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Trejo I, Hung PY, Matrajt L. Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0002136. [PMID: 38252671 PMCID: PMC10802966 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023, 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Imelda Trejo
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Pei-Yao Hung
- Institute For Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Laura Matrajt
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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Trejo I, Hung PY, Matrajt L. Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.06.15.23291472. [PMID: 37986918 PMCID: PMC10659519 DOI: 10.1101/2023.06.15.23291472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Background There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. Methods We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. Results We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters. Covid19Vaxplorer allows users in 183 regions in the world to compare several vaccination strategies simultaneously, adjusting parameters to their local epidemics, infrastructure and logistics. Covid19Vaxplorer is an online, free, user-friendly tool that facilitates evidence-based decision making for vaccine distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Imelda Trejo
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, US
| | - Pei-Yao Hung
- Institute For Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, US
| | - Laura Matrajt
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, US
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
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Bayat AH, Azimi H, Hassani Moghaddam M, Ebrahimi V, Fathi M, Vakili K, Mahmoudiasl GR, Forouzesh M, Boroujeni ME, Nariman Z, Abbaszadeh HA, Aryan A, Aliaghaei A, Abdollahifar MA. COVID-19 causes neuronal degeneration and reduces neurogenesis in human hippocampus. Apoptosis 2022; 27:852-868. [PMID: 35876935 PMCID: PMC9310365 DOI: 10.1007/s10495-022-01754-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Recent investigations of COVID-19 have largely focused on the effects of this novel virus on the vital organs in order to efficiently assist individuals who have recovered from the disease. In the present study we used hippocampal tissue samples extracted from people who died after COVID-19. Utilizing histological techniques to analyze glial and neuronal cells we illuminated a massive degeneration of neuronal cells and changes in glial cells morphology in hippocampal samples. The results showed that in hippocampus of the studied brains there were morphological changes in pyramidal cells, an increase in apoptosis, a drop in neurogenesis, and change in spatial distribution of neurons in the pyramidal and granular layer. It was also demonstrated that COVID-19 alter the morphological characteristics and distribution of astrocyte and microglia cells. While the exact mechanism(s) by which the virus causes neuronal loss and morphology in the central nervous system (CNS) remains to be determined, it is necessary to monitor the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection on CNS compartments like the hippocampus in future investigations. As a result of what happened in the hippocampus secondary to COVID-19, memory impairment may be a long-term neurological complication which can be a predisposing factor for neurodegenerative disorders through neuroinflammation and oxidative stress mechanisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amir-Hossein Bayat
- Department of Basic Sciences, Saveh University of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
| | - Helia Azimi
- Skull Base Research Center, Loghman Hakim Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Meysam Hassani Moghaddam
- Department of Anatomical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, AJA University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Vahid Ebrahimi
- Department of Anatomy and Cell Biology, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Mobina Fathi
- Student Research Committee, Faculty of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kimia Vakili
- Student Research Committee, Faculty of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Mahdi Forouzesh
- Legal Medicine Research Center, Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mahdi Eskandarian Boroujeni
- Laboratory of Human Molecular Genetics, Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland
| | - Zahra Nariman
- Skull Base Research Center, Loghman Hakim Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hojjat-Allah Abbaszadeh
- Laser Application in Medical Sciences Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Arefeh Aryan
- Anatomy Department, School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Abbas Aliaghaei
- Skull Base Research Center, Loghman Hakim Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. .,Department of Cell Biology and Anatomical Sciences, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. .,Department of Biology and Anatomical Sciences, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar
- Skull Base Research Center, Loghman Hakim Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. .,Department of Cell Biology and Anatomical Sciences, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
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