Could recent decreases in breast cancer incidence really be due to lower HRT use? Trends in attributable risk for modifiable breast cancer risk factors in Canadian women

Effect of alcohol consumption on breast cancer: probabilistic bias analysis for adjustment of exposure misclassification bias and confounders

PURPOSE

This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of alcohol consumption on breast cancer, adjusting for alcohol consumption misclassification bias and confounders.

METHODS

This was a case-control study of 932 women with breast cancer and 1000 healthy control. Using probabilistic bias analysis method, the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was adjusted for the misclassification bias of alcohol consumption as well as a minimally sufficient set of adjustment of confounders derived from a causal directed acyclic graph. Population attributable fraction was estimated using the Miettinen's Formula.

RESULTS

Based on the conventional logistic regression model, the odds ratio estimate between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.91). However, the adjusted estimates of odds ratio based on the probabilistic bias analysis ranged from 1.82 to 2.29 for non-differential and from 1.93 to 5.67 for differential misclassification. Population attributable fraction ranged from 1.51 to 2.57% using non-differential bias analysis and 1.54-3.56% based on differential bias analysis.

CONCLUSION

A marked measurement error was in self-reported alcohol consumption so after correcting misclassification bias, no evidence against independence between alcohol consumption and breast cancer changed to a substantial positive association.

Effect of Smoking on Breast Cancer by Adjusting for Smoking Misclassification Bias and Confounders Using a Probabilistic Bias Analysis Method

Purpose

The aim of this study was to determine the association between smoking and breast cancer after adjusting for smoking misclassification bias and confounders.

Methods

In this case–control study, 1000 women with breast cancer and 1000 healthy controls were selected. Using a probabilistic bias analysis method, the association between smoking and breast cancer was adjusted for the bias resulting from misclassification of smoking secondary to self-reporting as well as a minimally sufficient adjustment set of confounders derived from a causal directed acyclic graph (cDAG). Population attributable fraction (PAF) for smoking was calculated using Miettinen’s formula.

Results

While the odds ratio (OR) from the conventional logistic regression model between smoking and breast cancer was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.36–1.13), the adjusted ORs from the probabilistic bias analysis were in the ranges of 2.63–2.69 and 1.73–2.83 for non-differential and differential misclassification, respectively. PAF ranges obtained were 1.36–1.72% and 0.62–2.01% using the non-differential bias analysis and differential bias analysis, respectively.

Conclusion

After misclassification correction for smoking, the non-significant negative-adjusted association between smoking and breast cancer changed to a significant positive-adjusted association.

The Combined Association of Modifiable Risk Factors with Breast Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative

Although several modifiable risk factors have been independently associated with risk of breast cancer, few studies have investigated their joint association with breast cancer risk. Using a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score, we assessed the association of a combination of selected modifiable risk factors (diet, alcohol, physical activity, BMI, and smoking) with risk of invasive breast cancer in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). This study comprised 131,833 postmenopausal women, of whom 8,168 had breast cancer, who were enrolled in the WHI Observational Study or the WHI clinical trials. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of the score with the risk of developing breast cancer overall and according to specific breast cancer clinicopathologic characteristics. There was a 4% reduction in the risk of breast cancer per unit increase in the HLI score. Compared with those with an HLI score in the lowest quintile level, those in the highest quintile level had 30%, 37%, and 30% lower risk for overall, ER⁺/PR⁺, and HER2⁺ breast cancer, respectively (HR = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64-0.76; 0.63, 0.57-0.69; and 0.70; 0.55-0.90, respectively). We also observed inverse associations between the score and risk of breast cancer irrespective of nodal status, tumor grade, and stage of the disease. Most individual lifestyle factors were independently associated with the risk of breast cancer. Our findings support the view that promoting healthy lifestyle practices may be beneficial with respect to lowering risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women. Cancer Prev Res; 11(6); 317-26. ©2018 AACRSee related editorial by Friedenreich and McTiernan, p. 313.

Cancer incidence attributable to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012

BACKGROUND

Excess body weight has been consistently associated with colorectal, breast, endometrial, esophageal, gall bladder, pancreatic and kidney cancers. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the proportion of total and site-specific cancers attributable to excess body weight in adults in Alberta in 2012.

METHODS

We estimated the proportions of attributable cancers using population attributable risk. Risk estimates were obtained from recent meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence estimates were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. People with a body mass index of 25.00-29.99 kg/m2 and of 30 kg/m2 or more were categorized as overweight and obese, respectively.

RESULTS

About 14%-47% of men and 9%-35% of women in Alberta were classified as either overweight or obese; the proportion increased with increasing age for both sexes. We estimate that roughly 17% and 12% of obesity-related cancers among men and women, respectively, could be attributed to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012. The heaviest absolute burden in terms of number of cases was seen for breast cancer among women and for colorectal cancer among men. Overall, about 5% of all cancers in adults in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to excess body weight in 2000-2003.

INTERPRETATION

Excess body weight contributes to a substantial proportion of cases of cancers associated with overweight and obesity annually in Alberta. Strategies to improve energy imbalance and reduce the proportion of obese and overweight Albertans may have a notable impact on cancer incidence in the future.

Cancer incidence attributable to the use of oral contraceptives and hormone therapy in Alberta in 2012

BACKGROUND

Hormonal contraceptives and hormone replacement therapies are classified as carcinogenic to humans (group 1) by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We sought to estimate the proportion and total number of cancers attributable to the use of oral contraceptives and hormone therapy in Alberta in 2012.

METHODS

Population attributable risks were used to estimate the proportion of attributable cases for each associated cancer site. Relative risk estimates were obtained from the most relevant and recent epidemiologic literature. Prevalences of the use of oral contraceptives and hormone therapy in Alberta were collected from Alberta's Tomorrow Project. Specific cancer incidence data were obtained from the Alberta Cancer Registry for the year 2012.

RESULTS

Overall, 6.3% of breast cancers (n = 135) diagnosed in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to the use of oral contraceptives, and the exposure potentially prevented about 57.3% of endometrial cancers (n = 276) and 29.1% of ovarian cancers (n = 52). About 15.5% of breast cancers (n = 258) and 8.9% of ovarian cancers (n = 13) were estimated to be attributable to the use of hormone therapy, whereas 11.3% of endometrial cancers (n = 48) were possibly prevented by the exposure.

INTERPRETATION

Based on our estimates, oral contraceptive use resulted in a net protective effect among the cancer sites studied, thus reducing the cancer burden in Alberta in 2012. The use of hormone therapy was estimated to increase the cancer burden in the province, therefore the risk and benefit of hormone therapy should be carefully considered before use.

The fractions of cancer attributable to modifiable factors: A global review

Worldwide, the burden of cancer is rising, stimulating efforts to develop strategies to control these diseases. Primary prevention, a key control strategy, aims to reduce cancer incidence through programs directed towards reducing population exposure to known causal factors. Before enacting such strategies, it is necessary to estimate the likely effect on cancer incidence if exposures to known causal factors were reduced or eliminated. The population attributable fraction (PAF) is the epidemiological measure which quantifies this potential reduction in incidence. We surveyed the literature to document and summarise the proportions of cancers across the globe attributable to modifiable causes, specifically tobacco smoke, alcohol, overweight/obesity, insufficient physical activity, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation and dietary factors (insufficient fruit, non-starchy vegetables and fibre; red/processed meat; salt). In total, we identified 55 articles that presented PAF estimates for one or more causes. Information coverage was not uniform, with many articles reporting cancer PAFs due to overweight/obesity, alcohol and tobacco, but fewer reporting PAFs for dietary factors or solar UV radiation. At all cancer sites attributable to tobacco and alcohol, median PAFs were markedly lower for women than men. Smoking contributed to very high median PAFs (>50%) for cancers of the lung and larynx. Median PAFs for men, attributable to alcohol, were high (25-50%) for cancers of the oesophagus, oral cavity/pharynx, larynx and liver. For cancers causally associated with overweight/obesity, high median PAFs were reported for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (men 29%, women 37%), gallbladder (men 11%, women 42%) and endometrium (36%). The cancer PAF literature is growing rapidly. Repeating this survey in the future should lead to more precise estimates of the potentially preventable fractions of cancer.

A methodologic framework to evaluate the number of cancers attributable to lifestyle and environment in Alberta

BACKGROUND

Previous research to estimate population attributable risks for cancer in Alberta has been limited. Attributable burden estimates are important for planning and implementing population-based cancer prevention strategies. This article describes a methodologic framework to estimate the number of incident cancers attributable to modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors in Alberta.

METHODS

We estimated population attributable risks for cancer for exposures to 24 established cancer risk factors including tobacco consumption and environmental tobacco exposure, environmental factors, infectious agents, hormone therapies, dietary intake, obesity and physical inactivity. We used risk estimates to quantify the association between individual exposures and cancer sites as well as prevalence estimates for individual exposures in Alberta to estimate the proportion of cancer in Alberta that could be attributed to each exposure. These estimations were conducted in the context of a theoretical minimum risk principle, whereby exposures corresponding to the lowest levels of population risk were used as the comparisons for alternative exposure levels.

INTE RPRETATION

We outline the main methodologic principles for the protocol used in evaluating population attributable risks for modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors for cancer in Alberta. The data produced by this project will provide important information concerning which known cancer risk factors are responsible for the largest proportions of cancer in Alberta and could inform future cancer prevention strategies.

Analyzing historical trends in breast cancer biomarker expression: a feasibility study (1947-2009)

Background/Objectives:

Determining long-term trends in tumor biomarker expression is essential for understanding aspects of tumor biology amenable to change. Limiting the availability of such data, currently used assays for biomarkers are relatively new. For example, assays for the estrogen receptor (ER), which are the oldest, extend back only to the 1970s.

Methods:

To extend scant knowledge about the feasibility of obtaining long-term data on tumor biomarkers, we randomly selected 60 breast cancer cases (10 per decade) diagnosed between 1947–2009 among women members of the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health plan to obtain and analyze their formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor specimens. For each tumor specimen, we created duplicate tissue microarrays for analysis.

Results:

We located tumor blocks and pathology reports for 50 of the 60 cases (83%), from which we randomly sampled 5 cases per decade for biomarker analysis (n=30). All 30 cases displayed excellent morphology and exhibited biomarkers compatible with histologic type and grade. Test–retest reliability was also excellent: 100% for ER; 97% for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 and epidermal growth factor receptor; 93% for progesterone receptor and cytokeratin 5/6; and 90% for Ki67 and molecular phenotype; the kappa statistic was excellent (>0.9) for 4 of the 7 biomarkers, strong (0.6–0.8) for 2, and fair for only 1 (owing to low prevalence).

Conclusions:

These results indicate immunostaining for biomarkers commonly used to evaluate breast cancer biology and assign surrogate molecular phenotypes can reliably be employed on archival FFPE specimens up to 60 years old.

The proportion of postmenopausal breast cancer cases in the Netherlands attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors

We aimed to estimate the proportion of Dutch postmenopausal breast cancer cases in 2010 that is attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) of potentially modifiable risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer in Dutch women aged >50 in 2010. First, age-specific PAFs were calculated for each risk factor, based on their relative risks for postmenopausal breast cancer (from meta-analyses) and age-specific prevalence in the population (from national surveys) around the year 2000, assuming a latency period of 10 years. To obtain the overall PAF, age-specific PAFs were summed in a weighted manner, using the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2010) as weights. 95 % confidence intervals for PAF estimates were derived by Monte Carlo simulations. Of Dutch women >40 years, in 2000, 51 % were overweight/obese, 55 % physically inactive (<5 days/week 30 min activity), 75 % regularly consumed alcohol, 42 % ever smoked cigarettes and 79 % had a low-fibre intake (<3.4 g/1000 kJ/day). These factors combined had a PAF of 25.7 % (95 % CI 24.2–27.2), corresponding to 2,665 Dutch postmenopausal breast cancer cases in 2010. PAFs were 8.8 % (95 % CI 6.3–11.3) for overweight/obesity, 6.6 % (95 % CI 5.2–8.0) for alcohol consumption, 5.5 % (95 % CI 4.0–7.0) for physical inactivity, 4.6 % (95 % CI 3.3–6.0) for smoking and 3.2 % (95 % CI 1.6–4.8) for low-fibre intake. Our findings imply that modifiable risk factors are jointly responsible for approximately one out of four Dutch postmenopausal breast cancer cases. This suggests that incidence rates can be lowered substantially by living a more healthy lifestyle.

Cancer incidence due to excess body weight and leisure-time physical inactivity in Canada: implications for prevention

OBJECTIVE

This analysis aimed to estimate the number of incident cases of various cancers attributable to excess body weight (overweight, obesity) and leisure-time physical inactivity annually in Canada.

METHODS

The number of attributable cancers was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF), risk estimates from recent meta-analyses and population exposure prevalence estimates obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000). Age-sex-site-specific cancer incidence was obtained from Statistics Canada tables for the most up-to-date year with full national data, 2007. Where the evidence for association has been deemed sufficient, we estimated the number of incident cases of the following cancers attributable to obesity: colon, breast, endometrium, esophagus (adenocarcinomas), gallbladder, pancreas and kidney; and to physical inactivity: colon, breast, endometrium, prostate, lung and/or bronchus, and ovarian.

RESULTS

Overall, estimates of all cancer incidence in 2007 suggest that at least 3.5% (n=5771) and 7.9% (n=12,885) are attributed to excess body weight and physical inactivity respectively. For both risk factors the burden of disease was greater among women than among men.

CONCLUSION

Thousands of incident cases of cancer could be prevented annually in Canada as good evidence exists for effective interventions to reduce these risk factors in the population.

Systematic review about breast cancer incidence in relation to hormone replacement therapy use

BACKGROUND

Several studies report a decrease in breast cancer incidence subsequent to the decrease in hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. But its magnitude and the time-lag may vary between countries. This may reflect differences in populations, previous type and prevalence of HRT use and breast cancer screening.

AIM

To review systematically studies assessing the relation between breast cancer incidence and change of HRT use.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Descriptive analysis of the methodology of the studies including design limitations and presence of confounding factors, data sources for breast cancer and HRT and regimens of HRT used.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Eighteen articles were selected. Most studies were ecological and confounding factors such as mammography screening and changes in reproductive and lifestyle habits could not be excluded. Sources of data on breast cancer and HRT were heterogeneous and only few data on HRT regimens used were available. Most studies concluded that the decrease in HRT use during the last decade was probably associated with a decrease in breast cancer incidence, especially for women aged 50 years or more.

CONCLUSIONS

Data, mostly from epidemiological studies, suggest that the decrease in breast cancer incidence can be partly attributed to the drop in HRT use. Nevertheless, available studies are hampered by a number of limitations and it remains difficult to evaluate the exact impact of the drop in HRT use on the decrease in breast cancer incidence. Especially, the studies are seldom based on detailed individual data and do not provide information on regimens used, type of cancers and possible confounding factors.

Changing concepts: Menopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer

Hormone therapy is still used by millions of women for menopausal symptoms. Concerns regarding hormone therapy and breast cancer were initially based on case reports and retrospective case-control studies. However, recent results from large prospective cohort studies and the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized placebo-controlled hormone therapy trials have substantially changed concepts regarding how estrogen alone and estrogen plus progestin influence breast cancer. The preponderance of observational studies suggested that estrogen alone and estrogen plus progestin both increased the risk of breast cancer, with cancers commonly diagnosed at an early stage. However, substantially different results emerged from the WHI randomized hormone therapy trials. In the WHI trial evaluating estrogen plus progestin in postmenopausal women with an intact uterus, combined hormone therapy statistically significantly increased the risk of breast cancer and hindered breast cancer detection, leading to delayed diagnosis and a statistically significant increase in breast cancer mortality. By contrast, estrogen alone use by postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy in the WHI trial did not substantially interfere with breast cancer detection and statistically significantly decreased the risk of breast cancer. Differential mammography usage patterns may explain differences between observational study and randomized trial results. In clinical practice, hormone therapy users have mammograms more frequently than nonusers, leading to more and earlier stage cancer detection. By contrast, in the WHI randomized trials, mammogram frequency was protocol mandated and balanced between comparison groups. Currently, the different effects of estrogen plus progestin vs estrogen alone on breast cancer are not completely understood.