The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modelling the impact of achieving the Fast-Track targets and what it will take to get there

Description of adverse events among adult men following voluntary medical male circumcision: Findings from a circumcision programme in two provinces of South Africa

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials showed strong evidence that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the acquisition of HIV among heterosexual men by up to 60%. However, VMMC uptake in East and Southern Africa remains suboptimal, with safety concerns identified as a barrier to uptake. We investigated the occurrence and severity of adverse events (AEs) in a routine VMMC programme implemented in Gauteng and North West provinces of South Africa.

METHODS

We describe the frequency and characteristics of AEs using routinely collected data from a VMMC programme implemented between 01 May 2013 and 31 December 2014. The surgical procedure was provided at fixed clinics and mobile units in three districts. Adult men undertaking the procedure were referred for follow-up appointments where AEs were monitored.

RESULTS

A total of 7,963 adult men were offered the VMMC service with 7,864 (98.8%) met the age and consent requirements for inclusion in a research follow-up after the surgical procedure and were followed-up for potential AEs. In total, 37 (0.5%) patients reported AEs post-surgery with infection [11 (29.7%)] and excessive bleeding [11 (29.7%)] commonly reported AEs. In terms of severity, 14 (37.8%) were classified as mild, 13 (35.1%) as moderate, and 10 (27.0%) as severe. Further, 32 (86.5%) of the AEs were classified as definitely related to the surgical procedure, with 36 (97.5%) of all AEs resolving without sequelae.

CONCLUSION

The VMMC programme was able to reach adult men at high risk of HIV acquisition. Reported AEs in the programme were minimal, with the observed safety profile comparable to clinical trial settings, suggesting that VMMC can be safely administered in a programmatic setting.

The costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Around two-thirds of all new HIV infections and 90% of syphilis cases occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Testing is a key strategy for the prevention and treatment of HIV and syphilis. Decision-makers in LMICs face considerable uncertainties about the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing. This paper synthesizes economic evidence on the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing interventions in LMICs and evidence on how costs change with the scale of delivery. We systematically searched multiple databases (Medline, Econlit, Embase, EMCARE, CINAHL, Global Health and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) for peer-reviewed studies examining the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing in LMICs. Thirty-five eligible studies were identified from 4869 unique citations. Most studies were conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa (N = 17) and most explored the costs of rapid HIV in facilities targeted the general population (N = 19). Only two studies focused on syphilis testing. Seventeen studies were cost analyses, 17 were cost-effectiveness analyses and 1 was cost-benefit analysis of HIV or syphilis testing. Most studies took a modelling approach (N = 25) and assumed costs increased linearly with scale. Ten studies examined cost efficiencies associated with scale, most reporting short-run economies of scale. Important drivers of the costs of scaling up included testing uptake and the price of test kits. The 'true' cost of scaling up testing is likely to be masked by the use of short-term decision frameworks, linear unit-cost projections (i.e. multiplying an average cost by a factor reflecting activity at a larger scale) and availability of health system capacity and infrastructure to supervise and support scale up. Cost data need to be routinely collected alongside other monitoring indicators as HIV and syphilis testing continues to be scaled up in LMICs.

Access to HIV services and viral load suppression among children during the 90-90-90 strategy implementation in South Africa: A time series analysis

Background

During the era of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), children were shown to have less access to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) services than their adult counterparts; hence the call to prioritise children in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, South African (SA) national data in 2019 indicated that almost 3 years into the implementation of the 90-90-90 strategy, only 59% of children living with HIV had been tested for HIV compared to 90% of adults.

Objectives

To evaluate the access of children to HIV services and record the viral load (VL) suppression rates during the implementation of the 90-90-90 strategy in the City of Johannesburg (COJ), South Africa.

Methods

This study applied a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series (ITS) design using the monthly District Health Information System (DHIS) and National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS) databases spanning the period from 2015 to 2020, that is, before and after the implementation and roll-out of the 90-90-90 strategy. Data were extracted from these databases into MS Excel 2010 spreadsheets and analysed with Stata 15 software from Stata Corp using a two-tailed t-test at a 5% level of significance.

Results

Overall, a significant increase was observed in the number of individuals tested for HIV, n = 757, p = 0.0086, and retained in care n = 2523, p = 0.001 over the whole period of analysis beginning in April 2015. Adult HIV testing, antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and retention in care had been decreasing in absolute numbers over a 10-month period before the intervention. An increase in these three data elements was observed following the implementation of the 90-90-90 program. On the other hand, children aged 0–15 years had demonstrated a significant increase in absolute numbers tested for HIV, n = 171, p = 0.001, but an insignificant increase in number of ART initiations, n = 14.33, p = 0.252, before implementation but a decrease after this. The overall VL suppression rates for children were lower than those of adults.

Conclusion

Although the COJ has recorded progress in adult HIV testing, ART initiation and retention, children living with HIV aged 0–15 years continue to experience less access to HIV services and lower VL suppression than youths and adults of ≥ 15 years. Therefore, to ensure that the 90-90-90 targets are achieved across different age groups, children must be prioritised so that they can equally access these services with adults.

Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts

Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.

Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative

OBJECTIVES

In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies.

METHODS

A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders' rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment.

RESULTS

Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain >750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain >750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes.

CONCLUSIONS

New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE's multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.

HIV testing, care and viral suppression among men who have sex with men and transgender individuals in Johannesburg, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Men who have sex with men and transgender individuals (MSM/TG) carry a disproportionately high burden of HIV, including in South Africa. However, there are few empirical population-representative estimates of viral suppression and the HIV care cascade including HIV testing among this population, nor of factors associated with these outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a respondent driven sampling (RDS) survey among 301 MSM/TG in Johannesburg in 2017. Participants gave blood samples for HIV testing and viral load. Participants self-completed a survey including sociodemographics, HIV testing history, and engagement in care. We calculated RDS-II weighted estimates of the percentage of HIV-negative MSM/TG reporting HIV testing in the previous 6 months, their testing experience and preferences. Among those HIV-positive, we estimated the percentage status-aware, on ART, and virally suppressed (<50 viral copies/ml plasma). We conducted RDS-weighted robust Poisson regression to obtain weighted prevalence ratios of factors associated with 1) HIV testing among those HIV-negative; and 2) viral suppression among those HIV-positive.

RESULTS

There were 118/300 HIV-positive MSM/TG, (37.5%). Of the HIV-negative MSM/TG, 61.5% reported that they had tested for HIV in the previous 6 months, which was associated with selling sex to men (Prevalence Ratio = 1.67, 95% CI 1.36-2.05). There were 76/118 HIV-positive MSM/TG (56.5%) who reported having previously tested positive for HIV and 39/118 (30.0%) who reported current ART. There were 58/118 HIV-positive MSM/TG with viral loads <50 copies/ml plasma (46.9%). Viral suppression was associated with older age (adjusted PR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06 for each year), neighbourhood, and having bought sex from men (adjusted PR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.12-2.08).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV prevalence was very high. Viral suppression among those HIV-positive was similar to the general male population in South Africa, but remains far short of national and international targets. A majority of HIV-negative MSM/TG had HIV tested in the previous 6 months, though there is room for improvement.

Potential health gains in West and Central Africa through savings from lower cost HIV treatment

OBJECTIVE

Prices of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in lower income countries have decreased substantially over the past two decades, helping to facilitate greatly expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, ART coverage in many parts of the world remains low. We investigate the extent of epidemiological benefits that might be expected if ARV drug prices decline further.

DESIGN

A modeling study using data from seven countries in West and Central Africa (Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo).

METHODS

We investigated how the timing of ARV cost reductions could affect the impact and compared three different possible investment strategies: reinvesting in ART, reinvesting in the HIV response according to historical allocations, and reinvesting with the aim of minimizing HIV incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

If ARV drug prices fell by 37% relative to 2018 levels (i.e. following continued trend declines), we calculate ART unit costs could decrease by ∼20% (holding other cost components constant). If this could be achieved by 2020 and the savings were reinvested into ART, we estimate that an additional 8% of HIV infections and 11% of HIV-related deaths could be averted over 2020-2030 across the seven countries. Slightly greater gains could be attained if funds were reinvested in ART in combination with primary prevention. Delays in the year of introduction of ARV price reductions would reduce the impact by about 1% per year.

CONCLUSION

ARV price reductions could free up funds that - if strategically invested - would help countries move closer toward the elimination of HIV.

Optimization by Adaptive Stochastic Descent

When standard optimization methods fail to find a satisfactory solution for a parameter fitting problem, a tempting recourse is to adjust parameters manually. While tedious, this approach can be surprisingly powerful in terms of achieving optimal or near-optimal solutions. This paper outlines an optimization algorithm, Adaptive Stochastic Descent (ASD), that has been designed to replicate the essential aspects of manual parameter fitting in an automated way. Specifically, ASD uses simple principles to form probabilistic assumptions about (a) which parameters have the greatest effect on the objective function, and (b) optimal step sizes for each parameter. We show that for a certain class of optimization problems (namely, those with a moderate to large number of scalar parameter dimensions, especially if some dimensions are more important than others), ASD is capable of minimizing the objective function with far fewer function evaluations than classic optimization methods, such as the Nelder-Mead nonlinear simplex, Levenberg-Marquardt gradient descent, simulated annealing, and genetic algorithms. As a case study, we show that ASD outperforms standard algorithms when used to determine how resources should be allocated in order to minimize new HIV infections in Swaziland.

The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modelling the impact of achieving the Fast-Track targets and what it will take to get there

INTRODUCTION

In 2014, city leaders from around the world endorsed the Paris Declaration on Fast-Track Cities, pledging to achieve the 2020 and 2030 HIV targets championed by UNAIDS. The City of Johannesburg - one of South Africa's metropolitan municipalities and also a health district - has over 600,000 people living with HIV (PLHIV), more than any other city worldwide. We estimate what it would take in terms of programmatic targets and costs for the City of Johannesburg to meet the Fast-Track targets, and demonstrate the impact that this would have.

METHODS

We applied the Optima HIV epidemic and resource allocation model to demographic, epidemiological and behavioural data on 26 sub-populations in Johannesburg. We used data on programme costs and coverage to produce baseline projections. We calculated how many people must be diagnosed, put onto treatment and maintained with viral suppression to achieve the 2020 and 2030 targets. We also estimated how treatment needs - and therefore fiscal commitments - could be reduced if the treatment targets are combined with primary HIV prevention interventions (voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), an expanded condom programme, and comprehensive packages for female sex workers (FSW) and young females).

RESULTS

If current programmatic coverage were maintained, Johannesburg could expect 303,000 new infections and 96,000 AIDS-related deaths between 2017 and 2030 and 769,000 PLHIV by 2030. Achieving the Fast-Track targets would require an additional 135,000 diagnoses and 232,000 people on treatment by 2020 (an increase in around 80% over 2016 treatment numbers), but would avert 176,000 infections and 56,500 deaths by 2030. Assuming stable ART unit costs, this would require ZAR 29 billion (USD 2.15 billion) in cumulative treatment investments over the 14 years to 2030. Plausible scale-ups of other proven interventions (VMMC, condom distribution and FSW strategies) could yield additional reductions in new infections (between 4 and 15%), and in overall treatment investment needs. Scaling up VMMC in line with national targets is found to be cost-effective in the medium term.

CONCLUSIONS

The scale-up in testing and treatment programmes over this decade has been rapid, but these efforts must be doubled to reach 2020 targets. Strategic investments in proven interventions will help Johannesburg achieve the treatment targets and be on track to end AIDS by 2030.