Characterizing prostate cancer risk through multi-ancestry genome-wide discovery of 187 novel risk variants

The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups.

A 39 kb structural variant causing Lynch Syndrome detected by optical genome mapping and nanopore sequencing

Lynch Syndrome (LS) is a hereditary cancer syndrome caused by pathogenic germline variants in one of the four mismatch repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2. It is characterized by a significantly increased risk of multiple cancer types, particularly colorectal and endometrial cancer, with autosomal dominant inheritance. Access to precise and sensitive methods for genetic testing is important, as early detection and prevention of cancer is possible when the variant is known. We present here two unrelated Norwegian families with family histories strongly suggestive of LS, where immunohistochemical and microsatellite instability analyses indicated presence of a pathogenic variant in MSH2, but targeted exon sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) were negative. Using Bionano optical genome mapping, we detected a 39 kb insertion in the MSH2 gene. Precise mapping of the insertion breakpoints and inserted sequence was performed by low-coverage whole-genome sequencing with an Oxford Nanopore MinION. The same variant was present in both families, and later found in other families from the same region of Norway, indicative of a founder event. To our knowledge, this is the first diagnosis of LS caused by a structural variant using these technologies. We suggest that structural variant detection be performed when LS is suspected but not confirmed with first-tier standard genetic testing.

Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Evaluating Approaches for Constructing Polygenic Risk Scores for Prostate Cancer in Men of African and European Ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRS) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRS based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer risk variants from multi-ancestry GWAS and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269 ). GW-PRS models were trained using a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269 . Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California/Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI=0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI=0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer OR of 1.83 (95% CI=1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI=2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. However, compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC=0.679, 95% CI=0.659-0.700 and AUC=0.845, 95% CI=0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer OR (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.87-2.26 and OR=2.21, 95% CI=2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation data. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the multi-ancestry PRS 269 constructed with fine-mapping.

Biochemical activity induced by a germline variation in KLK3 (PSA) associates with cellular function and clinical outcome in prostate cancer

Genetic variation at the 19q13.3 KLK locus is linked with prostate cancer susceptibility. The non-synonymous KLK3 SNP, rs17632542 (c.536T>C; Ile163Thr-substitution in PSA) is associated with reduced prostate cancer risk, however, the functional relevance is unknown. Here, we identify that the SNP variant-induced change in PSA biochemical activity as a previously undescribed function mediating prostate cancer pathogenesis. The 'Thr' PSA variant led to small subcutaneous tumours, supporting reduced prostate cancer risk. However, 'Thr' PSA also displayed higher metastatic potential with pronounced osteolytic activity in an experimental metastasis in-vivo model. Biochemical characterization of this PSA variant demonstrated markedly reduced proteolytic activity that correlated with differences in in-vivo tumour burden. The SNP is associated with increased risk for aggressive disease and prostate cancer-specific mortality in three independent cohorts, highlighting its critical function in mediating metastasis. Carriers of this SNP allele had reduced serum total PSA and a higher free/total PSA ratio that could contribute to late biopsy decisions and delay in diagnosis. Our results provide a molecular explanation for the prominent 19q13.3 KLK locus, rs17632542 SNP, association with a spectrum of prostate cancer clinical outcomes.

Prostate cancer risk stratification improvement across multiple ancestries with new polygenic hazard score

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer risk stratification using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) demonstrates considerable promise in men of European, Asian, and African genetic ancestries, but there is still need for increased accuracy. We evaluated whether including additional SNPs in a prostate cancer polygenic hazard score (PHS) would improve associations with clinically significant prostate cancer in multi-ancestry datasets.

METHODS

In total, 299 SNPs previously associated with prostate cancer were evaluated for inclusion in a new PHS, using a LASSO-regularized Cox proportional hazards model in a training dataset of 72,181 men from the PRACTICAL Consortium. The PHS model was evaluated in four testing datasets: African ancestry, Asian ancestry, and two of European Ancestry-the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) and the ProtecT study. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare men with high versus low PHS for association with clinically significant, with any, and with fatal prostate cancer. The impact of genetic risk stratification on the positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was also measured.

RESULTS

The final model (PHS290) had 290 SNPs with non-zero coefficients. Comparing, for example, the highest and lowest quintiles of PHS290, the hazard ratios (HRs) for clinically significant prostate cancer were 13.73 [95% CI: 12.43-15.16] in ProtecT, 7.07 [6.58-7.60] in African ancestry, 10.31 [9.58-11.11] in Asian ancestry, and 11.18 [10.34-12.09] in COSM. Similar results were seen for association with any and fatal prostate cancer. Without PHS stratification, the PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer in ProtecT was 0.12 (0.11-0.14). For the top 20% and top 5% of PHS290, the PPV of PSA testing was 0.19 (0.15-0.22) and 0.26 (0.19-0.33), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate better genetic risk stratification for clinically significant prostate cancer than prior versions of PHS in multi-ancestry datasets. This is promising for implementing precision-medicine approaches to prostate cancer screening decisions in diverse populations.

A prospective prostate cancer screening programme for men with pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (IMPACT): initial results from an international prospective study

BACKGROUND

Lynch syndrome is a rare familial cancer syndrome caused by pathogenic variants in the mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, or PMS2, that cause predisposition to various cancers, predominantly colorectal and endometrial cancer. Data are emerging that pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes increase the risk of early-onset aggressive prostate cancer. The IMPACT study is prospectively assessing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in men with germline mismatch repair pathogenic variants. Here, we report the usefulness of PSA screening, prostate cancer incidence, and tumour characteristics after the first screening round in men with and without these germline pathogenic variants.

METHODS

The IMPACT study is an international, prospective study. Men aged 40-69 years without a previous prostate cancer diagnosis and with a known germline pathogenic variant in the MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 gene, and age-matched male controls who tested negative for a familial pathogenic variant in these genes were recruited from 34 genetic and urology clinics in eight countries, and underwent a baseline PSA screening. Men who had a PSA level higher than 3·0 ng/mL were offered a transrectal, ultrasound-guided, prostate biopsy and a histopathological analysis was done. All participants are undergoing a minimum of 5 years' annual screening. The primary endpoint was to determine the incidence, stage, and pathology of screening-detected prostate cancer in carriers of pathogenic variants compared with non-carrier controls. We used Fisher's exact test to compare the number of cases, cancer incidence, and positive predictive values of the PSA cutoff and biopsy between carriers and non-carriers and the differences between disease types (ie, cancer vs no cancer, clinically significant cancer vs no cancer). We assessed screening outcomes and tumour characteristics by pathogenic variant status. Here we present results from the first round of PSA screening in the IMPACT study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00261456, and is now closed to accrual.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 28, 2012, and March 1, 2020, 828 men were recruited (644 carriers of mismatch repair pathogenic variants [204 carriers of MLH1, 305 carriers of MSH2, and 135 carriers of MSH6] and 184 non-carrier controls [65 non-carriers of MLH1, 76 non-carriers of MSH2, and 43 non-carriers of MSH6]), and in order to boost the sample size for the non-carrier control groups, we randomly selected 134 non-carriers from the BRCA1 and BRCA2 cohort of the IMPACT study, who were included in all three non-carrier cohorts. Men were predominantly of European ancestry (899 [93%] of 953 with available data), with a mean age of 52·8 years (SD 8·3). Within the first screening round, 56 (6%) men had a PSA concentration of more than 3·0 ng/mL and 35 (4%) biopsies were done. The overall incidence of prostate cancer was 1·9% (18 of 962; 95% CI 1·1-2·9). The incidence among MSH2 carriers was 4·3% (13 of 305; 95% CI 2·3-7·2), MSH2 non-carrier controls was 0·5% (one of 210; 0·0-2·6), MSH6 carriers was 3·0% (four of 135; 0·8-7·4), and none were detected among the MLH1 carriers, MLH1 non-carrier controls, and MSH6 non-carrier controls. Prostate cancer incidence, using a PSA threshold of higher than 3·0 ng/mL, was higher in MSH2 carriers than in MSH2 non-carrier controls (4·3% vs 0·5%; p=0·011) and MSH6 carriers than MSH6 non-carrier controls (3·0% vs 0%; p=0·034). The overall positive predictive value of biopsy using a PSA threshold of 3·0 ng/mL was 51·4% (95% CI 34·0-68·6), and the overall positive predictive value of a PSA threshold of 3·0 ng/mL was 32·1% (20·3-46·0).

INTERPRETATION

After the first screening round, carriers of MSH2 and MSH6 pathogenic variants had a higher incidence of prostate cancer compared with age-matched non-carrier controls. These findings support the use of targeted PSA screening in these men to identify those with clinically significant prostate cancer. Further annual screening rounds will need to confirm these findings.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, The Ronald and Rita McAulay Foundation, the National Institute for Health Research support to Biomedical Research Centres (The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust; Oxford; Manchester and the Cambridge Clinical Research Centre), Mr and Mrs Jack Baker, the Cancer Council of Tasmania, Cancer Australia, Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, Cancer Council of Victoria, Cancer Council of South Australia, the Victorian Cancer Agency, Cancer Australia, Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (AECC), the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), the Institut Català de la Salut, Autonomous Government of Catalonia, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute, Swedish Cancer Society, General Hospital in Malmö Foundation for Combating Cancer.

Additional SNPs improve risk stratification of a polygenic hazard score for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Polygenic hazard scores (PHS) can identify individuals with increased risk of prostate cancer. We estimated the benefit of additional SNPs on performance of a previously validated PHS (PHS46).

MATERIALS AND METHOD

180 SNPs, shown to be previously associated with prostate cancer, were used to develop a PHS model in men with European ancestry. A machine-learning approach, LASSO-regularized Cox regression, was used to select SNPs and to estimate their coefficients in the training set (75,596 men). Performance of the resulting model was evaluated in the testing/validation set (6,411 men) with two metrics: (1) hazard ratios (HRs) and (2) positive predictive value (PPV) of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. HRs were estimated between individuals with PHS in the top 5% to those in the middle 40% (HR95/50), top 20% to bottom 20% (HR80/20), and bottom 20% to middle 40% (HR20/50). PPV was calculated for the top 20% (PPV80) and top 5% (PPV95) of PHS as the fraction of individuals with elevated PSA that were diagnosed with clinically significant prostate cancer on biopsy.

RESULTS

166 SNPs had non-zero coefficients in the Cox model (PHS166). All HR metrics showed significant improvements for PHS166 compared to PHS46: HR95/50 increased from 3.72 to 5.09, HR80/20 increased from 6.12 to 9.45, and HR20/50 decreased from 0.41 to 0.34. By contrast, no significant differences were observed in PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating 120 additional SNPs (PHS166 vs PHS46) significantly improved HRs for prostate cancer, while PPV of PSA testing remained the same.

Mainstreamed genetic testing of breast cancer patients in two hospitals in South Eastern Norway

Studies have shown that a significant number of eligible breast cancer patients are not offered genetic testing or referral to genetic counseling. To increase access to genetic testing in South Eastern Norway, testing has since 2014 been offered directly to breast cancer patients by surgeons and oncologists. This practice is termed “mainstreamed genetic testing”. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent patients in South Eastern Norway are offered testing. Three hundred and sixty one patients diagnosed in 2016 and 2017 at one regional and one university hospital in South Eastern Norway were included. Data on whether the patients fulfilled the criteria, whether they had been offered testing and if they were tested were collected. In total, 26.6% (96/361) fulfilled the criteria for testing. Seventy five percent (69/92) of these were offered testing, and 71.7% (66/92) were tested. At the university hospital, 90.2% (37/41) of eligible patients were offered testing, and at the regional hospital 62.7% (32/51). Fifty two percent (12/23) of eligible patient not offered testing were younger than 50 years at time of diagnosis. As many as 95.4% (125/131) of all patients who were offered testing, wanted to be tested. The majority of patients who fulfilled the criteria were offered testing, supporting the practice of mainstreamed genetic testing. There were nevertheless differences in rates of testing between the hospitals that affected all groups of patients, indicating that genetic testing may not be equally accessible to all patients. We suggest that efforts should be made to increase awareness and improve routines for genetic testing of breast cancer patients in Norway.

Polygenic hazard score is associated with prostate cancer in multi-ethnic populations

Genetic models for cancer have been evaluated using almost exclusively European data, which could exacerbate health disparities. A polygenic hazard score (PHS1) is associated with age at prostate cancer diagnosis and improves screening accuracy in Europeans. Here, we evaluate performance of PHS2 (PHS1, adapted for OncoArray) in a multi-ethnic dataset of 80,491 men (49,916 cases, 30,575 controls). PHS2 is associated with age at diagnosis of any and aggressive (Gleason score ≥ 7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥ 10 ng/mL, or nodal/distant metastasis) cancer and prostate-cancer-specific death. Associations with cancer are significant within European (n = 71,856), Asian (n = 2,382), and African (n = 6,253) genetic ancestries (p < 10-180). Comparing the 80th/20th PHS2 percentiles, hazard ratios for prostate cancer, aggressive cancer, and prostate-cancer-specific death are 5.32, 5.88, and 5.68, respectively. Within European, Asian, and African ancestries, hazard ratios for prostate cancer are: 5.54, 4.49, and 2.54, respectively. PHS2 risk-stratifies men for any, aggressive, and fatal prostate cancer in a multi-ethnic dataset.

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of prostate cancer identifies new susceptibility loci and informs genetic risk prediction

Prostate cancer is a highly heritable disease with large disparities in incidence rates across ancestry populations. We conducted a multiancestry meta-analysis of prostate cancer genome-wide association studies (107,247 cases and 127,006 controls) and identified 86 new genetic risk variants independently associated with prostate cancer risk, bringing the total to 269 known risk variants. The top genetic risk score (GRS) decile was associated with odds ratios that ranged from 5.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.84-5.29) for men of European ancestry to 3.74 (95% CI, 3.36-4.17) for men of African ancestry. Men of African ancestry were estimated to have a mean GRS that was 2.18-times higher (95% CI, 2.14-2.22), and men of East Asian ancestry 0.73-times lower (95% CI, 0.71-0.76), than men of European ancestry. These findings support the role of germline variation contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk, with the GRS offering an approach for personalized risk prediction.

The CHEK2 Variant C.349A>G Is Associated with Prostate Cancer Risk and Carriers Share a Common Ancestor

The identification of recurrent founder variants in cancer predisposing genes may have important implications for implementing cost-effective targeted genetic screening strategies. In this study, we evaluated the prevalence and relative risk of the CHEK2 recurrent variant c.349A>G in a series of 462 Portuguese patients with early-onset and/or familial/hereditary prostate cancer (PrCa), as well as in the large multicentre PRACTICAL case-control study comprising 55,162 prostate cancer cases and 36,147 controls. Additionally, we investigated the potential shared ancestry of the carriers by performing identity-by-descent, haplotype and age estimation analyses using high-density SNP data from 70 variant carriers belonging to 11 different populations included in the PRACTICAL consortium. The CHEK2 missense variant c.349A>G was found significantly associated with an increased risk for PrCa (OR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.1-3.2). A shared haplotype flanking the variant in all carriers was identified, strongly suggesting a common founder of European origin. Additionally, using two independent statistical algorithms, implemented by DMLE+2.3 and ESTIAGE, we were able to estimate the age of the variant between 2300 and 3125 years. By extending the haplotype analysis to 14 additional carrier families, a shared core haplotype was revealed among all carriers matching the conserved region previously identified in the high-density SNP analysis. These findings are consistent with CHEK2 c.349A>G being a founder variant associated with increased PrCa risk, suggesting its potential usefulness for cost-effective targeted genetic screening in PrCa families.

An integrative multi-omics analysis to identify candidate DNA methylation biomarkers related to prostate cancer risk

It remains elusive whether some of the associations identified in genome-wide association studies of prostate cancer (PrCa) may be due to regulatory effects of genetic variants on CpG sites, which may further influence expression of PrCa target genes. To search for CpG sites associated with PrCa risk, here we establish genetic models to predict methylation (N = 1,595) and conduct association analyses with PrCa risk (79,194 cases and 61,112 controls). We identify 759 CpG sites showing an association, including 15 located at novel loci. Among those 759 CpG sites, methylation of 42 is associated with expression of 28 adjacent genes. Among 22 genes, 18 show an association with PrCa risk. Overall, 25 CpG sites show consistent association directions for the methylation-gene expression-PrCa pathway. We identify DNA methylation biomarkers associated with PrCa, and our findings suggest that specific CpG sites may influence PrCa via regulating expression of candidate PrCa target genes.

Interim Results from the IMPACT Study: Evidence for Prostate-specific Antigen Screening in BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

BACKGROUND

Mutations in BRCA2 cause a higher risk of early-onset aggressive prostate cancer (PrCa). The IMPACT study is evaluating targeted PrCa screening using prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) in men with germline BRCA1/2 mutations.

OBJECTIVE

To report the utility of PSA screening, PrCa incidence, positive predictive value of PSA, biopsy, and tumour characteristics after 3 yr of screening, by BRCA status.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Men aged 40-69 yr with a germline pathogenic BRCA1/2 mutation and male controls testing negative for a familial BRCA1/2 mutation were recruited. Participants underwent PSA screening for 3 yr, and if PSA > 3.0 ng/ml, men were offered prostate biopsy.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

PSA levels, PrCa incidence, and tumour characteristics were evaluated. Statistical analyses included Poisson regression offset by person-year follow-up, chi-square tests for proportion t tests for means, and Kruskal-Wallis for medians.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 3027 patients (2932 unique individuals) were recruited (919 BRCA1 carriers, 709 BRCA1 noncarriers, 902 BRCA2 carriers, and 497 BRCA2 noncarriers). After 3 yr of screening, 527 men had PSA > 3.0 ng/ml, 357 biopsies were performed, and 112 PrCa cases were diagnosed (31 BRCA1 carriers, 19 BRCA1 noncarriers, 47 BRCA2 carriers, and 15 BRCA2 noncarriers). Higher compliance with biopsy was observed in BRCA2 carriers compared with noncarriers (73% vs 60%). Cancer incidence rate per 1000 person years was higher in BRCA2 carriers than in noncarriers (19.4 vs 12.0; p =  0.03); BRCA2 carriers were diagnosed at a younger age (61 vs 64 yr; p =  0.04) and were more likely to have clinically significant disease than BRCA2 noncarriers (77% vs 40%; p =  0.01). No differences in age or tumour characteristics were detected between BRCA1 carriers and BRCA1 noncarriers. The 4 kallikrein marker model discriminated better (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.73) for clinically significant cancer at biopsy than PSA alone (AUC = 0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

After 3 yr of screening, compared with noncarriers, BRCA2 mutation carriers were associated with a higher incidence of PrCa, younger age of diagnosis, and clinically significant tumours. Therefore, systematic PSA screening is indicated for men with a BRCA2 mutation. Further follow-up is required to assess the role of screening in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We demonstrate that after 3 yr of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, we detect more serious prostate cancers in men with BRCA2 mutations than in those without these mutations. We recommend that male BRCA2 carriers are offered systematic PSA screening.

Author Correction: Association analyses of more than 140,000 men identify 63 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci

In the version of this article initially published, the name of author Manuela Gago-Dominguez was misspelled as Manuela Gago Dominguez. The error has been corrected in the HTML and PDF version of the article.

Abstract 227: Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry

We performed an in-depth and well-powered investigation of genetic variation across the cancer susceptibility region at chromosome 8q24 (127.6-129.0 Mb) to search for novel risk variants associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk in the European ancestry population. We combined genotyped and imputed data from the PRACTICAL/ELLIPSE OncoArray and iCOGS consortia consisting of 71,535 PrCa cases and 52,935 controls of European ancestry. Variants with high imputation quality score (&gt;0.8) were retained for a total of 5,600 overlapping variants between the two datasets. Associations of genetic variants with PCa risk were evaluated using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for country and ten principal components. The marginal risk estimates for the 5,600 variants that passed quality control were combined by a fixed effects meta-analysis. A meta-stepwise selection was performed on variants marginally associated with PCa risk from the meta results (P&lt;0.05). A polygenic risk score and the contribution to the familial relative risk of PCa were estimated for variants from the final model. Of the 5,600 variants at 8q24 retained for analysis, 1,268 (23%) were associated with PCa risk at P&lt;5x10-8 while 2,772 (49%) were marginally associated at P&lt;0.05. In the stepwise model, 12 variants remained statistically significantly associated with PCa risk with conditional meta p-values between 2.93x10-137 and 4.28x10-15. The independent stepwise signals were confirmed by Joint Analysis of Marginal (JAM) summary statistics, which defined the credible sets of variants driving those signals. Three of the variants (rs1914295, rs190257175, rs12549761) were weakly correlated (r2≤0.17) with any known PCa risk marker, and may define novel association signals. Men in the top 1% of the polygenic risk score distribution had a 3.97-fold relative risk (95%CI=3.87-4.07) compared to men with "average risk" (25th-75th percentiles). The 12 independent signals at 8q24 capture 11.54% (95%CI=9.86-13.65) of the familial relative risk of PCa, which is approximately one quarter of the total PCa familial relative risk explained by known genetic risk factors. Most of the independently associated signals have good evidence for biologic functionality; in particular, many reside within putative transcriptional enhancers and/or binding sites for AR and FOXA1 transcription factors in prostate cell lines. In summary, we defined 12 independent association signals among men of European ancestry, with three of the risk variants representing putative novel association signals. Whereas the individual associations of these variants with PCa risk are relatively modest (ORs&lt;2.0), their cumulative effects are substantial, and their contribution to the overall familial relative risk of PCa is substantially greater than any other known prostate cancer risk locus.

Citation Format: Marco Matejcic, Edward J. Saunders, Tokhir Dadaev, Mark Brook, Ali Amin Al Olama, Fredrick R. Schumacher, Sonja I. Berndt, Sara Benlloch, Kenneth Muir, Koveela Govindasami, Victoria L. Stevens, Susan M. Gapstur, Catherine M. Tangen, Jyotsna Batra, Judith Clements, APCB (Australian Prostate Cancer Bio Resource), Henrik Gronberg, Nora Pashayan, Johanna Schleutker, Demetrius Albanes, Alicja Wolk, Catharine West, Lorelei Mucci, Peter Kraft, Géraldine Cancel-Tassin, Stella Koutros, Karina Dalsgaard Sorensen, Lovise Maehle, Eli Marie Grindedal, Sara Strom, David E. Neal, Freddie C. Hamdy, Jenny L. Donovan, Ruth C. Travis, Robert J. Hamilton, Sue Ann Ingles, Barry Rosenstein, Yong-Jie Lu, Graham G. Giles, Adam S. Kibel, Ana Vega, Jeanette Bensen, Manolis Kogevinas, Fredrik Wiklund, Stephen Chanock, Douglas F. Easton, Rosalind A. Eeles, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, David V. Conti, Christopher A. Haiman. Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 227.

Association analyses of more than 140,000 men identify 63 new prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and fine-mapping efforts to date have identified more than 100 prostate cancer (PrCa)-susceptibility loci. We meta-analyzed genotype data from a custom high-density array of 46,939 PrCa cases and 27,910 controls of European ancestry with previously genotyped data of 32,255 PrCa cases and 33,202 controls of European ancestry. Our analysis identified 62 novel loci associated (P < 5.0 × 10-8) with PrCa and one locus significantly associated with early-onset PrCa (≤55 years). Our findings include missense variants rs1800057 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.16; P = 8.2 × 10-9; G>C, p.Pro1054Arg) in ATM and rs2066827 (OR = 1.06; P = 2.3 × 10-9; T>G, p.Val109Gly) in CDKN1B. The combination of all loci captured 28.4% of the PrCa familial relative risk, and a polygenic risk score conferred an elevated PrCa risk for men in the ninetieth to ninety-ninth percentiles (relative risk = 2.69; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.55-2.82) and first percentile (relative risk = 5.71; 95% CI: 5.04-6.48) risk stratum compared with the population average. These findings improve risk prediction, enhance fine-mapping, and provide insight into the underlying biology of PrCa1.

Fine-mapping of prostate cancer susceptibility loci in a large meta-analysis identifies candidate causal variants

Prostate cancer is a polygenic disease with a large heritable component. A number of common, low-penetrance prostate cancer risk loci have been identified through GWAS. Here we apply the Bayesian multivariate variable selection algorithm JAM to fine-map 84 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, using summary data from a large European ancestry meta-analysis. We observe evidence for multiple independent signals at 12 regions and 99 risk signals overall. Only 15 original GWAS tag SNPs remain among the catalogue of candidate variants identified; the remainder are replaced by more likely candidates. Biological annotation of our credible set of variants indicates significant enrichment within promoter and enhancer elements, and transcription factor-binding sites, including AR, ERG and FOXA1. In 40 regions at least one variant is colocalised with an eQTL in prostate cancer tissue. The refined set of candidate variants substantially increase the proportion of familial relative risk explained by these known susceptibility regions, which highlights the importance of fine-mapping studies and has implications for clinical risk profiling.

BRCA mutation carrier detection. A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the traditional family history approach and the testing of all patients with breast cancer

Background

Identification of BRCA mutation carriers among patients with breast cancer (BC) involves costs and gains. Testing has been performed according to international guidelines, focusing on family history (FH) of breast and/or ovarian cancer. An alternative is testing all patients with BC employing sequencing of the BRCA genes and Multiplex Ligation Probe Amplification (MLPA).

Patients and methods

A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis, employing data from Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål (OUH-U) and a decision tree, was done. The societal and the healthcare perspectives were focused and a lifetime perspective employed. The comparators were the traditional FH approach used as standard of care at OUH-U in 2013 and the intervention (testing all patients with BC) performed in 2014 and 2015 at the same hospital. During the latter period, 535 patients with BC were offered BRCA testing with sequencing and MLPA. National 2014 data on mortality rates and costs were implemented, a 3% discount rate used and the costing year was 2015. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated in euros (€) per life-year gained (LYG).

Results

The net healthcare cost (healthcare perspective) was €40 503/LYG. Including all resource use (societal perspective), the cost was €5669/LYG. The univariate sensitivity analysis documented the unit cost of the BRCA test and the number of LYGs the prominent parameters affecting the result.

Diagnostic BRCA testing of all patients with BC was superior to the FH approach and cost-effective within the frequently used thresholds (healthcare perspective) in Norway (€60 000–€80 000/LYG).

Prostate-specific antigen velocity in a prospective prostate cancer screening study of men with genetic predisposition

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2017.429.

BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation spectrum - an update on mutation distribution in a large cancer genetics clinic in Norway

Background

Founder mutations in the two breast cancer genes, BRCA1 and BRCA2, have been described in many populations, among these are Ashkenazi-Jewish, Polish, Norwegian and Icelandic. Founder mutation testing in patients with relevant ancestry has been a cost-efficient approach in such populations. Four Norwegian BRCA1 founder mutations were defined by haplotyping in 2001, and accounted for 68% of BRCA1 mutation carriers at the time. After 15 more years of genetic testing, updated knowledge on the mutation spectrum of both BRCA1 and BRCA2 in Norway is needed. In this study, we aim at describing the mutation spectrum and frequencies in the BRCA1/2 carrier population of the largest clinic of hereditary cancer in Norway.

Methods

A total of 2430 BRCA1 carriers from 669 different families, and 1092 BRCA2 carriers from 312 different families were included in a quality of care study. All variants were evaluated regarding pathogenicity following ACMG/ENIGMA criteria. The variants were assessed in AlaMut and supplementary databases to determine whether they were known to be founder mutations in other populations.

Results

There were 120 different BRCA1 and 87 different BRCA2 variants among the mutation carriers. Forty-six per cent of the registered BRCA1/2 families (454/981) had a previously reported Norwegian founder mutation. The majority of BRCA1/2 mutations (71%) were rare, each found in only one or two families. Fifteen per cent of BRCA1 families and 25% of BRCA2 families had one of these rare variants. The four well-known Norwegian BRCA1 founder mutations previously confirmed through haplotyping were still the four most frequent mutations in BRCA1 carriers, but the proportion of BRCA1 mutation carriers accounted for by these mutations had fallen from 68 to 52%, and hence the founder effect was weaker than previously described.

Conclusions

The spectrum of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in the carrier population at Norway’s largest cancer genetics clinic is diverse, and with a weaker founder effect than previously described. As a consequence, retesting the families that previously have been tested with specific tests/founder mutation tests should be a prioritised strategy to find more mutation positive families and possibly prevent cancer in healthy relatives.

Prostate-specific antigen velocity in a prospective prostate cancer screening study of men with genetic predisposition

BACKGROUND

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and PSA-velocity (PSAV) have been used to identify men at risk of prostate cancer (PrCa). The IMPACT study is evaluating PSA screening in men with a known genetic predisposition to PrCa due to BRCA1/2 mutations. This analysis evaluates the utility of PSA and PSAV for identifying PrCa and high-grade disease in this cohort.

METHODS

PSAV was calculated using logistic regression to determine if PSA or PSAV predicted the result of prostate biopsy (PB) in men with elevated PSA values. Cox regression was used to determine whether PSA or PSAV predicted PSA elevation in men with low PSAs. Interaction terms were included in the models to determine whether BRCA status influenced the predictiveness of PSA or PSAV.

RESULTS

1634 participants had ⩾3 PSA readings of whom 174 underwent PB and 45 PrCas diagnosed. In men with PSA >3.0 ng ml-l, PSAV was not significantly associated with presence of cancer or high-grade disease. PSAV did not add to PSA for predicting time to an elevated PSA. When comparing BRCA1/2 carriers to non-carriers, we found a significant interaction between BRCA status and last PSA before biopsy (P=0.031) and BRCA2 status and PSAV (P=0.024). However, PSAV was not predictive of biopsy outcome in BRCA2 carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

PSA is more strongly predictive of PrCa in BRCA carriers than non-carriers. We did not find evidence that PSAV aids decision-making for BRCA carriers over absolute PSA value alone.

The Norwegian PMS2 founder mutation c.989-1G > T shows high penetrance of microsatellite instable cancers with normal immunohistochemistry

Background

Using immunohistochemistry (IHC) to select cases for mismatch repair (MMR) genetic testing, we failed to identify a large kindred with the deleterious PMS2 mutation c.989-1G > T. The purpose of the study was to examine the sensitivity of IHC and microsatellite instability-analysis (MSI) to identify carriers of the mutation, and to estimate its penetrance and expressions.

Methods

All carriers and obligate carriers of the mutation were identified. All cancer diagnoses were confirmed. IHC and MSI-analysis were performed on available tumours. Penetrances of cancers included in the Amsterdam and the Bethesda Criteria, for MSI-high tumours and MSI-high and low tumours were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier algorithm.

Results

Probability for co-segregation of the mutation and cancers by chance was 0.000004. Fifty-six carriers or obligate carriers were identified. There was normal staining for PMS2 in 15/18 (83.3%) of tumours included in the AMS1/AMS2/Bethesda criteria. MSI-analysis showed that 15/21 (71.4%) of tumours were MSI-high and 4/21 (19.0%) were MSI-low. Penetrance at 70 years was 30.6% for AMS1 cancers (colorectal cancers), 42.8% for AMS2 cancers, 47.2% for Bethesda cancers, 55.6% for MSI-high and MSI-low cancers and 52.2% for MSI-high cancers.

Conclusions

The mutation met class 5 criteria for pathogenicity. IHC was insensitive in detecting tumours caused by the mutation. Penetrance of cancers that displayed MSI was 56% at 70 years. Besides colorectal cancers, the most frequent expressions were carcinoma of the endometrium and breast in females and stomach and prostate in males.

Current clinical criteria for Lynch syndrome are not sensitive enough to identify MSH6 mutation carriers

Background

Reported prevalence, penetrance and expression of deleterious mutations in the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2, may reflect differences in the clinical criteria used to select families for DNA testing. The authors have previously reported that clinical criteria are not sensitive enough to identify MMR mutation carriers among incident colorectal cancer cases.

Objective

To describe the sensitivity of the criteria when applied to families with a demonstrated MMR mutation.

Methods

Families with an aggregation of colorectal cancers were examined for deleterious MMR mutations according to the Mallorca guidelines. All families with a detected MMR mutation as of November 2009 were reclassified according to the Amsterdam and Bethesda criteria.

Results

Sixty-nine different DNA variants were identified in a total of 129 families. The original Amsterdam clinical criteria were met by 38%, 12%, 78% and 25% of families with mutations in MSH2, MSH6, MLH1 and PMS2, respectively. Corresponding numbers for the revised Amsterdam criteria were 62%, 48%, 87% and 38%. Similarly, each of the four clinical Bethesda criteria had low sensitivity for identifying MSH6 or PMS2 mutations.

Conclusion

Amsterdam criteria and each of the Bethesda criteria were inadequate for identifying MSH6 mutation-carrying kindreds. MSH6 mutations may be more common than currently assumed, and the penetrance/expression of MSH6 mutations, as derived from families meeting current clinical criteria, may be misleading. To increase detection rate of MMR mutation carriers, all cancers in the Lynch syndrome tumour spectrum should be subjected to immunohistochemical analysis and/or analysis for microsatellite instability.

Germ-line mutations in mismatch repair genes associated with prostate cancer

Genetic predisposition to prostate cancer includes multiple common variants with a low penetrance (single nucleotide polymorphisms) and rare variants with higher penetrance. The mismatch repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 are associated with Lynch syndrome where colon and endometrial cancers are the predominant phenotypes. The purpose of our study was to investigate whether germ-line mutations in these genes may be associated with prostate cancer. One hundred and six male carriers or obligate carriers of MMR mutations were identified. Nine had contracted prostate cancer. Immunohistochemical analysis was done on tumor tissue from eight of the nine tumors. Observed incidence, cumulative risk at 60 and 70 years of age, age of onset, and Gleason score were compared with expected as assessed from population-based series. Absence of gene product from the mutated MMR gene was found in seven of eight tumors. Expected number of prostate cancers was 1.52 compared with 9 observed (P < 0.01). Mean age of onset of prostate cancer was 60.4 years compared with 66.6 expected (P = 0.006); the number of men with a Gleason score between 8 and 10 was significantly higher than expected (P < 0.00001). Kaplan-Meier analysis suggested that cumulative risk by 70 years in MMR mutation carriers may be 30% (SE, 0.088) compared with 8.0% in the general population. This is similar to the high risk associated with BRCA2 mutations. To our knowledge, this study is the first to indicate that the MMR genes may be among the rare genetic variants that confer a high risk of prostate cancer when mutated.