Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates

Understanding the determinants of the range expansion of invasive alien species is crucial for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Nevertheless, we still lack a global picture of the potential factors influencing the invaded range expansion across taxonomic groups, especially for the world's worst invaders with high ecological and economic impacts. Here, by extensively collecting data on 363 distributional ranges of 19 of world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates across 135 invaded administrative jurisdictions, we observed remarkable variations in the range expansion across species and taxonomic groups. After controlling for taxonomic and geographic pseudoreplicates, model averaging analyses based on generalized additive mixed-effect models showed that species in invaded regions having climates more similar to those of their native ranges tended to undergo a larger range expansion. In addition, as proxies of propagule pressure and human-assisted transportation, the number of introduction events and the road network density were also important predictors facilitating the range expansion. Further variance partitioning analyses validated the predominant role of climate match in explaining the range expansion. Our study demonstrated that regions with similar climates to their native ranges could still be prioritized to prevent the spread of invasive species under the sustained global change.

The effectiveness of citizen surveillance for detecting exotic vertebrates

Citizen observations of the natural world are increasing in detail, growing in volume and increasingly being shared on web-based platforms for the purpose of sharing information and/or the crowd-sourcing of species identification. From a biosecurity perspective, such citizen data streams are important as they are responsible for the majority of post-border reports and most detections of exotic pest species of concern. The sharing of sightings amongst what are effectively communities of practice is a key driver of having the sighting of an exotic pest species recognized and reported. Whilst it is clear that the eyes, ears, cameras, and microphones of citizens are a major component of biosecurity surveillance, it is unclear what level of surveillance this provides in the prospective sense. As an example, what confidence does citizen science provide about “proof of absence” for exotic pests of concern? The taxonomy of surveillance used within the field of biosecurity would classify such citizen activities as contributing to “general surveillance,” for which non-detections are typically not recorded and methods of quantitative analysis are still under development. We argue that while not recorded, there is considerable information about citizens activities that routinely underpins peoples mental inference about the level of surveillance provided by citizen activities. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to make such inference from general surveillance transparent by describing and characterizing the activities that potentially generate sightings in a way that is amenable to quantitative analysis. In the context of evaluating surveillance provided by citizens for incursions of exotic vertebrates, we provide examples of citizen observations providing early warning and hence preventing the establishment of species from a range of animal groups. Historically, analysis of the power of general surveillance has been restricted to being conceptual, based on qualitative arguments. We provide this, but also provide a quantitative model framework and provide examples of how different forms of general surveillance data may be analyzed, particularly in supporting inference of eradication/extinction.

Trends in anecdotal fox sightings in Tasmania accounted for by psychological factors

There has been little evaluation of anecdotal sightings as a means to confirm new incursions of invasive species. This paper explores the potential for equivocal information communicated by the media to account for patterns of anecdotal reports. In 2001, it was widely reported that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in the island state of Tasmania (Australia), although this claim was later revealed to be baseless. Regardless, by 2013 a total of 3153 anecdotal fox sightings had been reported by members of the public, which implied their distribution was wide. For each month in 2001-2003, we defined a monthly media index (MMI) of fox-related media coverage, an index of their relative seasonal abundance (abundance), and a factor denoting claims of fox evidence (claimed evidence) regardless of its evidentiary quality. We fitted a generalized linear model with Poisson error for monthly totals of anecdotal sightings with factors of year and claimed evidence and covariates of MMI, abundance, and hours of darkness. The collective effect of psychological factors (MMI, claimed evidence, and year) relative to biophysical factors (photoperiod and abundance) was highly significant (χ² = 122.1, df = 6, p < 0.0001), whereas anticipated changes in abundance had no significant influence on reported sightings (p = 0.15). An annual index of fox media from 2001 to 2010 was strongly associated with the yearly tally of anecdotal sightings (p = 0.018). The odds ratio of sightings ranked as reliable by the fox eradication program in any year decreased exponentially at a rate of 0.00643 as the total number of sightings increased (p < 0.0001) and was indicative of an observer-expectancy bias. Our results suggest anecdotal sightings are highly susceptible to cognitive biases and when used to qualify and quantify species presence can contribute to flawed risk assessments.

Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

The dispersion and detection patterns of mtDNA-assigned red fox Vulpes vulpes scats in Tasmania are anomalous

Models used for resource allocation in eradication programmes must be based on replicated data of known quality and have proven predictive accuracy, or they may provide a false indication of species presence and/or distribution. In the absence of data corroborating the presence of extant foxes Vulpes vulpes in Tasmania, a habitat-specific model based upon mtDNA data (Sarre et al. 2012. Journal Applied Ecology, 50, 459-468) implied that foxes were widespread. Overall, 61 of 9940 (0·6%) surveyed scats were assigned as mtDNA fox positive by the fox eradication programme (FEP). We investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of the 61 mtDNA-assigned fox scats and modelled the probability of replicating scat detection in independent surveys using detection dogs based upon empirically derived probabilities of scat detection success obtained by the FEP using imported fox scats. In a prior mainland study, fox genotypes were recurrently detected in a consecutive four-day pool of scats. In Tasmania, only three contemporaneously collected scat pairs of unknown genotype were detected by the FEP within an area corresponding to a conservatively large mainland fox home range (639 ha) in a decade. Nearest neighbour pairs were widely spaced (mean = 7·0 km; circular area = 153 km2) and generated after a mean of 281 days. The majority of assigned mtDNA positive scats were found in urban and peri-urban environments corresponding to small mainland fox home ranges (30-45 ha) that imply higher scat density and more certain replication. Using the lowest empirically determined scat detection success for dogs, the failure to replicate fox scat detection on 34 of 36 occasions in a large (639 ha) home range is highly improbable (P = 0·00001) and suggestive of Type I error. Synthesis and applications. Type I error, which may have various sources, should be considered when scat mtDNA data are few, accumulated over many years, uncorroborated by observations of extant specimens, inadequately replicated in independent surveys within an expected spatiotemporal scale and reported in geographically isolated environments unlikely to have been colonized.