Evaluation of the predictive value of the bleeding prediction score VTE-BLEED for recurrent venous thromboembolism

External validation of the Pulmonary Embolism-Syncope, Anemia, and Renal Dysfunction bleeding score for early major bleeding in patients with acute pulmonary embolism: from the COMMAND VTE Registry-2

BACKGROUND

There is no established risk score for anticoagulant-related bleeding during the acute phase in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The PE-Syncope, Anemia, and Renal Dysfunction (PE-SARD) bleeding score was developed to predict early major bleeding but has not yet been fully externally validated.

OBJECTIVES

To externally validate the PE-SARD bleeding score.

METHODS

Using the COntemporary ManageMent AND outcomes in patients with Venous ThromboEmbolism (COMMAND VTE) Registry-2 database, which enrolled 5197 consecutive acute symptomatic venous thromboembolism patients among 31 centers in Japan between January 2015 and August 2020, we identified acute PE patients. We divided them into 3 groups by the score: high-risk (>2.5 points), intermediate-risk (1-2.5 points), and low-risk (0 points). The discriminating and calibration performances of the score for 30-day major bleeding were assessed. Subgroup analyses based on active cancer were also performed.

RESULTS

Of 2781 eligible patients, the high-risk group accounted for 557 patients (20%), intermediate-risk group for 1412 (51%), and low-risk group for 812 (29%). Major bleeding occurred in 121 patients within 30 days. The cumulative 30-day incidence of major bleeding substantially increased in the higher risk categories by the score (high-risk group, 8.2% [95% CI, 5.9%-10.5%]; intermediate-risk group, 4.6% [95% CI, 3.5%-5.7%]; and low-risk group, 1.8% [95% CI, 0.8%-2.7%]). The discriminating power of the score was modest with a C statistic of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.70), with a good calibration performance with a score of <4 points, except for that in active cancer patients.

CONCLUSION

The PE-SARD bleeding score had a modest discriminating performance with a limited calibration performance in acute PE patients without active cancer.

Anticoagulant therapy in renal insufficiency theme: Anticoagulation in complex situations

Many patients with impaired renal function have concurrent indications for anticoagulant therapy, including atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism. For mild chronic kidney disease, data from clinical trials and existing guidelines can be applied to clinical management. The benefits and harms of anticoagulation therapy in patients with more advanced renal impairment are nuanced, as both thrombotic and bleeding risk are increased. Until recently, data regarding anticoagulants in severe renal impairment were primarily observational, but emerging evidence includes a few small clinical trials and the emergence of novel agents hypothesized to have improved efficacy and safety in this population. In this review, we summarize existing data on anticoagulation in patients with chronic kidney disease. We suggest a framework for anticoagulation decision-making in the burgeoning worldwide population of patients with chronic kidney disease.

Anticoagulation and compression therapy for proximal acute deep vein thrombosis

The treatment of proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs includes an initial management phase, covering the first 1 to 3 weeks, a primary treatment phase, lasting a minimum of 3 months, and a secondary treatment phase for those patients requiring continuing anticoagulation beyond the first 3 to 6 months. During the initial phase most patients with DVT can be managed as outpatients. Exclusion criteria for home treatment include high risk of bleeding, limb threatening DVT or other conditions requiring hospitalisation. Anticoagulant drugs represent the mainstay of treatment and include parenteral drugs such as unfractionated heparin or low molecular weight heparin, and oral drugs such as the vitamin K antagonists and the direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). DOACs are currently recommended as the first line of treatment for proximal DVT of the lower limbs, with no preference for one DOAC over another. Factors to consider when choosing the anticoagulant strategy include, among others, renal and liver function, underlying diseases such as cancer or the antiphospholipid syndrome, and patient preferences. Indefinite duration of anticoagulation beyond the first 3 to 6 months is recommended for patients with unprovoked DVT and patients with permanent, chronic risk factors. Two DOACs, namely apixaban and rivaroxaban, can be administered at low doses for the secondary prevention of DVT. Elastic compression stockings (ECS) have been used for decades in patients with proximal DVT with the aim of counteracting the venous hypertension generated by the vascular disorder and reducing leg edema and to prevent the post-thrombotic syndrome.

Poor patients' knowledge about venous thromboembolism and its therapy is associated with increased risk of major bleeding and discontinuation of anticoagulation: A cohort study

It has been shown that patients' knowledge about venous thromboembolism (VTE) and its therapy is suboptimal, which might reduce compliance and worsen prognosis. We investigated whether low VTE patients' knowledge affects their clinical outcomes during long-term follow-up. We evaluated 151 consecutive patients (51.8 ± 15.7 years) after unprovoked VTE, who were recruited from the outpatient clinic (Krakow, Poland). All patients received anticoagulant treatment, mostly with direct oral anticoagulants (n = 113, 74.8%). The modified Jessa Atrial fibrillation Knowledge Questionnaire (JAKQ-VTE; 16 questions) was used to assess the knowledge of VTE and anticoagulant therapy. During a median follow-up of 58.0 months, VTE recurrence, major bleeding, and anticoagulation withdrawal were recorded. The median percentage of correct responses was 62.5% (12.5-100%) and was inversely correlated with age (P < .01). Diabetic patients and those with positive family history of VTE had lower overall scoring compared to the remainder (both P < .05). Major bleeding (n = 10, 6.6%) and anticoagulation withdrawal (n = 28, 18.5%), but not VTE recurrence (n = 12, 7.9%), were associated with lower overall scoring compared to the remainder (48.8% ± 12.5% vs 63.8% ± 16.3%, P = .003 and 55.3% ± 14.7% vs 64.4% ± 16.3%, P = .040, respectively). Major bleeding was independently associated with the female sex (hazard ratio [HR] 6.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-33.19, P = .034), younger age (HR per 10 years 0.55; 95% CI 0.34-0.90, P = .016), OAC therapy discontinuation (HR 6.69; 95% CI 1.62-27.70), and lower overall scoring of JAKQ-VTE (HR 0.60 per 10 percentage points; 95% CI 0.40-0.92, P = .019). Insufficient knowledge about VTE and anticoagulant treatment predisposes to a higher risk of major bleeding and therapy discontinuation, but not VTE recurrence in unprovoked VTE patients during long-term follow-up.

Prognostic Significance of Heart Failure in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: A Comprehensive Assessment of 30-Day Outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Patients with heart failure (HF) are known to have an increased risk of pulmonary embolism (PE), but there is limited evidence regarding the prognostic implications of HF in patients with acute PE and the relationship between PE prognosis and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). The primary objective of this study was the development of a composite outcome (mortality, major bleeding, and recurrence) within the first 30 days. The secondary objective was to identify the role of LVEF in predicting the development of early complications in patients with both HF and reduced LVEF.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A prospective study was conducted at two tertiary hospitals between January 2012 and December 2022 to assess differences among patients diagnosed with acute PE based on the presence or absence of a history of HF. Cox regression models were employed to assess the impact of HF and reduced LVEF on the composite outcome at 30 days.

RESULTS

Out of 1991 patients with acute symptomatic PE, 7.13% had a history of HF. Patients with HF were older and had more comorbidities. The HF group exhibited higher mortality (11.27% vs. 4.33%, p < 0.001) and a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.86% vs. 4.54%, p = 0.005). In the multivariate analysis, HF was an independent risk factor for the development of the composite outcome (HR 1.93; 95% CI 1.35-2.76). Reduced LVEF was independently associated with a higher risk of major bleeding (HR 3.44; 95% CI 1.34-8.81).

CONCLUSION

In patients with acute pulmonary embolism, heart failure is independently associated with a higher risk of early complications. Additionally, heart failure with reduced LVEF is an independent risk factor for major bleeding.

Management of bleeding risk in patients who receive anticoagulant therapy for venous thromboembolism: Communication from the ISTH SSC Subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease

Patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) require anticoagulant therapy to prevent recurrent VTE and death, which exposes them to an inherent increased risk of bleeding. Identification of patients at high risk of bleeding, and mitigating this risk, is an essential component of the immediate and long-term therapeutic management of VTE. The bleeding risk can be estimated by either implicit judgment, weighing individual predictors (clinical variables or biomarkers), or by risk prediction tools developed for this purpose. Management of bleeding risk in clinical practice is, however, far from standardized. International guidelines are contradictory and lack clear and consistent guidance on the optimal management of bleeding risk. This report of the ISTH subcommittee on Predictive and Diagnostic Variables in Thrombotic Disease summarizes the evidence on the prediction of bleeding in VTE patients. We systematically searched the literature and identified 34 original studies evaluating either predictors or risk prediction models for prediction of bleeding risk on anticoagulation in VTE patients. Based on this evidence, we provide recommendations for the standardized management of bleeding risk in VTE patients.

Assessment and Mitigation of Bleeding Risk in Atrial Fibrillation and Venous Thromboembolism: Executive Summary of a European and Asia-Pacific Expert Consensus Paper

While there is a clear clinical benefit of oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) in reducing the risks of thromboembolism, major bleeding events (especially intracranial bleeds) may still occur and be devastating. The decision for initiating and continuing anticoagulation is often based on a careful assessment of both thromboembolism and bleeding risk. The more common and validated bleeding risk factors have been used to formulate bleeding risk stratification scores, but thromboembolism and bleeding risk factors often overlap. Also, many factors that increase bleeding risk are transient and modifiable, such as variable international normalized ratio values, surgical procedures, vascular procedures, or drug-drug and food-drug interactions. Bleeding risk is also not a static "one-off" assessment based on baseline factors but is dynamic, being influenced by aging, incident comorbidities, and drug therapies. In this executive summary of a European and Asia-Pacific Expert Consensus Paper, we comprehensively review the published evidence and propose a consensus on bleeding risk assessments in patients with AF and VTE, with a view to summarizing "best practice" when approaching antithrombotic therapy in these patients. We address the epidemiology and size of the problem of bleeding risk in AF and VTE, and review established bleeding risk factors and summarize definitions of bleeding. Patient values and preferences, balancing the risk of bleeding against thromboembolism, are reviewed, and the prognostic implications of bleeding are discussed. We propose consensus statements that may help to define evidence gaps and assist in everyday clinical practice.

Assessment and mitigation of bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A Position Paper from the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis, in collaboration with the European Heart Rhythm Association, the Association for Acute CardioVascular Care and the Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society

Whilst there is a clear clinical benefit of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) in reducing the risks of thromboembolism, major bleeding events (especially intracranial bleeds) may still occur and be devastating. The decision to initiate and continue anticoagulation is often based on a careful assessment of both the thromboembolism and bleeding risk. The more common and validated bleeding risk factors have been used to formulate bleeding risk stratification scores, but thromboembolism and bleeding risk factors often overlap. Also, many factors that increase bleeding risk are transient and modifiable, such as variable international normalized ratio values, surgical procedures, vascular procedures, or drug-drug and food-drug interactions. Bleeding risk is also not a static 'one off' assessment based on baseline factors but is dynamic, being influenced by ageing, incident comorbidities, and drug therapies. In this Consensus Document, we comprehensively review the published evidence and propose a consensus on bleeding risk assessments in patients with AF and VTE, with the view to summarizing 'best practice' when approaching antithrombotic therapy in these patients. We address the epidemiology and size of the problem of bleeding risk in AF and VTE, review established bleeding risk factors, and summarize definitions of bleeding. Patient values and preferences, balancing the risk of bleeding against thromboembolism are reviewed, and the prognostic implications of bleeding are discussed. We propose consensus statements that may help to define evidence gaps and assist in everyday clinical practice.

Prediction of bleeding events using the VTE-BLEED risk score in patients with venous thromboembolism receiving anticoagulant therapy (Review)

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major healthcare problem due to its high incidence, significant mortality rate from pulmonary embolism, high recurrence rate and morbidity from long-term complications. After a first episode of VTE all patients must receive anticoagulant treatment for 3 months. Further anticoagulation is recommended in patients without transient risk factors for VTE or patients with active cancer, if they are not at a high risk for bleeding. The VTE-BLEED risk score was created with the purpose of enabling a better stratification of the bleeding risk during stable anticoagulation after a first VTE. Currently, it is the most validated risk score in VTE settings (selected and non-selected cohorts). It has a good prediction power for major bleeding events in patients receiving any of the currently available classes of oral anticoagulants, and it can identify patients at risk of intracranial and fatal bleeding events. The aim of our review was to highlight the strengths of the VTE-BLEED risk score, to acknowledge its weak points and to properly position its use in current medical practice.

Prediction of Major Bleeding in Anticoagulated Patients for Venous Thromboembolism: Comparison of the RIETE and the VTE-BLEED Scores

The performance of validated bleeding risk scores in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) could be different depending on the time after index event or the site of bleeding. In this study we compared the "classic" Registro Informatizado de Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) score and the more recently developed VTE-BLEED score for the prediction of major bleeding in patients under anticoagulant therapy in different time intervals after VTE diagnosis. Out of 82,239 patients with acute VTE, the proportion of high-risk patients according to the RIETE and VTE-BLEED scores was 7.1 and 62.3%, respectively. The performance of both scores across the different study periods (first 30 days after VTE diagnosis, days 31-90, days 91-180, and days 181-360) was similar, with areas under the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC) ranging between 0.69 and 0.72. However, the positive predictive values were low, ranging between 0.6 and 3.9 (better for early major bleeding than for later periods). A sensitivity analysis limited to patients with unprovoked VTE showed comparable results. Both scores showed a trend toward a better prediction of extracranial than intracranial major bleeding, the RIETE score resulting more useful for early extracranial bleeding and the VTE-BLEED for late intracranial hemorrhages. Our study reveals that the usefulness of available bleeding scores may vary depending on the characteristics of the patient population and the time frame evaluated. Dynamic scores could be more useful for this purpose.

Estimating Bleeding Risk in Patients with Cancer-Associated Thrombosis: Evaluation of Existing Risk Scores and Development of a New Risk Score

BACKGROUND

 Bleeding risk is highly relevant for treatment decisions in cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT). Several risk scores exist, but have never been validated in patients with CAT and are not recommended for practice.

OBJECTIVES

 To compare methods of estimating clinically relevant (major and clinically relevant nonmajor) bleeding risk in patients with CAT: (1) existing risk scores for bleeding in venous thromboembolism, (2) pragmatic classification based on cancer type, and (3) new prediction model.

METHODS

 In a posthoc analysis of the Hokusai VTE Cancer study, a randomized trial comparing edoxaban with dalteparin for treatment of CAT, seven bleeding risk scores were externally validated (ACCP-VTE, HAS-BLED, Hokusai, Kuijer, Martinez, RIETE, and VTE-BLEED). The predictive performance of these scores was compared with a pragmatic classification based on cancer type (gastrointestinal; genitourinary; other) and a newly derived competing risk-adjusted prediction model based on clinical predictors for clinically relevant bleeding within 6 months after CAT diagnosis with nonbleeding-related mortality as the competing event ("CAT-BLEED").

RESULTS

 Data of 1,046 patients (149 events) were analyzed. Predictive performance of existing risk scores was poor to moderate (C-statistics: 0.50-0.57; poor calibration). Internal validation of the pragmatic classification and "CAT-BLEED" showed moderate performance (respective C-statistics: 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.66, and 0.63; 95% CI 0.58-0.68; good calibration).

CONCLUSION

 Existing risk scores for bleeding perform poorly after CAT. Pragmatic classification based on cancer type provides marginally better estimates of clinically relevant bleeding risk. Further improvement may be achieved with "CAT-BLEED," but this requires external validation in practice-based settings and with other DOACs and its clinical usefulness is yet to be demonstrated.

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and critical appraisal

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding are infrequently used when deciding on anticoagulant treatment duration after venous thromboembolism (VTE) due to concerns about performance and validity. Our aim was to critically appraise these models by systematically summarizing data from derivation and validation studies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched until November 15th, 2019. Studies on prediction models for recurrence or bleeding after at least 3 months of anticoagulation in adult patients with VTE were included. The PROBAST, ROBINS-I and RoB2 tools were used to assess risk of bias and applicability.

RESULTS

Selection yielded 18 studies evaluating 8 models for recurrence (7 on development; 9 on validation; 1 update). Generally, models for recurrent VTE appeared to perform poorly to moderately in external validation studies (C-statistics 0.39-0.66, one 0.83). However, impact studies show that HERDOO2 and Vienna prediction model may identify patients with unprovoked VTE at low recurrence risk. Sixteen studies evaluating 14 models for anticoagulation-related bleeding were identified (7 on development; 9 on validation). Although some models seemed promising in development studies, their predictive performance was poor to moderate in external validation (C-statistics 0.52-0.71). All but 3 studies were considered at high risk of bias, mainly due to limitations in the statistical analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic models for recurrence and anticoagulation-related bleeding risk often have important methodological limitations and insufficient predictive accuracy. These findings do not support their use in clinical practice to weigh risks of recurrence and bleeding when deciding on continuing anticoagulation after initial treatment of VTE.

How I assess and manage the risk of bleeding in patients treated for venous thromboembolism

For patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), prediction of bleeding is relevant throughout the course of treatment, although the means and goal of this prediction differ between the subsequent stages of treatment: treatment initiation, hospital discharge, 3-month follow-up, and long-term follow-up. Even in the absence of fully established risk prediction schemes and outcome studies using a prediction scheme for treatment decisions, the present evidence supports screening for and targeting of modifiable risk factors for major bleeding, as well as the application of decision rules to identify patients at low risk of bleeding complications, in whom long-term anticoagulant treatment is likely safe. Moving forward, prediction tools need to be incorporated in well-designed randomized controlled trials aiming to establish optimal treatment duration in patients at high risk of recurrent VTE. Moreover, the benefit of their longitudinal assessment rather than application as stand-alone baseline assessments should be studied, because changes in bleeding risk over time likely constitute the best predictor of major bleeding. We provide the state-of-the-art of assessing and managing bleeding risk in patients with acute VTE and highlight a practical approach for daily practice illustrated by 2 case scenarios.

Validation of the VTE-BLEED score's long-term performance for major bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolisms: From the COMMAND VTE registry

BACKGROUND

The recently proposed VTE-BLEED score to predict the risk of major bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolisms (VTEs) on prolonged anticoagulation therapy was validated externally in randomized controlled trials and in a selected cohort, but not applied in non-selective cohorts.

OBJECTIVES

The present study aimed to evaluate the generalizability of the VTE-BLEED score in a non-selective cohort.

PATIENTS/METHODS

The COMMAND VTE Registry is a multicenter retrospective registry enrolling consecutive patients with acute symptomatic VTEs among 29 centers in Japan. The present study population consisted of 2124 patients with prolonged anticoagulation therapy beyond 30 days, including 2008 (95%) patients with a first VTE episode and 1075 (51%) with unprovoked VTEs, who were divided into 1445 patients (68%) with a VTE-BLEED score of ≥2 (high-risk group) and 679 (32%) with a VTE-BLEED score of <2 (low-risk group).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 672 days, major bleeding events occurred in 121 patients. The cumulative 5-year incidence of major bleeding beyond 30 days was significantly higher in the high-risk group than low-risk group (13.2% versus 5.4%, P < .001). The hazard function curves demonstrated that the hazards of the high-risk group were consistently higher over time compared with the low-risk group, which suggested the long-term predictive ability of the score.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present real-world VTE registry, the VTE-BLEED score had  a long-term predictive ability for high-risk patients with major bleeding during prolonged anticoagulation therapy, which could be useful in determining the optimal duration of anticoagulation therapy in individual patients.