Impact of pandemic COVID-19 on global economies (a seven-scenario analysis)

Impact of government subsidies on innovation of Chinese biopharmaceutical firms: Based on kink threshold model

Do government subsidies achieve the goals of stimulating firm innovation and macro-regulation? Existing studies have not reached a consistent conclusion. We will study the incentive effect of government subsidies on innovation of biopharmaceutical firms, analyze the optimal interval of government subsidies, and improve the efficiency of government subsidies. Thus, based on kink threshold model using data from Chinese biopharmaceutical listed companies from 2013-2019, this study analyzes the impact of government subsidies on innovation inputs and outputs. Government subsidies can stimulate innovation inputs and outputs of biopharmaceutical firms. Meanwhile, such subsidies have a significant threshold effect on innovation inputs and outputs, and there is an optimal interval effect. Additionally, concerning enterprise ownership, government subsidies have a more significant role in promoting innovation of non-state biopharmaceutical firms. Regarding regional differences, such subsidies have a more significant role in promoting innovation of firms in the less economically developed central and western regions. This study reveals the influence pattern of government subsidies, and provides insights and suggestions to formulate subsidy policies and enhance innovation.

Explaining vaccine hesitancy: A COVID-19 study of the United States

Using recent data on the unvaccinated population across US states, this paper focuses on the determinants of vaccine hesitancy related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings show that more prosperous states and states with more elderly residents and more physicians have lower vaccine hesitancy. There was some evidence of the significance of race, but internet access and history of other contagious diseases failed to make a difference. States with centralized health systems and those with mask mandates generally had a lower percentage of unvaccinated populations. Finally, the presence of Democrats in state legislatures tended to lower vaccination hesitancies, ceteris paribus.

Managing the risk of COVID-19 via vaccine passports: Modeling economic and policy implications

The increasing use of vaccine passports (VPs) to certify immunity from the prevailing coronavirus has created positive and negative aspects that have shaken the workings of markets. The VPs are, however, not universally used and not required by all businesses and governments at this point. Given the newness associated with VPs and the ongoing uncertainty of the pandemic, full implications of VPs have not been considered. This paper provides some formal insights into the implications of the use of VPs, borrowing from the established economic theory. Recommendations for public policy are provided.

Decision-Making of Transnational Supply Chain Considering Tariff and Third-Party Logistics Service

Countries’ economic policies, such as tariff barriers, have a profound impact on the global economy and international trade. The imposition of tariffs seriously disturbs the global trade and supply chain operations. This paper studies a supply chain composed of an overseas manufacturer, a domestic supplier and a third-party integrated international logistics service provider. A three-level decentralized leader-follower decision-making model and its variant--leader-follower alliance decision-making models are established, and the influences of revenue sharing and cost sharing on the three-level decentralized decision-making are analyzed. The results show that it is difficult for the supply chain to achieve coordination when the transportation and insurance costs are considered in the tariff cost. The increase of tariff rates will reduce the profits of all parties and the overall profit of the supply chain, and weaken the dominant position of the supplier in the supply chain. Revenue sharing can improve the supply chain performance; the performance of the whole supply chain cannot be improved or may even deteriorate by sharing the transportation cost alone. The study can provide practitioners with implications for how to carry effective cooperation and coordination in the supply chain and how to effectively reduce the influence of tariffs in the global trade system.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on China's Economy and Energy in the Context of Trade Protectionism

In the current context of rising trade protectionism, deeply understanding the impacts of COVID-19 on economy and energy has important practical significance for China to cope with external shocks in an uncertain environment and enhance economic resilience. By constructing an integrated economic and energy input-output model including the COVID-19 shock, this paper assesses the impacts of COVID-19 on China's macro-economy and energy consumption in the context of trade protectionism. The results are shown as follows. First, in the context of protectionism, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China would cause a 2.2-3.09% drop in China's GDP and a 1.56-2.48% drop in energy consumption, while adverse spillovers from global spread of COVID-19 would reduce its GDP by 2.27-3.28% and energy consumption by 2.48-3.49%. Second, the negative impacts of domestic outbreak on China's construction, non-metallic mineral products, and services would be on average 1.29% higher than those on other industries, while the impacts of global spread of COVID-19 on export-oriented industries such as textiles and wearing apparel would be on average 1.23% higher than other industries. Third, the effects of two wave of the pandemic on China's fossil energy consumption would be on average 1.44% and 0.93% higher than non-fossil energy consumption, respectively.