Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.

COVID-19 vaccines in patients with decompensated cirrhosis: a retrospective cohort on safety data and risk factors associated with unvaccinated status

Background

Safety data reported from the large-scale clinical trials of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine are extremely limited in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The vaccination campaign in this specific population could be difficult due to uncertainty about the adverse events following vaccination. We aimed to assessed the COVID-19 vaccination rate, factors associated with unvaccinated status, and the adverse events following vaccination in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Methods

This is a retrospective study from Ruijin Hospial (Shanghai, China) on an ongoing prospective cohort designed for long-term survival analysis of decompensated cirrhotic patients who recovered from decompensating events or acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) between 2016 and 2018. We assessed the COVID-19 vaccination rate, the number of doses, type of vaccine, safety data, patient-reported reasons for remaining unvaccinated, factors associated with unvaccinated status, and the adverse events of COVID-19 vaccine. Binary logistic regression was used for identifying factors associated with unvaccinated status.

Results

A total of 229 patients with decompensated cirrhosis without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection participated (mean age, 56 ± 12.2 years, 75% male, 65% viral-related cirrhosis). Mode of decompensation were grade II‒III ascites (82.5%), gastroesophageal varices bleeding (7.9%), hepatic encephalopathy (7.9%). Eighty-five participants (37.1%) received at least one dose of vaccination (1 dose: n = 1, 2 doses: n = 65, 3 doses: n = 19) while 62.9% remained unvaccinated. Patient-reported reasons for remaining unvaccinated were mainly fear of adverse events (37.5%) and lack of positive advice from healthcare providers (52.1%). The experience of hepatic encephalopathy (OR = 5.61, 95% CI: 1.24–25.4) or ACLF (OR = 3.13, 95% CI: 1.12–8.69) and post-liver transplantation status (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.06–5.76) were risk factors of remaining unvaccinated independent of residential areas. The safety analysis demonstrated that 75.3% had no adverse events, 23.6% had non-severe reactions (20% injection-site pain, 1.2% fatigue, 2.4% rash) and 1.2% had a severe event (development of acute decompensation requiring hospitalization).

Conclusions

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis in eastern China are largely remained at unvaccinated status, particularly those with previous episodes of ACLF or hepatic encephalopathy and liver transplantation recipients. Vaccination against COVID-19 in this population is safe.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00982-0.