Welcome Mats and On-Ramps for Older Adults: The Impact of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid Expansions on Dual Enrollment in Medicare and Medicaid

A welfare analysis of Medicaid and recidivism

We present conservative estimates for the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) associated with providing Medicaid to inmates exiting prison. The MVPF measures the ratio between a policy's social benefits and its governmental costs. Our MVPF estimates suggest that every additional $1 the government spends on providing inmates exiting prison with Medicaid coverage can result in social benefits ranging between $3.45 and $10.62. A large proportion of the benefits we consider stems from the reduced future criminal involvement among former inmates who receive Medicaid. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find that Medicaid expansions reduce the average number of times a released inmate is reimprisoned within 1 year by approximately 11.5%. By combining this estimate with key values reported elsewhere (e.g., victimization costs, data on victimization and incarceration), we quantify specific benefits arising from the policy. These encompass diminished criminal harm due to lower reoffense rates, direct benefits to former inmates through Medicaid coverage, increased employment opportunities, and reduced loss of liberty resulting from fewer future reimprisonments. Net-costs consist of the cost of providing Medicaid net of changes in the governmental cost of imprisonment, changes in the tax revenue due to increased employment, and changes in spending on other public assistance programs. We interpret our estimates as conservative since we deliberately err on the side of under-estimating benefits and over-estimating costs when data on specific items are imprecise or incomplete. Our findings align closely with others in the sparse literature investigating the crime-related welfare impacts of Medicaid access, underscoring the substantial indirect benefits public health insurance programs can offer through crime reduction, in addition to their direct health-related advantages.

Among Medicare beneficiaries, Affordable Care Act coverage expansions reduced utilization of ambulatory care, particularly among duals

We leveraged local area variation in the size of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansions of Medicaid and nongroup coverage and measured changes in Medicare utilization and spending from 2010 through 2018 using the universe of Medicare fee-for-service claims. We found that the ACA coverage expansions led to decreases in the share of Medicare beneficiaries receiving ambulatory care and decreases in spending per beneficiary on ambulatory care. The reductions in ambulatory care were larger among beneficiaries enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid ("duals"). Our results suggest that coverage expansions may lead to congestion and reduced access to physicians for those who are continuously insured.

The impact of Medicaid expansion on spending and utilization by older low-income Medicare beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE

To examine indirect spillover effects of Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions to working-age adults on health care coverage, spending, and utilization by older low-income Medicare beneficiaries.

DATA SOURCES

2010-2018 Health and Retirement Study survey data linked to annual Medicare beneficiary summary files.

STUDY DESIGN

We estimated individual-level difference-in-differences models of total spending for inpatient, institutional outpatient, physician/professional provider services; inpatient stays, outpatient visits, physician visits; and Medicaid and Part A and B Medicare coverage. We compared changes in outcomes before and after Medicaid expansion in expansion versus nonexpansion states.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

The sample included low-income respondents aged 69 and older with linked Medicare data, enrolled in full-year traditional Medicare, and residing in the community.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

ACA Medicaid expansion was associated with a 9.8 percentage point increase in Medicaid coverage (95% CI: 0.020-0.176), a 4.4 percentage point increase in having any institutional outpatient spending (95% CI: 0.005-0.083), and a positive but statistically insignificant 2.4 percentage point change in Part B enrollment (95% CI: -0.003 to 0.050, p = 0.079).

CONCLUSIONS

ACA Medicaid expansion was associated with more institutional outpatient spending among older low-income Medicare beneficiaries. Increased care costs should be weighed against potential benefits from increased realized access to care.

Improving Identification of Medicaid Eligible Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Major Household Surveys with Limited Income or Asset Information

Analysis of public policy affecting dual eligibles requires accurate identification of survey respondents eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. Doing so for Medicaid is particularly challenging given the complex eligibility rules tied to income and assets. In this paper we provide guidance on how to best identify eligible respondents in household surveys that have limited income or asset information, such as the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), American Community Survey (ACS), Current Population Survey (CPS), and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). We show how two types of errors-false negative and false positive errors-are impacted by incorporating limited income or asset information, relative to the commonly-used approach of solely comparing total income to the income threshold. With the 2018 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which has detailed income and asset information, we mimic the income and asset information available in those other household surveys and quantify how errors change when imposing income or asset tests with limited information. We show that incorporating all available income and asset data results in the lowest number of errors and the lowest overall error rates. We recommend that researchers adjust income and impose the asset test to the fullest extent possible when imputing Medicaid eligibility for Medicare enrollees.

Examining Medicaid Participation and Medicaid Entry Among Senior Medicare Beneficiaries With Linked Administrative and Survey Data

Because Medicare beneficiaries can qualify for Medicaid through several pathways, duals who newly enroll in Medicaid may have experienced various financial and/or health changes that impact their Medicaid eligibility. Alternatively, new enrollment could reflect changes in awareness of the program among those previously eligible. Using monthly enrollment data linked to Health and Retirement Study survey data, we examine financial and health changes that occur around the time new Medicaid participants enter the program, and we compare those with changes experienced by both those continuously enrolled in Medicaid and those not enrolled. We find that Medicaid entry is often timed with a marked increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses, a substantial decrease in assets for some, and increases in activities of daily living (ADL) limitations. We also observe financial changes among persons continuously enrolled in Medicaid. Our results inform discussions about Medicaid eligibility policies and potential gaps in the protection that Medicaid offers from financial risk.

Impacts of Publicly Funded Health Insurance for Adults on Children's Academic Achievement. SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL 2023;89:860-884. [PMID: 38845841 PMCID: PMC11156232 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12614]

Empirical evidence demonstrates that publicly funded adult health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has had positive effects on low-income adults. We examine whether the ACA's Medicaid expansions influenced child development and family functioning in low-income households. We use a difference-in-differences framework exploiting cross-state policy variation and focusing on children in low-income families from a nationally representative, longitudinal sample followed from kindergarten to fifth grade. The ACA Medicaid expansions improved children's reading test scores by approximately 2 percent (0.04 SD). Potential mechanisms for these effects within families are more time spent reading at home, less parental help with homework, and eating dinner together. We find no effects on children's math test scores or socioemotional skills.

Better Late Than Never: Effects of Late ACA Medicaid Expansions for Parents on Family Health-Related Financial Well-Being

Public health insurance eligibility for low-income adults has improved adult economic well-being. But whether parental public health insurance eligibility has spillover effects on children's health insurance coverage and family health-related financial well-being is less understood. We use the 2016 to 2020 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) to estimate the effects of Medicaid expansions through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) for parents on child health insurance coverage, parents' employment decisions due to child health, and family health-related financial well-being. We compare children in low-income families in states that expanded Medicaid for parents after 2015 to states that never expanded in a difference-in-differences framework. We find that these expansions were associated with increases in children's public health insurance coverage by 5.5 percentage points and reductions in private coverage by 5 percentage points. We additionally find that parents were less likely to avoid changing jobs for health insurance reasons and children's medical expenses were less likely to exceed $1000. We find no evidence that the expansions affected children's dual coverage and uninsurance. Our estimates are robust to falsification and sensitivity analyzes. Our findings also suggest that benefits on children's medical expenses are concentrated in the families with the greatest financial need.

Increasing Medicaid's Stagnant Asset Test For People Eligible For Medicare And Medicaid Will Help Vulnerable Seniors

Low-income Medicare beneficiaries rely on Medicaid for supplemental coverage but must meet income and asset tests to qualify. We examined states' income and asset tests for full-benefit Medicaid during the period 2006-18 and examined how alternative asset tests would affect eligibility for community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries ages sixty-five and older. Most states have not updated the dollar limit of Medicaid's asset test since 1989, making the asset test increasingly restrictive in inflation-adjusted terms. We estimated that increasing Medicaid's asset limit by the Consumer Price Index, to Medicare Savings Program levels, or to $10,000 for individuals and $20,000 for couples would increase Medicaid eligibility by 1.7 percent, 4.4 percent, and 7.5 percent, respectively. Simplifying Medicaid's asset test to focus only on certain high-value assets would increase eligibility by 20.5 percent. Increasing asset limits would lessen restrictions on Medicaid eligibility that arise from stagnant asset tests, broadening eligibility for certain low-income Medicare beneficiaries and allowing them to retain higher, yet still modest, savings.

How did the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion Affect Coverage and Access to Care for Low-Income Parents Who Were Eligible for Medicaid Before the Law Was Passed?

We use the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impact of the Affordable Care Cct (ACA) Medicaid expansion on coverage and access to care for a subset of low-income parents who were already eligible for Medicaid when the ACA was passed. Any gains in coverage would typically be expected to improve access to and affordability of care, but there were concerns that by increasing the total population with coverage and thereby straining provider capacity, that the ACA would reduce access to care for individuals who were already eligible for Medicaid prior to the passage of the law. We found that the expansion reduced uninsurance among previously eligible parents by 12.6 percentage points, or a 40 percent decline from their 2012–2013 uninsurance rate. Moreover, these effects grew stronger over time with a 55 percent decline in uninsurance 2 to 3 years following expansion. Though we identified very few statistically significant impacts of the expansion on affordability of care, descriptive estimates show substantial declines in unmet needs due to cost and problems paying family medical bills. Descriptively, we find no significant increases in provider access problems for previously eligible parents, and very limited evidence that the Medicaid expansion was associated with more constrained provider capacity. Though sample size constraints were likely a factor in our ability to identify impacts on access and affordability measures, our overall findings suggest that the ACA Medicaid expansion positively affected our sample of low-income parents who met pre-ACA Medicaid eligibility criteria.