The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

Review article: Evaluation and care of the critically ill patient with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The increase in prevalence of liver disease globally will lead to a substantial incremental burden on intensive care requirements. While liver transplantation offers a potential life-saving intervention, not all patients are eligible due to limitations such as organ availability, resource constraints, ongoing sepsis or multiple organ failures. Consequently, the focus of critical care of patients with advanced and decompensated cirrhosis turns to liver-centric intensive care protocols, to mitigate the high mortality in such patients.

AIM

Provide an updated and comprehensive understanding of cirrhosis management in critical care, and which includes emergency care, secondary organ failure management (mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, haemodynamic support and intensive care nutrition), use of innovative liver support systems, infection control, liver transplantation and palliative and end-of life care.

METHODS

We conducted a structured bibliographic search on PubMed, sourcing articles published up to 31 March 2024, to cover topics addressed. We considered data from observational studies, recommendations of society guidelines, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials, and incorporated our clinical expertise in liver critical care.

RESULTS

Critical care management of the patient with cirrhosis has evolved over time while mortality remains high despite aggressive management with liver transplantation serving as a crucial but not universally available resource.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of organ support therapies, intensive care protocols, nutrition, palliative care and end-of-life discussions and decisions are an integral part of critical care of the patient with cirrhosis. A multi-disciplinary approach towards critical care management is likely to yield better outcomes.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.

Predictors of 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy on admission to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to compare the laboratory findings and disease severity scores of patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department (ED) to predict 30-day mortality.

METHOD

The patients over 18 years old and diagnosed HE in the ED of a tertiary hospital were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, predisposing causes and outcomes of the patients included in the study were recorded in the data form. Severity of liver disease was assessed by Child Pugh Score (CPS), End-stage liver disease model (MELD), MELD-Na and MELD-Lactate scores.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-four patients diagnosed with HE were included in the study. 59.1% of the patients were male. The mean age of the patients was 65.2 ± 12.6 years. The mortality rate of the patients was 47.2%. When the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, which determines the predictive properties of laboratory parameters and disease severity scores, was examined, the area under curve value of the MELD-Lactate score (0.858 95% CI 0.812-0.904, P  < 0.001) was the highest. Binary logistic regression analysis for the estimation of patients' 30-day mortality showed that CPS and MELD-Lactate scores and blood ammonia and B-type natriuretic peptide levels were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

According to the study data, MELD-Lactate and BNP levels in patients diagnosed with HE in the ED may help the clinician in the prediction of 30-day mortality in the early period.

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.

Using machine learning methods to predict 28-day mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict 28-day mortality for patients with HE.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients from MIMIC-IV were randomized into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Training cohort was used for establishing the model while validation cohort was used for validation. The outcome was defined as 28-day mortality. Predictors were identified by recursive feature elimination (RFE) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive performance of different ML models.

RESULTS

In the MIMIC-IV database, 601 patients were eventually diagnosed with HE. Of these, 112 (18.64%) experienced death within 28 days. Acute physiology score III (APSIII), sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), acute kidney injury (AKI) and mechanical ventilation were identified as independent risk factors. Validation set indicated that the artificial neural network (NNET) model had the highest AUC of 0.837 (95% CI:0.774-0.901). Furthermore, in the calibration curve, the NNET model was also well-calibrated (P = 0.323), which means that it can better predict the 28-day mortality in HE patients. Additionally, the performance of the NNET is superior to existing scores, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the NNET model demonstrated better discrimination in predicting 28-day mortality as compared to other models. This developed model could potentially improve the early detection of HE with high mortality, subsequently improving clinical outcomes in these patients with HE, but further external prospective validation is still required.

MELD-Lactate Predicts Poor Outcome in Variceal Bleeding in Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Predictors of poor outcome associated with variceal bleeding remain suboptimal. In patients with cirrhosis, serum lactate combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-LA) improved prediction across heterogeneous populations. However, prognostic properties have not yet been assessed in the context of variceal bleeding.

AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of MELD-LA compared to MELD, lactate, and nadir hemoglobin in cirrhosis patients with variceal bleeding.

METHODS

In this multicenter study, we identified 472 patients with variceal bleeding from a German primary cohort (University Hospitals Hamburg/Frankfurt/Cologne), and two independent external validation cohorts [Veterans Affairs (VA), Baylor University]. Discrimination for 30-day mortality was analyzed and scores were compared. MELD-LA was evaluated separately in validation cohorts to ensure consistency of findings.

RESULTS

In contrast to nadir hemoglobin, MELD and peak-lactate at time of bleeding were significantly higher in 30-day non-survivors in the primary cohort (p = 0.708; p < 0.001). MELD-LA had excellent discrimination for 30-day mortality (AUROC 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88), better than MELD and peak-lactate (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.84; AUROC 0.73, 95% CI 0.66-0.81). MELD-LA predicted 30-day mortality independently of age, sex, severity of liver disease and vasopressor support (HR 1.29 per 1-point-increase of MELD-LA; 95% CI 1.19-1.41; p < 0.001). Similarly, MELD-LA demonstrated excellent discrimination for 30-day mortality in the VA (AUROC = 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.93) and Baylor cohort (AUROC = 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-LA significantly improves discrimination of short-term mortality associated with variceal bleeding, compared to MELD, peak-lactate and nadir hemoglobin. Thus, MELD-LA might represent a useful and objective marker for risk assessment and therapeutic intervention in patients with variceal bleeding.

Updates on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score and Impact on the Liver Transplant Waiting List: A Narrative Review

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an established indicator of cirrhosis severity and a predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation and for allocation in liver transplantation. Since the adoption of the score, its use has been expanded to multiple new indications requiring model modifications, including relevant clinical and demographic variables, to increase predictive accuracy. The purpose of this report is to provide an update on the modifications made to the MELD score, comparing their performance with C statistics, advantages and disadvantages, and impact on mortality at 3 months after placing a TIPS or awaiting liver transplantation.

Factors predicting mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis visiting the emergency department

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is becoming a regional and healthcare burden. South Korea is one of the 10 countries with the highest age standardized prevalence of decompensated LC. Moreover, the proportion of patients with alcoholic LC is increasing and there has been no decrease in the incidence of decompensated alcoholic LC. Patients with decompensated LC frequently visit the emergency department (ED). Several studies focused on patients with LC who visited the ED, but the studies about alcoholic LC were limited. This study aimed to identify predicting factors for mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED. This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients who visited an ED between November 2017 and June 2021. The baseline characteristics, complications of LC, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and laboratory values including lactate were assessed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In total, 433 patients with alcoholic LC were included for analysis and the in hospital mortality rate was 15.9% (n = 69). Univariate regression analyses identified that MELD score, lactate, platelet, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, creatinine, albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) predicted in-hospital mortality. Multivariate regression analysis showed that MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP predicted the mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED.

Gastroduodenal artery disconnection during liver transplantation decreases non-anastomotic stricture incidence

BACKGROUND

The hepatic artery is the only blood source nourishing the biliary duct and associated with biliary complication after liver transplantation (LT). Gastroduodenal artery (GDA) disconnection increased proper hepatic artery flow. Whether this procedure attenuates biliary non-anastomotic stricture (NAS) is not clear.

METHODS

A total of 241 patients with LT were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into the GDA disconnection (GDA-) and GDA preservation (GDA+) groups. Propensity score matching (PSM) was administrated to reduce bias. Logistic regression was conducted to analyze risk factors for biliary NAS before and after PSM. Postoperative complications were compared. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests were performed to compare overall survival.

RESULTS

In all, 99 patients (41.1%) underwent GDA disconnection, and 49 (20.3%) developed NAS. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that GDA preservation (OR = 2.24, 95% CI: 1.11-4.53; P = 0.025) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score > 15 (OR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.12-4.11; P = 0.022) were risk factors for biliary NAS. PSM provided 66 pairs using 1:2 matching method, including 66 GDA disconnection and 99 GDA preservation patients. Multivariate logistic regression after PSM also showed that GDA preservation (OR = 3.15, 95% CI: 1.26-7.89; P = 0.014) and MELD score > 15 (OR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.08-5.36; P = 0.031) were risk factors for NAS. When comparing complications between the two groups, GDA preservation was associated with a higher incidence of biliary NAS before and after PSM (P = 0.031 and 0.017, respectively). In contrast, other complications including early allograft dysfunction (P = 0.620), small-for-size graft syndrome (P = 0.441), abdominal hemorrhage (P = 1.000), major complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 3, P = 0.318), and overall survival (P = 0.088) were not significantly different between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

GDA disconnection during LT ameliorates biliary NAS incidence and may be recommended for application in clinical practice.

Survival prediction using the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) in critically ill patients with acute- on chronic liver failure: A retrospective observational study

Background and aim

Liver cirrhosis in patients treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with high mortality. Well established scores are useful to allow for assessment of prognosis and support ICU treatment guidance. However, currently used scoring systems often do not reflect the complexity of critically ill patients. Therefore, we tested the newly developed Freiburg index-of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score in order to assess its potential role for prognostication of cirrhotic patients in the ICU.

Methods

A total of 310 patients with liver cirrhosis treated in the ICU between 2010 and 2021 were enrolled in this retrospective observational study. Prognostic factors for mortality and 28-day mortality were assessed. Moreover, using c indices the prognostic discrimination of different prognostic scores was analyzed.

Results

The FIPS score allowed to discriminate patients with high ICU mortality and within 28-days after ICU treatment (ICU mortality: 42.2 vs. 59.9%, p = 0.008 and 28-day mortality: 43.3 vs. 74.1%, p < 0.001). However, the FIPS score in its current composition showed no superior prognostic discrimination compared to other established scores. Multivariable analyses identified the FIPS score (HR 1.25 [1.04-1.49], p = 0.015) and lactate at admission (HR 1.07 [1.04-1.09], p < 0.001) as significant predictors of ICU mortality. Lactate at admission substantially improved patient risk stratification within each FIPS risk groups.

Conclusion

Similar to other commonly used scores, the FIPS score in its current composition does not allow a sufficiently reliable prognostication of critically ill patients treated in the ICU. However, adding lactate as additional factor to the FIPS score may improve its prognostic ability.

Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Background

To develop a scoring system related to the lactate clearance (ΔLA) to predict the mortality risk (MELD-ΔLA) for critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, 881 critically ill cirrhotic patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were included eventually. The outcomes of our study were defined as ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. Predictors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis to develop the predictive scoring system. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) were used to identify the predicting performance of the MELD-ΔLA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child–Pugh, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF), chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, subgroup analysis was also performed based on whether critically ill cirrhotic patients underwent liver transplantation.

Results

Creatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), lactate first, ΔLA and vasopressors were closely associated with ICU death of liver critically ill cirrhotic patients. The C-index of the MELD-ΔLA in ICU death was 0.768 (95% CI 0.736–0.799) and the AUC for the MELD-ΔLA scoring system in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 0.774 (95% CI 0.743–0.804), 0.765 (95% CI 0.735–0.796), and 0.757 (95% CI 0.726–0.788), suggested that MELD-ΔLA scoring system has a good predictive value than SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, Child–Pugh, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, the study also confirmed the good predictive value of MELD-ΔLA scoring system for critically ill cirrhotic patients regardless of undergoing liver transplantation.

Conclusion

The developed MELD-ΔLA score is a simple scoring system in predicting the risk of ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients, which may have a good predictive performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02351-5.

"Beyond MELD" - Emerging strategies and technologies for improving mortality prediction, organ allocation and outcomes in liver transplantation

In this review article, we discuss the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and its dual purpose in general and transplant hepatology. As the landscape of liver disease and transplantation has evolved considerably since the advent of the MELD score, we summarise emerging concepts, methodologies, and technologies that may improve mortality prognostication in the future. Finally, we explore how these novel concepts and technologies may be incorporated into clinical practice.

Are MELD and MELDNa Still Reliable Tools to Predict Mortality on the Liver Transplant Waiting List?

Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. Unfortunately, the scarcity of donor organs and the increasing pool of potential recipients limit access to this life-saving procedure. Allocation should account for medical and ethical factors, ensuring equal access to transplantation regardless of recipient's gender, race, religion, or income. Based on their short-term prognosis prediction, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD sodium (MELDNa) have been widely used to prioritize patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation resulting in a significant decrease in waiting list mortality/removal. Recent concern has been raised regarding the prognostic accuracy of MELD and MELDNa due, in part, to changes in recipients' profile such as body mass index, comorbidities, and general condition, including nutritional status and cause of liver disease, among others. This review aims to provide a comprehensive view of the current state of MELD and MELDNa advantages and limitations and promising alternatives. Finally, it will explore future options to increase the donor pool and improve donor-recipient matching.

Prognostic Role of MELD-Lactate in Cirrhotic Patients' Short- and Long-Term Prognosis, Stratified by Causes of Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Recently, model for end-stage liver disease-lactate (MELD-LA) proved to be a superior predicting factor of inpatient mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. The study's objective was to evaluate the ability of MELD-LA to predict both short- and long-term mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients stratified by causes of cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective observational research of 469 cirrhotic patients entering intensive care unit. Clinical parameters and prognostic scores were measured and collected in the first 24 hours after entering intensive care unit. Follow-up duration was at least 5 years. Independent relationship between MELD-LA and mortality was evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analyses. Discrimination of scoring system was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration of the score was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for significance.

RESULTS

The MELD-LA score (odds ratio: 1.179, 95% confidence interval: 1.112-1.250, P < 0.001) was an independent risk factor for 15-day mortality. The area under the curve of MELD-LA was the highest (0.808, 95% confidence interval: 0.765-0.852) in predicting 15-day mortality and it had superior calibration. We found MELD-LA showed the best discrimination ability in cirrhotic patients caused by both alcohol and hepatitis (0.783, 95% confidence interval: 0.651-0.915) or alcohol alone (0.805, 95% confidence interval: 0.743-0.867).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-LA performs better for predicting short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients, especially caused by both alcohol and hepatitis or alcohol alone.

Comparison of General and Liver-Specific Prognostic Scores in Their Ability to Predict Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

INTRODUCTION

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and III and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) are prognostic scores commonly used in the intensive care unit (ICU). Their accuracy in predicting mortality has not been adequately evaluated in comparison to prognostic scores commonly used in critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation (AD) or acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIMS

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of prognostic scores, including APACHE II, SOFA, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) SOFA, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CPS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, MELD to serum sodium ratio (MESO) index, CLIF-C organ failure (CLIF-C OF), CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores, in predicting mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU. Patients and Methods. A total of 382 patients (280 males, mean age 67.3 ± 10.6 years) with cirrhosis were retrospectively evaluated. All prognostic scores were calculated in the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Their ability to predict mortality was measured using the analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Mortality was observed in 31% of the patients. Analysis of AUC revealed that CLIF-C OF (0.807) and CLIF-SOFA (0.776) had the best ability to predict mortality in all patients, but CLIF-C OF (0.749) had higher prognostic accuracy in patients with ACLF. CLIF-SOFA, SOFA, and CLIF-C AD had the highest AUC values in patients with AD, with no statistical difference (p=0.971).

CONCLUSIONS

When compared to other general or liver-specific prognostic scores, CLIF-C OF, CLIF-SOFA, SOFA, and CLIF-C AD have good accuracy to predict mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and patients with AD. According to the clinical scenario, different scores should be used to provide prognosis to patients with cirrhosis in the ICU.

Evolution of liver transplant organ allocation policy: Current limitations and future directions

Since the adoption of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for organ allocation in 2002, numerous changes to the system of liver allocation and distribution have been made with the goal of decreasing waitlist mortality and minimizing geographic variability in median MELD score at time of transplant without worsening post-transplant outcomes. These changes include the creation and adoption of the MELD-Na score for allocation, Regional Share 15, Regional Share for Status 1, Regional Share 35/National Share 15, and, most recently, the Acuity Circles Distribution Model. However, geographic differences in median MELD at time of transplant remain as well as limits to the MELD score for allocation, as etiology of liver disease and need for transplant changes. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a subset of liver failure where prevalence is rising and has been shown to have an increased mortality rate and need for transplantation that is under-demonstrated by the MELD score. This underscores the limitations of the MELD score and raises the question of whether MELD is the most accurate, objective allocation system. Alternatives to the MELD score have been proposed and studied, however MELD score remains as the current system used for allocation. This review highlights policy changes since the adoption of the MELD score, addresses limitations of the MELD score, reviews proposed alternatives to MELD, and examines the specific implications of these changes and alternatives for ACLF.