Predicting the development of brain metastases in patients with local/regional melanoma

Predictive and Prognostic Factors in Melanoma Central Nervous System Metastases-A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Melanoma is the cancer with the highest risk of dissemination to the central nervous system (CNS), one of the leading causes of mortality from this cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To identify patients at higher risk of developing CNS metastases and to evaluate associated prognostic factors.

METHODS

A cohort study (1998-2023) assessed patients who developed CNS melanoma metastases. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictive factors at melanoma diagnosis for CNS metastasis. Cox regression analysis evaluated the CNS-independent metastasis-related variables impacting survival.

RESULTS

Out of 4718 patients, 380 (8.05%) developed CNS metastases. Multivariate logistic regression showed that a higher Breslow index, mitotic rate ≥ 1 mm2, ulceration, and microscopic satellitosis were significant risk factors for CNS metastasis development. Higher patient age and the location of the primary tumor in the upper or lower extremities were protective factors. In survival analysis, post-CNS metastasis, symptomatic disease, prior non-CNS metastases, CNS debut with multiple metastases, elevated LDH levels, and leptomeningeal involvement correlated with poorer survival.

CONCLUSION

Predictive factors in the primary tumor independently associated with brain metastases include microscopic satellitosis, ulceration, higher Breslow index, and trunk location. Prognostic factors for lower survival in CNS disease include symptomatic disease, multiple CNS metastases, and previous metastases from different sites.

Atopy improves survival and decreases risk of brain metastasis in cutaneous melanoma

Importance

Development of new therapies in melanoma has increased survival, and as a result more patients are living to develop brain metastasis (BrM). Identifying patients at increased risk of BrM is therefore of significant public health importance.

Objective

To determine whether history of atopy is associated with improved survival or reduced incidence of BrM in cutaneous melanoma.

Design

A retrospective cohort study conducted from June 2022 to March 2024.

Setting

Population-based in states with Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) supported cancer registries.

Participants

Individuals (≥65 years) diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 that are participants in traditional Medicare.

Exposures

Individuals were compared that had history of atopy (allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, and/or allergic/atopic conjunctivitis) diagnosed prior to melanoma diagnosis, ascertained using ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes in Medicare claims.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary endpoints were diagnosis with a BrM or death during the follow-up period. Associations between atopy and endpoints were assessed using cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and p-values.

Results

A total of 29,956 cutaneous melanoma cases were identified (median age 76, 60% male and 97% non-Hispanic White). Overall, 7.1% developed BrM during follow up. Among the 35% that had history of atopy, the most common condition was atopic dermatitis (19%). After adjustment for demographic and prognostic factors, atopy was associated with a 16% decrease in death (HR=0.84 [95%CI:0.80-0.87], pFDR<0.001). Among those with non-metastatic disease at time of diagnosis, atopy conferred a 15% decrease in cumulative incidence BrM (HR=0.85 [95%CI: 0.76-0.94], pFDR=0.006), with a 25% decrease associated with atopic dermatitis (HR=0.75 [95%CI:0.65-0.86], pFDR<0.001). Among those with metastatic disease at diagnosis (any metastatic site), only those who received immune checkpoint inhibitors had a survival benefit associated with atopy (HR=0.31, [95%CI:0.15-0.64], p=0.001 vs HR=1.41, [95%CI:0.87-2.27], p=0.165).

Conclusions and Relevance

Atopy, particularly atopic dermatitis, was significantly associated with improved survival and decreased incidence of BrM. The improved survival associated with these conditions in the context of immunotherapy suggests that these conditions in the elderly may identify those with more robust immune function that may be more responsive to treatment.

Prognostic Value of Baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT to Predict Brain Metastasis Development in Melanoma Patients

To investigate the value of 18F-FDG-PET/CT in predicting the occurrence of brain metastases in melanoma patients, in this retrospective study 201 consecutive patients with pathology-proven melanoma, between 2008 and 2021, were reviewed. Those who underwent 18F-FDG-PET/CT for initial staging were considered eligible. Baseline assessment included histopathology, 18F-FDG-PET/CT, and brain MRI. Also, all patients had serial follow-ups for diagnosing brain metastasis development. Baseline 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters were analysed using competing risk regression models to analyze their correlation with the occurrence of brain metastases. Overall, 159 patients entered the study. The median follow-up was six years. Among clinical variables, the initial M-stage and TNM-stage were significantly correlated with brain metastasis. Regarding 18F-FDG-PET/CT parameters, regional metastatic lymph node uptake values, as well as prominent SULmax (pSULmax) and prominent SUVmean (pSUVmean), were significantly correlated with the outcome. Cumulative incidences were 10% (6.3-16%), 31% (24.4-38.9%), and 35.2% (28.5-43.5%) after 1, 5, and 10 years. There were significant correlations between pSULmax (p-value < 0.001) and pSULpeak (p-value < 0.001) and the occurrence of brain metastases. The higher these values, the sooner the patient developed brain metastases. Thus, baseline 18F-FDG-PET/CT may have the potential to predict brain metastasis in melanoma patients. Those with high total metabolic activity should undergo follow-up/complementary evaluations, such as brain MRI.

Brain metastasis and survival outcomes after first-line therapy in metastatic melanoma: a multicenter DeCOG study on 1704 patients from the prospective skin cancer registry ADOREG

BACKGROUND

Despite the availability of effective systemic therapies, a significant number of advanced melanoma patients develops brain metastases. This study investigated differences in incidence and time to diagnosis of brain metastasis and survival outcomes dependent on the type of first-line therapy.

METHODS

Patients with metastatic, non-resectable melanoma (AJCCv8 stage IIIC-V) without brain metastasis at start of first-line therapy (1L-therapy) were identified from the prospective multicenter real-world skin cancer registry ADOREG. Study endpoints were incidence of brain metastasis, brain metastasis-free survival (BMFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Of 1704 patients, 916 were BRAF wild-type (BRAFwt) and 788 were BRAF V600 mutant (BRAFmut). Median follow-up time after start of 1L-therapy was 40.4 months. BRAFwt patients received 1L-therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) against CTLA-4+PD-1 (n=281) or PD-1 (n=544). In BRAFmut patients, 1L-therapy was ICI in 415 patients (CTLA-4+PD-1, n=108; PD-1, n=264), and BRAF+MEK targeted therapy (TT) in 373 patients. After 24 months, 1L-therapy with BRAF+MEK resulted in a higher incidence of brain metastasis compared with PD-1±CTLA-4 (BRAF+MEK, 30.3%; CTLA-4+PD-1, 22.2%; PD-1, 14.0%). In multivariate analysis, BRAFmut patients developed brain metastases earlier on 1L-therapy with BRAF+MEK than with PD-1±CTLA-4 (CTLA-4+PD-1: HR 0.560, 95% CI 0.332 to 0.945, p=0.030; PD-1: HR 0.575, 95% CI 0.372 to 0.888, p=0.013). Type of 1L-therapy, tumor stage, and age were independent prognostic factors for BMFS in BRAFmut patients. In BRAFwt patients, tumor stage was independently associated with longer BMFS; ECOG Performance status (ECOG-PS), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and tumor stage with OS. CTLA-4+PD-1 did not result in better BMFS, PFS, or OS than PD-1 in BRAFwt patients. For BRAFmut patients, multivariate Cox regression revealed ECOG-PS, type of 1L-therapy, tumor stage, and LDH as independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS. 1L-therapy with CTLA-4+PD-1 led to longer OS than PD-1 (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.122 to 3.455, p=0.018) or BRAF+MEK (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.432 to 4.054, p=0.001), without PD-1 being superior to BRAF+MEK.

CONCLUSIONS

In BRAFmut patients 1L-therapy with PD-1±CTLA-4 ICI resulted in a delayed and less frequent development of brain metastasis compared with BRAF+MEK TT. 1L-therapy with CTLA-4+PD-1 showed superior OS compared with PD-1 and BRAF+MEK. In BRAFwt patients, no differences in brain metastasis and survival outcomes were detected for CTLA-4+PD-1 compared with PD-1.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors of brain metastasis for acral and mucosal melanoma patients with stages I-III

PURPOSE

Few studies focused on the incidence of brain metastasis in patients with acral and mucosal melanoma, and a better understanding of the incidences and predictors of brain metastasis is needed in these patients.

METHOD

A prospectively accrued cohort of 799 patients with acral and mucosal melanoma in stages I-III from July 2011 to December 2015 at Peking University Cancer Hospital were included in this study. Competing risk models (Fine and Gray) were used to estimate the cumulative incidence of brain metastasis and compare the differences in cumulative incidence curves between different primary lesions, stages, and molecular types.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up time of 68.0 months, 60 of the 779 patients (7.7%) developed brain metastasis, and 261 (33.5%) patients developed extracranial metastasis. Considering the risk of competition, the cumulative incidence of brain metastasis at one year, two years, and five years after diagnosis were 5.1%, 10.2%, and 19.5%, respectively. Stage III, BRAF mutations, and NRAS mutations were associated with a high risk of brain metastasis in univariable analysis. Multivariate analysis showed BRAF mutations, and NRAS mutations had statistically correlated with an increased cumulative incidence of brain metastasis at diagnosis and all-time point of one year and two years after diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This study is the first to report the cumulative incidence and risk factors of brain metastasis for patients with acral and mucosal melanoma in stages I-III. Patients with BRAF and NRAS mutations had a higher incidence at diagnosis and all-time point, providing the basis for surveillance guidelines and further mechanic exploration.

Risk and tropism of central nervous system (CNS) metastases in patients with stage II and III cutaneous melanoma

BACKGROUND

Recent data suggest that patients with stage III melanoma are at high risk for developing central nervous system (CNS) metastases. Because a subset of patients with stage II melanoma experiences worse survival outcomes than some patients with stage III disease, the authors investigated the risk of CNS metastasis in stage II melanoma to inform surveillance guidelines for this population.

METHODS

The authors examined clinicopathologic data prospectively collected from 1054 patients who had cutaneous melanoma. The χ² test, the cumulative incidence, and Cox multivariable regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between baseline characteristics and the development of CNS metastases.

RESULTS

Patients with stage III melanoma had a higher rate of developing brain metastases than those with stage II melanoma (100 of 468 patients [21.4%] vs. 82 of 586 patients [14.0%], respectively; p = .002). However, patients who had stage IIC melanoma had a significantly higher rate of isolated first recurrences in the CNS compared with those who had stage III disease (12.1% vs. 3.6%; p = .002). The risk of ever developing brain metastases was similarly elevated for patients who had stage IIC disease (hazard ratio [HR], 3.16; 95% CI, 1.77-5.66), stage IIIB disease (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.63-4.91), and stage IIIC disease (HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.81-4.74), and the risk was highest in patients who had stage IIID disease (HR, 8.59; 95% CI: 4.11-17.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with stage IIC melanoma are at elevated risk for first recurrence in the CNS. Surveillance strategies that incorporate serial neuroimaging should be considered for these individuals until more accurate predictive markers can be identified.

Brain metastases: the role of clinical imaging

Imaging of brain metastases (BMs) has advanced greatly over the past decade. In this review, we discuss the main challenges that BMs pose in clinical practice and describe the role of imaging.Firstly, we describe the increased incidence of BMs of different primary tumours and the rationale for screening. A challenge lies in selecting the right patients for screening: not all cancer patients develop BMs in their disease course.Secondly, we discuss the imaging techniques to detect BMs. A three-dimensional (3D) T1W MRI sequence is the golden standard for BM detection, but additional anatomical (susceptibility weighted imaging, diffusion weighted imaging), functional (perfusion MRI) and metabolic (MR spectroscopy, positron emission tomography) information can help to differentiate BMs from other intracranial aetiologies.Thirdly, we describe the role of imaging before, during and after treatment of BMs. For surgical resection, imaging is used to select surgical patients, but also to assist intraoperatively (neuronavigation, fluorescence-guided surgery, ultrasound). For treatment planning of stereotactic radiosurgery, MRI is combined with CT. For surveillance after both local and systemic therapies, conventional MRI is used. However, advanced imaging is increasingly performed to distinguish true tumour progression from pseudoprogression.FInally, future perspectives are discussed, including radiomics, new biomarkers, new endogenous contrast agents and theranostics.

Cumulative Incidence and Predictors of CNS Metastasis for Patients With American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th Edition Stage III Melanoma

PURPOSE

Improved understanding of the incidence, risk factors, and timing of CNS metastasis is needed to inform surveillance strategies for patients with melanoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical data were extracted from the databases of 2 major melanoma centers in the United States and Australia for 1,918 patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition stage III melanoma, diagnosed from 1998-2014, who had (negative) baseline CNS imaging within 4 months of diagnosis. The cumulative incidence of CNS metastasis was calculated in the presence of the competing risk of death, from stage III presentation and at benchmark time points 1, 2, and 5 years postdiagnosis.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up of 70.2 months, distant recurrence occurred in 711 patients (37.1%). The first site of distant metastasis was CNS only for 3.9% of patients, CNS and extracranial (EC) for 1.8%, and EC only for 31.4%. Overall, 16.7% of patients were diagnosed with CNS metastasis during follow-up. The cumulative incidence of CNS metastasis was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.9% to 4.6%) at 1 year, 9.6% (95% CI, 8.3% to 11.0%) at 2 years, and 15.8% (95% CI, 14.1% to 17.6%) at 5 years. The risk of CNS metastasis was significantly influenced by patient sex, age, AJCC stage, primary tumor site, and primary tumor mitotic rate in multivariable and conditional analyses. High primary tumor mitotic rate was significantly associated with increased risk of CNS metastasis at diagnosis and all subsequent time points examined.

CONCLUSION

Similar rates of CNS metastasis were observed in 2 large, geographically distinct cohorts of patients with stage III melanoma. The results highlight the importance of primary tumor mitotic rate. Furthermore, they provide a framework for developing evidence-based surveillance strategies and evaluating the impact of contemporary adjuvant therapies on the risk of CNS metastasis development.

Incidence and prognosis of brain metastases in cutaneous melanoma patients: a population-based study

Brain metastases (BM) from cutaneous melanoma are associated with poor prognosis. Population-based data describing the associated factors of incidence and prognosis of BM from melanoma are still lacking. We identified 121 255 melanoma patients diagnosed during 2010-2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, and identified predictive factors for incidence and survival of BM patients by using multivariable logistic and Cox's proportional hazard regression, respectively. We identified 1547 patients with BM at the time of diagnosis of malignant cutaneous melanoma, representing 1.3% of the entire cohort and 35.4% of the subset with metastatic disease. The characteristics associated with higher BM incidence were male sex, age 40-60 years, melanoma location of face/head/neck, histologic type of nodular, higher T-stage, ulceration and extracranial metastases. The median overall survival and median cutaneous melanoma specific survival of patients with BM was 5 and 6 months, respectively. The relative factors of poor survival were older age and more extracranial metastatic sites. In summary, we provided insight into the epidemiology of BM from cutaneous melanoma. These results may provide significant help to improve the screening strategy of BM strategy and update the existing prognosis evaluation system.

Is imaging of the brain necessary at diagnosis for cutaneous head and neck melanomas?

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the frequency of brain metastasis at the time of diagnosis for patients with cutaneous head and neck melanoma (CHNM).

METHODS

Patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included from 2010 to 2014 based on a diagnosis of CHNM using ICD O-3 histology codes and primary site location documentation. Patients were also included if they had a "yes" or "no" documented in the "Mets at Dx-Brain" category.

RESULTS

In this study, 46 out of 19,066 (0.2%) patients diagnosed with CHNM presented with brain metastasis at diagnosis. Of the 19,066 patients, 14,124 (74.1%) were male. Caucasian race was noted in 18,299 cases (96.0%). 16.8% of patients with AJCC 7 Stage IV/M1 CHNM had brain metastasis at the time of diagnosis as compared to 0% in Stage I-III/M0 lesions (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The 2018 NCCN guidelines recommend healthcare providers consider ordering a baseline brain MRI for patients with stage IIIC or greater melanoma. This study demonstrates the very low frequency of brain metastasis at time of diagnosis in patients with CHNM and supports the NCCN recommendations demonstrating that only very advanced stages of CHNM require baseline brain imaging.

Risk factors for development of melanoma brain metastasis and disease progression: a single-center retrospective analysis

Melanoma metastasis to the brain is associated with a poor prognosis. We sought to determine patient demographics and primary tumor factors associated with the development of brain metastasis (BM) and survival. We also investigated whether the BM detection setting (routine screening vs. symptomatic presentation) affected clinical outcomes. A database of melanoma patients seen from 1999 to 2015 at our institution was reviewed to identify patients who developed BM. Patients with BM were matched by initial stage with patients who did not develop BM as a control group. Patient demographics, primary tumor characteristics, and clinical outcomes were analyzed. A total of 123 patients with BM were matched by initial presenting stage to 237 patients without BM. The characteristics of the primary melanoma tumor associated with BM development included location on the scalp (P=0.030), nodular histologic type (P=0.020), and Breslow depth more than 4 mm (P=0.048), whereas location on the leg was associated with decreased BM risk (P=0.006). In patients with BM, time to first recurrence for melanomas of the scalp was significantly shorter (10.8 vs. 24.8 months, P=0.007) than nonscalp head and neck tumors. Patient stage, tumor depth, nodular type, and ulceration were also associated with worse clinical outcomes. There were no differences in the clinical outcomes between patients whose BM were detected upon routine screening versus those detected upon symptomatic presentation. In summary, factors predictive of development of BM included primary scalp location, nodular type, and depth. In BM patients, scalp location, stage, tumor depth, nodular type, and ulceration, but not detection setting, were associated with worse clinical outcomes.

Brain metastases in malignant pleural mesothelioma

The brain is a rare site of metastasis in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), and its clinical features and prognosis remain unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence, prognosis, and risk factors for brain metastases (BM) in MPM patients. Between July 1993 and October 2014, 150 patients with histologically proven MPM were included in this retrospective study. The cumulative incidence of BM was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences between groups were analyzed by the log-rank test. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to assess risk factors for BM. The median follow-up time was 11 months (range 0-154.0 months). A total of eight patients (5.3 %) developed BM during the course of their illness. Multivariate analysis identified age <65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 5.83, p = 0.038) and International Mesothelioma Interest Group stage IV (OR = 1.69, p = 0.040) as independent factors related to increased risk of developing BM. The 1-and 2-year cumulative rates of BM were 4.0 % (95 % confidence intervals [CI] 1.4-8.5 %) and 5.3 % (95 % CI 2.3-10.2 %), respectively. Our study showed that the overall survival (OS) of patients with BM was worse than that of patients without BM (median OS 6.5 vs. 11.0 months, p = 0.037). The prognosis for BM in MPM patients is poor. Clinicians should perform careful screening for BM, especially in patients with risk factors.