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Valdés A, Arnold PA, Ehrlén J. Spring temperature drives phenotypic selection on plasticity of flowering time. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20230670. [PMID: 37670583 PMCID: PMC10510446 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.0670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023] Open
Abstract
In seasonal environments, a high responsiveness of development to increasing temperatures in spring can infer benefits in terms of a longer growing season, but also costs in terms of an increased risk of facing unfavourable weather conditions. Still, we know little about how climatic conditions influence the optimal plastic response. Using 22 years of field observations for the perennial forest herb Lathyrus vernus, we assessed phenotypic selection on among-individual variation in reaction norms of flowering time to spring temperature, and examined if among-year variation in selection on plasticity was associated with spring temperature conditions. We found significant among-individual variation in mean flowering time and flowering time plasticity, and that plants that flowered earlier also had a more plastic flowering time. Selection favoured individuals with an earlier mean flowering time and a lower thermal plasticity of flowering time. Less plastic individuals were more strongly favoured in colder springs, indicating that spring temperature influenced optimal flowering time plasticity. Our results show how selection on plasticity can be linked to climatic conditions, and illustrate how we can understand and predict evolutionary responses of organisms to changing environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alicia Valdés
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Pieter A. Arnold
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2600, Australia
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Kath J, Byrareddy VM, Reardon-Smith K, Mushtaq S. Early flowering changes robusta coffee yield responses to climate stress and management. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:158836. [PMID: 36122728 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 09/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
A shift towards earlier flowering is a widely noted consequence of climate change for the world's plants. However, whether early flowering changes the way in which plants respond to climate stress, and in turn plant yield, remains largely unexplored. Using 10 years of flowering time and yield observations (Total N = 5580) from 558 robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) farms across Vietnam we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the drivers of flowering day anomalies and the consequent effects of this on coffee climate stress sensitivity and management responses (i.e. irrigation and fertilization). SEM allowed us to model the cascading and interacting effects of differences in flowering time, growing season length and climate stress. Warm nights were the main driver of early flowering (i.e. flowering day anomalies <0), which in turn corresponded to longer growing seasons. Early flowering was linked to greater sensitivity of yield to temperature during flowering (i.e. early in the season). In contrast, when late flowering occurred yield was most sensitive to temperature and rainfall later in the growing season, after flowering and fruit development. The positive effects of tree age and fertilizer on yield, apparent under late flowering conditions, were absent when flowering occurred early. Late flowering models predicted yields under early flowering conditions poorly (a 50 % reduction in cross-validated R2 of 0.54 to 0.27). Likewise, models based on early flowering were unable to predict yields well under late flowering conditions (a 75 % reduction in cross-validated R2, from 0.58 to 0.14). Our results show that early flowering changes the sensitivity of coffee production to climate stress and management and in turn our ability to predict yield. Our results indicate that changes in plant phenology need to be taken into account in order to more accurately assess climate risk and management impacts on plant performance and crop yield.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jarrod Kath
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia; School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia; Future Drought Fund Hub (Research), University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kathryn Reardon-Smith
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia; School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Shahbaz Mushtaq
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
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Allen WJ, Bufford JL, Barnes AD, Barratt BIP, Deslippe JR, Dickie IA, Goldson SL, Howlett BG, Hulme PE, Lavorel S, O'Brien SA, Waller LP, Tylianakis JM. A network perspective for sustainable agroecosystems. TRENDS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 27:769-780. [PMID: 35501260 DOI: 10.1016/j.tplants.2022.04.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 03/26/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Nature-based management aims to improve sustainable agroecosystem production, but its efficacy has been variable. We argue that nature-based agroecosystem management could be significantly improved by explicitly considering and manipulating the underlying networks of species interactions. A network perspective can link species interactions to ecosystem functioning and stability, identify influential species and interactions, and suggest optimal management approaches. Recent advances in predicting the network roles of species from their functional traits could allow direct manipulation of network architecture through additions or removals of species with targeted traits. Combined with improved understanding of the structure and dynamics of networks across spatial and temporal scales and interaction types, including social-ecological, applying these tools to nature-based management can contribute to sustainable agroecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warwick J Allen
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand.
| | - Jennifer L Bufford
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, PO Box 85084, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand
| | - Andrew D Barnes
- Te Aka Mātuatua - School of Science, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3204, New Zealand
| | - Barbara I P Barratt
- AgResearch, Invermay Research Centre, Mosgiel 9053, New Zealand; Department of Botany, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand
| | - Julie R Deslippe
- Centre for Biodiversity and Restoration Ecology and School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand
| | - Ian A Dickie
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand
| | - Stephen L Goldson
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, PO Box 85084, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand; AgResearch, Private Bag 4749, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand
| | - Brad G Howlett
- The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Philip E Hulme
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, PO Box 85084, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand
| | - Sandra Lavorel
- Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand; Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes CNRS, Université Savoie Mont-Blanc, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Sophie A O'Brien
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand
| | - Lauren P Waller
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, PO Box 85084, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand
| | - Jason M Tylianakis
- Bio-Protection Research Centre/Bioprotection Aotearoa, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand
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