Broad- and narrow-sense validity performance of three polygenic risk score methods for prostate cancer risk assessment

Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Evaluating Approaches for Constructing Polygenic Risk Scores for Prostate Cancer in Men of African and European Ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRS) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRS based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer risk variants from multi-ancestry GWAS and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269 ). GW-PRS models were trained using a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269 . Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California/Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI=0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI=0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer OR of 1.83 (95% CI=1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI=2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. However, compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC=0.679, 95% CI=0.659-0.700 and AUC=0.845, 95% CI=0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer OR (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.87-2.26 and OR=2.21, 95% CI=2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation data. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the multi-ancestry PRS 269 constructed with fine-mapping.

Inherited risk assessment and its clinical utility for predicting prostate cancer from diagnostic prostate biopsies

BACKGROUND

Many studies on prostate cancer (PCa) germline variants have been published in the last 15 years. This review critically assesses their clinical validity and explores their utility in prediction of PCa detection rates from prostate biopsy.

METHODS

An integrative review was performed to (1) critically synthesize findings on PCa germline studies from published papers since 2016, including risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), polygenic risk score methods such as genetic risk score (GRS), and rare pathogenic mutations (RPMs); (2) exemplify the findings in a large population-based cohort from the UK Biobank (UKB); (3) identify gaps for implementing inherited risk assessment in clinic based on experience from a healthcare system; (4) evaluate available GRS data on their clinical utility in predicting PCa detection rates from prostate biopsies; and (5) describe a prospective germline-based biopsy trial to address existing gaps.

RESULTS

SNP-based GRS and RPMs in four genes (HOXB13, BRCA2, ATM, and CHEK2) were significantly and consistently associated with PCa risk in large well-designed studies. In the UKB, positive family history, RPMs in the four implicated genes, and a high GRS (>1.5) identified 8.12%, 1.61%, and 17.38% of men to be at elevated PCa risk, respectively, with hazard ratios of 1.84, 2.74, and 2.39, respectively. Additionally, the performance of GRS for predicting PCa detection rate on prostate biopsy was consistently supported in several retrospective analyses of transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-biopsy cohorts. Prospective studies evaluating the performance of all three inherited measures in predicting PCa detection rate from contemporary multiparametric MRI (mpMRI)-based biopsy are lacking. A multicenter germline-based biopsy trial to address these gaps is warranted.

CONCLUSIONS

The complementary performance of three inherited risk measures in PCa risk stratification is consistently supported. Their clinical utility in predicting PCa detection rate, if confirmed in prospective clinical trials, may improve current decision-making for prostate biopsy.

The Role of Electronic Health Records in Advancing Genomic Medicine

Recent advances in genomic technology and widespread adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) have accelerated the development of genomic medicine, bringing promising research findings from genome science into clinical practice. Genomic and phenomic data, accrued across large populations through biobanks linked to EHRs, have enabled the study of genetic variation at a phenome-wide scale. Through new quantitative techniques, pleiotropy can be explored with phenome-wide association studies, the occurrence of common complex diseases can be predicted using the cumulative influence of many genetic variants (polygenic risk scores), and undiagnosed Mendelian syndromes can be identified using EHR-based phenotypic signatures (phenotype risk scores). In this review, we trace the role of EHRs from the development of genome-wide analytic techniques to translational efforts to test these new interventions to the clinic. Throughout, we describe the challenges that remain when combining EHRs with genetics to improve clinical care.

Identification of fifty-seven novel loci for abdominal wall hernia development and their biological and clinical implications: results from the UK Biobank

PURPOSE

Familial aggregation is known for both hernia development and recurrence. To date, only one genome-wide association study (GWAS) limited to inguinal hernia has been reported that identified four risk-associated loci. We aim to investigate polygenic architecture of abdominal wall hernia development and recurrence.

METHODS

A GWAS was performed in 367,394 subjects from the UK Biobank to investigate the polygenic architecture of abdominal wall hernia subtypes (inguinal, femoral, umbilical, ventral) and identify specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with their risk. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis was performed to identify genes whose expression levels are associated with these SNPs. A genetic risk score (GRS) was used to assess the cumulative effect of multiple independent risk-associated SNPs on hernia development and recurrence in independent subjects (n = 82,064).

RESULTS

Heritability (h²) was 0.12, 0.06, 0.16, and 0.07 for inguinal, femoral, umbilical, and ventral hernias, respectively. A high-level of genetic correlation (r_g) was found among these subtypes of hernia. We confirmed the aforementioned four loci and identified 57 novel loci (P < 5 × 10^-8), including 55, 3, 5, and 3 loci for inguinal, femoral, umbilical, and ventral hernias, respectively. Significantly different expression levels between risk/reference alleles of SNPs were found for 145 genes, including TGF-β2 and AIG1 for inguinal hernia risk and CALD1 for umbilical hernia risk. Finally, higher GRS deciles were significantly associated with increased risk for hernia development (P_trend = 3.33 × 10^-38) and recurrent hernia repair surgery (P_trend = 3.64 × 10^-14).

CONCLUSION

These novel results have potential biological and clinical implications for hernia management in high-risk patients.

Calibration of polygenic risk scores is required prior to clinical implementation: results of three common cancers in UKB

BACKGROUND

SNP-based polygenic risk scores have recently been adopted in the clinic for risk assessment of some common diseases. Their validity is supported by a consistent trend between their percentile rank and disease risk in populations. However, for clinical use at the individual level, the reliability of score values is necessary considering they are directly used to calculate remaining lifetime risk.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the reliability of polygenic score values to estimate prostate cancer (PCa), breast cancer (BCa) and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in three incident cohorts from the UK Biobank (n>500 000).

METHODS

Cancer-specific Genetic Risk Score (GRS), a well-established population-standardised polygenic risk score, was calculated.

RESULTS

A systematic bias was found between estimated risks (GRS values) and observed risks; β (95% CI) was 0.67 (0.58-0.76), 0.74 (0.65-0.84) and 0.82 (0.75-0.89), respectively, for PCa, BCa and CRC, all significantly lower than 1.00 (perfect calibration), p<0.001. After applying a correction factor derived from a training data set, the β for corrected GRS values in an independent testing data set were 1.09 (1.05-1.13), 1.00 (0.88-1.12) and 1.08 (0.96-1.21), respectively, for PCa, BCa and CRC.

CONCLUSION

Assessing the calibration of polygenic risk scores is necessary and feasible to ensure their reliability prior to clinical implementation.