Predicting the discharge status after liver transplantation at a single center: a new approach for a new era

Predictors of Length of Stay and Mortality During Simultaneous Liver-Kidney Transplant Index Admission: Results From the US-Multicenter SLKT Consortium

Length of stay (LOS) during index solid organ transplant impacts morbidity and healthcare costs. To date, there are no studies evaluating characteristics and outcomes of simultaneous liver-kidney transplant (SLKT) index hospitalization. We examined factors associated with LOS and mortality during index SLKT admission.

Methods

Adult SLKT recipients between 2002 and 2017 at 6 transplant centers across 6 UNOS regions were retrospectively enrolled in the US-Multicenter SLKT Consortium. Multivariable regression analyses assessed predictors of SLKT LOS and death during index admission.

Results

Median age of cohort (N = 570) was 58 y (interquartile range: 51-64); 63% male, 75% White, 32.3% hepatitis C, 23.3% alcohol-related, 20.1% nonalcoholic steatohepatitis with median MELD-Na at SLKT 28 (23-34). Seventy-one percent were hospitalized at the time of SLKT with median LOS pretransplant of 10 d. Majority of patients were discharged alive (N = 549; 96%)' and 36% were discharged to subacute rehab facility. LOS for index SLKT was 19 d (Q1: 10, Q3: 34 d). Female sex (P = 0.003), Black race (P = 0.02), advanced age (P = 0.007), ICU admission at time of SLKT (P = 0.03), high MELD-Na (P = 0.003), on cyclosporine during index hospitalization (P = 0.03), pre-SLKT dialysis (P < 0.001), and kidney delayed graft function (P < 0.001) were the recipient factors associated with prolonged LOS during index SLKT hospitalization. Prolonged LOS also contributed to overall mortality (HR = 1.007; P = 0.03).

Conclusions

Despite excellent survival, index SLKT admission was associated with high-resource utilization with more than half the patients with LOS >2 wk and affected overall patient survival. Further investigation is needed to optimize healthcare resources for these patients in a financially strained healthcare landscape.

The role of recipient myosteatosis in graft and patient survival after deceased donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Myosteatosis is associated with perioperative outcomes in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Here, we investigated the effects of body composition and myosteatosis on long-term graft and patient survival following OLT.

METHODS

Clinical data from 225 consecutive OLT recipients from a prospective database were retrospectively analysed (May 2010 to December 2017). Computed tomography-based lumbar skeletal muscle index (SMI) (muscle mass) and mean skeletal muscle radiation attenuation (SM-RA) (myosteatosis) were calculated using a segmentation tool (3D Slicer). Patients with low skeletal muscle mass (low SMI) and myosteatosis (low SM-RA) were identified using predefined and validated cut-off values.

RESULTS

The mean donor and recipient age was 55 ± 16 and 54 ± 12 years, respectively. Some 67% of the recipients were male. The probability of graft and patient survival was significantly lower in patients with myosteatosis compared with patients with higher SM-RA values (P = 0.011 and P = 0.001, respectively). Low skeletal muscle mass alone was not associated with graft and patient survival (P = 0.273 and P = 0.278, respectively). Dividing the cohort into quartiles, based on the values of SMI and SM-RA, resulted in significant differences in patient but not in graft survival (P = 0.011). Even though multivariable analysis identified low SM-RA as an important prognostic marker (hazard ratio: 2.260, 95% confidence interval: 1.177-4.340, P = 0.014), myosteatosis lost its significance when early mortality (90 days) was excluded from the final multivariable model. Patients with myosteatosis showed significantly higher all-cause mortality and in particular higher rates of deaths due to respiratory and septic complication (P = 0.002, P = 0.022, and P = 0.049, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative myosteatosis may be an important prognostic marker in patients undergoing deceased donor liver transplantation. The prognostic value of myosteatosis seems to be particularly important in the early post-operative phase. Validation in prospective clinical trials is warranted.

Resources Utilization After Liver Transplantation in Patients With and Without Hepatopulmonary Syndrome: Cleveland Clinic Experience

Patients with hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) reportedly experience posttransplant morbidity and require more resources to care during perioperative period. The exact incremental increase of resources utilization compared with non-HPS population remains unknown.

Myosteatosis to predict inferior perioperative outcome in patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation

Muscle wasting and alterations of body composition are linked to clinical outcomes in numerous medical conditions. The role of myosteatosis in posttransplant outcomes remains to be determined. Here we investigated skeletal muscle mass and myosteatosis as prognostic factors in patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The data of 225 consecutive OLT recipients from a prospective database were retrospectively analyzed (May 2010-December 2017). Computed tomography-based skeletal-muscle-index (muscle mass), visceral-fat-area (visceral adiposity), and mean skeletal-muscle-radiation-attenuation (myosteatosis) were calculated using a segmentation tool. Cut-off values of myosteatosis resulted in a good stratification of patients into low- and high-risk groups in terms of morbidity (Clavien-Dindo ≥3b). Patients with myosteatosis had significantly higher complication rates (90-day Comprehensive Complication Index 68 ± 32 vs 44 ± 30, P < .001) and also displayed significantly longer intensive care (18 ± 25 vs 11 ± 21 days, P < .001) and hospital stay (56 ± 55 vs 33 ± 24 days, P < .001). Estimated costs were 44% higher compared to patients without myosteatosis. Multivariable analysis identified myosteatosis as an independent prognostic factor for major morbidity (odds ratio: 2.772, confidence interval: 1.516-5.066, P = .001). Adding myosteatosis to the well-established Balance-of-Risk-(BAR) score resulted in an increased prognostic value compared to the original BAR score. Myosteatosis may be a useful parameter to predict perioperative outcome in patients undergoing OLT, supporting the role of muscle quality (myosteatosis) over quantity (muscle mass) in this setting.

Impact of recipient functional status on 1-year liver transplant outcomes

BACKGROUND

The Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scale has been widely validated for clinical practice for over 60 years.

AIM

To examine the extent to which poor pre-transplant functional status, assessed using the KPS scale, is associated with increased risk of mortality and/or graft failure at 1-year post-transplantation.

METHODS

This study included 38278 United States adults who underwent first, non-urgent, liver-only transplantation from 2005 to 2014 (Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients). Functional impairment/disability was categorized as severe, moderate, or none/normal. Analyses were conducted using multivariable-adjusted Cox survival regression models.

RESULTS

The median age was 56 years, 31% were women, median pre-transplant Model for End-Stage for Liver Disease score was 18. Functional impairment was present in 70%; one-quarter of the sample was severely disabled. After controlling for key recipient and donor factors, moderately and severely disabled patients had a 1-year mortality rate of 1.32 [confidence interval (CI): 1.21-1.44] and 1.73 (95%CI: 1.56-1.91) compared to patients with no impairment, respectively. Subjects with moderate and severe disability also had a multivariable-adjusted 1-year graft failure rate of 1.13 (CI: 1.02-1.24) and 1.16 (CI: 1.02-1.31), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Pre-transplant functional status is a useful prognostic indicator for 1-year post-transplant patient and graft survival.

Prediction of early discharge after gynaecological oncology surgery within ERAS

OBJECTIVES

Enhanced recovery after surgery programs (ERAS) have been proven to decrease the length of hospital stay without increasing readmission rates or complications. However, the patient and operative characteristics that improve the chance of a successful early hospital discharge are not well established. The aim of this study was to design a nomogram which could be used before surgery, using the characteristics of patients, to establish who could benefit from early discharge (POD ≤ 2 days).

METHODS

This observational study has been prospectively conducted. All the included patients were referred for surgical treatment of gynecologic cancer. We defined two sub-groups of patients on surgical procedure characteristics: isolated procedures (hysterectomy or lymphadenectomy) and combined procedures (at least the association of two procedures).

RESULTS

230 patients were enrolled during the study protocol. 83.9% of patients were treated with a minimally invasive surgery (MIS). 159 patients (69.1%) were discharged on or before POD 2. On multivariate analysis, the surgical approach (open surgery vs. laparoscopy, OR  0.02 (95% CI [0-0.07]), p < 0.001) and the type of surgery (combined procedure versus isolated procedure, OR  0.41 (95% CI [0.18-0.91]), p = 0.028) were found to be significant predictors of increased hospital stay. A nomogram has been built for the purpose of predicting eligible patients for early post-operative discharge based on the multivariate analysis results (AUC = 0.86, 95% CI [0.81-0.92]).

CONCLUSION

The use of MIS for isolated procedures in oncologic indications constitutes an independent factor of early discharge in a setting of ERAS. These promising preliminary results still require to be validated on a prospective cohort.

Development of a machine learning algorithm predicting discharge placement after surgery for spondylolisthesis

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a machine learning algorithm that can accurately predict discharge placement in patients undergoing elective surgery for degenerative spondylolisthesis.

METHODS

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database was used to select patients that underwent surgical treatment for degenerative spondylolisthesis between 2009 and 2016. Our primary outcome measure was non-home discharge which was defined as any discharge not to home for which we grouped together all non-home discharge destinations including rehabilitation facility, skilled nursing facility, and unskilled nursing facility. We used Akaike information criterion to select the most appropriate model based on the outcomes of the stepwise backward logistic regression. Four machine learning algorithms were developed to predict discharge placement and were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and overall performance.

RESULTS

Nine thousand three hundred and thirty-eight patients were included. Median age was 63 (interquartile range [IQR] 54-71), and 63% (n = 5,887) were female. The non-home discharge rate was 18.6%. Our models included age, sex, diabetes, elective surgery, BMI, procedure, number of levels, ASA class, preoperative white blood cell count, and preoperative creatinine. The Bayes point machine was considered the best model based on discrimination (AUC = 0.753), calibration (slope = 1.111; intercept = - 0.002), and overall model performance (Brier score = 0.132).

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that it is possible to create a predictive machine learning algorithm with both good accuracy and calibration to predict discharge placement. Using our methodology, this type of model can be developed for many other conditions and (elective) treatments. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

A cost analysis of early biliary strictures following orthotopic liver transplantation in the United States

INTRODUCTION

To date, the financial burden of biliary strictures (BS) after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) has remained largely unassessed. This study sought to approximate perioperative costs associated with early BS and delineate where in the hospital these costs are incurred.

METHODS

The Premier Healthcare Database was queried for patients undergoing OLT between 2010 and 2016. Patients who did and did not develop early BS were compared with respect to perioperative costs and outcome variables. Multivariable regression models were used to estimate differences between groups.

RESULTS

Patients who developed early BS had a longer length of stay (LOS) (35.3 days vs 17.8 days, P < 0.001) and were less likely to be discharged home (odds ratio = 0.45, P = 0.003). Development of early BS was associated with an incremental cost increase of $81 881 (45.8%, P < 0.001). The greatest relative cost increases were in radiology (+163.5%) and respiratory therapy (+157.1%), while the greatest absolute increase was in room and board (+$27 589).

CONCLUSIONS

Early BS after OLT result in higher costs stemming from longer LOS and increased need for various diagnostic studies and therapies. In addition to incentivizing measures that may prevent early BS, hospitals should account for these factors when developing payment schemes for OLT with payors.

Functional status, healthcare utilization, and the costs of liver transplantation

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts higher transplant healthcare utilization and costs; however, the independent contribution of functional status towards costs is understudied. The study objective was to evaluate the association between functional status, as measured by Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), and liver transplant (LT) costs in the first posttransplant year. In a cohort of 598 LT recipients from July 1, 2009 to November 30, 2014, multivariable models assessed associations between KPS and outcomes. LT recipients needing full assistance (KPS 10%-40%) vs being independent (KPS 80%-100%) were more likely to be discharged to a rehabilitation facility after LT (22% vs 3%) and be rehospitalized within the first posttransplant year (78% vs 57%), all P < .001. In adjusted generalized linear models, in addition to MELD (P < .001), factors independently associated with higher 1-year post-LT transplant costs were older age, poor functional status (KPS 10%-40%), living donor LT, pre-LT hemodialysis, and the donor risk index (all P < .001). One-year survival for patients in the top cost decile was 83% vs 93% for the rest of the cohort (log rank P < .001). Functional status is an important determinant of posttransplant resource utilization; therefore, standardized measurements of functional status should be considered to optimize candidate selection and outcomes.

Predicting early discharge from hospital after liver transplantation (ERDALT) at a single center: a new model

BACKGROUND & RATIONALE

Limited information related to Liver Transplantation (LT) costs in South America exists. Additionally, costs analysis from developed countries may not provide comparable models for those in emerging economies. We sought to evaluate a predictive model of Early Discharge from Hospital after LT (ERDALT = length of hospital stay ≤ 8 days). A predictive model was assessed based on the odds ratios (OR) from a multivariate regression analysis in a cohort of consecutively transplanted adult patients in a single center from Argentina and internally validated with bootstrapping technique.

RESULTS

ERDALT was applicable in 34 of 289 patients (11.8%). Variables independently associated with ERDALT were MELD exception points OR 1.9 (P = 0.04), surgery time < 4 h OR 3.8 (P = 0.013), < 5 units of blood products consumption (BPC) OR 3.5 (P = 0.001) and early weaning from mechanical intubation OR 6.3 (P = 0.006). Points in the predictive scoring model were allocated as follows: MELD exception points (absence = 0 points, presence = 1 point), surgery time < 4 h (0-2 points), < 5 units of BPC (0-2 points), and early weaning (0-3 points). Final scores ranged from 0 to 8 points with a c-statistic of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77-0.90; P < 0.0001). Transplant costs were significantly lower in patients with ERDALT (median $23,078 vs. $28,986; P < 0.0001). Neither lower patient and graft survival, nor higher rates of short-term re-hospitalization and acute rejection events after discharge were observed in patients with ERDALT. In conclusion, the ERDALT score identifies patients suitable for early discharge with excellent outcomes after transplantation. This score may provide applicable models particularly for emerging economies.

[Redesigning the hospital discharge process]

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this article is to show that the redesign and planning process of hospital discharge advances the departure time of the patient from a hospital environment.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Quasi-experimental study conducted from January 2011 to April 2013, in a local hospital. The cases analysed were from medical and surgical nursing units. The process was redesigned to coordinate all the professionals involved in the process. The hospital discharge improvement process improvement was carried out by forming a working group, the analysis of retrospective data, identifying areas for improvement, and its redesign. The dependent variable was the time of patient administrative discharge. The sample was classified as pre-intervention, inter-intervention, and post-intervention, depending on the time point of the study.

RESULTS

The final sample included 14,788 patients after applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The mean discharge release time decreased significantly by 50 min between pre-intervention and post-intervention periods. The release time in patients with planned discharge was one hour and 25 min less than in patients with unplanned discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Process redesign is a useful strategy to improve the process of hospital discharge. Besides planning the discharge, it is shown that the patient leaving the hospital before 12 midday is a key factor.

Factors affecting discharge destination following lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

Lung transplant (LT) recipients requiring additional care may be referred to inpatient rehabilitation prior to discharge home. This study seeks to describe discharge destinations following LT, compare the characteristics of patients discharged to different destinations, and identify the predictors of discharge destination.

METHODS

Retrospective study of 243 LT recipients who survived to hospital discharge between 2006 and 2009. LT recipients were compared based on discharge destination on data pertaining to demographics, clinical characteristics, and healthcare utilization.

RESULTS

Of the 243 recipients, 197 (81%) were discharged home, 42 (17%) to inpatient rehabilitation, and 4 (2%) to other medical facilities. Age, pulmonary diagnosis, most recent six-minute walk distance (6 MWD) prior to transplant, pre-transplant mechanical ventilation, priority listing status, pre- and post-transplant intensive care unit length of stay (ICU LOS), post-transplant LOS, total LOS, and participation in pre-transplant rehabilitation were statistically different between patients that were discharged home versus inpatient rehabilitation. Age, most recent 6 MWD prior to transplant, pre-transplant mechanical ventilation, and total LOS were found to be independent predictors of discharge destination.

CONCLUSION

Clinical factors can help identify patients more likely to require inpatient rehabilitation. Identification of these factors has the potential to facilitate early discharge planning and optimize continuity of care.

Predictors of poor outcome among older liver transplant recipients

With the increasing age of recipients undergoing orthotopic liver transplant (OLT), there is need for better risk stratification among them. Our study aims to identify predictors of poor outcome among OLT recipients ≥ 60 yr of age. All patients who underwent OLT at Cleveland Clinic from January 2004 to April 2010 were included. Baseline patient characteristics and post-OLT outcomes (mortality, graft failure, length of stay, and major post-OLT cardiovascular events) were obtained from prospectively collected institutional registry. Among patients ≥ 60 yr of age, multivariate regression modeling was performed to identify independent predictors of poor outcome. Of the 738 patients included, 223 (30.2%) were ≥ 60 yr. Hepatic encephalopathy, platelet counts < 45,000/μL, total serum bilirubin > 3.5 mg/dL, and serum albumin < 2.65 mg/dL independently predicted poor short-term outcomes. The presence of pre-OLT coronary artery disease and arrhythmia were independent predictors of poor long-term outcomes. Cardiac causes represented the second most common cause of mortality among the elderly cohort. Despite that, this carefully selected cohort of older OLT recipients had outcomes that were comparable with the younger recipients. Thus, our results show the need for better pre-OLT evaluation and optimization, and for closer post-OLT surveillance, of cardiovascular disease among the elderly.

[Deceased donor liver transplantation]

Deceased donor liver transplantation is nowadays a routine procedure for the treatment of terminal liver failure and often represents the only chance of a cure. Under given optimal conditions excellent long-term results can be obtained with 15-year survival rates of well above 60 %.In Germany the outcome after liver transplantation has deteriorated since the introduction of an allocation policy, which is based on the medical urgency. At present 25 % of liver graft recipients die within the first year after transplantation. In contrast 1-year survival in most other countries, e.g. in the USA or the United Kingdom is around 90 % and therefore significantly better. Reasons for the inferior results in Germany are on the one hand an increasing number of critically ill recipients and on the other hand an unfavorable situation for organ donation. In comparison with other countries the organ donation rate is low and moreover the risk profile of these donors is above average. This combination of organ shortage and organ allocation represents a big challenge for the future orientation of liver transplantation and creates the potential for conflict. These cannot be solved on a medical basis but require a social consensus.Because of the present inferior results and because of the high expenses of the present system we suggest a discussion on future allocation policies as well as on future centre structures in Germany. In addition to the medical urgency the maximum benefit should also be considered for organ allocation.

Reducing Liver Transplant Length of Stay: A Lean Six Sigma Approach

Context

Organ transplant centers are under increasing scrutiny to maintain outcomes while controlling cost in a challenging population of patients. Throughout health care and transplant specifically, length of stay is used as a benchmark for both quality and resource utilization.

Objective

To decrease our length of stay for liver transplant by using Lean Six Sigma methods.

Design

The Six Sigma DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) method was used to systematically analyze our process from transplant listing to hospital discharge after transplant, identifying many factors affecting length of stay.

Patients or Other Participants

Adult, single-organ, primary liver transplant recipients between July 2008 and June 2012 were included in the study. Recipients with living donors or fulminant liver failure were excluded.

Intervention(s)

Multiple interventions, including a clinical pathway and enhanced communication, were implemented.

Main Outcome Measure(s)

Length of stay after liver transplant and readmission after liver transplant.

Results

Median length of stay decreased significantly from 11 days before the intervention to 8 days after the intervention. Readmission rate did not change throughout the study. The improved length of stay was maintained for 24 months after the study.

Conclusion

Using a Lean Six Sigma approach, we were able to significantly decrease the length of stay of liver transplant patients. These results brought our center's outcomes in accordance with our goal and industry benchmark of 8 days. Clear expectations, improved teamwork, and a multidisciplinary clinical pathway were key elements in achieving and maintaining these gains.

Risk-scoring model for prediction of non-home discharge in epithelial ovarian cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Identification of preoperative factors predictive of non-home discharge after surgery for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) may aid counseling and optimize discharge planning. We aimed to determine the association between preoperative risk factors and non-home discharge.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients who underwent primary surgery for EOC at Mayo Clinic between January 2, 2003 and December 29, 2008 were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative factors were retrospectively abstracted. Logistic regression models were fit to identify preoperative factors associated with non-home discharge. Multivariable models were developed using stepwise and backward variable selection. A risk-scoring system was developed for use in preoperative counseling.

RESULTS

Within our cohort of 587 EOC patients, 12.8% were not discharged home (61 went to a skilled nursing facility, 1 to a rehabilitation facility, 1 to hospice, and there were 12 in-hospital deaths). Median length of stay was 7 days (interquartile range [IQR] 5, 10 days) for patients dismissed home compared with 11 days (IQR 7, 17 days) for those with non-home dismissals (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, patients with advanced age (odds ratio [OR] 3.75 95% CI [2.57, 5.48], p < 0.001), worse Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (OR 0.92 [95% CI 0.43, 1.97] for ECOG performance status 1 vs 0 and OR 5.40 (95% CI 2.42, 12.03) for score of 2+ vs 0; p < 0.001), greater American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (OR 2.03 [95% CI 1.02, 4.04] for score ≥3 vs < 3, p = 0.04), and higher CA-125 (OR 1.28 [95% CI 1.12, 1.46], p < 0.001) were less likely to be discharged home. The unbiased estimate of the c-index was excellent at 0.88, and the model had excellent calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of preoperative factors associated with non-home discharge can assist patient counseling and postoperative disposition planning.