Single baseline serum creatinine measurements predict mortality in critically ill patients hospitalized for acute heart failure

Association between the blood urea nitrogen to creatinine ratio and in‑hospital mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction: A retrospective cohort study

The present study aimed to determine the association between the blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and creatinine (Cr) ratio and in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The present retrospective cohort study included adult patients (≥18 years of age) who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with a primary diagnosis of AMI. Medical records were obtained from the electronic ICU collaborative research database, which includes data from throughout continental USA. Data included demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory tests and comorbidities. The clinical endpoint was in-hospital mortality. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the prognostic values of the basic BUN/Cr ratio and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves. Subgroup analyses were performed to measure mortality across various subgroups. In total, 5,965 eligible patients were included. In the Cox regression analysis, after being adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and other confounding factors, the BUN/Cr ratio was found to be a significant risk predictor of in-hospital mortality. There was a non-linear relationship between the BUN/Cr ratio and in-hospital mortality after adjusting for potential confounders. A two-piecewise regression model was used to obtain a threshold inflection point value of 18. Furthermore, after adjusting for additional confounding factors (age, sex, ethnicity, BMI, heart rate, oxygen saturation, platelets, total protein, AMI category, heart failure, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, percutaneous coronary intervention, and administration of norepinephrine, dopamine and epinephrine), the BUN/Cr ratio remained a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (third vs. first tertile: Hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.08-2.09; P<0.05). The Kaplan-Meier curve for tertiles of the BUN/Cr ratio indicated that in-hospital mortality rates were highest when the BUN/Cr ratio was ≥18.34 after adjustment for age, sex and ethnicity (P<0.05). The present findings demonstrated that a higher BUN/Cr ratio was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. These results support a revision of how the prognosis of patients with AMI is predicted.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score in Chinese Patients With Chronic Heart Failure

Background

Acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure contributes to substantial increases in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The study developed a risk score to evaluate the severity of heart failure which was related to the risk of MACE.

Methods

This single-center retrospective observational study included 5,777 patients with heart failure. A credible random split-sample method was used to divide data into training and validation dataset (split ratio = 0.7:0.3). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) logistic regression was applied to select predictors and develop the risk score to predict the severity category of heart failure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration curves were used to assess the model’s discrimination and accuracy.

Results

Body-mass index (BMI), ejection fraction (EF), serum creatinine, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were identified as predictors and assembled into the risk score (P &lt; 0.05), which showed good discrimination with AUC in the training dataset (0.770, 95% CI:0.746–0.794) and validation dataset (0.756, 95% CI:0.717–0.795) and was well calibrated in both datasets (all P &gt; 0.05). As the severity of heart failure worsened according to risk score, the incidence of MACE, length of hospital stay, and treatment cost increased (P &lt; 0.001).

Conclusion

A risk score incorporating BMI, EF, serum creatinine, hemoglobin, CRP, and NLR, was developed and validated. It effectively evaluated individuals’ severity classification of heart failure, closely related to MACE.

Predictive values of blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio and other routine blood parameters on disease severity and survival of COVID-19 patients

We aimed to examine independent predictive factors for the severity and survival of COVID-19 disease, from routine blood parameters, especially the blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine (Cr) ratio. A total of 139 patients with COVID-19 were investigated at Siirt State Hospital. According to the disease severity, the patients were categorized as three groups (moderate: 85, severe: 54, and critical: 20). Then, patients were divided into two groups: nonsevere (moderate) and severe (severe and critical). Demographic, clinical data, and routine blood parameters were analyzed. In multivariate model adjusted for potential confounders BUN/Cr ratio (odds ratio [OR] = 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.40; P = .002) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.20-4.30; P < .001) were independent predictive factors for disease severity. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard model BUN/Cr ratio (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05; P = .030), and NLR (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.06-1.30; P = .020) were independent predictors for survival of COVID-19 disease. The optimal thresholds of the BUN/Cr ratio at 33.5 and 51.7 had the superior possibility for severe disease and mortality, area under the curve (AUC) were 0.98 and 0.95, respectively. The optimal thresholds of NLR at 3.27 and 5.72 had a superior possibility for severe disease and mortality, AUC were 0.87 and 0.85, respectively. BUN/Cr and NLR are independent predictors for COVID-19 patient severity and survival. Routine evaluation of BUN/Cr and NLR can help identify high-risk cases with COVID-19.

Serum creatinine trajectories in real-world hospitalized patients: clinical context and short-term mortality

Fluctuations in serum creatinine (SCr) during hospitalization may provide additional prognostic value beyond baseline renal function. This study aimed to identify groups of patients with distinct creatinine trajectories over hospital stay and assess them in terms of clinical characteristics and short-term mortality. This retrospective study included 35 853 unique adult admissions to a tertiary referral center between January 2012 and January 2016 with at least three SCr measurements within the first 9 days of stay. Individual SCr courses were determined using linear regression or linear-splines model and grouped into clusters. SCr trajectories were described as median SCr courses within clusters. Almost half of the patients presented with changing, mainly declining SCr concentration during hospitalization. In comparison to patients with an increase in SCr, those with a significant decline were younger, more often admitted via the emergency department, more often required a higher level of care, had fewer comorbidities and the more pronounced the fall in SCr, the greater the observed difference. Regardless of baseline renal function, an increase in SCr was related to the highest in-hospital mortality risk among compared clusters. Also, patients with normal renal function at admission followed by decreasing SCr were at higher risk of inpatient death, but lower 90-day postdischarge mortality than patients with a stable SCr. Acute changes in inpatient SCr convey important prognostic information and can only be interpreted by looking at their evolution over time. Recognizing underlying causes and providing adequate care is crucial for improving adverse prognosis.

Predictive value of blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio in the long-term prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated with acute heart failure

At present, the long-term prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after emergency percutaneous coronary intervention is the focus of attention, and relevant research is actively investigating the risk factors associated with prognosis. Poor prognosis often exists in Patients with AMI complicated with acute heart failure (AHF). In recent years, some studies have found that blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) can better predict the prognosis of patients with AHF than single BUN or Cr. The relationship between long-prognosis of patients with AMI, as one of the common causes of AHF, and BUN/Cr is unknown. The main purpose of this study was to determine whether BUN/Cr has a predictive value for long-term prognosis in patients with AMI complicated with AHF.In this study, 389 consecutive patients with AMI were enrolled. According to AHF and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 15.32, the patients were divided into four groups (non-AHF + low BUN/Cr, non-AHF + high BUN/Cr, AHF + low BUN/Cr, and AHF + high BUN/Cr groups). A 1-year follow-up was implemented, and the study endpoint was defined as all-cause mortality. Predictors associated with 1-year mortality were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard analysis, and the Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the survival rates.AHF occurred in 163 patients (41.9%) during hospital admission and 29 patients died during the 1-year follow-up. The Cox proportional hazard analysis proved an association between the combination of AHF and high BUN/Cr and mortality; however, the association with AHF + low BUN/Cr was not statistically significant.AHF combined with elevated BUN/Cr is linked with an increased risk of mortality in patients with AMI, which suggests that BNU/Cr has a predictive value for prognosis in patients with AMI complicated with AHF.

Iron therapy in heart failure patients without anaemia: possible implications for chronic kidney disease patients

Iron deficiency anaemia is a global health problem that manifests as fatigue and poor physical endurance. Anaemia can be caused by dietary iron deficiency, blood loss or a combination of poor iron absorption and ineffective iron mobilization in patients with chronic disease. Nephrologists caring for patients with impaired renal function understand that iron treatment is necessary to provide adequate iron for erythropoiesis during the treatment of overt anaemia. However, a less well-understood health problem is iron deficiency, which creates symptoms that overlap with those of anaemia and often occurs in concert with chronic disease. Recently, several randomized controlled clinical trials have been conducted to investigate the effects of treatment with intravenous iron in heart failure patients with iron deficiency who may or may not also have anaemia. Given that heart and kidney disease are often comorbid, these clinical trials may have implications for the way nephrologists view their patients with iron deficiency. In this article, we review several clinical studies of intravenous iron therapy for patients with iron deficiency and heart failure and discuss possible implications for the treatment of patients with kidney disease.

Baseline serum bicarbonate levels independently predict short-term mortality in critically ill patients with ischaemic cardiogenic shock

BACKGROUND

Cardiogenic shock is a feared complication of acute myocardial infarction with high mortality rates. Data on the predictive role of acid base dysregulation in this clinical setting are sparse. We therefore embarked on investigating the predictive role of serum bicarbonate in critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients with cardiogenic shock.

METHODS

A total of 165 ischaemic cardiogenic shock patients (118 men, aged 68.4 years (interquartile range 59.0-77.4), APACHE II score 26.0 (interquartile range 21.0-29.0), after percutaneous coronary intervention were included in a single-centre analysis. Percutaneous coronary intervention-related data such as left ventricular ejection fraction and laboratory indices were recorded and routine clinical follow-up was obtained at hospital discharge and at one year. All-cause mortality was assessed and data were analysed using univariate and multivariate models.

RESULTS

All-cause mortality was highest (17%) during the first 48 hours following ICU admission (28-day mortality rate 43%). In a multiple regression model, age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.035, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.011-1.059, P=0.004), APACHE II score (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.002-1.072, P=0.037) and baseline serum bicarbonate levels (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.866-0.998, P=0.046) independently predicted 28-day mortality (overall model fit χ² 22.9, P<0.0001). The HR for patients in the lowest baseline serum bicarbonate tertile for 365-day mortality was HR 2.06 (95% CI 1.20-3.53).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large cohort of consecutive cardiogenic shock patients hospitalised in the ICU, low serum bicarbonate levels at admission independently predicted mortality. Given the widespread availability of blood gas analysers in ICUs, we propose baseline serum bicarbonate levels as an additional biomarker for identification and stratification of cardiogenic shock patients at risk.

Lack of evidence of lower 30-day all-cause readmission in Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction discharged on spironolactone

BACKGROUND

Therapy with evidence-based heart failure (HF) medications has been shown to be associated with lower risk of 30-day all-cause readmission in patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS

We examined the association of aldosterone antagonist use with 30-day all-cause readmission in this population. Of the 2443 Medicare beneficiaries with HF and left ventricular EF ≤35% discharged home from 106 Alabama hospitals during 1998-2001, 2060 were eligible for spironolactone therapy (serum creatinine ≤2.5 for men and ≤2mg/dl for women, and serum potassium <5mEq/L). After excluding 186 patients already receiving spironolactone on admission, the inception cohort consisted of 1874 patients eligible for a new discharge prescription for spironolactone, of which 329 received one. Using propensity scores for initiation of spironolactone therapy, we assembled a matched cohort of 324 pairs of patients receiving and not receiving spironolactone balanced on 34 baseline characteristics (mean age 72years, 42% women, 33% African American).

RESULTS

Thirty-day all-cause readmission occurred in 17% and 19% of matched patients receiving and not receiving spironolactone, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-1.32; p=0.650). Spironolactone had no association with 30-day all-cause mortality (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.38-1.88; p=0.678) or HF readmission (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.41 1.31; p=0.301). These associations remained unchanged during 12months of post-discharge follow-up.

CONCLUSION

A discharge prescription for spironolactone had no association with 30-day all-cause readmission among older, hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries with HFrEF eligible for spironolactone therapy.

Single baseline serum creatinine measurements predict mortality in critically ill patients hospitalized for acute heart failure

Background

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of death in critically ill patients and is often accompanied by significant renal dysfunction. Few data exist on the predictive value of measures of renal dysfunction in large cohorts of patients hospitalized for AHF.

Methods

Six hundred and eighteen patients hospitalized for AHF (300 male, aged 73.3 ± 10.3 years, 73% New York Heart Association Class 4, mean hospital length of stay 12.9 ± 7.7 days, 97% non‐ischaemic AHF) were included in a retrospective single‐centre data analysis. Echocardiographic data, serum creatinine/urea levels, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and clinical/laboratory markers were recorded. Mean follow‐up time was 2.9 ± 2.1 years. All‐cause mortality was recorded, and univariate/multivariate analyses were performed.

Results

Normal renal function defined as eGFR > 90 mL/min/1.73 m² was noted in only 3% of AHF patients at baseline. A significant correlation of left ventricular ejection fraction with serum creatinine levels and eGFR (all P < 0.002) was noted. All‐cause mortality rates were 12% (90 days) and 40% (at 2 years), respectively. In a multivariate model, increased age, higher New York Heart Association class at admission, higher total cholesterol levels, and lower eGFR independently predicted death. Patients with baseline eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² had an exceptionally high risk of death (odds ratio 2.80, 95% confidence interval 1.52–5.15, P = 0.001).

Conclusions

In a large cohort of patients with mostly non‐ischaemic AHF, enhanced serum creatinine levels and reduced eGFR independently predict death. It appears that patients with eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² have poorest survival rates. Our data add to mounting data indicating that impaired renal function is an important risk factor for non‐survival in patients hospitalized for AHF.