsula. Given its very narrow geographical distribution, it is more vulnerable to anthropogenic activities and global climate changes than more widely distributed species. Despite the need for comprehensive genetic information for conservation and management, no such population genetic studies of S. polylepis have been conducted. In this study, genetic diversity and population structure were evaluated for 97 individuals from 5 populations (Gwanmaedo, Gageodo, Hongdo, Heusando, and Uido) using 19 polymorphic microsatellites. The populations were separated by a distance of 20–90 km. We found moderate levels of genetic diversity in S. polylepis (Ho = 0.42, He = 0.43). This may be due to long lifespans, outcrossing, and gene flow, despite its narrow range. High levels of gene flow (Nm = 1.76, mean Fst = 0.09), especially from wind-dispersed seeds, would contribute to low levels of genetic differentiation among populations. However, the small population size and reduced number of individuals in the reproductive phase of S. polylepis can be a major threat leading to inbreeding depression and genetic diversity loss. Bayesian cluster analysis revealed three significant structures at K = 3, consistent with DAPC and UPGMA. It is thought that sea level rise after the last glacial maximum may have acted as a geographical barrier, limiting the gene flow that would lead to distinct population structures. We proposed the Heuksando population, which is the largest island inhabited by S. polylepis, as a source population because of its large population size and high genetic diversity. Four management units (Gwanmaedo, Gageodo, Hongdo-Heuksando, and Uido) were suggested for conservation considering population size, genetic diversity, population structure, unique alleles, and geographical location (e.g., proximity).

Fine-scale spatial variation in fitness is comparable to disturbance-induced fluctuations in a fire-adapted species

The spatial scale at which demographic performance (e.g., net reproductive output) varies can profoundly influence landscape-level population growth and persistence, and many demographically pertinent processes such as species interactions and resource acquisition vary at fine scales. We compared the magnitude of demographic variation associated with fine-scale heterogeneity (<10 m), with variation due to larger-scale (>1 ha) fluctuations associated with fire disturbance. We used a spatially explicit model within an IPM modeling framework to evaluate the demographic importance of fine-scale variation. We used a measure of expected lifetime fruit production, E_F , that is assumed to be proportional to lifetime fitness. Demographic differences and their effects on E_F were assessed in a population of the herbaceous perennial Hypericum cumulicola (~2,600 individuals), within a patch of Florida rosemary scrub (400 × 80 m). We compared demographic variation over fine spatial scales to demographic variation between years across 6 yr after a fire. Values of E_F changed by orders of magnitude over <10 m. This variation in fitness over fine spatial scales (<10 m) is commensurate to postfire changes in fitness for this fire-adapted perennial. A life table response experiment indicated that fine-scale spatial variation in vital rates, especially survival, explains as much change in E_F as demographic changes caused by time-since-fire, a key driver in this system. Our findings show that environmental changes over a few tens of meters can have ecologically meaningful implications for population growth and extinction.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, density-dependent dispersal and collective behaviour: implications for salmon metapopulation robustness

The spatial dispersal of individuals plays an important role in the dynamics of populations, and is central to metapopulation theory. Dispersal provides connections within metapopulations, promoting demographic and evolutionary rescue, but may also introduce maladapted individuals, potentially lowering the fitness of recipient populations through introgression of heritable traits. To explore this dual nature of dispersal, we modify a well-established eco-evolutionary model of two locally adapted populations and their associated mean trait values, to examine recruiting salmon populations that are connected by density-dependent dispersal, consistent with collective migratory behaviour that promotes navigation. When the strength of collective behaviour is weak such that straying is effectively constant, we show that a low level of straying is associated with the highest gains in metapopulation robustness and that high straying serves to erode robustness. Moreover, we find that as the strength of collective behaviour increases, metapopulation robustness is enhanced, but this relationship depends on the rate at which individuals stray. Specifically, strong collective behaviour increases the presence of hidden low-density basins of attraction, which may serve to trap disturbed populations, and this is exacerbated by increased habitat heterogeneity. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that density-dependent straying and collective migratory behaviour may help metapopulations, such as in salmon, thrive in dynamic landscapes. Given the pervasive eco-evolutionary impacts of dispersal on metapopulations, these findings have important ramifications for the conservation of salmon metapopulations facing both natural and anthropogenic contemporary disturbances.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'.

High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species

It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits that can predict differences in sensitivity, which in turn can affect the reliability of projections of future climate change impacts. We investigate avian body condition responses to changes in six climatic variables and how consistent and generalisable these responses are both across and within species, using 21 years of data from 46 common passerines across 80 Dutch sites. We show that body condition decreases with warmer spring/early summer temperatures and increases with higher humidity, but other climate variables do not show consistent trends across species. In the future, body condition is projected to decrease by 2050, mainly driven by temperature effects. Strikingly, populations of the same species generally responded just as differently as populations of different species implying that a single species signal is not meaningful. Consequently, species-level traits did not explain interspecific differences in sensitivities, rather population-level traits were more important. The absence of a clear species signal in body condition responses implies that generalisation and identifying species for conservation prioritisation is problematic, which sharply contrasts conclusions of previous studies on the climate sensitivity of phenology.

Scale-dependent portfolio effects explain growth inflation and volatility reduction in landscape demography

Population demography is central to fundamental ecology and for predicting range shifts, decline of threatened species, and spread of invasive organisms. There is a mismatch between most demographic work, carried out on few populations and at local scales, and the need to predict dynamics at landscape and regional scales. Inspired by concepts from landscape ecology and Markowitz's portfolio theory, we develop a landscape portfolio platform to quantify and predict the behavior of multiple populations, scaling up the expectation and variance of the dynamics of an ensemble of populations. We illustrate this framework using a 35-y time series on gypsy moth populations. We demonstrate the demography accumulation curve in which the collective growth of the ensemble depends on the number of local populations included, highlighting a minimum but adequate number of populations for both regional-scale persistence and cross-scale inference. The attainable set of landscape portfolios further suggests tools for regional population management for both threatened and invasive species.