A Systems Pharmacology Model of Erythropoiesis in Mice Induced by Small Molecule Inhibitor of Prolyl Hydroxylase Enzymes

Quantitative systems pharmacology model of erythropoiesis to simulate therapies targeting anemia due to chronic kidney disease

Anemia induced by chronic kidney disease (CKD) has multiple underlying mechanistic causes and generally worsens as CKD progresses. Erythropoietin (EPO) is a key endogenous protein which increases the number of erythrocyte progenitors that mature into red blood cells that carry hemoglobin (Hb). Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO) in its native and re-engineered forms is used as a therapeutic to alleviate CKD-induced anemia by stimulating erythropoiesis. However, due to safety risks associated with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs), a new class of drugs, prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (PHIs), has been developed. Instead of administering exogenous EPO, PHIs facilitate the accumulation of HIF-α, which results in the increased production of endogenous EPO. Clinical trials for ESAs and PHIs generally involve balancing decisions related to safety and efficacy by carefully evaluating the criteria for patient selection and adaptive trial design. To enable such decisions, we developed a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of erythropoiesis which captures key aspects of physiology and its disruption in CKD. Furthermore, CKD virtual populations of varying severities were developed, calibrated, and validated against public data. Such a model can be used to simulate alternative trial protocols while designing phase 3 clinical trials, as well as an asset for reverse translation in understanding emerging clinical data.

Clinical Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Roxadustat

The pharmacokinetics of roxadustat are well characterized, with an apparent volume of distribution after oral administration of 22–57 L, apparent clearance of 1.2–2.65 L/h, and renal clearance of 0.030–0.026 L/h in healthy volunteers; the elimination half-life is 9.6–16 h. Plasma binding is 99% and the fraction eliminated by hemodialysis is 2.34%. As an interpretation of the pharmacodynamics of roxadustat, we proposed a concept with a hypothetical cascade of two subsequent effects, first on erythropoetin (EPO) and second on hemoglobin (delta Hb). The primary effect on EPO is observed within a few hours after roxadustat administration and can be modeled using the sigmoidal Hill equation. The concentration at half-maximum effect can be inferred at 10–36 µg/mL, the Hill coefficient at 3.3, and the effect bisection time at 10–17 h, corresponding to EPO half-life. The subsequent effect on hemoglobin (delta Hb) is observed after several weeks and can be interpreted as an irreversible, dose proportional, unsaturable effect, continuing in agreement with the lifespan of red blood cells of 63–112 days.

Applications of Quantitative Systems Pharmacology in Model-Informed Drug Discovery: Perspective on Impact and Opportunities

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approaches have been increasingly applied in the pharmaceutical since the landmark white paper published in 2011 by a National Institutes of Health working group brought attention to the discipline. In this perspective, we discuss QSP in the context of other modeling approaches and highlight the impact of QSP across various stages of drug development and therapeutic areas. We discuss challenges to the field as well as future opportunities.