90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020

Trends in HIV prevalence, incidence, and progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in Malawi among individuals aged 15-64 years: population-based HIV impact assessments, 2015-16 and 2020-21

BACKGROUND

In 2014, UNAIDS set the goal of ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 through the achievement of testing and treatment cascade targets. To evaluate progress achieved and highlight persisting gaps in HIV epidemic control in Malawi, we aimed to compare key indicators (prevalence, incidence, viral load suppression, and UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets) from the 2015-16 and 2020-21 Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey results.

METHODS

The Malawi PHIAs were nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys with a two-stage cluster sampling design. The first survey was conducted between Nov 27, 2015, and Aug 26, 2016; the second survey was conducted between Jan 15, 2020, and April 26, 2021. Our analysis included survey participants aged 15-64 years. Participants were interviewed and a 14 mL blood sample was collected and tested for HIV infection using the national rapid testing algorithm. For each survey, we estimated key HIV epidemic indicators and achievement of 95-95-95 targets. The risk ratio (RR) of the indicators between surveys were computed and considered significant at a confidence level of 0·05. All results were weighted, and self-reported awareness and treatment status were adjusted to account for detection of antiretrovirals.

FINDINGS

Our analysis included 17 187 participants aged 15-64 years in 2015-16 and 21 208 in 2020-21 who participated in the surveys and blood draw. In the 2020-21 survey, 88·4% (95% CI 86·7-90·0) of people living with HIV were aware of their HIV-positive status; of those aware, 97·8% (97·1-98·5) were on antiretroviral therapy; and of those on treatment, 96·9% (95·9-97·7) were virally suppressed. Between surveys, the national HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 10·6% (10·0-11·2) to 8·9% (8·4-9·5) with RR 0·85 (95% CI 0·78-0·92; p<0·0001). The annual HIV incidence decreased from 0·37% (0·20-0·53) to 0·22% (0·11-0·34) with RR 0·61 (95% CI 0·31-1·20; p=0·15). The population viral load suppression increased from 68·3% (66·0-70·7) in 2015-16 to 87·0% (85·3-88·5) in 2020-21 (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·22-1·32]; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

These results suggest that Malawi had already surpassed the UNAIDS viral load suppression target for 2030 (85·7%) by 2020-21. Through strategies and evidence-informed interventions implemented in the last half decade, especially scale-up of effective HIV treatment, Malawi has made tremendous progress, including decreasing HIV prevalence and incidence and achieving both the second and third 95 targets ahead of 2030. To address the first 95, efforts in HIV diagnosis should focus on males and younger age groups. There is a continued need for effective linkage to care, retention on antiretroviral therapy, and adherence support to maintain and build on progress.

FUNDING

US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Progress Toward the 90-90-90 HIV Targets in Zimbabwe and Identifying Those Left Behind

OBJECTIVE

We present findings from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment that characterize Zimbabwe's progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets.

DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional household survey.

METHODS

Consenting adults and children in the household were eligible to participate in Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (October 2015-August 2016). Participants completed face-to-face interviews and provided blood for HIV, CD4, viral load, and syphilis testing. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. HIV-positive specimens were tested for the presence of selected antiretroviral drugs. Data were weighted. Analysis was restricted to HIV-positive adults aged 15-64 years.

RESULTS

We enrolled 11,098 men and 14,033 women aged 15-64 years. HIV prevalence was 14.1%. Of those living with HIV, 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.9 to 78.7) were aware of their HIV status or had detectable antiretroviral levels. Of these, 88.4% (95% CI: 87.1 to 89.7) were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and of these people, 85.3% (95% CI: 83.4 to 87.1) had VLS. Male sex age 15-34 years and having 1 or more sexual partners were associated with being unaware of one's HIV-positive status. Age <50 years and not taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being less likely to be being both aware and taking ART. Male sex, age <50 years, and taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being on ART but not having VLS.

CONCLUSIONS

Zimbabwe has made great strides toward epidemic control. Focusing resources on case finding, particularly among men, people aged <35 years, and sexually active individuals can help Zimbabwe attain 90-90-90 targets.

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate

National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates.

Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative

OBJECTIVES

In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies.

METHODS

A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders' rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment.

RESULTS

Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain >750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain >750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes.

CONCLUSIONS

New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE's multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.

Strengthening the scale-up and uptake of effective interventions for sex workers for population impact in Zimbabwe

Introduction

UNAIDS’ goal of ending AIDS by 2030 is unreachable without better targeting of testing, prevention and care. Female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe are at high risk of HIV acquisition and transmission. Here, we report on collated programme and research data from Zimbabwe's national sex work programme. We also assess the potential for wider population impact of FSW programmes by modelling the impact on HIV incidence of eliminating transmission through FSW (i.e. calculate the population attributable fraction of incidence attributable to sex work).

Methods

Descriptive analyses of individual‐level programme data collected from FSW between 2009 and June 2018 are triangulated with data collected through 37 respondent driven sampling surveys from 19 sites in Zimbabwe 2011 to 2017. We describe programme coverage, uptake, retention and patterns of sex work behaviour and gaps in service provision. An individual‐level stochastic simulation model is used to reconstruct the epidemic and then the incidence compared with the counter‐factual trend in incidence from 2010 had transmission through sex work been eliminated from that date.

Results

Sisters has reached >67,000 FSW since 2009, increasing attendance as number of sites, programme staff and peer educators were increased. Over 57% of all FSW estimated to be working in Zimbabwe in 2017 (n = 40,000) attended the programme at least once. The proportion of young FSW reached has increased with introduction of the “Young Sisters programme.” There are no clear differences in pattern of sex work across settings. Almost all women report condom use with clients at last sex (95%); however, consistent condom use with clients in the last month varies from 52% to 95% by site. Knowledge of HIV‐positive status has increased from 48 to 78% between 2011 and 2016, as has prevalence of ART use among diagnosed women (29 to 67%). Although subject to uncertainty, modelling suggests that 70% (90% range: 32%, 93%) of all new infections in Zimbabwe from 2010 are directly or indirectly attributable to transmission via sex work.

Conclusions

It is feasible to increase coverage and impact of sex work programming through community‐led scale‐up of evidence‐based interventions. Eliminating transmission through commercial sex would likely have a substantial impact on new infections occurring more widely across Zimbabwe.

Strategies to promote the meaningful involvement of sex workers in HIV prevention and care

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review the recent evidence regarding strategies for engaging sex workers in HIV prevention and care programs. We searched Pub Med on 19 March 2019 using terms 'Sex Work' And 'HIV infections'. Our search was limited to articles published since 2017.

RECENT FINDINGS

Community empowerment approaches where sex workers work collaboratively to address their specific priorities and concerns, including those beyond HIV, are those most likely to meaningfully engage sex workers. Community-driven programs that combine structural, behavioral and biomedical approaches can facilitate improved HIV outcomes by tackling barriers to uptake and retention of services along all steps in the prevention and care cascades. Microplanning, network-based recruitment and mobile-phone interventions can also help reach and support sex workers to mobilize and to engage with a range of services. Sex worker-led groups and initiatives including economic strengthening and community drug refill groups can both build social cohesion and address structural barriers to HIV outcomes including financial insecurity. Interventions which focus narrowly on increasing uptake of specific steps in prevention and care cascades outside the context of broader community empowerment responses are likely to be less effective.

SUMMARY

Comprehensive, community-driven approaches where sex workers mobilize to address their structural, behavioral and biomedical priorities work across HIV prevention and treatment cascades to increase uptake of and engagement with prevention and care technologies and promote broader health and human rights. These interventions need to be adequately supported and taken to scale.

90-90-90 by 2020? Estimation and projection of the adult HIV epidemic and ART programme in Zimbabwe - 2017 to 2020

INTRODUCTION

The 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations aspire to 73% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) being virally suppressed by 2020. Using the HIV Synthesis Model, we aim to mimic the epidemic in Zimbabwe and make projections to assess whether Zimbabwe is on track to meet the 90-90-90 targets and assess whether recently proposed UNAIDS HIV transition metrics are likely to be met.

METHODS

We used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to identify model parameter values which result in model outputs consistent with observed data, evaluated using a calibration score. These parameter values were then used to make projections to 2020 to compare with the 90-90-90 targets and other key indicators. We also calculated HIV transition metrics proposed by UNAIDS (percentage reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related mortality from 2010 to 2020, absolute rate of new infections and AIDS-related mortality, incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios).

RESULTS

After calibration, there was general agreement between modelled and observed data. The median predicted outcomes in 2020 were: proportion of PLHIV (aged 15 to 65) diagnosed 0.91 (90% uncertainty range 0.87, 0.94) (0.84 men, 0.95 women); of those diagnosed, proportion on treatment 0.92 (0.90, 0.93); of those receiving treatment, proportion with viral suppression 0.86 (0.81, 0.91). This results in 72% of PLHIV having viral suppression in 2020. We estimated a percentage reduction of 36.5% (13.7% increase to 67.4% reduction) in new infections from 2010 to 2020, and of 30.4% (9.7% increase to 56.6% reduction) in AIDS-related mortality (UNAIDS target 75%). The modelled absolute rates of HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality in 2020 were 5.48 (2.26, 9.24) and 1.93 (1.31, 2.71) per 1000 person-years respectively. The modelled incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios in 2020 were 1.05 (0.46, 1.66) and 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model was able to produce outputs that are simultaneously consistent with an array of observed data and predicted that while the 90-90-90 targets are within reach in Zimbabwe, increased efforts are required in diagnosing men in particular. Calculation of the HIV transition metrics suggest increased efforts are needed to bring the HIV epidemic under control.

PANGEA-HIV 2: Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalised Epidemics in Africa

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is far from being under control and the ambitious UNAIDS targets are unlikely to be met by 2020 as declines in per-capita incidence being largely offset by demographic trends. There is an increasing number of proven and specific HIV prevention tools, but little consensus on how best to deploy them.

RECENT FINDINGS

Traditionally, phylogenetics has been used in HIV research to reconstruct the history of the epidemic and date zoonotic infections, whereas more recent publications focus on HIV diversity and drug resistance. However, it is also the most powerful method of source attribution available for the study of HIV transmission. The PANGEA (Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized Epidemics in Africa) consortium has generated over 18 000 NGS HIV sequences from five countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using phylogenetic methods, we will identify characteristics of individuals or groups, which are most likely to be at risk of infection or at risk of infecting others.

SUMMARY

Combining phylogenetics, phylodynamics and epidemiology will allow PANGEA to highlight where prevention efforts should be focussed to reduce the HIV epidemic most effectively. To maximise the public health benefit of the data, PANGEA offers accreditation to external researchers, allowing them to access the data and join the consortium. We also welcome submissions of other HIV sequences from sub-Saharan Africa to the database.