Risk calculation of developing type 2 diabetes in Libyan adults

Prediabetes management in the Middle East, Africa and Russia: Current status and call for action

Most data on the burden of diabetes and prediabetes are from countries where local infrastructure can support reliable estimates of the burden of non-communicable diseases. Countries in the Middle East and Africa, together with Russia, have a total population of almost 2 billion, but have been relatively overlooked by authors in this field. We reviewed the prevalence and drivers of prediabetes and diabetes across this large region. A large, and variable, burden of dysglycaemia exists, especially in Middle Eastern and North African countries, associated with high levels of obesity and sedentariness, with a generally lower prevalence in most other parts of Africa. The design and size of studies are highly variable, and more research to quantify the scale of the problem is needed. Local barriers to care relating to issues concerned with gender, consanguinity, lack of understanding of diabetes, lack of understanding of obesity as a health issue, and limited resource at a national level for tracking and intervention for diabetes and other non-communicable diseases. Lifestyle interventions with proven local cost-effectiveness, enhanced access to pharmacologic intervention, and societal interventions to promote better diet and more activity will be an important element in strategies to combat these adverse trends.

Detecting persons at risk for diabetes mellitus type 2 using FINDRISC: results from a community pharmacy-based study

Background

This cross-sectional study has been developed within the framework of the Italian project 'We love your heart' ('Ci sta a cuore il tuo cuore') and reports the results of the initial type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk assessment carried out in a big network of community pharmacies in Italy and Spain.

Methods

In total 4002 pharmacists from 854pharmacies were specifically trained to collect data and perform the evaluation of the probability of developing T2DM among pharmacy customers. The risk of developing T2DM within 10 years was evaluated using the FINDRISC.

Results

Overall, 7234 (22.1%) subjects were at low risk to develop the disease, whereas 43.3% were at slightly elevated risk (scores 7-11), 19.3% were at moderate (scores 12-14), 13.9% were at high (scores 15-20), and 1.4% were at very high risk (scores > 20). Spanish participants showed higher levels of risk than Italian (16.7 vs. 14.7%) taking the cut-off FINDRISC ≥ 15.

Conclusion

This study shows that considerable percentage of persons is likely to develop diabetes in the next 10 years. Analyses of the risk factors indicate that men were more susceptible to develop this disease, as well as the Spanish participants respect to Italian.

10-year risk estimation for type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary heart disease in Kuwait: a cross-sectional population-based study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coronary heart disease (CHD) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are major healthcare problems in Kuwait. The present study was designed to determine the prevalence of MetS, and to estimate the 10-year risk for developing T2DM and CHD among the general population in Kuwait.

METHODS

A descriptive, cross-sectional survey was undertaken in 1800 individuals without diabetes or a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). They were selected from six governorates using two stage convenience sampling. The questionnaire was developed using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISK), Framingham Risk Score [FRS] and the 2009 Joint Statement criteria for diagnosis of MetS as a framework. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used.

RESULTS

The response rate was 89.4%. More than half (60.8%; 95% CI: 58.4-63.2) of responders were either overweight or obese. One hundred and ninety seven (12.2%) subjects had blood pressure (BP) ≥ 140/90 mm Hg. Almost three-in-ten (28.3%: 26.2-30.6) subjects had fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels ≥ 5.6 mmol/l, of whom 86.0% and 14.0% had impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and screen detected T2DM, respectively. MetS was present in 512 (31.8%; 29.5-34.2) respondents. Just under one third (n = 481; 29.9%; 27.7-32.2) of participants were at moderate, high, or very high risk of developing T2DM, while 283 (17.6%: 15.8-19.6) were at moderate/high 10-year risk of developing CHD. Approximately one-in-ten (8.5%; 7.2-9.9) subjects were at moderate/high/very high 10-year risk of developing both T2DM/CHD. T2DM risk was higher for females compared to males (p < 0.001); however, the pattern was reversed in terms of the risk of developing CHD or T2DM/CHD. The risk of developing T2DM, CHD, or T2DM/CHD was greater among those aged ≥ 45 years, and those having MetS (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The current findings highlight the need for multifaceted interventions for prevention.

How diabetes risk assessment tools are implemented in practice: a systematic review

This review aimed to explore the extent of the use of diabetes risk assessment tools and to determine influential variables associated with the implementation of these tools. CINAHL, Google Scholar, ISI Citation Indexes, PubMed, and Scopus were searched from inception to January 2013. Studies that reported the use of diabetes risk assessment tools to identify individuals at risk of diabetes were included. Of the 1719 articles identified, 24 were included. Follow-up of high risk individuals for diagnosis of diabetes was conducted in 5 studies. Barriers to the uptake of diabetes risk assessment tools by healthcare practitioners included (1) attitudes toward the tools; (2) impracticality of using the tools and (3) lack of reimbursement and regulatory support. Individuals were reluctant to undertake self-assessment of diabetes risk due to (1) lack of perceived severity of type 2 diabetes; (2) impracticality of the tools; and (3) concerns related to finding out the results. The current use of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment scores as screening tools appears to be limited. Practical follow up systems as well as strategies to address other barriers to the implementation of diabetes risk assessment tools are essential and need to be developed.

Quantifying the risk of type 2 diabetes in East London using the QDScore: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Risk scores calculated from electronic patient records can be used to predict the risk of adults developing diabetes in the future.

AIM

To use a risk-prediction model on GPs' electronic health records in three inner-city boroughs, and to map the risk of diabetes by locality for commissioners, to guide possible interventions for targeting groups at high risk.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cross-sectional analysis of electronic general practice records from three deprived and ethnically diverse inner-city boroughs in London.

METHOD

A cross-sectional analysis of 519 288 electronic primary care records was performed for all people without diabetes aged 25-79 years. A validated risk score, the QDScore, was used to predict 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Descriptive statistics were generated, including subanalysis by deprivation and ethnicity. The proportion of people at high risk (≥20% risk) per general practice was geospatially mapped.

RESULTS

Data were obtained from 135 out of 145 general practices (91.3%); 1 in 10 people in this population were at high risk (≥20%) of developing type 2 diabetes within 10 years. Of those with known cardiovascular disease or hypertension, approximately 50% were at high risk. Male sex, increasing age, South Asian ethnicity, deprivation, obesity, and other comorbidities increased the risk. Geospatial mapping revealed hotspots of high risk.

CONCLUSION

Individual risk scores calculated from electronic records can be aggregated to produce population risk profiles to inform commissioning and public health planning. Specific localities were identified (the 'East London diabetes belt'), where preventive efforts should be targeted. This method could be used for other diseases and risk states, to inform targeted commissioning and preventive research.