Indication for neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with colorectal liver metastases based on a nomogram that predicts disease-free survival

Recurrence-risk stratification using the Beppu score and selection of perioperative chemotherapy for colorectal liver metastases

The annual postoperative disease-free survival for colorectal liver metastases can be easily estimated by weighting six preoperative clinical parameters (Beppu score). We identified three recurrence-risk stratification groups: the low (≤6 points), moderate (7-10 points), and high-risk (≥11 points). For low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients, hepatectomy alone, hepatectomy with adjuvant chemotherapy, and hepatectomy with preoperative chemotherapy are recommended, respectively. The Beppu score enables the decision on the necessity and timing of perioperative chemotherapy.

RAS mutation status in combination with the JSHBPS nomogram may be useful for preoperative identification of colorectal liver metastases with high risk of recurrence and mortality after hepatectomy

PURPOSE

To investigate the prognostic impact of RAS mutations on the Japanese Society of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgeons (JSHBPS) nomogram score in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) following hepatectomy.

METHODS

We included 218 consecutive patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM between 2004 and 2020. The JSHBPS nomogram score was calculated using six preoperative clinical factors. The score ranged from 0 to 25, and higher scores indicated greater tumor burden. Associations of RAS mutations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) by the JSHBPS nomogram score were examined. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

RAS mutations were detected in 72 (33%) of the 218 patients. Multivariate analyses revealed that RAS mutations were independently associated with poor DFS (HR, 1.93; 95% CI: 1.20-3.10; p = .007) and OS (HR, 2.65; 95% CI: 1.59-4.71; p = .001) compared with wild-type RAS with JSHBPS nomogram scores ≤ 10. However, in patients with scores ≥ 11, the association of RAS mutations with DFS or OS was not statistically significant (p > .08).

CONCLUSION

RAS mutation status in combination with the JSHBPS nomogram may be useful for preoperatively identifying CRLM with high risk of recurrence and mortality after hepatectomy.

Minimizing the risk of small-for-size syndrome after liver surgery

BACKGROUND

Primary and secondary liver tumors are not always amenable to resection due to location and size. Inadequate future liver remnant (FLR) may prevent patients from having a curative resection or may result in increased postoperative morbidity and mortality from complications related to small-for-size syndrome (SFSS).

DATA SOURCES

This comprehensive review analyzed the principles, mechanism and risk factors associated with SFSS and presented current available options in the evaluation of FLR when planning liver surgery. In addition, it provided a detailed description of specific modalities that can be used before, during or after surgery, in order to optimize the conditions for a safe resection and minimize the risk of SFSS.

RESULTS

Several methods which aim to reduce tumor burden, preserve healthy liver parenchyma, induce hypertrophy of FLR or prevent postoperative complications help minimize the risk of SFSS.

CONCLUSIONS

With those techniques the indications of radical treatment for patients with liver tumors have significantly expanded. The successful outcome depends on appropriate patient selection, the individualization and modification of interventions and the right timing of surgery.

Efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with high-risk resectable colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

The role of preoperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) remains undetermined. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of NAC in patients with resectable CRLM, especially in high-risk subgroups for recurrence, with special reference to synchronicity and the CRLM grade in the Japanese classification system.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of a multi-institutional cohort who was diagnosed with resectable CRLM was performed. CRLM was classified into three grades (A, B, and C) according to the combination of H stage (H1: ≤ 4 lesions and ≤ 5 cm, H2: ≥ 5 lesions or > 5 cm, H3: ≥ 5 lesions and > 5 cm), nodal status of the primary tumor (pN0/1: ≤ 3 metastases, pN2: ≥ 4 metastases), and the presence of resectable extrahepatic metastases.

RESULTS

Among 222 patients with resectable CRLM, 97 (43.7%) had synchronous CRLM. The surgical failure-free survival (SF-FS) of patients with synchronous CRLM (without NAC) was significantly worse than that of patients with metachronous CRLM (P = 0.0264). The SF-FS of patients with Grade B/C was also significantly worse than that of Grade A (P = 0.0058). Among the 53 patients with synchronous and Grade B/C CRLM, 31 were assigned to NAC, and all of them underwent liver surgery. In this high-risk subgroup, the SF-FS and OS in the NAC group were significantly better than those in the upfront surgery group (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0004, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with synchronous and Grade B/C CRLM could be good candidates for indication of NAC.

Upgraded nomograms for the prediction of complications and survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by hepatic resection

Background

To establish upgraded nomograms incorporating neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC)-related factors and preoperative testing markers to predict postoperative complications, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).

Methods

Multivariate regression analyses were used to reveal independent predictors for postoperative complications, PFS and OS. Nomograms incorporating independent predictors were constructed, and discrimination and calibration were evaluated. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test.

Results

A nomogram predicting postoperative complications was constructed based on preoperative serum gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) ≥36 U/L, major liver resection, intraoperative blood loss ≥300 mL, primary site located in the right hemicolon and primary lymph node metastasis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.750. The calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed desirable model calibration (chi-square: 4.47, P=0.88). Moreover, a nomogram for the prediction of PFS was constructed based on tumour regression grade (TRG), primary lymph node metastasis, R0 resection and NAC cycles ≥5, with good discrimination (C-index: 0.663±0.024) and calibration, and one for predicting OS was constructed based on preoperative GGT ≥36 U/L, NAC toxicity, NAC cycles ≥5, primary lymph node metastasis and R0 resection, with favourable discrimination (C-index: 0.684±0.030) and calibration. Significant differences in PFS and OS were observed among patients stratified into three different risk groups (P<0.001) according to total scores based on the nomograms.

Conclusions

This study is the first to establish novel predictive nomograms specifically incorporating TRG, NAC toxicity and serum GGT level for the prediction of postoperative complications, PFS and OS in CRLM patients. The nomograms exhibit favourable discrimination and calibration to guide personalized CRLM management and therapy.

A predictive model for early recurrence of colorectal-cancer liver metastases based on clinical parameters

Background

The prognosis for patients with colorectal-cancer liver metastases (CRLM) after curative surgery remains poor and shows great heterogeneity. Early recurrence, defined as tumor recurrence within 6 months of curative surgery, is associated with poor survival, requiring earlier detection and intervention. This study aimed to develop and validate a bedside model based on clinical parameters to predict early recurrence in CRLM patients and provide insight into post-operative surveillance strategies.

Material and methods

A total of 202 consecutive CRLM patients undergoing curative surgeries between 2012 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled and randomly assigned to the training (n = 150) and validation (n = 52) sets. Baseline information and radiological, pathological, and laboratory findings were extracted from medical records. Predictive factors for early recurrence were identified via a multivariate logistic-regression model to develop a predictive nomogram, which was validated for discrimination, calibration, and clinical application.

Results

Liver-metastases number, lymph-node suspicion, neurovascular invasion, colon/rectum location, albumin and post-operative carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19–9 levels (CA19–9) were independent predictive factors and were used to construct the nomogram for early recurrence after curative surgery. The area under the curve was 0.866 and 0.792 for internal and external validation, respectively. The model significantly outperformed the clinical risk score and Beppu’s model in our data set. In the lift curve, the nomogram boosted the detection rate in post-operative surveillance by two-fold in the top 30% high-risk patients.

Conclusion

Our model for early recurrence in CRLM patients after curative surgeries showed superior performance and could aid in the decision-making for selective follow-up strategies.

Survival Benefit of and Indications for Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Resected Colorectal Liver Metastases-a Japanese Nationwide Survey

BACKGROUND

The survival benefit of and indications for adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) remain unclear.

METHODS

Patients who were diagnosed with liver-limited CRLM between 2005 and 2007 and subsequently underwent R0 resection without preoperative chemotherapy were identified in a Japanese nationwide survey. This overall cohort was divided into synchronous and metachronous CRLM cohorts. In each of the three cohorts, the patients that were given AC were matched with those treated with surgery alone via 1:1 propensity score (PS) matching. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after the initial hepatectomy were compared.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 79.4 months and the overall, synchronous, and metachronous cohorts included 1145, 498, and 647 patients, respectively. After the PS matching, the patients' demographics were well balanced. AC was effective in terms of both RFS and OS in the overall cohort (RFS hazard ratio [HR] 0.784, p = 0.045; OS HR 0.716, p = 0.028) and synchronous cohort (RFS HR 0.677, p = 0.027; OS HR 0.642, p = 0.036), whereas AC was not effective in the metachronous cohort (RFS HR 0.875, p = 0.378; OS HR 0.881, p = 0.496). However, in the metachronous cohort, AC was effective in terms of OS in the subgroup that exhibited disease-free intervals of ≤ 1 year after primary tumor resection (RFS HR 0.667, p = 0.068; OS HR 0.572, p = 0.042).

CONCLUSION

Adjuvant chemotherapy has a survival benefit for patients with resected CRLM. Synchronous CRLM is a favorable indication for AC, whereas in metachronous CRLM, the use of AC should be individualized according to each patient's risk factors.

Beppu's Nomogram Score Is an Independent Prognostic Factor for Colorectal Liver Metastasis Receiving Perioperative Chemotherapy and/or Targeted Therapy

BACKGROUND/AIM

We investigated the impact of Beppu's nomogram on colorectal liver metastasis in patients receiving perioperative chemotherapy and/or targeted therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study included 43 patients who underwent primary hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastasis at the Kanagawa Cancer Center from June 2006 to March 2011. The patients were classified as having a Beppu's nomogram score ≤9 (low-risk group) or ≥10 (high-risk group). The risk factors for the disease-free survival (DFS) were identified.

RESULTS

The respective DFS rates at 1, 2, and 3 years after surgery were 72.0%, 43.3%, and 17.3% in the low-risk group and 27.8%, 16.7%, and 8.3% in the high-risk group, the difference being significant (p=0.009). The multivariate analysis showed that Beppu's nomogram score ≥10 was a significant independent risk factor for the DFS.

CONCLUSION

Beppu's nomogram score was an independent prognostic factor for colorectal liver metastasis in patients receiving perioperative chemotherapy and/or targeted therapy. Thus, Beppu's nomogram might be a useful tool for predicting the risk of recurrence after hepatectomy, even in the era of newly-developed chemotherapy.

Validation of clinical risk scores for laparoscopic liver resections of colorectal liver metastases: A 10-year observed follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to validate clinical risk scores in patients underwent laparoscopic resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM) with 5 years follow-up or more, and assess 5- and 10-year actual survival in this group.

METHODS

A total of 516 laparoscopic liver resections were performed in 406 patients with CLM between February 1998 and September 2015. A follow-up of 5 and 10 years could be assessed in 144 and 29 patients, respectively. The Fong score, pre- and postoperative Basingstoke Predictive Index (BPI), Nordlinger score, and Iwatsuki score were validated.

RESULTS

Five- and ten-year cancer-related actual survival was 54% and 32%, respectively. The Fong score, pre- and postoperative BPI and the Nordlinger score divided patients into risk groups with significant difference in survival between the groups. However, predicted 5-year survival rates were lower than the actual 5-year survival (mean difference in 17%,13%, 20%, and 30%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The Fong score, pre- and postoperative BPI and the Nordlinger score systems can be used to predict survival for laparoscopically operated patients in the era of multimodal-treatment after adjusting of survival rates. The actual five- and 10-year survival after laparoscopic resection of CLM is similar to results previously published for open liver resection. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:757-763. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nomograms for colorectal cancer: A systematic review

AIM

To assist in the selection of suitable nomograms for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.

METHODS

We conducted electronic searches for journal articles on colorectal cancer (CRC)-associated nomograms using the search terms colon/rectal/colorectal/nomogram. Of 174 articles initially found, we retrieved 28 studies in which a nomogram for CRC was developed.

RESULTS

We discuss the currently available CRC-associated nomograms, including those that predict the oncological prognosis, the short-term outcome of treatments, such as surgery or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, and the future development of CRC. Developing nomograms always presents a dilemma. On the one hand, the desire to cover as wide a patient range as possible tends to produce nomograms that are too complex and yet have C-indexes that are not sufficiently high. Conversely, confining the target patients might impair the clinical applicability of constructed nomograms.

CONCLUSION

The information provided in this review should be of use in selecting a nomogram suitable for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.

Long-term outcomes of laparoscopic versus open liver resection for liver metastases from colorectal cancer: A comparative analysis of 168 consecutive cases at a single center

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic liver resection for liver metastases from colorectal cancer (CRLM) is performed in a relatively small number of institutions. Its operative results have been reported to be comparable with that of open laparotomy; however, information on its oncologic outcomes is scarce. This study aimed to compare the long-term outcomes of laparoscopic hepatectomy (LH) and open hepatectomy (OH) to treat CRLM at a single institution.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from 168 consecutive patients who underwent LH (n = 100) or OH (n = 68) for CRLM. The tumor characteristics, operative results, overall survival (OS) rate, recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate, and recurrence patterns were analyzed and compared. A previously published survival-predicting nomogram was applied to compare OS and RFS between the 2 patient groups.

RESULTS

The largest tumor diameter and the number of tumors were significantly larger in the OH group than in the LH group; however, no differences in other tumor factors were observed between the 2 groups. When matched by the nomogram, OS and RFS remained comparable between the 2 groups in every examined stratum, not only for low-risk patients but also for those with high risk. The recurrence patterns also were similar (liver: 30.2% vs 26.8%, P = .72; lung: 22.6% vs 34.1%, P = .22; peritoneum: 7.6% vs 4.9%, P = .45).

CONCLUSION

The long-term outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection for CRLM were comparable with those of the open procedure in not only low-risk but also high-risk patients.