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Estimating the immunogenicity of measles-rubella vaccination administered during a mass campaign in Lao People's Democratic Republic using multi-valent seroprevalence data. Sci Rep 2019; 9:12545. [PMID: 31467441 PMCID: PMC6715652 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-49018-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2018] [Accepted: 08/13/2019] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Measles and rubella are important causes of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite high coverage reported for measles vaccination, outbreaks continue to occur in some countries. The reasons for these outbreaks are poorly understood. We apply Bayesian methods to multi-valent seroprevalence data for measles and rubella, collected 2 years and 3 months after a mass measles-rubella vaccination campaign in Lao PDR to estimate the immunogenicity and vaccination coverage. When the vaccination coverage was constrained to exceed 95% or 90%, consistent with officially-reported values, the immunogenicity of the measles vaccine component was unexpectedly low (75% (95% CR: 63–82%) and 79% (CR: 70–87%) respectively. The estimated immunogenicity increased after relaxing constraints on the vaccination coverage, with best-fitting values of 83% (95% CR: 73–91%) and 97% (95% CR: 90–100%) for the measles and rubella components respectively, with an estimated coverage of 83% (95% CR: 80–88%). The findings suggest that, if the vaccine coverage was as high as that reported, continuing measles outbreaks in Lao PDR, and potentially elsewhere, may be attributable to suboptimal immunogenicity attained in mass campaigns. Vaccine management in countries with high reported levels of coverage and ongoing measles outbreaks needs to be reviewed if measles elimination targets are to be achieved.
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Abrams S, Kourkouni E, Sabbe M, Beutels P, Hens N. Inferring rubella outbreak risk from seroprevalence data in Belgium. Vaccine 2016; 34:6187-6192. [PMID: 27840011 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.10.072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2016] [Revised: 10/13/2016] [Accepted: 10/28/2016] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
Rubella is usually a mild disease for which infections often pass by unnoticed. In approximately 50% of the cases, there are no or only few clinical symptoms. However, rubella contracted during early pregnancy could lead to spontaneous abortion, to central nervous system defects, or to one of a range of other serious and debilitating conditions in a newborn such as the congenital rubella syndrome. Before the introduction of mass vaccination, rubella was a common childhood infection occurring all over the world. However, since the introduction of rubella antigen-containing vaccines, the incidence of rubella has declined dramatically in high-income countries. Recent large-scale mumps outbreaks, one of the components in the combined measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, occurring in countries throughout Europe with high vaccination coverage, provide evidence of pathogen-specific waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In addition, recent measles outbreaks affecting populations with suboptimal vaccination coverages stress the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverages. In this paper, we focus on the assessment of rubella outbreak risk using a previously developed method to identify geographic regions of high outbreak potential. The methodology relies on 2006 rubella seroprevalence data and vaccination coverage data from Belgium and information on primary and secondary vaccine failure obtained from extensive literature reviews. We estimated the rubella outbreak risk in Belgium to be low, however maintaining high levels of immunisation and surveillance are of utmost importance to avoid future outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Abrams
- Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, UHasselt (Hasselt University), Diepenbeek, Belgium.
| | - Eleni Kourkouni
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Outcomes Research (CLEO), Athens, Greece
| | - Martine Sabbe
- Service of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Department of Public Health and Surveillance, Scientific Institute for Public Health, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Philippe Beutels
- Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases and Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Niel Hens
- Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, UHasselt (Hasselt University), Diepenbeek, Belgium; Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases and Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
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Exum NG, Pisanic N, Granger DA, Schwab KJ, Detrick B, Kosek M, Egorov AI, Griffin SM, Heaney CD. Use of Pathogen-Specific Antibody Biomarkers to Estimate Waterborne Infections in Population-Based Settings. Curr Environ Health Rep 2016; 3:322-34. [PMID: 27352014 PMCID: PMC5424709 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-016-0096-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW This review discusses the utility of pathogen-specific antibody biomarkers for improving estimates of the population burden of waterborne infections, assessing the fraction of infections that can be prevented by specific water treatments, and understanding transmission routes and the natural history and ecology of disease in different populations (including asymptomatic infection rates). RECENT FINDINGS We review recent literature on the application of pathogen-specific antibody response data to estimate incidence and prevalence of acute infections and their utility to assess the contributions of waterborne transmission pathways. Advantages and technical challenges associated with the use of serum versus minimally invasive salivary antibody biomarkers in cross-sectional and prospective surveys are discussed. We highlight recent advances and challenges and outline future directions for research, development, and application of antibody-based and other immunological biomarkers of waterborne infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie G Exum
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Nora Pisanic
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Douglas A Granger
- Institute for Interdisciplinary Salivary Bioscience Research, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
- Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Acute and Chronic Care, School of Nursing, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Kellogg J Schwab
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Barbara Detrick
- Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Margaret Kosek
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Andrey I Egorov
- National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Shannon M Griffin
- National Exposure Research Laboratory, US Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Christopher D Heaney
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Room W7033B, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, Maryland, 21205-2179, USA.
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Thompson KM. Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1383-1403. [PMID: 27277138 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care.
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Abrams S, Beutels P, Hens N. Assessing mumps outbreak risk in highly vaccinated populations using spatial seroprevalence data. Am J Epidemiol 2014; 179:1006-17. [PMID: 24573540 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Mumps is a potentially severe viral infection. The incidence of mumps has declined dramatically in high-income countries since the introduction of mumps antigen-containing vaccines. However, recent large outbreaks of mumps in highly vaccinated populations suggest waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In this paper we present a simple method for identifying geographic regions with high outbreak potential, demonstrated using 2006 mumps seroprevalence data from Belgium and Belgian vaccination coverage data. Predictions of the outbreak potential in terms of the effective reproduction number in future years signal an increased risk of new mumps outbreaks. Literature reviews on serological information for both primary vaccine failure and waning immunity provide essential information for our predictions. Tailor-made additional vaccination campaigns would be valuable for decreasing local pockets of susceptibility, thereby reducing the risk of future large-scale mumps outbreaks.
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