Climate change: the evidence and our options

Attention-Based Models for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Multi-step Solar Irradiation Prediction

Bangladesh's subtropical climate with an abundance of sunlight throughout the greater portion of the year results in increased effectiveness of solar panels. Solar irradiance forecasting is an essential aspect of grid-connected photovoltaic systems to efficiently manage solar power's variation and uncertainty and to assist in balancing power supply and demand. This is why it is essential to forecast solar irradiation accurately. Many meteorological factors influence solar irradiation, which has a high degree of fluctuation and uncertainty. Predicting solar irradiance multiple steps ahead makes it difficult for forecasting models to capture long-term sequential relationships. Attention-based models are widely used in the field of Natural Language Processing for their ability to learn long-term dependencies within sequential data. In this paper, our aim is to present an attention-based model framework for multivariate time series forecasting. Using data from two different locations in Bangladesh with a resolution of 30 min, the Attention-based encoder-decoder, Transformer, and Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) models are trained and tested to predict over 24 steps ahead and compared with other forecasting models. According to our findings, adding the attention mechanism significantly increased prediction accuracy and TFT has shown to be more precise than the rest of the algorithms in terms of accuracy and robustness. The obtained mean square error (MSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2) values for TFT are 0.151, 0.212, and 0.815, respectively. In comparison to the benchmark and sequential models (including the Naive, MLP, and Encoder-Decoder models), TFT has a reduction in the MSE and MAE of 8.4-47.9% and 6.1-22.3%, respectively, while R2 is raised by 2.13-26.16%. The ability to incorporate long-distance dependency increases the predictive power of attention models.

Reproductive phenologies of phyllostomid bat populations and ensembles from lowland Amazonia

Natural selection should favor individuals that synchronize energy-demanding aspects of reproductive activity with periods of high resource abundance and predictability, leading to seasonal patterns of reproduction at the population level. Nonetheless, few studies-especially those on bats in the Neotropics-have used rigorous quantitative criteria to distinguish among phenological patterns for different populations from the same habitat or for the same species in different habitats. To explore such issues, we quantified annual patterns of reproduction in male and in female bats from lowland Amazonia (environs of Iquitos, Peru), and did so at the level of populations and ensembles. Five species exhibited unimodal patterns including Artibeus obscurus, A. planirostris, Carollia benkeithi, Phyllostomus hastatus, and Rhinophylla pumilio. Two species (A. lituratus and Glossophaga soricina) evinced bimodal patterns with reproductive peaks separated by patterns of inactivity, whereas four species (C. brevicauda, C. perspicillata, Sturnira lilium, and S. tildae) evinced a bimodal pattern in which peaks in activity occur in tandem, with the first peak generally markedly higher than the second peak. Frugivore, gleaning animalivore, and nectarivore ensembles exhibited bimodal, unimodal, and bimodal reproductive phenologies, respectively. Nonetheless, interannual variation in phenology (i.e., the monthly timing of peaks within a season rather than the number of peaks per year) characterized four (A. obscurus, C. brevicauda, C. perspicillata, and S. lilium) of the eight species and each of the three ensembles (frugivores, gleaning animalivores, and nectarivores) with adequate sampling. Regardless of interspecific variation in strategies, the phenology of reproduction enhances the likelihood that parturition and recruitment of young into the population occurs during the wet season, the period of likely highest resource abundance. Based on a comparison of our results with those from other well-studied bat populations, four species did not exhibit geographic variation in reproductive phenologies (A. obscurus, G. soricina, C. brevicauda, and R. pumilio), whereas three species evinced such geographic variation (A. lituratus, A. planirostris, and C. perspicillata). Climate change will likely alter the seasons and extents of propitious times for reproductive activities, as well as the reliability of proximate cues for initiating reproduction, compromising current reproductive strategies and leading to altered phenological patterns of reproduction or reproductive success, possibly resulting in local extinction of some species.

Guanosine-derived atomically dispersed Cu-N3-C sites for efficient electroreduction of carbon dioxide

Single-atom copper (Cu) embedded within carbon catalysts have demonstrated significant potential in the electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into valuable chemicals and fuels. Herein, we develop a straightforward and template-free strategy for synthesizing atomically dispersed CuNC catalysts (CuG) by annealing the self-assembled guanosine. The CuG catalysts display two-dimensional morphology, tunable pore size and large surface areas that can be adjusted by changing carbonization temperature. Spherical aberration-corrected transmission electron microscopy reveals that single-atom Cu are homogeneously dispersed on the surface of carbon nanosheets. The optimum CuG-1000 catalysts achieve a high CO Faradaic efficiency (FE_co) up to 99% and a high CO current density of 6.53 mA cm^-2 (-0.65 V vs. RHE). Besides, the flow cell test of CuG-1000 shows a high current density up to 25.2 mA cm^-2 and the FE_co still exceeded 91% after more than 20 h of testing. Specifically, the existence of Cu-N₃-C active sites was proved by extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS). Density functional theory evidences that tricoordinated copper with N can largely regulate the adsorption and desorption of key intermediates by transferring electrons to *COOH through Cu atoms, thereby improving selectivity toward CO. This work demonstrates the active origin of CuNC catalysts in CO₂ electroreduction and offers a blueprint to construct atomically dispersed transition site catalysts by supramolecular self-assembly strategy.

Teaching, Learning, and Climate Change: Anticipated Impacts and Mitigation Strategies for Educators

The impacts of climate change present numerous risks to the present and future state of teaching and learning. Natural disasters such as hurricanes, heat waves, flooding, blizzards, wildfires, sea level rise, and droughts threaten our ability to produce the learning outcomes promised to our pupils. Taking action to adapt to imminent climate-related challenges and mitigating measures that provoke and prolong ecological challenges is critical to the survival of these cultural institutions. Paradoxically, centers of teaching and learning can be seen as both victims of climate change as well as an instrumental part of the solution. Providing an efficient and effective education to the world's youth is a catalyst for the innovations that future generations of skilled professionals will use to combat climate change. Educational settings are also crucial venues for raising social awareness about anthropogenic climate change to undermine the complacency and denialism that have stagnated the global response to this crisis thus far. This paper incorporates suggestions from climate scientists and learning scientists about how to change how we teach, where we teach, and what we teach to ensure teaching enterprises survive and thrive in the face of a changing climate.

Study of the Synthetic Approach Influence in Ni/CeO2-Based Catalysts for Methane Dry Reforming

This study focuses on the synthetic approach influence in morphostructural features and catalytic performances for Ni/CeO2 catalysts. Incipient wetness impregnation, coprecipitation and nitrate combustion were studied as catalyst preparation approaches, and the materials were then tested at 700 °C for methane dry reforming (MDR). The morphostructural properties of the materials were deeply studied using several techniques, such as temperature programmed reduction (TPR), to investigate reducibility and support-metal interaction, N2 physisorption to evaluate the porosity and the surface area, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) to estimate Ni dispersion, and temperature programmed oxidation (TPO) to identify the type and amount of coke formed on catalysts’ surface after reaction. From the data obtained, coprecipitation turned out to be the most suitable technique for this application because this catalyst was able to reach 70% of CO2 conversion and 30% methane conversion, with an H2 yield of 15% and 30% yield of CO at the end of the 30 h test. Moreover, it was also the catalyst with the highest metal dispersion, the strongest interaction with the support, and the lowest coke deposition.

Rule-Governed Behavior and Climate Change: Why Climate Warnings Fail to Motivate Sufficient Action

Climate scientists warn of dire consequences for ecological systems and human well-being if significant steps to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken immediately. Despite these warnings, greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, indicating that current responses are inadequate. Climate warnings and reactions to them may be analyzed in terms of rules and rule-governed behavior. The literature on rule-governed behavior in behavior analysis has identified a variety of factors that can reduce rule following, including insufficient rule exposure, insufficient learning history and rule complexity, incomplete rules, instructed behavior not sufficiently learned, rules having weak function-altering effects, conflicting rules, lack of speaker credibility, rule plausibility and inconsistency with prior learning, and insufficient reinforcement for rule following. The present paper aims to analyze how these factors might impact responses to climate change, and possible solutions and strategies are discussed. Much of the theory and research on climate-change communication has come from outside of behavior analysis. Thus, the paper also aims to integrate findings from this literature with a behavior-analytic approach to rule control. Interpreting climate warnings and climate solutions in terms of rule-governed behavior may improve our understanding of why such rules are not more effective, and aid in the development of verbal and nonverbal strategies for changing behavior and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Heat Stress Tolerance: A Prerequisite for the Selection of Drought- and Low Phosphorus-Tolerant Common Beans for Equatorial Tropical Regions Such as Ghana

Forty common bean accessions of multiple genetic background trait attribution regarding drought tolerance were selected based on mean yield performance from an earlier field test evaluation conducted using augmented RCBD. The various bean genotypes were further evaluated with phosphorus and water treatment interactions at two different levels for each factor. The experiment was conducted in a 2 × 2 × 40 factorial using RCBD with three replications under screen-house conditions at the CSIR-Crops Research Institute, Kumasi-Ghana. The objective was to select drought- and low phosphorus-tolerant common bean genotypes; which are suitable for tropical climatic conditions. The results showed that common bean with drought and heat trait tolerance survived, developed flowers and podded with seeds to physiological maturity, whilst genotypes with no heat trait tolerance had impaired reproductive structural development and growth disruption; thus, flowers could not develop into pods with seeds. This reproductive developmental anomaly was due to prevailing average daytime and nighttime high temperatures of 35.45 °C and 29.95 °C, respectively, recorded during the growth period, which reduced pollen fertility. Among the 478 experimental bean plants (two plants were missing) analyzed, 141 (29.5%) did not flower, 168 (35.18%) had their pods dropped whilst 99 (20.7%) podded with seeds to achieve physiological maturity. The podded-seed bean genotypes were of the SEF-line pedigrees, which were shown to be heat and drought-tolerant. Meanwhile, bean accessions with SMC, SMN and SMR code prefixes did not pod into seed despite possessing drought-tolerant traits. The effects of interactions between phosphorus and water treatments on the root characteristics of drought-tolerant common bean were as follows: root length, root surface area, average root diameter and root volume growth extensions doubled dimensionally under optimum conditions (P₂W₂) compared to stressed conditions (P₁W₁). The results from the present study identified four SEF-bean genotypes, namely, SEF15, SEF 47, SEF 60 and SEF 62, as superior yield performers, even under low soil phosphorus and in extreme high temperature conditions. Therefore, breeding for the selection of drought- and low-P-tolerant common bean for tropical agro-ecological environments must also consider concomitant heat stress tolerance.

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

Climatic variability has been acquiring an extensive consideration due to its widespread ability to impact food production and livelihoods. Climate change has the potential to intersperse global approaches in alleviating hunger and undernutrition. It is hypothesized that climate shifts bring substantial negative impacts on food production systems, thereby intimidating food security. Vast developments have been made addressing the global climate change, undernourishment, and hunger for the last few decades, partly due to the increase in food productivity through augmented agricultural managements. However, the growing population has increased the demand for food, putting pressure on food systems. Moreover, the potential climate change impacts are still unclear more obviously at the regional scales. Climate change is expected to boost food insecurity challenges in areas already vulnerable to climate change. Human-induced climate change is expected to impact food quality, quantity, and potentiality to dispense it equitably. Global capabilities to ascertain the food security and nutritional reasonableness facing expeditious shifts in biophysical conditions are likely to be the main factors determining the level of global disease incidence. It can be apprehended that all food security components (mainly food access and utilization) likely be under indirect effect via pledged impacts on ménage, incomes, and damages to health. The corroboration supports the dire need for huge focused investments in mitigation and adaptation measures to have sustainable, climate-smart, eco-friendly, and climate stress resilient food production systems. In this paper, we discussed the foremost pathways of how climate change impacts our food production systems as well as the social, and economic factors that in the mastery of unbiased food distribution. Likewise, we analyze the research gaps and biases about climate change and food security. Climate change is often responsible for food insecurity issues, not focusing on the fact that food production systems have magnified the climate change process. Provided the critical threats to food security, the focus needs to be shifted to an implementation oriented-agenda to potentially cope with current challenges. Therefore, this review seeks to have a more unprejudiced view and thus interpret the fusion association between climate change and food security by imperatively scrutinizing all factors.

From Visual Grading and Dynamic Modulus of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Logs to Tensile Strength of Boards

The aim of the present paper is to assess the non-destructive indicating properties of Slovenian beech (Fagus sylvatica) logs and correlate them with the mechanical properties of the final product, which is boards. Beech logs were visually graded according to the standard procedure and vibrational frequencies were measured. Logs were further on sawn into boards which were also non-destructively tested in wet and dry conditions. Finally, the boards were experimentally tested in tension. Special focus was directed towards visual parameters of the beech logs and their influence on the overall quality of the output material. The longitudinal natural frequencies of the logs were studied as potential indicating properties. The results showed that a majority of the visual log grading parameters do not result in good quality timber in terms of strength and stiffness properties, and only few are decisive for the final classification. The coefficient of determination of the static MOE vs. dynamic MOE of logs was r2=0.13, whereas vs. the MOE of wet boards was r2=0.49. Using a few visual characteristics in combination with dynamic measurements of logs and of wet boards could help to increase the yield of high quality beech wood.

Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using a Data-Driven Algorithm and Contextual Optimisation

Solar forecasting plays a key part in the renewable energy transition. Major challenges, related to load balancing and grid stability, emerge when a high percentage of energy is provided by renewables. These can be tackled by new energy management strategies guided by power forecasts. This paper presents a data-driven and contextual optimisation forecasting (DCF) algorithm for solar irradiance that was comprehensively validated using short- and long-term predictions, in three US cities: Denver, Boston, and Seattle. Moreover, step-by-step implementation guidelines to follow and reproduce the results were proposed. Initially, a comparative study of two machine learning (ML) algorithms, the support vector machine (SVM) and Facebook Prophet (FBP) for solar prediction was conducted. The short-term SVM outperformed the FBP model for the 1- and 2- hour prediction, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 91.2% in Boston. However, FBP displayed sustained performance for increasing the forecast horizon and yielded better results for 3-hour and long-term forecasts. The algorithms were optimised by further contextual model adjustments which resulted in substantially improved performance. Thus, DCF utilised SVM for short-term and FBP for long-term predictions and optimised their performance using contextual information. DCF achieved consistent performance for the three cities and for long- and short-term predictions, with an average R2 of 85%.

Biomass Functions and Carbon Content Variabilities of Natural and Planted Pinus koraiensis in Northeast China

The population of natural Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) in northeast China has sharply declined due to massive utilization for its high-quality timber, while this is vice versa for Korean pine plantations after various intensive afforestation schemes applied by China’s central authority. Hence, more comprehensive models are needed to appropriately understand the allometric relationship variations between the two origins. In this study, we destructively sampled Pinus koraiensis from several natural and plantation sites in northeast China to investigate the origin’s effect on biomass equations. Nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression with weighted functions was used to present the additivity property and homogenize the model residuals in our two newly developed origin-free (population average) and origin-based (dummy variable) biomass functions. Variations in biomass allocations, carbon content, and root-to-shoot ratio between the samples obtained from plantations and natural stands were also investigated. The results showed that (1) involving the origin’s effect in dummy variable models brought significant improvement in model performances compared to the population average models; (2) incorporating tree total height (H) as an additional predictor to diameter at breast height (D) consistently increase the models’ accuracy compared to using D only as of the sole predictors for both model systems; (3) stems accounted for the highest partitioning proportions and foliage had the highest carbon content among all biomass components; (4) the root-to-shoot ratio ranged from 0.18–0.35, with plantations (0.28 ± 0.04) had slightly higher average value (±SD) compared to natural forests (0.25 ± 0.03). Our origin-based models can deliver more accurate individual tree biomass estimations for Pinus koraiensis, particularly for the National Forest Inventory of China.

On Tanzania’s Precipitation Climatology, Variability, and Future Projection

We investigate historical and projected precipitation in Tanzania using observational and climate model data. Precipitation in Tanzania is highly variable in both space and time due to topographical variations, coastal influences, and the presence of lakes. Annual and seasonal precipitation trend analyses from 1961 to 2016 show maximum rainfall decline in Tanzania during the long rainy season in the fall (March–May), and an increasing precipitation trend in northwestern Tanzania during the short rainy season in the spring (September–November). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to Tanzania’s precipitation patterns shows a stronger correlation with warmer temperatures in the western Indian Ocean than with the eastern-central Pacific Ocean. Years with decreasing precipitation in Tanzania appear to correspond with increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have a greater effect on rainfall variability in Tanzania than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) does. Overall, the climate model ensemble projects increasing precipitation trend in Tanzania that is opposite with the historical decrease in precipitation. This observed drying trend also contradicts a slightly increasing precipitation trend from climate models for the same historical time period, reflecting challenges faced by modern climate models in representing Tanzania’s precipitation.

Seasonal muscle ultrastructure plasticity and resistance of muscle structural changes during temperature increases in resident black-capped chickadees and rock pigeons

Resident birds in temperate zones respond to seasonally fluctuating temperatures by adjusting their physiology, such as changes in basal metabolic rate or peak metabolic rate during cold exposure, or altering their organ sizes, so as to match the thermogenic requirements of their current environment. Climate change is predicted to cause increases in the frequency of heat and cold wave events, which could increase the likelihood that birds will face an environmental mismatch. Here, we examined seasonality and the effects of acute and chronic heat shock to 33°C and subsequent recovery from heat shock on the ultrastructure of the superficial pectoralis muscle fiber diameter, myonuclear domain (MND) and capillary density in two temperate bird species of differing body mass, the black-capped chickadee (Poecile atricapillus) and the rock pigeon (Columba livia). We found that muscle fiber ultrastructure did not change with heat treatment. However, in black-capped chickadees, there was a significant increase in fiber diameter in spring phenotype birds compared with summer phenotype birds. In rock pigeons, we saw no differences in fiber diameter across seasons. Capillary density did not change as a function of fiber diameter in black-capped chickadees, but did change seasonally, as did MND. Across seasons, as fiber diameter decreased, capillary density increased in the pectoralis muscle of rock pigeons. For both species in this study, we found that as fiber diameter increased, so did MND. Our findings imply that these two temperate birds employ different muscular growth strategies that may be metabolically beneficial to each.

Projected Changes in Maternal Heat Exposure During Early Pregnancy and the Associated Congenital Heart Defect Burden in the United States

Background More intense and longer-lasting heat events are expected in the United States as a consequence of climate change. This study aimed to project the potential changes in maternal heat exposure during early pregnancy (3-8 weeks post conception) and the associated burden of congenital heart defects ( CHD s) in the future. Methods and Results This study expanded on a prior nationwide case-control study that evaluated the association between CHD s and maternal heat exposure during early pregnancy in summer and spring. We defined multiple indicators of heat exposure, and applied published odds ratios obtained for the matching season of the baseline (1995-2005) into the projection period (2025-2035) to estimate potential changes in CHD burden throughout the United States. Increases in maternal heat exposure were projected across the United States and to be larger in the summer. The Midwest will potentially have the highest increase in summer maternal exposure to excessively hot days (3.42; 95% CI, 2.99-3.88 per pregnancy), heat event frequency (0.52; 95% CI, 0.44-0.60) and heat event duration (1.73; 95% CI, 1.49-1.97). We also found large increases in specific CHD subtypes during spring, including a 34.0% (95% CI, 4.9%-70.8%) increase in conotruncal CHD in the South and a 38.6% (95% CI , 9.9%-75.1%) increase in atrial septal defect in the Northeast. Conclusions Projected increases in maternal heat exposure could result in an increased CHD burden in certain seasons and regions of the United States.

Environmental effects on collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu) serum testosterone, testicular morphology, and semen quality in the Caatinga biome

The objective of the study was to understand the influence of climatic variations in a semiarid environment on serum testosterone, testicular morphology and semen quality in collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu). Reproductive metrics (semen quality, testicular morphometry and testosterone serum profiles) of 10 mature males were measured monthly for 18 months. Meteorological data (rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and radiant heat load) also were recorded during the same period. Rainfall regimes were classified in different classes (Class 1: months with no rain; Class 2: months with up to 50 mm of rain; and Class 3: months with >50 mm of rain). Among rainfall classes, average air temperature (°C) and relative humidity (%) were different. Climatic changes between rainfall classes did not lead to overall variations of testicular size, testosterone production, and semen metrics. However, relative humidity recorded before semen collection (one day, one week, or over 51-55 days) was positively correlated (P < 0.05) with semen motility metrics (total motility, beat cross frequency and straightness) and sperm subpopulations (medium and static sperm), as well as with volume. Negative correlations (P < 0.05) were revealed between air temperature and the same semen motility patterns and volume. Additionally, radiant head load measured on the day of semen collection negatively influenced (P < 0.05) sperm straightness. This study demonstrates for the first time that no seasonal changes could be detected overt the 18-month period on the serum testosterone, testicular morphology and semen quality of collared peccaries raised in the Caatinga biome; however, it is expected that long term environmental changes will influence the reproductive physiology of species leaving in that habitat.

Resistance of a terrestrial plant community to local microhabitat changes

The number of plant and animal species that exist today is estimated to be around 8.7 million. Approximately 300,000 of these species are flora. This extremely high species diversity has been puzzling scientist since the beginning of ecological research because most of these species compete for limited resources that should lead to the exclusion of all but few superior species. This can be seen in a number of coexistence model today that can only maintain at most four species at a time. We have shown recently that by incorporating minute differences in microhabitat to a lattice competition model, about 13 species can coexist from an initial number of 20. Here, we improve the model further by considering that microhabitat differences are not fixed but can change over time which can affect coexistence. A primary driver to this alteration is climate change, both natural and human induced. To show the resistance of a lattice plant community model, a dynamic microhabitat locality is incorporated by changing the spatial and species-specific heterogeneity of each lattice site. We show that even if the microhabitat locality of each plant species is dynamic, diversity can still be maintained in a lattice plant ecosystem model. This shows that natural communities of terrestrial plants can be resistant to the stress of microhabitat locality changes to a certain extent.

Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect

We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID) meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus) to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity), tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades) and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates). The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current) human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general.

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Human development affects the environment and the climate.

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Environmental and climate changes impacts on biodiversity.

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Environmental and climate changes alter tick population dynamics.

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Biodiversity loss affects tick-borne pathogen transmission.

Acting in Light of the Future: How Do Future-Oriented Cultural Practices Evolve and How Can We Accelerate Their Evolution?

Despite extensive knowledge of how to prevent or ameliorate serious diseases, natural disasters, environmental degradation, and a wide range of other problems, we often fail to take action that that would prevent or mitigate these problematic outcomes. In short, although we may have sound scientific knowledge about threats to future wellbeing, we appear to have limited insight into how to benefit from this knowledge. With this paper, we argue that our current scientific understanding of how to act in light of the future is limited, but we offer a theoretical analysis of future-oriented behavior at both individual and organizational levels. Specifically, the paper draws on a functional contextualist account of human language and cognition, Relational Frame Theory (RFT), and its integrated therapeutic approach, Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT), and extends this framework to analyzing the evolution of the practices of groups and organizations. This framework can provide an understanding of how human behavior may be modified in the present to serve improving human wellbeing in the future at individual, organizational, and even national levels.

Status of breeding seabirds on the Northern Islands of the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia

We undertook breeding surveys between 2010 and 2011 to assess the status of breeding birds on 16 islands in the northern Saudi Arabia. Sixteen bird species were found breeding at three different seasons; i.e. winter (Osprey), spring (Caspian and Saunder's Terns), and summer (Lesser Crested, White-cheeked, Bridled Terns). It is postulated that food availability is an important factor influencing the breeding of seabirds in the northern Saudi Arabian Red Sea. Several species laid eggs earlier in northern parts of the Red Sea than in southern parts. The predicted increases in temperatures (Ta ) could have a negative effect on species survival in the future, especially on those whose nests that are in the open. Finally, disturbance, predation and egg collection were probably the main immediate threats affecting the breeding seabird species in the northern Red Sea.

Gamification: The Intersection between Behavior Analysis and Game Design Technologies

Deterding et al. (Proceedings of the 15th International Academic MindTrek Conference: Envisioning Future Media Environments, USA 15: 9-15, 2011) report a recent rise in popularity of video game inspired software designed to address issues in a variety of areas, including health, energy conservation, education, and business. These applications have been based on the concept of gamification, which involves a process by which nongame activities are designed to be more like a game. We provide examples of how gamification has been used to increase health-related behavior, energy consumption, academic performance, and other socially-significant behavior. We argue that behavior analytic research and practice stands to benefit from incorporating successful elements of game design. Lastly, we provide suggestions for behavior analysts regarding applied and basic research related to gamification.

A reflection on moral distress in nursing together with a current application of the concept

The concept of moral distress can be extended from clinical settings to larger environmental concerns affecting health care. Moral distress-a common experience in complex societies-arises when individuals have clear moral judgments about societal practices, but have difficulty in finding a venue in which to express concerns. Since health care is large in scale and climate change is proving to be a major environmental problem, scaling down health care is inevitably a necessary element for mitigating climate change. Because it is extremely challenging to discuss these concerns in health care settings, those concerned about climate change and health care experience distress. This article outlines some philosophical concepts and perspectives that may be useful in mitigating this distress.

Climate change and cutaneous water loss of birds

There is a crucial need to understand how physiological systems of animals will respond to increases in global air temperature. Water conservation may become more important for some species of birds, especially those living in deserts. Lipids of the stratum corneum (SC), the outer layer of the epidermis, create the barrier to water vapor diffusion, and thus control cutaneous water loss (CWL). An appreciation of the ability of birds to change CWL by altering lipids of the skin will be important to predict responses of birds to global warming. The interactions of these lipids are fundamental to the modulation of water loss through skin. Cerebrosides, with their hexose sugar moiety, are a key component of the SC in birds, but how these lipids interact with other lipids of the SC, or how they form hydrogen bonds with water molecules, to form a barrier to water vapor diffusion remains unknown. An understanding of how cerebrosides interact with other lipids of the SC, and of how the hydroxyl groups of cerebrosides interact with water molecules, may be a key to elucidating the control of CWL by the SC.

The personal life of the behavior analyst

The human species faces crises of critical proportions. Excessive population, global warming, and the anticipated descent from peak fossil-fuel extraction promise to change our future in far-reaching ways. Operant conditioning prepares the individual for a world similar to the selecting past, but our world is changing more rapidly than our adaptation. As individuals, we cannot make substantial changes in the world at large because we do not control enough reinforcers, but we can turn to the sources of our personal behavior and manipulate them. We will need help. Better organized social networks and the self-management techniques they support can promote immediate changes in consumption at home, work, and moving about in our personal worlds. Surprisingly, consuming less can lead to more satisfying and happier lives, but a better understanding of reinforcement contingencies is necessary. We can recover the strengthening effects of personal daily accomplishments that are eroded when conditioned generalized reinforcers intervene. When we get our own personal lives in order we can reduce our carbon footprints, restore the connections between our behavior and its strengthening effects, and become models worthy of imitation.

Climate change and animals in Saudi Arabia

Global warming is occurring at an alarming rate and predictions are that air temperature (T a) will continue to increase during this century. Increases in T a as a result of unabated production of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere pose a threat to the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations worldwide. Although all the animals worldwide will likely be affected by global warming, diurnal animals in the deserts will be particularly threatened in the future because T as are already high, and animals have limited access to water. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will experience a 3-5 °C in T a over the next century. For predicting the consequences of global warming for animals, it is important to understand how individual species will respond to higher air temperatures. We think that populations will not have sufficient time to make evolutionary adjustments to higher T a, and therefore they will be forced to alter their distribution patterns, or make phenotypic adjustments in their ability to cope with high T a. This report examines how increases in T a might affect body temperature (T b) in the animals of arid regions. We chose three taxonomic groups, mammals, birds, and reptiles (Arabian oryx, Arabian spiny-tailed lizard, vultures, and hoopoe larks) from Saudi Arabia, an area in which T a often reaches 45 °C during midday in summer. When T a exceeds T b, animals must resort to behavioral and physiological methods to control their T b; failure to do so results in death. The observations of this study show that in many cases T b is already close to the upper lethal limit of around 47° C in these species and therefore allowing their T b to increase as T a increases are not an option. We conclude that global warming will have a detrimental impact on a wide range of desert animals, but in reality we know little about the ability of most animals to cope with change in T a. The data presented should serve as base-line information on T b of animals in the Kingdom for future scientists in Saudi Arabia as they explore the impact of global warming on animal species.

Can we consume our way out of climate change? A call for analysis

The problem of climate change is analyzed as a manifestation of economic growth, and the steady-state economy of ecological economics is proposed as a system-wide solution. Four classes of more specific solutions are described. In the absence of analysis, cultural inertia will bias solutions in favor of green consumption as a generalized solution strategy. By itself, green consumption is a flawed solution to climate change because it perpetuates or even accelerates economic growth that is incompatible with a sustainable culture. Addressing climate change requires an integration of regulatory, energy efficiency, skill-based, and dissemination solutions. Behavioral scientists are encouraged to work with others in ecological economics and other social sciences who recognize cultural reinvention as a means of achieving sustainability.