Ecological consequences of anomalies in atmospheric moisture and snowpack

Niches of three sympatric montane ground‐dwelling squirrels: Relative importance of climate, topography, and landcover

Species with different ecological niches will likely exhibit distinct responses to a changing environment. Differences in the magnitude of niche specialization may also indicate which species may be more vulnerable to environmental change, as many life‐history characteristics are known to affect climate change vulnerability. We characterized the niche space of three sympatric high‐elevation ground‐dwelling squirrels, yellow‐bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), and golden‐mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis), in the alpine and upper subalpine regions of the Sierra Nevada in California. We used 5879 observations of individual squirrels, collected from 4 years (2009–2012) of transect survey data, to quantify which ecogeographical variable types (climate, topography, or landcover) were most important in defining the niche of each species. We conducted Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to quantify the niche and generate indices of “marginality” (magnitude of selection) and “specialization” (narrowness of niche space). All three species demonstrated differential use of niche space when compared to the available niche space. Moreover, the relative importance of the variables shaping the niche differed among these species. For example, the presence of meadows was important in defining the niche for U. beldingi and M. flaviventer, but the presence of conifers was important to C. lateralis. Precipitation was important in defining the niche for all three species, positively so for U. beldingi, and negatively for the other two species. The niche breadth of these three species was also positively associated with geographic range size. Mammals in high‐elevation mountain systems often are perceived as vulnerable to climate shifts, but our results underscore the importance of also including non‐climate‐based factors in defining the niche. The overall magnitude of niche selection for all three species was driven by a combination of topographic, climatic, and landcover factors; thus, efforts to forecast areas where these species can persist in the future need to evaluate from more than just a climatic perspective.

Genome-wide analysis reveals associations between climate and regional patterns of adaptive divergence and dispersal in American pikas

Understanding the role of adaptation in species' responses to climate change is important for evaluating the evolutionary potential of populations and informing conservation efforts. Population genomics provides a useful approach for identifying putative signatures of selection and the underlying environmental factors or biological processes that may be involved. Here, we employed a population genomic approach within a space-for-time study design to investigate the genetic basis of local adaptation and reconstruct patterns of movement across rapidly changing environments in a thermally sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Using genotypic data at 49,074 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we analyzed patterns of genome-wide diversity, structure, and migration along three independent elevational transects located at the northern extent (Tweedsmuir South Provincial Park, British Columbia, Canada) and core (North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA) of the Cascades lineage. We identified 899 robust outlier SNPs within- and among-transects. Of those annotated to genes with known function, many were linked with cellular processes related to climate stress including ATP-binding, ATP citrate synthase activity, ATPase activity, hormone activity, metal ion-binding, and protein-binding. Moreover, we detected evidence for contrasting patterns of directional migration along transects across geographic regions that suggest an increased propensity for American pikas to disperse among lower elevation populations at higher latitudes where environments are generally cooler. Ultimately, our data indicate that fine-scale demographic patterns and adaptive processes may vary among populations of American pikas, providing an important context for evaluating biotic responses to climate change in this species and other alpine-adapted mammals.

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species' sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017-2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species' geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species' range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Is the grass always greener? Land surface phenology reveals differences in peak and season-long vegetation productivity responses to climate and management

Vegetation phenology-the seasonal timing and duration of vegetative phases-is controlled by spatiotemporally variable contributions of climatic and environmental factors plus additional potential influence from human management. We used land surface phenology derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and climate data to examine variability in vegetation productivity and phenological dates from 1989 to 2014 in the U.S. Northwestern Plains, a region with notable spatial heterogeneity in climate, vegetation, and land use. We first analyzed interannual trends in six phenological measures as a baseline. We then demonstrated how including annual-resolution predictors can provide more nuanced insights into measures of phenology between plant communities and across the ecoregion. Across the study area, higher annual precipitation increased both peak and season-long productivity. In contrast, higher mean annual temperatures tended to increase peak productivity but for the majority of the study area decreased season-long productivity. Annual precipitation and temperature had strong explanatory power for productivity-related phenology measures but predicted date-based measures poorly. We found that relationships between climate and phenology varied across the region and among plant communities and that factors such as recovery from disturbance and anthropogenic management also contributed in certain regions. In sum, phenological measures did not respond ubiquitously nor covary in their responses. Nonclimatic dynamics can decouple phenology from climate; therefore, analyses including only interannual trends should not assume climate alone drives patterns. For example, models of areas exhibiting greening or browning should account for climate, anthropogenic influence, and natural disturbances. Investigating multiple aspects of phenology to describe growing-season dynamics provides a richer understanding of spatiotemporal patterns that can be used for predicting ecosystem responses to future climates and land-use change. Such understanding allows for clearer interpretation of results for conservation, wildlife, and land management.

Temporal vs. spatial variation in stress-associated metabolites within a population of climate-sensitive small mammals

Temporal variation in stress might signify changes in an animal's internal or external environment, while spatial variation in stress might signify variation in the quality of the habitats that individual animals experience. Habitat-induced variations in stress might be easiest to detect in highly territorial animals, and especially in species that do not take advantage of common strategies for modulating habitat-induced stress, such as migration (escape in space) or hibernation (escape in time). Spatial and temporal variation in response to potential stressors has received little study in wild animals, especially at scales appropriate for relating stress to specific habitat characteristics. Here, we use the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a territorial small mammal, to investigate stress response within and among territories. For individually territorial animals such as pikas, differences in habitat quality should lead to differences in stress exhibited by territory owners. We indexed stress using stress-associated hormone metabolites in feces collected non-invasively from pika territories every 2 weeks from June to September 2018. We hypothesized that differences in territory quality would lead to spatial differences in mean stress and that seasonal variation in physiology or the physical environment would lead to synchronous variation across territories through time. We used linear mixed-effects models to explore spatiotemporal variation in stress using fixed effects of day-of-year and broad habitat characteristics (elevation, aspect, site), as well as local variation in habitat characteristics hypothesized to affect territory quality for this saxicolous species (talus depth, clast size, available forage types). We found that temporal variation within territories was greater than spatial variation among territories, suggesting that shared seasonal stressors are more influential than differences in individual habitat quality. This approach could be used in other wildlife studies to refine our understanding of habitat quality and its effect on individual stress levels as a driver of population decline.

Current and time-lagged effects of climate on innate immunity in two sympatric snake species

Changing environments result in alterations at all levels of biological organization, from genetics to physiology to demography. The increasing frequency of droughts worldwide is associated with higher temperatures and reduced precipitation that can impact population persistence via effects on individual immune function and survival.We examined the effects of annual climate variation on immunity in two sympatric species of garter snakes from four populations in California over a seven-year period that included the record-breaking drought.We examined three indices of innate immunity: bactericidal competence (BC), natural antibodies (NABs), and complement-mediated lysis (CL).Precipitation was the only climatic variable explaining variation in immune function: spring precipitation of the current year was positively correlated to Thamnophis sirtalis BC and NABs, whereas spring precipitation of the previous year was positively correlated to T. elegans BC and NABs. This suggests that T. elegans experiences a physiological time-lag in response to reduced precipitation, which may reflect lack of capital for investment in immunity in the year following a dry year.In general, our findings demonstrate compelling evidence that climate can influence wild populations through effects on physiological processes, suggesting that physiological indices such as these may offer valuable opportunities for monitoring the effects of climate.

Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought

Recent snow droughts associated with unusually warm winters are predicted to increase in frequency and affect species dependent upon snowpack for winter survival. Changes in populations of some cold-adapted species have been attributed to heat stress or indirect effects on habitat from unusually warm summers, but little is known about the importance of winter weather to population dynamics and how responses to snow drought vary among sympatric species. We evaluated changes in abundance of hoary marmots (Marmota caligata) over a period that included a year of record-low snowpack to identify mechanisms associated with weather and snowpack. To consider interspecies comparisons, our analysis used the same a priori model set as a concurrent study that evaluated responses of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) to weather and snowpack in the same study area of North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA. We hypothesized that marmot abundance reflected mechanisms related to heat stress, cold stress, cold exposure without an insulating snowpack, snowpack duration, atmospheric moisture, growing-season precipitation, or select combinations of these mechanisms. Changes in marmot abundances included a 74% decline from 2007 to 2016 and were best explained by an interaction of chronic dryness with exposure to acute cold without snowpack in winter. Physiological stress during hibernation from exposure to cold, dry air appeared to be the most likely mechanism of change in marmot abundance. Alternative mechanisms associated with changes to winter weather, including early emergence from hibernation or altered vegetation dynamics, had less support. A post hoc assessment of vegetative phenology and productivity did not support vegetation dynamics as a primary driver of marmot abundance across years. Although marmot and pika abundances were explained by strikingly similar models over periods of many years, details of the mechanisms involved likely differ between species because pika abundances increased in areas where marmots declined. Such differences may lead to diverging geographic distributions of these species as global change continues.

Conservation status of American pikas (Ochotona princeps)

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is commonly perceived as a species that is at high risk of extinction due to climate change. The purpose of this review is two-fold: to evaluate the claim that climate change is threatening pikas with extinction, and to summarize the conservation status of the American pika. Most American pikas inhabit major cordilleras, such as the Rocky Mountain, Sierra Nevada, and Cascade ranges. Occupancy of potential pika habitat in these ranges is uniformly high and no discernible climate signal has been found that discriminates between the many occupied and relatively few unoccupied sites that have been recently surveyed. Pikas therefore are thriving across most of their range. The story differs in more marginal parts of the species range, primarily across the Great Basin, where a higher percentage of available habitat is unoccupied. A comprehensive review of Great Basin pikas revealed that occupied sites, sites of recent extirpation, and old sites, were regularly found within the same geographic and climatic space as extant sites, and suggested that pikas in the Great Basin tolerated a broader set of habitat and climatic conditions than previously understood. Studies of a small subset of extirpated sites in the Great Basin and in California found that climate variables (most notably measures of hot temperature) were associated more often with extirpated sites than occupied sites. Importantly, upward contraction of the lower elevation boundary also was found at some sites. However, models that incorporated variables other than climate (such as availability of upslope talus habitat) often were better predictors of site persistence. Many extirpations occurred on small habitat patches, which were subject to stochastic extinction, as informed by a long-term pika metapopulation study in Bodie, California. In addition, several sites may have been compromised by cattle grazing or other anthropogenic factors. In contrast, several low, hot sites (Bodie, Mono Craters, Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve, Lava Beds National Monument, Columbia River Gorge) retain active pika populations, demonstrating the adaptive capacity and resilience of pikas in response to adverse environmental conditions. Pikas cope with warm temperatures by retreating into cool interstices of their talus habitat and augment their restricted daytime foraging with nocturnal activity. Pikas exhibit significant flexibility in their foraging tactics and are highly selective in their choice of available vegetation. The trait that places pikas at greatest risk from climate change is their poor dispersal capability. Dispersal is more restricted in hotter environments, and isolated low-elevation sites that become extirpated are unlikely to be recolonized in a warming climate. The narrative that American pikas are going extinct appears to be an overreach. Pikas are doing well across most of their range, but there are limited, low-elevation losses that are likely to be permanent in what is currently marginal pika habitat. The resilience of pikas in the face of climate change, and their ability or inability to persist in marginal, hot environments, will continue to contribute to our understanding of the impact of climate change on individual species.