QSP-IO: A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Toolbox for Mechanistic Multiscale Modeling for Immuno-Oncology Applications

Quantitative systems pharmacology modeling of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer for translational efficacy evaluation and combination assessment across therapeutic modalities

HER2-positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) is highly aggressive and a major threat to human health. Despite the significant improvement in patients' prognosis given the drug development efforts during the past several decades, many clinical questions still remain to be addressed such as efficacy when combining different therapeutic modalities, best treatment sequences, interindividual variability as well as resistance and potential coping strategies. To better answer these questions, we developed a mechanistic quantitative systems pharmacology model of the pathophysiology of HER2+ mBC that was extensively calibrated and validated against multiscale data to quantitatively predict and characterize the signal transduction and preclinical tumor growth kinetics under different therapeutic interventions. Focusing on the second-line treatment for HER2+ mBC, e.g., antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), small molecule inhibitors/TKI and chemotherapy, the model accurately predicted the efficacy of various drug combinations and dosing regimens at the in vitro and in vivo levels. Sensitivity analyses and subsequent heterogeneous phenotype simulations revealed important insights into the design of new drug combinations to effectively overcome various resistance scenarios in HER2+ mBC treatments. In addition, the model predicted a better efficacy of the new TKI plus ADC combination which can potentially reduce drug dosage and toxicity, while it also shed light on the optimal treatment ordering of ADC versus TKI plus capecitabine regimens, and these findings were validated by new in vivo experiments. Our model is the first that mechanistically integrates multiple key drug modalities in HER2+ mBC research and it can serve as a high-throughput computational platform to guide future model-informed drug development and clinical translation.

Leveraging multi-omics data to empower quantitative systems pharmacology in immuno-oncology

Understanding the intricate interactions of cancer cells with the tumor microenvironment (TME) is a pre-requisite for the optimization of immunotherapy. Mechanistic models such as quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) provide insights into the TME dynamics and predict the efficacy of immunotherapy in virtual patient populations/digital twins but require vast amounts of multimodal data for parameterization. Large-scale datasets characterizing the TME are available due to recent advances in bioinformatics for multi-omics data. Here, we discuss the perspectives of leveraging omics-derived bioinformatics estimates to inform QSP models and circumvent the challenges of model calibration and validation in immuno-oncology.

Predicting efficacy assessment of combined treatment of radiotherapy and nivolumab for NSCLC patients through virtual clinical trials using QSP modeling

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) remains one of the main causes of cancer death worldwide. In the urge of finding an effective approach to treat cancer, enormous therapeutic targets and treatment combinations are explored in clinical studies, which are not only costly, suffer from a shortage of participants, but also unable to explore all prospective therapeutic solutions. Within the evolving therapeutic landscape, the combined use of radiotherapy (RT) and checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) emerged as a promising avenue. Exploiting the power of quantitative system pharmacology (QSP), we undertook a study to anticipate the therapeutic outcomes of these interventions, aiming to address the limitations of clinical trials. After enhancing a pre-existing QSP platform and accurately replicating clinical data outcomes, we conducted an in-depth study, examining different treatment protocols with nivolumab and RT, both as monotherapy and in combination, by assessing their efficacy through clinical endpoints, namely time to progression (TTP) and duration of response (DOR). As result, the synergy of combined protocols showcased enhanced TTP and extended DOR, suggesting dual advantages of extended response and slowed disease progression with certain combined regimens. Through the lens of QSP modeling, our findings highlight the potential to fine-tune combination therapies for NSCLC, thereby providing pivotal insights for tailoring patient-centric therapeutic interventions.

An industry perspective on current QSP trends in drug development

2023 marks the 10th anniversary of Natpara's submission to the US FDA, which led to the first recorded regulatory interaction where a decision was supported by Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology (QSP) simulations. It had taken about 5 years for the timid QSP discipline to emerge as an effective Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) tool with visible impact in the pharmaceutical industry. Since then, the presence of QSP in the regulatory environment has continued to increase, to the point that the Agency reported 60 QSP submissions in 2020 alone, representing ~ 4% of their annual IND submissions [1]. What sort of industry mindset has enabled QSP to reach this level of success? How does QSP fit within the MIDD paradigm? Does QSP mean the same to Discovery and to Clinical Development projects? How do 'platforms' compare to 'fit-for-purpose' QSP models in an industrial setting? Can QSP and empirical Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling be complementary? What level of validation is required to inform drug development decisions? This article reflects on all these questions, in particular addressing those audiences with limited line-of-sight into the drug industry decision-making machinery.

Development and Evaluation of a Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for Mechanism Interpretation and Efficacy Prediction of Atezolizumab in Combination with Carboplatin and Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients with Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Immunotherapy has shown clinical benefit in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Due to the limited response of monotherapy, combining immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and chemotherapy is considered a treatment option for advanced NSCLC. However, the mechanism of combined therapy and the potential patient population that could benefit from combined therapy remain undetermined. Here, we developed an NSCLC model based on the published quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP)-immuno-oncology platform by making necessary adjustments. After calibration and validation, the established QSP model could adequately characterise the biological mechanisms of action of the triple combination of atezolizumab, nab-paclitaxel, and carboplatin in patients with NSCLC, and identify predictive biomarkers for precision dosing. The established model could efficiently characterise the objective response rate and duration of response of the IMpower131 trial, reproducing the efficacy of alternative dosing. Furthermore, CD8+ and CD4+ T cell densities in tumours were found to be significantly related to the response status. This significant extension of the QSP model not only broadens its applicability but also more accurately reflects real-world clinical settings. Importantly, it positions the model as a critical foundation for model-informed drug development and the customisation of treatment plans, especially in the context of combining single-agent ICIs with platinum-doublet chemotherapy.

Dynamical behavior-based approach for the evaluation of treatment efficacy: The case of immuno-oncology

Sophistication of mathematical models in the pharmacological context reflects the progress being made in understanding physiological, pharmacological, and disease relationships. This progress has illustrated once more the need for advanced quantitative tools able to efficiently extract information from these models. While dynamical systems theory has a long history in the analysis of systems biology models, as emphasized under the dynamical disease concept by Mackey and Glass [Science 197, 287-289 (1977)], its adoption in pharmacometrics is only at the beginning [Chae, Transl. Clin. Pharmacol. 28, 109 (2020)]. Using a quantitative systems pharmacology model of tumor immune dynamics as a case study [Kosinsky et al., J. Immunother. Cancer 6, 17 (2018)], we here adopt a dynamical systems analysis to describe, in an exhaustive way, six different statuses that refer to the response of the system to therapy, in the presence or absence of a tumor-free attractor. To evaluate the therapy success, we introduce the concept of TBA, related to the Time to enter the tumor-free Basin of Attraction, and corresponding to the earliest time at which the therapy can be stopped without jeopardizing its efficacy. TBA can determine the optimal time to stop drug administration and consequently quantify the reduction in drug exposure.

Development of bispecific T cell engagers: harnessing quantitative systems pharmacology

Bispecific T cell engagers (bsTCEs) have emerged as a promising class of cancer immunotherapy. Several bsTCEs have achieved marketing approval; dozens more are under clinical investigation. However, the clinical development of bsTCEs remains rife with challenges, including nuanced pharmacology, limited translatability of preclinical findings, frequent on-target toxicity, and convoluted dosing regimens. In this opinion article we present a distinct perspective on how quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) can serve as a powerful tool for overcoming these obstacles. Recent advances in QSP modeling have empowered developers of bsTCEs to gain a deeper understanding of their context-dependent pharmacology, bridge gaps in experimental data, guide first-in-human (FIH) dose selection, design dosing regimens with expanded therapeutic windows, and improve long-term treatment outcomes. We use recent case studies to exemplify the potential of QSP techniques to support future bsTCE development.

Using quantitative systems pharmacology modeling to optimize combination therapy of anti-PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor and T cell engager

Although immune checkpoint blockade therapies have shown evidence of clinical effectiveness in many types of cancer, the outcome of clinical trials shows that very few patients with colorectal cancer benefit from treatments with checkpoint inhibitors. Bispecific T cell engagers (TCEs) are gaining popularity because they can improve patients' immunological responses by promoting T cell activation. The possibility of combining TCEs with checkpoint inhibitors to increase tumor response and patient survival has been highlighted by preclinical and clinical outcomes. However, identifying predictive biomarkers and optimal dose regimens for individual patients to benefit from combination therapy remains one of the main challenges. In this article, we describe a modular quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) platform for immuno-oncology that includes specific processes of immune-cancer cell interactions and was created based on published data on colorectal cancer. We generated a virtual patient cohort with the model to conduct in silico virtual clinical trials for combination therapy of a PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor (atezolizumab) and a bispecific T cell engager (cibisatamab). Using the model calibrated against the clinical trials, we conducted several virtual clinical trials to compare various doses and schedules of administration for two drugs with the goal of therapy optimization. Moreover, we quantified the score of drug synergy for these two drugs to further study the role of the combination therapy.

Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition

Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge of biological systems to investigate dynamics in a whole system during disease progression and drug treatment. In the present analysis, we parameterized our previously published QSP model of the cancer-immunity cycle to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and generated a virtual patient cohort to predict clinical response to PD-L1 inhibition in NSCLC. The virtual patient generation was guided by immunogenomic data from iAtlas portal and population pharmacokinetic data of durvalumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor. With virtual patients generated following the immunogenomic data distribution, our model predicted a response rate of 18.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 13.3-24.2%) and identified CD8/Treg ratio as a potential predictive biomarker in addition to PD-L1 expression and tumor mutational burden. We demonstrated that omics data served as a reliable resource for virtual patient generation techniques in immuno-oncology using QSP models.

Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition

Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge of biological systems to investigate dynamics in a whole system during disease progression and drug treatment. In the present analysis, we parameterized our previously published QSP model of the cancer-immunity cycle to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and generated a virtual patient cohort to predict clinical response to PD-L1 inhibition in NSCLC. The virtual patient generation was guided by immunogenomic data from iAtlas portal and population pharmacokinetic data of durvalumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor. With virtual patients generated following the immunogenomic data distribution, our model predicted a response rate of 18.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 13.3-24.2%) and identified CD8/Treg ratio as a potential predictive biomarker in addition to PD-L1 expression and tumor mutational burden. We demonstrated that omics data served as a reliable resource for virtual patient generation techniques in immuno-oncology using QSP models.

Quantitative Spatial Profiling of Immune Populations in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Reveals Tumor Microenvironment Heterogeneity and Prognostic Biomarkers

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a highly aggressive disease with poor 5-year survival rates, necessitating identification of novel therapeutic targets. Elucidating the biology of the tumor immune microenvironment (TiME) can provide vital insights into mechanisms of tumor progression. In this study, we developed a quantitative image processing platform to analyze sequential multiplexed IHC data from archival PDAC tissue resection specimens. A 27-plex marker panel was employed to simultaneously phenotype cell populations and their functional states, followed by a computational workflow to interrogate the immune contextures of the TiME in search of potential biomarkers. The PDAC TiME reflected a low-immunogenic ecosystem with both high intratumoral and intertumoral heterogeneity. Spatial analysis revealed that the relative distance between IL10+ myelomonocytes, PD-1+ CD4+ T cells, and granzyme B+ CD8+ T cells correlated significantly with survival, from which a spatial proximity signature termed imRS was derived that correlated with PDAC patient survival. Furthermore, spatial enrichment of CD8+ T cells in lymphoid aggregates was also linked to improved survival. Altogether, these findings indicate that the PDAC TiME, generally considered immuno-dormant or immunosuppressive, is a spatially nuanced ecosystem orchestrated by ordered immune hierarchies. This new understanding of spatial complexity may guide novel treatment strategies for PDAC.

SIGNIFICANCE

Quantitative image analysis of PDAC specimens reveals intertumoral and intratumoral heterogeneity of immune populations and identifies spatial immune architectures that are significantly associated with disease prognosis.

Virtual clinical trials of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 immunotherapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma using a quantitative systems pharmacology model

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of primary liver cancer and is the third-leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Most patients with HCC are diagnosed at an advanced stage, and the median survival for patients with advanced HCC treated with modern systemic therapy is less than 2 years. This leaves the advanced stage patients with limited treatment options. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) or its ligand, are widely used in the treatment of HCC and are associated with durable responses in a subset of patients. ICIs targeting cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) also have clinical activity in HCC. Combination therapy of nivolumab (anti-PD-1) and ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) is the first treatment option for HCC to be approved by Food and Drug Administration that targets more than one immune checkpoints.

METHODS

In this study, we used the framework of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) to perform a virtual clinical trial for nivolumab and ipilimumab in HCC patients. Our model incorporates detailed biological mechanisms of interactions of immune cells and cancer cells leading to antitumor response. To conduct virtual clinical trial, we generate virtual patient from a cohort of 5,000 proposed patients by extending recent algorithms from literature. The model was calibrated using the data of the clinical trial CheckMate 040 (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01658878).

RESULTS

Retrospective analyses were performed for different immune checkpoint therapies as performed in CheckMate 040. Using machine learning approach, we predict the importance of potential biomarkers for immune blockade therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first QSP model for HCC with ICIs and the predictions are consistent with clinically observed outcomes. This study demonstrates that using a mechanistic understanding of the underlying pathophysiology, QSP models can facilitate patient selection and design clinical trials with improved success.

Dynamics of tumor-associated macrophages in a quantitative systems pharmacology model of immunotherapy in triple-negative breast cancer

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling is an emerging mechanistic computational approach that couples drug pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and the course of disease progression. It has begun to play important roles in drug development for complex diseases such as cancer, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The combination of the anti-PD-L1 antibody atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel has shown clinical activity in advanced TNBC with PD-L1-positive tumor-infiltrating immune cells. As tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) serve as major contributors to the immuno-suppressive tumor microenvironment, we incorporated the dynamics of TAMs into our previously published QSP model to investigate their impact on cancer treatment. We show that through proper calibration, the model captures the macrophage heterogeneity in the tumor microenvironment while maintaining its predictive power of the trial results at the population level. Despite its high mechanistic complexity, the modularized QSP platform can be readily reproduced, expanded for new species of interest, and applied in clinical trial simulation.

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A mechanistic model of quantitative systems pharmacology in immuno-oncology

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Dynamics of tumor-associated macrophages are integrated into our previous work

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Conducting in silico clinical trials to predict clinical response to cancer therapy

Quantitative systems pharmacology modeling provides insight into inter‐mouse variability of Anti‐CTLA4 response

Clinical responses of immuno‐oncology therapies are highly variable among patients. Similar response variability has been observed in syngeneic mouse models. Understanding of the variability in the mouse models may shed light on patient variability. Using a murine anti‐CTLA4 antibody as a case study, we developed a quantitative systems pharmacology model to capture the molecular interactions of the antibody and relevant cellular interactions that lead to tumor cell killing. Nonlinear mixed effect modeling was incorporated to capture the inter‐animal variability of tumor growth profiles in response to anti‐CTLA4 treatment. The results suggested that intratumoral CD8+ T cell kinetics and tumor proliferation rate were the main drivers of the variability. In addition, simulations indicated that nonresponsive mice to anti‐CTLA4 treatment could be converted to responders by increasing the number of intratumoral CD8+ T cells. The model provides a mechanistic starting point for translation of CTLA4 inhibitors from syngeneic mice to the clinic.

Multi-Scale Spatial Analysis of the Tumor Microenvironment Reveals Features of Cabozantinib and Nivolumab Efficacy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Concomitant inhibition of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) or its ligand PD-L1 is a standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but only a minority of patients respond, and responses are usually transient. Understanding the effects of therapies on the tumor microenvironment (TME) can provide insights into mechanisms of therapeutic resistance.

Methods

14 patients with HCC were treated with the combination of cabozantinib and nivolumab through the Johns Hopkins Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center. Among them, 12 patients (5 responders + 7 non-responders) underwent successful margin negative resection and are subjects to tissue microarray (TMA) construction containing 37 representative tumor region cores. Using the TMAs, we performed imaging mass cytometry (IMC) with a panel of 27-cell lineage and functional markers. All multiplexed images were then segmented to generate a single-cell dataset that enables (1) tumor-immune compartment analysis and (2) cell community analysis based on graph-embedding methodology. Results from these hierarchies are merged into response-associated biological process patterns.

Results

Image processing on 37 multiplexed-images discriminated 59,453 cells and was then clustered into 17 cell types. Compartment analysis showed that at immune-tumor boundaries from NR, PD-L1 level on tumor cells is significantly higher than remote regions; however, Granzyme B expression shows the opposite pattern. We also identify that the close proximity of CD8⁺ T cells to arginase 1^hi (Arg1^hi) macrophages, rather than CD4⁺ T cells, is a salient feature of the TME in non-responders. Furthermore, cell community analysis extracted 8 types of cell-cell interaction networks termed cellular communities (CCs). We observed that in non-responders, macrophage-enriched CC (MCC) and lymphocyte-enriched CC (LCC) strongly communicate with tumor CC, whereas in responders, such communications were undermined by the engagement between MCC and LCC.

Conclusion

These results demonstrate the feasibility of a novel application of multiplexed image analysis that is broadly applicable to quantitative analysis of pathology specimens in immuno-oncology and provides further evidence that CD163^-Arg1^hi macrophages may be a therapeutic target in HCC. The results also provide critical information for the development of mechanistic quantitative systems pharmacology models aimed at predicting outcomes of clinical trials.

Virtual Populations for Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Models

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) places an emphasis on dynamic systems modeling, incorporating considerations from systems biology modeling and pharmacodynamics. The goal of QSP is often to quantitatively predict the effects of clinical therapeutics, their combinations, and their doses on clinical biomarkers and endpoints. In order to achieve this goal, strategies for incorporating clinical data into model calibration are critical. Virtual population (VPop) approaches facilitate model calibration while faced with challenges encountered in QSP model application, including modeling a breadth of clinical therapies, biomarkers, endpoints, utilizing data of varying structure and source, capturing observed clinical variability, and simulating with models that may require more substantial computational time and resources than often found in pharmacometrics applications. VPops are frequently developed in a process that may involve parameterization of isolated pathway models, integration into a larger QSP model, incorporation of clinical data, calibration, and quantitative validation that the model with the accompanying, calibrated VPop is suitable to address the intended question or help with the intended decision. Here, we introduce previous strategies for developing VPops in the context of a variety of therapeutic and safety areas: metabolic disorders, drug-induced liver injury, autoimmune diseases, and cancer. We introduce methodological considerations, prior work for sensitivity analysis and VPop algorithm design, and potential areas for future advancement. Finally, we give a more detailed application example of a VPop calibration algorithm that illustrates recent progress and many of the methodological considerations. In conclusion, although methodologies have varied, VPop strategies have been successfully applied to give valid clinical insights and predictions with the assistance of carefully defined and designed calibration and validation strategies. While a uniform VPop approach for all potential QSP applications may be challenging given the heterogeneity in use considerations, we anticipate continued innovation will help to drive VPop application for more challenging cases of greater scale while developing new rigorous methodologies and metrics.

Dynamic Multiscale Regulation of Perfusion Recovery in Experimental Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Mechanistic Computational Model

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A first-of-a-kind systems biology computational model is presented that describes multiscale regulation of perfusion recovery in experimental peripheral arterial disease.

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Multilevel model calibration and validation enable high-resolution model simulations for experimental peripheral arterial disease (mouse HLI).

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An integrative model-based mechanistic characterization of the intracellular, cellular, and tissue-level features critical for the dynamic reconstitution of perfusion following different patterns of occlusion-induced ischemia in HLI is described.

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Using a model-based virtual HLI mouse population, pharmacologic inhibition of cell necrosis is predicted as a strategy with high therapeutic potential to improve perfusion recovery; in real HLI mice, the positive impact of this new strategy is then experimentally studied and confirmed.

In peripheral arterial disease (PAD), the degree of endogenous capacity to modulate revascularization of limb muscle is central to the management of leg ischemia. To characterize the multiscale and multicellular nature of revascularization in PAD, we have developed the first computational systems biology model that mechanistically incorporates intracellular, cellular, and tissue-level features critical for the dynamic reconstitution of perfusion after occlusion-induced ischemia. The computational model was specifically formulated for a preclinical animal model of PAD (mouse hindlimb ischemia [HLI]), and it has gone through multilevel model calibration and validation against a comprehensive set of experimental data so that it accurately captures the complex cellular signaling, cell–cell communication, and function during post-HLI perfusion recovery. As an example, our model simulations generated a highly detailed description of the time-dependent spectrum-like macrophage phenotypes in HLI, and through model sensitivity analysis we identified key cellular processes with potential therapeutic significance in the pathophysiology of PAD. Furthermore, we computationally evaluated the in vivo effects of different targeted interventions on post-HLI tissue perfusion recovery in a model-based, data-driven, virtual mouse population and experimentally confirmed the therapeutic effect of a novel model-predicted intervention in real HLI mice. This novel multiscale model opens up a new avenue to use integrative systems biology modeling to facilitate translational research in PAD.

Integrating single cell sequencing with a spatial quantitative systems pharmacology model spQSP for personalized prediction of triple-negative breast cancer immunotherapy response

Response to cancer immunotherapies depends on the complex and dynamic interactions between T cell recognition and killing of cancer cells that are counteracted through immunosuppressive pathways in the tumor microenvironment. Therefore, while measurements such as tumor mutational burden provide biomarkers to select patients for immunotherapy, they neither universally predict patient response nor implicate the mechanisms that underlie immunotherapy resistance. Recent advances in single-cell RNA sequencing technology measure cellular heterogeneity within cells of an individual tumor but have yet to realize the promise of predictive oncology. In addition to data, mechanistic multiscale computational models are developed to predict treatment response. Incorporating single-cell data from tumors to parameterize these computational models provides deeper insights into prediction of clinical outcome in individual patients. Here, we integrate whole-exome sequencing and scRNA-seq data from Triple-Negative Breast Cancer patients to model neoantigen burden in tumor cells as input to a spatial Quantitative System Pharmacology model. The model comprises a four-compartmental Quantitative System Pharmacology sub-model to represent a whole patient and a spatial agent-based sub-model to represent tumor volumes at the cellular scale. We use the high-throughput single-cell data to model the role of antigen burden and heterogeneity relative to the tumor microenvironment composition on predicted immunotherapy response. We demonstrate how this integrated modeling and single-cell analysis framework can be used to relate neoantigen heterogeneity to immunotherapy treatment outcomes. Our results demonstrate feasibility of merging single-cell data to initialize cell states in multiscale computational models such as the spQSP for personalized prediction of clinical outcomes to immunotherapy.

Recent applications of quantitative systems pharmacology and machine learning models across diseases

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a quantitative and mechanistic platform describing the phenotypic interaction between drugs, biological networks, and disease conditions to predict optimal therapeutic response. In this meta-analysis study, we review the utility of the QSP platform in drug development and therapeutic strategies based on recent publications (2019-2021). We gathered recent original QSP models and described the diversity of their applications based on therapeutic areas, methodologies, software platforms, and functionalities. The collection and investigation of these publications can assist in providing a repository of recent QSP studies to facilitate the discovery and further reusability of QSP models. Our review shows that the largest number of QSP efforts in recent years is in Immuno-Oncology. We also addressed the benefits of integrative approaches in this field by presenting the applications of Machine Learning methods for drug discovery and QSP models. Based on this meta-analysis, we discuss the advantages and limitations of QSP models and propose fields where the QSP approach constitutes a valuable interface for more investigations to tackle complex diseases and improve drug development.

Combination therapy with T cell engager and PD-L1 blockade enhances the antitumor potency of T cells as predicted by a QSP model

Background

T cells have been recognized as core effectors for cancer immunotherapy. How to restore the anti-tumor ability of suppressed T cells or improve the lethality of cytotoxic T cells has become the main focus in immunotherapy. Bispecific antibodies, especially bispecific T cell engagers (TCEs), have shown their unique ability to enhance the patient’s immune response to tumors by stimulating T cell activation and cytokine production in an MHC-independent manner. Antibodies targeting the checkpoint inhibitory molecules such as programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1), PD-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and cytotoxic lymphocyte activated antigen 4 are able to restore the cytotoxic effect of immune suppressed T cells and have also shown durable responses in patients with malignancies. However, both types have their own limitations in treating certain cancers. Preclinical and clinical results have emphasized the potential of combining these two antibodies to improve tumor response and patients’ survival. However, the selection and evaluation of combination partners clinically is a costly endeavor. In addition, despite advances made in immunotherapy, there are subsets of patients who are non-responders, and reliable biomarkers for different immunotherapies are urgently needed to improve the ability to prospectively predict patients’ response and improve clinical study design. Therefore, mathematical and computational models are essential to optimize patient benefit, and guide combination approaches with lower cost and in a faster manner.

Method

In this study, we continued to extend the quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model we developed for a bispecific TCE to explore efficacy of combination therapy with an anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibody in patients with colorectal cancer.

Results

Patient-specific response to TCE monotherapy, anti-PD-L1 monotherapy and the combination therapy were predicted using this model according to each patient’s individual characteristics.

Conclusions

Individual biomarkers for TCE monotherapy, anti-PD-L1 monotherapy and their combination have been determined based on the QSP model. Best treatment options for specific patients could be suggested based on their own characteristics to improve clinical trial efficiency. The model can be further used to assess plausible combination strategies for different TCEs and immune checkpoint inhibitors in different types of cancer.

A Spatial Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Platform spQSP-IO for Simulations of Tumor-Immune Interactions and Effects of Checkpoint Inhibitor Immunotherapy

Simple Summary

Mathematical and computational models, such as quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models, are becoming a popular tool in drug discovery. The advancement of imaging techniques creates a unique opportunity to further expand these models and enhance their predictive power by incorporating characteristics of individual patients embedded in the image data obtained from tissue samples. The aim of this study is to develop a platform which combines the strength of QSP models and spatially resolved agent-based models (ABM), and create a model of cancer development in the context of anti-cancer immunity and immune checkpoint inhibition therapy. The model can be applied in virtual clinical trials and biomarker discovery to help refine trial design.

Abstract

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models have become increasingly common in fundamental mechanistic studies and drug discovery in both academic and industrial environments. With imaging techniques widely adopted and other spatial quantification of tumor such as spatial transcriptomics gaining traction, it is crucial that these data reflecting tumor spatial heterogeneity be utilized to inform the QSP models to enhance their predictive power. We developed a hybrid computational model platform, spQSP-IO, to extend QSP models of immuno-oncology with spatially resolved agent-based models (ABM), combining their powers to track whole patient-scale dynamics and recapitulate the emergent spatial heterogeneity in the tumor. Using a model of non-small-cell lung cancer developed based on this platform, we studied the role of the tumor microenvironment and cancer–immune cell interactions in tumor development and applied anti-PD-1 treatment to virtual patients and studied how the spatial distribution of cells changes during tumor growth in response to the immune checkpoint inhibition treatment. Using parameter sensitivity analysis and biomarker analysis, we are able to identify mechanisms and pretreatment measurements correlated with treatment efficacy. By incorporating spatial data that highlight both heterogeneity in tumors and variability among individual patients, spQSP-IO models can extend the QSP framework and further advance virtual clinical trials.

The Role of Mathematical Models in Immuno-Oncology: Challenges and Future Perspectives

Immuno-oncology (IO) focuses on the ability of the immune system to detect and eliminate cancer cells. Since the approval of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor, immunotherapies have become a major player in oncology treatment and, in 2021, represented the highest number of approved drugs in the field. In spite of this, there is still a fraction of patients that do not respond to these therapies and develop resistance mechanisms. In this sense, mathematical models offer an opportunity to identify predictive biomarkers, optimal dosing schedules and rational combinations to maximize clinical response. This work aims to outline the main therapeutic targets in IO and to provide a description of the different mathematical approaches (top-down, middle-out, and bottom-up) integrating the cancer immunity cycle with immunotherapeutic agents in clinical scenarios. Among the different strategies, middle-out models, which combine both theoretical and evidence-based description of tumor growth and immunological cell-type dynamics, represent an optimal framework to evaluate new IO strategies.

Current and prospective computational approaches and challenges for developing COVID-19 vaccines

SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, was first identified in humans in late 2019 and is a coronavirus which is zoonotic in origin. As it spread around the world there has been an unprecedented effort in developing effective vaccines. Computational methods can be used to speed up the long and costly process of vaccine development. Antigen selection, epitope prediction, and toxicity and allergenicity prediction are areas in which computational tools have already been applied as part of reverse vaccinology for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development. However, there is potential for computational methods to assist further. We review approaches which have been used and highlight additional bioinformatic approaches and PK modelling as in silico methods which may be useful for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine design but remain currently unexplored. As more novel viruses with pandemic potential are expected to arise in future, these techniques are not limited to application to SARS-CoV-2 but also useful to rapidly respond to novel emerging viruses.

A data-driven computational model enables integrative and mechanistic characterization of dynamic macrophage polarization

Macrophages are highly plastic immune cells that dynamically integrate microenvironmental signals to shape their own functional phenotypes, a process known as polarization. Here we develop a large-scale mechanistic computational model that for the first time enables a systems-level characterization, from quantitative, temporal, dose-dependent, and single-cell perspectives, of macrophage polarization driven by a complex multi-pathway signaling network. The model was extensively calibrated and validated against literature and focused on in-house experimental data. Using the model, we generated dynamic phenotype maps in response to numerous combinations of polarizing signals; we also probed into an in silico population of model-based macrophages to examine the impact of polarization continuum at the single-cell level. Additionally, we analyzed the model under an in vitro condition of peripheral arterial disease to evaluate strategies that can potentially induce therapeutic macrophage repolarization. Our model is a key step toward the future development of a network-centric, comprehensive "virtual macrophage" simulation platform.

Quantitative systems pharmacology model predictions for efficacy of atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel in triple-negative breast cancer

Background

Immune checkpoint blockade therapy has clearly shown clinical activity in patients with triple-negative breast cancer, but less than half of the patients benefit from the treatments. While a number of ongoing clinical trials are investigating different combinations of checkpoint inhibitors and chemotherapeutic agents, predictive biomarkers that identify patients most likely to benefit remains one of the major challenges. Here we present a modular quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) platform for immuno-oncology that incorporates detailed mechanisms of immune–cancer cell interactions to make efficacy predictions and identify predictive biomarkers for treatments using atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel.

Methods

A QSP model was developed based on published data of triple-negative breast cancer. With the model, we generated a virtual patient cohort to conduct in silico virtual clinical trials and make retrospective analyses of the pivotal IMpassion130 trial that led to the accelerated approval of atezolizumab and nab-paclitaxel for patients with programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) positive triple-negative breast cancer. Available data from clinical trials were used for model calibration and validation.

Results

With the calibrated virtual patient cohort based on clinical data from the placebo comparator arm of the IMpassion130 trial, we made efficacy predictions and identified potential predictive biomarkers for the experimental arm of the trial using the proposed QSP model. The model predictions are consistent with clinically reported efficacy endpoints and correlated immune biomarkers. We further performed a series of virtual clinical trials to compare different doses and schedules of the two drugs for simulated therapeutic optimization.

Conclusions

This study provides a QSP platform, which can be used to generate virtual patient cohorts and conduct virtual clinical trials. Our findings demonstrate its potential for making efficacy predictions for immunotherapies and chemotherapies, identifying predictive biomarkers, and guiding future clinical trial designs.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling of PBMC-Humanized Mouse to Facilitate Preclinical Immuno-oncology Drug Development

Progress in immunotherapy has resulted in explosively increased new therapeutic interventions and they have shown promising results in the treatment of cancer. Animal testing is performed to provide preliminary efficacy and safety data for drugs under development prior to clinical trials. However, translational challenges remain for preclinical studies such as study design and the relevance of animal models to humans. Hence, only a small fraction of cancer patients showed response. The explosion of drug candidates and therapies makes preclinical assessment of every plausible option impossible, but it can be easily tested using Quantitative System Pharmacology (QSP) models. Here, we developed a QSP model for humanized mice. Tumor growth dynamics, T cell dynamics, cytokine release, immune checkpoint expression, and drug administration were modeled and calibrated using experimental data. Tumor growth inhibition data were used for model validation. Pharmacokinetics of T cell engager (TCE), tumor growth profile, T cell expansion in the blood and infiltration into tumor, T cell dissemination from primary tumor, cytokine release profile, and expression of additional PD-L1 induced by IFN-γ were modeled and calibrated using a variety of experimental data and showed good consistency. Mouse-specific response to T cell engager monotherapy also showed the key features of in vivo efficacy of TCE. This novel QSP model, designed for human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) engrafted xenograft mice, incorporating the most critical components of the mouse model with key cancer and immune cells, can become an integral part of preclinical drug development.

Digital Pathology Analysis Quantifies Spatial Heterogeneity of CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20, and FoxP3 Immune Markers in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Overwhelming evidence has shown the significant role of the tumor microenvironment (TME) in governing the triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) progression. Digital pathology can provide key information about the spatial heterogeneity within the TME using image analysis and spatial statistics. These analyses have been applied to CD8+ T cells, but quantitative analyses of other important markers and their correlations are limited. In this study, a digital pathology computational workflow is formulated for characterizing the spatial distributions of five immune markers (CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20, and FoxP3) and then the functionality is tested on whole slide images from patients with TNBC. The workflow is initiated by digital image processing to extract and colocalize immune marker-labeled cells and then convert this information to point patterns. Afterward invasive front (IF), central tumor (CT), and normal tissue (N) are characterized. For each region, we examine the intra-tumoral heterogeneity. The workflow is then repeated for all specimens to capture inter-tumoral heterogeneity. In this study, both intra- and inter-tumoral heterogeneities are observed for all five markers across all specimens. Among all regions, IF tends to have higher densities of immune cells and overall larger variations in spatial model fitting parameters and higher density in cell clusters and hotspots compared to CT and N. Results suggest a distinct role of IF in the tumor immuno-architecture. Though the sample size is limited in the study, the computational workflow could be readily reproduced and scaled due to its automatic nature. Importantly, the value of the workflow also lies in its potential to be linked to treatment outcomes and identification of predictive biomarkers for responders/non-responders, and its application to parameterization and validation of computational immuno-oncology models.