Quantitative systems pharmacology model of erythropoiesis to simulate therapies targeting anemia due to chronic kidney disease

Anemia induced by chronic kidney disease (CKD) has multiple underlying mechanistic causes and generally worsens as CKD progresses. Erythropoietin (EPO) is a key endogenous protein which increases the number of erythrocyte progenitors that mature into red blood cells that carry hemoglobin (Hb). Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO) in its native and re-engineered forms is used as a therapeutic to alleviate CKD-induced anemia by stimulating erythropoiesis. However, due to safety risks associated with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs), a new class of drugs, prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (PHIs), has been developed. Instead of administering exogenous EPO, PHIs facilitate the accumulation of HIF-α, which results in the increased production of endogenous EPO. Clinical trials for ESAs and PHIs generally involve balancing decisions related to safety and efficacy by carefully evaluating the criteria for patient selection and adaptive trial design. To enable such decisions, we developed a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of erythropoiesis which captures key aspects of physiology and its disruption in CKD. Furthermore, CKD virtual populations of varying severities were developed, calibrated, and validated against public data. Such a model can be used to simulate alternative trial protocols while designing phase 3 clinical trials, as well as an asset for reverse translation in understanding emerging clinical data.

Patient Preference Trade-offs for Next-Generation Kidney Replacement Therapies

BACKGROUND

Next-generation implantable and wearable KRTs may revolutionize the lives of patients undergoing dialysis by providing more frequent and/or prolonged therapy along with greater mobility compared with in-center hemodialysis. Medical device innovators would benefit from patient input to inform product design and development. Our objective was to determine key risk/benefit considerations for patients with kidney failure and test how these trade-offs could drive patient treatment choices.

METHODS

We developed a choice-based conjoint discrete choice instrument and surveyed 498 patients with kidney failure. The choice-based conjoint instrument consisted of nine attributes of risk and benefit pertinent across KRT modalities. Attributes were derived from literature reviews, patient/clinician interviews, and pilot testing. The risk attributes were serious infection, death within 5 years, permanent device failure, surgical requirements, and follow-up requirements. The benefit attributes were fewer diet restrictions, improved mobility, pill burden, and fatigue. We created a random, full-profile, balanced overlap design with 14 choice pairs plus five fixed tasks to test validity. We used a mixed-effects regression model with attribute levels as independent predictor variables and choice decisions as dependent variables.

RESULTS

All variables were significantly important to patient choice preferences, except follow-up requirements. For each 1% higher risk of death within 5 years, preference utility was lower by 2.22 ( β =-2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.52 to -1.91), while for each 1% higher risk of serious infection, utility was lower by 1.38 ( β =-1.46; 95% CI, -1.77 to -1.00) according to comparisons of the β coefficients. Patients were willing to trade a 1% infection risk and 0.5% risk of death to gain complete mobility and freedom from in-center hemodialysis ( β =1.46; 95% CI, 1.27 to 1.64).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite an aversion to even a 1% higher risk of death within 5 years, serious infection, and permanent device rejection, patients with kidney failure suggested that they would trade these risks for the benefit of complete mobility.

Reduced kidney function and hypertension in adolescents with low birth weight, NHANES 1999-2016

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health problem, and the risk of CKD and hypertension in children born low birth weight (LBW) is under-recognized. We hypothesized that children born with LBW would have a higher prevalence of reduced kidney function and hypertension.

METHODS

Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate whether LBW (< 2500 g), very low birth weight (VLBW < 1500 g), and large birth weight (BW) (> 4000 g) were associated with kidney disease using 4 different estimating equations. We used the Counahan-Barratt, updated Schwartz, CKiD-U25, and full age spectrum creatinine-based GFR estimating equations to evaluate associations between a history of LBW/VLBW/large BW and reduced kidney function (eGFR < 90 mL/min/1.73 m2) in children. We also assessed blood pressure (BP) using the old and new pediatric hypertension guidelines.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 6336 children (age 12-15 years) in NHANES representing over 13 million US individuals. Using the updated Schwartz, the prevalence of reduced kidney function was 30.1% (25.2-35.6) for children born with LBW compared to 22.4% (20.5-24.3) in children with normal BW. Equations yielded different estimates of prevalence of reduced kidney function in LBW from 21.5% for Counahan-Barratt to 35.4% for CKiD-U25. Compared to those with normal BW, participants with LBW and VLBW had a 7.2 and 10.3% higher prevalence of elevated BP and a 2.4 and 14.6% higher prevalence of hypertension, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Children born with LBW are at higher risk of reduced kidney function and hypertension than previously described. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Primary Aldosteronism and the Role of Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists for the Heart and Kidneys

Primary aldosteronism (PA) is the most common cause of secondary hypertension but is frequently underrecognized and undertreated. Patients with PA are at a markedly increased risk for target organ damage to the heart and kidneys. While patients with unilateral PA can be treated surgically, many patients with PA are not eligible or willing to undergo surgery. Steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) are highly effective for treating PA and reducing the risk of target organ damage. However, steroidal MRAs are often underprescribed and can be poorly tolerated by some patients due to side effects. Nonsteroidal MRAs reduce adverse renal and cardiovascular outcomes among patients with diabetic kidney disease and are bettertolerated than steroidal MRAs. While their blood pressure-lowering effects remain unclear, these agents may have a potential role in reducing target organ damage in patients with PA.

Evaluation and Management of Secondary Hypertension

Hypertension is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality globally. Many patients with hypertension have secondary causes of hypertension that merit further evaluation. For example, secondary hypertension can result in target organ damage to the heart, kidneys, and brain independent of the effects of blood pressure. Several causes benefit from targeted therapies to supplement first-line antihypertensive agents. However, secondary hypertension is often underrecognized. The goal of this review is to highlight optimal approaches to the diagnosis and management of common causes of secondary hypertension, including primary aldosteronism, renovascular hypertension, obstructive sleep apnea, and drug-induced hypertension.

Analysis of Active and Passive Tobacco Exposures and Blood Pressure in US Children and Adolescents

Importance

Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease in adults; preclinical associations between hypertension and cardiovascular disease are seen in childhood. Nicotine is a known toxin, but its association with pediatric hypertension is unclear.

Objective

To test the hypothesis that tobacco exposure is associated with the presence of elevated blood pressure in US children and adolescents and that this association is dose dependent.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from the 2007 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a population-based nationally representative sample of US children and adolescents. Children were eligible if they were aged 8 to 19 years at the time of participation in the main NHANES study. Exclusion criteria included those of the main NHANES study, inability to complete testing, or missing questionnaires. Of the 10 143 participants in NHANES aged 8 to 19 during the study years, 8520 were included in the analysis. Analysis was conducted from October 12, 2019, to July 9, 2020.

Exposures

Tobacco exposure, defined as serum cotinine levels greater than 0.05 µg/L, or reporting living with a smoker or smoking themselves.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Elevated blood pressure, classified as greater than 90% for a child's age, sex, and height according to the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics Clinical Practice Guidelines. The a priori hypothesis that there is a positive association between tobacco exposure and elevated blood pressure in the study population was tested. Analysis included logistic regression with adjustment for possible confounders. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

A total of 8520 children were included in the analysis, representing 41 million US children. The mean (SD) age of the participants was 13.1 (0.05) years, 51% (95% CI, 49%-52%) were male, and 58% (95% CI, 54%-62%) were non-Hispanic White individuals. Participants with any tobacco smoke exposure were more likely than those without exposure to be older (mean [SD] age, 13.3 [0.07] years vs 12.8 [0.06] years), male (53% [95% CI, 51%-55%] vs 49% [95% CI, 47%-50%]), and non-Hispanic Black individuals (19% [95% CI, 16%-22%] vs 10% [95% CI, 8%-12%]). The odds of having elevated blood pressure was 1.31 (95% CI, 1.06-1.61) for any tobacco exposure after adjustment; odds were similar across subgroups and remained significant in multiple sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that tobacco exposure is associated with elevated blood pressure in US children and adolescents. This modifiable risk factor represents a target for further research into reducing hypertension in children and adolescents.

Association of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs with Kidney Health in Ambulatory Older Adults

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can cause kidney injury, especially in older adults. However, previously reported associations between NSAID use and kidney health outcomes are inconsistent and limited by reliance on serum creatinine-based GFR estimates. This analysis investigated the association of NSAID use with kidney damage in older adults using multiple kidney health measures.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses.

SETTING

Multicenter, community-based cohort.

PARTICIPANTS

Two thousand nine hundred and ninty nine older adults in the Health ABC Study. A subcohort (n = 500) was randomly selected for additional biomarker measurements.

EXPOSURE

Prescription and over-the-counter NSAID use ascertained by self-report.

MEASUREMENTS

Baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by cystatin C (cysC), urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), and interleukin-18 (IL-18) were measured in 2,999 participants; alpha-1 microglobulin (α1m), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), propeptide type III procollagen (PIIINP), and uromodulin (UMOD) were measured in 500 participants. GFR was estimated three times over 10 years and expressed as percent change per year.

RESULTS

Participants had a mean age of 74 years, 51% were female, and 41% African-American. No eGFR differences were detected between NSAID users (n = 655) and non-users (n = 2,344) at baseline (72 ml/min/1.73 m² in both groups). Compared to non-users, NSAID users had lower adjusted odds of having ACR greater than 30 mg/g (0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.51-0.89) and lower mean urine IL-18 concentration at baseline (-11%; 95% CI = -4% to -18%), but similar mean KIM-1 (5%; 95% CI = -5% to 14%). No significant differences in baseline concentrations of the remaining urine biomarkers were detected. NSAID users and non-users did not differ significantly in the rate of eGFR decline (-2.2% vs -2.3% per year).

CONCLUSION

Self-reported NSAID use was not associated with kidney dysfunction or injury based on multiple measures, raising the possibility of NSAID use without kidney harm in ambulatory older adults. More research is needed to define safe patterns of NSAID consumption.

Functional Status Modifies the Association of Blood Pressure with Death in Elders: Health and Retirement Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether grip strength, gait speed, and the combination of the two physical functioning measures modified the association of systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) with mortality.

DESIGN

Nationally representative cohort study.

SETTING

Health and Retirement Study.

PARTICIPANTS

7,492 U.S. adults aged ≥65 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Grip strength was measured by a hand dynamometer and classified as normal (≥16 kg for female; ≥26 kg for male) and weak. Gait speed was assessed over a 98.5-inch walk and classified as non-slow (≥0.60 m/s for female; ≥0.52 m/s for male) and slow.

RESULTS

Over an average follow-up time of 6.0 years, 1,870 (25.0%) participants died. After adjustment for socio-demographic, behavioral, and clinical measures, elevated SBP (≥150 mmHg) and DBP (≥90 mmHg) was associated with a 24% (95% CI, 7-43%) and 25% (95% CI, 5-49%) higher mortality among participants with normal grip strength. In contrast, elevated SBP and DBP was associated with a 6% (95% CI, 31 to -27%) and a 16% (95% CI, 46 to -26%) lower mortality among those with weak grip strength (P-values of interactions: both=.07). The inverse relations between BP with death were most pronounced among slow walkers with weak grip strength. The HRs of elevated SBP and DBP for death was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.56-1.29) and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.30-0.96), respectively, and was substantially different from non-slow walkers with normal grip strength (HR = 1.24 and 1.15, respectively; P-values of interactions: both <.001). Therefore, associations of BP with death varied modestly by gait speed.

CONCLUSION

Grip strength modified the association of BP with death. Combination of grip strength and gait speed has incremental value for modifying the association of BP with death.

Abdominal Obesity, Race and Chronic Kidney Disease in Young Adults: Results from NHANES 1999-2010

OBJECTIVE

Kidney dysfunction in obesity may be independent of and may precede the development of hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus. We aimed to examine if abdominal obesity is associated with early markers of CKD in a young healthy population and whether these associations differ by race and/or ethnicity.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the NHANES 1999-2010 for 6918 young adults ages 20-40 years. Abdominal obesity was defined by gender criteria of waist circumference. CKD markers included estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria ≥30 mg/g. Race stratified analyses were done overall and in subgroups with normal blood pressures, normoglycemia and normal insulin sensitivity. Awareness of CKD was assessed in participants with albuminuria.

RESULTS

Abdominal obesity was present in over one-third of all young adults and was more prevalent among non-Hispanic blacks (45.4%) versus Mexican-Americans (40.6%) or non-Hispanic whites (37.4%) (P-value = 0.004). Mexican-American young adults with abdominal obesity had a higher odds of albuminuria even among those with normal blood pressure, normal glucose, and normal insulin sensitivity [adjusted odds ratio 4.5; 95% confidence interval (1.6-12.2), p = 0.004]. Less than 5% of young adults with albuminuria of all races and ethnicities had been told they had kidney disease.

CONCLUSION

Abdominal obesity in young adults, especially in Mexican-Americans, is independently associated with albuminuria even with normal blood pressures, normoglycemia and normal insulin levels. Greater awareness of CKD is needed to protect this young population from long-standing exposure to abdominal obesity and early progressive renal disease.

The effects of short-term vitamin D supplementation on glucose metabolism in dialysis patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

We tested whether short-term vitamin D supplementation improves insulin resistance in patients with kidney disease, a condition with little intrinsic vitamin D activity.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE and CENTRAL were searched for relevant observational studies and randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Random-effects models were employed for meta-analysis, and effect sizes were summarized as standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals. Separate analyses were done for RCTs and non-randomized intervention studies (NRIS).

RESULTS

Seventeen studies (5 RCTs and 12 NRIS) were included. The meta-analysis population (n = 131) was mostly middle aged (40-50 years), male and non-diabetic, and on hemodialysis. The duration (4-12 weeks) and type of supplementation varied between studies. Among RCTs, compared to placebo, vitamin D supplementation was associated with significant decrease in fasting glucose [SMD -1.13, (-2.11 to -0.11)] and PTH levels [SMD -1.50, (-2.95 to -0.04)] but no difference in fasting insulin levels [SMD 1.32, (-0.15 to 2.79)]. Among NRIS, there was only a significant decrease in PTH levels [SMD -1.68, (-2.55 to -0.82)] between pre- and post-vitamin D treatment levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term (4-12 weeks) supplementation with vitamin D is associated with lower fasting glucose levels in ESRD with no change in fasting insulin levels. However, the findings from this study are limited by the studies that were used in the meta-analysis, which were mostly small, used multiple different vitamin D compounds and dosing regimens, and had large heterogeneity, and funnel plots showed that there was a dearth of studies with null or negative finding. Therefore, larger RCTs need to be performed to answer this important clinical question.

Risk of window period HIV infection in high infectious risk donors: systematic review and meta-analysis

The OPTN defines high risk donors (HRDs), colloquially known as 'CDC high risk donors', as those thought to carry an increased risk of HIV window period (WP) infection prior to serologic detectability. However, the true risk of such infection remains unknown. To quantify the risk of WP infection in each HRD behavior category, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of HIV prevalence and incidence. Of 3476 abstracts reviewed, 27 eligible studies of HIV infection in HRD populations were identified. Pooled HIV incidence estimates were calculated for each category of HRD behavior and used to calculate the risk of WP HIV infection. Risks ranged from 0.09-12.1 per 10 000 donors based on WP for ELISA and 0.04-4.9 based on nucleic acid testing (NAT), with NAT reducing WP risk by over 50% in each category. Injection drug users had the greatest risk of WP infection (4.9 per 10 000 donors by NAT WP), followed by men who have sex with men (4.2:10 000), commercial sex workers (2.7:10 000), incarcerated donors (0.9:10 000), donors exposed to HIV through blood (0.6:10 000), donors engaging in high-risk sex (0.3:10 000) and hemophiliacs (0.035:10 000). These estimates can help inform patient and provider decision making regarding HRDs.

Risk of window period hepatitis-C infection in high infectious risk donors: systematic review and meta-analysis

The OPTN classifies high infectious risk donors (HRDs) based on criteria originally intended to identify people at risk for HIV infection. These donors are sometimes referred to as 'CDC high risk donors' in reference to the CDC-published guidelines adopted by the OPTN. However, these guidelines are also being used to identify deceased donors at increased risk of window period (WP) hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, although not designed for this purpose. The actual risk of WP HCV infection in HRDs is unknown. We performed a systematic review of 3476 abstracts and identified 37 eligible estimates of HCV incidence in HRD populations in the United States/Canada. Pooled HCV incidence was derived and used to estimate the risk of WP infection for each HRD category. Risks ranged from 0.26 to 300.6 per 10,000 donors based on WP for ELISA and 0.027 to 32.4 based on nucleic acid testing (NAT). Injection drug users were at highest risk (32.4 per 10,000 donors by NAT WP), followed by commercial sex workers and donors exhibiting high risk sexual behavior (12.3 per 10,000), men who have sex with men (3.5 per 10,000), incarcerated donors (0.8 per 10,000), donors exposed to HIV infected blood (0.4 per 10,000) and hemophiliacs (0.027 per 10,000). NAT reduced WP risk by approximately 10-fold in each category.