Research and Development Priorities in the Face of Climate Change and Rapidly Evolving Pests

Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest-predator system

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the "niche conservatism" assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of "evolutionary rescue" and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate change, whereas ladybirds demonstrate geographic variation in their evolutionary rescue potential. Specifically, ladybirds in southern regions are more likely to be rescued than those in the north. In certain northern regions, ladybirds do not avoid extinction due to severe warming trends and seasonality of the climate. While higher warming trends do prompt stronger evolutionary changes in phenotype, they also lead to reduced aphid population abundance such that ecology constrains ladybird population growth. Higher seasonality induces an ecological effect by limiting the length of reproductive season, thereby reducing the capacity for evolutionary rescue. Together, these findings reveal the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the context of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.

Climate change impacts on insect pests for high value specialty crops in California

California is a global leader in production and supply of walnuts and almonds, and the state is the largest producer of peaches in the U.S. These crops have an important contribution to the California's agricultural economy. Damages to these crops from lepidopteran pests, mainly from Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) (family: Tortricidae), Peach twig borer (Anarsia lineatella) (family: Gelechiidae) and Oriental fruit moth (Grapholita molesta) (family: Tortricidae), are still high, despite the improvement in pest management activities. Given that temperature increase can directly impact the rate of growth and development of these pests, it is important to understand to what extent dynamics of these pests will change in future in California. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the biofix, lifecycle length, and number of generations for these pests for the entire Central Valley of California. Using a well-established growing-degree days (GDD) model calibrated and validated using observations from orchards of California, and climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) General Circulation Models, we found that biofix dates of these pests are expected to shift earlier by up to 28 days, and length of generations is expected to be shortened by up to 19 days, and up to 1.4 extra generations of these pests can be added by the end of the century depending on the scenario. Results from this work would enable industries to prioritize development of practices that are more effective in the long run, such as developing better cultural and biological pest solutions and insect tolerant varieties. Growers and researchers can take proactive actions to minimize future risks associated with these damaging pests. This work can be scalable to other pests and regions to understand regional dynamics of damaging agricultural pests under climate change.

Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change

Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive.

Trichoderma versus Fusarium-Inhibition of Pathogen Growth and Mycotoxin Biosynthesis

This study evaluated the ability of selected strains of Trichoderma viride, T. viridescens, and T. atroviride to inhibit mycelium growth and the biosynthesis of mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON), nivalenol (NIV), zearalenone (ZEN), α-(α-ZOL) and β-zearalenol (β-ZOL) by selected strains of Fusarium culmorum and F. cerealis. For this purpose, an in vitro experiment was carried out on solid substrates (PDA and rice). After 5 days of co-culture, it was found that all Trichoderma strains used in the experiment significantly inhibited the growth of Fusarium mycelium. Qualitative assessment of pathogen-antagonist interactions showed that Trichoderma colonized 75% to 100% of the medium surface (depending on the species and strain of the antagonist and the pathogen) and was also able to grow over the mycelium of the pathogen and sporulate. The rate of inhibition of Fusarium mycelium growth by Trichoderma ranged from approximately 24% to 66%. When Fusarium and Trichoderma were co-cultured on rice, Trichoderma strains were found to inhibit DON biosynthesis by about 73% to 98%, NIV by about 87% to 100%, and ZEN by about 12% to 100%, depending on the pathogen and antagonist strain. A glycosylated form of DON was detected in the co-culture of F. culmorum and Trichoderma, whereas it was absent in cultures of the pathogen alone, thus suggesting that Trichoderma is able to glycosylate DON. The results also suggest that a strain of T. viride is able to convert ZEN into its hydroxylated derivative, β-ZOL.

Using crop diversity to lower pesticide use: Socio-ecological approaches

The farming practices adopted since the end of the Second World War, based on large areas of monocultures and chemical use, have adversely affected the health of farmers and consumers and dramatically reduced farmland biodiversity. As a consequence, many studies over more than twenty years have stated that agriculture is facing three main challenges: (1) feeding the growing world population (2) with more environmentally friendly products (3) at a reasonable return for the producer. Increasing the efficacy of biocontrol could be one lever for agriculture to meet these expectations. In this study we propose implementation of a relatively under-researched system based on the management of landscape level crop diversity that would reduce demand for pesticide use and increase conservation biocontrol. The principle of manipulating crop diversity over space and time at a landscape scale is to optimize resource continuity, such as food and shelter for natural enemies to increase biocontrol services, reduce pest outbreaks and crop losses. The feasibility of such management options is discussed in relation to environmental, social and economic aspects. The operational and institutional inputs and conditions needed to make the system work are explored, as well as the potential added values of such a system for different stakeholders.

Agriculture sows pests: how crop domestication, host shifts, and agricultural intensification can create insect pests from herbivores

We argue that agriculture as practiced creates pests. We use three examples (Corn leafhopper, Dalbulus maidis; Western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera; Cotton fleahopper, Pseudatomoscelis seriatus) to illustrate: firstly, how since its origins, agriculture has proven conducive to transforming selected herbivores into pests, particularly through crop domestication and spread, and agricultural intensification, and; secondly, that the herbivores that became pests were among those hosted by crop wild relatives or associates, and were pre-adapted either as whole species or component subpopulations. Two of our examples, Corn leafhopper and Western corn rootworm, illustrate how following a host shift to a domesticated host, emergent pests 'hopped' onto crops and rode expansion waves to spread far beyond the geographic ranges of their wild hosts. Western corn rootworm exemplifies how an herbivore-tolerant crop was left vulnerable when it was bred for yield and protected with insecticides. Cotton fleahopper illustrates how removing preferred wild host plants from landscapes and replacing them with crops, allows herbivores with flexible host preferences to reach pest-level populations. We conclude by arguing that in the new geological epoch we face, the Anthropocene, we can improve agriculture by looking to our past to identify and avoid missteps of early and recent farmers.

Tree spacing impacts the individual incidence of Moniliophthora roreri disease in cacao agroforests

BACKGROUND

Using conventional pesticides in crop protection has raised serious environmental concerns and there is therefore a need for integrated pest management (IPM) methods. In this paper, we found that the spacing of trees can impact disease, which could result in a reduction in pesticide applications and may act as a potential IPM method. We studied Frosty Pod Rot (FPR) in 20 cacao agroforests in Costa Rica (Upala region).

RESULTS

Using a generalized linear mixed model, we analyzed the impact of the neighborhood composition and distance from a studied cacao individual on its individual FPR incidence. We found that the number of cacao tree neighbors in a radius of 3.7 m and the number of fruit trees in a radius of 4.3 m had a significant negative influence on the incidence of FPR on individual cacao trees. Moreover, cacao tree neighbors had the most significant local influence compared to the neighborhood of other taller categories such as fruit or forest trees.

CONCLUSION

The mechanisms involved are related to the barrier effect, due to the effectiveness of the cacao tree's architecture as an efficient barrier against FPR spore dispersal. This paper provides new insights into optimization of the spatial environment around each host as an original IPM method. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.