Investigating the implications of shifting baseline syndrome on conservation

Agroecosystem's contributions to people: how ranchers and specialists perceive threatened Espinal forests used for cattle-grazing

Scientists and managers seek to implement more inclusive and effective conservation strategies by incorporating plural valuations of nature and nature's contributions to people (NCP) into research and decision-making. For Argentina's threatened Espinal ecoregion, this need is particularly acute. In Entre Ríos province, practically all of these forests are devoted to production, and the expanding agricultural frontier increases their conversion to crops. We surveyed family ranchers and agricultural/environmental specialists, two key stakeholders for managing Espinal forests used for cattle grazing. Employing a sociocultural valuation, we determined i) stakeholder recognition of the Espinal's NCP and its support for quality of life, ii) similarity between stakeholder valuations (importance: 0 = none; 4 = very) of NCP and dimensions of well-being derived from the Espinal, and iii) relationship between ecological (e.g., forest degradation) and social (e.g., place of residence) factors and perceptions of the forest. Ranchers recognized more NCP and quality-of-life aspects, and the importance to their well-being tended to be greater than specialists. Both groups valued regulating and non-material NCP above material contributions and considered that forests are very important for physical and mental health. Finally, only rancher perceptions varied with tested variables, depending on degradation levels of forests with which they have the most contact and/or carry out their activities, the number of uses and recreational activities they carry out in forests, their knowledge of forests, and their place of residence. This study illustrates common ground upon which to promote synergies between production and conservation in Espinal-cattle agroecosystems.

The potential of historical spy-satellite imagery to support research in ecology and conservation

Remote sensing data are important for assessing ecological change, but their value is often restricted by their limited temporal coverage. Major historical events that affected the environment, such as those associated with colonial history, World War II, or the Green Revolution are not captured by modern remote sensing. In the present article, we highlight the potential of globally available black-and-white satellite photographs to expand ecological and conservation assessments back to the 1960s and to illuminate ecological concepts such as shifting baselines, time-lag responses, and legacy effects. This historical satellite photography can be used to monitor ecosystem extent and structure, species' populations and habitats, and human pressures on the environment. Even though the data were declassified decades ago, their use in ecology and conservation remains limited. But recent advances in image processing and analysis can now unlock this research resource. We encourage the use of this opportunity to address important ecological and conservation questions.

Spatial and temporal non-stationarity in long-term population dynamics of over-wintering birds of North America

Understanding population changes across long time scales and at fine spatiotemporal resolutions is important for confronting a broad suite of conservation challenges. However, this task is hampered by a lack of quality long-term census data for multiple species collected across large geographic regions. Here, we used century-long (1919-2018) data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) survey to assess population changes in over 300 avian species in North America and evaluate their temporal non-stationarity. To estimate population sizes across the entire century, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for species detection probabilities, variable sampling effort, and missing data. We evaluated population trends using generalized additive models (GAMs) and assessed temporal non-stationarity in the rate of population change by extracting the first derivatives from the fitted GAM functions. We then summarized the population dynamics across species, space, and time using a non-parametric clustering algorithm that categorized individual population trends into four distinct trend clusters. We found that species varied widely in their population trajectories, with over 90% of species showing a considerable degree of spatial and/or temporal non-stationarity, and many showing strong shifts in the direction and magnitude of population trends throughout the past century. Species were roughly equally distributed across the four clusters of population trajectories, although grassland, forest, and desert specialists more commonly showed declining trends. Interestingly, for many species, region-wide population trends often differed from those observed at individual sites, suggesting that conservation decisions need to be tailored to fine spatial scales. Together, our results highlight the importance of considering spatial and temporal non-stationarity when assessing long-term population changes. More generally, we demonstrate the promise of novel statistical techniques for improving the utility and extending the temporal scope of existing citizen science datasets.

Discrepancies between the drivers of alpha and beta plant diversity in arable field margins

Field margins are major habitats for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning in agricultural landscapes, but biotic homogenization of plant communities threatens their ecological and agronomic functions. Our objective is to determine the drivers of plant diversity in field margins for conservation and restoration purposes. To do so, we assessed the effects of field margin structure and long-term management over 20 years (1995-2015) on the taxonomic and functional α- and β-diversity, and the functional composition of herbaceous plant communities. In 2015, we surveyed 302 field margins in bocage landscapes of Brittany, northwestern France. Results were very similar between taxonomic and functional diversity but revealed important discrepancies between the drivers of α- and β-diversity. Deep ditches, mowing and grazing increased α-diversity but did not affect β-diversity. Denser hedgerows had lower α-diversity than other field margins but strongly contributed to β-diversity by harbouring more unique sets of species or life strategies. Long-term herbicide spraying in field margins and cropping intensity in adjacent habitats did not affect α-diversity, but had more complex effects on β-diversity and selected for common weeds. All in all, preservation of dense hedgerows, abandonment of herbicide spraying, and protection against agrochemical drifts are key measures to prevent the establishment of common weeds and biotic homogenization of herbaceous plant communities in field margins. Above all, our study shows how important it is to go beyond α-diversity to make robust conservation and restoration decisions.

Managing the effects of multiple stressors on wildlife populations in their ecosystems: developing a cumulative risk approach

Assessing cumulative effects of human activities on ecosystems is required by many jurisdictions, but current science cannot meet regulatory demands. Regulations define them as effect(s) of one human action combined with other actions. Here we argue for an approach that evaluates the cumulative risk of multiple stressors for protected wildlife populations within their ecosystems. Monitoring effects of each stressor is necessary but not sufficient to estimate how multiple stressors interact to affect wildlife populations. Examining the mechanistic pathways, from cellular to ecological, by which stressors affect individuals can help prioritize stressors and interpret how they interact. Our approach uses health indicators to accumulate the effects of stressors on individuals and to estimate changes in vital rates, driving population status. We advocate using methods well-established in human health and integrating them into ecosystem-based management to protect the health of commercially and culturally important wildlife populations and to protect against risk of extinction for threatened species. Our approach will improve abilities to conserve and manage ecosystems but will also demand significant increases in research and monitoring effort. We advocate for increased investment proportional to the economic scale of human activities in the Anthropocene and their pervasive effects on ecology and biodiversity.

What can be learned from fishers' perceptions for fishery management planning? Case study insights from Sainte-Marie, Madagascar

Local support is critical to the success and longevity of fishery management initiatives. Previous research suggests that how resource users perceive ecological changes, explain them, and cope with them, influences local support. The objectives of this study were two-fold. First, we collated local fishers' knowledge to characterize the long-term socio-ecological dynamics of the small-scale fishery of Sainte-Marie Island, in Madagascar. Second, we empirically assessed the individual- and site-level factors influencing support for fishery restrictions. Our results indicate that fishers observed a decline in fish abundance and catch sizes, especially in nearshore areas; many also perceived a reduction in fish sizes and the local disappearance of species. To maintain their catches, most fishers adapted by fishing harder and further offshore. Accordingly, fishers identified increased fishing effort (number of fishers and gear evolution) as the main cause of fishery changes. Collectively, our results highlight that the transition from a subsistence to commercial fishery, and resulting changes in the relationship between people and the fisheries, was an underlying driver of fishery changes. Additionally, we found that gender, membership to local associations, coping mechanisms, and perceptions of ecological health, were all interlinked and significantly associated with conservation-oriented attitudes. Conservation-oriented attitudes, however, were not associated with fishers' willingness to decrease fishing. In the short-term, area-based restrictions could contribute to building support for conservation. In the long-term, addressing the underlying causes of the decline will necessitate collaborations among the various groups involved to progressively build livelihood flexibility. Collectively, our study provides additional insights on the individual- and site-level factors influencing support for fishery restrictions. It also highlights the importance of dialoguing with fishers to ensure that fishery management plans are adapted to the local context.

Is there evidence of shifting baseline syndrome in environmental managers? An assessment using perceptions of bird population targets in UK nature reserves

Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes changing perceptions of biological conditions due to a loss of historical knowledge. Perceptions of 'normal' environmental conditions are continually updated, leading to underestimation of the true magnitude of long-term ecological change and potential setting of unambitious management targets. There has been speculation as to the presence and impacts of SBS within conservation management since Daniel Pauly's seminal paper in 1995, which outlined the potential effects of SBS on target-setting in fisheries management. Previous case studies have suggested that SBS may not occur in management, despite empirical evidence of SBS in other systems. In this study, 44 professionals and volunteers involved in bird species management, monitoring and target-setting across England were interviewed. Interviews asked for personal perceptions of current, maximum and target abundance, long-term trends, and perceived conservation priority for six bird species. Using paired tests, this study found no significant effect of experience on perceptions of current, maximum or target abundance of all species, despite differences in national abundance and trends, and differences in participant experience. Further power analysis indicated that even if SBS was statistically detectible with a larger sample, the practical implications of the syndrome would be minimal due to small effect sizes. Finally, the effect of experience on individual perceptions of species conservation priority varied between species, with generational amnesia in the form of 'lifting baselines' suggested for only one of the six species. This study suggests that shifting baseline syndrome may not be as significant a threat in conservation management as first thought.

Confirmed archaeological evidence of water deer in Vietnam: relics of the Pleistocene or a shifting baseline?

Studies of archaeological and palaeontological bone assemblages increasingly show that the historical distributions of many mammal species are unrepresentative of their longer-term geographical ranges in the Quaternary. Consequently, the geographical and ecological scope of potential conservation efforts may be inappropriately narrow. Here, we consider a case-in-point, the water deer Hydropotes inermis, which has historical native distributions in eastern China and the Korean peninsula. We present morphological and metric criteria for the taxonomic diagnosis of mandibles and maxillary canine fragments from Hang Thung Binh 1 cave in Tràng An World Heritage Site, which confirm the prehistoric presence of water deer in Vietnam. Dated to between 13 000 and 16 000 years before the present, the specimens are further evidence of a wider Quaternary distribution for these Vulnerable cervids, are valuable additions to a sparse Pleistocene fossil record and confirm water deer as a component of the Upper Pleistocene fauna of northern Vietnam. Palaeoenvironmental proxies suggest that the Tràng An water deer occupied cooler, but not necessarily drier, conditions than today. We consider if the specimens represent extirpated Pleistocene populations or indicate a previously unrecognized, longer-standing southerly distribution with possible implications for the conservation of the species in the future.