Health outcomes coding trends in the US Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System during transition to International Classification of Diseases-10 coding system: A brief review

External Validation and Recalibration of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients with Ischaemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a highly prevalent disease that can provoke severe disability. We evaluate a predictive model based on the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) compiled by the Spain Health Ministry, obtained for the period 2008-2012 for patients with ischaemic stroke in Spain, to establish the model's validity and to optimise its calibration. The MBDS is the main clinical-administrative database for hospitalisations recorded in Spain, and to our knowledge, no predictive models for stroke mortality have previously been developed using this resource. The main study aim is to perform an external validation and recalibration of the coefficients of this predictive model with respect to a chronologically later cohort.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

External validation (testing the model on a different cohort to assess its performance) and recalibration (validation with optimisation of model coefficients) were performed using the MBDS for patients admitted for ischaemic stroke in the period 2016-2018. A cohort study was designed, in which a recalibrated model was obtained by applying the variables of the original model without their coefficients. The variables from the original model were then applied to the subsequent cohort, together with the coefficients from the initial model. The areas under the curve (AUC) of the recalibration and the external validation procedure were compared.

RESULTS

The recalibrated model produced an AUC of 0.743 and was composed of the following variables: age (odds ratio, OR:1.073), female sex (OR:1.143), ischaemic heart disease (OR:1.192), hypertension (OR:0.719), atrial fibrillation (OR:1.414), hyperlipidaemia (OR:0.652), heart failure (OR:2.133) and posterior circulation stroke (OR: 0.755). External validation produced an AUC of 0.726.

CONCLUSIONS

The recalibrated clinical model thus obtained presented moderate-high discriminant ability and was generalisable to predict death for patients with ischaemic stroke. Rigorous external validation slightly decreased the AUC but confirmed the validity of the baseline model for the chronologically later cohort.

Adverse drug reactions in hospitals: population estimates for Portugal and the ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM crosswalk

BACKGROUND

Adverse drug reactions (ADR), both preventable and non-preventable, are frequent and pose a significant burden. This study aimed to produce up-to-date estimates for ADR rates in hospitals, in Portugal, from 2010 to 2018. In addition, it explores possible pitfalls when crosswalking between ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM code sets for ADR identification.

METHODS

The Portuguese Hospital Morbidity Database was used to identify hospital episodes (outpatient or inpatient) with at least one ICD code of ADR. Since the study period spanned from 2010 to 2018, both ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes based on previously published studies were used to define episodes. This was an exploratory study, and descriptive statistics were used to provide ADR rates and summarise episode features for the full period (2010-2018) as well as for the ICD-9-CM (2010-2016) and ICD -10-CM (2017-2018) eras.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2018, ADR occurred in 162,985 hospital episodes, corresponding to 1.00% of the total number of episodes during the same period. Higher rates were seen in the oldest age groups. In the same period, the mean annual rate of episodes related to ADR was 174.2/100,000 population. The episode rate (per 100,000 population) was generally higher in males, except in young adults (aged '15-20', '25-30' and '30-35' years), although the overall frequency of ADR in hospital episodes was higher in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the ICD-10-CM transition, administrative health data in Portugal remain a feasible source for producing up-to-date estimates on ADR in hospitals. There is a need for future research to identify target recipients for preventive interventions and improve medication safety practices in Portugal.

Direct Versus Indirect Query Performance of ICD-9/-10 Coding to Identify Anaphylaxis

BACKGROUND

Anaphylaxis is an often under =diagnosed, severe allergic event for which epidemiological data are sporadic. Researchers have leveraged administrative and claims data algorithms to study large databases of anaphylactic events; however, little longitudinal data analysis is available after transition to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM).

OBJECTIVE

Study longitudinal trends in anaphylaxis incidence using direct and indirect query methods.

METHODS

Emergency department (ED) and inpatient data were analyzed from a large state health care administration database from 2011 to 2020. Incidence was calculated using direct queries of anaphylaxis ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes and indirect queries using a symptom-based ICD-9-CM algorithm and forward mapped ICD-10-CM version to identify undiagnosed anaphylaxis episodes and to assess algorithm performance at the population level.

RESULTS

An average of 2.4 million inpatient and 7.5 million ED observations/y were analyzed. Using the direct query method, annual ED anaphylaxis cases increased steadily from 1,454 (2011) to 4,029 (2019) then declined to 3,341 in 2020 during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In contrast, inpatient cases remained relatively steady, with a slight decline after 2015 during the ICD version transition, until a significant drop occurred in 2020. Using the indirect queries, anaphylaxis cases increased markedly after the ICD transition year, especially involving drug-related anaphylaxis.

CONCLUSIONS

Nontypical drug associations with anaphylaxis episodes using the ICD-10-CM version of the algorithm suggest poor performance with drug-related codes. Further, the increased granularity of ICD-10-CM identified potential limitations of a previously validated symptom-based ICD-9-CM algorithm used to detect undiagnosed cases.

The US Food and Drug Administration Sentinel System: a national resource for a learning health system

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) created the Sentinel System in response to a requirement in the FDA Amendments Act of 2007 that the agency establish a system for monitoring risks associated with drug and biologic products using data from disparate sources. The Sentinel System has completed hundreds of analyses, including many that have directly informed regulatory decisions. The Sentinel System also was designed to support a national infrastructure for a learning health system. Sentinel governance and guiding principles were designed to facilitate Sentinel's role as a national resource. The Sentinel System infrastructure now supports multiple non-FDA projects for stakeholders ranging from regulated industry to other federal agencies, international regulators, and academics. The Sentinel System is a working example of a learning health system that is expanding with the potential to create a global learning health system that can support medical product safety assessments and other research.

Falls and Fractures in Patients with Parkinson's Disease-Related Psychosis Treated with Pimavanserin vs Atypical Antipsychotics: A Cohort Study

Background

Parkinson’s disease-related psychosis increases patients’ risk of falls. Pimavanserin is an atypical antipsychotic approved in the USA in 2016 for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease-related psychosis.

Objective

We aimed to compare the risk of falls/fractures among patients with Parkinson’s disease-related psychosis treated with pimavanserin vs other atypical antipsychotics.

Patients and Methods

We identified a cohort of patients with Parkinson’s disease-related psychosis aged ≥ 40 years initiating either pimavanserin or a comparator antipsychotic (clozapine, quetiapine, risperidone, olanzapine, aripiprazole, brexpiprazole) in US commercial insurance and supplementary Medicare claims (2015–2019). Comparators were propensity score matched 2:1 with pimavanserin initiators; incidence rates of falls/fractures were compared using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

We identified 112 eligible pimavanserin initiators and 982 comparators. Pimavanserin initiators were younger and had fewer severe comorbidities, indicators of impairment, and healthcare encounters, though they had higher Parkinson’s disease medication use. The crude incidence rates [cases/100 person-years] (95% CI) for composite falls/fractures were 17.8 (7.7–35.0) for pimavanserin and 40.8 (35.0–47.4) for comparators. Matching retained 108 pimavanserin initiators and 216 comparators—all characteristics were well balanced after matching—with a matched IRR (pimavanserin vs comparator) of 0.71 (95% CI 0.27–1.67). Sensitivity analysis IRR estimates were consistently below 1.00, with a sensitivity analysis not requiring a diagnosis of psychosis resulting in an IRR estimate of 0.55 (95% CI 0.34–0.86).

Conclusions

The results of this study do not suggest an increase in the risk of falls or fractures associated with pimavanserin compared with other antipsychotics in patients with Parkinson’s disease-related psychosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest a decreased risk.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40801-021-00284-1.

Health outcomes coding trends in the US Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System during transition to International Classification of Diseases-10 coding system: A brief review

Background and purpose

The transition from International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, clinical modification (ICD‐9‐CM) to ICD‐10‐CM poses a challenge to epidemiologic studies that use diagnostic codes to identify health outcomes and covariates. We evaluated coding trends in health outcomes in the US Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System during the transition.

Methods

We reviewed all health outcomes coding trends reports on the Sentinel website through November 30, 2019 and analyzed trends in incidence and prevalence across the ICD‐9‐CM and ICD‐10‐CM eras by visual inspection.

Results

We identified 78 unique health outcomes (22 acute, 32 chronic, and 24 acute or chronic) and 140 time‐series graphs of incidence and prevalence. The reports also included code lists and code mapping methods used. Of the 140 graphs reviewed, 81 (57.9%) showed consistent trends across the ICD‐9‐CM and ICD‐10‐CM eras, while 51 (36.4%) and 8 (5.7%) graphs showed inconsistent and uncertain trends, respectively. Chronic HOIs and acute/chronic HOIs had higher proportions of consistent trends in prevalence definitions (83.9% and 78.3%, respectively) than acute HOIs (28.6%). For incidence, 55.6% of acute HOIs showed consistent trends, while 41.2% of chronic HOIs and 39.3% of acute/chronic HOIs showed consistency.

Conclusions

Researchers using ICD‐10‐CM algorithms obtained by standardized mappings from ICD‐9‐CM algorithms should assess the mapping performance before use. The Sentinel reports provide a valuable resource for researchers who need to develop and assess mapping strategies. The reports could benefit from additional information about the algorithm selection process and additional details on monthly incidence and prevalence rates.

Key points

We reviewed health outcomes coding trends reports on the US FDA Sentinel website through November 30, 2019 and analyzed trends in incidence and prevalence across the International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification (ICD‐9‐CM) and ICD‐10‐CM eras by code mapping method and the type of health outcomes of interest (acute, chronic, acute or chronic).

More than a third of the 140 time‐series graphs of incidence and prevalence of health outcomes showed inconsistent or uncertain trends. Consistency in trends varied by code mapping method, type of health outcomes of interest, and whether the measurement was incidence or prevalence.

Studies using ICD‐9‐CM‐based algorithms mapped to ICD‐10‐CM codes need to assess the performance of the mappings and conduct manual refinement of the algorithms as needed before using them.