Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline

BACKGROUND

Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858.

RESULTS

Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.

Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates

INTRODUCTION

In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020.

RESULTS

In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.

The projected increase of vertebral osteomyelitis in Germany implies a demanding challenge for future healthcare management of aging populations

PURPOSE

Since an increase in the occurrence of native vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) is expected and reliable projections are missing, it is urgent to provide a reliable forecast model and make it a part of future health care considerations.

METHODS

Comprehensive nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany were used to forecast total numbers and incidence rates (IR) of VO as a function of age and gender until 2040. Projections were done using autoregressive integrated moving average model on historical data from 2005 to 2019 in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2040.

RESULTS

The IR of VO is expected to increase from 12.4 in 2019 to 21.5 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% CI 20.9-22.1] in 2040. The highest increase is predicted in patients over 75 years of age for both men and women leading to a steep increase in absolute numbers, which is fourfold higher compared to patients younger than 75 years. While the IR per age group will not increase any further after 2035, the subsequent increase is due to a higher number of individuals aged 75 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that increasing IR of VO will seriously challenge healthcare systems, particularly due to demographic change and increasing proportions of populations turning 75 years and older. With respect to globally fast aging populations, future health care policies need to address this burden by anticipating limitations in financial and human resources and developing high-level evidence-based guidelines for prevention and interdisciplinary treatment.

Trend and projection of non-communicable diseases risk factors in Iran from 2001 to 2030

This study aims to investigate the trends and project the major risk factors of Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Iran. We obtained the trend of prevalence of main risk factors related to NCDs in 30 to 70-year-old-individuals. The data were extracted from WHO STEP wise approach to NCDs risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Also,the previous studies conducted at national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2016 were employed. The prevalence of risk factors was projected by 2030 using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spatio-temporal model stratified by sex and province. The percent change for the age-standardized prevalence of smoking in men between 2001 and 2016 was calculated to be - 27.0. Also, the corresponding values for the risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and overweight, physical inactivity (PI), and mean of salt intake were - 26.1, 29.0, 70.0, 96.8, 116.6, and 7.5, respectively. It is predicted that smoking and these risk factors will undergo a change to show values of - 1.26, 38.7, 43.7, 2.36, and 15.3 by 2030, respectively. The corresponding values in women for the time interval of 2001-2016 were - 27.3, 26.3, 82.8, 1.88, 75.2, and 4.2, respectively. Plus, projections indicate that the 2030 variation values are expected to be - 25.0, 16.7, 37.5, 28.7, 26.7, and 10.9 respectively. This study showed that the prevalence of four risk factors of PI, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in Iran. Therefor, it is necessary to carry out effective interventions to adopt a healthy lifestyle and reduce the risk factors.

Epidemiology of limb trauma interventions in France: Current state and future projections

CONTEXT

The distributions and projections of trauma, treated according to the anatomical region, have not been studied in France. The objectives of this study were to obtain French epidemiological data specific to trauma procedures in orthopedic surgery, as well as to establish a statistical trend on the evolution of medical and surgical procedures resulting from this, since 2013 and over the years to come. Our hypothesis was that an increasing trend in trauma procedures since 2013 exists, with an epidemiological forecast of a continuing increase over 50 years, mainly in the context of the management of osteoporotic fractures related to the ageing French population.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study using national data to obtain completion of procedures between the start of 2013 and the end of 2021.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2021, we noted a total of 5,216,567 procedures related to orthopedic traumatology for an average of 579,618 procedures per year. We noted an overall increase in all procedures, continuing from 2013 to 2019, with an average annual increase of 1.125%. The most commonly performed procedure was osteosynthesis, with an average of 276,989 procedures per year. This was followed by wound sutures with an average of 185,023 procedures, orthopedic reductions of fractures and/or dislocations at an average of 62,960, then arthroplasties with 25,425 procedures per year, musculotendinous ruptures were 19,755 procedures per year, surgical reductions of fractures and/or dislocations represented 6920 procedures per year, and fasciotomies with 2848 procedures. From 2013 to 2021, there was an annual average of 276,989 osteosynthesis procedures. Open osteosynthesis, with an average of 146,547 procedures per year, represented 55% of osteosynthesis procedures. Fractures of the proximal end of the femur represented 79,549 procedures on average per year, including 46,621 (58%) involving the trochanter, while 32,852 (41%) were of the femoral neck. Wrist fractures accounted for an annual average of 55,300. Hand fractures represented an annual average of 38,444, of which 52.2% were closed (17,778). On average, 1000 fractures per year involved the carpus without scaphoid involvement, and 2177 scaphoid fractures. Ankle fractures represented 37,951 procedures on average per year, including 74% of the malleolar complex (28,199). Leg fractures represented 17,613 procedures per year, 58% tibial diaphysis (10,091), 41% tibial plateau (6,857). The strengths of this study are the exhaustiveness of the data, presenting all the Common Classification of Medical Procedures (CCAM) chosen during the defined period.

CONCLUSION

This study allowed us to establish, to our knowledge, the first epidemiological database of French orthopedic traumatology.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV; epidemiological descriptive study.

Augmented Reality Guided Laparoscopic Liver Resection: A Phantom Study With Intraparenchymal Tumors

INTRODUCTION

Augmented reality (AR) in laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) can improve intrahepatic navigation by creating a virtual liver transparency. Our team has recently developed Hepataug, an AR software that projects the invisible intrahepatic tumors onto the laparoscopic images and allows the surgeon to localize them precisely. However, the accuracy of registration according to the location and size of the tumors, as well as the influence of the projection axis, have never been measured. The aim of this work was to measure the three-dimensional (3D) tumor prediction error of Hepataug.

METHODS

Eight 3D virtual livers were created from the computed tomography scan of a healthy human liver. Reference markers with known coordinates were virtually placed on the anterior surface. The virtual livers were then deformed and 3D printed, forming 3D liver phantoms. After placing each 3D phantom inside a pelvitrainer, registration allowed Hepataug to project virtual tumors along two axes: the laparoscope axis and the operator port axis. The surgeons had to point the center of eight virtual tumors per liver with a pointing tool whose coordinates were precisely calculated.

RESULTS

We obtained 128 pointing experiments. The average pointing error was 29.4 ± 17.1 mm and 9.2 ± 5.1 mm for the laparoscope and operator port axes respectively (P = 0.001). The pointing errors tended to increase with tumor depth (correlation coefficients greater than 0.5 with P < 0.001). There was no significant dependency of the pointing error on the tumor size for both projection axes.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor visualization by projection toward the operating port improves the accuracy of AR guidance and partially solves the problem of the two-dimensional visual interface of monocular laparoscopy. Despite a lower precision of AR for tumors located in the posterior part of the liver, it could allow the surgeons to access these lesions without completely mobilizing the liver, hence decreasing the surgical trauma.

Research Note: A Novel Sullivan Method Projection Framework With Application to Long COVID

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures.

Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

Cog graft, a new septal extension graft for designing nasal tip rotation and projection in rhinoplasty

BACKGROUND

Adjusting the nasal tip rotation and tip projection according to the patient's face and wishes is a very important stage in rhinoplasty with the use of a cog graft positioning the tip point in the appropriate place is possible by adjusting the nose length, tip projection and tip rotation together.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to facilitate positioning the tip rotation and projection in the appropriate place according to the patient's needs in rhinoplasty with Cog graft.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cog graft was applied in 32 patients who underwent rhinoplasty. Cog graft was prepared from costal cartilage in 10 patients and from septal cartilage in 22 patients. Cog graft was prepared by shaping the superior edge of the septal extension graft like a gear wheel. It is fixed to provide desired projection to the caudal septum. In the position where rotation and projection are evaluated adequately, the graft is fixed with sutures. They were followed in average 18 months (between 6 and 24 months).

RESULTS

Twenty of the patients were primary cases and 12 were revision cases. The targeted rotation and projection results were achieved in all patients. All patients had satisfactory esthetic results.

CONCLUSIONS

Cog graft is a useful graft with which we can adjust the nose length, projection and rotation appropriately and in a short time with a single graft.

Estimation and projection of the burden of hearing loss in China: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

The comprehensive description of hearing loss in China and the shifting pattern remain unclear. We conducted the study to estimate the burden of hearing loss in China and project the trends from 2020 to 2034.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHOD

Data on the disease burden of hearing loss were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of hearing loss burden were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

RESULTS

In China, prevalent cases of hearing loss increased from 224.4 million in 1990 to 426.5 million in 2019, representing an increase of 90.1 %. The age-standardized prevalence rate of hearing loss ranged from 22,592.8/100,000 in 1990-22,612.4/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.003 %, representing a stable trend. Of the category of hearing loss, mild hearing loss accounted for the highest proportion, with 331.4 million people. More than 95 million people had moderate-to-complete hearing loss. Moreover, hearing loss was mostly attributable to age-related and other factors for adults and otitis media for children younger than 10 years. Based on the projection results, there will be 561 million people (40.1 % of the total population) have hearing loss by 2034.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalent cases of hearing loss in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. Over two in five Chinese people will have hearing loss by 2034, thus suggesting more solutions should be established to reduce the burden of hearing loss.

Long-Term Control of Nasal Tip Position: Quantitative Assessment of Caudal Septal Extension Graft

BACKGROUND

Control of nasal tip position is critical to final rhinoplasty outcomes. Two frequent methods of exerting tip control are columellar strut and caudal septal extension graft (SEG). Past work has demonstrated that SEG are better able to preserve tip position. However, there is no quantitative data describing long-term projection and rotation. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term maintenance of tip projection and rotation following SEG.

METHODS

A retrospective study of adult patients undergoing open rhinoplasty was conducted. Three-dimensional photogrammetric evaluation of nasal tip position was performed. Anthropometric points were analyzed preoperatively and postoperatively. Outcome variables were tip projection, tip rotation, and nasal length.

RESULTS

Twenty patients were included with an average follow-up time of 3.3 years (2.0 - 6.6 years). From postoperative week 1 to 6, there was a statistically significant decrease in rotation (-4.3%, p<0.01). There were no statistically significant decreases in projection, rotation, or nasal length from 6 weeks postoperative to 2 years postoperative, or from 6 weeks postoperative to final follow-up (2.0 - 6.6 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Nasal tip projection and rotation appear to decrease from the immediate postoperative position, likely due to resolving edema. In this study, patients that underwent open rhinoplasty with SEG experienced modest loss of projection and rotation until 6 weeks postoperative, but projection and rotation were maintained from 6 weeks postoperative to 2 years and beyond. This study provides evidence that SEG maintains long-term changes in tip projection and rotation.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV

This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Total shoulder arthroplasty in France: An analysis of trends between 2009 and 2019 and projections to the year 2070

BACKGROUND

Over the past decades, total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) procedures have steadily increased in the United States and Europe. In France, the number of shoulder surgeries rose by 24.5% between 2012 and 2018, but no study has yet analyzed TSA trends based on patient characteristics. Therefore, the aim of our study was to use the French healthcare database to (1) analyze growth trends based on the patient's sex, age, and comorbidity profile and (2) estimate the most appropriate incidence rate (IR) projections to the year 2070.

HYPOTHESIS

We hypothesize that in France, the upward trends are different for each sex and age group.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was conducted in France from 2009 to 2019 based on the French healthcare database (SNDS), which contains all nationwide procedures. Patients were analyzed by sex, age group (<65 years, 65-74 years, ≥75 years), and comorbidity profile (4 levels). IR trends per 100,000 population were inferred by patient age, sex, and comorbidity using data from the French hospital discharge database (PMSI) and population forecasts and censuses from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). Linear, Poisson, logistic, and Gompertz projection models were created to forecast IRs to the year 2070.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2019, there was a sharper increase in IR in males (+155%; from 6.0 to 15.3) than in females (+118%; from 16.2 to 35.3) across all age groups. This increase was most significant in those younger than 65 years (+112%; from 2.3 to 4.9), in both males (+129%; from 2.1 to 4.8) and females (+99%; from 2.5 to 5.0). From 2012 to 2019, the proportion of patients with mild comorbidities increased by +92% (from 5,435 to 10,410 TSAs, i.e., from 56% to 61% of total procedures), unlike the other comorbidity profiles. All the projections modeled the data from 2009 to 2019 with minor deviations. However, the logistic projection was the most likely, with a 45% increase in the IR for the overall population by 2070 (from 17,175 to 25,338 TSAs), which will start to plateau in 2050.

CONCLUSION

The IR has risen sharply in the overall population, as in all age, sex, and comorbidity categories, with the most significant growth seen in the<65 and 65-74 age groups and a shift toward patients with milder comorbidities. According to our projections, the IR will continue to be more significant in older patients, except for males, for whom the IR for those 65 to 74 years old will exceed that of those 75 and older around 2030. In the longer term, the IRs follow a logistic trend, reaching a plateau around 2050. Therefore, an increase in healthcare burden is to be expected to meet the growing demand for TSAs.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV; Descriptive epidemiological study.

The Future is Female: Urology Workforce Projection from 2020 to 2057

Multiple estimates have approximated a urologist shortage per capita of around 30% by 2030. In the context of the impending urologic workforce shortage, it is critical to have a nuanced understanding of the degree of workforce shortage in comparison with the US population to mitigate the negative downstream effects in the future. In continued growth and stagnant growth projection models, we found that female urologists make up a significant proportion of the workforce growth over the next four decades. This projection highlights the need for purposeful recruitment, structural changes, and advocacy among urology leadership to support and retain female urologists.

Vertical Alar Lengthening technique in correcting short noses

BACKGROUND

It is crucial that the nose length must be compatible with the face in order to obtain beautiful results that suits the face. Shorter and upturned noses appear as if the tip of the nose is cut from the front and gives a piggy appearance to the patient's face.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to obtain longer noses with increased tip definition by effectively lengthening the medial and lateral crura's in patients with short nose and Asian noses.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Vertical Alar Lengthening (VAL) technique was applied to 17 revision and 12 primary Asian noses. VAL technique consists of three steps. In the first step, the medial crus were lengthened by stealing from the lateral crus. Later, a lateral crural extension graft was applied to the shortened lateral crus, and the lateral crus was lengthened and sutured to the medial crus. In the final stage, a subdomal graft was placed and supported in the space formed underneath the alar tip between the mucosa and the new dome. They were followed in average 12 months (between 6 and 18 months).

RESULTS

VAL technique was applied to 17 revision and 12 primer Asian noses. Suggested surgical technique move the tip forward and downward reduced its cephalic rotation and lengthened the nose. Targeted tip point, rotation and projection results were achieved in all patients. All patients had satisfactory esthetic results.

CONCLUSIONS

In revision cases and short nose deformities in Asian noses, the nasal tip point was extended forward and downward with the VAL technique, reducing its rotation and lengthening the nose.

Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada

OBJECTIVE

Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth.

METHODS

We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios.

RESULTS

For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging.

CONCLUSION

Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.

A systematic analysis and future projections of the nutritional status and interpretation of its drivers among school-aged children in South-East Asian countries

Background

Nutrition inadequacy during childhood and adolescence can cause suboptimal growth, intergenerational effects on offspring and an increased risk of chronic diseases in adulthood. There is little information on the prevalence and drivers of malnutrition in children aged 5-19 years, in the South-East Asian setting, since most existing interventions have to date targeted undernutrition. We assessed the national prevalence of nutritional indicators, their trends, and associated risk factors among children aged 5-19 years from 11 countries of WHO South-East Asia Region (SEA Region) in order to provide evidence to guide future policy direction.

Methods

We included 5,210,646 children for analysis from 345 studies and 25 survey datasets. A Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess the quality of the study. Bayesian regression models were used to estimate the prevalence of malnutrition between 2000 and 2030, and a series of subgroup analyses were performed to assess variation in pooled estimates by different socio-demographic and lifestyle factors. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO database (CRD42023400104).

Findings

Overall, pooled analysis demonstrated that indicators of undernutrition in SEA is predicted to decrease between 2000 and 2030 including stunting (36.6%-27.2%), thinness (29.5%-6.2%), and underweight (29.2%-15.9%). However, a substantial increase in prevalence of overweight (6.0% in 2000-16.9% in 2030), and obesity (2.6%-9.5%) are predicted. The prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies between 2000 and 2030 is predicted to decrease-vitamin A by 84% and vitamin D by 53%. Parents' education levels and household wealth were inversely associated with malnutrition. Children's health-related behaviours, such as unhealthy dietary habits and spending more time watching TV, playing games, or using the computer, were associated with increased chance of overweight and obesity. There were no clear signs of publication bias in our study.

Interpretation

Our analysis highlights the pattern of a double burden of malnutrition, with clear differences between different socio-demographic groups. Despite a substantial reduction in the prevalence of stunting, underweight, and anaemia since 2000, an emerging increase in overweight/obesity and micronutrient deficiencies warrants urgent attention.

Funding

World Health Organization Regional Office for South-East Asia New Delhi, India.

Global, regional, and national trends in mesothelioma burden from 1990 to 2019 and the predictions for the next two decades

Objectives

We aimed to analyze the secular trends in mesothelioma burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time.

Material and methods

Based on the mesothelioma incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from 1990 to 2019 in Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), calculated from joinpoint regression model, was used to describe the burden trends. An age-period-cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on mesothelioma incidence and mortality trends. The mesothelioma burden was projected by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Results

Globally, there were the significant declines in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.3, P < 0.001), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC = -0.3, 95%CI: -0.4,-0.2, P < 0.001), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) (AAPC = -0.5, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.4, P < 0.001) of mesothelioma overall 30 years. For regions, Central Europe presented the most distinct increases and the most substantial decrease was observed in Andean Latin America on all ASRs (age-standardized rates) from 1990 to 2019. At national level, the largest annualized growth for full-range trends of incidence, mortality, and DALYs was in Georgia. Conversely, the fastest descent of all ASRs was observed in Peru. The ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in 2039 predicted 0.33, 0.27, and 6.90 per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusions

The global burden of mesothelioma declined over the past 30 years, with variability across regions and countries/territories, and this trend will continue in the future.

Secular trend in disease burden of leukemia and its subtypes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projection in 25 years

Leukemia and its subtypes impose a major public health challenge in China. Identifying the secular trend of leukemia burden is critical to facilitate optimal healthcare planning and improve the management of leukemia. The incidence rates of leukemia from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the following: subtype (acute lymphocytic leukemia [ALL], acute myeloid leukemia [AML], chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL], chronic myelogenous leukemia [CML], and other leukemia subtypes), sex, and age group. The average annual percentage changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also applied to predict the future trend of the incidence of leukemia and its subtypes in the next 25 years. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of leukemia slightly declined in males and females, which is similar to the trend of other leukemia subtypes. However, the four major leukemia subtypes, namely, ALL, AML, CLL, and CML, have been on the rise over the past three decades. The incidence rates of leukemia in children and the elderly were considerably higher than those in other age groups in males and females. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for leukemia incidence. Period effects showed that the risks of leukemia and its subtypes incidence increased with time. For cohort effects, the risks of leukemia and its subtypes were higher among the early-born cohorts compared with the late-born cohorts. The ASIRs of leukemia and its subtypes will continue to increase in the next 25 years. The burden of leukemia and its subtypes is expected to continue to increase in the next 25 years in males and females. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of leukemia and its subtypes is needed to formulate timely and effective intervention measures to reduce the leukemia burden in China.

Total knee arthroplasty in France: Male-driven rise in procedures in 2009-2019 and projections for 2050

BACKGROUND

The number of Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) procedures has been rising steadily for several decades in Europe and the USA. The increase varies in pace across countries, with a gradual climb in northern and central Europe, a slowing in the USA, and an exponential surge in the UK. In France, a 32.2% rise in the number of TKA and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty procedures was documented between 2012 and 2018. However, no study has focussed specifically on changes in both TKA procedures and the features of TKA patients. The objective of this study was to use the French national healthcare database to evaluate (1) increases in TKA procedures according to sex and age, (2) whether TKA is being performed at increasingly younger ages, (3) whether the comorbidity profile at TKA is changing, and (4) whether the TKA incidence rate will stabilise in the future, with a projection for 2050.

HYPOTHESIS

In France, the number of TKA procedures is rising in both males and females but the pace of the increases differs between sexes.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

This study used data collected in France in 2009-2019, separately for different age groups and for males and females, in the French national healthcare database (Système national des données de santé, SNDS) that collects information on all surgical procedures performed nationwide. Based on information about the TKA procedures, we determined (1) the TKA incidence rates with their time trends and (2) indirectly, the comorbidity profiles of the patients at TKA. Linear, Poisson, and logistic models were built to predict incidence rates in 2030, 2040, and 2050.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2019, the TKA incidence rate showed a steeper increase in males than in females (from 71.2 to 122.9 [+73%] vs. 124.2 to 181.0 [+46%], respectively). Although this increase was replicated in all age groups, it was sharper in patients younger than 65 years, in both males and females (from 20.9 to 37.9 [+82%] and 33.6 to 51.3 [+53%], respectively). During the study period, the number and proportion of patients increased in the group with mild comorbidities (from 40 093 to 67 430 TKAs, i.e., from 53.1% to 65.7% of all TKAs) but not in the other comorbidity groups. All projection models were validated. Nonetheless, the most likely scenario, provided by the logistic model, is a 33% rise by 2050 in both males and females (i.e., to 151 575 TKA procedures) with a plateau starting around 2030.

CONCLUSION

Although the increase in TKA procedures is more marked in males than in females, the trends are similar in both sexes, with a sharper rise in the group younger than 65 years and a shift toward patients with milder comorbidities. In the longer term, incidence rate trends follow logistic dynamics, with a plateau starting around 2030. To meet the increasing demand, a corresponding development in relevant healthcare resources must be planned.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV, descriptive epidemiological study.

Influence of demographic change on the demand for radiotherapy using forecasted predictions for prostate cancer in Germany

PURPOSE

Demographic change will lead to an increase in age-associated cancers. The demand for primary treatment, especially oncologic therapies, is difficult to predict. This work is an attempt to project the demand for radiation therapy (RT) in 2030, taking into account demographic changes using prostate cancer (PC) as an example.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using the GENESIS database of the Federal Statistical Office, we retrieved demographic population projections for 2030 and retrospective demographic surveys from 1999 to 2019. Additionally, we queried incidence rates for PC in the respective age groups of 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, and +85 years from 1999-2019 via the Federal Cancer Registry of the Robert Koch Institute. We used a regression method to determine the age-dependent correlation between the incidence of PC and the population size of the respective age group by combining the data from 1999 to 2019. This information was used to calculate the incidence rates in the age groups of the expected population for 2030 and the expected new cases of PC in 2030. Finally, we extrapolated the indications for the demand for RT based on data from the Report on Cancer Incidence in Germany from 2016.

RESULTS

Considering a population-dependent incidence rate, an increase in new cases of PC is expected. This increase is particularly evident in the age groups of 70-74 and 80-84 years. With regards to RT, the estimate indicates an overall increase of 27.4% in demand. There is also a shift in RT demands towards older patients, especially in the 80- to 84-year-old age group.

CONCLUSION

We observe an age-associated increase in primary cases of PC. This is likely to result in an increased demand for RT. The exact demand cannot be predicted. However, trends can be estimated to plan for the demand. This, though, requires a good database from cancer registries.

Increasing probability of record-population exposure to high temperature and related health-risks in China

Combining the comprehensive effects of temperature and humidity, this study applies a heat stress index to project future population exposure to high temperature and related health-risks over China under different climate change scenarios. Results show that the number of high temperature days, population exposure and their related health-risks will increase significantly in the future compared to the reference period (1985-2014), which is mainly caused by the change of >T99p (the wet bulb globe temperature >99th percentile derived from the reference period). The population effect is absolutely dominant in influencing the decrease in exposure to T90-95p (the wet bulb globe temperature is in the range of (90th, 95th]) and T95-99p (the wet bulb globe temperature is in the range of (95th, 99th]), and the climate effect is the most prominent contributor to the upsurge in exposure to > T99p in most areas. An additional 0.1 billion person-days increase in population exposure to T90-95p, T95-99p and >T99p in a given year is associated with the number of deaths by 1002 (95% CI: 570-1434), 2926 (95% CI: 1783-4069) and 2635 (95% CI: 1345-3925), respectively. Compared with the reference period, total exposure to high temperature under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario will increase to 1.92 (2.01) times in the near-term (2021-2050) and 2.16 (2.35) times in the long-term (2071-2100), which will increase the number of people at heat risk by 1.2266 (95% CI: 0.6341-1.8192) [1.3575 (95% CI: 0.6926-2.0223)] and 1.5885 (95% CI: 0.7869-2.3902) [1.8901 (95% CI:0.9230-2.8572)] million, respectively. Significant geographic variations exist in the changes of exposure and related health-risks. The change is greatest in the southwest and south, whereas it is relatively small in the northeast and north. The findings provide several theoretical references for climate change adaptation.

Spatial-temporal trends in global childhood overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030: a weight mean center and projection analysis of 191 countries

BACKGROUND

The geographic information science-based interactive map provided good prospects for the public health to study disease prevalence. The purpose of this study is to understand global spatial-temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and underlying causes help formulating intervention strategies.

METHODS

This multiple cross-sectional study included data on childhood overweight and obesity prevalence, gross national income per capita, and urbanization rate for 191 countries from 1975-2016. Autoregressive integrated moving average model, standard deviational ellipse model and mixed-effects models were used to explore spatial-temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and associations with gross national income per capita and urbanization rate.

RESULTS

Globally, childhood overweight and obesity rate would reach 30.0% in 2030 (boys: 34.2%, girls: 27.4%). By 2030, it would reach 58.3% in middle- and high-income countries and 68.1% in Western Pacific region. Spatial-temporal trendline for childhood overweight and obesity in 1975-2030 exhibited a "C" shape, migrating from 1975 (15.6。E, 24.6。N) to 2005 (10.6。E, 21.7。N), then to 2030 (14.8。E, 17.4。N). The trendline for urbanization rate was also an irregular "C", and the turning point appeared five years earlier than childhood overweight and obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, childhood overweight and obesity prevalence will continue to increase. Its weight mean center migrated from western countries to Asia and Africa following economic development.

Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years

BACKGROUND

The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Consecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38-1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990-2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.

Temporal trends and projections of gynecological cancers in China, 2007-2030

BACKGROUND

Gynecological cancer will become a more important public health problem in future years but limited evidence on gynecological cancer burden in China.

METHODS

We extracted age-specific rate of cancer cases and deaths during 2007-2016 from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, and estimated age-specific population size using the data released by National Bureau of Statistics of China. Cancer burden were calculated by multiplying the rates with the population size. Temporal trends of the cancer cases, incidence, deaths, and mortality during 2007-2016 were calculated by JoinPoint Regression Program, and from 2017 to 2030 were projected by grey prediction model GM (1,1).

RESULTS

In China, total gynecological cancer cases increased from 177,839 to 241,800, with the average annual percentage change of 3.5% (95% CI: 2.7-4.3%) during 2007-2016. Cervical, uterine, ovarian, vulva, and other gynecological cancer cases increased by 4.1% (95% CI: 3.3-4.9%), 3.3% (95% CI: 2.6-4.1%), 2.4% (95% CI: 1.4-3.5%), 4.4% (95% CI: 2.5-6.4%), and 3.6% (95% CI: 1.4-5.9%) respectively. From 2017 to 2030, projected gynecological cancer cases are changing from 246,581 to 408,314. Cervical, vulva and vaginal cancers showed evident upward trend, while uterine and ovarian cancer cases are slightly increasing. The increases for age-standardized incidence rates were similar with that of cancer cases. Temporal trends of cancer deaths and mortality were similar with that of cancer cases and incidence during 2007-2030, except that uterine cancer deaths and mortality were declined.

CONCLUSIONS

With the aging of population and other increased risk factors, the burden of gynecological cancers in China is likely to be grew rapidly in the future, comprehensive gynecological cancer control should be concerned.

Emission factors and emission inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from hair products application in hair salons in Beijing through measurement

Hair products application in hair salons is a potential VOCs emission source. 139 representative hair salons were investigated and 88 hair products were sampled to establish VOC emission factors and emission inventory. VOC emission factors were 6.75 g/kg for shampoo, 43.55 g/kg for hair mask, 27.62 g/kg for hair oil, 52.44 g/kg for hair dye, 32.01 g/kg for perm cream, 54.08 g/kg for elastin, 156.40 g/kg for hair styling gel, 78.88 g/kg for hair clay, 70.25 g/kg for hair wax, and 447.88 g/kg for hair styling spray. VOC emissions from hair products application in hair salons in Beijing had increased from 362.77 t in 2011 to 393.40 t in 2020. Hair styling spray, hair dye, perm cream and hair mask were the four largest contributors to total emissions, together accounting for 93.68 %. The high VOC emissions and emission intensity mainly located in six central urban districts. The per capita VOC emissions were 0.018 kg VOCs/person/year in 2020. Projection indicates it can reduce VOC emissions by 9.72 % by 2030 compared with that in 2020 if the VOC content limit standard of hair products will be implemented, otherwise, VOC emissions keep raising, urgently needing VOC control measures in hair products application.

Unveiling the hidden economic toll of biological invasions in the European Union

Background

Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated.

Results

We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)-the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions-to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states.

Conclusions

Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00750-3.

Projection of morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer between 2020 and 2050 across 42 low- and middle-income countries

Objective

Aim of the study is to predict trends in morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer in 42 LMICs between 2020 and 2050.

Design

and Setting: National level cross-sectional breast cancer related data between 1990 and 2019 were used. Recurrent Neural Network, Long-Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM) model was employed to forecast the trend in breast cancer burden.

Main outcomes and measures

Age standardized breast cancer incidence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rates.

Results

By 2050, the age standardized breast cancer incidence rate is expected to increase in 38 LMICs with highest incidence rate in Namibia; 127.0 (78.0-176.0) followed by Nigeria 71.1 (53.9-88.3) and Papua New Guinea 70.6 (88.7-74.6). Similarly, the age standardized breast cancer mortality and DALYs rates in 2050 are expected to increase in 33 and 35 LMICs respectively. The highest mortality and DALYs rates in 2050 are expected to be 64.7 (42.6-86.7) in Namibia and 1543.6 (1463.1-1624.1) in Pakistan. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) is expected to increase uniformly in all the countries during the same period. Due to considerable variation in exposure risk, such as high plasma glucose level, high body mass index (BMI) and socio-demographic index (SDI), high regional disparity in burden of breast cancer is expected among the countries.

Conclusion

and Relevance: Breast cancer burden is expected to increase in most of the LMICs with high regional disparity by 2050. Our study's finding focuses on LMICs with high breast cancer burden that require tailored strategies and effective action plans to ensure prevention from catastrophic consequences in the future. Minimizing the exposure to behavioral and metabolic risk factors such as high plasma glucose, high BMI, along with tackling the issue of low fertility rate would be important in managing breast cancer burden in LMICs.

Trends in the utilisation of skilled birth attendance among pregnant women in Benin, from 2001 to 2017-2018, and projections to 2030

BACKGROUND

Skilled birth attendance during childbirth is known to promote better pregnancy outcomes as well as contribute to maternal and newborn survival. The study aimed to analyse the progress in the use of skilled birth attendance by pregnant women over the last two decades (2001 to 2017-2018) in Benin, and then to make projections to 2030.

METHODS

A secondary analysis was made using Benin's Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) databases. The study population were i) women of 15-49 years of age who were successfully surveyed and usually resided in the households visited during DHS-II, DHS-III, DHS-IV and DHS-V, ii) and had had at least one live birth in the five years preceding each of these surveys. For each DHS, the corresponding proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel was determined. The study then generated the Annual Percent Change (APC) between each survey and globally, and projections were made to 2030.

RESULTS

Nationally, the percentage of women who gave birth attended by skilled health personnel was 67.39% in 2001, 76.10% in 2006, 80.87% in 2011-2012, and 79.12% in 2017-2018; this represents an APC = 0.98% between 2001 and 2017-2018. If the historical rate of progression is maintained, it is expected that by 2030, 89.35% of pregnant women will be using skilled birth attendance services.

CONCLUSION

Efforts are needed to understand the drivers of skilled birth attendance among pregnant women to adopt appropriate strategies.

Introspective Projection: Prototypical Representations of Policing in the Service of Rule of Law

Mass protests that have taken place over the past decade in various Western democracies have called into question the role of police in society, as officers have employed measures to contain rallies protesting for or against various issues. A number of these protests have resorted to violent means, resisting the police or protesting directly against their role and methods. The present study sought to investigate the prototypical representations of the police that lay citizens use to forge or desist identification with police officers. Social identification enables citizens to consider the police as ingroup members, facilitating respect for their authority. Conversely, identifying the police as outgroup precipitates resistance. The study involved 41 in-depth interviews carried out with citizens of Malta between May and June 2020. Thematic Networks Analysis revealed various points of consensus as well as a number of controversial themes. In particular, respondents demonstrated sceptical attitudes regarding policing on the beat for fear of overfamiliarity, rooted in introspective attributions projected at the police as merely human. Moreover, respondents expressed support for technological innovations that overcome natural psychological tendencies. The findings of this study suggest that seeking increasing trust in the police may be a red herring for policymakers. Rather, efforts should be directed at developing inter-objective systems, (e.g. body-cams), that overcome individual psychological propensities.

Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty: A French multicenteric retrospective descriptive study from 2009 to 2019 with projections to 2050

INTRODUCTION

Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is a reliable and reproducible procedure. While some surgeons have incorporated it into their therapeutic armamentarium, others do not use it routinely, leading to a large disparity in practice. The objective of this study was to investigate in France the epidemiology of UKA from 2009 to 2019 to identify: (1) the evolution of growth trends by sex and age, (2) the evolution of the state of comorbidity of patients during the operation, (3) the evolution of trends according to the regions, (4) the projection best suited to the observations at 2050.

HYPOTHESIS

Our hypothesis was that in France, an increase would be observed over the period studied, differing according to the characteristics of the population.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

The study was conducted in France over the 2009-2019 period for each gender and age group. The data was taken from the NHDS (National Health Data System) database, which includes all the procedures carried out in France. Based on the collection of procedures performed, the incidence rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) and their evolution were deduced, as well as the indirect assessment of the patient's comorbidity status. Using linear, Poisson, and logistic projection models, incidence rates were projected to the years 2030, 2040, and 2050.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2019, the incidence rate of UKA increased sharply (from 12.76 to 19.57; +53%), the growth was different in men (from 10.78 to 20.34; +89%) and women (from 14.61 to 18.85; +29%). The male/female sex ratio increased from 0.69 in 2009 to 1.0 in 2019. The increase was greatest among men under 65 (from 4.9 to 9.9; +100%) and lowest among women over 75 (from 41.2 to 40.5; -2%). Over the period studied, the proportion of patients with mild comorbidities (HPG1) increased (from 71.7% to 81.1%) at the expense of the other classes with more severe comorbidities. This dynamic was observed for all age groups: 0-64 years (from 83.3% to 90%), 65-74 years (from 81.4% to 88.4%), 75 years and over (38 .2% to 52.6%) regardless of sex. There was a strong disparity between the regions with a change in the incidence rate ranging from -22% (from 29.8 to 23.1) for Corsica to +251% (from 13.9 to 48.7) for Brittany. The proposed projection models suggested an increase in the incidence rate of +18% in logistic regression, +103% in linear regression by 2050.

DISCUSSION

Our study showed strong growth in the number of UKAs in France over the period studied, being highest in young men. The proportion of patients with fewer comorbidities increased for all age groups. A disparity in inter-regional practice was identified, with indications that remain ambiguous and differ according to the practitioner. We can expect continued growth in the years to come, adding to the care burden.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV; Descriptive epidemiological study.

Projections of cancer mortality by 2025 in central China: A modeling study of global burden of disease 2019

Background

In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies.

Methods

Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer.

Conclusion

A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Socioeconomic impact and burden of hypertension in the Philippines projected in 2050

Hypertension has remained the number one cause of cardiovascular death in the Philippines for over three (3) decades. Despite this finding, the burden accounted for by hypertension is investigated to a lesser extent. We performed this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of hypertension in the Philippines, and it was projected in the next 30 years. We gathered primary data through interviews, Labor Force Survey (N = 806), and secondary data from various government published reports. The cost of illness (COI) was calculated using the direct morbidity and mortality costs. The impact (% of respondents) of uncontrolled hypertension on productivity at work showed the following; four (4) days missing work (72%) and ten (10) days lost of productivity (63%). The impact (% of respondents) of uncontrolled hypertension on productivity at home showed the following: six (6) days of household suspended (66%), eleven (11) days reduced household work (78%), and five (5) days affected social activity (60%). The productivity loss of premature mortality accounts for 17% of the total economic burden in 2020 and will increase to 20% by 2050. In 2020, 70% of the total economic burden was accounted for direct & indirect care. At its present value, the economic cost of hypertension is expected to increase from US$1 billion in 2020 to US$1.9 billion by 2050. The socioeconomic impact of uncontrolled hypertension in the Philippines was enormous, challenging, and overwhelming for the next 30 years.

Statistical Methods Inspired by Challenges in Pediatric Cancer Multi-omics

Pediatric cancer multi-omics is a uniquely rewarding and challenging domain of biomedical research. Public generosity bestows an abundance of resources for the study of extremely rare diseases; this unique dynamic creates a research environment in which problems with high-dimension and low sample size are commonplace. Here, we present a few statistical methods that we have developed for our research setting and believe will prove valuable in other biomedical research settings as well. The genomic random interval (GRIN) method evaluates the loci and frequency of genomic abnormalities in the DNA of tumors to identify genes that may drive the development of malignancies. The association of lesions with expression (ALEX) method evaluates the impact of genomic abnormalities on the RNA transcription of nearby genes to inform the formulation of biological hypotheses on molecular mechanisms. The projection onto the most interesting statistical evidence (PROMISE) method identifies omic features that consistently associate with better prognosis or consistently associate with worse prognosis across multiple measures of clinical outcome. We have shown that these methods are statistically robust and powerful in the statistical bioinformatic literature and successfully used these methods to make fundamental biological discoveries that have formed the scientific rationale for ongoing clinical trials. We describe these methods and illustrate their application on a publicly available T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) data set. A companion github site ( https://github.com/stjude/TALL-example ) provides the R code and data necessary to recapitulate the example data analyses of this chapter.

Predictors of Oculomotor Nerve Palsy with Posterior Communicating Aneurysm Clipping in a Surgically Treated Series of 585 Patients: A Single-Center Study

BACKGROUND

Oculomotor nerve palsy (OMNP) is a known risk in surgical management of intracranial aneurysms. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for surgery-induced OMNP.

METHODS

This retrospective study examined 585 patients with posterior communicating artery aneurysms treated surgically between January 2000 and July 2019. The patients were categorized into 2 groups according to whether they experienced OMNP. Multiple factors, including sex, age, history of subarachnoid hemorrhage, Hunt and Hess grade, Fisher grade, preoperative time, sizes, sides, number, orientation, intraoperative rupture, and morphology, were analyzed to identify factors associated with surgery-induced OMNP.

RESULTS

The overall OMNP rate was 4.4%. In univariate analysis, large size (P < 0.001), posterior infratentorial projection (P = 0.003), number of subarachnoid hemorrhages (P = 0.005), and late preoperative time (P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk of OMNP. Overall, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that size (10.1-25 mm: odds ratio [OR] 30.083, P = 0.001, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.703-244.419; >25 mm: OR 62.179, P = 0.012, 95% CI, 2.402-1609.418), intraoperative rupture (OR 3.018, P = 0.035, 95% CI, 1.083-8.412), and preoperative time (>14 days: OR 10.985, P < 0.001, 95% CI, 3.840-31.428) were independent risk factors of surgery-induced OMNP.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that size, intraoperative rupture, and preoperative time were independent predictors of surgery-induced OMNP. Use of advanced technologies during the operation can assist in avoiding this complication.

Projections of heatwave-attributable mortality under climate change and future population scenarios in China

BACKGROUND

In China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.

METHODS

We derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.

FINDINGS

The number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.

INTERPRETATION

With accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.

FUNDING

National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).

Estimated projection of oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer deaths in Spain to 2044

Background

Oral cavity cancer (OCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are two common malignancies whose mortality is worryingly increasing worldwide. However, few studies have estimated the mortality trends for these cancers in the coming years. This study analysed the mortality rates for OCC and OPC observed between 1980 and 2019 to generate a predictive model for the next 25 years in Spain.

Methods

Mid-year population data and death certificates for the period 1980–2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. The Nordpred program (Norwegian Cancer Registry, Oslo, Norway) was used to calculate adjusted mortality rates as well as estimated mortality projections with an age-period-cohort model for the period 2020–2044.

Results

The specific mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants for OCC decreased from 2.36 (1980–1984) to 2.17 (2015–2019) and is expected to decline to 1.68 (2040–2044), particularly in males. For OPC, mortality rates rose from 0.67 (1980–1984) to 1.23 (2015–2019) and are projected to drop to 0.71 (2040–2044). In the group of females > 65 years predictions showed rising mortality rates for both OCC and OPC. The predictive model projects more deaths in females than in males for OCC in the period 2040–2044, while deaths for OPC will decrease in males and gradually increase in females.

Conclusions

Although OCC mortality rates have been found to decrease in males in the last observed decades, there is still room to improve them in females > 65 years in the future by promoting campaigns against smoking and alcohol consumption. OPC mortality will become a growing health problem. Vaccination campaigns for the prevention of human papillomavirus-associated cancers may have a long-term impact on the mortality of these cancers, which should be evaluated in upcoming studies.

Clinical relevance

Our findings highlighted the importance of closely monitoring OCC and OPC mortality rates in the coming years by age group and sex, and the need to continue preventive measures against the main known risk factors, such as tobacco, alcohol, and human papillomavirus infection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12903-022-02487-6.

Projecting future temperature-related mortality using annual time series data: An example from Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Previous studies projecting future temperature-related mortality under climate change have mostly used short-term temperature-mortality associations based on daily time series data. The present study aimed to project mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in 21st century in Hong Kong by using analysis of annual data during 1976-2018.

METHODS

We employed a degree-days approach, calculating the sum of daily degrees above or below certain temperature threshold within a relevant historical year. The yearly age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were regressed on annual hot and cold degree-days in quasi-Poisson generalized additive models to assess the exposure-response function that was subsequently used to calculate future changes in ASMR. The projection was performed without and with certain human adaptation assumed.

RESULTS

ASMRs were projected to have net increases under RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, with increased mortality attributable to excess hot days exceeding decreases attributable to excess cold days. The average net changes under RCP8.5 was estimated to be 0.12%, 12.44%, 38.99%, and 89.25% during 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, respectively. Higher projected ASMRs were estimated for those aged over 75 years and for cardiovascular deaths. When human adaptation was considered, slope reduction alone under RCP4.5 and 6.0 and all adaptation assumptions under RCP8.5 might still not offset its corresponding adverse impact.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected decreases in cold-related mortality do not compensate for projected increases in heat-related mortality in Hong Kong. Better public adaptations strategies are warranted for coping with the adverse health impacts of climate change on a local scale.

Fracture pattern projection on 3D bone models as support for bone fracture simulations

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Obtaining bone models that represent certain types of fractures is limited by the need for such fractures to occur in real life and to be processed from medical images. This work aims to propose a method that starts from the design of specific fracture patterns in order to be projected on 3D geometric bone models, being prepared for their subsequent geometric fracturing.

METHODS

The process of projecting expert-generated fracture patterns has been approached in such a way that they contain geometrical and topological information for the subsequent fracture of the triangle mesh representing the bone model, giving information about the validity of the fracture pattern due to the design process, the validation performed, and the relationships between the fracture lines.

RESULTS

Different 3D models of long bones have been used (femur, humerus, ulna and fibula). Also, different types of fracture patterns have been created. These patterns have been used to obtain their projection on three-dimensional bones. In this study, an expert validation of the fracture patterns projected on the bone models is performed. A forensic validation of the fracture patterns used as starting point for the projection is also performed for cases in which this fracture is produced by impact, for which there is scientific evidence based on forensic analysis. This validation also supports the experts, giving them the necessary feedback to complete or modify their fracture patterns according to criteria analyzed from a forensic point of view.

CONCLUSIONS

The patterns fit the bone models correctly, despite the irregularities of the bone models, and correspond to the expected projection. In addition, it provides us with a clear line of work, by using the topological information of the fracture pattern and the bone model, which allows us to establish a consistent basis for future guided fractures.

Leveraging machine learning methods to quantify 50 years of dwindling groundwater in India

Global compilations and regional studies, indicative of the unsustainable extraction and subsequent unremittingly depleting groundwater (GW) in India, either provide bulk estimates or are confined to the river basins and therefore conceal inferences from a nationwide policymaking perspective. Here, we provide the state-wise past (2000-2020) and future (2030-2050) assessment of dwindling groundwater in India utilizing in-situ groundwater levels (GWL) from 54,112 wells, remote sensing products, and hydrological simulations. By employing three machine learning methods, we show a decline in GWL of over 80% in North India with a notable shift towards the eastern state of Uttar Pradesh and a cumulative groundwater loss (169.96 ± 19.67 km³) equivalent to the water storage capacity of the world's biggest dam (Kariba Dam, Zimbabwe). Its likely contribution to sea-level rise (0.47 ± 0.06 mm) is about 64% of that from annual global glacier melt. Our results typically contrast the GW recovery paradox in South India (e.g., a declining trend of -84.48 ± 38.81 mm/a (p < 0.05) in Andhra Pradesh during 2000-2020), reveal high seasonal variability (e.g., up to ~6 m in Maharashtra), and illustrate the skewed effect of survivor bias in the traditional assessments. We infer the significant impact of underlying hydrogeology and the implementation of water-related policies and projects on the GWL dynamic and variability in the region. Projected GWL reveals a likely water scarcity situation for about 2.8 million km² area and one billion residents of the country up to 2050. Our observation-based analysis offers insights into the state-level monthly GW dynamics, which is critical for efficient interstate resource allocation, development plans, and policy interventions with broad methodological implications for the water-scarce countries.

The Trend and Prediction of Cervical Cancer Incidence in Delhi, India: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study is to assess the trend of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIRs) of cervical cancer, standardised median age at diagnosis, and projection of cervical cancer incidence rate and the number of new cases up to 2030. The projections help in making strategies for resource allocation to circumvent the future burden.

METHODS

The data were extracted from the Delhi population-based cancer registry from 1990 to 2014. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to ASIRs to assess the trend. The natural cubic splines age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted to project the incidence rate and incidence cases. The trend of standardised median age at diagnosis and percentage of cervical cancer to total women cancer was also assessed using regression analysis. Projections of new cases are decomposed into three components aging, the structure of the population, and age-specific incidence rate.

RESULTS

The age-standardised incidence rate of cervical cancer decreased with an annual decline at a rate of 2.98% (95% CI -3.48 to -2.47) from 1990 to 2014. The standardised median age at diagnosis showed an upward trend with an average annual increase of 0.167 per year and the median age increased by 4.18 years during 25-years period, this change was due to the shifting of the peak from 40-44 in 1990 to 60-64 in 2014. The APC model revealed ASIRs would decline by 43.8% in 2030 compared to average ASIRs 2010-2014, albeit a net 12% increase in the incidence cases. An increase in incidence cases is primarily attributed to the aging of the population and population  growth by 38.87% and 33.84% respectively.  The trend analysis of  cervical cancer ASIRs in pre (< 50 years) and post menopause (≥ 50 years) showed a decreasing trend. However, the ratio of cervical to total women increased over time from 1:1 in 1990 to 2:3 in 2014.

CONCLUSION

The declining trend in ASIRs was observed in Delhi and will continue to decrease up to 2030.  The burden of the number of new cases of cervical cancer showed an upward trend primarily due to the aging of the population and shifting of population structure. To counter this big challenge a cost-effective vaccination for vulnerable populations, community-based screening programs, and awareness about cervical cancer prevention might help in eliminating this preventable cancer.

Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?

Background

The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases was expected to increase during the Tokyo Olympic Games because of the increased physical contact within and between the domestic population and international participants of the Games. The rapid rise of the Delta variant (B.1.617) in Japan meant that hosting the Olympic Games without any restrictions was likely to lead to an increase in cases. We aimed to quantitatively assess possible COVID-19 response strategies for the Olympic Games, comparing the prevalence of severe cases and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths via scenario analysis.

Methods

We used a discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group. Parameters were calibrated using the age-stratified COVID-19 incidence data in Osaka. Numerical simulations incorporated the planned Olympics Games and nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model, alongside various subjects and types of countermeasures.

Results

Our model-informed approach suggested that having spectators at the Tokyo Olympic Games could lead to a surge in both cases and hospitalization. Projections for the scenario that explicitly incorporated the spread of the Delta variant (i.e., time-dependent increase in the relative transmissibility) showed that imposing stringent social distancing measures (Rt=0.7) for more than 8 weeks from the end of the Olympic Games might be required to suppress the prevalence of severe cases of COVID-19 to avoid overwhelming the intensive care unit capacity in Tokyo.

Conclusions

Our modeling analyses guided an optimal choice of COVID-19 response during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games, allowing the epidemic to be brought under control despite such a large mass gathering.

Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

OBJECTIVES

Understanding epidemiology trends and patterns of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting the burden to 2030 will provide foundations for future policies development.

METHODS

We collected incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to depict the trends of pancreatic cancer burden and predicted the incidence and mortality in the next decade by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

RESULTS

The number of incident cases sharply increased from 26.77 thousand in 1990 to 114.96 thousand in 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) nearly doubled from 3.17 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.78 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.12, 2.51). The mortality and DALYs presented a similar pattern with incidence. The dominant risk factor for pancreatic cancer was smoking, but the contribution of high body-mass index increased from 1990 to 2019. We projected that the incident cases and deaths of pancreatic cancer would increase to 218.79 thousand and 222.97 thousand, respectively, in 2030 with around 2 times growth.

CONCLUSIONS

During the past three decades, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of pancreatic cancer gradually increased in China, and the absolute number and rate of pancreatic cancer burden would continue to rise over the next decade. Comprehensive policies and strategies need to be implemented to reduce the incidence and mortality.

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO2 and CH4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH₄ fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO₂ uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH₄ emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH₄ emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m^-2 year^-1. In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO₂ changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m^-2 year^-1 to a source of 369.6 gC m^-2 year^-1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH₄ and the sink strength of CO₂. We conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH₄ fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.

Potential of prevention strategies for the modifiable risk factor type 2 diabetes with relation to the future number of dementia patients in Germany- a multi-state projection through 2040

Background

We assess the impact of prevention strategies regarding type 2 diabetes as a modifiable risk factor for dementia and its consequences for the future number of dementia patients in Germany.

Methods

We used a random sample of health claims data (N = 250,000) of insured persons aged 50+ drawn in 2014, and data on population size and death rates in 2015 from the Human Mortality Database. Using exponential hazard models, we calculated age- and sex-specific transition probabilities and death rates between the states (no diabetes/no dementia, diabetes/no dementia, no diabetes/dementia, diabetes/dementia). In multi-state projections, we estimated the future number of dementia cases aged 75+ through 2040 depending on the development of the incidence of diabetes among persons without diabetes and without dementia, and the dementia incidence among persons with and without diabetes.

Results

In 2015 there were 1.53 million people with dementia aged 75+ in Germany. A relative annual reduction in death rates of 2.5% and in dementia incidence in persons without diabetes of 1% will increase this number to 3.38 million by 2040. A relative reduction of diabetes incidence by 1% annually would decrease dementia cases by around 30,000, while a reduction of dementia incidence among people with diabetes by 1% would result in 220,000 fewer dementia cases. Both prevention strategies combined would prevent 240,000 dementia cases in 2040.

Conclusions

The increase in life expectancy is decisive for the future number of people with dementia. Strategies of better diabetes treatment have the potential to lower the increase in the number of dementia patients in the coming decades.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02682-6.

Bsoft: Image Processing for Structural Biology

Bsoft is a software package primarily developed for processing electron micrographs, with the goal of determining the structures of biologically relevant molecules, molecular assemblies, and parts of cells. However, it incorporates many ways to deal with images, from the mundane to very sophisticated algorithms. This article is an introduction into its use, illustrating that it is an extensive toolbox, for manipulating and understanding images. Bsoft has over 150 programs, allowing the user an infinite number of ways to process images. These programs can be executed on the command line, or through the interactive program called brun. The main visualization program is bshow, providing numerous ways to manipulate and interpret images. The primary aim is to provide the user with powerful capabilities, including processing large numbers of images. An important additional aim is to make it as accessible as possible, making it easier to deal with image formats and features, and enhance productivity.

Projected changes in terrestrial water storage and associated flood potential across the Yangtze River basin

Terrestrial water storage is a crucial component in water cycle and plays an important role in flood formations process, particularly in a changing environment. In this study, we aim to examine the future variation of terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and associated flood potential in one of the most flood-prone regions, the Yangtze River basin in China. Using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, we perform bias correction for seven general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. The spatiotemporal characteristics of changes in future Flood Potential Index are projected and compared between the near (2031-2060) and far (2071-2100) future with reference to the historical period (1985-2014). The results show that GCMs-simulated TWSA generally agrees well with the GRACE results after downscaling and bias correction with the average correlation coefficient of 0.86, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.73 and the root mean square error of 21.68 mm. We found that the total variance of projected TWSA is mainly sourced from the internal variability and model uncertainties, while the uncertainties in scenarios contribute relatively less. Moreover, the flood potential is projected to decline during the near future under various scenarios and even lower during the far future under SSP585 scenario. Our findings provide implications for flood control and management under climate change over high flood risk regions worldwide.

Trends, projection and inequalities in full immunization coverage in Ethiopia: in the period 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

Immunization is among the most cost-effective health interventions to improve child survival. However, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa failed to achieve their national and international coverage targets repeatedly. The present study investigated trends of coverage and inequalities in coverage in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study used data from five rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Ethiopia in 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2019. The surveys used a multistage cluster sampling procedure to obtain a nationally and sub-nationally representative data. The outcome variables included in the study were full immunization coverage and inequality. The World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit was used to conduct the inequality analysis. Projections for 2025 were based on smoothed averages generated using the demographic and health survey data from 2000 to 2019.

RESULTS

The full (basic) immunization coverage in Ethiopia has increased steadily from 14.3% in 2000 to 44.1% in 2019. Based on the average past performance, the immunization coverage is projected to reach 53.6% by 2025, which will be short of the 75% national full (basic) immunization coverage target for the year 2025. Mothers with higher levels of education are more likely to get their children all basic vaccinations than those with lower levels of education. Similarly, the inequality gaps due to wealth and residency are significant; where children in the lowest wealth strata and those living in rural areas remained disadvantaged.

CONCLUSION

Despite a steady increase in immunization coverage in the past two decades the country is yet to achieve its immunization target. Thus, more efforts are needed to achieve the current and future national immunization targets. A more focused intervention targeting the disadvantaged groups could be an effective strategy to achieve coverage and minimize the inequality gaps in immunization.

Historical global land surface air apparent temperature and its future changes based on CMIP6 projections

The warming magnitudes under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the spatial distribution of global land surface air apparent temperature (APT) since the early of the 20 century were systematically analyzed, based on the comparisons among in-situ observations, extended reanalysis, and the CMIP6 model output. The warming of APT by the mid and late 21st century was then projected, as well as under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C threshold for global warming. The study reveals: 1) the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (MME) agrees well with the observations in terms of the climatological mean and temporal variations for the global land surface air temperature (SAT) and the calculated APT over the past 100 years. 2) Although the spatial gradient distribution of SAT and APT is quite similar under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the warming trend of global surface APT over land is significantly larger than that of SAT. Population living in low latitudes will be more vulnerable to the enhanced warming of APT. 3) Under the global warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, the global mean APT estimated under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 is identical, which are 1.9 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively. The projected APT will increase by 3.9 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 6.7 °C under SSP5-8.5 at the end of the 21st century relative to the pre-industrial. This study highlights that the probability and intensity of extreme warm events for land SAT and APT around the globe under SSP5-8.5 will be remarkably higher than SSP2-4.5 in the 21st century, implying the urgent demand of regulating greenhouse gas emissions toward reducing thermal discomfort in the future.