A procedure for developing risk-based reference doses

Potential impact of pollutant emitted by generator-powered telecommunication masts on air quality of Oja Oba in Akure metropolis

The main aim of this study is to simulate the concentrations of three major air pollutants, namely carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and particulate matter of diameter less or equal to 10 μm (PM₁₀), commonly emitted from base station of telecommunication masts powered by a generator running on diesel and evaluated the simulated pollutants in terms of health risks they pose to people living at close proximity to the telecommunication masts. In this study, we engaged the AERMOD model to simulate the concentrations of pollutants emanating from the use of generators in powering telecommunication base stations around a major busy market place in Akure, Nigeria, a tropical location. The simulation of pollutants was carried out for both dry months (January, February, and March) and wet months (June, July, and August) of 2018. Results showed that CO has the 1-h highest simulated concentration of 1013.4 μg/m³, and it was found during wet seasons, while NOx has 1-h highest concentration of 78.8 μg/m³, and the corresponding value of PM₁₀ was 58.7 μg/m³. While highest concentrations of CO and NOx occurred during the wet season, PM₁₀ highest concentration occurred during the dry season. Measured concentrations of the pollutants also showed similar pattern; however, the measured concentrations are higher than their corresponding simulated values. This difference between measured and simulated is accounted for as background concentration from other sources of pollution. The risks posed to human health by these pollutants were evaluated using hazard quotient (HQ) against some air quality related such as asthma, aggravated asthma, eye irritation, and reproductive and developmental toxicity. CO posed greater human health risks in both wet and dry seasons having HQ greater unity, while PM₁₀ human health risk is noticeable during the dry season. NOx do not pose a human health risk due to very minor content of nitrogen compound emitted by the generators. It is has been demonstrated that the use of a generator to power electrical need of telecommunication base stations has a high impact on air quality within the vicinity of these stations. The hazard could be escalated where many base stations are co-located close public places. Renewable sources of energy could be used in place of generators in the base stations to reduce the impact on air quality and safeguard human health.

Time-dependent behavioral data from zebrafish reveals novel signatures of chemical toxicity using point of departure analysis

High-content imaging of larval zebrafish behavior can be used as a screening approach to rapidly evaluate the relative potential for chemicals to cause toxicity. However, most statistical methods applied to these data transform movement values to incidence-based "hits" and calculate lowest effect levels (LELs), which loses individual fish resolution of behavior and defies hazard ranking due to reliance on applied dose levels. We developed a parallelizable workflow to calculate benchmark dose (BMD) values from dynamic, high-content zebrafish behavior data that scales for high-throughput chemical screening. To capture the zebrafish movement response from light to dark stimulus, we summarized time-dependent data using both area under the curve and the immediate change at the transition point into two novel metrics that characterized abnormal behavior as a function of chemical concentration. The BMD workflow was applied to calculate BMD₁₀ values of 1,060 ToxCast chemicals for 24 zebrafish endpoints, including behavior, mortality and morphology. The BMD₁₀ values provided better precision and separation than LELs for clustering chemicals since they were derived from models that best-fit their concentration-response curves. Analysis of BMD₁₀ values revealed behavioral signatures as the most sensitive endpoints. High concordance in chemical activity was observed between ToxCast in vitro data and zebrafish in vivo behavioral data, however ToxPi analysis indicated that rankings based on in vitro data were not a reliable predictor of in vivo rankings for lower potency chemicals. This analysis method will enable the use of high-content zebrafish behavioral screening data for BMD analysis in toxicological hazard assessment.

Correlation of Noncancer Benchmark Doses in Short- and Long-Term Rodent Bioassays

This study investigated whether, in the absence of chronic noncancer toxicity data, short-term noncancer toxicity data can be used to predict chronic toxicity effect levels by focusing on the dose-response relationship instead of a critical effect. Data from National Toxicology Program (NTP) technical reports have been extracted and modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Benchmark Dose Software. Best-fit, minimum benchmark dose (BMD), and benchmark dose lower limits (BMDLs) have been modeled for all NTP pathologist identified significant nonneoplastic lesions, final mean body weight, and mean organ weight of 41 chemicals tested by NTP between 2000 and 2012. Models were then developed at the chemical level using orthogonal regression techniques to predict chronic (two years) noncancer health effect levels using the results of the short-term (three months) toxicity data. The findings indicate that short-term animal studies may reasonably provide a quantitative estimate of a chronic BMD or BMDL. This can allow for faster development of human health toxicity values for risk assessment for chemicals that lack chronic toxicity data.

Use of a probabilistic PBPK/PD model to calculate Data Derived Extrapolation Factors for chlorpyrifos

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model combined with Monte Carlo analysis of inter-individual variation was used to assess the effects of the insecticide, chlorpyrifos and its active metabolite, chlorpyrifos oxon in humans. The PBPK/PD model has previously been validated and used to describe physiological changes in typical individuals as they grow from birth to adulthood. This model was updated to include physiological and metabolic changes that occur with pregnancy. The model was then used to assess the impact of inter-individual variability in physiology and biochemistry on predictions of internal dose metrics and quantitatively assess the impact of major sources of parameter uncertainty and biological diversity on the pharmacodynamics of red blood cell acetylcholinesterase inhibition. These metrics were determined in potentially sensitive populations of infants, adult women, pregnant women, and a combined population of adult men and women. The parameters primarily responsible for inter-individual variation in RBC acetylcholinesterase inhibition were related to metabolic clearance of CPF and CPF-oxon. Data Derived Extrapolation Factors that address intra-species physiology and biochemistry to replace uncertainty factors with quantitative differences in metrics were developed in these same populations. The DDEFs were less than 4 for all populations. These data and modeling approach will be useful in ongoing and future human health risk assessments for CPF and could be used for other chemicals with potential human exposure.

Linkage Analysis of Urine Arsenic Species Patterns in the Strong Heart Family Study

Arsenic toxicokinetics are important for disease risks in exposed populations, but genetic determinants are not fully understood. We examined urine arsenic species patterns measured by HPLC-ICPMS among 2189 Strong Heart Study participants 18 years of age and older with data on ~400 genome-wide microsatellite markers spaced ~10 cM and arsenic speciation (683 participants from Arizona, 684 from Oklahoma, and 822 from North and South Dakota). We logit-transformed % arsenic species (% inorganic arsenic, %MMA, and %DMA) and also conducted principal component analyses of the logit % arsenic species. We used inverse-normalized residuals from multivariable-adjusted polygenic heritability analysis for multipoint variance components linkage analysis. We also examined the contribution of polymorphisms in the arsenic metabolism gene AS3MT via conditional linkage analysis. We localized a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 10 (LOD 4.12 for %MMA, 4.65 for %DMA, and 4.84 for the first principal component of logit % arsenic species). This peak was partially but not fully explained by measured AS3MT variants. We also localized a QTL for the second principal component of logit % arsenic species on chromosome 5 (LOD 4.21) that was not evident from considering % arsenic species individually. Some other loci were suggestive or significant for 1 geographical area but not overall across all areas, indicating possible locus heterogeneity. This genome-wide linkage scan suggests genetic determinants of arsenic toxicokinetics to be identified by future fine-mapping, and illustrates the utility of principal component analysis as a novel approach that considers % arsenic species jointly.

Inhalation carcinogenicity and toxicity of 1,2-dichloropropane in rats

The toxicity and carcinogenicity of 1,2-dichloropropane (DCP) were examined by inhalation exposure of male and female F344 rats to DCP for either 13 wk or 2 years. In the 13-wk study, the DCP concentrations used were 125, 250, 500, 1000, or 2000 ppm (v/v), and in the 2-year study the DCP concentrations were 80, 200, or 500 ppm (v/v). Thirteen-week exposure to DCP induced hyperplasia in the respiratory epithelium and atrophy of the olfactory epithelium at 125 ppm and above. At the higher levels of exposure, hemolytic anemia and lesions of liver and adrenal gland were observed. Two-year exposure to DCP significantly increased incidences of papilloma in the nasal cavity of male and female rats exposed to 500 ppm DCP. In addition, three cases of esthesioneuroepithelioma were observed in the DCP-exposed male rats. Total nasal tumors increased in a concentration-dependent manner. Hyperplasia of the transitional epithelium and squamous cell hyperplasia, both of which were morphologically different from the hyperplasia of the respiratory epithelium observed in the 13-wk exposure study, occurred in a concentration-dependent manner; these lesions are considered to be preneoplastic lesions. Atrophy of the olfactory epithelium, inflammation of the respiratory epithelium, and squamous cell metaplasia were also seen in the 2-year study. These results demonstrate that DCP is a nasal carcinogen in rats. Lifetime cancer risks for humans exposed to DCP in the ambient air and work environment were quantitatively estimated, using both nonthreshold and threshold approaches, with the data obtained from the 2-year study.

Confidence limits on one-stage model parameters in benchmark risk assessment

In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates and the confidence limits under this setting.

Simultaneous Confidence Bands for Abbott-Adjusted Quantal Response Models

We study use of a Scheffé-style simultaneous confidence band as applied to low-dose risk estimation with quantal response data. We consider two formulations for the dose-response risk function, an Abbott-adjusted Weibull model and an Abbott-adjusted log-logistic model. Using the simultaneous construction, we derive methods for estimating upper confidence limits on predicted extra risk and, by inverting the upper bands on risk, lower bounds on the benchmark dose, or BMD, at which a specific level of 'benchmark risk' is attained. Monte Carlo evaluations explore the operating characteristics of the simultaneous limits.

Daily mercury intake in fish-eating populations in the Brazilian Amazon

Although high levels of fish consumption and bioindicators of mercury exposure have been reported for traditional populations in the Amazon, little is known about their actual daily intake of Hg. Using an ecosystem approach, calculate daily mercury intake in adult fish-eaters, examine the relations between mercury intake and bioindicators of exposure and the factors that influence these relations. A cross-sectional dietary survey on fish and fruit consumption frequency was carried out with 256 persons from six villages of the Tapajós River. Fish portion per meal was determined. Mercury concentration was determined for 1123 local fish specimens. Daily mercury intake (microg/kg/day) was determined for men and women from each village using the average fish-mercury concentration for the fish caught in their fishing zone, the average quantity of fish per meal, fish-species frequency consumption and participants' body weight. Fish-mercury averaged 0.33 microg/g+/-0.33. Daily mercury intake varied between 0 and 11.8 microg/kg/day (mean 0.92 microg/kg/day+/-0.89) and varied by gender and village. Mean blood- and hair-mercury were 58.7+/-36.1 microg/l and 17.9+/-11.5 microg/g, respectively. There was a strong and positive relation between blood-mercury and daily mercury intake, with an inverse relation for fruit intake and schooling; significant variations were observed with immigrant status, and among villages. Hair-mercury was directly associated with daily mercury intake and inversely related to schooling and fruit consumption. Fruit consumption modified the relation between daily mercury intake and blood-mercury levels: for the same daily mercury intake, persons eating more fruit had lower blood-mercury concentrations (ANCOVA Interaction term: F=10.9, P<0.0001). The median difference of the ratio of blood-mercury to daily mercury intake between low and high fruit consumers was 26, representing a 26.3% reduction. These findings reveal high levels of daily mercury intake. Rigorous studies for developing risk-based reference doses in the Amazon should be undertaken to orient viable risk-management strategies to reduce exposure, while maintaining fish diet.

Site-specific applications of probabilistic health risk assessment: review of the literature since 2000

Whether and to what extent contaminated sites harm ecologic and human health are topics of considerable interest, but also considerable uncertainty. Several federal and state agencies have approved the use of some or many aspects of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but its site-specific application has often been limited to high-profile sites and large projects. Nonetheless, times are changing: newly developed software tools, and recent federal and state guidance documents formalizing PRA procedures, now make PRA a readily available method of analysis for even small-scale projects. This article presents and discusses a broad review of PRA literature published since 2000.

SIMULTANEOUS CONFIDENCE BOUNDS FOR LOW-DOSE RISK ASSESSMENT WITH NONQUANTAL DATA

We study the use of simultaneous confidence bounds for making low-dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Confidence limits are constructed for outcomes measured on a continuous scale, assuming a simple linear model for the observed response. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, simultaneous lower limits on the benchmark dose associated with a particular risk are also constructed.

Dose-Incidence Relationships Derived from Superposition of Distributions of Individual Susceptibility on Mechanism-Based Dose Responses for Biological Effects

Dose-response relationships for incidence are based on quantal response measures. A defined effect is either present or not present in an individual. The dose-incidence curve therefore reflects differences in individual susceptibility (the "tolerance distribution"). At low dose, only the more susceptible individuals manifest the effect, while higher doses are required for more resistant individuals to be recruited into the affected fraction of the group. Here, we analyze how such dose-incidence relationships are related to mechanism-based dose-response relationships for biological effects described on a continuous scale. As an example, we use the quantal effect "cell division" triggered by occupancy of growth factor receptors (R) by a hormone or mitogenic ligand (L). The biologically effective dose (BED) is receptor occupancy (RL). The dose-BED relationship is described by the hyperbolic Michaelis-Menten function, RL/Rtot = L / (L + K(D)). For the conversion of the dose-BED relationship to a dose-cell division relationship, the dose-BED curve has to be combined with a function that describes the distribution of susceptibilities among the cells to be triggered into mitosis. We assumed a symmetrical sigmoid curve for this function, approximated by a truncated normal distribution. Because of the supralinear dose-BED relationship due to the asymptotic saturation of the Michaelis-Menten function, the composite curve that describes cell division (incidence) as a function of dose becomes skewed to the right. Logarithmic transformation of the dose axis reverses this skewing and provides a nearly perfect fit to a normal distribution in the central 95% incidence range. This observation may explain why dose-incidence relationships can often be described by a cumulative normal curve using the logarithm of the administered dose. The dominant role of the tolerance distribution for dose-incidence relationships is also illustrated with the example of a linear dose-BED relationship, using adducts to protein or DNA as the BED. Superimposed by a sigmoid distribution of individual susceptibilities, a sigmoid dose-incidence curve results. Linearity is no longer observed. We conclude that differences in susceptibility should always be considered for toxicological risk assessment and extrapolation to low dose.

Benchmark analysis: shopping with proper confidence

We discuss the issue of using benchmark doses for quantifying (excess) risk associated with exposure to environmental hazards. The paradigm of low-dose risk estimation in dose-response modeling is used as the primary application scenario. Emphasis is placed on making simultaneous inferences on benchmark doses when data are in the form of proportions, although the concepts translate easily to other forms of outcome data.

Quantitative estimates of risk for noncancer endpoints

While quantitative estimates of risk have been a standard practice in cancer risk assessment for many years, no similar practice is evident in noncancer risk assessment. We use two recent examples involving methylmercury and arsenic to illustrate the negative impact of this discrepancy on risk communication and cost-benefit analysis. We argue for a more balanced treatment of cancer and noncancer risks and suggest an approach for reaching this goal.

Multiplicity-Adjusted Inferences in Risk Assessment: Benchmark Analysis with Quantal Response Data

A primary objective in quantitative risk or safety assessment is characterization of the severity and likelihood of an adverse effect caused by a chemical toxin or pharmaceutical agent. In many cases data are not available at low doses or low exposures to the agent, and inferences at those doses must be based on the high-dose data. A modern method for making low-dose inferences is known as benchmark analysis, where attention centers on the dose at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved. Both upper confidence limits on the risk and lower confidence limits on the "benchmark dose" are of interest. In practice, a number of possible benchmark risks may be under study; if so, corrections must be applied to adjust the limits for multiplicity. In this short note, we discuss approaches for doing so with quantal response data.

Carcinogenicity categorization of chemicals-new aspects to be considered in a European perspective

Existing systems of classification of carcinogens are a matter of discussion, world-wide. There is agreement that it should be distinguished between genotoxic and non-genotoxic chemicals. The risk assessment approach used for non-genotoxic chemicals is similar among different regulatory bodies: insertion of an uncertainty (safety) factor permits the derivation of permissible exposure levels at which no relevant human cancer risks are anticipated. For genotoxic carcinogens, case studies of chemicals point to a whole array of possibilities. Positive data of chromosomal effects only, in the absence of mutagenicity, may support the characterization of a compound that produces carcinogenic effects only at high, toxic doses. Non-DNA-reactive genotoxins, such as topoisomerase inhibitors or inhibitors of the spindle apparatus are considered in this respect. In such cases, arguments are in favour of the existence of "practical" thresholds. Taking existing concepts together, it is proposed to basically distinguish between "perfect" and "practical" thresholds. There is a wide consensus that for non-DNA-reactive genotoxins such as aneugens (aneuploidy, chromosome loss, non-disjunction) thresholds should be defined. It is being discussed as to whether the identification of possible threshold effects should also include other mechanisms of genotoxicity, in addition to aneugenic effects. Specific mechanisms of clastogenicity have been repeatedly addressed as also having thresholds, such as topoisomerase II poisons or mechanisms based on reactive oxygen. Oxidative stress as an important mechanism is triggered by exposure to exogenous factors such as ultraviolet (UV) and ionizing radiation, anoxia and hyperoxia, and by chemicals producing reactive oxygen species. The idea is receiving increased support that reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated processes of carcinogenesis have practical thresholds. Since reactive oxygen species are genotoxic in principle, questions arise whether chemicals that increase ROS production will superimpose to an endogenously produced background level of DNA lesions, related to mechanisms that may result in non-linear dose-effect relationships. The existence of "endogenous" DNA adducts has been generally accepted, and possible regulatory implications of the presence of endogenous carcinogens have been discussed. It is now becoming evident that a diversity of methods of carcinogenic risk extrapolation to low doses must be considered, dependent on the mode of action. Although there is an increasing international awareness of these developments, the system of classification of carcinogens of the European Union still remains static. This should be changed, as the philosophy of separation of a strictly sequential "hazard assessment" and "risk assessment" appears out-of-date.

Characterization of risk for general population exposure to perfluorooctanoate

Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), an environmentally and metabolically stable perfluorinated carboxylic acid, has been detected in the serum of children, adults and the elderly from the United States with the upper bound of the 95th percentile estimate in the range of 0.011-0.014 microg/mL (ppm). In this risk characterization, margins of exposure (MOE), which can provide a realistic perspective on potential for human risk, were determined by comparison of general population serum PFOA concentrations with serum concentrations from toxicological studies that are associated with the lower 95% confidence limit of a modeled 10 percent response or incidence level (LBMIC(10)) using USEPA BMDS software. The LBMIC(10) was estimated using surrogate data from other studies or pharmacokinetic relationships if serum PFOA data were not available. Modeled dose-responses (with resulting LBMIC(10) values) included post-natal effects in rats (29 microg/mL), liver-weight increase (23 microg/mL), and body-weight change (60 microg/mL) in rats and monkeys, and incidence of Leydig cell adenoma (125 microg/mL) in rats. MOE values based on the upper bound 95th percentile population serum PFOA concentration were large, ranging from 1600 (liver-weight increase) to 8900 (Leydig cell adenoma). These MOE values represent substantial protection of children, adults, and the elderly.

Development of acute exposure guideline levels for airborne exposures to hazardous substances

Hazardous substances can be released into the atmosphere due to industrial and transportation accidents, fires, tornadoes, earthquakes, and terrorists, thereby exposing workers and the nearby public to potential adverse health effects. Various enforceable guidelines have been set by regulatory agencies for worker and ambient air quality. However, these exposure levels generally are not applicable to rare lifetime acute exposures, which possibly could occur at high concentrations. Acute exposure guideline levels (AEGLs) provide estimates of concentrations for airborne exposures for an array of short durations that possibly could cause mild (AEGL-1), severe, irreversible, potentially disabling adverse health effects (AEGL-2), or life threatening effects (AEGL-3). These levels can be useful for emergency responders and planners in reducing or eliminating potential risks to the public. Procedures and methodologies for deriving AEGLs are reviewed in this paper that have been developed in the United States, with direct input from international representatives of OECD member-countries, by the National Advisory Committee for Acute Exposure Guidelines for Hazardous Substances and reviewed by the National Research Council. Techniques are discussed for the extrapolation of effects across different exposure durations. AEGLs provide a viable approach for assisting in the prevention, planning, and response to acute airborne exposures to toxic agents.

Confidence Bands for Low‐Dose Risk Estimation with Quantal Response Data

We study the use of simultaneous confidence bands for low-dose risk estimation with quantal response data, and derive methods for estimating simultaneous upper confidence limits on predicted extra risk under a multistage model. By inverting the upper bands on extra risk, we obtain simultaneous lower bounds on the benchmark dose (BMD). Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the simultaneous limits under this setting, and a suite of actual data sets are used to compare existing methods for placing lower limits on the BMD.

Heterogeneity of toxicant response: sources of human variability

While risk assessment models attempt to predict human risk to toxicant exposure, in many cases these models cannot account for the wide variety of human responses. This review addresses several primary sources of heterogeneity that may affect individual responses to drug or toxicant exposure. Consideration was given to genetic polymorphisms, age-related factors during development and senescence, gender differences associated with hormonal function, and preexisting diseases influenced by toxicant exposure. These selected examples demonstrate the need for additional steps in risk assessment that are needed to more accurately predict human responses to toxicants and drugs.