Modeling the benefits and harms of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: Information to support informed choices

Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Successfully Treated Viral Disease of the Liver: A Systematic Review

Background

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been proven to increase the proportion of tumors detected at early stages and the chance of receiving curative therapies, reducing mortality by about 30%.

Summary

Current recommendations consist of a semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein measurement in patients with cirrhosis and specific subgroups of populations with chronic viral hepatitis. Antiviral therapies, such as nucleot(s)ide analogs that efficiently suppress the replication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and direct-acting antiviral drugs able to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in >90% of patients, have radically changed the outcomes of viral liver disease and decreased, but not eliminated, the risk of HCC in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients. HCC risk is a key starting point for implementing a cost-effective surveillance and should also guide the decision-making process concerning its modality. As the global number of effectively treated viral patients continues to rise, there is a pressing need to identify those for whom the benefit-to-harm ratio of surveillance is favorable and to determine how to conduct cost-effective screening on such patients.

Key Messages

This article addresses this topic and attempts to determine which patients should continue HCC surveillance after HBV suppression or HCV eradication, based on cost-effectiveness principles and the fact that HCC risk declines over time. We also formulate a proposal for a surveillance algorithm that switches the use of surveillance for HCC from the "one-size-fits-all" approach to individualized programs based on oncologic risk (precision surveillance).

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults

Deaths from the majority of cancers are falling globally, but the incidence and mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the United Kingdom and in other Western countries. HCC is a highly fatal cancer, often diagnosed late, with an incidence to mortality ratio that approaches 1. Despite there being a number of treatment options, including those associated with good medium to long-term survival, 5-year survival from HCC in the UK remains below 20%. Sex, ethnicity and deprivation are important demographics for the incidence of, and/or survival from, HCC. These clinical practice guidelines will provide evidence-based advice for the assessment and management of patients with HCC. The clinical and scientific data underpinning the recommendations we make are summarised in detail. Much of the content will have broad relevance, but the treatment algorithms are based on therapies that are available in the UK and have regulatory approval for use in the National Health Service.

Natural history of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), which has been the term for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) since June 2023, represents the most common liver disease worldwide and is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality. A thorough knowledge of the disease's natural history is required to promptly stratify patients' risks, since MASLD is a multifaceted disorder with a broad range of clinical phenotypes. The histological disease spectrum ranges from isolated hepatic steatosis, currently named as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver (MASL), to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and eventually may accumulate hepatic fibrosis and develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Several risk factors for fibrosis progression have been identified, while the disease's progression displays notable dynamism and bidirectionality. When compared to the general population, all MASLD histological stages are substantially related with greater overall mortality, and this association exhibits a disease severity-dependent pattern. Interestingly, the fibrosis stage is the most accurate predictor of mortality among MASLD patients. The mortality attributed to MASLD predominantly stems from issues linked with the liver and cardiovascular system, as well as HCC and extrahepatic cancers. In light of the disease natural course, it is crucial to prioritize the identification of at-risk patients for disease progression in order to effectively address and change modifiable risk factors, hence mitigating disease complications. Further investigation is required to define the phenotype of rapid progressors more precisely as well as to improve risk stratification for HCC in non-cirrhotic individuals.

Screening of liver cancer with abbreviated MRI

Current recommendations for the surveillance of HCC are based on the semiannual liver ultrasound (with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein) in patients with cirrhosis and in subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, the sensitivity of this strategy is suboptimal for the detection of early-stage tumors, especially in obese patients, due to interoperator variability and poor adherence. The detection rate of focal liver lesions is excellent with MRI, making it the best alternative candidate for surveillance. However, performing a full contrast-enhanced MRI is unrealistic because of limited availability and health economics. Abbreviated MRI (AMRI) corresponds to the acquisition of a limited number of sequences with a high detection rate. The theoretical benefits of AMRI are a reduced acquisition time (≤10 min) with improved time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness compared with conventional MRI, and greater accuracy than ultrasound. Numerous protocols may be performed, including T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and DWI sequences, with or without contrast administration. Although published studies report promising per-patient results, they should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, most studies were simulated, retrospectively reviewing a subset of sequences in relatively small populations who underwent a full MRI. They also included groups that were not representative of screening populations. In addition, most were published by Asian groups, with at-risk populations that were different from Western populations. There are no existing longitudinal studies that directly compare the different AMRI approaches or AMRI to ultrasound. Finally, it is possible that 1 approach will not fit all patients and that strategies should be tailored to the risk of HCC, in particular in relation to the cost and availability of AMRI. Several trials are ongoing to evaluate these questions.

Delivery of biannual ultrasound surveillance for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C in the UK

BACKGROUND

Previous studies show the uptake of biannual ultrasound (US) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is suboptimal. Here, our goal was to understand in broader terms how surveillance is being delivered to cirrhosis patients with cured hepatitis C in the UK.

METHODS

Hepatitis C cirrhosis patients achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) to antiviral therapies were identified from the national Hepatitis-C-Research-UK resource. Data on (i) liver/abdominal US examinations, (ii) HCC diagnoses, and (iii) HCC curative treatment were obtained through record-linkage to national health registries. The rate of US uptake was calculated by dividing the number of US episodes by follow-up time.

RESULTS

A total of 1908 cirrhosis patients from 31 liver centres were followed for 3.8 (IQR: 3.4-4.9) years. Overall, 10 396 liver/abdominal USs were identified. The proportion with biannual US was 19% in the first 3 years after SVR and 9% for all follow-up years. Higher uptake of biannual US was associated with attending a liver transplant centre; older age and cirrhosis decompensation. Funnel plot analysis indicated significant inter-centre variability in biannual US uptake, with 6/29 centres outside control limits. Incident HCC occurred in 133 patients, of which 49/133 (37%) were treated with curative intent. The number of US episodes in the two years prior to HCC diagnosis was significantly associated with higher odds of curative-intent treatment (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.12-2,09; p = .007).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides novel data on the cascade of care for HCC in the UK. Our findings suggest biannual US is poorly targeted, inefficient and is not being delivered equitably to all patients.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm

AIMS

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata.

METHODS

Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging).

RESULTS

22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38).

CONCLUSION

Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

Posttransplant Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: A Cost-effectiveness and Cost-utility Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Assess cost-effectiveness and -utility associated with posttransplant HCC surveillance compared to standard follow-up.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Despite lack of prospective clinical data, expert consensus recommends posttransplant surveillance to detect HCC recurrence in a latent phase, while it might be amenable to curative-intent therapy.

METHODS

A Markov-based transition model was created to estimate life expectancy and quality-of-life among liver transplant patients undergoing HCC surveillance. Models were built for 2 cohorts: 1 undergoing HCC surveillance with contrast-enhanced computed tomography of chest and abdomen and serum alpha-fetoprotein analysis and the other receiving standard posttransplant follow-up. Primary model outputs included LY and QALY gains, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and incremental cost-utility ratio. Willingness-to-pay for a QALY gain (cost-effectiveness threshold) was used to estimate efficiency.

RESULTS

Surveillance was marginally more effective versus no surveillance, resulting in means of 0.069 LYs and 0.026 QALYs gained. Costs for surveillance were increased by an average of 988.32€, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio 14,410.15€/LY and incremental cost-utility ratio 37,547.97€/QALY. Surveillance did not seem cost-effective in our setting, considering willingness-to-pay threshold of 25,000€/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated surveillance might be cost-effective in 42% of cases, but degree of uncertainty in the analysis was high.

CONCLUSIONS

Performing posttransplant HCC surveillance offers marginal clinical benefits and increases costs. Although expert consensus supports surveillance, results of this decision analysis raise doubt regarding the utility of such recommendations and support ongoing need for prospective clinical trials.

HCC surveillance improves early detection, curative treatment receipt, and survival in patients with cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is controversy regarding the overall value of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis given the lack of data from randomized-controlled trials. To address this issue, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies evaluating the benefits and harms of HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a search of the Medline and EMBASE databases and national meeting abstracts from January 2014 through July 2020 for studies reporting early-stage HCC detection, curative treatment receipt, or overall survival, stratified by HCC surveillance status, among patients with cirrhosis. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) and hazard ratios, according to HCC surveillance status, were calculated for each outcome using the DerSimonian and Laird method for random effects models.

RESULTS

We identified 59 studies including 145,396 patients with HCC, which was detected by surveillance in 41,052 (28.2%) cases. HCC surveillance was associated with improved early-stage detection (RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.73-1.98; I2 = 82%), curative treatment receipt (RR 1.83, 95% CI 1.69-1.97; I2 = 75%), and overall survival (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.61-0.72; I2 = 78%) after adjusting for lead-time bias; however, there was notable heterogeneity in all pooled estimates. Four studies examined surveillance-related physical harms due to false positive or indeterminate surveillance results, but no studies examined potential financial or psychological harms. The proportion of patients experiencing surveillance-related physical harms ranged from 8.8% to 27.5% across studies, although most harms were mild in severity.

CONCLUSION

HCC surveillance is associated with improved early detection, curative treatment receipt, and survival in patients with cirrhosis, although there was heterogeneity in pooled estimates. Available data suggest HCC surveillance is of high value in patients with cirrhosis, although continued rigorous studies evaluating benefits and harms are still needed.

LAY SUMMARY

There has been ongoing debate about the overall value of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis given the lack of data from randomized-controlled trials. In a systematic review of contemporary cohort studies, we found that HCC screening is associated with improved early detection, curative treatment receipt, and survival in patients with cirrhosis, although there were fewer data quantifying potential screening-related harms. Available data suggest HCC screening is of high value in patients with cirrhosis, although continued studies evaluating benefits and harms are still needed.

Overdiagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: Prevented by guidelines?

Overdiagnosis refers to detection of disease that would not otherwise become clinically apparent during a patient's lifetime. Overdiagnosis is common and has been reported for several cancer types, although there are few studies describing its prevalence in HCC surveillance programs. Overdiagnosis can have serious negative consequences including overtreatment and associated complications, financial toxicity, and psychological harms related to being labeled with a cancer diagnosis. Overdiagnosis can occur for several different reasons including inaccurate diagnostic criteria, detection of premalignant or very early malignant lesions, detection of indolent tumors, and competing risks of mortality. The risk of overdiagnosis is partly mitigated, albeit not eliminated, by several guideline recommendations, including definitions for the at-risk population in whom surveillance should be performed, surveillance modalities, surveillance interval, recall procedures, and HCC diagnostic criteria. Continued research is needed to further characterize the burden and trends of overdiagnosis as well as identify strategies to reduce overdiagnosis in the future.

The burden of primary liver cancer caused by specific etiologies from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels

Background

Liver cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide. We aimed to report the burden of liver cancer at the global, regional, and national levels in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019, stratified by etiology, sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

Methods

Data of mortality, incidence, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of liver cancer and its etiology were available from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2019. The trends in the liver cancer burden were assessed by the annual percentage change. All estimates are presented as numbers and age‐standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

Globally, 484,577 (95% UI 444,091–525,798) mortalities, 534,364 (486,550–588,639) incident cases, and 12,528,422 (11,400,671–13,687,675) disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) due to liver cancer occurred in 2019. The ASRs were 5.95 (5.44–6.44), 6.51 (5.95–7.16), and 151.08 (137.53–164.8) per 100,000 population for the mortalities, incidences, and DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the numbers increased, whereas the ASRs decreased. Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C are the major causes of liver cancer mortality. The liver cancer mortality in 2019 increased with age, peaking at 65–69 and 70–74 age group in males and females, respectively, and the number was higher in males than in females. Generally, there were nonlinear associations between the ASR and SDIs values at the regional and national levels. China had the highest numbers of mortalities, incident cases, and DALYs, whereas Mongolia has the highest ASR in 2019.

Conclusion

Liver cancer remains a major public health issue worldwide, but etiological and geographical variations exist. It is necessary to increase awareness of the population regarding liver cancer, its etiologies and the importance of early detection, and diagnosis and treatment.

Benefits and Harms of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in a Prospective Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The value of a cancer screening programs is defined by its balance of benefits and harms; however, there are few data evaluating both attributes for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance. We aimed to characterize benefits and harms of HCC surveillance in a large prospective cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of a clinical trial evaluating HCC surveillance among patients with cirrhosis at a safety-net health system enrolled between December 2014 and July 2015. We quantified surveillance-related benefits, defined as early HCC detection and curative treatment receipt, and physical harms, defined as diagnostic procedures for false positive or indeterminate results, over an 18-month period.

RESULTS

Of 614 cirrhosis patients with ≥1 surveillance exam, abnormal results were observed in 118 (19.2%) patients. Twenty-six patients developed HCC during follow-up, of whom 16 (61.5%) were detected by surveillance. The proportion of HCC detected at BCLC stage 0/A (62.5% vs 50%, p = .69) and who underwent curative treatment (43.8% vs. 40.0%, p = 1.0) did not significantly differ between surveillance-detected patients and those diagnosed incidentally/symptomatically. Physical harms were observed in 54 (8.8%) patients who underwent surveillance - most of mild severity with only 1 diagnostic CT or MRI and none undergoing invasive testing such as biopsy. Incidental findings on follow-up imaging were found in 40 (6.5%) patients -23 of low clinical importance and 17 medium clinical importance.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort of patients with cirrhosis, HCC surveillance was associated with high early tumor detection and minimal physical harms.

HCC surveillance after SVR in patients with F3/F4 fibrosis

HCV eradication by antiviral treatment reduces but does not eliminate HCC risk. Patients with established cirrhosis require HCC surveillance "indefinitely" after sustained virologic response (SVR) because they appear to have a high risk of HCC even many years after SVR. Patients without established or known cirrhosis may still require surveillance after SVR if they have a sufficiently high HCC risk. In all patients who achieve SVR, the key question is how we can reliably estimate HCC risk, and the change in HCC risk over time, to determine whether the patient might benefit from HCC surveillance. HCC risk is one of the most important factors that should inform decisions of whether and how to screen for HCC. Promising strategies for estimating HCC risk include simplified scoring systems (such as fibrosis-4), liver elastography and multivariable HCC risk calculators. Such tools may enable risk stratification and individualised, risk-based surveillance strategies ("precision HCC screening") in the future.

Economic Implications of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance and Treatment: A Guide for Clinicians

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing worldwide, with significant morbidity and associated costs. Treatment allocation depends on the stage of diagnosis; however, resource utilization can be significant across all stages. We aimed to summarize the available data on the cost effectiveness of surveillance of and treatments for HCC in the context of current treatment guidelines. We performed a focused review of studies investigating the economic burden and cost effectiveness of HCC surveillance treatment modalities published between January 2000 and January 2019. The overall economic burden of HCC is increasing in the USA and in several countries worldwide due to its rising incidence and the proliferation of therapies. Liver transplantation is a cost-effective strategy for early-stage HCC treatment in selected patients. In settings where liver transplantation is not available or in patients awaiting transplant, ablative or locoregional therapies are cost effective with increases in quality-adjusted life-years. First-line therapy with sorafenib for advanced stage HCC is cost effective in the treatment of compensated cirrhosis. The cost effectiveness of recently approved systemic therapies for advanced HCC require further investigation. Existing studies have shown that guideline-recommended surveillance techniques and several available therapies for the treatment of HCC are cost effective; however, there are limitations in the literature, including reliance on suboptimal modeling with incomplete/simplified model structure or inadequate inputs. With increasing therapeutic options in patients with HCC, understanding their relative value is critical in designing HCC treatment algorithms.

Harms of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance

Purpose of review

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is associated with decreased mortality by enabling early tumor detection. However, the benefits of any cancer screening program must be considered in light of potential physical, financial, and psychological harms, as well as the risk of overdiagnosis. Herein, we summarize the potential harms of HCC surveillance.

Recent findings

To date, two retrospective studies have addressed physical harms of HCC surveillance. Based on these data, 15% to 28% of patients undergoing HCC surveillance experience physical harm including additional cross-sectional imaging or liver biopsy. Although psychological and financial harms have been reported for other cancers, there are currently limited data specific to HCC. An ongoing multi-center prospective study assessing all four types of harms should provide data in near future.

Summary

HCC screening may prevent death by diagnosing tumors at an early stage, but limited sensitivity and specificity of screening tests can result in unintended harms. There is a need for further quality data evaluating both the benefits and harms of HCC surveillance.

Cost Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance After a Sustained Virologic Response to Therapy in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Advanced Fibrosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis increases the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). After a sustained virologic response (SVR) to anti-HCV therapy, the risk of HCC is reduced but not eliminated. Recent developments in antiviral therapy have increased rates of SVR markedly. Guidelines recommend indefinite biannual ultrasound surveillance after SVR for patients with advanced fibrosis before treatment. Surveillance for HCC is cost effective before anti-HCV treatment; we investigated whether it remains so after SVR.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost effectiveness of biannual or annual HCC ultrasound surveillance vs no surveillance in 50-year-old patients with advanced fibrosis after an SVR to anti-HCV therapy. Parameter values were obtained from publications and expert opinions. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

With a constant 0.5% annual incidence of HCC, biannual and annual surveillance resulted in ICERs of $106,792 and $72,105 per QALY, respectively, with high false-positive rates. When surveillance was limited to patients with cirrhosis, but not F3 fibrosis, biannual surveillance likely was cost effective, with ICERs of $48,729 and $43,229 per QALY after treatment with interferon and direct-acting antiviral agents, respectively. In patients with F3 fibrosis, the incidence of HCC was 0.3% to 0.4% per year, leading to an ICER of $188,157 per QALY for biannual surveillance. If HCC incidence increases with age, surveillance becomes more cost effective but remains below willingness-to-pay thresholds only for patients with cirrhosis or with pretreatment aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index greater than 2.0 or FIB-4 measurements greater than 3.25. Sensitivity analyses identified HCC incidence and transition rate to symptomatic disease without surveillance as factors that affect cost effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

In a Markov model, we found HCC surveillance after an SVR to HCV treatment to be cost effective for patients with cirrhosis, but not for patients with F3 fibrosis.

From NASH to HCC: current concepts and future challenges

Caloric excess and sedentary lifestyle have led to a global epidemic of obesity and metabolic syndrome. The hepatic consequence of metabolic syndrome and obesity, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is estimated to affect up to one-third of the adult population in many developed and developing countries. This spectrum of liver disease ranges from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and cirrhosis. Owing to the high prevalence of NAFLD, especially in industrialized countries but also worldwide, and the consequent burden of progressive liver disease, there is mounting epidemiological evidence that NAFLD has rapidly become a leading aetiology underlying many cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this Review, we discuss NAFLD-associated HCC, including its epidemiology, the key features of the hepatic NAFLD microenvironment (for instance, adaptive and innate immune responses) that promote hepatocarcinogenesis and the management of HCC in patients with obesity and associated metabolic comorbidities. The challenges and future directions of research will also be discussed, including clinically relevant biomarkers for early detection, treatment stratification and monitoring as well as approaches to therapies for both prevention and treatment in those at risk or presenting with NAFLD-associated HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in the 21st century: Saving lives or causing harm?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer related death worldwide. Prognosis and treatment options largely depend on tumor stage at diagnosis, with curative treatments only available if detected at an early stage. However, two thirds of patients with HCC are diagnosed at a late stage and not eligible for cure. Therefore several liver professional societies recommend HCC surveillance using abdominal ultrasound with or without alpha fetoprotein in at-risk populations, including patients with cirrhosis and subsets of those with chronic hepatitis B. Available data suggest HCC surveillance can significantly improve early tumor detection, curative treatment eligibility, and overall survival. However, the potential benefits of HCC surveillance must be considered in light a shifting HCC demographic from a viral-mediated cancer to an increasing proportion of patients having non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, which has been shown to limit ultrasound sensitivity and may mitigate observed benefits. Further, benefits of HCC surveillance must be weighed against potential physical, financial and psychological harms. Continued data for both benefits and harms of HCC surveillance in contemporary populations are necessary. In the interim, providers should continue to strive for high quality HCC surveillance in at-risk patients.

Primary Care Provider Practice Patterns and Barriers to Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Low rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance are primarily due to provider-related process failures. However, few studies have evaluated primary care provider (PCP) practice patterns, attitudes, and barriers to HCC surveillance at academic tertiary care referral centers.

METHODS

We conducted a web-based survey of PCPs at 2 tertiary care referral centers (133 providers) from June 2017 through December 2017. The survey was adapted from pretested surveys and included questions about practice patterns, attitudes, and barriers to HCC surveillance. We used the Fisher exact and Mann-Whitney rank-sum tests to identify factors associated with adherence to HCC surveillance recommendations, for categoric and continuous variables, respectively.

RESULTS

We obtained a provider-level response rate of 75% and clinic-level response rate of 100% (133 providers). Whereas most PCPs performed HCC surveillance themselves, one-third deferred surveillance to subspecialists and referred patients to a hepatology clinic. Providers believed the combination of ultrasound and α-fetoprotein analysis to be highly effective for early stage tumor detection and reported using the combination for assessment of most patients. However, PCPs were more likely to use computed tomography- or magnetic resonance imaging-based surveillance for patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or decompensated cirrhosis. Most providers believed HCC surveillance to be efficacious for early tumor detection and increasing survival. However, they desired increased high-quality evidence to characterize screening benefits and harms. Providers expressed notable misconceptions about HCC surveillance, including the role for measurement of liver enzyme levels in HCC surveillance and cost effectiveness of surveillance in patients without cirrhosis. They also reported barriers, including not being up to date on HCC surveillance recommendations, limited time in the clinic, and competing clinical concerns.

CONCLUSIONS

In a web-based survey, PCPs reported misconceptions and barriers to HCC surveillance. This indicates the need for interventions, including provider education, to improve HCC surveillance effectiveness in clinical practice.

Frequency and Outcomes of Abnormal Imaging in Patients With Cirrhosis Enrolled in a Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Program

There are limited data on the downstream effects of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance, including the frequency of false-positive results. We aimed to quantify the incidence of indeterminate nodules (INs) and the follow-up testing needed to resolve these findings among patients enrolled in a structured HCC surveillance program. We retrospectively analyzed adult patients with cirrhosis enrolled in a structured HCC surveillance program in a large tertiary care center. Outcomes included surveillance benefits, defined as early HCC detection, and harm, defined as INs prompting additional diagnostic evaluation. Among 999 patients followed for a median of 2.2 years, HCC surveillance imaging was consistently completed every 6, 9, and 12 months in 46%, 51%, and 68% of patients, respectively. Of 256 (25.6%) patients with abnormal imaging, 69 (27.0%) were diagnosed with HCC and 187 (73.0%) with INs. Most HCC (n = 54, 78.3%) were found within Milan criteria. Among those with an IN, 78.1% returned to ultrasound surveillance after a median of 2 (interquartile range [IQR], 1-3) negative computed tomography (CT)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, and 21.9% continued CT/MRI imaging (median, 1; IQR, 1-2). Eleven patients underwent diagnostic liver biopsy. Hypoalbuminemia, thrombocytopenia, and larger nodule size were independently associated with HCC diagnosis. In conclusion, 1 in 4 patients enrolled in an HCC surveillance program had abnormal surveillance imaging, but three-fourths of the lesions were INs, resulting in downstream harm. Improved risk-stratification tools are needed to identify nodules that are benign to reduce follow-up diagnostic evaluation.

Upregulated MMP28 in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Promotes Metastasis via Notch3 Signaling and Predicts Unfavorable Prognosis

MMP28 belongs to the matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) family and functions in tissue homeostasis and development. Although many other MMPs have been reported to regulate tumor progression, the roles of MMP28 in cancer remain largely elusive. In this study, we investigated the potential roles of MMP28 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The upregulation of MMP28 was first determined by the analysis on different public datasets. Further quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) analysis, western blot (WB) assay and immunohistochemistry (IHC) assay on tumor and tumor-adjacent samples from HCC patients confirmed the aberrant elevation of MMP28 in HCC. Pathological analysis showed that increased MMP28 was associated with tumor size, vascular invasion, TNM stage and overall survival in HCC patients. Meanwhile, upregulated MMP28 was identified as an independent prognosis factor in multivariate analysis, and the incorporation of MMP28 expression with TNM staging system established a novel model to improve the accuracy of the predictions. In vivo and in vitro data revealed that MMP28 promoted migration and invasion of HCC cells, and enhanced epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) via elevating zinc finger E-box binding homeobox (ZEB) homologues levels. Furthermore, we determined that Notch3 signaling was critical for the functions of MMP28 in HCC. In conclusion, upregulated MMP28 in HCC promoted migration and invasion and predicted poor prognosis for HCC patients, and the effects of MMP28 depended on Notch3 signaling.

Surveillance for hepatocellular cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common complication of cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC is rising and HCC-related mortality is rising in parallel such that there were more than 1,700 deaths in the UK in 2015. Since cirrhosis is a known risk factor for the development of HCC and early diagnosis is associated with improved outcomes, surveillance for the development of HCC using regular ultrasound scans is recommended by many expert bodies including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). This surveillance is not supported by high-quality evidence and there is an increasing appreciation of the associated harms. In this review the likely benefits of surveillance are discussed together with recommendations to increase the effectiveness of surveillance overall.

Serum exosomal microRNAs combined with alpha-fetoprotein as diagnostic markers of hepatocellular carcinoma

Exosomal microRNAs have recently been studied as the potential diagnostic marker for various malignancies, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to investigate serum exosomal microRNA profiles as HCC diagnostic marker. Transmission electron microscopy and Western blot were used to identify serum exosomes. Deep sequencing was performed to screen differentially expressed microRNAs between HCC (n = 5) and liver cirrhosis (LC, n = 5) groups. Three upregulated and two downregulated microRNAs were selected for qPCR analysis. The levels of selected microRNAs were normalized to Caenorhabditis elegans miR-39 microRNA mimics. Serum exosomal level of miR-122, miR-148a, and miR-1246 was further analyzed and significantly higher in HCC than LC and normal control (NC) groups (P < 0.001), but not different from chronic hepatitis group (P > 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of candidate microRNAs. Area under the curve (AUC) of miR-148a was 0.891 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.809-0.947] in discriminating HCC from LC, remarkably higher than alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (AUC: 0.712, 95% CI: 0.607-0.803). Binary logistic regression was adopted to establish the diagnostic model for discriminating HCC from LC. And the combination of miR-122, miR-148a, and AFP increased the AUC to 0.931 (95% CI, 0.857-0.973), which can also be applied for distinguishing early HCC from LC. miR-122 was the best for differentiating HCC from NC (AUC: 0.990, 95% CI, 0.945-1.000). These data suggest that serum exosomal microRNAs signature or their combination with traditional biomarker may be used as a suitable peripheral screening tool for HCC.

Overdiagnosis: An Understudied Issue in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance

Overdiagnosis, the detection of clinically insignificant disease that would not otherwise impact the patient's lifespan, is a phenomenon that has been described in several solid tumors, such as prostate, breast, thyroid, and lung cancers. Population-based efforts to reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality in cirrhosis patients by screening and early detection may result in the overdiagnosis of HCC. One of the harms of overdiagnosis is subsequent overtreatment, which can result in increased costs, as well as physical side effects, psychological harms, and poorer quality of life. In this review, the authors explore the potential for overdiagnosis in HCC.