Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus)

Epidemiology and Clinical Course of Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in New Endemic Area for Hantavirus Infection in Croatia

BACKGROUND

Hantaviruses remain an important case of emerging and re-emerging infections in human medicine. This study aimed to analyse the epidemiology, clinical presentation, and outcome of hantavirus infections in the western part of Republic of Croatia, a new geographical area for hantavirus infections.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of medical records of patients treated for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) at the infectious diseases Clinic of the Clinical Hospital Center in Rijeka, Croatia, from 1 January 2014, to 31 December 2021.

RESULTS

During the eight-year period, 251 patients were hospitalized and treated for HFRS, with epidemic outbreaks in years 2014 and 2021. Most patients had a typical clinical course of HFRS and received supportive care. Serological analysis revealed the Puumala Virus (PUUV) as the predominant etiology of the disease. Epidemiological analysis revealed clustering of infections in the region of Gorski Kotar and spread to the area on the Mediterranean coast (Adriatic Sea), which was previously considered an area free from hantavirus infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented results indicate the spread of hantavirus infections in Croatia from the central low-lying parts of the country to the tourist-attractive western area adjacent to the Mediterranean coast, which was previously considered free of hantavirus infections.

A Comparison of Small Rodent Assemblages after a 20 Year Interval in the Alps

Human-induced environmental alterations in the Alps may importantly affect small mammal species, but evidence in this sense is limited. We live-trapped small rodents in the Central-Eastern Italian Alps in three close-by habitat types (rocky scree, alpine grassland, and heath) at 2100 m a.s.l. during summer-fall, in 1997 and 2016. We compared small rodent assemblages through a Redundancy Detrended Analysis (RDA). In both surveys, we detected two specialist species, i.e., the common vole (Microtus arvalis) and the snow vole (Chionomys nivalis), and, unexpectedly, the forest generalist bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In 1997, grassland was mainly occupied by the common vole, while the bank vole and the snow vole were sympatric in the other habitats. In 2016, the snow vole was detected only in the scree, while other species did not show distribution changes. We discuss a series of hypotheses that might have driven the differences observed across decades, among which is a species-specific response to abiotic and biotic environmental alterations, with the alpine habitat specialist moving out of sub-optimal habitats. We encourage further research on this topic, e.g., via long-term longitudinal studies.

Machine learning identifies straightforward early warning rules for human Puumala hantavirus outbreaks

Human Puumala virus (PUUV) infections in Germany fluctuate multi-annually, following fluctuations of the bank vole population size. We applied a transformation to the annual incidence values and established a heuristic method to develop a straightforward robust model for the binary human infection risk at the district level. The classification model was powered by a machine-learning algorithm and achieved 85% sensitivity and 71% precision, despite using only three weather parameters from the previous years as inputs, namely the soil temperature in April of two years before and in September of the previous year, and the sunshine duration in September of two years before. Moreover, we introduced the PUUV Outbreak Index that quantifies the spatial synchrony of local PUUV-outbreaks, and applied it to the seven reported outbreaks in the period 2006-2021. Finally, we used the classification model to estimate the PUUV Outbreak Index, achieving 20% maximum uncertainty.

Enhancing monitoring and transboundary collaboration for conserving migratory species under global change: The priority case of the red kite

Calls for urgent action to conserve biodiversity under global change are increasing, and conservation of migratory species in this context poses special challenges. In the last two decades the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) has provided a framework for several subsidiary instruments including action plans for migratory bird species, but the effectiveness and transferability of these plans remain unclear. Such laws and policies have been credited with positive outcomes for the conservation of migratory species, but the lack of international coordination and on-ground implementation pose major challenges. While research on migratory populations has received growing attention, considerably less emphasis has been given to integrating ecological information throughout the annual cycle for examining strategies to conserve migratory species at multiple scales in the face of global change. We fill this gap through a case study examining the ecological status and conservation of a migratory raptor and facultative scavenger, the red kite (Milvus milvus), whose current breeding range is limited to Europe and is associated with agricultural landscapes and restricted to the temperate zone. Based on our review, conservation actions have been successful at recovering red kite populations within certain regions. Populations however remain depleted along the southern-most edge of the geographic range where many migratory red kites from northern strongholds overwinter. This led us to a forward-looking and integrated strategy that emphasizes international coordination involving researchers and conservation practitioners to enhance the science-policy-action interface. We identify and explore key issues for conserving the red kite under global change, including enhancing conservation actions within and outside protected areas, recovering depleted populations, accounting for climate change, and transboundary coordination in adaptive conservation and management actions. The integrated conservation strategy is sufficiently general such that it can be adapted to inform conservation of other highly mobile species subject to global change.

Mast seeding promotes evolution of scatter-hoarding

Many plant species worldwide are dispersed by scatter-hoarding granivores: animals that hide seeds in numerous, small caches for future consumption. Yet, the evolution of scatter-hoarding is difficult to explain because undefended caches are at high risk of pilferage. Previous models have attempted to solve this problem by giving cache owners large advantages in cache recovery, by kin selection, or by introducing reciprocal pilferage of 'shared' seed resources. However, the role of environmental variability has been so far overlooked in this context. One important form of such variability is masting, which is displayed by many plant species dispersed by scatterhoarders. We use a mathematical model to investigate the influence of masting on the evolution of scatter-hoarding. The model accounts for periodically varying annual seed fall, caching and pilfering behaviour, and the demography of scatterhoarders. The parameter values are based mostly on research on European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis). Starvation of scatterhoarders between mast years decreases the population density that enters masting events, which leads to reduced seed pilferage. Satiation of scatterhoarders during mast events lowers the reproductive cost of caching (i.e. the cost of caching for the future rather than using seeds for current reproduction). These reductions promote the evolution of scatter-hoarding behaviour especially when interannual variation in seed fall and the period between masting events are large. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

The status of fertility control for rodents-recent achievements and future directions

Management of overabundant rodents at a landscape scale is complex but often required to sustainably reduce rodent abundance below damage thresholds. Current conventional techniques such as poisoning are not species specific, with some approaches becoming increasingly unacceptable to the general public. Fertility control, first proposed for vertebrate pest management over 5 decades ago, has gained public acceptance because it is perceived as a potentially more species-specific and humane approach compared with many lethal methods. An ideal fertility control agent needs to induce infertility across one or more breeding seasons, be easily delivered to an appropriate proportion of the population, be species specific with minimal side-effects (behavioral or social structure changes), and be environmentally benign and cost effective. To date, effective fertility control of rodents has not been demonstrated at landscape scales and very few products have achieved registration. Reproductive targets for fertility control include disrupting the hormonal feedback associated with the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis, gonad function, fertilization, and/or early implantation. We review progress on the oral delivery of various agents for which laboratory studies have demonstrated efficacy in females and/or males and synthesize progress with the development and/or use of synthetic steroids, plant extracts, ovarian specific peptides, and immunocontraceptive vaccines. There are promising results for field application of synthetic steroids (levonorgestrel, quinestrol), chemosterilants (4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide), and some plant extracts (triptolide). For most fertility control agents, more research is essential to enable their efficient and cost-effective delivery such that rodent impacts at a population level are mitigated and food security is improved.

Population cycles and outbreaks of small rodents: ten essential questions we still need to solve

Most small rodent populations in the world have fascinating population dynamics. In the northern hemisphere, voles and lemmings tend to show population cycles with regular fluctuations in numbers. In the southern hemisphere, small rodents tend to have large amplitude outbreaks with less regular intervals. In the light of vast research and debate over almost a century, we here discuss the driving forces of these different rodent population dynamics. We highlight ten questions directly related to the various characteristics of relevant populations and ecosystems that still need to be answered. This overview is not intended as a complete list of questions but rather focuses on the most important issues that are essential for understanding the generality of small rodent population dynamics.

Mixed Effects of Habitat Degradation and Resources on Hantaviruses in Sympatric Wild Rodent Reservoirs within a Neotropical Forest

Understanding the ecology of rodent-borne hantaviruses is critical to assessing the risk of spillover to humans. Longitudinal surveys have suggested that hantaviral prevalence in a given host population is tightly linked to rodent ecology and correlates with changes in the species composition of a rodent community over time and/or habitat composition. We tested two hypotheses to identify whether resource addition and/or habitat composition may affect hantavirus prevalence among two sympatric reservoir hosts in a neotropical forest: (i) increased food resources will alter the rodent community and thus hantaviral prevalence; and (ii) host abundance and viral seroprevalence will be associated with habitat composition. We established a baseline of rodent-virus prevalence in three grid pairs of distinct habitat compositions and subjected one grid of each pair to resource augmentation. Increased rodent species diversity was observed on grids where food was added versus untreated control grids during the first post-treatment sampling session. Resource augmentation changed species community composition, yet it did not affect the prevalence of hantavirus in the host population over time, nor was there evidence of a dilution effect. Secondly, we show that the prevalence of the virus in the respective reservoir hosts was associated with habitat composition at two spatial levels, independent of resource addition, supporting previous findings that habitat composition is a primary driver of the prevalence of hantaviruses in the neotropics.

Spatial dynamics of a zoonotic orthohantavirus disease through heterogenous data on rodents, rodent infections, and human disease

Zoonotic diseases are challenging to study from the ecological point of view as, broadly speaking, datasets tend to be either detailed on a small spatial extent, or coarse on a large spatial extent. Also, there are many ways to assess zoonotic disease transmission systems, from pathogens to hosts to humans. We explore the complementarity of datasets considering the pathogen in its host, the host and human cases in the context of Puumala orthohantavirus infection in Germany. We selected relevant environmental predictors using a conceptual framework based on resource-based habitats. This framework assesses the functions, and associated environmental resources of the pathogen and associated host. A resource-based habitat framework supports variable selection and result interpretation. Multiplying ‘keyholes’ to view a zoonotic disease transmission system is valuable, but requires a strong conceptual framework to select and interpret environmental explanatory variables. This study highlights the usefulness of a structured, ecology-based approach to study drivers of zoonotic diseases at the level of virus, host, and human - not only for PUUV but also for other zoonotic pathogens. Our results show that human disease cases are best explained by a combination of variables related to zoonotic pathogen circulation and human exposure.

[Climate change - physical and mental consequences]

Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.

Spatial and temporal patterns of human Puumala virus (PUUV) infections in Germany

Background

Worldwide, the number of recorded human hantavirus infections as well as the number of affected countries is on the rise. In Europe, most human hantavirus infections are caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV), with bank voles (Myodes glareolus) as reservoir hosts. Generally, infection outbreaks have been related to environmental conditions, particularly climatic conditions, food supply for the reservoir species and land use. However, although attempts have been made, the insufficient availability of environmental data is often hampering accurate temporal and spatially explicit models of human hantavirus infections.

Methods

In the present study, dynamics of human PUUV infections between 2001 and 2015 were explored using ArcGIS in order to identify spatio-temporal patterns.

Results

Percentage cover of forest area was identified as an important factor for the spatial pattern, whereas beech mast was found explaining temporal patterns of human PUUV infections in Germany. High numbers of infections were recorded in 2007, 2010 and 2012 and areas with highest records were located in Baden-Wuerttemberg (southwest Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany).

Conclusion

More reliable data on reservoir host distribution, pathogen verification as well as an increased awareness of physicians are some of the factors that should improve future human infection risk assessments in Germany.

Puumala hantavirus infections in bank vole populations: host and virus dynamics in Central Europe

BACKGROUND

In Europe, bank voles (Myodes glareolus) are widely distributed and can transmit Puumala virus (PUUV) to humans, which causes a mild to moderate form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, called nephropathia epidemica. Uncovering the link between host and virus dynamics can help to prevent human PUUV infections in the future. Bank voles were live trapped three times a year in 2010-2013 in three woodland plots in each of four regions in Germany. Bank vole population density was estimated and blood samples collected to detect PUUV specific antibodies.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that fluctuation of PUUV seroprevalence is dependent not only on multi-annual but also on seasonal dynamics of rodent host abundance. Moreover, PUUV infection might affect host fitness, because seropositive individuals survived better from spring to summer than uninfected bank voles. Individual space use was independent of PUUV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides robust estimations of relevant patterns and processes of the dynamics of PUUV and its rodent host in Central Europe, which are highly important for the future development of predictive models for human hantavirus infection risk.

Long-term population patterns of rodents and associated damage in German forestry

BACKGROUND

Several rodent species can damage forest trees, especially at young tree age in afforestation. Population outbreaks of field voles (Microtus agrestis L.) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus Schreber) in particular can cause losses.

RESULTS

Analyses of long-term time series indicate good synchrony of population abundance in rodent species associated with damage in forestry. This synchrony could be related to the effect of beech (Fagus spec.) mast in the previous year on population growth rates of both species. In shorter time series from Eastern Germany, damage in forestry was mostly associated with autumn abundances of rodents. Environmental factors such as beech mast and snow cover did not explain additional variation in rodent damage to trees.

CONCLUSIONS

Beech mast is a good indicator of long-term rodent abundance in Northern German afforestation areas. However, rodent damage to forestry in Central Germany did not seem to depend on environmental parameters other than rodent abundance at large scale. As a result, there is still uncertainty about the link between environmental predictors and rodent damage to forestry, and further experimental work is required to identify suitable environmental drivers and their interplay with other potential factors such as the local predator community. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Reservoir-Driven Heterogeneous Distribution of Recorded Human Puumala virus Cases in South-West Germany

Endemic regions for Puumala virus (PUUV) are located in the most affected federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg, South-West Germany, where high numbers of notified human hantavirus disease cases have been occurring for a long time. The distribution of human cases in Baden-Wuerttemberg is, however, heterogeneous, with a high number of cases recorded during 2012 in four districts (H districts) but a low number or even no cases recorded in four other districts (L districts). Bank vole monitoring during 2012, following a beech (Fagus sylvatica) mast year, resulted in the trapping of 499 bank voles, the host of PUUV. Analyses indicated PUUV prevalences of 7-50% (serological) and 1.8-27.5% (molecular) in seven of eight districts, but an absence of PUUV in one L district. The PUUV prevalence differed significantly between bank voles in H and L districts. In the following year 2013, 161 bank voles were trapped, with reduced bank vole abundance in almost all investigated districts except one. In 2013, no PUUV infections were detected in voles from seven of eight districts. In conclusion, the linear modelling approach indicated that the heterogeneous distribution of human PUUV cases in South-West Germany was caused by different factors including the abundance of PUUV RNA-positive bank voles, as well as by the interaction of beech mast and the proportional coverage of beech and oak (Quercus spec.) forest per district. These results can aid developing local public health risk management measures and early warning models.

Validation of the Puumala virus rapid field test for bank voles in Germany

Puumala virus (PUUV) causes many human infections in large parts of Europe and can lead to mild to moderate disease. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the only reservoir of PUUV in Central Europe. A commercial PUUV rapid field test for rodents was validated for bank-vole blood samples collected in two PUUV-endemic regions in Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg). A comparison of the results of the rapid field test and standard ELISAs indicated a test efficacy of 93-95%, largely independent of the origin of the antigens used in the ELISA. In ELISAs, reactivity for the German PUUV strain was higher compared to the Swedish strain but not compared to the Finnish strain, which was used for the rapid field test. In conclusion, the use of the rapid field test can facilitate short-term estimation of PUUV seroprevalence in bank-vole populations in Germany and can aid in assessing human PUUV infection risk.

Evidence for selection maintaining MHC diversity in a rodent species despite strong density fluctuations

Strong spatiotemporal variation in population size often leads to reduced genetic diversity limiting the adaptive potential of individual populations. Key genes of adaptive variation are encoded by the immune genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) playing an essential role in parasite resistance. How MHC variation persists in rodent populations that regularly experience population bottlenecks remains an important topic in evolutionary genetics. We analysed the consequences of strong population fluctuations on MHC class II DRB exon 2 diversity in two distant common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations in three consecutive years using a high-throughput sequencing approach. In 143 individuals, we detected 25 nucleotide alleles translating into 14 unique amino acid MHC alleles belonging to at least three loci. Thus, the overall allelic diversity and amino acid distance among the remaining MHC alleles, used as a surrogate for the range of pathogenic antigens that can be presented to T-cells, are still remarkably high. Both study populations did not show significant population differentiation between years, but significant differences were found between sites. We concluded that selection processes seem to be strong enough to maintain moderate levels of MHC diversity in our study populations outcompeting genetic drift, as the same MHC alleles were conserved between years. Differences in allele frequencies between populations might be the outcome of different local parasite pressures and/or genetic drift. Further understanding of how pathogens vary across space and time will be crucial to further elucidate the mechanisms maintaining MHC diversity in cyclic populations.

Beech Fructification and Bank Vole Population Dynamics--Combined Analyses of Promoters of Human Puumala Virus Infections in Germany

The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV) causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012) time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host), bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes.

Environmental conditions in favour of a hantavirus outbreak in 2015 in Germany?

Bank voles can harbour Puumala virus (PUUV) and vole populations usually peak in years after beech mast. A beech mast occurred in 2014 and a predictive model indicates high vole abundance in 2015. This pattern is similar to the years 2009/2011 when beech mast occurred, bank voles multiplied and human PUUV infections increased a year later. Given similar environmental conditions in 2014/2015, increased risk of human PUUV infections in 2015 is likely. Risk management measures are recommended.