Landmarks in hepatology. Au Conntraire, professeur Pasteur!

A Historical Overview of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: From Rare to Resistant

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Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials

PURPOSE

The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline) information.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results.

RESULTS

Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy's law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests.

CONCLUSION

It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline) data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones.

Nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain containing 2 (NOD2) variants are genetic risk factors for death and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in liver cirrhosis

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), a severe complication in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis, has been attributed to bacterial translocation from the intestine. Variants of the NOD2 (nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain containing 2) gene have been associated with impaired mucosal barrier function in Crohn disease. We hypothesized that the risk of acquiring SBP is increased in patients with cirrhosis carrying NOD2 variants. We recruited 150 nonselected patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites admitted to our unit, monitored survival, and recorded the development of SBP prospectively and retrospectively. SBP was defined as the presence of polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) cells >250 per microL of ascitic fluid. Patients were genotyped for the NOD2 variants p.R702W, p.G908R, and c.3020insC. During a median follow-up of 155 days, 54 patients (36%) died and SBP was diagnosed in 30 patients (20%). The occurrence of SBP was increased significantly (P = 0.008) in carriers of NOD2 variants (odds ratio [OR] = 3.06). Retrospectively, SBP was observed in 22 additional patients, and the combined prospective and retrospective analysis substantiated the association between NOD2 and SBP (P = 0.004; OR = 2.98). Of note, carriers of NOD2 risk alleles showed a significantly (P = 0.007) reduced mean survival time (274 days) in comparison to patients with wildtype genotypes (395 days).

CONCLUSION

Common NOD2 variants linked previously to impaired mucosal barrier function may be genetic risk factors for death and SBP. These findings might serve to identify patients with cirrhotic ascites eligible for preemptive antibiotic treatment.