Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group

Preoperative prediction of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor grade based on 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT

OBJECTIVE

To establish a prediction model for preoperatively predicting grade 1 and grade 2/3 tumors in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) based on 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT.

METHODS

Clinical data of 41 patients with PNETs were included in this study. According to the pathological results, they were divided into grade 1 and grade 2/3. 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT images were collected within one month before surgery. The clinical risk factors and significant radiological features were filtered, and a clinical predictive model based on these clinical and radiological features was established. 3D slicer was used to extracted 107 radiomic features from the region of interest (ROI) of 68Ga-dotata PET/CT images. The Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), recursive feature elimination (REF) based five-fold cross validation were adopted for the radiomic feature selection, and a radiomic score was computed subsequently. The comprehensive model combining the clinical risk factors and the rad-score was established as well as the nomogram. The performance of above clinical model and comprehensive model were evaluated and compared.

RESULTS

Adjacent organ invasion, N staging, and M staging were the risk factors for PNET grading (p < 0.05). 12 optimal radiomic features (3 PET radiomic features, 9 CT radiomic features) were screen out. The clinical predictive model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.785. The comprehensive model has better predictive performance (AUC = 0.953).

CONCLUSION

We proposed a comprehensive nomogram model based on 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT to predict grade 1 and grade 2/3 of PNETs and assist personalized clinical diagnosis and treatment plans for patients with PNETs.

Outlook for 615 Small Intestinal Neuroendocrine Tumor Patients: Recurrence Risk after Surgery and Disease-Specific Survival in Advanced Disease

BACKGROUND

Small intestinal neuroendocrine tumors (siNET) are one of the most common neuroendocrine neoplasms. Radical surgery is the only curative treatment.

METHOD

We utilized a single-center study including consecutive patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2020 and followed them until death or the end of study. Disease-specific survival and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were investigated by Cox regression analyses with the inclusion of prognostic factors. Aims/primary outcomes: We identified three groups: (1) disease specific-survival in the total cohort (group1), (2) RFS and disease-specific survival after intended radical surgery (group2), (3) disease specific-survival in patients with unresectable disease or residual tumor after primary resection (group3).

RESULTS

In total, 615 patients, with a mean age (SD) 65 ± 11 years were included. Median (IQR) Ki-67 index was 4 (2-7)%. Median disease-specific survival in group1 was 130 months. Median RFS in group2 was 138 months with 5- and 10-year RFS rates of 72% and 59% with age, plasma chromogranin A (p-CgA) and Ki-67 index as prognostic factors. The ten year disease-specific survival rate in group2 was 86%. The median disease-specific survival in group3 was 85 months with age, Ki-67 index, p-CgA and primary tumor resection as prognostic factors. When proliferation was expressed by WHO grade, no difference was observed between G1 vs. G2 for any of the primary outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrence rates remained high 5-10 years after surgery (group2) supporting long-term follow-up. Median disease-specific survival in patient with unresectable disease (group3) was 7 years, with a favorable impact of primary tumor resection. Our data does not support the current grading system since no significant prognostic information was detected in G1 vs. G2 tumors.

A novel nomogram and risk stratification system predicting the cancer-specific survival of patients with gastric neuroendocrine carcinoma: a study based on SEER database and external validation

BACKGROUND

Gastric neuroendocrine carcinoma (GNEC) is a rare histology of gastric cancer. The retrospective study was designed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of postoperative GNEC patients.

METHODS

Data for 28 patients from the Hangzhou TCM Hospital were identified as the external validation cohort. A total of 1493 patients were included in the SEER database and randomly assigned to the training group (1045 patients) and internal validation group (448 patients). The nomogram was constructed using the findings of univariate and multivariate Cox regression studies. The model was evaluated by consistency index (C-index), calibration plots, and clinical net benefit. Finally, the effect between the nomogram and AJCC staging system was compared by net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

Age, gender, grade, T stage, N stage, metastasis, primary site, tumor size, RNE, and chemotherapy were incorporated in the nomogram. The C-indexes were 0.792 and 0.782 in the training and internal verification sets. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS predicted by the nomogram and actual measurements had good agreement in calibration plots. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year NRI were 0.21, 0.29, and 0.37, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year IDI values were 0.10, 0.12, and 0.13 (P < 0.001), respectively. In 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS prediction using DCA curves, the nomogram outperformed the AJCC staging system. The nomogram performed well in both the internal and external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS for GNEC patients after surgical resection. This well-performing model could help doctors enhance the treatment plan.

Consideration of quality-of-life in the treatment decision-making for patients with advanced gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

INTRODUCTION

Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs) are a complex and heterogenous family of solid malignancies that originate from neuroendocrine tissue in the gastrointestinal tract or pancreas. Most patients diagnosed with GEP-NETs present with advanced or metastatic disease, and quality of life (QoL) is often an important priority when selecting treatments for these patients. Patients with advanced GEP-NETs often experience a substantial and persistent symptom burden that undermines their QoL. Addressing a patient's individual symptoms through judicious selection of treatment may improve QoL.

AREAS COVERED

The objectives of this narrative review are to summarize the impact of advanced GEP-NETs on patient QoL, assess the potential value of current treatments for maintaining or improving patient QoL, and offer a clinical framework for how these QoL data can be translated to inform clinical decision-making for patients with advanced GEP-NETs.

EXPERT OPINION

Patients with advanced GEP-NETs experience a significant and persistent symptom burden that impacts their daily lifestyle, activities, work life, and financial health, leading to erosion of their QoL. Ongoing and future studies incorporating longitudinal QoL assessments and head-to-head treatment evaluations will further inform the incorporation of QoL into clinical decision-making.

Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Periampullary Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A SEER Database Analysis

(1) Background: Periampullary neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are rare tumors that lack a prognostic prediction model. We aimed to design comprehensive and effective nomograms to predict prognosis; (2) Methods: Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for the construction of the nomograms. The discrimination and calibration of the nomograms were carried out using calibration plots, concordance indices (C-indices), and area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (time-dependent AUCs). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to compare the clinical applicability of the nomograms, TNM (Tumor- Node-Metastasis) stage, and SEER stage; (3) Results: The independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with periampullary NENs included age, tumor size, histology, differentiation, N stage, M stage, and surgery, which were used to construct the nomograms. The calibration curves and C-indices showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted and actual observed survival rates. The AUCs displayed good calibration and acceptable discrimination of the nomograms. Additionally, the DCA curves indicated that the nomograms showed better clinical applicability; (4) Conclusions: We developed and validated nomogram prognostic models for patients with periampullary NENs. The nomograms provided insightful and applicable tools to evaluate prognosis.

Establishment and validation of a clinicopathological prognosis model of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine carcinomas

Background

Gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine carcinomas (GEP-NECs) are a rare, highly malignant subset of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs). However, how to predict the prognosis of GEP-NECs by clinical features is still under study. This study aims to establish and validate a nomogram model of overall survival (OS) in patients with GEP-NECs for predicting their prognosis.

Methods

We selected patients diagnosed with GEP-NECs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and two Chinese hospitals. After randomization, we divided the data in the SEER database into the train cohort and the test cohort at a ratio of 7:3 and used the Chinese cohort as the validation cohort. The Cox univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to incorporate statistically significant variables into the nomogram model. We then established a nomogram and validated it by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the curve (AUC), and the decision curve analysis (DCA) curve.

Results

We calculated the nomogram C-index as 0.797 with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 0.783–0.815 in the train cohort, 0.816 (95% CI: 0.794–0.833) in the test cohort and 0.801 (95% CI: 0.784–0.827) in the validation cohort. Then, we plotted the calibration curves and ROC curves, and AUCs were obtained to verify the specificity and sensitivity of the model, with 1-, 3- and 5-year AUCs of 0.776, 0.768, and 0.770, respectively, in the train cohort; 0.794, 0.808, and 0.799 in the test cohort; 0.922, 0.925, and 0.947 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve and DCA curves also indicated that this nomogram model had good clinical benefits.

Conclusions

We established the OS nomogram model of GEP-NEC patients, including variables of age, race, sex, tumor site, tumor grade, and TNM stage. This model has good fitting, high sensitivity and specificity, and good clinical benefits.

Radical Resection in Entero-Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: Recurrence-Free Survival Rate and Definition of a Risk Score for Recurrence

BACKGROUND

Surgery with radical intent is the only potentially curative option for entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (EP-NETs) but many patients develop recurrence even after many years. The subset of patients at high risk of disease recurrence has not been clearly defined to date.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this retrospective study was to define, in a series of completely resected EP-NETs, the recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate and a risk score for disease recurrence.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective analysis of sporadic pancreatic NETs (PanNETs) or small intestine NETs (SiNETs) [G1/G2] that underwent R0/R1 surgery (years 2000-2016) with at least a 24-month follow-up. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and risk factor analysis was performed using the Cox regression model.

RESULTS

Overall, 441 patients (224 PanNETs and 217 SiNETs) were included, with a median Ki67 of 2% in tumor tissue and 8.2% stage IV disease. Median RFS was 101 months (5-year rate 67.9%). The derived prognostic score defined by multivariable analysis included prognostic parameters, such as TNM stage, lymph node ratio, margin status, and grading. The score distinguished three risk categories with a significantly different RFS (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 30% of patients with EP-NETs recurred within 5 years after radical surgery. Risk factors for recurrence were disease stage, lymph node ratio, margin status, and grading. The definition of risk categories may help in selecting patients who might benefit from adjuvant treatments and more intensive follow-up programs.

Validated Risk-Score Model Predicting Lymph Node Metastases in Patients with Non-Functional Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

BACKGROUND

The incidence of, and factors associated with, lymph node metastasis (LN+) in non-functional gastroenteropancreatic (GEP) neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are not well characterized.

METHODS

Patients were identified from the 2010-2015 National Cancer Database who underwent surgical resection with lymphadenectomy for clinical stage I-III non-functional GEP NETs. Among a randomly selected training subset of 75% of the study population, variables associated with LN+ were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis, and these variables were used to create a risk-score model for LN+, which was internally validated among the remaining 25% of the cohort.

RESULTS

Of 12,228 patients evaluated, 6,902 (56.4%) had LN+. Among the training set, variables associated with LN+ included age (70 years of age or older: odds ratio [OR] 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.24; ref: less than 70 years), tumor location (stomach: OR 3.72, 95% CI 2.94-4.71; small intestine: OR 19.60, 95% CI 17.31-22.19; ref: pancreas), tumor grade (moderately differentiated: OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.30-1.67; poorly differentiated/anaplastic: OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.21-1.95; ref: well-differentiated), tumor size (2-4 cm: OR 2.40, 95% CI 2.13-2.70; >4 cm: OR 5.25, 95% CI 4.47-6.17; ref: <2 cm), and lymphovascular invasion (OR 5.62, 95% CI 5.08-6.21; ref: no lymphovascular invasion). After internal validation, a risk-score model for LN+ using these variables was developed composed of low- (N = 2,779), intermediate- (N = 2,598), high- (N = 3,433), and very-high-risk (N = 3,418) groups; within each group the rate of LN+ was 8.7%, 48.6%, 64.9%, and 92.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This developed risk-score model, including both patient and tumor variables, can be used to calculate the risk for LN metastases in patients with GEP NETs.

Patterns of Lymph Node Metastasis and Optimal Surgical Strategy in Small (≤20 mm) Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

BACKGROUND

Regional lymph node metastasis (LNM) is crucial for planning additional lymphadenectomy, and is directly correlated with poor prognosis in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs). However, the patterns of LNM for small (≤20 mm) GEP-NETs remain unclear. This population-based study aimed at evaluating LNM patterns and identifying optimal surgical strategies from the standpoint of lymph node dissemination.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study retrieved data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries database for 17,308 patients diagnosed as having localized well-differentiated GEP-NETs ≤ 20 mm between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2017. The patterns of LNM were characterized in 6,622 patients who underwent extended resection for adequate lymph node harvest.

RESULTS

Of 6,622 patients with localized small GEP-NETs in the current study, 2,380 (36%) presented with LNM after regional lymphadenectomy. Nodal involvement was observed in approximately 7.4%, 49.1%, 13.6%, 53.7%, 13.8%, 7.8%, and 15.4% of gastric (g-), small intestinal (si-), appendiceal (a-), colonic (c-), rectal (r-), non-functional pancreatic (nfp-), and functional pancreatic (fp-) NETs ≤ 20 mm. Patients with younger age, larger tumor size, and muscularis invasion were more likely to present with LNM. Additional lymphadenectomy conferred a significant survival advantage in NETs (≤10 mm: HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.33-0.66; p < 0.001; 11-20 mm: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.85; p = 0.008) and fp-NETs ≤ 20 mm (HR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.02-0.36; p = 0.001), as well as g-NETs (HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16-0.96; p = 0.041) and c-NETs of 11-20 mm (HR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.01-0.48; p = 0.007). Survival benefits of additional lymphadenectomy were not found in a-NETs, r-NETs, and nfp-NETs with a small size.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the increased risk for nodal metastasis, primary tumor resection with regional lymphadenectomy is a potential optimal surgical strategy for si-NETs and fp-NETs ≤ 20 mm, as well as g-NETs and c-NETs of 11-20 mm. Local resection is an appropriate and reliable surgical approach for a-NETs, r-NETs, and nfp-NETs ≤ 20 mm.

International Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Recurrence after Resection of Grade 1 and 2 Nonfunctioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

BACKGROUND

Despite the low recurrence rate of resected nonfunctional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-pNETs), nearly all patients undergo long-term surveillance. A prediction model for recurrence may help select patients for less intensive surveillance or identify patients for adjuvant therapy. The objective of this study was to assess the external validity of a recently published model predicting recurrence within 5 years after surgery for NF-pNET in an international cohort. This prediction model includes tumor grade, lymph node status and perineural invasion as predictors.

METHODS

Retrospectively, data were collected from 7 international referral centers on patients who underwent resection for a grade 1-2 NF-pNET between 1992 and 2018. Model performance was evaluated by calibration statistics, Harrel's C-statistic, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS). A sub-analysis was performed in pNETs >2 cm. The model was improved to stratify patients into 3 risk groups (low, medium, high) for recurrence.

RESULTS

Overall, 342 patients were included in the validation cohort with a 5-year RFS of 83% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78-88%). Fifty-eight patients (17%) developed a recurrence. Calibration showed an intercept of 0 and a slope of 0.74. The C-statistic was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.70-0.83), and the AUC for the prediction of 5-year RFS was 0.74. The prediction model had a better performance in tumors >2 cm (C-statistic 0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

External validity of this prediction model for recurrence after curative surgery for grade 1-2 NF-pNET showed accurate overall performance using 3 easily accessible parameters. This model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com.

A Modified T-stage Classification for Gastric Neuroendocrine Tumors

BACKGROUND

The eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging manual's TNM staging classification for gastric neuroendocrine tumors has been shown to have poor prognostic discriminability. The aim of present study was to propose a modified T-stage classification, and externally validate its performance in a separate population data registry.

METHODS

A modified T-stage classification with tumor size and extent of tumor invasion was generated from the National Cancer Database between 2004 and 2014 (n = 1249). External validation was performed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry between 1973 and 2013 (n = 539).

RESULTS

In the National Cancer Database population, using the AJCC T-stage classification, the 5-y survival rates were 85.7%, 80.8%, 64.5%, and 46.1% in T1, T2, T3, and T4 patients respectively (P < 0.001). These rates were more contrasting with the modified T-stage (mT) classification at 87.0%, 78.2%, 59.0%, and 40.3% respectively (P < 0.001). When patients within each of the AJCC T stages were stratified by mT stages, significant survival heterogeneity was observed within each of the AJCC T2 to T4 stages (P < 0.01). Conversely, when mT stages were stratified by AJCC T stage, no survival difference was observed in any of the mT stages (P > 0.05). The same analyses were performed using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, and all the observed results were validated.

CONCLUSION

The current AJCC T stage classification categorizes patients into groups with heterogenous prognosis, thus failing to serve as an effective staging tool. A modified T-stage classification demonstrated significantly improved stratification for patients with gastric neuroendocrine tumors.

Patterns and predictors of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor prognosis: Are no two leaves alike?

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) are heterogeneous; thus, individual prognostic prediction is important. Clinicopathological features, like TNM stage, grade, and differentiation, are independent clinical predictors. However, single predictors are insufficient, as patients sharing similar clinicopathological features usually show distinct prognoses. Accordingly, novel nomograms and risk stratifications have been developed for more accurate PanNET prognostic prediction. Moreover, the exploration of molecular mechanisms has identified novel prognostic predictors for PanNET. Multi-analyte assays of molecular biomarkers provide a deeper understanding of PanNET features; however, the priority, and the optimal combination of classic and novel predictors for PanNET prognosis prediction remain unclear. In this review, we summarized the patterns and predictors of PanNET prognosis and discussed their clinical utility; we emphasized that PanNET at different stages have different superior predictor, and that multi-analyte assays are more sensitive than mono-analyte biomarkers. Therefore, combined biomarkers improve the accuracy of surveillance and optimize decision-making in clinical practice.

Frequency of Neuroendocrine Tumor Studies: Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation and HJ-Biplot Statistical Methods

Background: Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are severe and relatively rare and may affect any organ of the human body. The prevalence of NETs has increased in recent years; however, there seem to be more data on particular types, even though, despite the efforts of different guidelines, there is no consensus on how to identify different types of NETs. In this review, we investigated the countries that published the most articles about NETs, the most frequent organs affected, and the most common related topics. Methods: This work used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) method to identify and interpret scientific information in relation to the categories in a set of documents. The HJ-Biplot method was also used to determine the relationship between the analyzed topics, by taking into consideration the years under study. Results: In this study, a literature review was conducted, from which a total of 7658 abstracts of scientific articles published between 1981 and 2020 were extracted. The United States, Germany, United Kingdom, France, and Italy published the majority of studies on NETs, of which pancreatic tumors were the most studied. The five most frequent topics were t_21 (clinical benefit), t_11 (pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors), t_13 (patients one year after treatment), t_17 (prognosis of survival before and after resection), and t_3 (markers for carcinomas). Finally, the results were put through a two-way multivariate analysis (HJ-Biplot), which generated a new interpretation: we grouped topics by year and discovered which NETs were the most relevant for which years. Conclusions: The most frequent topics found in our review highlighted the severity of NETs: patients have a poor prognosis of survival and a high probability of tumor recurrence.

Identifying Risk Factors and Patterns for Early Recurrence of Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Multi-Institutional Study

Simple Summary

Approximately 30% of patients with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pNET) will develop metastases. Curative-intent treatment largely involves resection. Identifying patients with early recurrence (ER) following resection might help tailor adjuvant therapies and the surveillance intensity. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine an evidence-based cut-off value for ER, and to explore risk factors associated with ER. ER was identified 18 months after surgery. Tumor size (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.37, p = 0.007) and positive lymph nodes (OR 4.69, 95%CI 1.41–15.58, p = 0.01) were independently associated with ER. Patients with ER had lower post-recurrence free survival and overall survival than patients with late recurrence. These data support intensive follow-up shortly after surgery, and adjuvant therapy may help improve survival in pNET patients with ER after surgery.

Abstract

Background: Identifying patients at risk for early recurrence (ER) following resection for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) might help to tailor adjuvant therapies and surveillance intensity in the post-operative setting. Methods: Patients undergoing surgical resection for pNETs between 1998–2018 were identified using a multi-institutional database. Using a minimum p-value approach, optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival (RFS) was determined based on the difference in post-recurrence survival (PRS). Risk factors for early recurrence were identified. Results: Among 807 patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pNETs, the optimal length of RFS to define ER was identified at 18 months (lowest p-value of 0.019). Median RFS was 11.0 months (95% 8.5–12.60) among ER patients (n = 49) versus 41.0 months (95% CI: 35.0–45.9) among non-ER patients (n = 77). Median PRS was worse among ER patients compared with non-ER patients (42.6 months vs. 81.5 months, p = 0.04). On multivariable analysis, tumor size (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05–1.37, p = 0.007) and positive lymph nodes (OR: 4.69, 95% CI: 1.41–15.58, p = 0.01) were independently associated with ER. Conclusion: An evidence-based cut-off value for ER after surgery for pNET was defined at 18 months. These data emphasized the importance of close follow-up in the first two years after surgery.

Watchful waiting for small non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours: nationwide prospective cohort study (PANDORA)

This prospective nationwide cohort study examined the feasibility of a watchful-waiting protocol for non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (NF-pNET) of 2 cm or smaller. In total, 8 of 76 patients (11 per cent) with a NF-pNET no larger than 2 cm showed significant tumour progression (more than 0.5 cm/year) during 17 months of follow-up, of whom two opted for resection. No patient developed metastases. Quality of life was poorer than in the reference population. Watchful waiting seems a safe alternative to upfront surgery in patients with a NF-pNET no larger than 2 cm, although longer follow-up is necessary.

Indications and outcomes of enucleation versus formal pancreatectomy for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

BACKGROUND

Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) or distal pancreatectomy (DP) are common procedures for patients with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pNET). Nevertheless, certain patients may benefit from a pancreas-preserving resection such as enucleation (EN). The aim of this study was to define the indications and differences in long-term outcomes among patients undergoing EN and PD/DP.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection of a pNET between 1992 and 2016 were identified. Indications and outcomes were evaluated, and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed to compare long-term outcomes between patients who underwent EN versus PD/DP.

RESULTS

Among 1034 patients, 143 (13.8%) underwent EN, 304 (29.4%) PD, and 587 (56.8%) DP. Indications for EN were small size (1.5 cm, IQR:1.0-1.9), functional tumors (58.0%) that were mainly insulinomas (51.7%). After PSM (n = 109 per group), incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) grade B/C was higher after EN (24.5%) compared with PD/DP (14.0%) (p = 0.049). Median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was comparable among patients who underwent EN (47 months, 95% CI:23-71) versus PD/DP (37 months, 95% CI: 33-47, p = 0.480).

CONCLUSION

Comparable long-term outcomes were noted among patients who underwent EN versus PD/DP for pNET. The incidence of clinically significant POPF was higher after EN.

Predicting the Survival Probability of Neuroendocrine Tumor Populations: Developing and Evaluating a New Predictive Nomogram

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to develop and initially validate a nomogram model in order to predict the 3-year and 5-year survival rates of neuroendocrine tumor patients.

Methods

Accordingly, 348 neuroendocrine tumor patients were enrolled as study objects, of which 244 (70%) patients were included in the training set to establish the nomogram model, while 104 (30%) patients were included in the validation set to verify the robustness of the model. First, the variables related to the survival rate were determined by univariable analysis. In addition, variables that were sufficiently significant were selected for constructing the nomogram model. Furthermore, the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and calibration curve analysis were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed nomogram model. The survival analysis was then used to evaluate the return to survival probability as well as the indicators of constructing the nomogram model.

Results

According to the multivariable analysis, lymphatic metastasis, international normalized ratio (INR), prothrombin time (PT), tumor differentiation, and the number of tumor metastases were found to be independent predictors of survival rate. Moreover, the C-index results demonstrated that the model was robust in both the training set (0.891) and validation set (0.804). In addition, the ROC results further verified the robustness of the model either in the training set (AUC = 0.823) or training set (AUC = 0.768). Furthermore, the calibration curve results showed that the model can be used to predict the 3-year and 5-year survival probability of neuroendocrine tumor patients. Meaningfully, five variables were found: lymphatic metastasis (p = 0.0095), international standardized ratio (p = 0.024), prothrombin time (p = 0.0036), tumor differentiation (p = 0.0026), and the number of tumor metastases (p = 0.00096), which were all significantly related to the 3-year and 5-year survival probability of neuroendocrine tumor patients.

Conclusion

In summary, a nomogram model was constructed in this study based on five variables (lymphatic metastasis, international normalized ratio (INR), prothrombin time (PT), tumor differentiation, and number of tumor metastases), which was shown to predict the survival probability of patients with neuroendocrine tumors. Additionally, the proposed nomogram exhibited good ability in predicting survival probability, which may be easily adopted for clinical use.

Prognostic Factors in Curative Resected Locoregional Small Intestine Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Small intestinal neuroendocrine neoplasms (SI-NEN) are rare, and only about 40% of patients are diagnosed without distant metastases. Aim of the study was to identify prognostic factors in patients with potentially curative resected locoregional SI-NEN.

METHODS

Patients with curative resected locoregional SI-NEN (ENETS stages I-III) were retrieved from a prospective data base. Demographic, surgical and pathological data of patients with and without disease recurrence were retrospectively analyzed using univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

In a 20-year period, 65 of 203 (32%) patients with SI-NEN were operated for stages I-III disease. Thirty-eight (58.5%) patients were men, and the median age at surgery was 59 (range 37-87) years. After median follow-up of 65 months, 14 patients experienced disease relapse median 28.5 (range 6-122) months after initial surgery, of which 2 died due to their disease. Multivariate analysis revealed age ≥ 60 years (HR = 6.41, 95% CI 1.38-29.67, p = 0.017), tumor size ≥ 2 cm (HR = 26.54, 95% CI 4.46-157.62, p < 0.001), lymph node ratio > 0.5 (HR 7.18, 95% CI 1.74-29.74, p = 0.007) and multifocal tumor growth (HR = 6.98, 95% CI 1.66-29.39, p = 0.008) as independent negative prognostic factors and right hemicolectomy compared to segmental small bowel resection (HR = 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.24, p < 0.001) as independent protector against recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Patients with locoregional SI-NEN with an age ≥ 60 years, tumor size ≥ 2 cm, lymph node ratio > 0.5 and multiple small bowel tumor foci have an increased risk for recurrence and might benefit from adjuvant treatment. In contrast, right hemicolectomy of ileal SI-NEN seems to reduce the risk of recurrence.

Clinical relevance of performing endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle biopsy for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors less than 2 cm

BACKGROUND

We sought to define the diagnostic yield and concordance rates between endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-fine-needle aspiration (FNA) and surgical pathology specimen following resection of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) less than 2 cm.

METHODS

Patients with a pNET less than 2 cm who underwent EUS-FNA were identified using a multi-institutional international database. Tumor differentiation, and Ki-67 index, as determined through EUS-FNA were examined and concordance rates between EUS-FNA and the surgical pathology were assessed.

RESULTS

Among 628 patients with a pNET less than 2 cm, 57.2% of patients had an EUS-FNA performed. Patients who underwent EUS had slightly smaller size tumors (1.3 vs 1.4 cm), and the pNETs were less likely to be functional (15.3% vs 26.8%) or symptomatic (48.5% vs 56.5%) (both P < .05). Among 314 patients with a pNET less than 2 cm who had an EUS-FNA performed at the time of diagnosis, 243 (73.2%) had the diagnosis confirmed by preoperative EUS-FNA. Tumor differentiation and Ki-67 could be determined by EUS-FNA in only 26.4% and 20.1% of patients, respectively. Concordance rate between EUS-FNA and pathology was high relative to tumor differentiation (92.7%) and Ki-67 (81.0%).

CONCLUSION

Tumor differentiation and Ki-67 index could be determined by EUS-FNA in only 26.4% and 20.1% of cases, respectively. Further studies should focus on EUS techniques to optimize diagnostic yield and cell extraction in the preoperative setting.

Clinical and Molecular Risk Factors for Recurrence Following Radical Surgery of Well-Differentiated Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

Well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors are increasingly diagnosed neoplasms. For localized disease, surgery is the first-line therapy and is curative in most cases. However, although recurrence is a rare event, it can still occur up to 10 years from surgery, worsening the prognosis. Many clinical and pathological factors have been associated with recurrence; however, it is currently unclear how to accurately discern patients at risk for relapse of disease from those that should be considered cured. In this review, we focus on clinical, pathological, and molecular factors associated with recurrence and discuss available prediction tools to assess the risk of recurrence following surgery.

Use of Machine Learning for Prediction of Patient Risk of Postoperative Complications After Liver, Pancreatic, and Colorectal Surgery

BACKGROUND

Surgical resection is the only potentially curative treatment for patients with colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers. Although these procedures are performed with low mortality, rates of complications remain relatively high following hepatopancreatic and colorectal surgery.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was utilized to identify patients undergoing liver, pancreatic and colorectal surgery from 2014 to 2016. Decision tree models were utilized to predict the occurrence of any complication, as well as specific complications. To assess the variability of the performance of the classification trees, bootstrapping was performed on 50% of the sample.

RESULTS

Algorithms were derived from a total of 15,657 patients who met inclusion criteria. The algorithm had a good predictive ability for the occurrence of any complication, with a C-statistic of 0.74, outperforming the ASA (C-statistic 0.58) and ACS-Surgical Risk Calculator (C-statistic 0.71). The algorithm was able to predict with high accuracy thirteen out of the seventeen complications analyzed. The best performance was in the prediction of stroke (C-statistic 0.98), followed by wound dehiscence, cardiac arrest, and progressive renal failure (all C-statistic 0.96). The algorithm had a good predictive ability for superficial SSI (C-statistic 0.76), organ space SSI (C-statistic 0.76), sepsis (C-statistic 0.79), and bleeding requiring transfusion (C-statistic 0.79).

CONCLUSION

Machine learning was used to develop an algorithm that accurately predicted patient risk of developing complications following liver, pancreatic, or colorectal surgery. The algorithm had very good predictive ability to predict specific complications and demonstrated superiority over other established methods.

Textbook Outcomes Among Medicare Patients Undergoing Hepatopancreatic Surgery

OBJECTIVE

To define and test "Textbook Outcome" (TO)-a composite measure for healthcare quality-among Medicare patients undergoing hepatopancreatic resections. Hospital variation in TO and Medicare payments were analyzed.

BACKGROUND

Composite measures of quality may be superior to individual measures for the analysis of hospital performance.

METHODS

The Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) Inpatient Files were reviewed to identify Medicare patients who underwent pancreatic and liver procedures between 2013 and 2015. TO was defined as: no postoperative surgical complications, no prolonged length of hospital stay, no readmission ≤ 90 days after discharge, and no postoperative mortality ≤ 90 days after surgery. Medicare payments were compared among patients who achieved TO versus patients who did not. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate patient factors associated with TO. A nomogram to predict probability of TO was developed and validated.

RESULTS

TO was achieved in 44% (n = 5919) of 13,467 patients undergoing hepatopancreatic surgery. Adjusted TO rates at the hospital level varied from 11.1% to 69.6% for pancreatic procedures and from 16.6% to 78.7% for liver procedures. Prolonged length of hospital stay represented the major obstacle to achieve TO. Average Medicare payments were substantially higher among patients who did not have a TO. Factors associated with TO on multivariable analysis were age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, previous hospital admissions, procedure type, and surgical approach (all P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Less than one-half of Medicare patients achieved a TO following hepatopancreatic procedures with a wide variation in the rates of TO among hospitals. There was a discrepancy in Medicare payments for patients who achieved a TO versus patients who did not. TO could be useful for the public reporting of patient level hospital performance and hospital variation.

Prognostic factors for the outcome of nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in MEN1: a systematic review of literature

Metastatic duodenopancreatic neuro-endocrine tumors (dpNETs) are the most important disease-related cause of death in patients with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1). Nonfunctioning pNETs (NF-pNETs) are highly prevalent in MEN1 and clinically heterogeneous. Therefore, management is controversial. Data on prognostic factors for risk stratification are limited. This systematic review aims to establish the current state of evidence regarding prognostic factors in MEN1-related NF-pNETs. We systematically searched four databases for studies assessing prognostic value of any factor on NF-pNET progression, development of distant metastases, and/or overall survival. In- and exclusion, critical appraisal and data-extraction were performed independently by two authors according to pre-defined criteria. Thirteen studies (370 unique patients) were included. Prognostic factors investigated were tumor size, timing of surgical resection, WHO grade, methylation, p27/p18 expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC), ARX/PDX1 IHC and alternative lengthening of telomeres. Results were complemented with evidence from studies in MEN1-related pNET for which data could not be separately extracted for NF-pNET and data from sporadic NF-pNET. We found that the most important prognostic factors used in clinical decision making in MEN1-related NF-pNETs are tumor size and grade. NF-pNETs <2 cm may be managed with watchful waiting, while surgical resection is advised for NF-pNETs ≥2 cm. Grade 2 NF-pNETs should be considered high risk. The most promising and MEN1-relevant avenues of prognostic research are multi-analyte circulating biomarkers, tissue-based molecular factors and imaging-based prognostication. Multi-institutional collaboration between clinical, translation and basic scientists with uniform data and biospecimen collection in prospective cohorts should advance the field.

Prognostic importance of lymph node yield after curative resection of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of lymph nodes (LNs) metastases and the optimum number of LN yield in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP NETs) undergoing curative resection is still debatable. Many studies have demonstrated that cure rate for patients with GEP NETs can be improved by the resection of the primary tumour and regional lymphadenectomy

AIM

To evaluate the effect of lymph node (LN) status and yield on relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with resected GEP NETs.

METHODS

Data on patients who underwent curative resection for GEP NETs between January 2002 and March 2017 were analysed retrospectively. Grade 3 tumours (Ki67 > 20%) were excluded. Univariate Cox proportional hazard models were computed for RFS and OS and assessed alongside cut-point analysis to distinguish a suitable binary categorisation of total LNs retrieved associated with RFS.

RESULTS

A total of 217 patients were included in the study. The median age was 59 years (21-97 years) and 51% (n = 111) were male. Primary tumour sites were small bowel (42%), pancreas (25%), appendix (18%), rectum (7%), colon (3%), gastric (2%), others (2%). Median follow up times for all patients were 41 mo (95%CI: 36-51) and 71 mo (95%CI: 63–76) for RFS and OS respectively; 50 relapses and 35 deaths were reported. LNs were retrieved in 151 patients. Eight or more LNs were harvested in 106 patients and LN positivity reported in 114 patients. Three or more positive LNs were detected in 62 cases. The result of univariate analysis suggested perineural invasion (P = 0.0023), LN positivity (P = 0.033), LN retrieval of ≥ 8 (P = 0.047) and localisation (P = 0.0049) have a statistically significant association with shorter RFS, but there was no effect of LN ratio on RFS: P = 0.1 or OS: P = 0.75. Tumour necrosis (P = 0.021) and perineural invasion (P = 0.016) were the only two variables significantly associated with worse OS. In the final multivariable analysis, localisation (pancreas HR = 27.33, P = 0.006, small bowel HR = 32.44, P = 0.005), and retrieval of ≥ 8 LNs (HR = 2.7, P = 0.036) were independent prognostic factors for worse RFS.

CONCLUSION

An outcome-oriented approach to cut-point analysis can suggest a minimum number of adequate LNs to be harvested in patients with GEP NETs undergoing curative surgery. Removal of ≥ 8 LNs is associated with increased risk of relapse, which could be due to high rates of LN positivity at the time of surgery. Given that localisation had a significant association with RFS, a prospective multicentre study is warranted with a clear direction on recommended surgical practice and follow-up guidance for GEP NETs.

Accuracy of Grading in Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms and Effect on Survival Estimates: An Institutional Experience

BACKGROUND

Accurate grading of neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) is crucial for proper assessment of prognosis. Estimation of the proliferative indices, if not performed properly, is largely erroneous due to significant intratumoral heterogeneity. We sought to establish the degree of error in the grading of a cohort of curatively resected pancreatic NENs (PanNENs) and the theoretical impact of that in a larger cohort of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) patients.

METHODS

A retrospective query of an institutional surgical database was performed from 2000 to 2018 to identify optimally resected PanNENs, which were reviewed by two gastrointestinal pathologists and regraded according to the WHO 2017 classification. Overall survival and recurrence-free survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method for original and new grading systems, respectively and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effect of the interested variables, including new grading systems.

RESULTS

A total of 176 cases were identified. After regrading, 17/64 (26.6%) G1 neoplasms were classified as G2 and 12/95 (12.6%) G2 neoplasms were classified as G1, while 1/11 (9.1%) G3 neoplasms were classified as G2. Our expert gastrointestinal pathologists agreed on 97% of reclassified cases by blind review. Application of the G1/G2 misclassification errors on various groups, including PanNENs, in a SEER database of 1385 patients rendered the reported survival differences nonsignificant (1000 repetitions; p = 0.063, 95% confidence interval 0.056-0.070).

CONCLUSIONS

Mischaracterization of grade is common in optimally resected PanNENs but is eliminated with proper training and adherence to guidelines. The discrepancy rates can cast doubt on the generally accepted survival differences between G1 and G2 patients, as surmised by large database analyses.

Resection of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: defining patterns and time course of recurrence

BACKGROUND

To define recurrence patterns and time course, as well as risk factors associated with recurrence following curative resection of pNETs.

METHOD

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pNET between 1997 and 2016 were identified from the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group. Data on baseline and tumor-specific characteristics, overall survival (OS), timing and first-site of recurrence, predictors and recurrence management were analyzed.

RESULTS

Among 1020 patients, 154 (15.1%) patients developed recurrence. Among patients who experienced recurrence, 76 (49.4%) had liver-only recurrence, while 35 (22.7%) had pancreas-only recurrence. The proportion of liver-only recurrence increased from 54.3% within one-year after surgery to 61.5% from four-to-six years after surgery; whereas the proportion of pancreas-only recurrence decreased from 26.1% to 7.7% over these time periods. While liver-only recurrence was associated with tumor characteristics, pancreas-only recurrence was only associated with surgical margin status. Patients undergoing curative resection of recurrence had comparable OS with patients who had no recurrence (median OS, pancreas-only recurrence, 133.9 months; liver-only recurrence, not attained; no recurrence, 143.0 months, p = 0.499) CONCLUSIONS: Different recurrence patterns and timing course, as well as risk factors suggest biological heterogeneity of pNET recurrence. A personalized approach to postoperative surveillance and treatment of recurrence disease should be considered.

Trends of incidence and prognosis of gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms: a study based on SEER and our multicenter research

BACKGROUND

To investigate the recent epidemiological trends of gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (GNENs) and establish a new tool to estimate the prognosis of gastric neuroendocrine carcinoma (GNEC) and gastric neuroendocrine tumor (GNET).

METHODS

Nomograms were established based on a retrospective study on patients diagnosed with GNENs from 1975 to 2016 in Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. External validation was performed among 246 GNENs patients in Jiangsu province to verify the discrimination and calibration of the nomograms.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted incidence of GNENs has increased from 0.309 to 6.149 per 1,000,000 persons in the past 4 decades. Multivariate analysis indicated independent prognostic factors for both GNEC and GNET including age, distant metastasis and surgical intervention (P < 0.05). In addition, T, N staging and grade were significantly associated with survival of GNEC, while size was a predictor for GNET (P < 0.05). The C-indexes of the nomograms were 0.840 for GNEC and 0.718 for GNET, which were higher than those of the 8th AJCC staging system (0.773 and 0.599). Excellent discrimination was observed in the validation cohorts (C-index of nomogram vs AJCC staging for GNEC: 0.743 vs 0.714; GNET: 0.945 vs 0.927). Survival rates predicted by nomograms were close to the actual survival rates in the calibration plots in both training and validation sets.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of the GNENs is increasing steadily in the past 40 years. We established more excellent nomograms to predict the prognosis of GNENs than traditional staging system, helping clinicians to make tailored decisions.

A prognostic nomogram in patients with distant metastasis of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a population-based study

Aim: Prognostic factors in patients with distant metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) remain uncertain. The purpose of our study is to establish a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in patients with metastatic PNETs. Methods: A total of 878 patients diagnosed with PNETs in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 2004 and 2016 were retrospectively identified. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with log-rank test was used to analyze survival outcomes. The nomogram was established after a univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Results: The independent prognostic variables, including age, tumor grade and primary site surgery were applied to develop a nomogram. The original concordance index was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.751-0.795), and the bias-corrected concordance index was 0.769 (95% CI: 0.748-0.791). The internal calibration curves showed well consistency and veracity in predicting cancer-specific survival probabilities. Conclusion: A nomogram was constructed and verified to predict survival outcomes in patients with distant-stage PNETs.

Prognostic and predictive factors on overall survival and surgical outcomes in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: recent advances and controversies

Introduction: Recent advances in diagnostic modalities and therapeutic agents have raised the importance of prognostic factors in predicting overall survival, as well as predictive factors for surgical outcomes, in tailoring therapeutic strategies of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (panNENs).Areas covered: Numerous recent studies of panNEN patients report the prognostic values of a number of clinically related factors (clinical, laboratory, imaging, treatment-related factors), pathological factors (histological, classification, grading) and molecular factors on long-term survival. In addition, an increasing number of studies showed the usefulness of various factors, specifically biomarkers and molecular makers, in predicting recurrence and mortality related to surgical treatment. Recent findings (from the last 3 years) in each of these areas, as well as recent controversies, are reviewed.Expert commentary: The clinical importance of prognostic and predictive factors for panNENs is markedly increased for both overall outcome and post resection, as a result of recent advances in all aspects of the diagnosis, management and treatment of panNENs. Despite the proven prognostic utility of routinely used tumor grading/classification and staging systems, further studies are required to establish these novel prognostic factors to support their routine clinical use.

Multi-institutional Development and External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Recurrence After Curative Resection of Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

OBJECTIVE

To develop a nomogram estimating the probability of recurrence free at 5 years after resection for localized grade 1 (G1)/ grade 2 (G2) pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs).

BACKGROUND

Among patients undergoing resection of PanNETs, approximately 17% experience recurrence. It is not established which patients are at risk, with no consensus on optimal follow-up.

METHOD

A multi-institutional database of patients with G1/G2 PanNETs treated at 2 institutions was used to develop a nomogram estimating the rate of freedom from recurrence at 5 years after curative resection. A second cohort of patients from 3 additional institutions was used to validate the nomogram. Prognostic factors were assessed by univariate analysis using Cox regression model. The nomogram was internally validated using bootstrap resampling method and on the external cohort. Performance was assessed by concordance index (c-index) and a calibration curve.

RESULTS

The nomogram was constructed using a cohort of 632 patients. Overall, 68% of PanNETs were G1, the median follow-up was 51 months, and we observed 74 recurrences. Variables included in the nomogram were the number of positive nodes, tumor diameter, Ki-67, and vascular/perineural invasion. The model bias-corrected c-index from the internal validation was 0.85, which was higher than European Neuroendocrine Tumors Society/American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th staging scheme (c-index 0.76, P = <0.001). On the external cohort of 328 patients, the nomogram c-index was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.88).

CONCLUSION

Our externally validated nomogram predicts the probability of recurrence-free survival at 5 years after PanNETs curative resection, with improved accuracy over current staging systems. Estimating individual recurrence risk will guide the development of personalized surveillance programs after surgery.

A Multi-institutional International Analysis of Textbook Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Curative-Intent Resection of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Importance

Composite measures may be superior to individual measures for the analysis of hospital performance and quality of surgical care.

Objective

To determine the incidence of a so-called textbook outcome, a composite measure of the quality of surgical care, among patients undergoing curative-intent resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study involved an analysis of a multinational, multi-institutional cohort of patient from 15 major hepatobiliary centers in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia who underwent curative-intent resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between 1993 and 2015. Data analysis was conducted from April 2018 to May 2018.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hospital variation in the composite end point of textbook outcome, defined as negative margins, no perioperative transfusion, no postoperative surgical complications, no prolonged length of stay, no 30-day readmissions, and no 30-day mortality. Secondary end points were factors associated with achieving textbook outcomes.

Results

Among 687 patients (of whom 370 [53.9%] were men; median patient age, 61 [range, 18-86] years) undergoing curative-intent resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, a textbook outcome was achieved in 175 patients (25.5%). Being 60 years or younger (odds ratio [OR], 1.61 [95% CI, 1.04-2.49]; P = .03), absence of preoperative jaundice (OR, 4.40 [95% CI, 1.28-15.15]; P = .02), no neoadjuvant chemotherapy (OR, 2.57 [95% CI, 1.05-6.29]; P = .04), T1a/T1b-stage disease (OR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.01-2.49]; P = .049), N0 status (OR, 3.89 [95% CI, 1.77-8.54]; P = .001), and no bile duct resection (OR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.25-4.84]; P = .009) were independently associated with achieving a textbook outcome after resection. A prolonged length of stay had the greatest negative association with a textbook outcome. A nomogram to assess the probability of textbook outcome was developed and had good accuracy in both the training data set (area under the curve, 0.755) and validation data set (area under the curve, 0.763).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, while hepatic resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma was performed with less than 5% mortality in specialized centers, a textbook outcome was achieved in only approximately 26% of patients. A textbook outcome may be useful for the reporting of patient-level hospital performance and hospital variation, leading to quality improvement efforts after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

A novel online prognostic tool to predict long-term survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: The "metro-ticket" paradigm

BACKGROUND

The aim of the current study was to develop an online calculator to predict survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on the "metro-ticket" paradigm.

METHODS

Between 1990 and 2016, patients who underwent liver resection for ICC were identified in an international multi-institutional database. The final multivariable model of survival was used to develop an online prognostic calculator of survival.

RESULTS

Among 643 patients, actual 5-year overall survival (OS) after resection for ICC was 42.7%. On multivariable analysis, CA19-9 > 200 (hazard ratio (HR), 2.62; 95% CI, 2.01-3.42), sum of the number and largest tumor size >7 (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.46-2.42), N1 disease (HR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.98-4.16), R1 resection (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.21-2.46), poor/undifferentiated tumor grade (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.25-2.44), major vascular invasion (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89) were significantly associated with survival and were included in the online calculator. The predictive accuracy of the model was good to very good as the C-statistics to predict 5-year OS was 0.696 in the training dataset and 0.672 with bootstrapping resamples (n = 5000) in the test dataset.

CONCLUSION

A novel, online calculator was developed to estimate the 5-year survival probability for patients undergoing resection for ICC. This tool could help provide useful information to guide treatment decision-making and inform conversations about prognosis.

Margin status and long-term prognosis of primary pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor after curative resection: Results from the US Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group

BACKGROUND

The impact of margin status on resection of primary pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors has been poorly defined. The objectives of the present study were to determine the impact of margin status on long-term survival of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors after curative resection and evaluate the impact of reresection to obtain a microscopically negative margin.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors between 2000 and 2016 were identified at 8 hepatobiliary centers. Overall and recurrence-free survival were analyzed relative to surgical margin status using univariable and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Among 1,020 patients, 866 (84.9%) had an R0 (>1 mm margin) resection, whereas 154 (15.1%) had an R1 (≤1 mm margin) resection. R1 resection was associated with a worse recurrence-free survival (10-year recurrence-free survival, R1 47.3% vs R0 62.8%, hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.2-2.7, P = .002); residual tumor at either the transection margin (R1t) or the mobilization margin (R1m) was associated with increased recurrence versus R0 (R1t versus R0: hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.0-3.0, P = .033; R1m versus R0: hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.0-1.7, P = .060). In contrast, margin status was not associated with overall survival (10-year overall survival, R1 71.1% vs R0 71.8%, P = .392). Intraoperatively, 539 (53.6%) patients had frozen section evaluation of the surgical margin; 49 (9.1%) patients had a positive margin on frozen section analysis; 38 of the 49 patients (77.6%) had reresection, and a final R0 (secondary R0) margin was achieved in 30 patients (78.9%). Extending resection to achieve an R0 status remained associated with worse overall survival (hazard ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.2, P = .001) and recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-5.0, P = .004) compared with primary R0 resection. On multivariable analyses, tumor-specific factors, such as cellular differentiation, perineural invasion, Ki-67 index, and major vascular invasion, rather than surgical margin, were associated with long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Margin status was not associated with long-term survival. The reresection of an initially positive surgical margin to achieve a negative margin did not improve the outcome of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Parenchymal-sparing pancreatic procedures for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors may be appropriate when feasible.

Unmet Needs in Functional and Nonfunctional Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Recently, the European Neuroendocrine Tumor Society (ENETS) held working sessions composed of members of the advisory board and other neuroendocrine neoplasm (NEN) experts to attempt to identify unmet needs in NENs in different locations or with advanced/poorly differentiated NENs. This report briefly summarizes the main proposed areas of unmet needs in patients with functional and nonfunctional pancreatic NENs.

MRI-based nomogram estimates the risk of recurrence of primary nonmetastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors after curative resection

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimation of the recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors help with prognosis, guide follow-up, and avoid futile treatments.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether MRI features could preoperatively estimate the recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) and to refine a novel prognostic model through developing a nomogram incorporating various MRI features.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

In all, 81 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed nonmetastatic PNETs.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCES

1.5 T MR, including T₁ -weighted, T₂ -weighted, and diffusion-weighted imaging sequences.

ASSESSMENT

Qualitative and quantitative MRI features of PNET were assessed by three experienced radiologists.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Uni- and multivariable analyses for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model. The MRI-based nomogram was then designed based on multivariable logistic analysis in our study and the performance of the nomogram was validated according to C-index, calibration, and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

MRI features, including tumor size (hazard ratio [HR]: 14.131; P = 0.034), enhancement pattern (HR: 21.821, P = 0.032), and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values (HR: 0.055, P = 0.038) were significant independent predictors of RFS at multivariable analysis. The performance of the nomogram incorporating various MRI features (with a C-index of 0.910) was improved compared with that based on tumor size, enhancement pattern, and ADC alone (with C-index values of 0.672, 0.851, and 0.809, respectively). The calibration curve of the nomogram exhibited perfect consistency between estimation and observation at 0.5, 1, and 2 years after surgery. The decision curve showed that a nomogram incorporating three features had more favorable clinical predictive usefulness than any single feature.

DATA CONCLUSION

MRI features can be considered effective recurrence predictors for PNETs after surgery. The preliminary nomogram incorporating various MRI features could assess the risk of recurrence in PNETs and may be used to optimize individual treatment strategies.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2019;50:397-409.