Microsimulation of Health Expectancies, Life Course Health, and Health Policy Outcomes

Measuring population health using health expectancy estimates from morbidity and mortality databases

The progressive incorporation of quality of life indicators in health planning meets a critical need: The evaluation of the performance of health services, which are under stress by multiple causes, but in particular by an ageing population. In general, national health plans rely on health expectancies obtained using the Sullivan method. The Sullivan health expectancy index combines age-specific mortality rates and age-specific prevalence of healthy life, obtained from health surveys. The objective of this work is to investigate an equivalent estimation, using available information from morbidity and mortality datasets. Mortality and morbidity information, corresponding to years 2016 and 2017, was obtained for the population of the county of Baix Empordà (Catalonia), N = 91,130. Anonymized individual information on diagnoses, procedures and pharmacy consumption contained in the individual clinical record (ICD and ATC codes), were classified into health states. Based on the observed health transitions and mortality, life expectancies by health state were obtained from a multistate microsimulation model. Healthy life expectancies at birth and 65 years for females and males were respectively HLE0female = 39.94, HLE0male = 42.87, HLE65female = 2.43, HLE65male = 2.17. These results differed considerably from the Sullivan equivalents, e.g., 8.25 years less for HLE65female, 9.26 less for HLE65male. Point estimates for global life expectancies at birth and 65 years of age: LE0female = 85.82, LE0male = 80.58, LE65female = 22.31, LE65male = 18.86. Health indicators can be efficiently obtained from multistate models based on mortality and morbidity information, without the use of health surveys. This alternative method could be used for monitoring populations in the context of health planning. Life Expectancy results were consistent with the standard government reports. Due to the different approximation to the concept of health (data-based versus self-perception), healthy life expectancies obtained from multistate micro simulation are consistently lower than those calculated with the standard Sullivan method.

Disability in Childhood, Special Education Histories, and Lifetime Health Outcomes in the United States

Objectives: We evaluated special education as an indicator of childhood disability and used that indicator to estimate lifetime dependency and life expectancy. Methods: Data: Panel Study of Income Dynamics and Health and Retirement Study (n = 20,563). Dependency: Nursing home care or equivalent. Analysis: We first analyzed special education as an indicator of childhood disability; multinomial logistic Markov models and microsimulation then compared populations with and without childhood disability. Results: Special education history was a valid indicator of childhood disability. For example, with parents who did not complete high school, 3.8% with no special education history were dependent at least 5 years of adult life; that result with special education was 15.2%. Life expectancy from age 20 was 58.3 years without special education, 46.0 years with special education (both p < .05). Discussion: Special education history can indicate childhood disability. People with that history had significantly a more dependency than others and significantly shorter lives.