Confidence intervals for difference in proportions for matched pairs compatible with exact McNemar's or sign tests

Machine Learning-Based Critical Congenital Heart Disease Screening Using Dual-Site Pulse Oximetry Measurements

BACKGROUND

Oxygen saturation (Spo2) screening has not led to earlier detection of critical congenital heart disease (CCHD). Adding pulse oximetry features (ie, perfusion data and radiofemoral pulse delay) may improve CCHD detection, especially coarctation of the aorta (CoA). We developed and tested a machine learning (ML) pulse oximetry algorithm to enhance CCHD detection.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Six sites prospectively enrolled newborns with and without CCHD and recorded simultaneous pre- and postductal pulse oximetry. We focused on models at 1 versus 2 time points and with/without pulse delay for our ML algorithms. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were compared between the Spo2-alone and ML algorithms. A total of 523 newborns were enrolled (no CHD, 317; CHD, 74; CCHD, 132, of whom 21 had isolated CoA). When applying the Spo2-alone algorithm to all patients, 26.2% of CCHD would be missed. We narrowed the sample to patients with both 2 time point measurements and pulse-delay data (no CHD, 65; CCHD, 14) to compare ML performance. Among these patients, sensitivity for CCHD detection increased with both the addition of pulse delay and a second time point. All ML models had 100% specificity. With a 2-time-points+pulse-delay model, CCHD sensitivity increased to 92.86% (P=0.25) compared with Spo2 alone (71.43%), and CoA increased to 66.67% (P=0.5) from 0. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CCHD and CoA detection significantly improved (0.96 versus 0.83 for CCHD, 0.83 versus 0.48 for CoA; both P=0.03) using the 2-time-points+pulse-delay model compared with Spo2 alone.

CONCLUSIONS

ML pulse oximetry that combines oxygenation, perfusion data, and pulse delay at 2 time points may improve detection of CCHD and CoA within 48 hours after birth.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04056104?term=NCT04056104&rank=1; Unique identifier: NCT04056104.

SWI versus GRE-T2*: Assessing cortical superficial siderosis in advanced cerebral amyloid angiopathy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Cortical superficial siderosis (cSS) is a key neuroimaging marker of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) detected on blood-sensitive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We aimed to assess cSS in advanced CAA patients and explore differences in its evaluation between susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI) and gradient recalled echo-T2* (GRE-T2*).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Neuroimaging data gathered from a prospective cohort of CAA patients with probable or definite CAA were retrospectively analyzed by two independent raters. SWI and GRE-T2* were used to assess presence and severity (absent, focal [≤3 sulci] or disseminated [>3 sulci]) of cSS and number of foci. Ratings were compared between sequences and inter-rater agreement was determined. Post hoc analysis explored differences in cSS multifocality scores.

RESULTS

We detected cSS in 38 patients with SWI and in 36 with GRE-T2* (70.4% versus 66.7%; P=0.5). The two raters agreed in detecting more disseminated cSS when using SWI: 16 focal (29.63%) and 20 disseminated (37.04%) cases of cSS seen on GRE-T2* and 11 (20.37%) focal and 27 (50%) disseminated cSS cases seen using SWI (P=0.008). Inter-rater agreement was equivalent for the two sequences (κpresence 0.7 versus 0.69; κseverity 0.74 versus 0.66) for assessing both presence and severity of cSS. Post hoc analysis showed higher multifocality scores from both raters' SWI evaluations, with agreement equivalent to that for T2* evaluations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that SWI ratings could show more disseminated cSS and higher multifocality scores in advanced CAA patients with inter-rater reliability equivalent to that obtained using GRE-T2*, regardless of level of experience.

Diagnostic utility of combining PRAME and HMB-45 stains in primary melanocytic tumors

BACKGROUND

Pathologists face ongoing challenges distinguishing between benign and malignant melanocytic tumors. PRAME (PReferentially expressed Antigen in Melanoma) has a demonstrated value distinguishing between these types of lesions. However, the sensitivity of single immunohistochemistry is variable. HMB-45 is another valuable marker, but on its own, has a limited ability in setting of primary melanocytic tumors. This study sought to evaluate the diagnostic potential of a dual panel combining PRAME and HMB-45 in the assessment of primary melanocytic tumors.

METHODS

259 tumors, of which 141 were benign nevi, 31 dysplastic nevi (either low- or high grade dysplasia), and further 87 malignant melanomas, were retrieved from the department's archives and assessed by two experienced dermatopathologists. New sections were stained with PRAME and HMB-45, respectively. For PRAME, a nuclear, and for HMB-45, a cytoplasmic staining, was considered positive and scored as described in the literature on a scale from 0 to 4+. Only dermal component was assessed on HMB-45 stain.

RESULTS

PRAME was diffusely expressed in only 1 benign nevus, with focal expression in further 28 compared to 22 diffusely and 103 focally HMB-45-positive benign nevi. 5 high-grade dysplastic nevi showed diffuse PRAME expression in epidermal component, with varying degree of positivity in adjacent dermal compartment, and further 8 dysplastic nevi showed only focal expression. HMB-45 was diffusely expressed in only 2, with focal expression in 23, and no apparent positivity in remaining 6 dysplastic nevi. In invasive melanoma group, PRAME stained >75 % cells in 64/87 tumors, however, 10/87 melanomas were completely negative. HMB-45 was captured diffusely in 49/87 melanomas, 32 showed patchy expression, and 6 tumors were blank negative. Diffuse 4+ PRAME positivity showed superior sensitivity and specificity of 73,6 % and 96,5 %, respectively, compared to HMB-45, 56,3 % and 86,0 %, respectively. No nevi showed double 4+ positivity, however, the sensitivity for double positivity was only 49,4 %.

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm the superiority of PRAME over HMB-45 in the differential diagnosis of melanocytic tumors. However, combined staining can significantly increase specificity, rendering a benign diagnosis more unlikely in a double 4+ diffuse positivity setting.

Development and clinical validation of a novel algorithmic score (GAAD) for detecting HCC in prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma carboxyprothrombin (DCP), also known as protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II [DCP]) are biomarkers for HCC with limited diagnostic value when used in isolation. The novel GAAD algorithm is an in vitro diagnostic combining PIVKA-II (DCP) and AFP measurements, age, and gender (biological sex) to generate a semi-quantitative result. We conducted prospective studies to develop, implement, and clinically validate the GAAD algorithm for differentiating HCC (early and all-stage) and benign chronic liver disease (CLD), across disease stages and etiologies.

METHODS

Patients aged ≥18 years with HCC or CLD were prospectively enrolled internationally into algorithm development [n = 1084; 309 HCC cases (40.7% early-stage) and 736 controls] and clinical validation studies [n = 877; 366 HCC cases (47.6% early-stage) and 303 controls]. Serum samples were analyzed on a cobas® e 601 analyzer. Performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses to calculate AUC.

RESULTS

For algorithm development, AUC for differentiation between early-stage HCC and CLD was 90.7%, 84.4%, and 77.2% for GAAD, AFP, and PIVKA-II, respectively. The sensitivity of GAAD for the detection of early-stage HCC was 71.8% with 90.0% specificity. Similar results were shown in the clinical validation study; AUC for differentiation between early-stage HCC and CLD was 91.4% with 70.1% sensitivity and 93.7% specificity. GAAD also showed strong specificity, with a lower rate of false positives regardless of disease stage, etiology, or region.

CONCLUSIONS

The GAAD algorithm significantly improves early-stage HCC detection for patients with CLD undergoing HCC surveillance. Further phase III and IV studies are warranted to assess the utility of incorporating the algorithm into clinical practice.

A phase III randomized crossover trial of plerixafor versus G-CSF for treatment of WHIM syndrome

BACKGROUNDWarts, hypogammaglobulinemia, infections, and myelokathexis (WHIM) syndrome is a primary immunodeficiency disorder caused by heterozygous gain-of-function CXCR4 mutations. Myelokathexis is a kind of neutropenia caused by neutrophil retention in bone marrow and in WHIM syndrome is associated with lymphopenia and monocytopenia. The CXCR4 antagonist plerixafor mobilizes leukocytes to the blood; however, its safety and efficacy in WHIM syndrome are undefined.METHODSIn this investigator-initiated, single-center, quadruple-masked phase III crossover trial, we compared the total infection severity score (TISS) as the primary endpoint in an intent-to-treat manner in 19 patients with WHIM who each received 12 months treatment with plerixafor and 12 months treatment with granulocyte CSF (G-CSF, the standard of care for severe congenital neutropenia). The treatment order was randomized for each patient.RESULTSPlerixafor was nonsuperior to G-CSF for TISS (P = 0.54). In exploratory endpoints, plerixafor was noninferior to G-CSF for maintaining neutrophil counts of more than 500 cells/μL (P = 0.023) and was superior to G-CSF for maintaining lymphocyte counts above 1,000 cells/μL (P < 0.0001). Complete regression of a subset of large wart areas occurred on plerixafor in 5 of 7 patients with major wart burdens at baseline. Transient rash occurred on plerixafor, and bone pain was more common on G-CSF. There were no significant differences in drug preference or quality of life or the incidence of drug failure or serious adverse events.CONCLUSIONPlerixafor was not superior to G-CSF in patients with WHIM for TISS, the primary endpoint. Together with wart regression and hematologic improvement, the infection severity results support continued study of plerixafor as a potential treatment for WHIM syndrome.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicaltrials.gov NCT02231879.FUNDINGThis study was funded by the Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Seizure outcome of pediatric magnetic resonance-guided laser interstitial thermal therapy versus open surgery: A matched noninferiority cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Minimally invasive magnetic resonance-guided laser interstitial thermal therapy (MRgLITT) has been proposed as an alternative to open epilepsy surgery, to address concerns regarding the risk of open surgery. Our primary hypothesis was that seizure freedom at 1 year after MRgLITT is noninferior to open surgery in children with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE). The secondary hypothesis was that MRgLITT has fewer complications and shorter hospitalization than surgery. The primary objective was to compare seizure outcome of MRgLITT to open surgery in children with DRE. The secondary objective was to compare complications and length of hospitalization of the two treatments.

METHODS

This retrospective multicenter cohort study included children with DRE treated with MRgLITT or open surgery with 1-year follow-up. Exclusion criteria were corpus callosotomy, neurostimulation, multilobar or hemispheric surgery, and lesion with maximal dimension > 60 mm. MRgLITT patients were propensity matched to open surgery patients. The primary outcome was seizure freedom at 1 year posttreatment. The difference in seizure freedom was compared using noninferiority test, with noninferiority margin of -10%. The secondary outcomes were complications and length of hospitalization.

RESULTS

One hundred eighty-five MRgLITT patients were matched to 185 open surgery patients. Seizure freedom at 1 year follow-up was observed in 89 of 185 (48.1%) MRgLITT and 114 of 185 (61.6%) open surgery patients (difference = -13.5%, one-sided 97.5% confidence interval = -23.8% to ∞, p_{Noninferiority}  = .79). The lower confidence interval boundary of -23.8% was below the prespecified noninferiority margin of -10%. Overall complications were lower in MRgLITT compared to open surgery (10.8% vs. 29.2%, respectively, p < .001). Hospitalization was shorter for MRgLITT than open surgery (3.1 ± 2.9 vs. 7.2 ± 6.1 days, p < .001).

SIGNIFICANCE

Seizure outcome of MRgLITT at 1 year posttreatment was inferior to open surgery. However, MRgLITT has the advantage of better safety profile and shorter hospitalization. The findings will help counsel children and parents on the benefits and risks of MRgLITT and contribute to informed decision-making on treatment options.

Approximate confidence intervals for the difference in proportions for partially observed binary data

We consider partially observed binary matched-pair data. We assume that the incomplete subjects are missing at random. Within this missing framework, we propose an EM-algorithm based approach to construct an interval estimator of the proportion difference incorporating all the subjects. In conjunction with our proposed method, we also present two improvements to the interval estimator through some correction factors. The performances of the three competing methods are then evaluated through extensive simulation. Recommendation for the method is given based on the ability to preserve type-I error for various sample sizes. Finally, the methods are illustrated in two real-world data sets. An R-function is developed to implement the three proposed methods.