Trends in lung cancer incidence by gender, histological type and stage at diagnosis in Japan, 1993-2015: A multiple imputation approach

Plasma GPI and PGD are associated with vascular normalization and may serve as novel prognostic biomarkers for lung adenocarcinoma: Multi-omics and multi-dimensional analysis

The aim of this study was to explore potential novel plasma protein biomarkers for lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). A plasma proteomics analysis was carried out and candidate protein biomarkers were validated in 102 LUAD cases and 102 matched healthy controls. The same LUAD tumor tissues were detected to explore the correlation between the expression of candidate proteins in tissues and plasma and vascular normalization. A LUAD active metastasis mice model was constructed to explore the role of candidate proteins for lung metastasis. GPI and PGD were verified to be upregulated in plasma from LUAD patients, and the expression of GPI in tumor tissue was positively correlated with the expression of GPI in plasma and negatively correlated with the normalization of tumor blood vessels. Meanwhile, a negative correlation between the expression of GPI and PGD in plasma and tumor vascular normalization was discovered. In the LUAD active metastasis model, the lowest levels of vascular normalization and the highest expression of GPI and PGD were found in mice with lung metastases. This study found that GPI and PGD may be potential plasma biomarkers for LUAD, and monitoring those may infer the risk of metastasis and malignancy of the tumor. SIGNIFICANT: We identified GPI and PGD as potential novel diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for LUAD. PGD and GPI can be used as diagnostic biomarkers in combination with other available strategies to assist in the screening and diagnosis of LUAD, and as prognostic biomarkers aid in predict the risk of tumor metastasis and malignancy in patients with LUAD.

Impact of annual trend volume of low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer screening on overdiagnosis, overmanagement, and gender disparities

BACKGROUND

With the increasing prevalence of nonsmoking-related lung cancer in Asia, Asian countries have increasingly adopted low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer screening, particularly in private screening programs. This study examined how annual LDCT volume affects lung cancer stage distribution, overdiagnosis, and gender disparities using a hospital-based lung cancer database.

METHODS

This study analyzed the annual utilized LDCT volume, clinical characteristics of lung cancer, stage shift distribution, and potential overdiagnosis. At the individual level, this study also investigated the relationship between stage 0 lung cancer (potential strict definition regarding overdiagnosis) and the clinical characteristics of lung cancer.

RESULTS

This study reviewed the annual trend of 4971 confirmed lung cancer cases from 2008 to 2021 and conducted a link analysis with an LDCT imaging examination database over these years. As the volume of lung cancer screenings has increased over the years, the number and proportion of stage 0 lung cancers have increased proportionally. Our study revealed that the incidence of stage 0 lung cancer increased with increasing LDCT scan volume, particularly during the peak growth period from 2017 to 2020. Conversely, stage 4 lung cancer cases remained consistent across different time intervals. Furthermore, the increase in the lung cancer screening volume had a more pronounced effect on the increase in stage 0 lung cancer cases among females than it had among males. The estimated potential for overdiagnosis brought about by the screening process, compared to non-participating individuals, ranged from an odds ratio of 7.617 to one of 17.114. Both strict and lenient definitions of overdiagnosis (evaluating cases of stage 0 lung cancer and stages 0 to 1 lung cancer) were employed.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide population-level evidence of potential lung cancer overdiagnosis in the Taiwanese population due to the growing use of LDCT screening, particularly concerning the strict definition of stage 0 lung cancer. The impact was greater in the female population than in the male population, especially among females younger than 40 years. To improve lung cancer screening in Asian populations, creating risk-based prediction models for smokers and nonsmokers, along with gender-specific strategies, is vital for ensuring survival benefits and minimizing overdiagnosis.

Changing smoking habits and the occurrence of lung cancer in Sweden-a population analysis

BACKGROUND

The objective is to estimate the importance of the decrease of smoking habits in Sweden for the occurrence of lung cancer.

METHODS

The change in smoking habits in the general population was retrieved from surveys and on taxation of sale of cigarettes. We used data from the Swedish Cancer Register on incidence of lung cancer between 1970 and 2021, stratified for sex, age and cell type, and compared the occurrence overtime in ages between 40 and 84 years.

RESULTS

The sale of cigarettes peaked in 1980 to 1800 cigarettes per person and decreased to 600 per person in 2021. The change in incidence rates of squamous cell cancer and other cell types varied over time, sex, and age in a pattern that partly seems to be explained by change in the prevalence of daily smokers. The incidence of adenocarcinoma was similar in men and women 1970-2021 and increased, e.g. for women and men 75-79 years of age from around 20 cases in early 1970s to around 120 cases per 100 000 person-years in the 2020s.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that the risk of lung cancer several years after smoking cessation is less favourable than previously studies have indicated. There is a similar increase in the incidence of adenocarcinoma in men and women which is hard to explain only with changing smoking habits. The change from non-filter to filter cigarettes in the 1960s-1970s may be a contributing factor.

Body mass index and lung cancer risk: Pooled analysis of 10 prospective cohort studies in Japan

Mounting evidence suggests that body mass index (BMI) is inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer. However, relatively few studies have explored this association in Asian people, who have a much lower prevalence of obesity than Caucasians. We pooled data from 10 prospective cohort studies involving 444,143 Japanese men and women to address the association between BMI and the risk of lung cancer. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated in each cohort using the Cox proportional hazards model. A meta-analysis was undertaken by combining the results from each cohort. Heterogeneity across studies was evaluated using Cochran's Q and I2statistics. During 5,730,013 person-years of follow-up, 6454 incident lung cancer cases (4727 men and 1727 women) were identified. Baseline BMI was inversely associated with lung cancer risk in men and women combined. While leanness (BMI <18.5) was associated with a higher risk of lung cancer (HR 1.35; 95% CI, 1.16-1.57), overweight and obesity were associated with a lower risk, with HRs of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.84) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.45-1.07), respectively. Every 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a 21% lower risk of lung cancer (HR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83; p < 0.0001). Our pooled analysis indicated that BMI is inversely associated with the risk of lung cancer in the Japanese population. This inverse association could be partly attributed to residual confounding by smoking, as it was more pronounced among male smokers.

Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

We provide comprehensive sex-stratified projections of cancer prevalence for 22 cancer sites in Japan from 2020 to 2050.

METHODS

Using a scenario-based approach, we projected cancer prevalence by combining projected incidence cases and survival probabilities. Age-specific incidences were forecasted using age-period-cohort models, while survival rates were estimated using a period-analysis approach and multiple parametric survival models. To understand changes in cancer prevalence, decomposition analysis was conducted, assessing the contributions of incidence, survival, and population demographics.

RESULTS

By 2050, cancer prevalence in Japan is projected to reach 3,665,900 (3,210,200 to 4,201,400) thousand cases, representing a 13.1% increase from 2020. This rise is primarily due to a significant increase in female survivors (+27.6%) compared with a modest increase in males (+0.8%), resulting in females overtaking males in prevalence counts from 2040 onward. In 2050, the projected most prevalent cancer sites in Japan include colorectal, female breast, prostate, lung, and stomach cancers, accounting for 66.4% of all survivors. Among males, the highest absolute increases in prevalence are projected for prostate, lung, and malignant lymphoma cancers, while among females, the highest absolute increases are expected for female breast, colorectal, and corpus uteri cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings emphasize the evolving cancer prevalence, influenced by aging populations, changes in cancer incidence rates, and improved survival. Effective prevention, detection, and treatment strategies are crucial to address the growing cancer burden.

IMPACT

This study contributes to comprehensive cancer control strategies and ensures sufficient support for cancer survivors in Japan.

Global variations in lung cancer incidence by histological subtype in 2020: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the second most common cancer worldwide, yet the distribution by histological subtype remains unknown. We aimed to quantify the global, regional, and national burden of lung cancer incidence for the four main subtypes in 185 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we used data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume XI and the African Cancer Registry Network to assess the proportions of adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma among all lung cancers by country, sex, and age group and subsequently applied these data to corresponding national (GLOBOCAN) estimates of lung cancer incidence in 2020. Unspecified morphologies were reallocated to specified subtypes. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated using the world standard population to compare subtype risks worldwide, adjusted for differences in age composition between populations by country.

FINDINGS

In 2020, there were an estimated 2 206 771 new cases of lung cancer, with 1 435 943 in males and 770 828 in females worldwide. In males, 560 108 (39%) of all lung cancer cases were adenocarcinoma, 351 807 (25%) were squamous cell carcinoma, 163 862 (11%) were small-cell carcinoma, and 115 322 (8%) were large-cell carcinoma cases. In females, 440 510 (57%) of all lung cancer cases were adenocarcinoma, 91 070 (12%) were squamous cell carcinoma, 68 224 (9%) were small-cell carcinoma, and 49 246 (6%) were large-cell carcinoma cases. Age-standardised incidence rates for adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, respectively, were estimated to be 12·4, 7·7, 3·6, and 2·6 per 100 000 person-years in males and 8·3, 1·6, 1·3, and 0·9 per 100 000 person-years in females worldwide. The incidence rates of adenocarcinoma exceeded those of squamous cell carcinoma in 150 of 185 countries in males and in all 185 countries in females. The highest age-standardised incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, respectively, for males occurred in eastern Asia (23·5), central and eastern Europe (17·5), western Asia (7·2), and south-eastern Asia (11·0); and for females occurred in eastern Asia (16·0), northern America (5·4), northern America (4·7), and south-eastern Asia (3·4). The incidence of each subtype showed a clear gradient according to the Human Development Index for male and female individuals, with increased rates in high and very high Human Development Index countries.

INTERPRETATION

Adenocarcinoma has become the most common subtype of lung cancer globally in 2020, with incidence rates in males exceeding those of squamous cell carcinoma in most countries, and in females in all countries. Our findings provide new insights into the nature of the global lung cancer burden and facilitates tailored national preventive actions within each world region.

FUNDING

None.

New Perspectives on Sex Steroid Hormones Signaling in Cancer-Associated Fibroblasts of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

The importance of sex hormones, especially estrogen, in the pathogenesis of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has attracted attention due to its high incidence among young adults and nonsmokers, especially those who are female. Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) reside in the cancer stroma and influence cancer growth, invasion, metastasis, and acquisition of drug resistance through interactions with cancer cells and other microenvironmental components. Hormone-mediated cell-cell interactions are classic cell-cell interactions and well-known phenomena in breast cancer and prostate cancer CAFs. In cancers of other organs, including NSCLC, the effects of CAFs on hormone-receptor expression and hormone production in cancer tissues have been reported; however, there are few such studies. Many more studies have been performed on breast and prostate cancers. Recent advances in technology, particularly single-cell analysis techniques, have led to significant advances in the classification and function of CAFs. However, the importance of sex hormones in cell-cell interactions of CAFs in NSCLC remains unclear. This review summarizes reports on CAFs in NSCLC and sex hormones in cancer and immune cells surrounding CAFs. Furthermore, we discuss the prospects of sex-hormone research involving CAFs in NSCLC.

Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2054: An Empirical Validation Approach

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden.

METHODS

We collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation.

RESULTS

We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020-2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.

Trends in, projections of, and inequalities in non-communicable disease management indicators in Vietnam 2010-2030 and progress toward universal health coverage: A Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels

BACKGROUND

Movement towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) can improve health services, risk factor management, and inequality in non-communicable diseases (NCD); conversely, prioritizing and monitoring NCD management can support pathways to UHC in resource-limited settings. We aimed to estimate trends in NCD management indicators in Vietnam from 2010, and projections to 2030 at national and sub-national levels; compute the probability of reaching UHC targets; and measure inequalities in NCD management indicators at demographic, geographic, and socio-economic levels.

METHODS

We included data of 37,595 households from four nationally representative surveys from 2010. We selected and estimated the coverage of NCD health service and risk management indicators nationally and by six sub-national groups. Using Bayesian models, we provided trends and projections and calculated the probability of reaching UHC targets of 80% coverage by 2030. We estimated multiple inequality indices including the relative index of inequality, slope index of inequality, and concentration index of inequality, and provided an assessment of improvement in inequalities over the study period.

FINDINGS

Nationally, all indicators showed a low probability of achieving 2030 targets except sufficient use of fruit and vegetables (SUFV) and non-use of tobacco (NUT). We observed declining trends in national coverage of non-harmful use of alcohol (NHUA), sufficient physical activity (SPA), non-overweight (NOW), and treatment of diabetes (TOD). Except for SPA, no indicator showed the likelihood of achieving 2030 targets at any regional level. Our model suggested a non-achievement of 2030 targets for all indicators in any wealth quintile and educational level, except for SUFV and NUT. There were diversities in tendency and magnitude of inequalities with widening gaps between genders (SPA, TOD), ethnic groups (SUFV), urban-rural areas (TOH), wealth quintiles, and educational levels (TOD, NUT, NHUA).

INTERPRETATION

Our study suggested slow progress in NCD management at the national level and among key sub-populations in Vietnam, together with existing and increasing inequalities between genders, ethnicities, geographic areas, and socioeconomic groups. We emphasised the necessity of continuously improving the healthcare system and facilities, distributing resources between geographic areas, and simultaneously integrating economic, education, and gender intervention and programs.

FUNDING

None.