Distribution of a giant panda population influenced by land cover: Distribution Change of Pandas

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2-3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3-4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

Large‐scale genetic surveys for main extant population of wild giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) reveals an urgent need of human management

There are only six isolated living giant panda populations, and a comprehensive understanding of their genetic health status is crucial for the conservation of this vulnerable species. Liangshan Mountains is one of the main distribution areas of living giant pandas and is outside the newly established Giant panda national park. In this study, 971 giant panda fecal samples were collected in the heartland of Liangshan Mountains (Mabian Dafengding Nature Reserve: MB; Meigu Dafengding Nature Reserve: MG; and Heizhugou Nature Reserve: HZG). Microsatellite markers and mitochondrial D-loop sequences were used to estimate population size and genetic diversity. We identified 92 individuals (MB: 27, MG: 22, HZG: 43) from the three reserves. Our results showed that: (1) genetic diversity of three giant panda populations was moderate; (2) several loci deviated significantly from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and almost all these deviated loci showed significant heterozygote deficiencies and inbreeding; (3) three giant panda populations have substantial genetic differentiation with the most differentiation between MB and the two other populations; and (4) a large amount of giant panda feces outside the three reserves were found, implying the existence of protection gap. These results indicated that under stochastic events, the giant panda populations in Liangshan Mountains are at risk of genetic decline or extinction and urgent need of human management. This study revealed that high attention should be paid to the protection of these giant panda populations outside the Giant panda national park, to ensure their survival in their distribution areas.

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Spatial Aggregation of Giant Pandas and Sympatric Species in a Mountainous Landscape

Understanding how climate change alters the spatial aggregation of sympatric species is important for biodiversity conservation. Previous studies usually focused on spatial shifting of species but paid little attention to changes in interspecific competitions under climate change. In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the spatial aggregation of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and three sympatric competitive species (i.e., black bears (Ursus thibetanus), golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor), and wild boars (Sus scrofa)) in the Qinling Mountains, China. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to map the current spatial distributions of giant pandas and sympatric animals and projected them to future climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s. We then examined the range overlapping and niche similarities of these species under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting directions of the overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. In conclusion, future climate change greatly shapes the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric species in the Qinling Mountains, while interspecific competition would be intensified under both mild and worst-case climate change scenarios.

A review of the impacts of four identified major human disturbances on the habitat and habitat use of wild giant pandas from 2015 to 2020

Human disturbance poses a serious threat to the survival of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), but few systematic and specialized reviews on the impacts of human disturbance on pandas and their habitats have been published. After the fourth giant panda survey (2011-2014), some new studies and important findings have emerged. To update the understanding of the impacts of human disturbance, research on the impacts of major human disturbances on the habitat and habitat use of wild giant pandas from 2015 to 2020 was reviewed based on 33 publications (including three books and 30 articles). The major human disturbances in panda habitat included livestock grazing, roads, herb collection, and logging. Livestock affects panda habitat by occupying, disturbing, and defecating in it, and the time and intensity of habitat use by horses are greater than the time and intensity at which pandas use their habitats. Roads affect nearby habitats by disturbing the vegetation and causing pollution, and the effect of roads extends far beyond the roads themselves and varies with road type. The impacts of logging on the forest structure and bamboo in panda habitat are long-term. Pandas avoid habitats disturbed by livestock grazing, roads, and logging. The impacts of herb collection are not known, because they have received little attention. Findings suggested a need for further research on human disturbance to giant pandas, focusing on comprehensive evaluations of the interactions between different disturbances.