Childhood maltreatment and resting-state network connectivity: The risk-buffering role of positive parenting

Unraveling the neurobiological foundations of childhood maltreatment is important due to the persistent associations with adverse mental health outcomes. However, the mechanisms through which abuse and neglect disturb resting-state network connectivity remain elusive. Moreover, it remains unclear if positive parenting can mitigate the negative impact of childhood maltreatment on network connectivity. We analyzed a cohort of 194 adolescents and young adults (aged 14-25, 47.42% female) from the Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network (NSPN) to investigate the impact of childhood abuse and neglect on resting-state network connectivity. Specifically, we examined the SAN, DMN, FPN, DAN, and VAN over time. We also explored the moderating role of positive parenting. The results showed that childhood abuse was linked to stronger connectivity within the SAN and VAN, as well as between the DMN-DAN, DMN-VAN, DMN-SAN, SAN-DAN, FPN-DAN, SAN-VAN, and VAN-DAN networks about 18 months later. Positive parenting during childhood buffered the negative impact of childhood abuse on network connectivity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate the protective effect of positive parenting on network connectivity following childhood abuse. These findings not only highlight the importance of positive parenting but also lead to a better understanding of the neurobiology and resilience mechanisms of childhood maltreatment.

Evolutionary plant-pollinator responses to anthropogenic land-use change: impacts on ecosystem services

Agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales, including increased use of agrochemicals and loss of semi-natural habitats, is a major driver of insect declines and other community changes. Efforts to understand and mitigate these effects have traditionally focused on ecological responses. At the same time, adaptations to pesticide use and habitat fragmentation in both insects and flowering plants show the potential for rapid evolution. Yet we lack an understanding of how such evolutionary responses may propagate within and between trophic levels with ensuing consequences for conservation of species and ecological functions in agroecosystems. Here, we review the literature on the consequences of agricultural intensification on plant and animal evolutionary responses and interactions. We present a novel conceptualization of evolutionary change induced by agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales and emphasize direct and indirect effects of rapid evolution on ecosystem services. We exemplify by focusing on economically and ecologically important interactions between plants and pollinators. We showcase available eco-evolutionary theory and plant-pollinator modelling that can improve predictions of how agricultural intensification affects interaction networks, and highlight available genetic and trait-focused methodological approaches. Specifically, we focus on how spatial genetic structure affects the probability of propagated responses, and how the structure of interaction networks modulates effects of evolutionary change in individual species. Thereby, we highlight how combined trait-based eco-evolutionary modelling, functionally explicit quantitative genetics, and genomic analyses may shed light on conditions where evolutionary responses impact important ecosystem services.

Estimated population-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against all-cause pneumonia mortality among unvaccinated age groups in five Latin American countries

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multi-country study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile.

METHODS

Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000-2019, with 1,795,789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the post-vaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends.

RESULTS

No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among ≥65 years in Chile.

DISCUSSION

While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

The propagation of disturbances in ecological networks

Despite the development of network science, we lack clear heuristics for how far different disturbance types propagate within and across species interaction networks. We discuss the mechanisms of disturbance propagation in ecological networks, and propose that disturbances can be categorized into structural, functional, and transmission types according to their spread and effect on network structure and functioning. We describe the properties of species and their interaction networks and metanetworks that determine the indirect, spatial, and temporal extent of propagation. We argue that the sampling scale of ecological studies may have impeded predictions regarding the rate and extent that a disturbance spreads, and discuss directions to help ecologists to move towards a predictive understanding of the propagation of impacts across interacting communities and ecosystems.

DP2LM: leveraging deep learning approach for estimation and hypothesis testing on mediation effects with high-dimensional mediators and complex confounders

Traditional linear mediation analysis has inherent limitations when it comes to handling high-dimensional mediators. Particularly, accurately estimating and rigorously inferring mediation effects is challenging, primarily due to the intertwined nature of the mediator selection issue. Despite recent developments, the existing methods are inadequate for addressing the complex relationships introduced by confounders. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel approach called DP2LM (Deep neural network-based Penalized Partially Linear Mediation). This approach incorporates deep neural network techniques to account for nonlinear effects in confounders and utilizes the penalized partially linear model to accommodate high dimensionality. Unlike most existing works that concentrate on mediator selection, our method prioritizes estimation and inference on mediation effects. Specifically, we develop test procedures for testing the direct and indirect mediation effects. Theoretical analysis shows that the tests maintain the Type-I error rate. In simulation studies, DP2LM demonstrates its superior performance as a modeling tool for complex data, outperforming existing approaches in a wide range of settings and providing reliable estimation and inference in scenarios involving a considerable number of mediators. Further, we apply DP2LM to investigate the mediation effect of DNA methylation on cortisol stress reactivity in individuals who experienced childhood trauma, uncovering new insights through a comprehensive analysis.

Season-specific impacts of climate change on canopy-forming seaweed communities

Understory assemblages associated with canopy-forming species such as trees, kelps, and rockweeds should respond strongly to climate stressors due to strong canopy-understory interactions. Climate change can directly and indirectly modify these assemblages, particularly during more stressful seasons and climate scenarios. However, fully understanding the seasonal impacts of different climate conditions on canopy-reliant assemblages is difficult due to a continued emphasis on studying single-species responses to a single future climate scenario during a single season. To examine these emergent effects, we used mesocosm experiments to expose seaweed assemblages associated with the canopy-forming golden rockweed, Silvetia compressa, to elevated temperature and pCO2 conditions reflecting two projected greenhouse emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 [low] & RCP 4.5 [moderate]). Assemblages were grown in the presence and absence of Silvetia, and in two seasons. Relative to ambient conditions, predicted climate scenarios generally suppressed Silvetia biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. However, these effects varied seasonally-both future scenarios reduced Silvetia biomass in summer, but only the moderate scenario did so in winter. These reductions shifted the assemblage, with more extreme shifts occurring in summer. Contrarily, future scenarios did not shift assemblages within Silvetia Absent treatments, suggesting that climate primarily affected assemblages indirectly through changes in Silvetia. Mesocosm experiments were coupled with a field Silvetia removal experiment to simulate the effects of climate-mediated Silvetia loss on natural assemblages. Consistent with the mesocosm experiment, Silvetia loss resulted in season-specific assemblage shifts, with weaker effects observed in winter. Together, our study supports the hypotheses that climate-mediated changes to canopy-forming species can indirectly affect the associated assemblage, and that these effects vary seasonally. Such seasonality is important to consider as it may provide periods of recovery when conditions are less stressful, especially if we can reduce the severity of future climate scenarios.

Predator home range size mediates indirect interactions between prey species in an arctic vertebrate community

Indirect interactions are widespread among prey species that share a common predator, but the underlying mechanisms driving these interactions are often unclear, and our ability to predict their outcome is limited. Changes in behavioural traits that impact predator space use could be a key proximal mechanism mediating indirect interactions, but there is little empirical evidence of the causes and consequences of such behavioural-numerical response in multispecies systems. Here, we investigate the complex ecological relationships between seven prey species sharing a common predator. We used a path analysis approach on a comprehensive 9-year data set simultaneously tracking predator space use, prey densities and prey mortality rate on key species of a simplified Arctic food web. We show that high availability of a clumped and spatially predictable prey (goose eggs) leads to a twofold reduction in predator (arctic fox) home range size, which increases local predator density and strongly decreases nest survival of an incidental prey (American golden plover). On the contrary, a scattered cyclic prey with potentially lower spatial predictability (lemming) had a weaker effect on fox space use and an overall positive impact on the survival of incidental prey. These contrasting effects underline the importance of studying behavioural responses of predators in multiprey systems and to explicitly integrate behavioural-numerical responses in multispecies predator-prey models.

High importance of indirect evolutionary rescue in a small food web

Evolutionary rescue may allow species to survive environmental change, but how this mechanism operates in food webs is poorly understood. Here, the evolutionary rescue was investigated in a small model food web, systematically allowing the evolution of each single species in order to reveal how its adaptation affects the persistence of itself and others. The impact of evolution was highly species-specific and not necessarily positive: only one species, the specialist predator, consistently had a positive impact on overall persistence. Most strikingly, evolution overwhelmingly affected other species: rescue of others (indirect rescue) was far more frequent than self-rescue, and negative effects were nearly always indirect. This demonstrates that evolutionary rescue in food webs is inextricably bound up with species interactions, as the effects of evolution in one species ripple through the entire community. It is therefore critically important to consider the food web context in efforts to understand how species may survive global change.

The diversity of animals identified as keystone species

Although the keystone species concept was conceived of over 50 years ago, contemporary efforts to synthesize related literature have been limited. Our objective was to create a list of keystone animal species identified in the literature and to examine the variation in the traits of species and the ecosystem influences they elicit. We documented 230 species considered keystones. A clustering analysis classified them into five archetypes based on combinations of their taxonomic class, body size, trophic level, and role (consumers, modifiers, or prey). Although conservation and public perception of keystones primarily focuses on large vertebrate consumers, our analysis reveals that researchers have defined a wide diversity of keystone species, with large variation in associated ecosystem processes. Future research may confront ambiguity in the definition of keystone status, as well as clarify the type, abundance, and quality of data required to assign the term. Identifying keystones with increased rigor would not only enrich the literature but also inform intervention to safeguard threatened keystones and their associated influences on ecosystems.

Connecting higher-order interactions with ecological stability in experimental aquatic food webs

Community ecology is built on theories that represent the strength of interactions between species as pairwise links. Higher-order interactions (HOIs) occur when a species changes the pairwise interaction between a focal pair. Recent theoretical work has highlighted the stabilizing role of HOIs for large, simulated communities, yet it remains unclear how important higher-order effects are in real communities. Here, we used experimental communities of aquatic protists to examine the relationship between HOIs and stability (as measured by the persistence of a species in a community). We cultured a focal pair of consumers in the presence of additional competitors and a predator and collected time series data of their abundances. We then fitted competition models with and without HOIs to measure interaction strength between the focal pair across different community compositions. We used survival analysis to measure the persistence of individual species. We found evidence that additional species positively affected persistence of the focal species and that HOIs were present in most of our communities. However, persistence was only linked to HOIs for one of the focal species. Our results vindicate community ecology theory positing that species interactions may deviate from assumptions of pairwise interactions, opening avenues to consider possible consequences for coexistence and stability.

Predator-mediated interactions through changes in predator home range size can lead to local prey exclusion

The strength of indirect biotic interactions is difficult to quantify in the wild and can alter community composition. To investigate whether the presence of a prey species affects the population growth rate of another prey species, we quantified predator-mediated interaction strength using a multi-prey mechanistic model of predation and a population matrix model. Models were parametrized using behavioural, demographic and experimental data from a vertebrate community that includes the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), a predator feeding on lemmings and eggs of various species such as sandpipers and geese. We show that the positive effects of the goose colony on sandpiper nesting success (due to reduction of search time for sandpiper nests) were outweighed by the negative effect of an increase in fox density. The fox numerical response was driven by changes in home range size. As a result, the net interaction from the presence of geese was negative and could lead to local exclusion of sandpipers. Our study provides a rare empirically based model that integrates mechanistic multi-species functional responses and behavioural processes underlying the predator numerical response. This is an important step forward in our ability to quantify the consequences of predation for community structure and dynamics.

Copepod life history evolution under high- and low-food regimes

Copepods play a critical role in the carbon cycle of the planet - they mediate the sequestration of carbon into the deep ocean and are the trophic link between phytoplankton and marine food webs. Global change stressors that decrease copepod productivity create the potential for catastrophic positive feedback loops. Accordingly, a growing list of studies examine the evolutionary capacity of copepods to adapt to the two primary stressors associated with global change: warmer temperatures and lower pH. But the evolutionary capacity of copepods to adapt to changing food regimes, the third major stressor associated with global change, remains unknown. We used experimental evolution to explore how a 10-fold difference in food availability affects life history evolution in the copepod, Tisbe sp. over 2 years, and spanning 30+ generations. Different food regimes evoked evolutionary responses across the entire copepod life history: we observed evolution in body size, size-fecundity relationships and offspring investment strategies. Our results suggest that changes to food regimes reshape life histories and that cryptic evolution in traits such as body size is likely. We demonstrate that evolution in response to changes in ocean productivity will alter consumer life histories and may distort trophic links in marine foodchains. Evolution in response to changing phytoplankton productivity may alter the efficacy of the global carbon pump in ways that have not been anticipated until now.

Parasites as ecosystem modulators: foliar pathogens suppress top-down effects of large herbivores

Parasites can catalyze or inhibit interactions between their hosts and other species, but the ecosystem-level effects of such interaction modifications are poorly understood. We conducted a large-scale field experiment in temperate grasslands of China to understand how foliar fungal pathogens influenced top-down effects of cattle on plant diversity and productivity. When foliar pathogens were suppressed, cattle grazing strongly reduced biomass of the dominant grass, Leymus chinensis, generating competitive release that significantly increased community-level species richness and evenness. In the absence of grazing, pathogen attack on L. chinensis had no measurable effect on host biomass. However, pathogens disrupted top-down effects of herbivory by inhibiting grazing effects on plant biomass and species richness. Mechanistically, fungal pathogens were linked to increased alkaloid and reduced nitrogen levels in leaf tissue, which appeared to deter cattle grazing on L. chinensis. In conclusion, foliar pathogens can suppress top-down effects of large herbivores on grassland community composition and ecosystem function by modifying the strength of their host's interactions with dominant consumers. Parasites may act as modulators of ecosystem function when their direct effects on host abundance are overshadowed by powerful influences on host traits that modify their interactions with competitors, herbivores, or predators.

Context-dependent responses of terrestrial invertebrates to anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment: A meta-analysis

Anthropogenic increases in nitrogen (N) concentrations in the environment are affecting plant diversity and ecosystems worldwide, but relatively little is known about N impacts on terrestrial invertebrate communities. Here, we performed an exploratory meta-analysis of 4365 observations from 126 publications reporting on the richness (number of taxa) or abundance (number of individuals per taxon) of terrestrial arthropods or nematodes in relation to N addition. We found that the response of invertebrates to N enrichment is highly dependent on both species' traits and local climate. The abundance of arthropods with incomplete metamorphosis, including agricultural pest species, increased in response to N enrichment. In contrast, arthropods exhibiting complete or no metamorphosis, including pollinators and detritivores, showed a declining abundance trend with increasing N enrichment, particularly in warmer climates. These contrasting and context-dependent responses may explain why we detected no overall response of arthropod richness. For nematodes, the abundance response to N enrichment was dependent on mean annual precipitation and varied between feeding guilds. We found a declining trend in abundance with N enrichment in dry areas and an increasing trend in wet areas, with slopes differing between feeding guilds. For example, at mean levels of precipitation, bacterivore abundance showed a positive trend in response to N addition while fungivore abundance declined. We further observed an overall decline in nematode richness with N addition. These N-induced changes in invertebrate communities could have negative consequences for various ecosystem functions and services, including those contributing to human food production.

Should relational effects be considered in health care priority setting?

It is uncontroversial to claim that the extent to which health care interventions benefit patients is a relevant consideration for health care priority setting. However, when effects accrue to the individual patient, effects of a more indirect kind may accrue to other individuals as well, such as the patient's children, friends, or partner. If, and if so how, such relational effects should be considered relevant in priority setting is contentious. In this paper, we illustrate this question by using disease-modifying drugs for Alzheimer's disease as a case in point. The ethical analysis begins by sketching the so-called prima facie case for ascribing moral weight to relational effects and then moves on to consider a number of objections to it. We argue that, whereas one set of objections may be dismissed, there is another set of arguments that poses more serious challenges for including relational effects in priority setting.

Nitrogen enrichment and foliar fungal pathogens affect the mechanisms of multispecies plant coexistence

Changes in resources (e.g. nitrogen) and enemies (e.g. foliar pathogens) are key drivers of plant diversity and composition. However, their effects have not been connected to the niche and fitness differences that determine multispecies coexistence. Here, we combined a structuralist theoretical approach with a detailed grassland experiment factorially applying nitrogen addition and foliar fungal pathogen suppression to evaluate the joint effect of nitrogen and pathogens on niche and fitness differences, across a gradient from two to six interacting species. Nitrogen addition and pathogen suppression modified species interaction strengths and intrinsic growth rates, leading to reduced multispecies fitness differences. However, contrary to expected, we also observed that they promote stabilising niche differences. Although these modifications did not substantially alter species richness, they predicted major changes in community composition. Indirect interactions between species explained these community changes in smaller assemblages (three and four species) but lost importance in favour of direct pairwise interactions when more species were involved (five and six). Altogether, our work shows that explicitly considering the number of interacting species is critical for better understanding the direct and indirect processes by which nitrogen enrichment and pathogen communities shape coexistence in grasslands.

The longitudinal associations between bullying perpetration, bullying victimization, and internalizing symptoms: Bidirectionality and mediation by friend support

Internalizing symptoms have been linked to bullying perpetration and victimization in adolescence. However, the directions of any causal relationships remain unclear, and limited research has identified the mechanisms that explain the associations. Given the salience of peer relationships during the teenage years, we examine whether perceived support from friends is one such mechanism. By using a transactional framework and four waves of longitudinal panel data on over 900 youth, we test both cross-lagged and indirect associations between bullying perpetration, bullying victimization, internalizing symptoms, and perceived friend support. Our method represents one of the most rigorous tests to date of the mutual influences among these factors. The results show that internalizing symptoms and perceived friend support were reciprocally linked to bullying victimization, but perceived support did not predict internalizing symptoms, and bullying perpetration neither preceded nor followed perceived support or internalizing symptoms. There were no significant indirect paths between bullying involvement and internalizing symptoms through perceived friend support. The results provide only partial support for a transactional model in which bullying victimization, support, and internalizing symptoms are reciprocally related. The implications of these findings for theory, future research, and practice are discussed.

Pandemic-Related Stress and Other Emotional Difficulties in a Sample of Men and Women Living in Romantic Relationships during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study examined the extent to which relationship quality affects variability in perceived stress and other emotional difficulties associated with the pandemic. The study was conducted 2-17 March 2022 using a self-administered online survey. The sample size consisted of 1405 individuals who were in a romantic relationship. The scales used in the study included the PSS-4, ECR-RS, SLS-12 and the standardized Pandemic-ED scale (RMSEA = 0.032). Increased stress levels (U = -5.741), pandemic-related emotional difficulties (U = -8.720), worse romantic relationship quality (U = -2.564) and more frequent anxiety-related attachment (U = -3.371) were characteristic of women. A hierarchical regression model for stress showed that age (b = -0.143), financial situation (b = 0.024), the ECR-RS scores (b = 0.219) and pandemic-related emotional difficulties (b = 0.358) proved to be statistically significant predictors of stress. The hierarchical regression model for pandemic-related emotional difficulties indicated five predictors: gender (b = 0.166), education (b = 0.071), financial situation (b = 0.203), scores on the ECR-RS scale (b = 0.048) and stress (b = 0.367). The SEM model used has satisfactory fit indices (RMSEA = 0.051), romantic relationship quality scores and attachment styles interact with the variability of perceived pandemic-related stress and burdens. The determined model offers conclusions relevant to clinicians working with individuals and couples during periods of intense stress.

Impact of COVID-19 measures on the health and healthcare of children in East-Africa: Scoping review

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is of grave concern. As scientific data is being collected about the nature of COVID-19, government leaders and policy makers are challenged. They might feel pressured to take strong measures to stop virus spread. However, decisions could cause more harm than do good. This study maps all existing literature regarding the impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the health and healthcare of children in East-Africa.

METHODS

This scoping review follows Population Concept Context guidelines of Arksey and O'Malley and PRISMA 2020 checklist. PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were searched. All peer-reviewed literature published in English between January 2020 and October 2022 was considered. Initial screening of titles and abstracts was undertaken independently by two reviewers, with a third available in case of doubt. This was followed by full-text screening involving two independent reviewers.

RESULTS

In total, 70 studies were included. Eight containment measures affecting children's health and healthcare were distinguished: lockdowns, school closures, physical distancing, travel restrictions, business closures, stay-at-home orders, curfews, quarantine measures with contact tracing. The consensus in the studies is that containment measures could minimise COVID-19 spread but have adverse indirect effects on children in East-Africa. Seven indirect effects were distinguished: economic damage, limited education access, food insecurity, child abuse, limited healthcare access, disrupted health-programs, and mental health challenges.

CONCLUSION

Government leaders and policy makers should take adverse indirect effects of COVID-19 measures into account, particularly in resource-limited regions such as East-Africa, apply a holistic approach, and strengthen socioeconomic and health-systems to protect the most vulnerable.

Herbivory modifies plant symbiont number and impact on host plant performance in the field

Species interactions are a unifying theme in ecology and evolution. Both fields are currently moving beyond their historical focus on isolated pairwise relationships to understand how ecological communities affect focal interactions. Additional species can modify both the number of interactions and the fitness consequences of each interaction (i.e., selection). Although only selection affects the evolution of the focal interaction, the two are often conflated, limiting our understanding of the evolution of multispecies interactions. We manipulated aboveground herbivory on the legume Medicago lupulina in the field and quantified its effect on number of symbionts and the per-symbiont impact on plant performance in two belowground symbioses: mutualistic rhizobia bacteria (Ensifer meliloti) and parasitic root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne hapla). We found that herbivores modified the number of rhizobia nodules, as well as the benefit per nodule. However, each effect was specific to a distinct herbivory regime: natural herbivory affected nodule number, whereas leafhoppers (Cicadellidae) weakened the per nodule benefit. We did not detect any effect of herbivory on nematode gall number or the cost of infection. Our data demonstrate that distinguishing between symbiont number from the fitness consequences of symbiosis is crucial to accurately infer how pairwise interactions will evolve in a community.

Through Myths, Attitudes, or Norms? The Relationship Between Low Self-Control and Sexual Aggression

This study tested the direct and indirect effects of low self-control on sexual aggression and violence, mediated through rape myth acceptance, date rape attitudes, and promiscuous sexual norms among college-aged men. Self-report data were collected from 369 male college students attending a large university in the southeastern United States. The final model with all three mediators indicated significant mediated effects through date rape attitudes as well as promiscuous sexual norms on sexual aggression; it explained 16% (Cox & Snell) and 23% (Nagelkerke) of the variance. Study findings support the importance of low self-control on sexual aggression among male college students.

A pantropical assessment of deforestation caused by industrial mining

Driven by rapidly increasing demand for mineral resources, both industrial mining and artisanal mining are intensifying across the tropical biome. A number of regional studies have analyzed mining-induced deforestation, but scope and patterns across all tropical countries have not yet been investigated. Focusing on industrial mining, we use geospatial data to quantify direct forest loss within mining sites in 26 countries. We also perform a statistical assessment to test whether industrial mining drives indirect deforestation in the mine surroundings. We show that direct deforestation concentrates only in a few countries, while industrial mining causes indirect deforestation in two-thirds of tropical countries. In order to preserve tropical forests, direct and indirect deforestation impacts of mining projects should be fully considered.

Growing demand for minerals continues to drive deforestation worldwide. Tropical forests are particularly vulnerable to the environmental impacts of mining and mineral processing. Many local- to regional-scale studies document extensive, long-lasting impacts of mining on biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the full scope of deforestation induced by industrial mining across the tropics is yet unknown. Here, we present a biome-wide assessment to show where industrial mine expansion has caused the most deforestation from 2000 to 2019. We find that 3,264 km2 of forest was directly lost due to industrial mining, with 80% occurring in only four countries: Indonesia, Brazil, Ghana, and Suriname. Additionally, controlling for other nonmining determinants of deforestation, we find that mining caused indirect forest loss in two-thirds of the investigated countries. Our results illustrate significant yet unevenly distributed and often unmanaged impacts on these biodiverse ecosystems. Impact assessments and mitigation plans of industrial mining activities must address direct and indirect impacts to support conservation of the world’s tropical forests.

Priority effects in coral-macroalgae interactions can drive alternate community paths in the absence of top-down control

The outcomes of species interactions can vary greatly in time and space with the outcomes of some interactions determined by priority effects. On coral reefs, benthic algae rapidly colonize disturbed substrate. In the absence of top-down control from herbivorous fishes, these algae can inhibit the recruitment of reef-building corals, leading to a persistent phase shift to a macroalgae-dominated state. Yet, corals may also inhibit colonization by macroalgae, and thus the effects of herbivores on algal communities may be strongest following disturbances that reduce coral cover. Here, we report results from experiments conducted on the fore reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, where we: 1) tested the ability of macroalgae to invade coral-dominated and coral-depauperate communities under different levels of herbivory, 2) explored the ability of juvenile corals (Pocillopora spp.) to suppress macroalgae, and 3) quantified the direct and indirect effects of fish herbivores and corallivores on juvenile corals. We found that macroalgae proliferated when herbivory was low but only in recently disturbed communities where coral cover was also low. When coral cover was < 10%, macroalgae increased 20-fold within one year under reduced herbivory conditions relative to high herbivory controls. Yet, when coral cover was high (50%), macroalgae were suppressed irrespective of the level of herbivory despite ample space for algal colonization. Once established in communities with low herbivory and low coral cover, macroalgae suppressed recruitment of coral larvae, reducing the capacity for coral replenishment. However, when we experimentally established small juvenile corals (2 cm diameter) following a disturbance, juvenile corals inhibited macroalgae from invading local neighborhoods, even in the absence of herbivores, indicating a strong priority effect in macroalgae-coral interactions. Surprisingly, fishes that initially facilitated coral recruitment by controlling algae had a net negative effect on juvenile corals via predation. Corallivores reduced growth rates of corals exposed to fishes by ~ 30% relative to fish exclosures despite increased competition with macroalgae within the exclosures. These results highlight that different processes are important for structuring coral reef ecosystems at different successional stages and underscore the need to consider multiple ecological processes and historical contingencies to predict coral community dynamics.

From trees to fleas: masting indirectly affects flea abundance on a rodent host

Mast seeding causes strong fluctuations in populations of forest animals. Thus, this phenomenon can be used as a natural experiment to examine how variation in host abundance affects parasite loads. We investigated fleas infesting yellow-necked mice in beech forest after two mast and two non-mast years. We tested two mutually exclusive scenarios: (1) as predicted by classical models of density-dependent transmission, an increase in host density will cause an increase in ectoparasite abundance (defined as the number of parasites per host), vs. (2) an increase in host density will cause a decline in flea abundance ("dilution", which is thought to occur when parasite population growth is slower than that of the host). In addition, we assessed whether masting alters the relationship between host traits (sex and body mass) and flea abundance. We found a hump-shaped relationship between host and flea abundance. Thus, the most basic predictions are too simple to describe ectoparasite dynamics in this system. In addition, masting modified seasonal dynamics of flea abundance, but did not affect the relationship between host traits and flea abundance (individuals with the highest body mass hosted the most fleas; after controlling for body mass, parasite abundance did not vary between sexes). Our results demonstrate that pulses of tree reproduction can indirectly, through changes in host densities, drive patterns of ectoparasite infestation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Accounting for direct and indirect cumulative effects of anthropogenic pressures on salmon- and herring-linked land and ocean ecosystems

Salmon and herring support both land and ocean predators and are critical to ecosystem resilience. Their linkages across land and sea realms make them highly susceptible to human activities, which can have flow-on effects up the food web. We quantify and compare the potential cumulative effects of human-driven pressures on interdependent species in salmon- and herring-linked ecosystems of western Canada using a risk assessment methodology. Adding indirect risks resulted in 68% greater total risks for land species than for direct risk alone, versus 15% for marine species. Inclusion of climate change pressures resulted in the greatest change in risk for low trophic marine species and habitats (greater than 25% increase). Forestry-related pressures accounted for the highest risk to all species and projected management of these pressures resulted in a total reduction of risk across all ecosystem components that was more than 14% greater than management of fisheries pressures. Ignoring land food web linkages and pressures underestimated cumulative risk by more than 40% for salmon and herring. This simple framework can be used to evaluate potential risk of existing human uses and future change to inform immediate management of linked land-sea ecosystems and help species avoid the ‘death by a thousand cuts'.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems’.

Invasive grass indirectly alters seasonal patterns in seed predation

Invasive species threaten ecosystems globally, but their impacts can be cryptic when they occur indirectly. Invader phenology can also differ from that of native species, potentially causing seasonality in invader impacts. Yet, it is unclear if invader phenology can drive seasonal patterns in indirect effects. We used a field experiment to test if an invasive grass (Imperata cylindrica) caused seasonal indirect effects by altering rodent foraging and seed predation patterns through time. Using seeds from native longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), we found seed predation was 25% greater, on average, in invaded than control plots, but this effect varied by season. Seed predation was 24-157% greater in invaded plots during spring and autumn months, but invasion had no effect on seed predation in other months. One of the largest effects occurred in October when longleaf pine seeds are dispersed, suggesting potential effects on tree regeneration. Thus, seasonal patterns in indirect effects from invaders may cause underappreciated impacts on ecological communities.

Good Theories in Need of Better Data: Combining Clinical and Social Psychological Approaches to Study the Mechanisms Linking Relationships and Health

The study of intimate relationships and health is a fast-growing discipline with numerous well-developed theories, many of which outline specific interpersonal behaviors and psychological pathways that may give rise to good or poor health. In this article, we argue that the study of relationships and health can move toward interrogating these mechanisms with greater precision and detail, but doing so will require a shift in the nature of commonly used research methods in this area. Accordingly, we draw heavily on the science of behavior change and discuss six key methodologies that may galvanize the mechanistic study of relationships and health: dismantling studies, factorial studies, experimental therapeutics, experimental mediation research, multiple assessments, and recursive modeling. We provide empirical examples for each strategy and outline new ways in which a given approach may be used to study the mechanisms linking intimate relationships and health. We conclude by discussing the key challenges and limitations for using these research strategies as well as novel ideas about how to integrate this work into existing paradigms within the field.

Population-specific responses of an insect herbivore to variation in host-plant quality

Anthropogenic climate change poses a substantial challenge to many organisms, to which they need to respond to avoid fitness reductions. Investigating responses to environmental change is particularly interesting in herbivores, as they are potentially affected by indirect effects mediated via variation in host-plant quality. We here use the herbivorous insect Pieris napi to investigate geographic variation in the response to variation in food quality. We performed a common garden experiment using replicated populations from Germany and Italy, and manipulated host quality by growing host plants at different temperature and water regimes. We found that feeding on plants grown at a higher temperature generally diminished the performance of P. napi, evidenced by a prolonged development time and reduced larval growth rate, body mass, fat content, and phenoloxidase activity. Genotype by environment interactions (G × E) were present in several performance traits, indicating that Italian populations (1) respond more strongly to variation in host-plant quality and (2) are more sensitive to poor food quality than German ones. This may reflect a cost of the rapid lifestyle found in Italian populations. Consequently, German populations may be more resilient against environmental perturbations and may perhaps even benefit from warmer temperatures, while Italian populations will likely suffer from the concomitantly reduced host-plant quality. Our study thus exemplifies how investigating G × E may help to better understand the vulnerability of populations to climate change.

Fear dynamically structures the ocean's pelagic zone

Fear of predation can have wide-ranging ecological effects.^1-4 This is especially true in the ocean's pelagic zone, the Earth's largest habitat, where vertical gradients in light and primary productivity force numerous taxa to migrate vertically each night to feed at the surface while minimizing risk from visual predators.^5-7 Despite its importance and the fact that it is driven by spatial differences in perceived risk,⁸ diel vertical migration (DVM) is rarely considered within the "landscape of fear"^3,8,9 framework.¹⁰ It is also far from the only such process in the pelagic zone. We used continuous, year-long records from an upward-looking echosounder and broadband hydrophone at a cabled observatory off Central California, USA, to observe avoidance reactions by several groups of pelagic animals to the presence of their predators. As expected, vertical migration was ubiquitous, but we also observed behaviors at shorter and longer timescales that were best explained by fear of predation. The presence of foraging odontocetes induced immediate diving behavior in mesopelagic sound-scattering layers, and schools of epipelagic fishes induced similar reaction in layers of zooplankton and mesopelagic micronekton. At longer timescales, the presence of fish schools significantly deepened vertical migration, rearranging life throughout the water column. We argue that behavioral reactions to predation risk are common in the pelagic zone at a range of spatiotemporal scales and that our understanding of food webs and biogeochemical cycling in this immense biome will be incomplete unless we account for fear.

The Evolution of Resource Provisioning in Pollination Mutualisms

AbstractResource dynamics influence the contemporary ecology of consumer-resource mutualisms. Suites of resource traits, such as floral nectar components, also evolve in response to different selective pressures, changing the ecological dynamics of the interacting species at the evolutionary equilibrium. Here we explore the evolution of resource-provisioning traits in a biotically pollinated plant that produces nectar as a resource for beneficial consumers. We develop a mathematical model describing natural selection on two quantitative nectar traits: maximum nectar production rate and maximum nectar reservoir volume. We use this model to examine how nectar production dynamics evolve under different ecological conditions that impose varying cost-benefit regimes on resource provisioning. The model results predict that natural selection favors higher nectar production when ecological factors limit the plant or pollinator's abundance (e.g., a lower productivity environment or a higher pollinator conversion efficiency). We also find that nectar traits evolve as a suite in which higher costs of producing one trait select for a compensatory increase in investment in the other trait. This empirically explicit approach to studying the evolution of consumer-resource mutualisms illustrates how natural selection acting via direct and indirect pathways of species interactions generates patterns of resource provisioning seen in natural systems.

Extracellular Vesicles as Natural Delivery Carriers Regulate Oxidative Stress Under Pathological Conditions

Extracellular vesicles are cellular secretory particles that can be used as natural drug delivery carriers. They have successfully delivered drugs including chemotherapeutics, proteins, and genes to treat various diseases. Oxidative stress is an abnormal physiological phenomenon, and it is associated with nearly all diseases. In this short review, we summarize the regulation of EVs on oxidative stress. There are direct effects and indirect effects on the regulation of oxidative stress through EVs. On the one hand, they can deliver antioxidant substances or oxides to recipient cells, directly relieving or aggravating oxidative stress. On the other hand, regulate factors of oxidative stress-related signaling pathways can be delivered to recipient cells by the mediation of EVs, realizing the indirect regulation of oxidative stress. To the best of our knowledge, however, only endogenous drugs have been delivered by EVs to regulate oxidative stress till now. And the heterogeneity of EVs may complicate the regulation of oxidative stress. Therefore, this short review aims to draw more attention to the EVs-based regulation of oxidative stress, and we hope excellent EVs-based delivery carriers that can deliver exogenous drugs to regulate oxidative stress can be exploited.

Direct and indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with pneumonia from formal and informal settlements in Mongolia: an observational study

Background

Within Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, risk factors for pneumonia are concentrated among children living in informal settlements comprised of temporary shelters (gers). We used pneumococcal carriage surveillance among children from formal and informal settlements hospitalised with pneumonia to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against vaccine-type (VT) pneumococcal carriage following a phased introduction of PCV13.

Methods

We enrolled and collected nasopharyngeal swabs from children 2-59 months of age presenting to hospital. Pneumococci were detected using lytA qPCR and serotyped using microarray on a random monthly selection of swabs between November 2015 and March 2019 from two districts in Ulaanbaatar. PCV13 status was determined using written records. We quantified the associations between individual PCV13 status (direct effects) and district-level PCV13 coverage (indirect effects) and VT carriage using generalised estimating equations and explored interactions by settlement type.

Findings

A total of 1 292 swabs from 6 046 participants were tested for pneumococci. Receipt of PCV13 and increasing PCV13 coverage independently reduced the risk of VT carriage. For each percent increase in PCV13 coverage, the adjusted odds of VT carriage decreased by 1•0% (OR 95% CI 0•983-0•996; p=0•001), with a predicted decrease in VT carriage rate from 29•1% to 13•1% as coverage reached 100%. There was a trend towards a slower decline within informal settlements (p=0•100). Adjusted PCV13 vaccine effectiveness against VT carriage was 39•1% (95% CI 11•4-58•1%, p=0•009).

Interpretation

Substantial indirect effects were observed following PCV13 introduction, including among children living within informal settlements.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Assessment of risks to listed species from the use of atrazine in the USA: a perspective

Atrazine is a triazine herbicide used predominantly on corn, sorghum, and sugarcane in the US. Its use potentially overlaps with the ranges of listed (threatened and endangered) species. In response to registration review in the context of the Endangered Species Act, we evaluated potential direct and indirect impacts of atrazine on listed species and designated critical habitats. Atrazine has been widely studied, extensive environmental monitoring and toxicity data sets are available, and the spatial and temporal uses on major crops are well characterized. Ranges of listed species are less well-defined, resulting in overly conservative designations of "May Effect". Preferences for habitat and food sources serve to limit exposure among many listed animal species and animals are relatively insensitive. Atrazine does not bioaccumulate, further diminishing exposures among consumers and predators. Because of incomplete exposure pathways, many species can be eliminated from consideration for direct effects. It is toxic to plants, but even sensitive plants tolerate episodic exposures, such as those occurring in flowing waters. Empirical data from long-term monitoring programs and realistic field data on off-target deposition of drift indicate that many other listed species can be removed from consideration because exposures are below conservative toxicity thresholds for direct and indirect effects. Combined with recent mitigation actions by the registrant, this review serves to refine and focus forthcoming listed species assessment efforts for atrazine.Abbreviations: a.i. = Active ingredient (of a pesticide product). AEMP = Atrazine Ecological Monitoring Program. AIMS = Avian Incident Monitoring SystemArach. = Arachnid (spiders and mites). AUC = Area Under the Curve. BE = Biological Evaluation (of potential effects on listed species). BO = Biological Opinion (conclusion of the consultation between USEPA and the Services with respect to potential effects in listed species). CASM = Comprehensive Aquatic System Model. CDL = Crop Data LayerCN = field Curve Number. CRP = Conservation Reserve Program (lands). CTA = Conditioned Taste Avoidance. DAC = Diaminochlorotriazine (a metabolite of atrazine, also known by the acronym DACT). DER = Data Evaluation Record. EC25 = Concentration causing a specified effect in 25% of the tested organisms. EC50 = Concentration causing a specified effect in 50% of the tested organisms. EC50_RGR = Concentration causing a 50% reduction in relative growth rate. ECOS = Environmental Conservation Online System. EDD = Estimated Daily Dose. EEC = Expected Environmental Concentration. EFED = Environmental Fate and Effects Division (of the USEPA). EFSA = European Food Safety Agency. EIIS = Ecological Incident Information System. ERA = Environmental Risk Assessment. ESA = Endangered Species Act. ESU = Evolutionarily Significant UnitsFAR = Field Application RateFIFRA = Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act. FOIA = Freedom of Information Act (request). GSD = Genus Sensitivity Distribution. HC5 = Hazardous Concentration for ≤ 5% of species. HUC = Hydrologic Unit Code. IBM = Individual-Based Model. IDS = Incident Data System. K_OC = Partition coefficient between water and organic matter in soil or sediment. K_OW = Octanol-Water partition coefficient. LC50 = Concentration lethal to 50% of the tested organisms. LC-MS-MS = Liquid Chromatograph with Tandem Mass Spectrometry. LD50 = Dose lethal to 50% of the tested organisms. LAA = Likely to Adversely Affect. LOAEC = Lowest-Observed-Adverse-Effect Concentration. LOC = Level of Concern. MA = May Affect. MATC = Maximum Acceptable Toxicant Concentration. NAS = National Academy of Sciences. NCWQR = National Center of Water Quality Research. NE = No Effect. NLAA = Not Likely to Adversely Affect. NMFS = National Marine Fisheries Service. NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAEC = No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Concentration. NOAEL = No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Dose-Level. OECD = Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. PNSP = Pesticide National Synthesis Project. PQ = Plastoquinone. PRZM = Pesticide Root Zone Model. PWC = Pesticide in Water Calculator. QWoE = Quantitative Weight of Evidence. RGR = Relative growth rate (of plants). RQ = Risk Quotient. RUD = Residue Unit Doses. SAP = Science Advisory Panel (of the USEPA). SGR = Specific Growth Rate. SI = Supplemental Information. SSD = Species Sensitivity Distribution. SURLAG = Surface Runoff Lag Coefficient. SWAT = Soil & Water Assessment Tool. SWCC = Surface Water Concentration Calculator. UDL = Use Data Layer (for pesticides). USDA = United States Department of Agriculture. USEPA = United States Environmental Protection Agency. USFWS = United States Fish and Wildlife Service. USGS = United States Geological Survey. WARP = Watershed Regressions for Pesticides.

Strong phenotypic trait correlations between mating partners do not result from assortative mating in wild great tits (Parus major)

There is considerable debate about the occurrence of assortative mating between phenotypic traits measured within natural populations. Meta-analyses have implied that assortative mating occurs generally in natural populations, but recent work indicates these conclusions largely result from biased data. Specifically, estimates of phenotypic correlations between mating partners do not solely result from nonrandom associations between individual-level traits of partners but also from other biological processes (joint phenotypic plasticity, indirect genetic effects), methodological practices (observer bias) and other unexplained residual correlations (e.g. correlated measurement error). This paper puts this critique to test. First, we estimated the overall phenotypic correlation between phenotypic traits of mating partners for a wild population of great tits. Second, we estimated various key variance components to reveal the extent to which phenotypic correlations between partners resulted from assortative mating, reversible plasticity, social partner effects and methodological practices. We performed our analyses for a range of phenotypic traits (body mass, breathing rate, exploration behaviour, wing and tarsus length) to derive general conclusions not hinging on the specifics of the traits involved. Our analyses support the conclusion that patterns of assortative mating exist at first glance but occur because of the biasing effects of correlated residuals likely caused by a combination of phenotypic responses to unknown environmental factors or measurement error-not because of intrinsic patterns of assortative mating.

Plant-animal interactions mediate climatic effects on selection on flowering time

Selection on flowering time in plants is often mediated by multiple agents, including climatic conditions and the intensity of mutualistic and antagonistic interactions with animals. These selective agents can have both direct and indirect effects. For example, climate might not only influence phenotypic selection on flowering time directly by affecting plant physiology, but it can also alter selection indirectly by modifying the seasonal activity and relative timing of animals interacting with plants. We used 21 yr of data to identify the drivers of selection on flowering time in the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus, and to examine if antagonistic plant-animal interactions mediate effects of climate on selection. We examined the fitness consequences of vertebrate grazing and predispersal seed predation, and how these effects varied among years and among individuals within years. Although both antagonistic plant-animal interactions had important negative effects on plant fitness, only grazing intensity was consistently related to plant phenology, being higher in early-flowering individuals. Spring temperature influenced the intensity of both plant-animal interactions, as well as the covariance between seed predation and plant phenology. However, only differences in grazing intensity among years were associated with differences in selection on flowering time; the strength of selection for early flowering being stronger in years with lower mean intensity of grazing. Our results illustrate how climatic conditions can influence plant-animal interactions that are important selective agents for plant traits. A broader implication of our findings is that both ecological and evolutionary responses to climatic changes might be indirect, and largely mediated by species interactions.

Direct and Indirect Effectiveness of mRNA Vaccination against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Long-Term Care Facilities, Spain

We conducted a registries-based cohort study of long-term care facility residents >65 years of age offered vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 before March 10, 2021, in Spain. Risk for infection in vaccinated and nonvaccinated persons was compared with risk in the same persons in a period before the vaccination campaign, adjusted by daily-varying incidence and reproduction number. We selected 299,209 persons; 99.0% had >1 dose, 92.6% had 2 doses, and 99.8% of vaccines were Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162b2). For vaccinated persons with no previous infection, vaccine effectiveness was 81.8% (95% CI 81.0%–82.7%), and 11.6 (95% CI 11.3–11.9) cases were prevented per 10,000 vaccinated/day. In those with previous infection, effectiveness was 56.8% (95% CI 47.1%–67.7%). In nonvaccinated residents with no previous infection, risk decreased by up to 81.4% (95% CI 73.3%–90.3%). Our results confirm vaccine effectiveness in this population and suggest indirect protection in nonvaccinated persons.

On the sensitivity of food webs to multiple stressors

Evaluating the effects of multiple stressors on ecosystems is becoming increasingly vital with global changes. The role of species interactions in propagating the effects of stressors, although widely acknowledged, has yet to be formally explored. Here, we conceptualise how stressors propagate through food webs and explore how they affect simulated three-species motifs and food webs of the Canadian St. Lawrence System. We find that overlooking species interactions invariably underestimate the effects of stressors, and that synergistic and antagonistic effects through food webs are prevalent. We also find that interaction type influences a species' susceptibility to stressors; species in omnivory and tri-trophic food chain interactions in particular are sensitive and prone to synergistic and antagonistic effects. Finally, we find that apex predators were negatively affected and mesopredators benefited from the effects of stressors due to their trophic position in the St. Lawrence System, but that species sensitivity is dependent on food web structure. In conceptualising the effects of multiple stressors on food webs, we bring theory closer to practice and show that considering the intricacies of ecological communities is key to assess the net effects of stressors on species.

The indirect impact of COVID-19 large-scale containment measures on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia in older people: a region-wide population-based study in Tuscany, Italy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the indirect effect of COVID-19 large-scale containment measures on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older people during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Tuscany, Italy.

METHODS

A population-based study was carried out on data from the Tuscany healthcare system. The outcome measures were: hospitalization rate for CAP, severity of CAP hospitalizations, and outpatient consumption of antibacterials for CAP in people aged 65 and older. Outcomes were compared between corresponding periods in 2020 (week 1 to 27) and previous years.

RESULTS

Compared with the average of the corresponding periods in the previous 3 years, significant reductions in weekly hospitalization rates for CAP were observed from the week in which the national containment measures were imposed (week 10) until the end of the first COVID-19 wave in July (week 27). There was also a significant decrease in outpatient consumption in all antibacterial classes for CAP.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of large-scale COVID-19 containment measures likely reduced the incidence of CAP in older people during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Tuscany, Italy. Considering this indirect impact of pandemic containment measures on respiratory tract infections may improve the planning of health services during a pandemic in the future.

Comparing Alternative Corrections for Bias in the Bias-Corrected Bootstrap Test of Mediation

Although the bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap is an often-recommended method for testing mediation due to its higher statistical power relative to other tests, it has also been found to have elevated Type I error rates with small sample sizes. Under limitations for participant recruitment, obtaining a larger sample size is not always feasible. Thus, this study examines whether using alternative corrections for bias in the BC bootstrap test of mediation for small sample sizes can achieve equal levels of statistical power without the associated increase in Type I error. A simulation study was conducted to compare Efron and Tibshirani's original correction for bias, z ₀, to six alternative corrections for bias: (a) mean, (b-e) Winsorized mean with 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% trimming in each tail, and (f) medcouple (robust skewness measure). Most variation in Type I error (given a medium effect size of one regression slope and zero for the other slope) and power (small effect size in both regression slopes) was found with small sample sizes. Recommendations for applied researchers are made based on the results. An empirical example using data from the ATLAS drug prevention intervention study is presented to illustrate these results. Limitations and future directions are discussed.

Large herbivores transform plant-pollinator networks in an African savanna

Pollination by animals is a key ecosystem service^1,2 and interactions between plants and their pollinators are a model system for studying ecological networks,^3,4 yet plant-pollinator networks are typically studied in isolation from the broader ecosystems in which they are embedded. The plants visited by pollinators also interact with other consumer guilds that eat stems, leaves, fruits, or seeds. One such guild, large mammalian herbivores, are well-known ecosystem engineers^5-7 and may have substantial impacts on plant-pollinator networks. Although moderate herbivory can sometimes promote plant diversity,⁸ potentially benefiting pollinators, large herbivores might alternatively reduce resource availability for pollinators by consuming flowers,⁹ reducing plant density,¹⁰ and promoting somatic regrowth over reproduction.¹¹ The direction and magnitude of such effects may hinge on abiotic context-in particular, rainfall, which modulates the effects of ungulates on vegetation.¹² Using a long-term, large-scale experiment replicated across a rainfall gradient in central Kenya, we show that a diverse assemblage of native large herbivores, ranging from 5-kg antelopes to 4,000-kg African elephants, limited resource availability for pollinators by reducing flower abundance and diversity; this in turn resulted in fewer pollinator visits and lower pollinator diversity. Exclusion of large herbivores increased floral-resource abundance and pollinator-assemblage diversity, rendering plant-pollinator networks larger, more functionally redundant, and less vulnerable to pollinator extinction. Our results show that species extrinsic to plant-pollinator interactions can indirectly and strongly alter network structure. Forecasting the effects of environmental change on pollination services and interaction webs more broadly will require accounting for the effects of extrinsic keystone species.

Power and Sample Size Determination for Multilevel Mediation in Three-Level Cluster-Randomized Trials

Mediation analyses supply a principal lens to probe the pathways through which a treatment acts upon an outcome because they can dismantle and test the core components of treatments and test how these components function as a coordinated system or theory of action. Experimental evaluation of mediation effects in addition to total effects has become increasingly common but literature has developed only limited guidance on how to plan mediation studies with multi-tiered hierarchical or clustered structures. In this study, we provide methods for computing the power to detect mediation effects in three-level cluster-randomized designs that examine individual- (level one), intermediate- (level two) or cluster-level (level three) mediators. We assess the methods using a simulation and provide examples of a three-level clinic-randomized study (individuals nested within therapists nested within clinics) probing an individual-, intermediate- or cluster-level mediator using the R package PowerUpR and its Shiny application.

Land-use intensity affects the potential for apparent competition within and between habitats

Arthropod communities dwelling in adjacent habitats are able to impact one another via shared natural enemies. In agricultural landscapes, drastic differences in resource availability between crop and non-crop habitats cause variation in insect herbivore densities over short distances, potentially driving inter-habitat effects. Moreover, the composition of the landscape in which the habitats are embedded likely affects realised attack rates from natural enemies via impacts on local arthropod community structure. Here, we examine indirect effects between herbivore species within and between habitat types by calculating the potential for apparent competition between multiple populations. Firstly, we aim to determine how disparities in resource availability impact the strength of the potential for apparent competition occurring between habitats, secondly to examine the impact of landscape composition upon these effects, and finally to couch these observations in reality by investigating the link between the potential for apparent competition and realised attack rates. We used DNA metabarcoding to characterise host-parasitoid interactions within two habitat types (with divergent nutrient inputs) at 11 locations with variable landscape composition within an agroecosystem context. We then used these interaction networks to estimate the potential for apparent competition between each host pair and to compare expected versus realised attack rates across the system. Shared natural enemies were found to structure host herbivore communities within and across habitat boundaries. The size of this effect was related to the resource availability of habitats, such that the habitat with high nutrient input exerted a stronger effect. The overall potential for apparent competition declined with increasing land-use intensity in the surrounding landscape and exhibited a discernible impact on realised attack rates upon herbivore species. Thus, our results suggest that increasing the proportion of perennial habitat in agroecosystems could increase the prevalence of indirect effects such as apparent competition among insect herbivore communities, potentially leading to enhanced population regulation via increased attack rates from natural enemies like parasitoid wasps.

Resilience after natural disasters: the process of harnessing resources in communities differentially exposed to a flood

Background: Disasters negatively impact mental health and well-being. Studying how people adapt and recover after adversity is crucial for disaster preparedness and response. Objective: This study examined how differentially affected communities harness their resources to adapt to the aftermath of a flood. We predicted that stronger individual, interpersonal, and community resources protect against psychosocial resource loss and, through that, are related to fewer symptoms of posttraumatic stress and depression and higher life satisfaction. We also predicted that these effects would be stronger in a flooded community, compared to a threatened, but non-flooded community. Method: Participants were randomly sampled community members from two neighbouring municipalities. One municipality was severely flooded during the 2014 floods in South East Europe (affected community, na = 223), the other was threatened but not flooded (comparison community, nc = 224). Interviews were conducted one and a half years after the disaster using the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale 10-item version, the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, the Community Resources Scale, the Psychosocial Resource Loss Scale, the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5, the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale Revised and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. Results: Stronger individual, interpersonal, and community resources were found to be related to better post-disaster outcomes directly and indirectly through psychosocial resource loss. In the affected community, interpersonal resources and community social capital and engagement were stronger predictors of positive adaptation. In the comparison community, community economic development and trust in community leadership were more important. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that people affected by disasters can harness their individual, interpersonal, and community resources to recover and adapt. Post-disaster interventions should aim to strengthen family and community ties, thus increasing available social support and community connectedness.

Pandemics and maternal health: the indirect effects of COVID-19

Infectious diseases can directly affect women and men differently. During the COVID‐19 pandemic, higher case fatality rates have been observed in men in most countries. There is growing evidence, however, that while organisational changes to healthcare delivery have occurred to protect those vulnerable to the virus (staff and patients), these may lead to indirect, potentially harmful consequences, particularly to vulnerable groups including pregnant women. These encompass reduced access to antenatal and postnatal care, with a lack of in‐person clinics impacting the ability to screen for physical, psychological and social issues such as elevated blood pressure, mental health issues and sex‐based violence. Indirect consequences also encompass a lack of equity when considering the inclusion of pregnant women in COVID‐19 research and their absence from vaccine trials, leading to a lack of safety data for breastfeeding and pregnant women. The risk‐benefit analysis of these changes to healthcare delivery remains to be fully evaluated, but the battle against COVID‐19 cannot come at the expense of losing existing quality standards in other areas of healthcare, especially for maternal health.

Soil engineering by ants facilitates plant compensation for large herbivore removal of aboveground biomass

The interplay between top-down and bottom-up processes determines ecosystem productivity. Yet, the factors that mediate the balance between these opposing forces remain poorly understood. Furthering this challenge, complex and often cryptic factors like ecosystem engineering and trait-mediated interactions may play major roles in mediating the outcomes of top-down and bottom-up interactions. In semiarid grasslands of northeastern China, we conducted a large-scale, three-year experiment to evaluate how soil engineering by ants and plasticity in plants independently and jointly influenced the top-down effects of grazing by a ubiquitous herbivore (cattle) on aboveground standing biomass of the dominant perennial grass, Leymus chinensis. Herbivory had strong top-down effects, reducing L. chinensis AB by 25% relative to baseline levels without cattle or ants. In contrast, soil engineering by ants facilitated weak bottom-up effects in the absence of herbivory. However, in the presence of herbivory, soil engineering effects were strong enough to fully offset herbivore removal of aboveground biomass. This outcome was mediated by L. chinensis's plasticity in reallocating growth from below- to aboveground biomass, a result linked to additive effects of engineers and herbivores increasing soil N availability and engineering effects improving soil structure. Soil engineering increased soil N by 12%, promoting aboveground biomass. Herbivores increased soil N by 13% via defecation, but this increase failed to offset their reductions in aboveground biomass in isolation. However, when combined, engineers and herbivores increased soil N by 26% and engineers improved soil bulk density, facilitating L. chinensis to shift resource allocations from below- to aboveground biomass sufficiently to fully offset herbivore suppression of aboveground biomass. Our results demonstrate that soil engineering and trait-mediated effects of plant plasticity can strongly mediate the outcome of top-down and bottom-up interactions. These cryptic but perhaps ubiquitous processes may help to explain the long-debated phenomenon of plant compensatory responses to large grazers.

Mediation of the association between maternal pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and childhood overweight/obesity by birth anthropometry

The mechanism through which developmental programming of offspring overweight/obesity following in utero exposure to maternal overweight/obesity operates is unknown but may operate through biologic pathways involving offspring anthropometry at birth. Thus, we sought to examine to what extent the association between in utero exposure to maternal overweight/obesity and childhood overweight/obesity is mediated by birth anthropometry. Analyses were conducted on a retrospective cohort with data obtained from one hospital system. A natural effects model framework was used to estimate the natural direct effect and natural indirect effect of birth anthropometry (weight, length, head circumference, ponderal index, and small-for-gestational age [SGA] or large-for-gestational age [LGA]) for the association between pre-pregnancy maternal body mass index (BMI) category (overweight/obese vs normal weight) and offspring overweight/obesity in childhood. Models were adjusted for maternal and child socio-demographics. Three thousand nine hundred and fifty mother-child dyads were included in analyses (1467 [57.8%] of mothers and 913 [34.4%] of children were overweight/obese). Results suggest that a small percentage of the effect of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI overweight/obesity on offspring overweight/obesity operated through offspring anthropometry at birth (weight: 15.5%, length: 5.2%, head circumference: 8.5%, ponderal index: 2.2%, SGA: 2.9%, and LGA: 4.2%). There was a small increase in the percentage mediated when gestational diabetes or hypertensive disorders were added to the models. Our study suggests that some measures of birth anthropometry mediate the association between maternal pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and offspring overweight/obesity in childhood and that the size of this mediated effect is small.

Pathogen Dynamics across the Diversity of Aging

AbstractReproduction, mortality, and immune function often change with age but do not invariably deteriorate. Across the tree of life, there is extensive variation in age-specific performance and changes to key life-history traits. These changes occur on a spectrum from classic senescence, where performance declines with age, to juvenescence, where performance improves with age. Reproduction, mortality, and immune function are also important factors influencing the spread of infectious disease, yet there exists no comprehensive investigation into how the aging spectrum of these traits impacts epidemics. We used a model laboratory infection system to compile an aging profile of a single organism, including traits directly linked to pathogen susceptibility and those that should indirectly alter pathogen transmission by influencing demography. We then developed generalizable epidemiological models demonstrating that different patterns of aging produce dramatically different transmission landscapes: in many cases, aging can reduce the probability of epidemics, but it can also promote severity. This work provides context and tools for use across taxa by empiricists, demographers, and epidemiologists, advancing our ability to accurately predict factors contributing to epidemics or the potential repercussions of senescence manipulation.

Hidden layers of density dependence in consumer feeding rates

Functional responses relate a consumer's feeding rates to variation in its abiotic and biotic environment, providing insight into consumer behaviour and fitness, and underpinning population and food-web dynamics. Despite their broad relevance and long-standing history, we show here that the types of density dependence found in classic resource- and consumer-dependent functional-response models equate to strong and often untenable assumptions about the independence of processes underlying feeding rates. We first demonstrate mathematically how to quantify non-independence between feeding and consumer interference and between feeding on multiple resources. We then analyse two large collections of functional-response data sets to show that non-independence is pervasive and borne out in previously hidden forms of density dependence. Our results provide a new lens through which to view variation in consumer feeding rates and disentangle the biological underpinnings of species interactions in multi-species contexts.

The influence of nutrient enrichment on riverine food web function and stability

Nutrient enrichment of rivers and lakes has been increasing rapidly over the past few decades, primarily because of agricultural intensification. Although nutrient enrichment is known to drive excessive algal and microbial growth, which can directly and indirectly change the ecological community composition, the resulting changes in food web emergent properties are poorly understood. We used ecological network analysis (ENA) to examine the emergent properties of 12 riverine food webs across a nutrient enrichment gradient in the Manawatu, New Zealand. We also derive Keystone Sensitivity Indices to explore whether nutrients change the trophic importance of species in a way that alters the resilience of the communities to further nutrient enrichment or floods. Nutrient enrichment resulted in communities composed of energy inefficient species with high community (excluding microbes) respiration. Community respiration was several times greater in enriched communities, and this may drive hypoxic conditions even without concomitant changes in microbial respiration. Enriched communities exhibited weaker trophic cascades, which may yield greater robustness to energy flow loss. Interestingly, enriched communities were also more structurally and functionally affected by species sensitive to flow disturbance making these communities more vulnerable to floods.

Light availability influences the intensity of nectar robbery and its effects on reproduction in a tropical shrub via multiple pathways

PREMISE

The multiple exogenous pathways by which light availability affects plant reproduction (e.g., via influence on attraction of mutualists and antagonists) remain surprisingly understudied. The light environment experienced by a parent can also have transgenerational effects on offspring via these same pathways.

METHODS

We evaluated (a) the influence of light availability on floral traits in Odontonema cuspidatum, (b) the relative importance of the pathways by which light influences nectar robbery and reproductive output, and (c) the role of parental light environment in mediating these relationships. We conducted a reciprocal translocation experiment using clonally propagated ramets and field surveys of naturally occurring plants.

RESULTS

Light availability influenced multiple floral traits, including flower number and nectar volume, which in turn influenced nectar robbery. But nectar robbery was also directly influenced by light availability, due to light effects on nectar robber foraging behavior or neighborhood floral context. Parental light environment mediated the link between light availability and nectar robber attraction, suggesting local adaptation to low-light environments in floral visitor attraction. However, we found no transgenerational effect on reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that exogenous pathways by which light influences plants (particularly through effects on floral antagonists) can complicate the positive relationship between light availability and plant reproduction. Our results are among the first to document effects of light on floral antagonists and clonal transgenerational effects on flower visitor attraction traits.