Disaster survivors in their third decade: trajectories of initial stress responses and long-term course of mental health

The course, trajectories and predictors of depression 23 years after the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia: A prospective cohort study

There is a scarcity of long-term studies of depression after natural disasters. This prospective epidemiologic study evaluated the course of depression and factors associated with it among survivors 23-years post-earthquake. A geographically stratified subsample of 725 adults exposed to the Spitak earthquake was assessed for depression using DSM-III-R criteria in 1991 and 2012. Additionally, an adapted CES-D-16 scale was used to assess depressive symptoms in 2012. A fitted multi-nominal logistic regression model identified predictors of different trajectories of depression. For the whole group, the rate of clinical depression dropped from 51.5% in 1991 to 31.7% in 2012. Earthquake intensity and experiencing strong fear at baseline were strongly associated with chronic (depressed at both assessments, 18.1%) and recovered (depressed only in 1991, 33.5%) depression trajectories compared with the healthy group, with odds ratios (OR) over 4.0 and 3.0, respectively. Predictors distinguishing chronic depression included earthquake-related nuclear-family deaths (OR=3.79), chronic illnesses at baseline (OR=1.24), and social support (OR=0.91). Predictors of the late-onset trajectory (depressed only in 2012, 13.5% of the cohort) included post-earthquake trauma (OR=1.42), socioeconomic status (OR=0.45), and social support (OR=0.86). The factors associated with the different trajectories of depression provide guidance for planning more effective mental health interventions after disasters.

Posttraumatic stress disorder symptom trajectories within the first year following emergency department admissions: pooled results from the International Consortium to predict PTSD

BACKGROUND

Research exploring the longitudinal course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms has documented four modal trajectories (low, remitting, high, and delayed), with proportions varying across studies. Heterogeneity could be due to differences in trauma types and patient demographic characteristics.

METHODS

This analysis pooled data from six longitudinal studies of adult survivors of civilian-related injuries admitted to general hospital emergency departments (EDs) in six countries (pooled N = 3083). Each study included at least three assessments of the clinician-administered PTSD scale in the first post-trauma year. Latent class growth analysis determined the proportion of participants exhibiting various PTSD symptom trajectories within and across the datasets. Multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic characteristics, type of event leading to the injury, and trauma history as predictors of trajectories differentiated by their initial severity and course.

RESULTS

Five trajectories were found across the datasets: Low (64.5%), Remitting (16.9%), Moderate (6.7%), High (6.5%), and Delayed (5.5%). Female gender, non-white race, prior interpersonal trauma, and assaultive injuries were associated with increased risk for initial PTSD reactions. Female gender and assaultive injuries were associated with risk for membership in the Delayed (v. Low) trajectory, and lower education, prior interpersonal trauma, and assaultive injuries with risk for membership in the High (v. Remitting) trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that over 30% of civilian-related injury survivors admitted to EDs experience moderate-to-high levels of PTSD symptoms within the first post-trauma year, with those reporting assaultive violence at increased risk of both immediate and longer-term symptoms.

The experiences of dealing with consequences of an avalanche - surviving soldiers' perspectives

Purpose: The aim of the study was to explore and describe experiences of daily life after having experienced an avalanche three decades ago.Method: This paper presents a qualitative study of 12 male survivors of an avalanche during their military service, interviewed 30 years post-disaster.Findings: A comprehensive understanding of the categories led to the latent theme "Finding my own way of managing and dealing with life". Findings revealed three categories describing experiences of daily living: (i) A comfortable life; (ii) A challenging, yet accomplished life; (iii) A demanding life. The first category represents a greater degree of using adaptive coping strategies for managing everyday life compared to the other two categories. The third category represents the group having the most challenging consequences. Among the three, the latter category conveys the most maladaptive coping strategies.Conclusions:The participants had different experiences with regards to their health and how they coped with their everyday life after the avalanche disaster. Insights into coping strategies may provide a guide for appropriate interventions for survivors dealing with traumatic events.

The trajectory of symptom burden in exposed and unexposed survivors of a major avalanche disaster: a 30 year long-term follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Limited research exists concerning the long-term effects of avalanches on survivors' mental health beyond the first years after the accident. The aims of this study were to describe and evaluate possible differences in long-term mental health symptoms after a major avalanche disaster between exposed and unexposed soldiers using a longitudinal design.

METHOD

Present mental health symptoms were examined among avalanche exposed (n = 12) and unexposed (n = 9) soldiers by PTSS-10, IES-15 and STAI-12 in four waves (1986-1987 and 2016).

RESULTS

Binary logistic regression revealed that the odds to score above the cut-off were significantly lower for both groups after one year compared to baseline for PTSS-10 (p = 0.018) and significantly lower after 30 days compared to baseline for IES-15 (p = 0.005). Data did not reveal significant differences between the exposed and unexposed groups regarding adjusted PTSS-10, IES-15 or STAI-12 mean scores compared. Linear mixed model-analyses revealed significant effects of time. The adjusted mean scores declined over time for both groups: PTSS-10 (p = 0.001), IES-15 (p = 0.026) and STAI-12 (p = 0.001), and the time trajectories for PTSS-10 were significantly different between the groups (p = 0.013). Although not significant (all p > 0.05), results indicated that a larger proportion of soldiers in the exposed group experienced posttraumatic stress symptoms (5/12) (PTSS-10 score ≥ 4) and distress symptoms (6/12) (IES-15 score ≥ 26) above cut-off points, 30 years post-disaster.

CONCLUSIONS

The course of mental health symptoms may persist, and even increase, in selected and trained military personnel 30 years after exposure to a natural disaster. These findings may be of great importance for health authorities planning appropriate follow-up.

Bayesian PTSD-Trajectory Analysis with Informed Priors Based on a Systematic Literature Search and Expert Elicitation

There is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. However, little effort has been made thus far to directly incorporate background knowledge via the prior distribution into the analyses. This process might be especially useful in the context of latent growth mixture modeling when one or more of the latent groups are expected to be relatively small due to what we refer to as limited data. We argue that the use of Bayesian statistics has great advantages in limited data situations, but only if background knowledge can be incorporated into the analysis via prior distributions. We highlight these advantages through a data set including patients with burn injuries and analyze trajectories of posttraumatic stress symptoms using the Bayesian framework following the steps of the WAMBS-checklist. In the included example, we illustrate how to obtain background information using previous literature based on a systematic literature search and by using expert knowledge. Finally, we show how to translate this knowledge into prior distributions and we illustrate the importance of conducting a prior sensitivity analysis. Although our example is from the trauma field, the techniques we illustrate can be applied to any field.

Operationalising resilience in longitudinal studies: a systematic review of methodological approaches

Over the life course, we are invariably faced with some form of adversity. The process of positively adapting to adverse events is known as ‘resilience’. Despite the acknowledgement of 2 common components of resilience, that is, adversity and positive adaptation, no consensus operational definition has been agreed. Resilience operationalisations have been reviewed in a cross-sectional context; however, a review of longitudinal methods of operationalising resilience has not been conducted. The present study conducts a systematic review across Scopus and Web of Science capturing studies of ageing that posited operational definitions of resilience in longitudinal studies of ageing. Thirty-six studies met inclusion criteria. Non-acute events, for example, cancer, were the most common form of adversity identified and psychological components, for example, the absence of depression, the most common forms of positive adaptation. Of the included studies, 4 used psychometrically driven methods, that is, repeated administration of established resilience metrics, 9 used definition-driven methods, that is, a priori establishment of resilience components and criteria, and 23 used data-driven methods, that is, techniques that identify resilient individuals using latent variable models. Acknowledging the strengths and limitations of each operationalisation is integral to the appropriate application of these methods to life course and longitudinal resilience research.

Birth Outcomes in a Disaster Recovery Environment: New Orleans Women After Katrina

OBJECTIVES

To examine how the recovery following Hurricane Katrina affected pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

308 New Orleans area pregnant women were interviewed 5-7 years after Hurricane Katrina about their exposure to the disaster (danger, damage, and injury); current disruption; and perceptions of recovery. Birthweight, gestational age, birth length, and head circumference were examined in linear models, and low birthweight (<2500 g) and preterm birth (<37 weeks) in logistic models, with adjustment for confounders.

RESULTS

Associations were found between experiencing damage during Katrina and birthweight (adjusted beta for high exposure = -158 g) and between injury and gestational age (adjusted beta = -0.5 days). Of the indicators of recovery experience, most consistently associated with worsened birth outcomes was worry that another hurricane would hit the region (adjusted beta for birthweight: -112 g, p = 0.08; gestational age: -3.2 days, p = 0.02; birth length: -0.65 cm, p = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Natural disaster may have long-term effects on pregnancy outcomes. Alternately, women who are most vulnerable to disaster may be also vulnerable to poor pregnancy outcome.

Sick Leave and Disability Across Three Decades After a Major Disaster

Extended functional impairment characterized by sick leave and disability after a single disaster has not been documented before. This prospective, longitudinal, case-control study applied growth mixture modeling to predict trajectories of functional impairment in oil rig workers, survivors (n = 68) and a matched comparison group (n = 84), over 27 years after the 1980 North Sea oil rig disaster. In the initial 12 years post-disaster, survivors displayed higher rates of functional impairment than the comparison group. A minor group of survivors (n = 8, 11.8%) demonstrated persistent functional impairment from the start and remained unable to work during the subsequent three decades. Long-term sick leave and disability were related to perceived peritraumatic death threat and a propensity towards social withdrawal. Most survivors (n = 60) revealed no major functional impairment. The study indicates that functional impairment should be counteracted in the early support after a single disaster.

Stress and cortisol in disaster evacuees: an exploratory study on associations with social protective factors

Though cumulative emotional and physical effects of disasters may diminish evacuees' short and long-term mental and physical health, social factors may buffer such consequences. We approached survivors of the October 2007 San Diego, California firestorms. We gathered data during the evacuation and 3 months afterward. Questionnaires measured social support as well as PTSD, depression, and anxiety symptoms. Saliva samples were used to assess the stress hormone, cortisol. Analyses, adjusting for age, gender, and socioeconomic status, showed PTSD symptoms were associated with flattening of the diurnal cortisol rhythm during evacuation. Secondary analyses showed those reporting a family emphasis on moral and religious values had lower psychological distress. Though anxiety symptoms had significantly decreased in the overall sample at follow-up, blunted cortisol rhythms persisted among those individuals with continued high anxiety. Results highlight a possible psychological, and perhaps a physiological, benefit of social and existential factors in disaster situations. Future work should explore the role of psychosocial factors and stress physiology in the development of long-term health concerns among individuals exposed to disaster.

Mental health services required after disasters: learning from the lasting effects of disasters

Disasters test civil administrations' and health services' capacity to act in a flexible but well-coordinated manner because each disaster is unique and poses unusual challenges. The health services required differ markedly according to the nature of the disaster and the geographical spread of those affected. Epidemiology has shown that services need to be equipped to deal with major depressive disorder and grief, not just posttraumatic stress disorder, and not only for victims of the disaster itself but also the emergency service workers. The challenge is for specialist advisers to respect and understand the existing health care and support networks of those affected while also recognizing their limitations. In the initial aftermath of these events, a great deal of effort goes into the development of early support systems but the longer term needs of these populations are often underestimated. These services need to be structured, taking into account the pre-existing psychiatric morbidity within the community. Disasters are an opportunity for improving services for patients with posttraumatic psychopathology in general but can later be utilized for improving services for victims of more common traumas in modern society, such as accidents and interpersonal violence.

The EMDR Protocol for Recent Critical Incidents: Follow-Up Report of an Application in a Human Massacre Situation

This article reports the follow-up results of our field study (Jarero & Uribe, 2011) that investigated the application of the eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) Protocol for Recent Critical Incidents (EMDR-PRECI) in a human massacre situation. A single individual session was provided to 32 forensic personnel of the State Attorney General in the Mexican state of Durango who were working with 258 bodies recovered from clandestine graves. Pre-post results showed significant improvement for both immediate treatment and waitlist/delayed treatment groups on the Impact of Event Scale (IES) and Short PTSD Rating Interview (SPRINT). In this study, we report the follow-up assessment, which was conducted, at 3 and 5 months posttreatment. Follow-up scores showed that the original treatment results were maintained, with a further significant reduction of self-reported symptoms of posttraumatic stress and PTSD between posttreatment and follow-up. During the follow-up period, the employees continued to work with the recovered corpses and were continually exposed to horrific emotional stressors, with ongoing threats to their own safety. This suggests that EMDR-PRECI was an effective early intervention, reducing traumatic stress for a group of traumatized adults continuing to work under extreme stressors in a human massacre situation. It appears that the treatment may have helped to prevent the development of chronic PTSD and to increase psychological and emotional resilience.