Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle

Prediction of potential invasion of two weeds of the genus Avena in Asia under climate change based on Maxent

Avena sterilis L. (A. sterilis) and Avena ludoviciana Dur. (A. ludoviciana) are extremely invasive weeds with strong competitive ability and multiple transmission routes. Both species can invade a variety of dryland crops, including wheat, corn, and beans. Asia, as the world's major food-producing continent, will experience significant losses to agricultural production if it is invaded by these weeds on a large scale. This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to map the distribution of suitable habitats of the two species in Asia under climate change conditions. The constructed model comprised four levels, with a total of 25 index-level indicator factors used to evaluate the invasion risk of the two species. The results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats for both Avena species was highly dependent on precipitation and temperature. Under climate warming conditions, although overall the total suitable area is predicted to decrease compared to the current period, there are still moderately or highly suitable areas. Asian countries need to provide early warning for areas with significant increases in moderate and highly suitable zones for these two species of weeds under the background of climate change. If there is already an invaded area or if the suitability of the original area is increased, this should be closely monitored, and control measures should be taken to prevent further spread and deterioration.

Allee effects introduced by density dependent phenology

We consider a hybrid model of an annual species with the timing of a stage transition governed by density dependent phenology. We show that the model can produce a strong Allee effect as well as overcompensation. The density dependent probability distribution that describes how population emergence is spread over time plays an important role in determining population dynamics. Our extensive numerical simulations with a density dependent gamma distribution indicate very rich population dynamics, from stable/unstable equilibria, limit cycles, to chaos.

Phenological evolution in annual plants under light competition, changes in the growth season and mass loss

Flowering time is an important phenological trait in plants and a critical determinant of the success of pollination and fruit or seed development, with immense significance for agriculture as it directly affects crop yield and overall food production. Shifts in the growth season, changes in the growth season duration and changes in the production rate are environmental processes (potentially linked to climate change) that can lead to changes in flowering time in the long-term due to selection. In contrast, biomass loss (due to, for example, herbivory or diseases) can have profound consequences for plant mass production and food security. We model the effects of these environmental processes on the flowering time evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) of annual plants and the potential consequences for reproductive output. Our model recapitulates previous theoretical results linked to climate change and light competition and makes novel predictions about the effects of biomass loss on the evolution of flowering time. Our analysis elucidates how both the magnitude and direction of the evolutionary response can depend on whether biomass loss occurs during the earlier vegetative phase or during the later reproductive phase and on whether or not plants are adapted to grow in dense, competitive environments. Specifically, light competition generates an asymetric effect of mass loss on flowering time even when loss is indiscriminate (equal rates), with vegetative mass loss having a stronger effect on flowering time (resulting in greater ESS change) and final reproductive output.

Climate warming increases insect-driven seed removal of two elaiosome-bearing invasive thistle species

Ants and other insects are often a source of localized secondary dispersal for wind-dispersed plants and thus play an important ecological role in their spatial dynamics, but there is limited information on how climate change will affect such dispersal processes. Here, we use field experiments to investigate how climate warming affects seed removal, as this initiation of movement represents the first step in insect-driven secondary dispersal. Our results indicate that for the invasive thistles Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides, increased growing temperature influences seed attractiveness to insect dispersers, with seeds from maternal plants grown at temperatures 0.6°C above ambient removed by insect dispersers at higher rates than their unwarmed counterparts. We also observe that seed elaiosomes in these two species play an important role in dispersal, as seeds without elaiosomes were significantly less likely to be removed over the same period. Significant interactions between elaiosome presence/absence and warming treatment were also observed, though only for C. acanthoides, with the boost in seed removal from warming dampened when the elaiosome was present compared to when it was absent. These findings provide evidence that climate warming may alter aspects of dispersal such as seed removal by secondary dispersers, with potential ramifications for dispersal in future climates since seed-bearing plants around the world may be subject to increased growing temperatures, and many of these plant species bear elaiosomes and experience seed dispersal by insects.

Investigating the phenology and interactions of competitive plant species co-occurring with invasive Lantana camara in Indian Himalayan Region

Invasive plant species are considered one of the significant drivers of habitat loss, leading to biodiversity loss. They have also been observed to alter the local ecology, resulting in a decline of native flora. The management of invasive species is widely recognised as one of the most severe challenges to biodiversity conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) considers Lantana camara, as one of the ten worst weeds. Over time, native and indigenous species may evolve to co-exist or compete with invasive species, reducing invader fitness. It is observed that species competition fluctuates throughout environmental gradients, life phases, and abundances. Hence, competition outcome is very context-dependent. To address this challenge, we conducted a comprehensive study in three phases: we identified native species coexisting with Lantana in their natural habitats in the Doon Valley (Phase I) and documented the phenotypic traits of selected coexisting species using the Landmark BBCH (Biologische Bun-desantalt, Bundessortenamt und Chemische Industrie) scale, revealing the phenological growth patterns of selected co-existing species (Phase II). This was followed by conducting pot (Phase IIIa) and field (Phase IIIb) experiments to study the interactions between them. Notably, Justicia adhatoda, Broussonetia papyrifera, Pongamia pinnata, Urtica dioica and Bauhinia variegata demonstrated promising results in both pot and field conditions. Furthermore, after the mechanical removal of Lantana and prior to the plantation in the field experiments, four native grass species were introduced using the seed ball method. Among these, Pennisetum pedicellatum and Sorghum halpense exhibited prompt regeneration and effectively colonised the field, densely covering the cleared area. The study provides a comprehensive management plan for the restoration of Lantana affected areas through competition using native species. This study utilizes phenological assessment for native plant selection using reclamation from native grasses and proposes a management plan for combating invasive Lantana.

Elevated temperatures shift flower head height distributions and seed dispersal patterns in two invasive thistle species

Climate change may significantly alter how organisms disperse, with implications for population spread and species management. Wind-dispersed plants have emerged as a useful study system for investigating how climate change affects dispersal, although studies modeling wind dispersal often assume propagules are released from a single point on an individual. This simplifying assumption, while useful, may misestimate dispersal. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on dispersal distances and spread rates, examining how these quantities shift when accounting for all points of seed release on an individual. Using the wind-dispersed invasive thistles Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides, we quantify temperature-driven shifts in the distribution of flower head heights using a passive warming field experiment, and estimate how these shifts affect dispersal using the Wald analytical long-distance (WALD) model; for C. nutans, we use existing demographic data to simulate how these shifts affect population spread rates. We also compare dispersal distances for both warmed and ambient temperature plants, considering the entire distribution of flower head heights versus the common assumption of point-source seed release at the maximum height. For experimentally grown individuals, an ~0.6°C higher growing temperature increased mean and maximum flower head height by 14.1 cm (15.0%) and 14.0 cm (13.2%), respectively, in C. nutans and by 21.2 cm (26.6%) and 31.8 cm (36.7%), respectively, in C. acanthoides. Seeds from warmed individuals were more likely to exceed a given dispersal distance than those from their unwarmed counterparts; warmed C. nutans and C. acanthoides seeds were on average 1.36 and 1.71 times as likely, respectively, to travel 10 m or more in dispersal simulations, with this disparity increasing at longer dispersal distances. For C. nutans, increased growing temperatures boosted simulated rates of population spread by 42.2%, while assuming dispersal from a maximum height point source rather than the true distribution of flower head heights increased simulated spread by up to 28.5%. Our results not only demonstrate faster population spread under increased temperatures, but also have substantial implications for modeling such spread, as the common simplifying assumption of dispersal from a single maximum height source may substantially overestimate spread rates.

How ecological and evolutionary theory expanded the 'ideal weed' concept

Since Baker's attempt to characterize the 'ideal weed' over 50 years ago, ecologists have sought to identify features of species that predict invasiveness. Several of Baker's 'ideal weed' traits are well studied, and we now understand that many traits can facilitate different components of the invasion process, such as dispersal traits promoting transport or selfing enabling establishment. However, the effects of traits on invasion are context dependent. The traits promoting invasion in one community or at one invasion stage may inhibit invasion of other communities or success at other invasion stages, and the benefits of any given trait may depend on the other traits possessed by the species. Furthermore, variation in traits among populations or species is the result of evolution. Accordingly, evolution both prior to and after invasion may determine invasion outcomes. Here, we review how our understanding of the ecology and evolution of traits in invasive plants has developed since Baker's original efforts, resulting from empirical studies and the emergence of new frameworks and ideas such as community assembly theory, functional ecology, and rapid adaptation. Looking forward, we consider how trait-based approaches might inform our understanding of less-explored aspects of invasion biology ranging from invasive species responses to climate change to coevolution of invaded communities.

Stage-mediated priority effects and season lengths shape long-term competition dynamics

The relative arrival time of species can affect their interactions and thus determine which species persist in a community. Although this phenomenon, called priority effect, is widespread in natural communities, it is unclear how it depends on the length of growing season. Using a seasonal stage-structured model, we show that differences in stages of interacting species could generate priority effects by altering the strength of stabilizing and equalizing coexistence mechanisms, changing outcomes between exclusion, coexistence and positive frequency dependence. However, these priority effects are strongest in systems with just one or a few generations per season and diminish in systems where many overlapping generations per season dilute the importance of stage-specific interactions. Our model reveals a novel link between the number of generations in a season and the consequences of priority effects, suggesting that consequences of phenological shifts driven by climate change should depend on specific life histories of organisms.

What Makes a Good Plant Invader?

We explored traits that promote plant invasions. External factors affecting invasion success consist of various abiotic and biotic constraints. How well plants perform under those depends on multiple characteristics, such as life history traits, genetic variation patterns, competitive and dispersal abilities, phenotypic plasticity, resistance, tolerance, and possibly allelopathic interactions. Since the introduction of invasive species is often connected with humans, their geographical distribution and differentiation may not reflect adaptation. However, a lack of adaptation may be compensated for by repeated introductions via mixing genotypes from multiple populations or through novel mutations. As a case study, we used data from the Global Invasive Species Database of IUCN and attempted to reveal factors contributing to invasiveness. The most prevalent features are that the dispersal is strongly human assisted, many species are used as ornamentals, disturbed habitats are favored, and most species are perennial. Distribution features show that the worst invasive species typically have a narrower native distribution, but both groups, i.e., most serious invasive and other listed invasive species, have commonly developed a multicontinental distribution. The change in the multicontinental distribution from 6% to 63% in most serious invasive species reflects their effectiveness in global dispersal and establishment. High proportions of invasive species in both groups have mixed reproduction systems, i.e., they have the ability to propagate both sexually and asexually (57% and 50%, respectively). This provides flexibility for spreading and establishment. A lower proportion of the worst invasive species was mainly/only sexual (23%, often hermaphrodites) when compared to other invasive plants (40%). In the case of sexual reproduction, hermaphroditism combined with self-compatibility may enhance invasiveness, since selfing allows fertilization and recombination even under low population densities. Overall, the ability for asexual propagation and, in the case of sexuality, hermaphroditism, is an asset in the invasion process.

Assessing risk from invasive alien plants in China: Reconstructing invasion history and estimating distribution patterns of Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii

INTRODUCTION

The establishment of invasive alien plants (IAPs) is primarily driven by climate warming and human activities, and their populations have a negative impact on agricultural economics, ecological systems, and human health. Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii are critical IAPs in China because they reduce the quality of cereal grains and decrease wheat yields. Lolium temulentum is a winter-temperate weed that spreads easily and is poisonous to humans and animals. Aegilops tauschii is resistant to herbicides, has a high reproductive rate, and frequently grows in wheat. Both species have been listed in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China's management catalog since 2006.

METHODS

In the present study, the historical occurrence and invasion of each species were collected and reconstructed, which showed that the population outbreak of L. temulentum began in 2010, whereas that of A. tauschii began in 2000. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the geographical distributions of L. temulentum and A. tauschii were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s and 2050s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5).

RESULTS

The mean AUC values were 0.867 and 0.931 for L. temulentum and A. tauschii, respectively. Human influence index (HII), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) were the most significant variables for L. temulentum, whereas human influence index, temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) (bio4), and annual mean temperature (bio1) were the critical environmental variables for A. tauschi. Suitable habitat areas in China for L. temulentum and A. tauschii currently covered total areas of 125 × 10⁴ and 235 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Future suitable areas of L. temulentum reached the maximum under SSP2-4.5, from 2021 to 2060, whereas for A. tauschii they reached the maximum under SSP5-8.5, from 2021 to 2060. Furthermore, the overlap area under the current climate conditions for L. temulentum and A. tauschii was approximately 90 × 10⁴ km², mainly located in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. The overlap areas decreased in the 2030s, increased in the 2050s, and reached a maximum under SSP1-2.6 (or SSP2-4.5) with an approximate area of 104 × 10⁴ km². The centroid of L. temulentum in Henan was transferred to the southwest, whereas for A. tauschii it transferred to higher latitudes in the northeast.

DISCUSSION

Our findings provide a practical reference for the early warning, control, and management of these two destructive IAP populations in China.

Seasonal timing on a cyclical Earth: Towards a theoretical framework for the evolution of phenology

Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology.

Pest management in future climates: Warming reduces physical weed management effectiveness

Climate change alters many aspects of weed performance and may also alter the effectiveness of management practices to control pests. Despite this concern, entire categories of widely used management practices, such as physical control, remain understudied in this context. We conducted a field experiment growing the invasive pest musk thistle (Carduus nutans) at ambient and experimentally elevated temperatures. We tested mowing management strategies that varied in the timing of a single mowing event relative to thistles' stem elongation phenology and compared these with an unmowed control. Results from this experiment informed demographic models to project population growth rates for different warming/mowing scenarios. Compared to plants grown under ambient conditions, warmed thistles were more likely to survive the same mowing treatment, flowered earlier in the season, grew to taller heights, and produced more flowering capitula. Proportional reductions in plant height and capitulum production caused by mowing were smaller under warming. Warming did not change the relative ranking of mowing treatments; mowing late in the growing season (2 weeks after individuals first reached a height of 40 cm) was most effective at ambient temperatures and under warming. Warming caused significant increases in projected local population growth rate for all mowing treatments. For invasive musk thistle, warmed individuals outperformed individuals grown at ambient temperatures across all the mowing treatments we considered. Our results suggest that to achieve outcomes comparable to those attainable at today's temperatures, farmers will need to apply supplemental management, possibly including additional mowing effort or alternative practices such as chemical control. We recommend that scientists test management practices under experimental warming, where possible, and that managers monitor ongoing management to identify changes in effectiveness. Information about changes in managed weeds' mortality, fecundity, and phenology can then be used to make informed decisions in future climates.

Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions

Significance International concern about the consequences of human-induced global environmental changes has prompted a renewed focus on reducing ecological effects of biological invasions, climate change, and nutrient pollution. Our results show that the combined effects of nonnative species invasions and abiotic global environmental changes are often negative but no worse than invasion impacts alone. Invasion impacts are also more strongly detrimental than warming temperatures or nitrogen deposition, two common stressors. Thus, reducing the spread of invasive species is critical for mitigating harms from anthropogenic changes to global ecosystems.

The role of environmental conditions in regulating long-term dynamics of an invasive seaweed

The mechanisms underpinning long-term dynamics and viability of invader populations in the receiving environment remain largely unknown. We tested the hypothesis that temporal variations in the abundance of a well-established invasive seaweed, Caulerpa cylindracea, in the NW Mediterranean, could be regulated by inter-annual fluctuations in environmental conditions. Abundance data of C. cylindracea, sampled repeatedly between 2005 and 2020 at the peak of its growing season (late summer/early fall), were related to interannual variations in seasonal seawater temperature, wind speed and rainfall recorded during different growth phases of the alga, in both subtidal and intertidal habitats. In both habitats, higher peak of C. cylindracea cover was associated with lower seawater temperature in spring and summer, when the seaweed exits the winter resting phase and starts a period of active growth. In addition, the peak abundance of subtidal C. cylindracea was positively associated with higher autumn wind speed intensity and spring daily total precipitation. Our study reveals the importance of seasonal and interannual variation of abiotic factors in shaping temporal patterns of abundance of C. cylindracea, in both subtidal and intertidal habitats. Identifying the factors underpinning invasive population temporal dynamics and viability is essential to predict the time and conditions under which an invader can thrive, and thus guide management strategies aimed to containing invasions under current and future climates.

Vertebrate herbivory weakens directional selection for earlier emergence in competition

The timing of seedling emergence is strongly linked with fitness because it determines the biotic and abiotic environment experienced by plants in this vulnerable life stage. Experiments and observations consistently find that earlier-emerging plants have a competitive advantage over those emerging later. However, substantial genetic and phenotypic variation in emergence timing is harbored within and among plant populations, making it important to characterize the selective agents-including biotic interactions-that contribute to this variation. In seasonal herbaceous communities, we hypothesized that consumption of early-emerging individuals by vertebrates could weaken the strength of directional selection for earlier emergence in competitive environments. To investigate this, we carried out phenotypic selection analyses on emergence timing in two California grass species, the native Stipa pulchra and non-native Bromus diandrus, growing in intraspecific competitive neighborhoods with and without vertebrate herbivore exclusion. Vertebrate herbivores consistently weakened directional selection for earlier emergence. Our results demonstrate that vertebrate herbivores play an underappreciated selective role on phenology in plant populations, with implications for contemporary evolution, such as the potential of species to adapt to global environmental changes.

Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle

Numerous studies have documented changes in the seasonal timing of organisms' growth and reproduction in response to climate warming. These changes correlate with documented changes in species' abundance, but mechanisms linking these trends remain elusive. We investigated the joint demographic effects of advanced reproductive phenology and warming on a globally invasive plant (Carduus nutans) in a field experiment, documenting a substantial shift toward completion of the life cycle at younger ages. Demographic modeling projected 71% of warmed individuals flower as annuals, compared to 61% under current conditions. As this species only reproduces once, this represents a major acceleration of the life cycle. We project a 15% increase in this invader's population growth rate. We show that rising temperatures accelerate this invasive species' population growth by increasing the average size of reproducing individuals; increasing the proportion of individuals that survive to reproduce; and increasing the fraction that reproduce as annuals. Major increases in population growth in this, and potentially many other, invasive species will threaten food security and require careful planning to avoid significant environmental and economic impacts.