The influence of admission characteristics on outcome: evidence from a medium secure forensic cohort

Readmission after discharge from a medium secure service between 1999 and 2017: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous research into outcomes after treatment in medium secure psychiatric hospitals has mostly relied on pre-millennium data.

AIMS

To examine patient and inpatient service-related factors associated with readmission within 2 years following discharge to the community or open conditions from conditions of medium security.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of 137 patients discharged either to the community or to open conditions from one 64-bed South Wales Regional Medium Secure Hospital Unit between July 1999 and November 2017 was completed using data from healthcare records to document demographics, diagnosis and nature of index offences together with researcher-completed ratings of inpatient progress using the Dangerousness Understanding Recovery and Urgency Manual (DUNDRUM) Programme Completion and DUNDRUM Recovery scales. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent associations between inpatient progress according to these measures and readmission.

RESULTS

Forty-three patients (31%) were readmitted within 2 years of discharge and 23 (17%) in breach of legal conditions on discharge. Most readmitted patients (n = 29, 67%) returned directly to medium secure care. There were significant binary level associations between readmission and severity of the index offences (lower), number of adverse childhood experiences (higher), history of drug misuse (more likely) and number of previous psychiatric admissions (higher). Binary logistic regression confirmed that these relationships were not independent. No inpatient service-related variables, according to DUNDRUM scale scores, showed an independent association with readmission within 2 years post-discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of medium security hospital patients who were readmitted within 2 years of discharge aligns with estimates found in earlier national research using the same follow-up period. Since levels of inpatient progress bore little if any relationship to longer term outcomes, our findings highlight the need for investigating factors in the discharge environment that are linked to readmission. It is possible that readmission may indicate effective monitoring and responsive care to the changing needs of patients, but a better understanding of this is essential.

Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in a medium secure psychiatric hospital population

Patients in medium secure hospitals may be at particularly increased risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and complications. We undertook a service evaluation involving all current in-patients within a single, English medium secure hospital to describe the uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine among this population. Data regarding capacity to consent to the vaccine, acceptance/refusal of this (and reasons for refusal) and demographics was retrospectively collected from the patients' clinical records and analysed. In total, 85 patients (92.4% of eligible patients) had capacity to decide if they wanted the COVID-19 vaccine. Of these 68 (80.0%) consented and 17 (20.0%) declined to consent. A similar proportion of patients aged under and over 40 years old consented to have the vaccine. Those from a Black Asian minority ethnic background were more likely to decline the vaccine than White British patients. The reasons for capacitous refusal appeared similar to those seen in the general population.

Readmission after discharge from a medium secure unit

Aims and method

We examined readmission to psychiatric hospital of 550 patients discharged from one medium secure unit over 20 years. Multiple sources were used to obtain readmission data.

Results

Readmission was common, particularly to non-secure psychiatric hospitals. At least 339 patients (61.6%) were readmitted to any psychiatric hospital (mean follow-up 9.5 years), with over a third (37.6%) subsequently being readmitted to medium- or high-security or both. Of those discharged directly to the community, having previous in-patient treatment and a Mental Health Act classification of mental illness were associated with shorter time to first readmission.

Clinical implications

The long-standing nature of disorders is evident in the high rates of readmission overall and the need for readmission to medium and high secure services, suggesting that these patients require long-term follow-up and support from mental health services.

Prediction of violent crime on discharge from secure psychiatric hospitals: A clinical prediction rule (FoVOx)

BACKGROUND

Current approaches to assess violence risk in secure hospitals are resource intensive, limited by accuracy and authorship bias and may have reached a performance ceiling. This study seeks to develop scalable predictive models for violent offending following discharge from secure psychiatric hospitals.

METHODS

We identified all patients discharged from secure hospitals in Sweden between January 1, 1992 and December 31, 2013. Using multiple Cox regression, pre-specified criminal, sociodemographic, and clinical risk factors were included in a model that was tested for discrimination and calibration in the prediction of violent crime at 12 and 24 months post-discharge. Risk cut-offs were pre-specified at 5% (low vs. medium) and 20% (medium vs. high).

RESULTS

We identified 2248 patients with 2933 discharges into community settings. We developed a 12-item model with good measures of calibration and discrimination (area under the curve=0.77 at 12 and 24 months). At 24 months post-discharge, using the 5% cut-off, sensitivity was 96% and specificity was 21%. Positive and negative predictive values were 19% and 97%, respectively. Using the 20% cut-off, sensitivity was 55%, specificity 83% and the positive and negative predictive values were 37% and 91%, respectively. The model was used to develop a free online tool (FoVOx).

INTERPRETATION

We have developed a prediction score in a Swedish cohort of patients discharged from secure hospitals that can assist in clinical decision-making. Scalable predictive models for violence risk are possible in specific patient groups and can free up clinical time for treatment and management. Further evaluation in other countries is needed.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust (202836/Z/16/Z) and the Swedish Research Council. The funding sources had no involvement in writing of the manuscript or decision to submit or in data collection, analysis or interpretation or any aspect pertinent to the study.