Including a diverse set of voices to address biological invasions

Inclusivity is fundamental to progress in understanding and addressing the global phenomena of biological invasions because inclusivity fosters a breadth of perspectives, knowledge, and solutions. Here, we report on how the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessment on invasive alien species (IAS) prioritized inclusivity, the benefits of this approach, and the remaining challenges.

Widespread imprecision in estimates of the economic costs of invasive alien species worldwide

Several hundred studies have attempted to estimate the monetary cost arising from the management and/or impacts of invasive alien species. However, the diversity of methods used to estimate the monetary costs of invasive alien species, the types of costs that have been reported, and the spatial scales at which they have been assessed raise important questions as to the precision of these reported monetary costs. Benford's Law has been increasingly used as a diagnostic tool to assess the accuracy and reliability of estimates reported in financial accounts but has rarely been applied to audit data on environmental costs. Therefore, the distributions of first, second- and leading double-digits of the monetary costs arising from biological invasions, as reported in the InvaCost database, were compared with the null expectations under Benford's Law. There was strong evidence that the reported monetary costs of biological invasions departed considerably from Benford's Law and the departures were of a scale equal to that found in global macroeconomic data. The rounding upwards of costs appears to be widespread. Furthermore, numerical heaping, where values cluster around specific numbers was evident with only 901 unique cost values accounting for half of the 13,553 cost estimates within the InvaCost database. Irrespective of the currency, the value of 1,000,000 was the most common cost estimate. An investigation of anomalous data entries concluded that non-peer reviewed official government reports need to provide greater detail regarding how costs are estimated. Despite the undeniably high economic cost of biological invasions worldwide, individual records of costs were often found to be imprecise and possibly inflated and this emphasises the need for greater transparency and rigour when reporting the costs of biological invasions. Identifying whether the irregularities found for the costs of biological invasions are general for other types of environmental costs should be a research priority.

Citizen science is a vital partnership for invasive alien species management and research

Invasive alien species (IAS) adversely impact biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and socio-economics. Citizen science can be an effective tool for IAS surveillance, management, and research, providing large datasets over wide spatial extents and long time periods, with public participants generating knowledge that supports action. We demonstrate how citizen science has contributed knowledge across the biological invasion process, especially for early detection and distribution mapping. However, we recommend that citizen science could be used more for assessing impacts and evaluating the success of IAS management. Citizen science does have limitations, and we explore solutions to two key challenges: ensuring data accuracy and dealing with uneven spatial coverage of potential recorders (which limits the dataset's "fit for purpose"). Greater co-development of citizen science with public stakeholders will help us better realize its potential across the biological invasion process and across ecosystems globally while meeting the needs of participants, local communities, scientists, and decision-makers.

High-performing plastic clones best explain the spread of yellow monkeyflower from lowland to higher elevation areas in New Zealand

The relative contribution of adaptation and phenotypic plasticity can vary between core and edge populations, with implications for invasive success. We investigated the spread of the invasive yellow monkeyflower, Erythranthe gutatta in New Zealand, where it is spreading from lowland agricultural land into high-elevation conservation areas. We investigated the extent of phenotypic variation among clones from across the South Island, looked for adaptation and compared degrees of plasticity among lowland core versus montane range-edge populations. We grew 34 clones and measured their vegetative and floral traits in two common gardens, one in the core range at 9 m a.s.l. and one near the range-edge at 560 m a.s.l. Observed trait variation was explained by a combination of genotypic diversity (as identified through common gardens) and high phenotypic plasticity. We found a subtle signature of local adaptation to lowland habitats but all clones were plastic and able to survive and reproduce in both gardens. In the range-edge garden, above-ground biomass was on average almost double and stolon length almost half that of the same clone in the core garden. Clones from low-elevation sites showed higher plasticity on average than those from higher elevation sites. The highest performing clones in the core garden were also top performers in the range-edge garden. These results suggest some highly fit general-purpose genotypes, possibly pre-adapted to New Zealand montane conditions, best explains the spread of E. gutatta from lowland to higher elevation areas.

Emerging advances in biosecurity to underpin human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health

One Biosecurity is an interdisciplinary approach to policy and research that builds on the interconnections between human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health to effectively prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species. To support this approach requires that key cross-sectoral research innovations be identified and prioritized. Following an interdisciplinary horizon scan for emerging research that underpins One Biosecurity, four major interlinked advances were identified: implementation of new surveillance technologies adopting state-of-the-art sensors connected to the Internet of Things, deployable handheld molecular and genomic tracing tools, the incorporation of wellbeing and diverse human values into biosecurity decision-making, and sophisticated socio-environmental models and data capture. The relevance and applicability of these innovations to address threats from pathogens, pests, and weeds in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems emphasize the opportunity to build critical mass around interdisciplinary teams at a global scale that can rapidly advance science solutions targeting biosecurity threats.

Unveiling the hidden economic toll of biological invasions in the European Union

Background

Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated.

Results

We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)-the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions-to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states.

Conclusions

Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00750-3.

Comparing the Above and Below-Ground Chemical Defences of Three Rumex Species Between Their Native and Introduced Provenances

Compared to their native range, non-native plants often experience reduced levels of herbivory in the introduced range. This may result in reduced pressure to produce chemical defences that act against herbivores. We measured the most abundant secondary metabolites found in Rumex spp., namely oxalates, phenols and tannins. To test this hypothesis, we compared native (UK) and introduced (NZ) provenances of three different Rumex species (R. obtusifolius, R. crispus and R. conglomeratus, Polygonaceae) to assess whether any significant differences existed in their levels of chemical defences in either leaves and roots. All three species have previously been shown to support a lower diversity of insect herbivores and experience less herbivory in the introduced range. We further examined leaf herbivory on plants from both provenances when grown together in a common garden experiment in New Zealand to test whether any differences in damage might be consistent with variation in the quantity of chemical defences. We found that two Rumex species (R. obtusifolius and R. crispus) showed no evidence for a reduction in chemical defences, while a third (R. conglomeratus) showed only limited evidence. The common garden experiment revealed that the leaves analysed had low levels of herbivory (~ 0.5%) with no differences in damage between provenances for any of the three study species. Roots tended to have a higher concentration of tannins than shoots, but again showed no difference between the provenances. As such, the findings of this study provide no evidence for lower plant investments in chemical defences, suggesting that other factors explain the success of Rumex spp. in New Zealand.

Why Are Invasive Plants Successful?

Plant invasions, a byproduct of globalization, are increasing worldwide. Because of their ecological and economic impacts, considerable efforts have been made to understand and predict the success of non-native plants. Numerous frameworks, hypotheses, and theories have been advanced to conceptualize the interactions of multiple drivers and context dependence of invasion success with the aim of achieving robust explanations with predictive power. We review these efforts from a community-level perspective rather than a biogeographical one, focusing on terrestrial systems, and explore the roles of intrinsic plant properties in determining species invasiveness, as well as the effects of biotic and abiotic conditions in mediating ecosystem invasibility (or resistance) and ecological and evolutionary processes. We also consider the fundamental influences of human-induced changes at scales ranging from local to global in triggering, promoting, and sustaining plant invasions and discuss how these changes could alter future invasion trajectories.

Global assessment of three Rumex species reveals inconsistent climatic niche shifts across multiple introduced ranges

Climatic niche shifts occur when species occupy different climates in the introduced range than in their native range. Climatic niche shifts are known to occur across a range of taxa, however we do not currently understand whether climatic niche shifts can consistently be predicted across multiple introduced ranges. Using three congeneric weed species, we investigate whether climatic niche shifts in one introduced range are consistent in other ranges where the species has been introduced. We compared the climatic conditions occupied by Rumex conglomeratus, R. crispus, and R. obtusifolius between their native range (Eurasia) and three different introduced ranges (North America, Australia, New Zealand). We considered metrics of niche overlap, expansion, unfilling, pioneering, and similarity to determine whether climatic niche shifts were consistent across ranges and congeners. We found that the presence and direction of climatic niche shifts was inconsistent between introduced ranges for each species. Within an introduced range, however, niche shifts were qualitatively similar among species. North America and New Zealand experienced diverging niche expansion into drier and wetter climates respectively, whilst the niche was conserved in Australia. This work highlights how unique characteristics of an introduced range and local introduction history can drive different niche shifts, and that comparisons between only the native and one introduced range may misrepresent a species’ capacity for niche shifts. However, predictions of climatic niche shifts could be improved by comparing related species in the introduced range rather than relying on the occupied environments of the native range.

A network perspective for sustainable agroecosystems

Nature-based management aims to improve sustainable agroecosystem production, but its efficacy has been variable. We argue that nature-based agroecosystem management could be significantly improved by explicitly considering and manipulating the underlying networks of species interactions. A network perspective can link species interactions to ecosystem functioning and stability, identify influential species and interactions, and suggest optimal management approaches. Recent advances in predicting the network roles of species from their functional traits could allow direct manipulation of network architecture through additions or removals of species with targeted traits. Combined with improved understanding of the structure and dynamics of networks across spatial and temporal scales and interaction types, including social-ecological, applying these tools to nature-based management can contribute to sustainable agroecosystems.

Can the enemy release hypothesis explain the success of Rumex (Polygonaceae) species in an introduced range?

The enemy release hypothesis states that introduced plants have a competitive advantage due to their release from co-evolved natural enemies (i.e., herbivores and pathogens), which allows them to spread rapidly in new environments. This hypothesis has received mixed support to date, but previous studies have rarely examined the herbivore community, plant damage, and performance simultaneously and largely ignored below-ground herbivores. We tested for enemy release by conducting large scale field surveys of insect diversity and abundance in both the native (United Kingdom) and introduced (New Zealand) ranges of three dock (Rumex, Polygonaceae) species: R. conglomeratus Murray (clustered dock), R. crispus L. (curly dock) and R. obtusifolius L. (broad-leaved dock). We captured both above- and below-ground insect herbivores, measured herbivore damage, and plant biomass as an indicator for performance. In the introduced range, Rumex plants had a lower diversity of insect herbivores, all insect specialists present in the native range were absent and plants had lower levels of herbivore damage on both roots and leaves. Despite this, only R. crispus had greater fresh weight in the introduced range compared to the native range. This suggests that enemy release, particularly from below-ground herbivores, could be a driver for the success of R. crispus plants in New Zealand, but not for R. conglomeratus and R. obtusifolius.

Global drivers of herbicide-resistant weed richness in major cereal crops worldwide

BACKGROUND

The number of herbicide-resistant weeds differs across the globe but the reasons for this variation are poorly understood. Taking a macroecological approach, the role of six drivers of herbicide resistance in a country was examined for barley, maize, rice and wheat crops worldwide. Drivers captured agronomic measures (crop harvested area, herbicide and fertilizer input) as well as sources of sampling bias that result in under-reporting of herbicide resistance (human population density, research intensity and time since the first record of resistance).

RESULTS

Depending on the crop, best subset regression models explained between 60% and 80% of the variation in herbicide-resistant weeds recorded in countries worldwide. Global prevalence of herbicide-resistant weeds is likely underestimated, especially in countries with limited capability in herbicide research. Numbers of resistant weeds worldwide will continue to increase. Agricultural intensification, captured by fertilizer and herbicide input, as well as further expansion of crop harvested area are primary drivers of future herbicide-resistant weeds.

CONCLUSION

Because the evolution of herbicide resistance lags behind the selection pressures imposed by fertilizer and herbicide inputs, several countries (e.g. Brazil, South Africa, Uruguay) appear to exhibit a 'herbicide resistance debt' in which current agronomic conditions have set the scene for higher numbers of herbicide-resistant weeds than currently observed. Future agricultural expansion will lead to more herbicide-resistant weeds, especially in developing countries as their economies grow and where herbicide resistance is currently under-reported. A global strategy for increasing national capability in herbicide resistance research is needed. © 2022 The Author. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Importance of greater interdisciplinarity and geographic scope when tackling the driving forces behind biological invasions

Invasive non-native species are important drivers of ecosystem change, yet the driving forces of biological invasions themselves are poorly understood. Such information is essential to ensure policies focus on the most relevant drivers, and that future scenarios capture the full range of potential outcomes for invasive non-native species. I carried out a bibliometric analysis of articles published from 2000 to 2020 that address either invasive non-native species or biodiversity and ecosystem services and that also mention 1 or more drivers of ecosystem change. I examined 5 indirect drivers (demographic, economic, governance, sociocultural, and technological) and 6 direct drivers (climate change, invasive non-native species, land-use or sea-use change, natural hazards, pollution, and resource extraction). Using the Web of Science core collection of citation indexes, I undertook searches of article titles and keywords and retrieved 27,462 articles addressing invasive non-native species and 110,087 articles dealing with biodiversity or ecosystem services. Most research to date on biological invasions as well as on biodiversity and ecosystem services has focused on anthropogenic direct drivers of ecosystem change rather than indirect drivers. Yet currently, less than 18% of articles addressing biological invasions examined drivers of ecosystem change, a similar level to that found over 20 years ago for biodiversity or ecosystem services. Knowledge of the drivers of biological invasions is limited, emphasizes tractable drivers over those that require an interdisciplinary approach, and is biased toward developed economies. Drivers generally deemed important for biological invasions, such as governance and resource extraction, accounted for less than 2% of research effort. The absence of a systematic understanding of the forces that drive invasive non-native species and how they interact means that attempts to mitigate or forecast biological invasions are likely to fail. To address biological invasions requires a much better orientation of national and international research on drivers in relation to both their actual importance as well as their policy relevance.

Hierarchical cluster analysis of herbicide modes of action reveals distinct classes of multiple resistance in weeds

BACKGROUND

The number of weed species resistant to multiple herbicide modes of action (MoAs) has increased over the last 30 years and may in the future render existing herbicide MoAs obsolete for many cropping systems. Yet few predictive tools exist to manage this risk. Using a worldwide dataset of weed species resistant to multiple herbicide MoAs, hierarchical clustering was used to classify MoAs into similar groups in relation to the suite of resistant weed species they have in common. Network analyses then were used to explore the relative importance of species prevalence and similarity in cluster patterns.

RESULTS

Hierarchical clustering identified three similarly sized clusters of herbicide MoAs that were linked by the co-occurrence of resistant weeds: Herbicide Resistance Action Committee (HRAC) groups 2, 4, 5 and 9; HRAC groups 12, 14 and 15; and HRAC groups 1, 3 and 22. Cluster membership was consistent with similarities in the physiological or biochemical target of the herbicide MoAs. Network analyses revealed that the number of weed species resistant to two different MoAs was related to the number of weeds known to be resistant to each individual herbicide MoA.

CONCLUSIONS

Hierarchical cluster analysis provided new insights into the risk of weeds becoming resistant to more than one herbicide MoA. By clustering herbicide MoAs into three distinct groups, the potential exists for farmers to manage resistance by rotating herbicides between rather than within clusters, as far as crop, weed and environmental conditions allow.

Declining readability of research on biological invasions over two decades

To prevent and effectively manage the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of invasive non-native species it is essential that the underpinning scientific knowledge is widely disseminated and understood by scientists, the public, and other stakeholders. A key need for the public understanding of science is that technical information is easy to read and interpret. Unfortunately, this is not the case for research addressing biological invasions. Detailed analysis of the readability of research abstracts published over two decades in the leading international journal Biological Invasions revealed that texts were very difficult to read and had become less readable over time. Abstracts were pitched at readers with graduate-level literacy, much higher than the average reading-level of the general public. Authors from countries where English was an official language generated the most complex text. However, the abstracts from authors based in countries where English was not an official language have shown a marked increase in complexity since 2001. This reflected a trend for increasing numbers of words per sentence and more syllables per word and was not related to the increase in numbers of authors of an article. Complex abstracts attracted more citations suggesting scientific peers may be more persuaded by a technically challenging abstract pitched towards a readership with high literacy. Urgent action is required to remedy this problem. Ensuring authors and editors review the readability of the work they publish is a first step but more formal mechanisms such as using structured abstracts and the provision of additional succinct plain-language summaries will more effectively address this problem in the future.

Species prevalence and plant traits discriminate between herbicide resistant and susceptible weeds

BACKGROUND

Herbicide resistant weeds pose one of the most significant global challenges to sustainable food and fiber production. Plant traits are assumed to play a significant role in determining whether a weed is likely to evolve herbicide resistance but there have been few quantitative assessments to date. There is therefore an urgent need to investigate both the demographic and evolutionary characteristics of weeds to predict which weed species are likely to evolve herbicide resistance. Here, the discriminatory power of multiple plant traits was examined by comparing herbicide resistant and herbicide susceptible weeds in the United States.

RESULTS

Despite the taxonomic and agronomic similarity of herbicide resistant and susceptible weeds in the United States, differences between these groups were captured by a relatively small set of explanatory variables. Herbicide resistant weeds were found across more states than susceptible species and this suggests widespread weeds also happen to be more problematic in crops and therefore specifically targeted for weed control. In terms of traits, herbicide resistant species were more likely to be outcrossing, have unisexual flowers and be wind pollinated as well as have larger chromosome numbers and seed size than herbicide susceptible weeds.

CONCLUSIONS

A trait-based approach to understanding herbicide resistance confirms many assumptions as to the genetic attributes that make a weed more likely to evolve herbicide resistance. Scope therefore exists to build better risk assessment tools to identify future herbicide resistance hazards by incorporating plant traits, environmental tolerances, and evidence of herbicide resistance elsewhere in the world. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Weed seed contamination in imported seed lots entering New Zealand

Imports of seeds for sowing are a major pathway for the introduction of contaminant seeds, and many agricultural weeds globally naturalised originally have entered through this pathway. Effective management of this pathway is a significant means of reducing future plant introductions and helps minimise agricultural losses. Using a national border inspection database, we examined the frequency, origin and identity of contaminant seeds within seed for sowing shipments entering New Zealand between 2014–2018. Our analysis looked at 41,610 seed lots across 1,420 crop seed species from over 90 countries. Overall, contamination was rare, occurring in 1.9% of all seed lots. Among the different crop types, the arable category had the lowest percentage of seed lots contaminated (0.5%) and the forage category had the highest (12.6%). Crop seeds Capsicum, Phaseolus and Solanum had the lowest contamination rates (0.0%). Forage crops Medicago (27.3%) and Trifolium (19.8%) had the highest contamination rates. Out of 191 genera recorded as contaminants, Chenopodium was the most common. Regulated quarantine weeds were the rarest contaminant type, only occurring in 0.06% of seed lots. Sorghum halepense was the most common quarantine species and was only found in vegetable seed lots. Vegetable crop seed lots accounted for approximately half of all quarantine species detections, Raphanus sativus being the most contaminated vegetable crop. Larger seed lots were significantly more contaminated and more likely to contain a quarantine species than smaller seed lots. These findings support International Seed Testing Association rules on maximum seed lot weights. Low contamination rates suggest industry practices are effective in minimising contaminant seeds. Considering New Zealand inspects every imported seed lot, utilises a working sample size 5 times larger than International Seed Testing Association rules require, trades crop seed with approximately half of the world’s countries and imports thousands of crop seed species, our study provides a unique overview of contaminant seeds that move throughout the seed for sowing system.

Viewing Emerging Human Infectious Epidemics through the Lens of Invasion Biology

Invasion biology examines species originated elsewhere and moved with the help of humans, and those species’ impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. In a globalized world, the emergence and spread of many human infectious pathogens are quintessential biological invasion events. Some macroscopic invasive species themselves contribute to the emergence and transmission of human infectious agents. We review conceptual parallels and differences between human epidemics and biological invasions by animals and plants. Fundamental concepts in invasion biology regarding the interplay of propagule pressure, species traits, biotic interactions, eco-evolutionary experience, and ecosystem disturbances can help to explain transitions between stages of epidemic spread. As a result, many forecasting and management tools used to address epidemics could be applied to biological invasions and vice versa. Therefore, we advocate for increasing cross-fertilization between the two disciplines to improve prediction, prevention, treatment, and mitigation of invasive species and infectious disease outbreaks, including pandemics.

MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA): disentangling large-scale context dependence in biological invasions

Macroecology is the study of patterns, and the processes that determine those patterns, in the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales, whether they be spatial (from hundreds of kilometres to global), temporal (from decades to centuries), and organismal (numbers of species or higher taxa). In the context of invasion ecology, macroecological studies include, for example, analyses of the richness, diversity, distribution, and abundance of alien species in regional floras and faunas, spatio-temporal dynamics of alien species across regions, and cross-taxonomic analyses of species traits among comparable native and alien species pools. However, macroecological studies aiming to explain and predict plant and animal naturalisations and invasions, and the resulting impacts, have, to date, rarely considered the joint effects of species traits, environment, and socioeconomic characteristics. To address this, we present the MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA). The MAFIA explains the invasion phenomenon using three interacting classes of factors – alien species traits, location characteristics, and factors related to introduction events – and explicitly maps these interactions onto the invasion sequence from transport to naturalisation to invasion. The framework therefore helps both to identify how anthropogenic effects interact with species traits and environmental characteristics to determine observed patterns in alien distribution, abundance, and richness; and to clarify why neglecting anthropogenic effects can generate spurious conclusions. Event-related factors include propagule pressure, colonisation pressure, and residence time that are important for mediating the outcome of invasion processes. However, because of context dependence, they can bias analyses, for example those that seek to elucidate the role of alien species traits. In the same vein, failure to recognise and explicitly incorporate interactions among the main factors impedes our understanding of which macroecological invasion patterns are shaped by the environment, and of the importance of interactions between the species and their environment. The MAFIA is based largely on insights from studies of plants and birds, but we believe it can be applied to all taxa, and hope that it will stimulate comparative research on other groups and environments. By making the biases in macroecological analyses of biological invasions explicit, the MAFIA offers an opportunity to guide assessments of the context dependence of invasions at broad geographical scales.

The Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI): an interdisciplinary foundation for the assessment of biosecurity threats

Emerging microparasite (e.g. viruses, bacteria, protozoa and fungi) epidemics and the introduction of non-native pests and weeds are major biosecurity threats worldwide. The likelihood of these threats is often estimated from probabilities of their entry, establishment, spread and ease of prevention. If ecosystems are considered equivalent to hosts, then compartment disease models should provide a useful framework for understanding the processes that underpin non-native species invasions. To enable greater cross-fertilisation between these two disciplines, the Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI) is developed that classifies ecosystems in relation to their invasion status: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Resistant. These states are linked by transitions relating to transmission, latency and recovery. This viewpoint differs markedly from the species-centric approaches often applied to non-native species. It allows generalisations from epidemiology, such as the force of infection, the basic reproductive ratio R0, super-spreaders, herd immunity, cordon sanitaire and ring vaccination, to be discussed in the novel context of non-native species and helps identify important gaps in the study of biological invasions. The EFBI approach highlights several limitations inherent in current approaches to the study of biological invasions including: (i) the variance in non-native abundance across ecosystems is rarely reported; (ii) field data rarely (if ever) distinguish source from sink ecosystems; (iii) estimates of the susceptibility of ecosystems to invasion seldom account for differences in exposure to non-native species; and (iv) assessments of ecosystem susceptibility often confuse the processes that underpin patterns of spread within -and between- ecosystems. Using the invasion of lakes as a model, the EFBI approach is shown to present a new biosecurity perspective that takes account of ecosystem status and complements demographic models to deliver clearer insights into the dynamics of biological invasions at the landscape scale. It will help to identify whether management of the susceptibility of ecosystems, of the number of vectors, or of the diversity of pathways (for movement between ecosystems) is the best way of limiting or reversing the population growth of a non-native species. The framework can be adapted to incorporate increasing levels of complexity and realism and to provide insights into how to monitor, map and manage biological invasions more effectively.

Classifying the introduction pathways of alien species: are we moving in the right direction?

Alien species are introduced to new regions in many different ways and for different purposes. A number of frameworks have been developed to group such pathways of introduction into discrete categories in order to improve our understanding of biological invasions, provide information for interventions that aim to prevent introductions, enable reporting to national and international organisations and facilitate the prediction of threats. The introduction pathway classification framework proposed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) as a global standard is comprised of six main categories and 44 sub-categories. However, issues have arisen with its implementation. In this position paper, we outline five desirable properties of an introduction pathway classification framework – it should be compatible (i.e. the level of detail of the categories is similar to that of the available data), actionable (i.e. categories link to specific interventions), general (i.e. categories are applicable across the contexts that are of interest (e.g. taxa, habitats and regions)), equivalent (i.e. categories are equivalent in their level of detail) and distinct (i.e. categories are discrete and easily distinguished) – termed the CAGED properties. The six main categories of the CBD framework have all of the CAGED properties, but the detailed sub-categories have few. Therefore, while the framework has been proposed by the CBD as a global standard and efforts have been made to put it into practice, we argue that there is room for improvement. We conclude by presenting scenarios for how the issues identified could be addressed, noting that a hybrid model might be most appropriate.

Global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees to prevent tree invasions and mitigate their negative impacts

Sustainably managed non-native trees deliver economic and societal benefits with limited risk of spread to adjoining areas. However, some plantations have launched invasions that cause substantial damage to biodiversity and ecosystem services, while others pose substantial threats of causing such impacts. The challenge is to maximise the benefits of non-native trees, while minimising negative impacts and preserving future benefits and options.

A workshop was held in 2019 to develop global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees, using the Council of Europe – Bern Convention Code of Conduct on Invasive Alien Trees as a starting point.

The global guidelines consist of eight recommendations: 1) Use native trees, or non-invasive non-native trees, in preference to invasive non-native trees; 2) Be aware of and comply with international, national, and regional regulations concerning non-native trees; 3) Be aware of the risk of invasion and consider global change trends; 4) Design and adopt tailored practices for plantation site selection and silvicultural management; 5) Promote and implement early detection and rapid response programmes; 6) Design and adopt tailored practices for invasive non-native tree control, habitat restoration, and for dealing with highly modified ecosystems; 7) Engage with stakeholders on the risks posed by invasive non-native trees, the impacts caused, and the options for management; and 8) Develop and support global networks, collaborative research, and information sharing on native and non-native trees.

The global guidelines are a first step towards building global consensus on the precautions that should be taken when introducing and planting non-native trees. They are voluntary and are intended to complement statutory requirements under international and national legislation. The application of the global guidelines and the achievement of their goals will help to conserve forest biodiversity, ensure sustainable forestry, and contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations linked with forest biodiversity.

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Scientists' warning on invasive alien species

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long‐term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long‐term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.

A conceptual map of invasion biology: Integrating hypotheses into a consensus network

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Since its emergence in the mid-20th century, invasion biology has matured into a productive research field addressing questions of fundamental and applied importance. Not only has the number of empirical studies increased through time, but also has the number of competing, overlapping and, in some cases, contradictory hypotheses about biological invasions. To make these contradictions and redundancies explicit, and to gain insight into the field's current theoretical structure, we developed and applied a Delphi approach to create a consensus network of 39 existing invasion hypotheses.

RESULTS

The resulting network was analysed with a link-clustering algorithm that revealed five concept clusters (resource availability, biotic interaction, propagule, trait and Darwin's clusters) representing complementary areas in the theory of invasion biology. The network also displays hypotheses that link two or more clusters, called connecting hypotheses, which are important in determining network structure. The network indicates hypotheses that are logically linked either positively (77 connections of support) or negatively (that is, they contradict each other; 6 connections).

SIGNIFICANCE

The network visually synthesizes how invasion biology's predominant hypotheses are conceptually related to each other, and thus, reveals an emergent structure - a conceptual map - that can serve as a navigation tool for scholars, practitioners and students, both inside and outside of the field of invasion biology, and guide the development of a more coherent foundation of theory. Additionally, the outlined approach can be more widely applied to create a conceptual map for the larger fields of ecology and biogeography.

Correction to: Plant invasions in New Zealand: global lessons in prevention, eradication and control

The article Plant invasions in New Zealand: global lessons in prevention, eradication and control, written by Philip E. Hulme, was originally published electronically on the publisher’s Internet portal on 25 February 2020 without open access. With the author(s)’ decision to opt for Open Choice, the copyright of the article changed on 23 March 2020 to © The Author(s) 2020 and the article is forthwith distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made.

Plant invasions in New Zealand: global lessons in prevention, eradication and control

The number of non-native plant species established outside of cultivation in the New Zealand archipelago is higher than for any other islands worldwide. Faced with this scale of plant invasions, there has been considerable investment in the scientific and operational aspects of prevention, eradication and control. As a result, New Zealand is ideally placed to illustrate the many challenges that plant invasions present worldwide as well as the possible solutions. New Zealand has been at the forefront of biosecurity policy developments to tackle plant invasions being one of the first countries to: (a) implement national legislation to address the management of non-native plants; (b) establish a national permitted list (white-list) for plant imports; and (c) introduce bans on the sale, distribution, or propagation of non-native plant species. However, these preventative measure are only effective where there are also adequate border inspection regimes, compliance monitoring of the horticulture industry, and surveillance of internet trade. While New Zealand has successfully eradicated several non-native plant species from its territory, the small number of successes reflects the short-term, local and often uncoordinated efforts to manage non-native plants rather than national programmes backed by legislation and financed over several decades. New Zealand supports a world-leading biological control programme, but this has led to sustained, large-scale control for only a handful of species. In natural areas, most management attempts using mechanical or herbicide treatments have failed to achieve control and there has been a progressive reduction in the area, and frequency of these programmes over time. This is illustrative of the challenges facing those responsible for managing non-native plants in any region of the world. A general insight is that a shift in mindset is required that overcomes significant cognitive biases that include succumbing to the pressure to always intervene, underestimating the non-linear trajectories of invasions, failing to articulate the values at stake, and underestimating the time programmes require to succeed. Important lessons of global relevance include the need for managers to: (a) recognise when and where sleeper weeds are likely to become a national issue, especially as a result of climate change; (b) quantify impacts on those values that stakeholders most cherish rather than those that are easy to measure; (c) provide accurate estimates of the potential future extent of the invasion in the absence of management; and (d) identify clear indicators of successful progress over the course of a long-term management programme.

Seed release by a serotinous pine in the absence of fire: implications for invasion into temperate regions

In pines, the release of seeds from serotinous cones is primarily considered a response to the high temperatures of a fire. However, the naturalization of serotinous pines in regions where fires are rare highlights the need to quantify environmental conditions that determine seed release to allow accurate prediction of dispersal and spread risk. We investigated the conditions that break cone serotiny in Pinus radiata, a widely planted forestry species that has naturalized in temperate regions worldwide. We quantified the cone temperatures at which cones open in this species, while also assessing potential confounding effects of cone moisture and age on these temperature requirements. We compared our laboratory results with cone opening behaviour under typical field conditions during summer in Canterbury, New Zealand. Cones opened at a mean temperature of 45 °C, much higher than maximum ambient air temperatures recorded in New Zealand. We found no influence of cone age or moisture content on opening temperature. Under field conditions, cones opened upon reaching similar temperatures to those determined in the laboratory; however, passive solar heating caused cones to reach temperatures up to 15 °C higher than ambient conditions. This resulted in 50 % of cones opening in field conditions where maximum air temperatures never exceeded 30 °C. Our results highlight the need for complementary laboratory and field experiments for understanding seed release from serotinous cones. Our findings have important implications for weed risk assessments, showing that serotinous pines can release seed in temperate climates without fire.

A Conceptual Framework for Range-Expanding Species that Track Human-Induced Environmental Change

For many species, human-induced environmental changes are important indirect drivers of range expansion into new regions. We argue that it is important to distinguish the range dynamics of such species from those that occur without, or with less clear, involvement of human-induced environmental changes. We elucidate the salient features of the rapid increase in the number of species whose range dynamics are human induced, and review the relationships and differences to both natural range expansion and biological invasions. We discuss the consequences for science, policy and management in an era of rapid global change and highlight four key challenges relating to basic gaps in knowledge, and the transfer of scientific understanding to biodiversity management and policy. We conclude that range-expanding species responding to human-induced environmental change will become an essential feature for biodiversity management and science in the Anthropocene. Finally, we propose the term neonative for these taxa.

Developing a list of invasive alien species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the European Union

The European Union (EU) has recently published its first list of invasive alien species (IAS) of EU concern to which current legislation must apply. The list comprises species known to pose great threats to biodiversity and needs to be maintained and updated. Horizon scanning is seen as critical to identify the most threatening potential IAS that do not yet occur in Europe to be subsequently risk assessed for future listing. Accordingly, we present a systematic consensus horizon scanning procedure to derive a ranked list of potential IAS likely to arrive, establish, spread and have an impact on biodiversity in the region over the next decade. The approach is unique in the continental scale examined, the breadth of taxonomic groups and environments considered, and the methods and data sources used. International experts were brought together to address five broad thematic groups of potential IAS. For each thematic group the experts first independently assembled lists of potential IAS not yet established in the EU but potentially threatening biodiversity if introduced. Experts were asked to score the species within their thematic group for their separate likelihoods of i) arrival, ii) establishment, iii) spread, and iv) magnitude of the potential negative impact on biodiversity within the EU. Experts then convened for a 2-day workshop applying consensus methods to compile a ranked list of potential IAS. From an initial working list of 329 species, a list of 66 species not yet established in the EU that were considered to be very high (8 species), high (40 species) or medium (18 species) risk species was derived. Here, we present these species highlighting the potential negative impacts and the most likely biogeographic regions to be affected by these potential IAS.

Import volumes and biosecurity interventions shape the arrival rate of fungal pathogens

Global trade and the movement of people accelerate biological invasions by spreading species worldwide. Biosecurity measures seek to allow trade and passenger movements while preventing incursions that could lead to the establishment of unwanted pests, pathogens, and weeds. However, few data exist to evaluate whether changes in trade volumes, passenger arrivals, and biosecurity measures have altered rates of establishment of nonnative species over time. This is particularly true for pathogens, which pose significant risks to animal and plant health and are consequently a major focus of biosecurity efforts but are difficult to detect. Here, we use a database of all known plant pathogen associations recorded in New Zealand to estimate the rate at which new fungal pathogens arrived and established on 131 economically important plant species over the last 133 years. We show that the annual arrival rate of new fungal pathogens increased from 1880 to about 1980 in parallel with increasing import trade volume but subsequently stabilised despite continued rapid growth in import trade and recent rapid increases in international passenger arrivals. Nevertheless, while pathogen arrival rates for crop and pasture species have declined in recent decades, arrival rates have increased for forestry and fruit tree species. These contrasting trends between production sectors reflect differences in biosecurity effort and suggest that targeted biosecurity can slow pathogen arrival and establishment despite increasing trade and international movement of people.

When people and goods move around the world, they spread nonnative species—including pathogens that can cause disease—leading to huge economic impacts. Many countries try to limit pathogen arrivals by screening goods and people before they enter. But are these biosecurity measures effective? Pathogens are hard to detect, and we rarely have data on key metrics such as the volume of goods imported, number of people arriving, and new nonnative pathogens establishing over time. Our study uses a database of all known New Zealand plant pathogen records to estimate how many fungal pathogens arrived and established on 131 economically important plant species each year over the last 133 years. Pathogen arrivals increased exponentially for 100 years starting in 1880, paralleling an increasing volume of goods imported. Since about 1980, the rate of new pathogen arrivals has stopped increasing, despite imports and the arrival of people continuing to accelerate. However, these recent trends differ among plants from different economic sectors. Pathogen arrivals on crop and forage plants have declined but continue to increase on forestry and fruit trees. This trend reflects differences in the biosecurity measures imposed, suggesting that targeted biosecurity can reduce the establishment of nonnative pathogens even while global trade and travel continue to increase.