Exploring fall migratory patterns of American black ducks using eight decades of band-recovery data

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes), two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

Identifying hybrids & the genomics of hybridization: Mallards & American black ducks of Eastern North America

Resolving evolutionary relationships and establishing population structure depends on molecular diagnosability that is often limited for closely related taxa. Here, we use 3,200 ddRAD-seq loci across 290 mallards, American black ducks, and putative hybrids to establish population structure and estimate hybridization rates. We test between traditional assignment probability and accumulated recombination events based analyses to assign hybrids to generational classes. For hybrid identification, we report the distribution of recombination events complements ADMIXTURE simulation by extending resolution past F4 hybrid status; however, caution against hybrid assignment based on accumulated recombination events due to an inability to resolve F1 hybrids. Nevertheless, both analyses suggest that there are relatively few backcrossed stages before a lineage's hybrid ancestry is lost and the offspring are effectively parental again. We conclude that despite high rates of observed interspecific hybridization between mallards and black ducks in the middle part of the 20th century, our results do not support the predicted hybrid swarm. Conversely, we report that mallard samples genetically assigned to western and non-western clusters. We indicate that these non-western mallards likely originated from game-farm stock, suggesting landscape level gene flow between domestic and wild conspecifics.

Flyway structure in the circumpolar greater white-fronted goose

Dispersal and migratory behavior are influential factors in determining how genetic diversity is distributed across the landscape. In migratory species, genetic structure can be promoted via several mechanisms including fidelity to distinct migratory routes. Particularly within North America, waterfowl management units have been delineated according to distinct longitudinal migratory flyways supported by banding data and other direct evidence. The greater white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons) is a migratory waterfowl species with a largely circumpolar distribution consisting of up to six subspecies roughly corresponding to phenotypic variation. We examined the rangewide population genetic structure of greater white-fronted geese using mtDNA control region sequence data and microsatellite loci from 23 locales across North America and Eurasia. We found significant differentiation in mtDNA between sampling locales with flyway delineation explaining a significant portion of the observed genetic variation (~12%). This is concordant with band recovery data which shows little interflyway or intercontinental movements. However, microsatellite loci revealed little genetic structure suggesting a panmictic population across most of the Arctic. As with many high-latitude species, Beringia appears to have played a role in the diversification of this species. A common Beringian origin of North America and Asian populations and a recent divergence could at least partly explain the general lack of structure at nuclear markers. Further, our results do not provide strong support for the various taxonomic proposals for this species except for supporting the distinctness of two isolated breeding populations within Cook Inlet, Alaska (A. a. elgasi) and Greenland (A. a. flavirostris), consistent with their subspecies status.

Mercury in wintering American black ducks (Anas rubripes) downstream from a point-source on the lower Penobscot River, Maine, USA

Waterfowl wintering along the lower Penobscot River, Maine continue to be exposed to elevated Hg concentrations from the HoltraChem chlor-alkali plant that operated along the river between 1967 and 2000. In American black ducks (Anas rubripes) total Hg in duck breast muscle increased with residence time on contaminated marshes, reaching means of 0.82±0.21μg/g ww (wet weight) by the end of the fall hunting season, and prompting Maine to issue a human consumption advisory on duck breast muscle. Methyl Hg comprised over 99% of the total Hg in breast muscle. The ratio of Hg concentrations in blood and muscle were strongly correlated and approached 1:1 after extended residence times. Primary feather (P1) total Hg concentrations averaged 2.2±1.3μg/g fw (fresh weight), verifying low Hg exposure during feather growth on distant breeding grounds the preceding summer. Mercury concentrations in black ducks, following winter residence along the lower Penobscot exceeded levels associated with reproductive toxicity. Carry-over of Hg to summer breeding grounds may limit the subsequent reproductive success of black ducks.

A hierarchical spatiotemporal analog forecasting model for count data

Analog forecasting is a mechanism‐free nonlinear method that forecasts a system forward in time by examining how past states deemed similar to the current state moved forward. Previous applications of analog forecasting has been successful at producing robust forecasts for a variety of ecological and physical processes, but it has typically been presented in an empirical or heuristic procedure, rather than as a formal statistical model. The methodology presented here extends the model‐based analog method of McDermott and Wikle (Environmetrics, 27, 2016, 70) by placing analog forecasting within a fully hierarchical statistical framework that can accommodate count observations. Using a Bayesian approach, the hierarchical analog model is able to quantify rigorously the uncertainty associated with forecasts. Forecasting waterfowl settling patterns in the northwestern United States and Canada is conducted by applying the hierarchical analog model to a breeding population survey dataset. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean is used to help identify potential analogs for the waterfowl settling patterns.

Updating movement estimates for American black ducks (Anas rubripes)

Understanding migratory connectivity for species of concern is of great importance if we are to implement management aimed at conserving them. New methods are improving our understanding of migration; however, banding (ringing) data is by far the most widely available and accessible movement data for researchers. Here, we use band recovery data for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) from 1951-2011 and analyze their movement among seven management regions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We showed that black ducks generally exhibit flyway fidelity, and that many black ducks, regardless of breeding region, stopover or overwinter on the Atlantic coast of the United States. We also show that a non-trivial portion of the continental black duck population either does not move at all or moves to the north during the fall migration (they typically move to the south). The results of this analysis will be used in a projection modeling context to evaluate how habitat or harvest management actions in one region would propagate throughout the continental population of black ducks. This analysis may provide a guide for future research and help inform management efforts for black ducks as well as other migratory species.