Phenotypic selection patterns in a hybrid zone between two Calceolaria species with contrasting pollinators: insights from field surveys and fitness assessments

Hybrid zones provide natural experimental settings to test hypotheses about species divergence. We concentrated on a hybrid swarm in which oil-collecting bees and flower-pecking birds act as pollinators of two Calceolaria species. We asked whether both pollinators contributed to flower divergence by differentially promoting prezygotic fitness at the phenotypic extremes that represent parentals. We studied pollinator-mediated selection on phenotypic traits critical in plant-pollinator mechanical interaction, namely plant height, reward-to-stigma distance, and flower shape. We utilised the quantity and quality of pollen deposited as fitness measures and distinguished between the contribution of the two pollinator types. Results showed uni- and bivariate disruptive selection for most traits through pollen grains deposited by both pollinators. Bird-mediated fitness favoured low plants with a long reward-to-stigma distance and a straight corolla, while bee-mediated fitness favoured tall plants with a short reward-to-stigma distance and curved corolla. In addition, stabilising selection at one end of the phenotypic range showed a bird-mediated reproductive asymmetry within the swarm. The disruptive pattern was countered, albeit weakly, by hybrids receiving higher-quality pollen on the stigmas. Results suggest that pollinator-mediated selection promotes divergence of integrated flower phenotypes mechanically adjusted either to bees or birds underscoring the importance of pollinator specialisation in diversification.

Competitors alter selection on alpine plants exposed to experimental climate change

Investigating how climate change alters selection regimes is a crucial step toward understanding the potential of populations to evolve in the face of changing conditions. Previous studies have mainly focused on understanding how changing climate directly influences selection, while the role of species' interactions has received little attention. Here, we used a transplant experiment along an elevation gradient to estimate how climate warming and competitive interactions lead to shifts in directional phenotypic selection on morphology and phenology of four alpine plants. We found that warming generally imposed novel selection, with the largest shifts in regimes acting on specific leaf area and flowering time across species. Competitors instead weakened the selection acting on traits that was imposed directly by warming. Weakened or absent selection in the presence of competitors was largely associated with the suppression of absolute means and variation of fitness. Our results suggest that although climate change can impose strong selection, competitive interactions within communities might act to limit selection and thereby stymie evolutionary responses in alpine plants facing climate change.

Inter-annual variation in the abundance of specialist herbivores determines plant resistance in Datura stramonium

The expression of plant resistance traits against arthropod herbivores often comes with costs to other essential plant functions such as growth and fitness. These trade-offs are shaped by the allocation of limited resources. However, plants might also possess the capability to allocate resources to both resistance and growth, thereby ensuring their survival when under herbivore attacks. Additionally, the extent of damage caused by herbivores could vary across different years or seasons, subsequently impacting plant performance. In this study, we aimed to investigate how the annual variations in herbivore abundance and damage levels affect plant performance. We generated F2 progeny through a cross between two populations of the annual herb Datura stramonium (Solanaceae). These populations are known to have differing levels of chemical defense and herbivory. These F2 plants were cultivated in a common natural environment for two consecutive years (2017 and 2018). Our findings reveal that plants with higher resistance, attained higher seed production but this trend was evident only during 2018. This relationship coincided with a five-fold increase in the abundance of Lema daturaphila (Chrysomelidae) larvae in 2018. Indeed, the plants experienced a 13-fold increase in damage during this second year of study. Furthermore, our results indicated that there was no trade-off between resistance, growth, and fitness in either of the 2 years. In contrast, during 2018, when plants faced stronger herbivore pressure, they allocated all available nutritional resources to enhance both resistance and growth. Our study highlights how the selection for plant resistance is dependent upon the inter-annual variation in herbivore abundance.

The effect of experimental pollinator decline on pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits

Human-mediated environmental change, by reducing mean fitness, is hypothesized to strengthen selection on traits that mediate interactions among species. For example, human-mediated declines in pollinator populations are hypothesized to reduce mean seed production by increasing the magnitude of pollen limitation and thus strengthen pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits that increase pollinator attraction or pollen transfer efficiency. To test this hypothesis, we measured two female fitness components and six floral traits of Lobelia siphilitica plants exposed to supplemental hand-pollination, ambient open-pollination, or reduced open-pollination treatments. The reduced treatment simulated pollinator decline, while the supplemental treatment was used to estimate pollen limitation and pollinator-mediated selection. We found that plants in the reduced pollination treatment were significantly pollen limited, resulting in pollinator-mediated selection for taller inflorescences and more vibrant petals, both traits that could increase pollinator attraction. This contrasts with plants in the ambient pollination treatment, where reproduction was not pollen limited and there was not significant pollinator-mediated selection on any floral trait. Our results support the hypothesis that human-mediated environmental change can strengthen selection on traits of interacting species and suggest that these traits have the potential to evolve in response to changing environments.

Maladaptive plastic responses of flowering time to geothermal heating

Phenotypic plasticity might increase fitness if the conditions under which it evolved remain unaltered, but becomes maladaptive if the environment no longer provides reliable cues for subsequent conditions. In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction can respond plastically to spring temperature, maximizing the benefits of a long season while minimizing the exposure to unfavorable cold temperatures. However, if the relationship between early spring temperatures and later conditions changes, the optimal response might change. In geothermally heated ecosystems, the plastic response of flowering time to springtime soil temperature that has evolved in unheated areas is likely to be non-optimal, because soil temperatures are higher and decoupled from air temperatures in heated areas. We therefore expect natural selection to favor a lower plasticity and a delayed flowering in these areas. Using observational data along a natural geothermal warming gradient, we tested the hypothesis that selection on flowering time depends on soil temperature and favors later flowering on warmer soils in the perennial Cerastium fontanum. In both study years, plants growing in warmer soils began flowering earlier than plants growing in colder soils, suggesting that first flowering date (FFD) responds plastically to soil temperature. In one of the two study years, selection favored earlier flowering in colder soils but later flowering in warmer soils, suggesting that the current level of plastic advance of FFD on warmer soils may be maladaptive in some years. Our results illustrate the advantages of using natural experiments, such as geothermal ecosystems, to examine selection in environments that recently have undergone major changes. Such knowledge is essential to understand and predict both ecological and evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Water deficit changes patterns of selection on floral signals and nectar rewards in the common morning glory

Understanding whether and how resource limitation alters phenotypic selection on floral traits is key to predict the evolution of plant-pollinator interactions under climate change. Two important resources predicted to decline with our changing climate are pollinators and water in the form of increased droughts. Most work, however, has studied these selective agents separately and in the case of water deficit, studies are rare. Here, we use the common morning glory (Ipomoea purpurea) to investigate the effects of experimental reduction in pollinator access and water availability on floral signals and nectar rewards and their effects on phenotypic selection on these traits. We conducted a manipulative experiment in a common garden, where we grew plants in three treatments: (1) pollinator restriction, (2) water reduction and (3) unmanipulated control. Plants in pollinator restriction and control treatments were well-watered compared to water deficit. We found that in contrast to pollinator restriction, water deficit had strong effects altering floral signals and nectar rewards but also differed in the direction and strength of selection on these traits compared to control plants. Water deficit increased the opportunity for selection, and selection in this treatment favoured lower nectar volumes and larger floral sizes, which might further alter pollinator visitation. In addition, well-watered plants, both in control and pollinator deficit, showed similar patterns of selection to increase nectar volume suggesting non-pollinator-mediated selection on nectar. Our study shows that floral traits may evolve in response to reduction in water access faster than to declines in pollinators and reinforces that abiotic factors can be important agents of selection for floral traits. Although only few experimental selection studies have manipulated access to biotic and abiotic resources, our results suggest that this approach is key for understanding how pollination systems may evolve under climate change.

Genomic versus phenotypic selection to improve corn borer resistance and grain yield in maize

Introduction

The study of yield and resistance/tolerance to pest are related traits fundamental for maize breeding programs. Genomic selection (GS), which uses all marker information to calculate genomic breeding values, is presented as an emerging alternative to phenotypic and marker-assisted selections for improving complex traits controlled by many genes with small effects. Therefore, although phenotypic selection (PS) has been effective for increasing resistance and yield under high infestation with maize stem borers, higher genetic gains are expected to be obtained through GS based on the complex architecture of both traits. Our objective was to test whether GS is more effective than PS for improving resistance and/or tolerance to maize stem borers and grain yield.

Methods

For this, we compared different selection programs based on phenotype and genotypic value for a single trait, resistance or yield, and for both traits together.

Results and discussion

We obtained that GS achieved the highest genetic gain for yield, meanwhile phenotypic selection for yield was the program that achieved the highest reduction of tunnel length, but was ineffective for increasing yield. However, phenotypic or genomic selection for increased resistance may be more effective in improving both traits together; although the gains per cycle would be small for both traits.

How to measure mast seeding?

The periodic production of large seed crops, or masting, is a widespread phenomenon in perennial plants. This behavior can enhance the reproductive efficiency of plants, leading to increased fitness, and produce ripple effects on food webs. While variability from year to year is a defining characteristic of masting, the methods used to quantify this variability are highly debated. The commonly used coefficient of variation lacks the ability to account for the serial dependence in mast data and can be influenced by zeros, making it a less suitable choice for various applications based on individual-level observations, such as phenotypic selection, heritability, and climate change studies, which rely on individual-plant-level datasets that often contain numerous zeros. To address these limitations, we present three case studies and introduce volatility and periodicity, which account for the variance in the frequency domain by emphasizing the significance of long intervals in masting. By utilizing examples of Sorbus aucuparia, Pinus pinea, Quercus robur, Quercus pubescens, and Fagus sylvatica, we demonstrate how volatility captures the effects of variance at both high and low frequencies, even in the presence of zeros, leading to improved ecological interpretations of the results. The growing availability of long-term, individual-plant datasets promises significant advancements in the field, but requires appropriate tools for analysis, which the new metrics provide.

Analysis of trait-performance-fitness relationships reveals pollinator-mediated selection on orchid pollination traits

PREMISE

The role of pollinators in evolutionary floral divergence has spurred substantial effort into measuring pollinator-mediated phenotypic selection and its variation in space and time. For such estimates, the fitness consequences of pollination processes must be separated from other factors affecting fitness.

METHODS

We built a fitness function linking phenotypic traits of food-deceptive orchids to female reproductive success by including pollinator visitation and pollen deposition as intermediate performance components and used the fitness function to estimate the strength of pollinator-mediated selection through female reproductive success. We also quantified male performance as pollinarium removal and assessed similarity in trait effects on male and female performance.

RESULTS

The proportion of plants visited at least once by an effective pollinator was moderate to high, ranging from 53.7% to 85.1%. Tall, many-flowered plants were often more likely to be visited and pollinated. Given effective pollination, pollen deposition onto stigmas tended to be more likely for taller plants. Pollen deposition further depended on traits affecting the physical fit of pollinators to flowers (flower size, spur length), though the exact relationships varied in time and space. Using the fitness function to assess pollinator-mediated selection through female reproductive success acting on multiple traits, we found that selection varied detectably among taxa after accounting for sampling uncertainty. Across taxa, selection on most traits was stronger on average and more variable when pollination was less reliable.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support pollination-related trait-performance-fitness relationships and thus pollinator-mediated selection on traits functionally involved in the pollination process.

Hydrogen peroxide treatment induces the transposition of an insertion sequence in Deinococcus radiopugnans DY59

Deinococcus radiopugnans DY59 (formerly Deinococcus swuensis DY59) is a radiation-resistant bacterium isolated from soil. From the 3.5 Mb genomic DNA sequence of strain DY59 (December 2014), 31 insertion sequence (IS) elements of six IS families including IS1, IS4, IS5, IS66, IS630, and IS701 and five unclassified IS elements were detected. Upon induction of oxidative stress with 80 and 100 mM H₂O₂, the unique ISs of the IS4 family member were actively translocated into a carotenoid biosynthesis gene phytoene desaturase (QR90_10400), resulting in non-pigment phenotypic selection. Therefore, these active transpositions of a specific IS family member were induced by oxidative stress at 80 and 100 mM H₂O₂. Furthermore, D. radiopugnans DY59 exhibited extremely higher MIC values against H₂O₂ treatment. To explain this phenomenon, qRT-PCR was conducted to assess the expression levels of catalase and three LysR family regulators. Our findings indicated that the ISDrpg2 and ISDrpg3 elements of the IS4 family were actively transposed into the phytoene desaturase gene by H₂O₂ treatment via replicative transposition. However, high H₂O₂ resistance did not originate from H₂O₂-induced expression of catalase and LysR family regulators.

Simulated pollinator decline has similar effects on seed production of female and hermaphrodite Lobelia siphilitica, but different effects on selection on floral traits

PREMISE

Pollinator decline, by reducing seed production, is predicted to strengthen natural selection on floral traits. However, the effect of pollinator decline on gender dimorphic species (such as gynodioecious species, where plants produce female or hermaphrodite flowers) may differ between the sex morphs: if pollinator decline reduces the seed production of females more than hermaphrodites, then it should also have a larger effect on selection on floral traits in females than in hermaphrodites.

METHODS

To simulate pollinator decline, we experimentally reduced pollinator access to female and hermaphrodite Lobelia siphilitica plants. We compared the seed production of plants in the reduced pollination treatment to plants that were exposed to ambient pollination conditions. Within each treatment, we also measured directional selection on four floral traits of females and hermaphrodites.

RESULTS

Experimentally reducing pollination decreased seed production of both females and hermaphrodites by ~21%. Reducing pollination also strengthened selection on floral traits, but this effect was not larger in females than in hermaphrodites. Instead, reducing pollination intensified selection for taller inflorescences in hermaphrodites, but did not intensify selection on any floral trait in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that pollinator decline will not have a larger effect on either seed production or selection on floral traits of female plants. As such, any effect of pollinator decline on seed production may be similar for gender dimorphic and monomorphic species. However, the potential for floral traits of females (and thus of gender dimorphic species) to evolve in response to pollinator decline may be limited.

Plant phenotypic plasticity changes pollinator-mediated selection

Many organisms change their phenotype in response to the environment, a phenomenon called phenotypic plasticity. Although plasticity can dramatically change the phenotype of an organism, we hardly understand how this can affect biotic interactions and the resulting phenotypic selection. Here, we use fast cycling Brassica rapa plants in an experiment in the greenhouse to study the link between plasticity and selection. We detected strong plasticity in morphology, nectar, and floral scent in response to different soil types and aphid herbivory. We found positive selection on nectar and morphological traits in hand- and bumblebee-pollinated plants. Bumblebee-mediated selection on a principal component representing plant height, flower number, and flowering time (mPC3) differed depending on soil type and herbivory. For plants growing in richer soil, selection was stronger in the absence of herbivores, whereas for plants growing in poorer soil selection was stronger with herbivory. We showed that bumblebees visited tall plants with many flowers overproportionally in plants in poor soil with herbivory (i.e., when tall plants were rare), thus causing stronger positive selection on this trait combination. We suggest that with strong plasticity under most stressful conditions, pollinator-mediated selection may promote adaptation to local environmental factors given sufficient heritability of the traits under selection.

Selection against early flowering in geothermally heated soils is associated with pollen but not prey availability in a carnivorous plant

PREMISE

In high-latitude environments, plastic responses of phenology to increasing spring temperatures allow plants to extend growing seasons while avoiding late frosts. However, evolved plasticity might become maladaptive if climatic conditions change and spring temperatures no longer provide reliable cues for conditions important for fitness. Maladaptative phenological responses might be related to both abiotic factors and mismatches with interacting species. When mismatches arise, we expect selection to favor changes in phenology.

METHODS

We combined observations along a soil temperature gradient in a geothermally heated area with pollen and prey supplementation experiments and examined how phenotypic selection on flowering time in the carnivorous plant Pinguicula vulgaris depends on soil temperature, and pollen and prey availability.

RESULTS

Flowering advanced and fitness decreased with increasing soil temperature. However, in pollen-supplemented plants, fitness instead increased with soil temperature. In heated soils, there was selection favoring later flowering, while earlier flowering was favored in unheated soils. This pattern remained also after artificially increasing pollen and prey availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Plant-pollinator mismatches can be an important reason why evolved plastic responses of flowering time to increasing spring temperatures become maladaptive under novel environmental conditions, and why there is selection to delay flowering. In our study, selection for later flowering remained after artificially increasing pollen availability, suggesting that abiotic factors also contribute to the observed selection. Identifying the factors that make evolved phenological responses maladaptive under novel conditions is fundamental for understanding and predicting evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Evolutionary effects of nitrogen are not easily predicted from ecological responses

PREMISE

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) addition alters the abiotic and biotic environment, potentially leading to changes in patterns of natural selection (i.e., trait-fitness relationships) and the opportunity for selection (i.e., variance in relative fitness). Because N addition favors species with light acquisition strategies (e.g., tall species), we predicted that N would strengthen selection favoring those same traits. We also predicted that N could alter the opportunity for selection via its effects on mean fitness and/or competitive asymmetries.

METHODS

We quantified the strength of selection and the opportunity for selection in replicated populations of the annual grass Setaria faberi (giant foxtail) growing in a long-term N addition experiment. We also correlated these population-level parameters with community-level metrics to identify the proximate causes of N-mediated evolutionary effects.

RESULTS

N addition increased aboveground productivity, light asymmetry, and reduced species diversity. Contrary to expectations, N addition did not strengthen selection for trait values associated with higher light acquisition such as greater height and specific leaf area (SLA); rather, it strengthened selection favoring lower SLA. Light asymmetry and species diversity were associated with selection for height and SLA, suggesting a role for these factors in driving N-mediated selection. The opportunity for selection was not influenced by N addition but was negatively associated with species diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that anthropogenic N enrichment can affect evolutionary processes, but that evolutionary changes in plant traits within populations are unlikely to parallel the shifts in plant traits observed at the community level.

Context-dependent concordance between physiological divergence and phenotypic selection in sister taxa with contrasting phenology and mating systems

PREMISE

The study of phenotypic divergence of, and selection on, functional traits in closely related taxa provides the opportunity to detect the role of natural selection in driving diversification. If the strength or direction of selection in field populations differs between taxa in a pattern that is consistent with the phenotypic difference between them, then natural selection reinforces the divergence. Few studies have sought evidence for such concordance for physiological traits.

METHODS

Herbarium specimen records were used to detect phenological differences between sister taxa independent of the effects on flowering time of long-term variation in the climate across collection sites. In the field, physiological divergence in photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, and instantaneous water-use efficiency were recorded during vegetative growth and flowering in 13 field populations of two taxon pairs of Clarkia, each comprising a self-pollinating and a outcrossing taxon.

RESULTS

Historically, each selfing taxon flowered earlier than its outcrossing sister taxon, independent of the effects of local long-term climatic conditions. Sister taxa differed in all focal traits, but the degree and (in one case) the direction of divergence depended on life stage. In general, self-pollinating taxa had higher gas exchange rates, consistent with their earlier maturation. In 6 of 18 comparisons, patterns of selection were concordant with the phenotypic divergence (or lack thereof) between sister taxa.

CONCLUSIONS

Patterns of selection on physiological traits measured in heterogeneous conditions do not reliably reflect divergence between sister taxa, underscoring the need for replicated studies of the direction of selection within and among taxa.

What determines the evolutionary trajectories of wild plant species? Approaches to the study of quantitative fitness-related traits

Wild plant species provide excellent examples of qualitative traits that evolve in response to environmental challenges (e.g., flower color, heavy metal tolerance, cyanogenesis, and male sterility). In addition to such discrete characters, a dazzling array of continuously distributed, quantitative traits are expressed at every phase of the life cycle. These traits are known or suspected to have evolved by natural selection because they are heritable, differ among populations or closely related taxa occupying distinct habitats, and have individual phenotypes associated with survival and reproductive success. This special issue [American Journal of Botany 109(11)] focuses on the tools and approaches for detecting or inferring the ecological and genetic factors contributing to changes in genetically based variation of quantitative traits within or among populations, or causing their divergence among taxa. The assembled articles use one or more of three primary approaches to detect the process or outcome of natural selection on morphological, life history, reproductive, chemical, and physiological quantitative traits: the analysis of phenotypic or artificially imposed selection to detect direct and indirect selection on traits whose function is well-understood; common garden experiments, including reciprocal transplants and "resurrection" experiments; and quantitative genetic analyses designed to detect and to estimate the environmental and genetic sources of phenotypic variation or to forecast short-term evolutionary change. Together, these articles examine and reveal the adaptive capacity of quantitative traits and the genetically based constraints that may limit their directional evolutionary change, thereby informing and testing inferences, hypotheses, and predictions concerning the evolutionary trajectories of wild plant species.

Direct evidence supporting Darwin's hypothesis of cross-pollination promoted by sex organ reciprocity

The floral phenotype plays a main role in the attraction and fit of pollinators. Both perianth traits and the positioning of sex organs can be subjected to natural selection and determine nonrandom mating patterns in populations. In stylar-polymorphic species, the Darwinian hypothesis predicts increased mating success between individuals with sex organs at equivalent heights (i.e. with higher reciprocity). We used paternity analyses in experimental populations of a stylar-dimorphic species. By comparing the observed mating patterns with those expected under random mating, we tested the effects of sex organ reciprocity and perianth traits on mating success. We also analysed phenotypic selection on perianth traits through female and male functions. The (dis)similarity of parental perianth traits had no direct effects on the mating patterns. Sex organ reciprocity had a positive effect on mating success. Narrow floral tubes increased this effect in upper sex organs. Perianth traits showed little signs of phenotypic selection. Female and absolute fitness measures resulted in different patterns of phenotypic selection. We provide precise empirical evidence of the Darwinian hypothesis about the functioning of stylar polymorphisms, demonstrating that mating patterns are determined by sex organ reciprocity and only those perianth traits which are critical to pollinator fit.

Pollinator selection against toxic nectar as a key facilitator of a plant invasion

Plant compounds associated with herbivore defence occur widely in floral nectar and can impact pollinator health. We showed previously that Rhododendron ponticum nectar contains grayanotoxin I (GTX I) at concentrations that are lethal or sublethal to honeybees and a solitary bee in the plant's non-native range in Ireland. Here we further examined this conflict and tested the hypotheses that nectar GTX I is subject to negative pollinator-mediated selection in the non-native range, but that phenotypic linkage between GTX I levels in nectar and leaves acts as a constraint on independent evolution. We found that nectar GTX I experienced negative directional selection in the non-native range, in contrast to the native Iberian range, and that the magnitude and frequency of pollinator limitation indicated that selection was pollinator-mediated. Surprisingly, nectar GTX I levels were decoupled from those of leaves in the non-native range, which may have assisted post-invasion evolution of nectar without compromising the anti-herbivore function of GTX I (here demonstrated in bioassays with an ecologically relevant herbivore). Our study emphasizes the centrality of pollinator health as a concept linked to the invasion process, and how post-invasion evolution can be targeted toward minimizing lethal or sub-lethal effects on pollinators. This article is part of the theme issue 'Natural processes influencing pollinator health: from chemistry to landscapes'.

Unravelling the causes and consequences of dispersal syndromes in a wild passerine

Evidence accumulates that dispersal is correlated with individual behavioural phenotype (dispersal syndrome). The evolutionary causes and consequences of such covariation depend on the degree of plasticity versus inheritance of the traits, which requires challenging experiments to implement in mobile organisms. Here, we combine a forced dispersal experiment, natural colonization and longitudinal data to establish if dispersal and aggression levels are integrated and to test their adaptive nature in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). We found that (forced) dispersers behaved more aggressively in their first breeding year after dispersal and decreased their aggression in following years. Strength of dispersal syndrome and direction of fecundity selection on aggression in newly colonized areas varied between years. We propose that the net benefits of aggression for dispersers increase under harsh conditions (e.g. low food abundance). This hypothesis now warrants further testing. Overall, this study provides unprecedented experimental evidence that dispersal syndromes can be remodelled via adaptive plasticity depending on the individuals' local breeding experience and/or year-specific ecological conditions. It highlights the importance of individual behavioural variation in population dynamics.

Multivariate selection mediated by aridity predicts divergence of drought-resistant traits along natural aridity gradients of an invasive weed

Geographical variation in the environment underpins selection for local adaptation and evolutionary divergence among populations. Because many environmental conditions vary across species' ranges, identifying the specific environmental variables underlying local adaptation is profoundly challenging. We tested whether natural selection mediated by aridity predicts clinal divergence among invasive populations of capeweed (Arctotheca calendula) that established and spread across southern Australia during the last two centuries. Using common garden experiments with two environmental treatments (wet and dry) that mimic aridity conditions across capeweed's invasive range, we estimated clinal divergence and effects of aridity on fitness and multivariate phenotypic selection in populations sampled along aridity gradients in Australia. We show that: (1) capeweed populations have relatively high fitness in aridity environments similar to their sampling locations; (2) the magnitude and direction of selection strongly differs between wet and dry treatments, with drought stress increasing the strength of selection; and (3) differences in directional selection between wet and dry treatments predict patterns of clinal divergence across the aridity gradient, particularly for traits affecting biomass, flowering phenology and putative antioxidant expression. Our results suggest that aridity-mediated selection contributes to trait diversification among invasive capeweed populations, possibly facilitating the expansion of capeweed across southern Australia.

Controls for Phylogeny and Robust Analysis in Pareto Task Inference

Understanding the tradeoffs faced by organisms is a major goal of evolutionary biology. One of the main approaches for identifying these tradeoffs is Pareto task inference (ParTI). Two recent papers claim that results obtained in ParTI studies are spurious due to phylogenetic dependence (Mikami T, Iwasaki W. 2021. The flipping t-ratio test: phylogenetically informed assessment of the Pareto theory for phenotypic evolution. Methods Ecol Evol. 12(4):696-706) or hypothetical p-hacking and population-structure concerns (Sun M, Zhang J. 2021. Rampant false detection of adaptive phenotypic optimization by ParTI-based Pareto front inference. Mol Biol Evol. 38(4):1653-1664). Here, we show that these claims are baseless. We present a new method to control for phylogenetic dependence, called SibSwap, and show that published ParTI inference is robust to phylogenetic dependence. We show how researchers avoided p-hacking by testing for the robustness of preprocessing choices. We also provide new methods to control for population structure and detail the experimental tests of ParTI in systems ranging from ammonites to cancer gene expression. The methods presented here may help to improve future ParTI studies.

The function of floral traits and phenotypic selection in Aconitum gymnandrum (Ranunculaceae)

Floral evolution in angiosperms is thought to be driven by pollinator-mediated selection. Understanding flower integration and adaptation requires resolving the additive and nonadditive contributions of floral pollinator attraction and pollination efficiency traits to fitness components. In this study, a flower manipulation experiment with a factorial design was used to study the adaptive significance of galea height (a putative attraction trait) and entrance width (a putative efficiency trait) in Aconitum gymnandrum Maxim. flowers. Simultaneously, phenotypic selection analysis was conducted to examine selection by pollinators on galea height, entrance width, nectar production and plant height. Increased galea height increased the pollinator visitation rate, which confirmed its attractiveness function. Increasing floral entrance width by spreading the lower sepals increased the seed number per fruit without affecting pollinator visitation. This suggests a pollination efficiency role for the entrance width. The phenotypic selection analysis, however, did not provide evidence of pollinator-mediated selection for either of these traist, but it did for plant height. According to the manipulation treatment and correlational selection results, the combined variation in galea height and entrance width of A. gymnandrum flowers did not have nonadditive effects on female reproductive success. This study demonstrated the adaptive value of A. gymnandrum flowers through manipulation of an attractiveness trait and an efficiency trait. However, neither trait was associated with pollinator-mediated selection. A combination of manipulating traits and determining current phenotypic selection could help to elucidate the mechanism of selection on floral traits involved in different functions and flower integration.

Floral Scents of a Deceptive Plant Are Hyperdiverse and Under Population-Specific Phenotypic Selection

Floral scent is a key mediator in plant-pollinator interactions. However, little is known to what extent intraspecific scent variation is shaped by phenotypic selection, with no information yet in deceptive plants. In this study, we collected inflorescence scent and fruit set of the deceptive moth fly-pollinated Arum maculatum L. (Araceae) from six populations north vs. five populations south of the Alps, accumulating to 233 samples in total, and tested for differences in scent, fruit set, and phenotypic selection on scent across this geographic barrier. We recorded 289 scent compounds, the highest number so far reported in a single plant species. Most of the compounds occurred both north and south of the Alps; however, plants of the different regions emitted different absolute and relative amounts of scent. Fruit set was higher north than south of the Alps, and some, but not all differences in scent could be explained by differential phenotypic selection in northern vs. southern populations. This study is the first to provide evidence that floral scents of a deceptive plant are under phenotypic selection and that phenotypic selection is involved in shaping geographic patterns of floral scent in such plants. The hyperdiverse scent of A. maculatum might result from the imitation of various brood substrates of its pollinators.

Reproductive trade-offs and phenotypic selection change with body condition, but not with predation regime, across island lizard populations

Trade-offs between reproduction and survival are central to life-history theory and are expected to shape patterns of phenotypic selection, but the ecological factors structuring these trade-offs and resultant patterns of selection are generally unknown. We manipulated reproductive investment and predation regime in island populations of brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) to test (1) whether previously documented increases in the survival of experimentally non-reproductive females (OVX = ovariectomy) reflect the greater susceptibility of reproductive females (SHAM = control) to predation and (2) whether phenotypic selection differs as a function of reproductive investment and predation regime. OVX females exceeded SHAM controls in growth, mass gain and body condition, indicating pronounced energetic costs of reproduction. Although mortality was greatest in the presence of bird and snake predators, differences in survival between OVX and SHAM were unrelated to predation regime, as were patterns of natural selection on body size. Instead, we found that body condition at the conclusion of the experiment differed significantly across populations, suggesting that local environments varied in their ability to support mass gain and positive energy balance. As mean body condition improved across populations, the magnitude of the survival cost of reproduction increased, linear selection on body size shifted from positive to negative, and quadratic selection shifted from stabilizing to weakly disruptive. Our results suggest that reproductive trade-offs and patterns of phenotypic selection in female brown anoles are more sensitive to inferred variation in environmental quality than to experimentally induced variation in predation.

A sit-and-wait predator, but not an active-pursuit predator, alters pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits

Indirect species interactions are ubiquitous in nature, often outnumbering direct species interactions. Yet despite evidence that indirect interactions have strong ecological effects, relatively little is known about whether they can shape adaptive evolution by altering the strength and/or direction of natural selection. We tested whether indirect interactions affect the strength and direction of pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits of the bumble-bee pollinated wildflower Lobelia siphilitica. We estimated the indirect effects of two pollinator predators with contrasting hunting modes: dragonflies (Aeshnidae and Corduliidae) and ambush bugs (Phymata americana, Reduviidae). Because dragonflies are active pursuit predators, we hypothesized that they would strengthen pollinator-mediated selection by weakening plant-pollinator interactions (i.e., a density-mediated indirect effect). In contrast, because ambush bugs are sit-and-wait predators, we hypothesized that they would weaken or reverse the direction of pollinator-mediated selection by altering pollinator foraging behavior (i.e., a trait-mediated indirect effect). Specifically, if ambush bugs hunt from plants with traits that attract pollinators (i.e., prey), then pollinators will spend less time visiting those plants, weakening or reversing the direction of selection on attractive floral traits. We did not find evidence that high dragonfly abundance strengthened selection on floral traits via a density-mediated indirect effect: neither pollen limitation (a proxy for the strength of plant-pollinator interactions) nor directional selection on floral traits of L. siphilitica differed significantly between high- and low-dragonfly abundance treatments. In contrast, we did find evidence that ambush bug presence affected selection on floral traits via a trait-mediated indirect effect: ambush bugs hunted from L. siphilitica plants with larger daily floral displays, reversing the direction of pollinator-mediated selection on daily display size. These results suggest that indirect species interactions have the potential to shape adaptive evolution by altering natural selection.

Plant-animal interactions mediate climatic effects on selection on flowering time

Selection on flowering time in plants is often mediated by multiple agents, including climatic conditions and the intensity of mutualistic and antagonistic interactions with animals. These selective agents can have both direct and indirect effects. For example, climate might not only influence phenotypic selection on flowering time directly by affecting plant physiology, but it can also alter selection indirectly by modifying the seasonal activity and relative timing of animals interacting with plants. We used 21 yr of data to identify the drivers of selection on flowering time in the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus, and to examine if antagonistic plant-animal interactions mediate effects of climate on selection. We examined the fitness consequences of vertebrate grazing and predispersal seed predation, and how these effects varied among years and among individuals within years. Although both antagonistic plant-animal interactions had important negative effects on plant fitness, only grazing intensity was consistently related to plant phenology, being higher in early-flowering individuals. Spring temperature influenced the intensity of both plant-animal interactions, as well as the covariance between seed predation and plant phenology. However, only differences in grazing intensity among years were associated with differences in selection on flowering time; the strength of selection for early flowering being stronger in years with lower mean intensity of grazing. Our results illustrate how climatic conditions can influence plant-animal interactions that are important selective agents for plant traits. A broader implication of our findings is that both ecological and evolutionary responses to climatic changes might be indirect, and largely mediated by species interactions.

Chronic selection for early reproductive phenology in an annual plant across a steep, elevational gradient of growing season length

Colonization along ubiquitous gradients of growing season length should require adaptation of phenological traits, driven by natural selection. Although phenology often varies with season length and genetic differentiation in phenological traits sometimes seems adaptive, few studies test whether natural selection is responsible for these patterns. The annual plant Rhinanthus minor is genetically differentiated for phenology across a 1000-m elevational gradient of growing season length in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. We estimated phenotypic selection on five phenological traits for three generations of naturally occurring individuals at 12 sites (n = 10,112), and two generations of genetically and phenotypically more variable transplanted populations at nine of these sites (n = 24,611). Selection was weak for most traits, but consistently favored early flowering across the gradient rather than only under short seasons. There was no evidence that apparent selection favoring early reproduction arose from failure to consider all components of fitness, or variation in other correlated phenological traits. Instead, selection for earlier flowering may be balanced by selection for strong cogradient phenological plasticity that indirectly favors later flowering. However, this probably does not explain the consistency of selection on flowering time across this steep, elevational gradient of growing season length.

Bigger is not always better: Viability selection on body mass varies across life stages in a hibernating mammal

Body mass is often viewed as a proxy of past access to resources and of future survival and reproductive success. Links between body mass and survival or reproduction are, however, likely to differ between age classes and sexes. Remarkably, this is rarely taken into account in selection analyses. Selection on body mass is likely to be the primary target accounting for juvenile survival until reproduction but may weaken after recruitment. Males and females also often differ in how they use resources for reproduction and survival. Using a long-term study on body mass and annual survival in yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer), we show that body mass was under stabilizing viability selection in the first years of life, before recruitment, which changed to positive directional selection as age increased and animals matured. We found no evidence that viability selection across age classes on body mass differed between sexes. By investigating the link between running speed and body mass, we show that the capacity to escape predators was not consistent across age classes and followed a quadratic relationship at young ages only. Overall, our results indicate that mature age classes exhibit traditional patterns of positive viability selection on body mass, as expected in a hibernating mammal, but that mass in the first years of life is subjected to stabilizing selection which may come from additional predation pressures that negate the benefits of the largest body masses. Our study highlights the importance to disentangle selection pressures on traits across critical age (or life) classes.

Vertebrate herbivory weakens directional selection for earlier emergence in competition

The timing of seedling emergence is strongly linked with fitness because it determines the biotic and abiotic environment experienced by plants in this vulnerable life stage. Experiments and observations consistently find that earlier-emerging plants have a competitive advantage over those emerging later. However, substantial genetic and phenotypic variation in emergence timing is harbored within and among plant populations, making it important to characterize the selective agents-including biotic interactions-that contribute to this variation. In seasonal herbaceous communities, we hypothesized that consumption of early-emerging individuals by vertebrates could weaken the strength of directional selection for earlier emergence in competitive environments. To investigate this, we carried out phenotypic selection analyses on emergence timing in two California grass species, the native Stipa pulchra and non-native Bromus diandrus, growing in intraspecific competitive neighborhoods with and without vertebrate herbivore exclusion. Vertebrate herbivores consistently weakened directional selection for earlier emergence. Our results demonstrate that vertebrate herbivores play an underappreciated selective role on phenology in plant populations, with implications for contemporary evolution, such as the potential of species to adapt to global environmental changes.

Most published selection gradients are underestimated: Why this is and how to fix it

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists routinely estimate selection gradients. Most researchers seek to quantify selection on individual phenotypes, regardless of whether fixed or repeatedly expressed traits are studied. Selection gradients estimated to address such questions are attenuated unless analyses account for measurement error and biological sources of within-individual variation. Estimates of standardized selection gradients published in Evolution between 2010 and 2019 were primarily based on traits measured once (59% of 325 estimates). We show that those are attenuated: bias increases with decreasing repeatability but differently for linear versus nonlinear gradients. Others derived individual-mean trait values prior to analyses (41%), typically using few repeats per individual, which does not remove bias. We evaluated three solutions, all requiring repeated measures: (i) correcting gradients derived from classic models using estimates of trait correlations and repeatabilities, (ii) multivariate mixed-effects models, previously used for estimating linear gradients (seven estimates, 2%), which we expand to nonlinear analyses, and (iii) errors-in-variables models that account for within-individual variance, and are rarely used in selection studies. All approaches produced accurate estimates regardless of repeatability and type of gradient, however, errors-in-variables models produced more precise estimates and may thus be preferable.

Seed predation selects for reproductive variability and synchrony in perennial plants

Annually variable and synchronous seed production by plant populations, or masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in long-lived plants. Masting is thought to be selectively beneficial because interannual variability and synchrony increase the fitness of plants through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring. Predator satiation is believed to be a key economy of scale, but whether it can drive phenotypic evolution for masting in plants has been rarely explored. We used data from seven plant species (Quercus humilis, Quercus ilex, Quercus rubra, Quercus alba, Quercus montana, Sorbus aucuparia and Pinus pinea) to determine whether predispersal seed predation selects for plant phenotypes that mast. Predation selected for interannual variability in Mediterranean oaks (Q. humilis and Q. ilex), for synchrony in Q. rubra, and for both interannual variability and reproductive synchrony in S. aucuparia and P. pinea. Predation never selected for negative temporal autocorrelation of seed production. Predation by invertebrates appears to select for only some aspects of masting, most importantly high coefficient of variation, supporting individual-level benefits of the population-level phenomenon of mast seeding. Determining the selective benefits of masting is complex because of interactions with other seed predators, which may impose contradictory selective pressures.

Trait-fitness associations do not predict within-species phenotypic evolution over 2 million years

Long-term patterns of phenotypic change are the cumulative results of tens of thousands to millions of years of evolution. Yet, empirical and theoretical studies of phenotypic selection are largely based on contemporary populations. The challenges in studying phenotypic evolution, in particular trait-fitness associations in the deep past, are barriers to linking micro- and macroevolution. Here, we capitalize on the unique opportunity offered by a marine colonial organism commonly preserved in the fossil record to investigate trait-fitness associations over 2 Myr. We use the density of female polymorphs in colonies of Antartothoa tongima as a proxy for fecundity, a fitness component, and investigate multivariate signals of trait-fitness associations in six time intervals on the backdrop of Pleistocene climatic shifts. We detect negative trait-fitness associations for feeding polymorph (autozooid) sizes, positive associations for autozooid shape but no particular relationship between fecundity and brood chamber size. In addition, we demonstrate that long-term trait patterns are explained by palaeoclimate (as approximated by ∂¹⁸O), and to a lesser extent by ecological interactions (i.e. overgrowth competition and substrate crowding). Our analyses show that macroevolutionary outcomes of trait evolution are not a simple scaling-up from the trait-fitness associations.

Using ecological context to interpret spatiotemporal variation in natural selection

Spatiotemporal variation in natural selection is expected, but difficult to estimate. Pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits provides a good system for understanding and linking variation in selection to differences in ecological context. We studied pollinator-mediated selection in five populations of Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) in Costa Rica and Mexico. Using a nonlinear path-analytical approach, we assessed several functional components of selection, and linked variation in pollinator-mediated selection across time and space to variation in pollinator assemblages. After correcting for estimation error, we detected moderate variation in net selection on two out of four blossom traits. Both the opportunity for selection and the mean strength of selection decreased with increasing reliability of cross-pollination. Selection for pollinator attraction was consistently positive and stronger on advertisement than reward traits. Selection on traits affecting pollen transfer from the pollinator to the stigmas was strong only when cross-pollination was unreliable and there was a mismatch between pollinator and blossom size. These results illustrate how consideration of trait function and ecological context can facilitate both the detection and the causal understanding of spatiotemporal variation in natural selection.

Indirect Selection on Flower Color in Silene littorea

Flower color, as other floral traits, may suffer conflicting selective pressures mediated by both mutualists and antagonists. The maintenance of intraspecific flower color variability has been usually explained as a result of direct selection by biotic agents. However, flower color might also be under indirect selection through correlated traits, since correlations among flower traits are frequent. In this study, we aimed to find out how flower color variability is maintained in two nearby populations of Silene littorea that consistently differ in the proportions of white-flowered plants. To do that, we assessed natural selection on floral color and correlated traits by means of phenotypic selection analysis and path analysis. Strong directional selection on floral display and flower production was found in both populations through either male or female fitness. Flower color had a negative indirect effect on the total male and female fitness in Melide population, as plants with lighter corollas produced more flowers. In contrast, in Barra population, plants with darker corollas produced more flowers and have darker calices, which in turn were selected. Our results suggest that the prevalence of white-flowered plants in Melide and pink-flowered plants in Barra is a result of indirect selection through correlated flower traits and not a result of direct selection of either pollinators or herbivores on color.

Genomic and chemical evidence for local adaptation in resistance to different herbivores in Datura stramonium

Because most species are collections of genetically variable populations distributed to habitats differing in their abiotic/biotic environmental factors and community composition, the pattern and strength of natural selection imposed by species on each other's traits are also expected to be highly spatially variable. Here, we used genomic and quantitative genetic approaches to understand how spatially variable selection operates on the genetic basis of plant defenses to herbivores. To this end, an F₂ progeny was generated by crossing Datura stramonium (Solanaceae) parents from two populations differing in their level of chemical defense. This F₂ progeny was reciprocally transplanted into the parental plants' habitats and by measuring the identity by descent (IBD) relationship of each F₂ plant to each parent, we were able to elucidate how spatially variable selection imposed by herbivores operated on the genetic background (IBD) of resistance to herbivory, promoting local adaptation. The results highlight that plants possessing the highest total alkaloid concentrations (sum of all alkaloid classes) were not the most well-defended or fit. Instead, specific alkaloids and their linked loci/alleles were favored by selection imposed by different herbivores. This has led to population differentiation in plant defenses and thus, to local adaptation driven by plant-herbivore interactions.

Floral trait differentiation in Anacamptis coriophora: Phenotypic selection on scents, but not on colour

Current divergent selection may promote floral trait differentiation among conspecific populations in flowering plants. However, whether this applies to complex traits such as colour or scents has been little studied, even though these traits often vary within species. In this study, we compared floral colour and odour as well as selective pressures imposed upon these traits among seven populations belonging to three subspecies of the widespread, generalist orchid Anacamptis coriophora. Colour was characterized using calibrated photographs, and scents were sampled using dynamic headspace extraction and analysed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. We then quantified phenotypic selection exerted on these traits by regressing fruit set values on floral trait values. We showed that the three studied subspecies were characterized by different floral colour and odour, with one of the two predominant floral volatiles emitted by each subspecies being taxon-specific. Plant size was positively correlated with fruit set in most populations, whereas we found no apparent link between floral colour and female reproductive success. We detected positive selection on several taxon-specific compounds in A. coriophora subsp. fragrans, whereas no selection was found on floral volatiles of A. coriophora subsp. coriophora and A. coriophora subsp. martrinii. This study is one of the first to document variation in phenotypic selection exerted on floral scents among conspecific populations. Our results suggest that selection could contribute to ongoing chemical divergence among A. coriophora subspecies.

Phenotypic selection through cell death: stochastic modelling of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase dynamics

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most aggressive malignant primary brain tumour with a median overall survival of 15 months. To treat GBM, patients currently undergo a surgical resection followed by exposure to radiotherapy and concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ) chemotherapy. However, this protocol often leads to treatment failure, with drug resistance being the main reason behind this. To date, many studies highlight the role of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) in conferring drug resistance. The mechanism through which MGMT confers resistance is not well studied-particularly in terms of computational models. With only a few reasonable biological assumptions, we were able to show that even a minimal model of MGMT expression could robustly explain TMZ-mediated drug resistance. In particular, we showed that for a wide range of parameter values constrained by novel cell growth and viability assays, a model accounting for only stochastic gene expression of MGMT coupled with cell growth, division, partitioning and death was able to exhibit phenotypic selection of GBM cells expressing MGMT in response to TMZ. Furthermore, we found this selection allowed the cells to pass their acquired phenotypic resistance onto daughter cells in a stable manner (as long as TMZ is provided). This suggests that stochastic gene expression alone is enough to explain the development of chemotherapeutic resistance.

Enhanced seed defenses potentially relax selection by seed predators against serotiny in lodgepole pine

Serotiny, the retention of seeds in a canopy seed bank until high temperatures cause seeds to be released, is an important life history trait for many woody plants in fire-prone habitats. Serotiny provides a competitive advantage after fire but increases vulnerability to predispersal seed predation, due to the seeds being retained in clusters in predictable locations for extended periods. This creates opposing selection pressures. Serotiny is favored in areas of high fire frequency, but is selected against by predispersal seed predators. However, predation also selects for cone traits associated with seed defense that could reduce predation on serotinous cones and thereby relax selection against serotiny. This helps explain the elevated defenses in highly serotinous species. However, whether such interactions drive variation in seed defenses within variably serotinous populations has been studied rarely. We investigated the effects of phenotypic selection exerted by red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) predation on Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) seeds. Squirrels preferentially harvested cones with more and larger seeds, indicating a preference for a higher food reward. We found evidence for stronger selection on trees with serotinous cones, which presumably accounts for the elevated defenses of and lower predation on serotinous compared to non-serotinous cones. Lower levels of predation on serotinous cones in turn lessen selection against serotiny by squirrels. This has important implications because the frequency of serotiny in lodgepole pine has profound consequences for post-fire communities and ecosystems widespread in the Rocky Mountains.

Ecological rigidity and the hardness of selection in the wild

Hutchinson's ecological theater and evolutionary play is a classical view of evolutionary ecology-ecology provides a template in which evolution occurs. An opposing view is that ecological and evolutionary changes are like two actors on a stage, intertwined by density and frequency dependence. These opposing views correspond to hard and soft selection, respectively. Although often presented as diametrically opposed, both types of selection can occur simultaneously, yet we largely lack knowledge of the relative importance of hard versus soft selection in the wild. I use a dataset of 3000 individual gall makers from 15 wild local populations over 5 years to investigate the hardness of selection. I show that enemy attack consistently favors some gall sizes over others (hard selection) but that these biases can be fine-tuned by density and frequency dependence (soft selection). As a result, selection is hard and soft in roughly equal measures, but the importance of each type varies as species interactions shift. I conclude that eco-evolutionary dynamics should occur when a mix of hard and soft selection acts on a population. This work contributes to the rapprochement of disparate views of evolutionary ecology-ecology is neither a rigid theater nor a flexible actor, but instead embodies components of both.

Sexual and natural selection on pollen morphology in Taraxacum

PREMISE

Spiny pollen has evolved independently in multiple entomophilous lineages. Sexual selection may act on exine traits that facilitate male mating success by influencing the transfer of pollen from the anther to the body of the pollinator, while natural selection acts to increase pollen survival. We postulated that relative to sexual congeners, apomictic dandelions undergo relaxed selection on traits associated with male mating success.

METHODS

We explored sexual selection on exine traits by measuring the propensity for Taraxacum spp. pollen to attach to hairs of flower-visiting bumblebees (Bombus spp.) or flies (Diptera: Syrphidae and Muscoidea) and assessed natural selection by testing whether pollen traits defend against consumption.

RESULTS

Pollen picked up by bumblebees exhibited a narrower subset of spine-spacing phenotypes, consistent with stabilizing selection. Flies picked up larger pollen from flowers than expected at random. Surveys of corbiculae (pollen basket) contents from foraging bumblebees and feces of flies showed that pollen grains consumed by both kinds of visitors are similar in spine characteristics and size to those produced by the donor. When bees visit inflorescences of apomictic T. officinale, they pick up pollen with spine-spacing phenotypes above the mean and shifted toward those of sexual T. ceratophorum.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that traits under sexual selection during pollen pickup vary among pollinators, while natural selection for pollen defense is nil in T. ceratophorum. In hybrid zones between apomictic and sexual dandelions, pollen traits place apomictic donors at a dispersal disadvantage, potentially reinforcing reproductive isolation.

Simulated pollinator declines intensify selection on floral traits that facilitate selfing and outcrossing in Impatiens capensis

PREMISE

Anthropogenic environmental change is causing pollinator populations to decline. These declines should intensify selection for floral traits that facilitate outcrossing by making plants more attractive to pollinators and/or for floral traits that facilitate selfing in the absence of pollinators. However, the effect of pollinator declines on selection on floral traits could be modified by other environmental factors such as herbivores.

METHODS

We studied the effect of simulated pollinator declines on selection on floral traits of Impatiens capensis, a mixed-mating species that produces both obligately selfing cleistogamous flowers and primarily outcrossing chasmogamous flowers. We measured directional selection differentials via seeds per plant on two traits that facilitate outcrossing (chasmogamous flower size and number) and one trait that facilitates selfing (cleistogamous flower number) in ambient, reduced pollinator access, and reduced pollinator access combined with increased foliar herbivory treatments.

RESULTS

Reduced pollinator access intensified selection for larger chasmogamous flowers and more cleistogamous flowers. In contrast, increased herbivory did not affect selection on any floral trait.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduced pollinator access intensified selection for a trait that facilitates outcrossing, suggesting that even species such as I. capensis that can autonomously self-pollinate have the potential to respond to pollinator declines by evolving floral traits that reinforce interactions between plants and pollinators. However, reduced pollinator access also intensified selection for a trait that facilitates selfing, suggesting that I. capensis could adapt to pollinator declines by evolving floral traits that maintain the production of both selfed and outcrossed seeds.

Phenotypic Selection on Flower Color and Floral Display Size by Three Bee Species

Plants exhibit a wide array of floral forms and pollinators can act as agent of selection on floral traits. Two trends have emerged from recent reviews of pollinator-mediated selection in plants. First, pollinator-mediated selection on plant-level attractants such as floral display size is stronger than on flower-level attractant such as flower color. Second, when comparing plant species, distinct pollinators can exert different selection patterns on floral traits. In addition, many plant species are visited by a diverse array of pollinators but very few studies have examined selection by distinct pollinators. In the current study, we examined phenotypic selection on flower color and floral display size by three distinct bee species, the European honey bee, Apis mellifera, the common eastern bumble bee, Bombus impatiens, and the alfalfa leafcutting bee, Megachile rotundata, foraging on Medicago sativa. To estimate phenotypic selection by each bee species and for all bees combined simultaneously and on the same group of plants, we introduce a new method that combines pollinator visitation data to seed set and floral trait measurements data typical of phenotypic selection study. When comparing floral traits, all bee species selected on the number of racemes per stem and the number of stems per plant, two components of floral display size. However, only leafcutting bees selected on hue or flower color and only bumble bees selected on chroma or darkness of flowers. Selection on chroma occurred via correlational selection between chroma and number of open flowers per raceme and we examine how correlational selection may facilitate the evolution of flower color in plant populations. When comparing bee species, the three bee species exerted similar selection pattern on some floral traits but different patterns on other floral traits and differences in selection patterns were observed between flower-level and plant-level attractants. The trends detected were consistent with previous studies and we advocate the approach introduced here for future studies examining the impact of distinct pollinators on floral trait evolution.

Natural selection acting on integrated phenotypes: covariance among functional leaf traits increases plant fitness

Plant functional strategies are usually accomplished through the simultaneous expression of different traits, and hence their correlations should be promoted by natural selection. The adaptive value of correlations among leaf functional traits, however, has not been assessed in natural populations. We estimated intraspecific variation in leaf functional traits related to the primary metabolism and anti-herbivore defence in a population of Turnera velutina. We analysed whether natural selection favoured the expression of individual traits, particular combinations of traits or leaf phenotypic integration. Patterns of covariation among traits were related to water and nitrogen economy, and were similar among genotypes, but the magnitude of their phenotypic integration differed by 10-fold. Although families did not differ in the mean values of leaf functional traits, directional selection favoured low nitrogen content and low chemical defence, high content of chlorophyll, sugar in extrafloral nectar and trichome density. Families with higher phenotypic integration among leaf traits grew faster and produced more flowers. We suggest that the coordinated expression of leaf traits has an adaptive value, probably related to optimisation in the expression of traits related to water conservation and nitrogen acquisition.

Empirical Comparison of Tropical Maize Hybrids Selected Through Genomic and Phenotypic Selections

Genomic selection predicts the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of individuals not previously phenotyped. Several studies have investigated the accuracy of genomic predictions in maize but there is little empirical evidence on the practical performance of lines selected based on phenotype in comparison with those selected solely on GEBVs in advanced testcross yield trials. The main objectives of this study were to (1) empirically compare the performance of tropical maize hybrids selected through phenotypic selection (PS) and genomic selection (GS) under well-watered (WW) and managed drought stress (WS) conditions in Kenya, and (2) compare the cost-benefit analysis of GS and PS. For this study, we used two experimental maize data sets (stage I and stage II yield trials). The stage I data set consisted of 1492 doubled haploid (DH) lines genotyped with rAmpSeq SNPs. A subset of these lines (855) representing various DH populations within the stage I cohort was crossed with an individual single-cross tester chosen to complement each population. These testcross hybrids were evaluated in replicated trials under WW and WS conditions for grain yield and other agronomic traits, while the remaining 637 DH lines were predicted using the 855 lines as a training set. The second data set (stage II) consists of 348 DH lines from the first data set. Among these 348 best DH lines, 172 lines selected were solely based on GEBVs, and 176 lines were selected based on phenotypic performance. Each of the 348 DH lines were crossed with three common testers from complementary heterotic groups, and the resulting 1042 testcross hybrids and six commercial checks were evaluated in four to five WW locations and one WS condition in Kenya. For stage I trials, the cross-validated prediction accuracy for grain yield was 0.67 and 0.65 under WW and WS conditions, respectively. We found similar responses to selection using PS and GS for grain yield other agronomic traits under WW and WS conditions. The top 15% of hybrids advanced through GS and PS gave 21%-23% higher grain yield under WW and 51%-52% more grain yield under WS than the mean of the checks. The GS reduced the cost by 32% over the PS with similar selection gains. We concluded that the use of GS for yield under WW and WS conditions in maize can produce selection candidates with similar performance as those generated from conventional PS, but at a lower cost, and therefore, should be incorporated into maize breeding pipelines to increase breeding program efficiency.

Pre-pubertal growth, muscle and fat accumulation in male and female sheep-Relationships with metabolic hormone concentrations, timing of puberty and reproductive outcomes

Metabolic homeostasis is aligned with changes in growth and body composition, through processes mediated by circulating metabolites and metabolic hormones, and is eventually linked to reproductive success. In the present study with sheep, we determined the relationships among phenotypic and genotypic rates of growth, muscle and fat accumulation, and the circulating concentrations of metabolic and tested for relationships with the timing of puberty and subsequent reproductive outcomes. We used 64 females and 62 males with known phenotypic values for depth of eye muscle (EMD) and fat (FAT) and known Australian Sheep Breeding Values at post-weaning age for live weight (PWT), depth of eye muscle (PEMD) and depth of fat (PFAT). Blood plasma sampled every 20 min for 8 hr via was assayed for growth hormone (GH), insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), insulin, leptin, ghrelin, follistatin, glucose and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA). In males, PWT was positively related to the concentrations of GH, follistatin and glucose, whereas FAT and PFAT were positively related to IGF-I concentrations (p < .01). Testosterone concentration was negatively related to muscle variables (p < .001) and to PFAT (p < .05). In females, the only significant relationship detected was the positive link between EMD and insulin concentrations (p < .05). Reproductive variables were only measured in females. Live weight at first oestrus was related positively to insulin concentration and negatively to GH concentration (p < .05). No other relationships with reproductive variables were significant. The relationships that were detected suggest subtle differences between the sexes in the way their metabolic homeostasis responds to changes in the rates of growth, and muscle and fat accumulation, perhaps due to interference by testosterone in the males.

Drought affects the coordination of belowground and aboveground resource-related traits in Solidago canadensis in China

Quantifying patterns of variation and coordination of plant functional traits can help to understand the mechanisms underlying both invasiveness and adaptation of plants. Little is known about the coordinated variations of performance and functional traits of different organs in invasive plants, especially in response to their adaptation to environmental stressors. To identify the responses of the invasive species Solidago canadensis to drought, 180 individuals were randomly collected from 15 populations and 212 ramets were replanted in a greenhouse to investigate both the response and coordination between root and leaf functional traits. Drought significantly decreased plant growth and most of the root and leaf functional traits, that is, root length, surface area, volume and leaf size, number, and mass fraction, except for the root length ratio and root mass fraction. Phenotypic plasticity was higher in root traits than in leaf traits in response to drought, and populations did not differ significantly. The plasticity of most root functional traits, that is, root length (RL), root surface area (RSA), root volume (RV), and root mass fraction (RMF), were significantly positively correlated with biomass between control and drought. However, the opposite was found for leaf functional traits, that is, specific leaf area (SLA), leaf area ratio (LAR), and leaf mass fraction (LMF). Drought enhanced the relationship between root and leaf, that is, 26 pairwise root-leaf traits were significantly correlated under drought, while only 15 pairwise root-leaf traits were significantly correlated under control conditions. Significant correlations were found between biomass and all measured functional traits except for leaf size. RV, root length ratio, RMF, total area of leaves, and LMF responded differently to water availability. These responses enable S. canadensis to cope with drought conditions and may help to explain the reason of the vast ecological amplitude of this species.

Climatic factors and species range position predict sexually antagonistic selection across taxa

Sex differences in selection are ubiquitous in sexually reproducing organisms. When the genetic basis of traits is shared between the sexes, such sexually antagonistic selection (SAS) creates a potential constraint on adaptive evolution. Theory and laboratory experiments suggest that environmental variation and the degree of local adaptation may all affect the frequency and intensity of SAS. Here, we capitalize on a large database of over 700 spatially or temporally replicated estimates of sex-specific phenotypic selection from wild populations, combined with data on microclimates and geographical range information. We performed a meta-analysis to test three predictions from SAS theory, that selection becomes more concordant between males and females: (1) in more stressful environments, (2) in more variable environments and (3) closer to the edge of the species' range. We find partial empirical support for all three predictions. Within-study analyses indicate SAS decreases in extreme environments, as indicated by a relationship with maximum temperature, minimum precipitation and evaporative potential (PET). Across studies, we found that the average level of SAS at high latitudes was lower, where environmental conditions are typically less stable. Finally, we found evidence for reduced SAS in populations that are far from the centre of their geographical range. However, and notably, we also found some evidence of reduced average strength of selection in these populations, which is in contrast to predictions from classical theoretical models on range limit evolution. Our results suggest that environmental lability and species range position predictably influence sex-specific selection and sexual antagonism in the wild.This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking local adaptation with the evolution of sex differences'.

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree-derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so-called "paradox of stasis." To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies-which have largely been limited to birds and mammals-to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

Under global warming, the survival of many populations of sedentary organisms in seasonal environments will largely depend on their ability to cope with warming in situ by means of phenotypic plasticity or adaptive evolution. This is particularly true in high-latitude environments, where current growing seasons are short, and expected temperature increases large. In such short-growing season environments, the timing of growth and reproduction is critical to survival. Here, we use the unique setting provided by a natural geothermal soil warming gradient (Hengill geothermal area, Iceland) to study the response of Cerastium fontanum flowering phenology to temperature. We hypothesized that trait expression and phenotypic selection on flowering phenology are related to soil temperature, and tested the hypothesis that temperature-driven differences in selection on phenology have resulted in genetic differentiation using a common garden experiment. In the field, phenology was related to soil temperature, with plants in warmer microsites flowering earlier than plants at colder microsites. In the common garden, plants responded to spring warming in a counter-gradient fashion; plants originating from warmer microsites flowered relatively later than those originating from colder microsites. A likely explanation for this pattern is that plants from colder microsites have been selected to compensate for the shorter growing season by starting development at lower temperatures. However, in our study we did not find evidence of variation in phenotypic selection on phenology in relation to temperature, but selection consistently favoured early flowering. Our results show that soil temperature influences trait expression and suggest the existence of genetically based variation in flowering phenology leading to counter-gradient local adaptation along a gradient of soil temperatures. An important implication of our results is that observed phenotypic responses of phenology to global warming might often be a combination of short-term plastic responses and long-term evolutionary responses, acting in different directions.

No evidence that seed predators constrain pollinator-mediated trait evolution in a tropical vine

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Turnover in biotic communities across heterogeneous landscapes is expected to lead to variation in interactions among plants, their mutualists, and their antagonists. Across a fragmented landscape in northern Costa Rica, populations of the euphorb vine Dalechampia scandens vary widely in mating systems and associated blossom traits. Previous work suggested that populations are well adapted to the local reliability of pollination by apid and megachilid bees. We tested whether variation in the intensity of predispersal seed predation by seed weevils in the genus Nanobaris also contributes to the observed variation in blossom traits.

METHODS

We studied spatiotemporal variation in the relationships between floral advertisement and the probability of seed predation within three focal populations. Then we assessed among-population covariation of predation rate, pollination reliability, mating system, and blossom traits across 20 populations.

KEY RESULTS

The probability of seed predation was largely unrelated to variation in floral advertisement both within focal populations and among the larger sample of populations. The rate of seed predation was only weakly associated with the rate of cross-pollination (allogamy) in each population but tended to be proportionally greater in populations experiencing less reliable pollination.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that geographic variation in the intensity of antagonistic interactions have had only minor modifying effects on the evolutionary trajectories of floral advertisement in plant populations in this system. Thus, pollinator-driven floral trait evolution in D. scandens in the study area appears not to be influenced by conflicting seed-predator-mediated selection.