Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?

Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change

Herbivorous insects consume a large proportion of the energy flow in terrestrial ecosystems and play a major role in the dynamics of plant populations and communities. However, high-resolution, quantitative predictions of the global patterns of insect herbivory and their potential underlying drivers remain elusive. Here, we compiled and analyzed a dataset consisting of 9,682 records of the severity of insect herbivory from across natural communities worldwide to quantify its global patterns and environmental determinants. Global mapping revealed strong spatial variation in insect herbivory at the global scale, showing that insect herbivory did not significantly vary with latitude for herbaceous plants but increased with latitude for woody plants. We found that the cation-exchange capacity in soil was a main predictor of levels of herbivory on herbaceous plants, while climate largely determined herbivory on woody plants. We next used well-established scenarios for future climate change to forecast how spatial patterns of insect herbivory may be expected to change with climate change across the world. We project that herbivore pressure will intensify on herbaceous plants worldwide but would likely only increase in certain biomes (e.g., northern coniferous forests) for woody plants. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the spatial pattern of insect herbivory, which enables a more accurate prediction of the vulnerabilities of plant communities and ecosystem functions in the Anthropocene.

Predicting the seasonal flight activity of Myzus persicae, the main aphid vector of Virus Yellows in sugar beet

BACKGROUND

Virus Yellows (VY), a disease caused by several aphid-borne viruses, is a major threat to the global sugar beet production. Following the ban of neonicotinoid-based seed treatments against aphids in Europe, increased efforts are needed to monitor and forecast aphid population spread during the sugar beet growing season. In particular, predicting aphid flight seasonal activity could allow anticipation of the timing and intensity of crop colonisation and contribute to the proper implementation of management methods. Forecasts should be made early enough to assess risk, but can be updated as the season progresses to refine management. Based on a long-term suction-trap dataset gathered between 1978 and 2014, we built and evaluated a set of models to predict the flight activity features of the main VY vector, Myzus persicae, at any location in the French sugar beet production area (c. 4 × 105  ha). Flight onset dates, length of flight period and cumulative abundance of flying aphids were predicted using climatic and land-use predictors as well as geographical position.

RESULTS

Our predictions outperformed current models published in the literature. The importance of the predictor variables varied according to the predicted flight feature but winter and early spring temperature always played a major role. Forecasts based on temperature were made more accurate by adding predictors related to aphid winter reservoirs. In addition, updating the model parameters to take advantage of new weather data acquired during the season improved the flight forecast.

CONCLUSION

Our models can be used as a tool for the mitigation in sugar beet crops. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Water availability and plant-herbivore interactions

Water is essential to plant growth and drives plant evolution and interactions with other organisms such as herbivores. However, water availability fluctuates, and these fluctuations are intensified by climate change. How plant water availability influences plant-herbivore interactions in the future is an important question in basic and applied ecology. Here we summarize and synthesize the recent discoveries on the impact of water availability on plant antiherbivore defense ecology and the underlying physiological processes. Water deficit tends to enhance plant resistance and escape traits (i.e. early phenology) against herbivory but negatively affects other defense strategies, including indirect defense and tolerance. However, exceptions are sometimes observed in specific plant-herbivore species pairs. We discuss the effect of water availability on species interactions associated with plants and herbivores from individual to community levels and how these interactions drive plant evolution. Although water stress and many other abiotic stresses are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency due to climate change, we identify a significant lack of study on the interactive impact of additional abiotic stressors on water-plant-herbivore interactions. This review summarizes critical knowledge gaps and informs possible future research directions in water-plant-herbivore interactions.

Wet and dry extremes reduce arthropod biomass independently of leaf phenology in the wet tropics

Warming temperatures are increasing rainfall extremes, yet arthropod responses to climatic fluctuations remain poorly understood. Here, we used spatiotemporal variation in tropical montane climate as a natural experiment to compare the importance of biotic versus abiotic drivers in regulating arthropod biomass. We combined intensive field data on arthropods, leaf phenology and in situ weather across a 1700-3100 m elevation and rainfall gradient, along with desiccation-resistance experiments and multi-decadal modelling. We found limited support for biotic drivers with weak increases in some herbivorous taxa on shrubs with new leaves, but no landscape-scale effects of leaf phenology, which tracked light and cloud cover. Instead, rainfall explained extensive interannual variability with maximum biomass at intermediate rainfall (130 mm month^-1 ) as both 3 months of high and low rainfall reduced arthropods by half. Based on 50 years of regional rainfall, our dynamic arthropod model predicted shifts in the timing of biomass maxima within cloud forests before plant communities transition to seasonally deciduous dry forests (mean annual rainfall 1000-2500 mm vs. <800 mm). Rainfall magnitude was the primary driver, but during high solar insolation, the 'drying power of air' (VPD_max ) reduced biomass within days contributing to drought related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Highlighting risks from drought, experiments demonstrated community-wide susceptibility to desiccation except for some caterpillars in which melanin-based coloration appeared to reduce the effects of evaporative drying. Overall, we provide multiple lines of evidence that several months of heavy rain or drought reduce arthropod biomass independently of deep-rooted plants with the potential to destabilize insectivore food webs.

Precipitation change accentuates or reverses temperature effects on aphid dispersal

Global temperatures are generally increasing, and this is leading to a well documented advancement and extension of seasonal activity of many pest insects. Effects of changing precipitation have received less attention, but might be complex because rain and snow are increasing in some places but decreasing in others. This raises the possibility that altered precipitation could accentuate, or even reverse, the effects of rising temperatures on pest outbreaks. We used >592 K aphid suction-trap captures over 15 years, in the heavily farmed central USA, to examine how the activity of Aphis glycines (soybean aphid), Rhopalosiphum maidis (corn aphid), and Rhopalosiphum padi (bird cherry-oat aphid) changed with variation in both temperature and precipitation. Increasing precipitation caused late-season flight activity of A. glycines and early-season activity of R. padi to shift earlier, while increasing temperature did the same for early-season activity of A. glycines and R. maidis. In these cases, precipitation and temperature exhibited directionally similar, but independent, effects. However, precipitation sometimes mediated temperature effects in complex ways. At relatively low temperatures, greater precipitation generally caused late-season flights of R. maidis to occur earlier. However, this pattern was reversed at higher temperatures with precipitation delaying late-season activity. In contrast, greater precipitation delayed peak flights of R. padi at lower temperatures, but caused them to occur earlier at higher temperatures. So, in these two cases the interactive effects of precipitation on temperature were mirror images of one another. When projecting future aphid flight phenology, models that excluded precipitation covariates consistently underpredicted the degree of phenological advance for A. glycines and R. padi, and underpredicted the degree of phenological delay for R. maidis under expected future climates. Overall, we found broad evidence that changing patterns of aphid flight phenology could only be understood by considering both temperature and precipitation changes. In our study region, temperature and precipitation are expected to increase in tandem, but these correlations will be reversed elsewhere. This reinforces the need to include both main and interactive effects of precipitation and temperature when seeking to accurately predict how pest pressure will change with a changing climate.

Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation

Simple Summary

Helicoverpa zea is one of the most destructive lepidopteran agricultural pests in the world and can disperse long distances both with and without human transportation. It is listed in the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China but has not yet been reported in China. On the basis of 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, we predicted the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The results showed that the PGDs of H. zea under the current climate are large in China. Future climate changes under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for both the 2030s and 2050s will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea. Helicoverpa zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to the host plants of H. zea and containers harboring this pest.

Abstract

Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 10⁴ km², and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.

The complexity of global change and its effects on insects

Global change includes multiple overlapping and interacting drivers: 1) climate change, 2) land use change, 3) novel chemicals, and 4) the increased global transport of organisms. Recent studies have documented the complex and counterintuitive effects of these drivers on the behavior, life histories, distributions, and abundances of insects. This complexity arises from the indeterminacy of indirect, non-additive and combined effects. While there is wide consensus that global change is reorganizing communities, the available data are limited. As the pace of anthropogenic changes outstrips our ability to document its impacts, ongoing change may lead to increasingly unpredictable outcomes. This complexity and uncertainty argue for renewed efforts to address the fundamental drivers of global change.

Environmental Variables Influencing Five Speyeria (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Species' Potential Distributions of Suitable Habitat in the Eastern United States

Five closely related species of greater fritillaries occur in North America east of the Mississippi River: regal fritillary (Speyeria idalia Drury [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana Cramer [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), great spangled fritillary (Speyeria cybele Fabricius [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), Atlantis fritillary (Speyeria atlantis Edwards [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), and Aphrodite fritillary (Speyeria aphrodite Fabricius [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]). The regal fritillary and Diana fritillary are species of concern, whereas the great spangled fritillary, Atlantis fritillary, and Aphrodite fritillary are relatively abundant within their respective ranges. However, the Atlantis fritillary and Aphrodite fritillary have experienced severe population declines within the last few decades. We created ecological niche models for these five species by combining each species' known occurrences with climate and environmental variables to identify important response variables and determine the potential distribution of suitable habitat for each species. Important climate variables differed among species, although minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for great spangled, Atlantis, and Aphrodite fritillaries. The regal fritillary responded the most to temperature seasonality, whereas the Diana fritillary responded to maximum temperature of warmest month and the great spangled fritillary responded to annual precipitation. Land use was important for all species except the regal fritillary and average annual relative humidity was important for all species except the great spangled fritillary. This study highlights the different climate and habitat needs for greater fritillary species with important implications for how each species is expected to be impacted by climate change. We also demonstrate the value of citizen science and photo sharing websites for providing important data for evaluating species distributions.

The direct and indirect effects of extreme climate events on insects

Extreme climate events are predicted to increase in the future, which will have significant effects on insect biodiversity. Research into this area has been rapidly expanding, but knowledge gaps still exist. We conducted a review of the literature to provide a synthesis of extreme climate events on insects and identify future areas of research. In our review, we asked the following questions: 1) What are the direct and indirect mechanisms that extreme climate events affect individual insects? 2) What are the effects of extreme climate events on insect populations and demography? 3) What are the implications of the extreme climate events effects on insect communities? Drought was among the most frequently described type of extreme climate event affecting insects, as well as the effects of temperature extremes and extreme temperature variation. Our review explores the factors that determine the sensitivity or resilience to climate extremes for individuals, populations, and communities. We also identify areas of future research to better understand the role of extreme climate events on insects including effects on non-trophic interactions, alteration of population dynamics, and mediation of the functional the trait set of communities. Many insect species are under threat from global change and extreme climate events are a contributing factor. Biologists and policy makers should consider the role of extreme events in their work to mitigate the loss of biodiversity and delivery of ecosystem services by insects.

How big is big enough? Surprising responses of a semiarid grassland to increasing deluge size

Climate change has intensified the hydrologic cycle globally, increasing the magnitude and frequency of large precipitation events, or deluges. Dryland ecosystems are expected to be particularly responsive to increases in deluge size, as their ecological processes are largely dependent on distinct soil moisture pulses. To better understand how increasing deluge size will affect ecosystem function, we conducted a field experiment in a native semiarid shortgrass steppe (Colorado, USA). We quantified ecological responses to a range of deluge sizes, from moderate to extreme, with the goal of identifying response patterns and thresholds beyond which ecological processes would not increase further (saturate). Using a replicated regression approach, we imposed single deluges that ranged in size from 20 to 120 mm (82.3rd to >99.9th percentile of historical event size) on undisturbed grassland plots. We quantified pre- and postdeluge responses in soil moisture, soil respiration, and canopy greenness, as well as leaf water potential, growth, and flowering of the dominant grass species (Bouteloua gracilis). We also measured end of season above- and belowground net primary production (ANPP, BNPP). As expected, this water-limited ecosystem responded strongly to the applied deluges, but surprisingly, most variables increased linearly with deluge size. We found little evidence for response thresholds within the range of deluge sizes imposed, at least during this dry year. Instead, response patterns reflected the linear increase in the duration of elevated soil moisture (2-22 days) with increasing event size. Flowering of B. gracilis and soil respiration responded particularly strongly to deluge size (14- and 4-fold increases, respectively), as did ANPP and BNPP (~60% increase for both). Overall, our results suggest that this semiarid grassland will respond positively and linearly to predicted increases in deluge size, and that event sizes may need to exceed historical magnitudes, or occur during wet years, before responses saturate.

Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?

Changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of rainfall events are among the abiotic effects predicted under anthropogenic global warming. Heavy downpours may profoundly affect the development and survival of small organisms such as insects. Here, we examined direct (physically on the insects) and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of simulated downpours on the performance of caterpillars of two lepidopteran herbivores (Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae) feeding on black mustard (Brassica nigra) plants. Host plants were exposed to different rainfall regimes both before and while caterpillars were feeding on the plants in an attempt to separate direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of rainfall on insect survival and development. In two independent experiments, downpours were simulated as a single long (20 min) or as three short (5 min) daily events. Downpours had a strong negative direct effect on the survival of P. xylostella, but not on that of P. brassicae. Direct effects of downpours consistently increased development time of both herbivore species, whereas effects on body mass depended on herbivore species and downpour frequency. Caterpillar disturbance by rain and recorded microclimatic cooling by 5°C may explain extended immature development. Indirect, plant-mediated effects of downpours on the herbivores were generally small, despite the fact that sugar concentrations were reduced and herbivore induction of secondary metabolites (glucosinolates) was enhanced in plants exposed to rain. Changes in the frequency of precipitation events due to climate change may impact the survival and development of insect herbivores differentially. Broader effects of downpours on insects and other arthropods up the food chain could seriously impair and disrupt trophic interactions, ultimately destabilizing communities.