Which decision rules meet methodological standards in children with febrile neutropenia? Results of a systematic review and analysis

Decision-tree derivation and external validation of a new clinical decision rule (DISCERN-FN) to predict the risk of severe infection during febrile neutropenia in children treated for cancer

BACKGROUND

In 2017, international guidelines proposed new management of febrile neutropenia in children with cancer, adapted to the risk of severe infection by clinical decision rules (CDRs). Until now, none of the proposed CDRs has performed well enough in high-income countries for use in clinical practice. Our study aimed to build and validate a new CDR (DISCERN-FN) to predict the risk of severe infection in children with febrile neutropenia.

METHODS

We did two prospective studies. First, a prospective derivation study included all episodes of febrile neutropenia in children (aged <18 years) with a cancer diagnosis and receiving treatment for it who were admitted for an episode of febrile neutropenia, excluding patients already treated with antibiotics for this episode, febrile neutropenia not induced by chemotherapy, those receiving palliative care, and those with a stem cell allograft for less than 1 year, from April 1, 2007, to Dec 31, 2011 from two paediatric cancer centres in France. We collected the children's medical history, and clinical and laboratory data, and analysed their associations with severe infection. Sipina software was used to derive the CDR as a decision tree. Second, a prospective, national, external validation study was done in 23 centres from Jan 1, 2012, to May 31, 2016. The primary outcome was severe infection, defined by bacteraemia, a positive bacterial culture from a usually sterile site, a local infection with a high potential for extension, or an invasive fungal infection. The CDR was applied a posteriori to all episodes to evaluate its sensitivity, specificity, and negative likelihood ratio.

FINDINGS

The derivation set included 539 febrile neutropenia episodes (270 episodes in patients with blood cancer [median age 7·5 years, IQR 3·7-11·2; 158 (59 %) boys and 112 (41%) girls] and 269 in patients with solid tumours [median age 6·6 years, IQR 2·9-14·2; 140 (52 %) boys and 129 (48%) girls]). Significant variables introduced into the decision tree were cancer type (solid tumour vs blood cancer), age, high-risk chemotherapy, level of fever, C-reactive protein concentration (at 24-48 h after admission), and leucocyte and platelet counts and procalcitonin (at admission and at 24-48 h after admission). For the derivation set, the CDR sensitivity was 98% (95% CI 93-100), its specificity 56% (51-61), and the negative likelihood ratio 0·04 (0·01-0·15). 1806 febrile neutropenia episodes were analysed in the validation set (mean age 8·1 years [SD 4·8], 1014 (56%) boys and 792 (44%) girls), of which 332 (18%, 95% CI 17-20) were linked with severe infection. For the validation set, the CDR had a sensitivity of 95% (95% CI 91-97), a specificity of 38% (36-41), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0·13 (0·08-0·21). Our CDR reduced the risk of severe infection to a post-test probability of 0·8% (95% CI 0·2-2·9) in the derivation set and 2·4% (1·5-3·9) in the validation set. The validation study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03434795.

INTERPRETATION

The use of our CDR substantially reduced the risk of severe infection after testing in both the derivation and validation groups, which suggests that this CDR would improve clinical practice enough to be introduced in appropriate settings.

FUNDING

Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer.

Vital signs in pediatric oncology patients assessed by continuous recording with a wearable device, NCT04134429

Pediatric patients with cancer are at high risk for severe infections. Changes in vital signs, triggered by infections, may be detected earlier by continuous recording with a wearable device than with discrete measurements. This prospective, observational single-center feasibility study consecutively recruited pediatric patients undergoing chemotherapy for cancer. The WD Everion® was used for 14 days in each of the 20 patients on study to continuously record vital signs. Nine different vital signs and health indicators derived from them, plus six quality scores. This resulted in 274 study days (6576 hours) with 85’854 measuring points, which are a total of 772’686 measurements of vital signs and health indicators, plus 515’124 quality scores. Additionally, non-WD data like side effects, acceptability of the WD and effort for investigators were collected. In this manuscript, we present the methods of acquisition and explanations to the complete data set, which have been made publically available on open access and which can be used to study feasibility of continuous multi-parameter recording of vital signs by a WD.

Measurement(s)	Vital signs continiously
Technology Type(s)	Wearable Device
Factor Type(s)	Core temperature • Galvanic skin response • Health score • Heart rate • Heart rate variability • Oxygen saturation • Skin temperature • Skin blood perfusion
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Homo sapiens

Assessing Safe Discharge Criteria for Pediatric Oncology Patients Admitted for Febrile Neutropenia

Recent studies suggest outpatient therapy, oral antibiotics, or earlier discharge could be appropriate in some pediatric patients admitted with febrile neutropenia; supporting data are lacking. Retrospective chart review of patients admitted from September 2005 through October 2016 identified 131 "early discharge" febrile neutropenia admissions with discharge absolute neutrophil count (ANC) <500/µl and negative cultures. All were afebrile and discharged without outpatient antibiotics. Eleven of 131 patients (8%) were readmitted. Two patients called back for late positive cultures. Nine were readmitted with febrile neutropenia; 2 had positive cultures on readmission. All 4 patients with positive cultures were safely treated with appropriate antibiotics. The remaining 7 patients had uneventful readmissions. Average ANC (SD) at discharge was lower for patients readmitted versus those not readmitted (69 [70] vs. 196 [145], P≤0.001), as was absolute phagocyte count (APC) at discharge (97 [82] vs. 453 [431], P≤0.001). APC on admission was not significantly lower for those readmitted (165 [254] vs. 321 [388], P=0.09). Few patients required readmission; those with bacterial infections were easily identified and appropriately treated. Higher ANC or APC criteria for discharge would increase length of hospital stay without decreasing morbidity. A subset of patients admitted with febrile neutropenia can be safely discharged before count recovery without oral antibiotics.

Recent advances in the prevention and management of infections in children undergoing treatment for cancer

A major consequence of the intensive multi-modal chemotherapy commonly used to treat malignancies in childhood is life-threatening infection, frequently during periods of profound neutropenia. Recent advances have been made in all areas of management, from trying to prevent infection to getting patients off antimicrobials and home again in the shortest, safest way. Potential avenues of further research are outlined for readers to be aware of in the next few years.

Outpatient treatment for people with cancer who develop a low-risk febrile neutropaenic event

BACKGROUND

People with febrile neutropaenia are usually treated in a hospital setting. Recently, treatment with oral antibiotics has been proven to be as effective as intravenous therapy. However, the efficacy and safety of outpatient treatment have not been fully evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the efficacy (treatment failure and mortality) and safety (adverse events of antimicrobials) of outpatient treatment compared with inpatient treatment in people with cancer who have low-risk febrile neutropaenia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2018, Issue 11) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE via Ovid (from 1948 to November week 4, 2018), Embase via Ovid (from 1980 to 2018, week 48) and trial registries (National Cancer Institute, MetaRegister of Controlled Trials, Medical Research Council Clinical Trial Directory). We handsearched all references of included studies and major reviews.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing outpatient with inpatient treatment for people with cancer who develop febrile neutropaenia. The outpatient group included those who started treatment as an inpatient and completed the antibiotic course at home (sequential) as well as those who started treatment at home.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trial eligibility, methodological quality, and extracted data. Primary outcome measures were: treatment failure and mortality; secondary outcome measures considered were: duration of fever, adverse drug reactions to antimicrobial treatment, duration of neutropaenia, duration of hospitalisation, duration of antimicrobial treatment, and quality of life (QoL). We estimated risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for dichotomous data; we calculated weighted mean differences for continuous data. Random-effects meta-analyses and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

MAIN RESULTS

We included ten RCTs, six in adults (628 participants) and four in children (366 participants). We found no clear evidence of a difference in treatment failure between the outpatient and inpatient groups, either in adults (RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.85, I2 0%; six studies; moderate-certainty evidence) or children (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.99, I2 0%; four studies; moderate-certainty evidence). For mortality, we also found no clear evidence of a difference either in studies in adults (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.29 to 3.71; six studies; 628 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) or in children (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.15 to 2.70; three studies; 329 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).According to the type of intervention (early discharge or exclusively outpatient), meta-analysis of treatment failure in four RCTs in adults with early discharge (RR 1.48, 95% CI 0.74 to 2.95; P = 0.26, I2 0%; 364 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) was similar to the results of the exclusively outpatient meta-analysis (RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.62 to 2.13; P = 0.65, I2 19%; two studies; 264 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).Regarding the secondary outcome measures, we found no clear evidence of a difference between outpatient and inpatient groups in duration of fever (adults: mean difference (MD) 0.2, 95% CI -0.36 to 0.76, 1 study, 169 participants; low-certainty evidence) (children: MD -0.6, 95% CI -0.84 to 0.71, 3 studies, 305 participants; low-certainty evidence) and in duration of neutropaenia (adults: MD 0.1, 95% CI -0.59 to 0.79, 1 study, 169 participants; low-certainty evidence) (children: MD -0.65, 95% CI -0.1.86 to 0.55, 2 studies, 268 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). With regard to adverse drug reactions, although there was greater frequency in the outpatient group, we found no clear evidence of a difference when compared to the inpatient group, either in adult participants (RR 8.39, 95% CI 0.38 to 187.15; three studies; 375 participants; low-certainty evidence) or children (RR 1.90, 95% CI 0.61 to 5.98; two studies; 156 participants; low-certainty evidence).Four studies compared the hospitalisation time and found that the mean number of days of hospital stay was lower in the outpatient treated group by 1.64 days in adults (MD -1.64, 95% CI -2.22 to -1.06; 3 studies, 251 participants; low-certainty evidence) and by 3.9 days in children (MD -3.90, 95% CI -5.37 to -2.43; 1 study, 119 participants; low-certainty evidence). In the 3 RCTs of children in which days of antimicrobial treatment were analysed, we found no difference between outpatient and inpatient groups (MD -0.07, 95% CI -1.26 to 1.12; 305 participants; low-certainty evidence).We identified two studies that measured QoL: one in adults and one in children. QoL was slightly better in the outpatient group than in the inpatient group in both studies, but there was no consistency in the domains included.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Outpatient treatment for low-risk febrile neutropaenia in people with cancer probably makes little or no difference to treatment failure and mortality compared with the standard hospital (inpatient) treatment and may reduce time that patients need to be treated in hospital.

Episodes of fever in neutropenia in pediatric patients with cancer in Bern, Switzerland, 1993-2012

Fever in neutropenia (FN) is the most frequent potentially life threatening complication of chemotherapy for cancer. Prediction of the risk to develop complications, integrated into clinical decision rules, would allow for risk-stratified treatment of FN. This retrospective, single center cohort study in pediatric patients diagnosed with cancer before 17 years, covered two decades, 1993 to 2012. In total, 703 FN episodes in 291 patients with chemotherapy (maximum per patient, 9) were reported here. Twenty-nine characteristics of FN were collected: 6 were patient- and cancer-related, 8 were characteristics of history, 8 of clinical examination, and 7 laboratory results in peripheral blood, all known at FN diagnosis. In total 28 FN outcomes were assessed: 8 described treatment of FN, 6 described microbiologically defined infections (MDI), 4 clinically defined infections, 4 were additional clinical composite outcomes, and 6 outcomes were related to discharge. These data can mainly be used to study FN characteristics and their association with outcomes over time and between centers, and for derivation and external validation of clinical decision rules.

Management of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in pediatric oncology patients: A North American survey of pediatric hematology/oncology and pediatric infectious disease physicians

BACKGROUND

Chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) is traditionally managed with hospital admission for parenteral antibiotics until neutropenia resolves. Recent studies have explored risk stratification and the safety of managing "low-risk" patients as outpatients. Few studies have directly assessed pediatric provider preferences for managing FN.

PROCEDURE

We conducted a survey of practicing US and Canadian pediatric hematology/oncology (PHO) and pediatric infectious disease (PID) physicians to assess their FN management preferences using case scenarios with varying risk profiles.

RESULTS

Twenty-one percent (n = 186) of PHO and 32% (n = 123) of PID physicians completed the survey. Overall, both groups of providers agreed regarding which patients with FN could be managed outpatient. For a child with acute lymphoblastic leukemia receiving maintenance chemotherapy with an absolute neutrophil count (ANC) of 400 cells/μl, 35% (n = 66) of PHO and 49% (n = 60) of PID physicians would consider outpatient management (P = 0.02). Of those physicians selecting inpatient management, 41% (n = 49) of PHO and 52% (n = 33) of PID physicians would be willing to discharge the patient without an increase in ANC, if afebrile with a negative blood culture (P = 0.16). For a similar patient with an ANC of 100 cells/μl, only 23% (n = 35) of PHO and 42% (n = 39) of PID physicians would consider discharge without an increase in ANC (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the lack of established guidelines for low-risk pediatric FN, a significant proportion of North American physicians report willingness to modify traditional management. This reinforces the need for evidence-based low-risk criteria and outpatient management guidelines to optimize consistency of care for these patients.

Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer: an external validation study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to validate the 'Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) clinical decision rule (CDR) that predicts microbiologically documented infection (MDI) in children with cancer and fever and neutropenia (FN). We also investigated costs associated with current FN management strategies in Australia.

METHODS

Demographic, episode, outcome and cost data were retrospectively collected on 650 episodes of FN. We assessed the discrimination, calibration, sensitivity and specificity of the PICNICC CDR in our cohort compared with the derivation data set.

RESULTS

Using the original variable coefficients, the CDR performed poorly. After recalibration the PICNICC CDR had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve of 0.638 (95% CI 0.590-0.685) and calibration slope of 0.24. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the PICNICC CDR at presentation was 78.4%, 39.8%, 28.6% and 85.7%, respectively. For bacteraemia, the sensitivity improved to 85.2% and AUC-ROC to 0.71. Application at day 2, taking into consideration the proportion of MDI known (43%), further improved the sensitivity to 87.7%. Length of stay is the main contributor to cost of FN treatment, with an average cost per day of AUD 2183 in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

For prediction of any MDI, the PICNICC rule did not perform as well at presentation in our cohort as compared with the derivation study. However, for bacteraemia, the predictive ability was similar to that of the derivation study, highlighting the importance of recalibration using local data. Performance also improved after an overnight period of observation. Implementation of a low-risk pathway, using the PICNICC CDR after a short period of inpatient observation, is likely to be safe and has the potential to reduce health-care expenditure.

Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India

PURPOSE

The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort.

RESULTS

Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R² = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort.

CONCLUSION

An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use.

Risk-stratification management of febrile neutropenia in pediatric hematology-oncology patients: Results of a French nationwide survey

BACKGROUND

In 2012, new international guidelines for children with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) were issued, recommending reduced-intensity management strategy based on stratification of infectious risks. Some studies have highlighted practice disparities in different countries and within the same country. Our aim was to assess the current management strategies for the treatment of chemotherapy-induced FN in children in France.

PROCEDURE

This survey of all French pediatric oncology-hematology reference centers (n = 30) in late 2012 and early 2013 sent a standardized questionnaire to each center inquiring about their definition of an FN episode, its initial empiric treatment and ongoing management, use of management stratified by risk, and any criteria used for the risk assessment. Each center's management protocol was also analyzed.

RESULTS

All French reference centers participated in this survey, completing 88% of the questionnaire items. Definitions of both fever and neutropenia varied between centers. Ten centers used a risk-stratification strategy for initial management. In all, 42 probabilistic first-line antibiotic treatments were identified. After 48 hr of apyrexia, 17 units applied different forms of step-down therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Most French centers already offered some form of reduced-intensity or step-down therapy, although they differed substantially in their management of FN episodes. Risk stratification with validated tools is essential to facilitate the implementation of the international recommendations, which would ultimately help to standardize practices in France.

Management of fever and neutropenia in paediatric cancer patients: room for improvement?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Fever and neutropenia is the most common complication in the treatment of childhood cancer. This review will summarize recent publications that focus on improving the management of this condition as well as those that seek to optimize translational research efforts.

RECENT FINDINGS

A number of clinical decision rules are available to assist in the identification of low-risk fever and neutropenia however few have undergone external validation and formal impact analysis. Emerging evidence suggests acute fever and neutropenia management strategies should include time to antibiotic recommendations, and quality improvement initiatives have focused on eliminating barriers to early antibiotic administration. Despite reported increases in antimicrobial resistance, few studies have focused on the prediction, prevention, and optimal treatment of these infections and the effect on risk stratification remains unknown. A consensus guideline for paediatric fever and neutropenia research is now available and may help reduce some of the heterogeneity between studies that have previously limited the translation of evidence into clinical practice.

SUMMARY

Risk stratification is recommended for children with cancer and fever and neutropenia. Further research is required to quantify the overall impact of this approach and to refine exactly which children will benefit from early antibiotic administration as well as modifications to empiric regimens to cover antibiotic-resistant organisms.

Which Variables Are Useful for Predicting Severe Infection in Children With Febrile Neutropenia?

To distinguish children with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) at low risk of severe infection, the variables that are significant risk factors must be identified. Our objective was to identify them by applying evidence-based standards. This retrospective 2-center cohort study included all episodes of chemotherapy-induced FN in children in 2005 and 2006. The medical history, clinical, and laboratory data available at admission were collected. Severe infection was defined by bacteremia, a positive culture of a normally sterile body fluid, invasive fungal infection, or localized infection at high risk of extension. Univariate analysis identified potential predictive variables. A generalized mixed model was used to determine the adjusted variables that predict severe infection. We analyzed 372 FN episodes. Severe infections occurred in 16.1% of them. Variables predictive of severe infection at admission were: disease with high risk of prolonged neutropenia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.5), blood cancer (aOR=1.9), fever ≥38.5°C (aOR=3.7), and C-reactive protein level ≥90 mg/L (aOR=4.5). Now that we have identified these variables significantly associated with the risk of severe infection, they must be validated prospectively before combining the best predictive variables in a decision rule that can be used to distinguish children at low risk.