Development and validation of a practical clinical risk prediction model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

Background

Pancreatitis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop an accurate post-ERCP pancreatitis risk prediction model using easily obtainable variables.

Methods

Using prospective multi-center ERCP data, we performed logistic regression using stepwise selection on several patient-, procedure-, and endoscopist-related factors that were determined a priori. The final model was based on a combination of the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike's information criterion performance, balancing the inclusion of clinically relevant variables and model parsimony. All available data were used for model development, with subsequent internal validation performed on bootstrapped data using 10-fold cross-validation.

Results

Data from 3021 ERCPs were used to inform models. There were 151 cases of post-ERCP pancreatitis (5.0% incidence). Variables included in the final model included female sex, pancreatic duct cannulation, native papilla status, pre-cut sphincterotomy, increasing cannulation time, presence of biliary stricture, patient age, and placement of a pancreatic duct stent. The final model was discriminating, with a receiver operating characteristic curve statistic of 0.79, and well-calibrated, with a predicted risk-to-observed risk ratio of 1.003.

Conclusions

We successfully developed and internally validated a promising post-ERCP pancreatitis clinical prediction model using easily obtainable variables that are known at baseline or observed during the ERCP procedure. The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.79. External validation is planned as additional data becomes available.

The projected health and economic impact of increased colorectal cancer screening participation among Canadians by income quintile

OBJECTIVES

Disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening uptake by socioeconomic status have been observed in Canada. We used the OncoSim-Colorectal model to evaluate the health and economic outcomes associated with increasing the participation rates of CRC screening programs to 60% among Canadians in different income quintiles.

METHODS

Baseline CRC screening participation rates were obtained from the 2017 Canadian Community Health Survey. The survey participants were categorized into income quintiles using their reported household income and 2016 Canadian Census income quintile thresholds. Within each quintile, the participation rate was the proportion of respondents aged 50-74 who reported having had a fecal test in the past two years. Using the OncoSim-Colorectal model, we simulated an increase in CRC screening uptake to 60% across income quintiles to assess the effects on CRC incidence, mortality, and associated economic costs from 2024 to 2073.

RESULTS

Increasing CRC screening participation rates to 60% across all income quintiles would prevent 69,100 CRC cases and 36,600 CRC deaths over 50 years. The improvement of clinical outcomes would also translate to increased person-years and health-adjusted person-years. The largest impact was observed in the lowest income group, with 22,200 cases and 11,700 deaths prevented over 50 years. Increased participation could lead to higher screening costs ($121 million CAD more per year) and lower treatments costs ($95 million CAD less per year), averaged over the period 2024-2073.

CONCLUSION

Increased screening participation will improve clinical outcomes across all income groups while alleviating associated treatment costs. The benefits of increased participation will be strongest among the lowest income quintile.

Relative Efficacies of Interventions to Improve the Quality of Screening-Related Colonoscopy: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Significant variability exists in colonoscopy quality indicators, including adenoma detection rate (ADR). We synthesized evidence from randomized trials in a network meta-analysis on interventions to improve colonoscopy quality.

METHODS

We included trials from database inceptions to September 25, 2023, of patients undergoing screening-related colonoscopy and presented efficacies of interventions within domains (periprocedural parameters, endoscopist-directed interventions, intraprocedural techniques, endoscopic technologies, distal attachment devices, and additive substances) compared to standard colonoscopy. The primary outcome was ADR. We used a Bayesian random-effects model using Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation, with 10,000 burn-ins and 100,000 iterations. We calculated odds ratios with 95% credible intervals and present surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) curves.

RESULTS

We included 124 trials evaluating 37 interventions for the primary outcome. Nine interventions resulted in statistically significant improvements in ADR compared to standard colonoscopy (9-minute withdrawal time, dual observation, water exchange, iScan, linked color imaging, computer-aided detection, Endocuff, Endocuff Vision, and oral methylene blue). Dual observation (SUCRA, 0.84) and water exchange (SUCRA, 0.78) ranked highest among intraprocedural techniques; iScan (SUCRA, 0.95), linked color imaging (SUCRA, 0.85), and computer-aided detection (SUCRA, 0.78) among endoscopic technologies; WingCap (SUCRA, 0.87) and Endocuff (SUCRA, 0.85) among distal attachment devices and oral methylene blue (SUCRA, 0.94) among additive substances. No interventions improved detection of advanced adenomas, and only narrow-band imaging improved detection of serrated lesions (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% credible interval, 1.46-6.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Several interventions are effective in improving adenoma detection and overall colonoscopy quality, many of which are cost-free. These results can inform endoscopists, unit managers, and endoscopy societies on relative efficacies.

Text analysis framework for identifying mutations among non-small cell lung cancer patients from laboratory data

BACKGROUND

Laboratory data can provide great value to support research aimed at reducing the incidence, prolonging survival and enhancing outcomes of cancer. Data is characterized by the information it carries and the format it holds. Data captured in Alberta's biomarker laboratory repository is free text, cluttered and rouge. Such data format limits its utility and prohibits broader adoption and research development. Text analysis for information extraction of unstructured data can change this and lead to more complete analyses. Previous work on extracting relevant information from free text, unstructured data employed Natural Language Processing (NLP), Machine Learning (ML), rule-based Information Extraction (IE) methods, or a hybrid combination between them.

METHODS

In our study, text analysis was performed on Alberta Precision Laboratories data which consisted of 95,854 entries from the Southern Alberta Dataset (SAD) and 6944 entries from the Northern Alberta Dataset (NAD). The data covers all of Alberta and is completely population-based. Our proposed framework is built around rule-based IE methods. It incorporates topics such as Syntax and Lexical analyses to achieve deterministic extraction of data from biomarker laboratory data (i.e., Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) test results). Lexical analysis compromises of data cleaning and pre-processing, Rich Text Format text conversion into readable plain text format, and normalization and tokenization of text. The framework then passes the text into the Syntax analysis stage which includes the rule-based method of extracting relevant data. Rule-based patterns of the test result are identified, and a Context Free Grammar then generates the rules of information extraction. Finally, the results are linked with the Alberta Cancer Registry to support real-world cancer research studies.

RESULTS

Of the original 5512 entries in the SAD dataset and 5017 entries in the NAD dataset which were filtered for EGFR, the framework yielded 5129 and 3388 extracted EGFR test results from the SAD and NAD datasets, respectively. An accuracy of 97.5% was achieved on a random sample of 362 tests.

CONCLUSIONS

We presented a text analysis framework to extract specific information from unstructured clinical data. Our proposed framework has shown that it can successfully extract relevant information from EGFR test results.

Progress in site-specific cancer mortality in Canada over the last 70 years

In Canada, the absolute number of cancer deaths has been steadily increasing, however, age-standardized cancer mortality rates peaked decades ago for most cancers. The objective of this study was to estimate the reduction in deaths for each cancer type under the scenario where peak mortality rates had remained stable in Canada. Data for this study were obtained the Global Cancer Observatory and Statistics Canada. We estimated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR, per 100,000) from 1950 to 2022, standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population. We identified peak mortality rates and applied the age-specific mortality rates from the peak year to the age-specific Canadian population estimates for subsequent years (up to 2022) to estimate the number of expected deaths. Avoided cancer deaths were the difference between the observed and expected number of cancer deaths. There have been major reductions in deaths among cancers related to tobacco consumption and other modifiable lifestyle habits (417,561 stomach; 218,244 colorectal; 186,553 lung; 66,281 cervix; 32,732 head and neck; 27,713 bladder; 22,464 leukemia; 20,428 pancreas; 8863 kidney; 3876 esophagus; 290 liver). There have been 201,979 deaths avoided for female-specific cancers (breast, cervix, ovary, uterus). Overall, there has been a 34% reduction in mortality for lung cancer among males and a 9% reduction among females. There has been a significant reduction in cancer mortality in Canada since site-specific cancer mortality rates peaked decades ago for many cancers. This shows the exceptional progress made in cancer control in Canada due to substantial improvements in prevention, screening, and treatment. This study highlights priority areas where more attention and investment are needed to achieve progress.

Adjuvant Ovarian Function Suppression in Premenopausal Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

Importance

Few oncology studies have assessed the effectiveness of adjuvant ovarian function suppression (OFS) in observational settings for premenopausal hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Target trial emulation is increasingly used for estimating treatment outcomes in observational cohorts.

Objectives

To describe hormone therapy and OFS treatment patterns (aim 1), examine the association between adding OFS to tamoxifen (TAM) or aromatase inhibitor (AI) and survival (aim 2), and examine the association between duration of hormone treatment (TAM or AI) plus OFS (H-OFS) and survival (aim 3).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study included all premenopausal, early-stage breast cancer diagnoses between 2010 and 2020 in Alberta, Canada. Target trial emulation was conducted. Eligibility criteria were directly modeled after the Suppression of Ovarian Function Trial (SOFT) and Tamoxifen and Exemestane Trial (TEXT). Participants were followed up for a maximum of 5 years. Data were analyzed from July 2022 through March 2023.

Exposures

For aim 2, exposures were receiving the following baseline treatments for 2 years: AI + OFS (AI-OFS), TAM + OFS (T-OFS), and TAM alone. For aim 3, exposures were a 2-year or greater and a less than 2-year duration of H-OFS.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Recurrence-free survival was the primary outcome of interest. Marginal structural Cox models with inverse probability treatment and censoring weights were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for baseline and time-varying confounding variables.

Results

Among 3434 female patients with premenopausal, early-stage breast cancer diagnoses (median [IQR] age, 45 [40-48] years), 2647 individuals satisfied SOFT and TEXT eligibility criteria. There were 2260 patients who initiated TAM, 232 patients who initiated T-OFS, and 155 patients who initiated AI-OFS; 192 patients received H-OFS for 2 or more years, and 195 patients received H-OFS for less than 2 years. The 5-year recurrence risks were not significantly lower in AI-OFS vs TAM (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.38-1.33) or T-OFS vs TAM (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.50-1.45) groups. Patients receiving H-OFS for 2 or more years had significantly better 5-year recurrence-free survival compared with those receiving H-OFS for less than 2 years (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.90).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found no significant reductions in recurrence risk for AI-OFS and T-OFS compared with TAM alone. H-OFS duration for at least 2 years was associated with significantly improved recurrence-free survival.

Estimating cancers attributable to physical inactivity in Australia

OBJECTIVES

It was previously estimated that 1814 (1.6 % of incident cancers) were attributable to physical inactivity in Australia in 2010, when only three sites were considered. We estimated the burden of cancer due to physical inactivity in Australia for 13 sites.

DESIGN

The population attributable fraction estimated site-specific cancer cases attributable to physical inactivity for 13 cancers. The potential impact fraction was used to estimate cancers that could have been prevented in 2015 if Australian adults had increased their physical activity by a modest amount in 2004-05.

METHODS

We used 2004-05 national physical activity prevalence data, 2015 national cancer incidence data, and contemporary relative-risk estimates for physical inactivity and cancer. We assumed a 10-year latency period.

RESULTS

An estimated 6361 of the cancers observed in 2015 were attributable to physical inactivity, representing 4.8 % of all cancers diagnosed. If Australian adults had increased their physical activity by one category in 2004-05, 2564 cases (1.9 % of all cancers) could have been prevented in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

More than three times as many cancers are attributable to physical inactivity than previously reported. Physical activity promotion should be a central component of cancer prevention programmes in Australia.

Association between treatment and improvements in overall survival of patients with advanced/metastatic non-small cell lung cancer since 2011: A study in the United States, Canada, and Germany using retrospective real-world databases

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to describe treatment patterns and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) in three countries between 2011 and 2020.

METHODS

Three databases (US, Canada, Germany) were used to identify incident aNSCLC patients. OS was assessed from the date of incident aNSCLC diagnosis and, for patients who received at least a first line of therapy (1LOT), from the date of 1LOT initiation. In multivariable analyses, we analyzed the influence of index year and type of prescribed treatment on OS.

FINDINGS

We included 51,318 patients with an incident aNSCLC diagnosis. The percentage of patients treated with a 1LOT differed substantially between countries, whereas the number of patients receiving immunotherapies/targeted treatments increased over time in all three countries. Median OS from the date of incident diagnosis was 9.9 months in the United States vs. 4.1 months in Canada. When measured from the start of 1LOT, patients had a median OS of 10.7 months in the United States, 10.9 months in Canada, and 10.9 months in Germany. OS from the start of 1LOT improved in all three countries from 2011 to 2020 by approximately 3 to 4 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Observed continuous improvement in OS among patients receiving at least a 1LOT from 2011 to 2020 was likely driven by improved care and changes in the treatment landscape. The difference in the proportion of patients receiving a 1LOT in the observed countries requires further investigation.

The association between neighborhood-level income and cancer stage at diagnosis and survival in Alberta

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a range of health outcomes, including cancer diagnosis and survival. However, the evidence for this association is inconsistent between countries with and without single-payer health care systems. In this study, the relationships between neighborhood-level income, cancer stage at diagnosis, and cancer-specific mortality in Alberta, Canada, were evaluated.

METHODS

The Alberta Cancer Registry was used to identify all primary cancer diagnoses between 2010 and 2020. Average neighborhood income was determined by linking the Canadian census to postal codes and was categorized into quintiles on the basis of income distribution in Alberta. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to model the association between income quintile and stage at diagnosis, and the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model was used to estimate the association between SES and cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Out of the 143,818 patients with cancer included in the study, those in lower income quintiles were significantly more likely to be diagnosed at stage III (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI [confidence interval], 1.06-1.09) or IV (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14) after adjusting for age and sex. Lower income quintiles also had significantly worse cancer-specific survival for breast, colorectal, liver, lung, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, oral cavity, pancreas, and prostate cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Disparities were observed in cancer outcomes across neighborhood-level income groups in Alberta, which demonstrates that health inequities by SES exist in countries with single-payer health care systems. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying causes and to develop strategies to mitigate these disparities.

Treatment Patterns and Health Outcomes among Patients with HER2 IHC0/-Low Metastatic or Recurrent Breast Cancer

Improved understanding of the biological heterogeneity of breast cancer (BC) has facilitated the development of more effective and personalized approaches to treatment. This study describes real-world evidence on treatment patterns and outcomes for a population-based cohort of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) IHC0 and -low BC with de novo or recurrent disease from Alberta, Canada. Patients 18+ years old diagnosed with HER2 IHC0/-low, de novo/recurrent BC from 2010 to 2019 were identified using Alberta's cancer registry. Analyses of these patients' existing electronic medical records and administrative claims data were conducted to examine patient characteristics, treatment patterns, and survival outcomes. A total of 3413 patients were included in the study, of which 72.10% initiated first line hormonal and non-hormonal systemic therapy. The 1-year overall survival (OS) was 81.09% [95% CI, 79.52-82.69]. Recurrent patients had a higher OS compared to de novo patients: 54.30 months [95% CI, 47.80-61.90] vs. 31.5 months [95% CI, 28.40-35.90], respectively. Median OS was 43.4 months [95% CI, 40.70-47.10] and 35.80 months [95% CI, 29.00-41.70] among patients with HER2-low and HER2 IHC0 cancer, respectively. The study results provide real-world evidence regarding the clinical outcomes of HER2 IHC0/-low and de novo/recurrent disease.

The Association between Red Meat Consumption and Advanced Colorectal Adenomas in a Population Undergoing a Screening-Related Colonoscopy in Alberta, Canada

The association between red meat consumption and colorectal cancer has been rigorously examined. However, a more comprehensive understanding of how the intake of unprocessed red meat contributes to the development of early precancerous colorectal lesions, such as advanced colorectal adenomas (ACRAs), requires further investigation. We examined the associations between different types of red meat intake and ACRAs in a sample population of 1083 individuals aged ≥ 50 years undergoing an initial screening colonoscopy in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Associations between grams per day of total, processed, and unprocessed red meat from diet history questionnaires and ACRAs were evaluated with multivariable logistic regression models. We also applied cubic spline models fitted with three knots (10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles) to identify potential nonlinear associations. We did not observe a meaningful association between unprocessed red meat intake and the presence of ACRAs. In contrast, for every 10 g/d increase in total and processed meat intake, we observed an increase in the odds of ACRAs at the screening colonoscopy (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, 95% [CI = 1.01-1.09], p = 0.04) and (adjusted OR = 1.11, 95% [CI = 1.02-1.20], p = 0.02), respectively. This study highlights the importance of differentiating between types of red meat consumption in the context of dietary risks associated with ACRAs.

Real-World Treatment Patterns, Clinical Outcomes, and Healthcare Resource Utilization in Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

The prognosis of early non-small-cell lung cancer (eNSCLC) remains poor. An understanding of current therapies and outcomes can provide insights into how novel therapies can be integrated into clinics. We conducted a large, retrospective, population-based cohort study of patients with de novo eNSCLC (stages IB, IIA, IIB, and IIIA) diagnosed in Alberta, Canada, between 2010 and 2019. The primary objectives were to describe treatment patterns and survival outcomes among patients with eNSCLC. A total of 5126 patients with eNSCLC were included. A total of 45.3% of patients were referred to a medical oncologist, ranging from 23.7% in stage IB to 58.3% in IIIA. A total of 23.6% of patients initiated systemic therapy (ST), ranging from 3.5% in stage IB to 38.5% in IIIA. For stage IIB and IIIA individuals who received surgery, adjuvant ST was associated with a decreased likelihood of death (hazard ratios (HR) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.56-1.07) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.54-0.89), respectively). In a Canadian real-world setting, stage IIB and IIIA patients who received adjuvant ST tended to have better survival than patients who did not, but future studies that provide adjustment of additional confounders are warranted. Examining referral pathways that account for disparities based on age, sex, and comorbidities in the real world would also provide further insights.

Next Generation Weight Loss Drugs for the Prevention of Cancer?

Background: Western populations are losing the battle over healthy weight management, and excess body weight is a notable cancer risk factor at the population level. There is ongoing interest in pharmacological interventions aimed at promoting weight loss, including GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), which may be a useful tool to stem the rising tide of obesity-related cancers. Purpose: To investigate the potential of next generation weight loss drugs (NGWLD) like GLP-1RA in population-level chemoprevention.Research Design: We used the OncoSim microsimulation tool to estimate the population-level reductions in obesity and the potentially avoidable obesity-related cancers in Canada over the next 25 years.Results: We estimated a total of 71 281 preventable cancers by 2049, with 36 235 and 35 046 cancers prevented for females and males, respectively. Among the 327 254 total projected cancer cases in 2049, 1.3% are estimated to be preventable through intervention with NGWLD.Conclusions: Pharmacologic intervention is not the ideal solution for the obesity-related cancer crisis. However, these agents and subsequent generations provide an additional tool to rapidly reduce body weight and adiposity in populations that have been extremely challenging to reduce weight with standard diet and exercise approaches. Additional research is needed around approaches to prevent initial weight gain and maintain long-term weight loss.

The Impact of BRAF Mutation Status on Survival Outcomes and Treatment Patterns among Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients in Alberta, Canada

Colorectal cancer presents via multiple different clinical phenotypes that can arise from a variety of different genetic and molecular alterations. The aim of this study was to describe survival outcomes and treatment patterns of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients by v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B1 (BRAF) mutation status. The Alberta Cancer Registry was used to identify all patients >18 years old who had been diagnosed with mCRC in Alberta between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2019 and had received at least one cycle of systemic therapy. Treatment patterns were compared between wild-type and mutant BRAF mCRC patients. Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves were created to assess survival differences by both treatment pattern and BRAF status. A total of 488 patients were identified with mCRC, of which 42 (11.4%) were confirmed to have a BRAF mutation. The most common first-line treatment regimen was either capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) or leucovorin calcium (folinic acid), fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX). The median overall survival for mCRC patients was 20.01 months. Mutant BRAF patients had a median survival of 8.21 months compared to 20.03 months among those with wild-type BRAF. BRAF mutations among mCRC patients are associated with a considerably poor prognosis, reinforcing the need for clinical BRAF testing among newly diagnosed patients to better understand their prognosis.

Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020-2040

The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998-2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000-2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment.

Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection Versus Surgery or Endoscopic Mucosal Resection for Metachronous Early Gastric Cancer: a Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Resection options for early gastric cancer (EGC) include endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD), endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR), and surgery. In patients with metachronous EGC following previous resection, the optimal resection technique is not well elucidated. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing ESD to EMR, or ESD to surgery, in patients with metachronous EGC.

METHODS

We conducted an electronic search of studies reporting on outcomes and AEs following ESD versus either EMR or surgery for patients with metachronous EGC. Pooled odds ratios (OR) of included studies were obtained using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. Funnel plots were produced and visually inspected for evidence of publication bias. The quality of the evidence was assessed using GRADE.

RESULTS

A total of 9367 abstracts were screened and 10 observational studies were included. The odds of complete resection were higher amongst patients undergoing ESD compared to EMR (OR 5.88, 95% confidence intervals, CI, 1.79-19.35), whereas the odds of complete resection were no different between ESD and surgery (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.04-8.24). There were no differences in the odds of local recurrence with ESD versus surgery (OR 5.01, 95% CI 0.86-29.13). Post-procedural bleeding did not differ significantly between ESD and EMR (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.16-3.00). There was no evidence of publication bias.

DISCUSSION

For metachronous EGC, ESD or surgery is preferred over EMR depending on local expertise and patient preferences, largely due to a higher risk of incomplete resection with EMR.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021270445.

Progress in cancer control leads to a substantial number of cancer deaths avoided in Canada

It is currently not known how many more cancer deaths would have occurred among Canadians if cancer mortality rates were unchanged following various modern human interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of cancer deaths that have been avoided in Canada since the age-standardized overall cancer mortality rate peaked in 1988. We applied the age-specific overall cancer mortality rates from 1988 to the Canadian population for all subsequent years to estimate the number of expected deaths. Avoided cancer deaths were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected number of cancer deaths for each year. Since 1988, there have been 372 584 (standardized mortality ratio = 0.77) and 120 045 (standardized mortality ratio = 0.90) avoided cancer deaths in males and females, respectively (492 629 total). Nearly half a million cancer deaths have been avoided in Canada since the overall cancer mortality rate peaked, which demonstrates the exceptional progress made in modern cancer control in Canada.

Association of Reducing the Recommended Colorectal Cancer Screening Age With Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and Costs in Canada Using OncoSim

Importance

Recent US guideline updates have advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening to begin at age 45 years in average-risk adults, whereas Canadian screening programs continue to begin screening at age 50 years. Similarities in early-onset CRC rates in Canada and the US warrant discussion of earlier screening in Canada, but there is a lack of Canadian-specific modeling data to inform this.

Objective

To estimate the association of a lowered initiation age for CRC screening by biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) with CRC incidence, mortality, and health care system costs in Canada.

Design, Setting, and Participants/Exposures

This economic evaluation computational study used microsimulation modeling via the OncoSim platform.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Modeled rates of CRC incidence, mortality, and health care costs in Canadian dollars.

Results

This analysis included 4 birth cohorts (1973-1977, 1978-1982, 1983-1987, and 1988-1992) representative of the Canadian population accounting for previously documented effects of increasing CRC incidence in younger birth cohorts. Screening initiation at age 45 years resulted in a net 12 188 fewer CRC cases, 5261 fewer CRC deaths, and an added 92 112 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to the cohort population over a 40-year period relative to screening from age 50 years. Screening initiation at age 40 years yielded 18 135 fewer CRC cases, 7988 fewer CRC deaths, and 150 373 QALYs. The cost per QALY decreased with younger birth cohorts to a cost of $762 per QALY when Canadians born in 1988 to 1992 began screening at age 45 years or $2622 per QALY with screening initiation at age 40 years. Although costs associated with screening and resulting therapeutic interventions increased with earlier screening, the overall health care system cost of managing CRC decreased.

Conclusions and Relevance

This economic evaluation study using microsimulation modeling found that earlier screening may reduce CRC disease burden and add life-years to the Canadian population at a modest cost. Guideline changes suggesting earlier CRC screening in Canada may be justified, but evaluation of the resulting effects on colonoscopy capacity is necessary.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Model for Patients with Advanced Melanoma Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification tools for patients with advanced melanoma (AM) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) are lacking. We identified a new prognostic model associated with overall survival (OS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 318 treatment naïve patients with AM receiving ICI were collected from a multi-centre retrospective cohort study. LASSO Cox regression identified independent prognostic factors associated with OS. Model validation was carried out on 500 iterations of bootstrapped samples. Harrel's C-index was calculated and internally validated to outline the model's discriminatory performance. External validation was carried out in 142 advanced melanoma patients receiving ICI in later lines.

RESULTS

High white blood cell count (WBC), high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), low albumin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status ≥1, and the presence of liver metastases were included in the model. Patients were parsed into 3 risk groups: favorable (0-1 factors) OS of 52.9 months, intermediate (2-3 factors) OS 13.0 months, and poor (≥4 factors) OS 2.7 months. The C-index of the model from the discovery cohort was 0.69. External validation in later-lines (N = 142) of therapy demonstrated a c-index of 0.65.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver metastases, low albumin, high LDH, high WBC, and ECOG≥1 can be combined into a prognostic model for AM patients treated with ICI.

Comparative Effectiveness of Lurbinectedin for the Treatment of Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer in the Post-Platinum Setting: A Real-World Canadian Synthetic Control Arm Analysis

BACKGROUND

Based on findings from a single-arm, phase 2 basket trial (NCT02454972), lurbinectedin may be an effective treatment for individuals with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) who progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the comparative effectiveness of lurbinectedin versus the historical standard of care for relapsed SCLC in Canada.

METHODS

A synthetic control arm (SCA) analysis was conducted using real-world data. Population-level data were obtained from real-world databases in Alberta, Canada. Individuals diagnosed with SCLC who initiated post-platinum systemic therapy and met approximated eligibility criteria from the lurbinectedin trial were included in the SCA. Median overall survival (OS) in the SCA was estimated after adjusting for chemotherapy-free interval (CTFI; < 90 versus ≥ 90 days) and stage at initial diagnosis (extensive versus limited). The CTFI-adjusted hazard ratio was estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-four individuals were included in the SCA and 105 in the lurbinectedin trial. The adjusted median OS in the SCA was 6.1 months (95% CI 5.4-7.7 months; unadjusted: 6.7 months, 95% CI 6.0-7.7 months) versus 9.3 months (95% CI 6.3-11.8 months) in the lurbinectedin trial. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing lurbinectedin with the historical standard of care (referent group) was 0.61 (95% CI 0.45-0.82; unadjusted HR: 0.72; 95% CI 0.54-0.97). The hazard ratio was more pronounced among individuals with CTFI ≥ 90 days (HR: 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.73).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest improved OS with lurbinectedin monotherapy versus the historical standard of care in Alberta, Canada.

Time spent in the sun and the risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a Canadian cohort study

PURPOSE

The objective was to explore the relationship of sun behavior patterns with the risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL).

METHODS

Sun behavior information from Alberta's Tomorrow Project, CARTaGENE, and Ontario Health Study were utilized. The relationship between time in the sun during summer months and risk of NHL was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models with age as the time scale and adjustment for confounders. Cohorts were analyzed separately and hazard ratios (HR) pooled with random effects meta-analysis. Joint effects of time in the sun and use of sun protection were examined. Patterns of exposure were explored via combinations of weekday and weekend time in the sun.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 7.6 years, 205 NHL cases occurred among study participants (n = 79,803). Compared to < 30 min daily in the sun, we observed HRs of 0.84 (95% CI 0.55-1.28) for 30-59 min, 0.63 (95% CI 0.40-0.98) for 1-2 h, and 0.91 (95% CI 0.61-1.36) for > 2 h. There was suggestive evidence that > 2 h was protective against NHL with use of sun protection, but not without it. Compared to < 30 min daily, moderate exposure (30 min to 2 h on weekdays or weekend) was associated with a lower risk of NHL (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.43-0.92), while intermittent (< 30 min on weekdays and > 2 h on weekends) and chronic (> 2 h daily) were not.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence of a protective effect of moderate time spent in the sun on NHL risk.

External Validation of the FLIPI Risk Score Measured at Diagnosis and POD24 Among Individuals With Follicular Lymphoma at the Time of Subsequent Relapse

BACKGROUND

The Follicular lymphoma international prognostic index (FLIPI) risk score and POD24 have previously been shown to have prognostic value in follicular lymphoma (FL), but the extent to which they can inform prognosis at the time of subsequent relapse is uncertain.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of individuals diagnosed with FL between 2004 and 2010 in Alberta, Canada who received front-line therapy and subsequently relapsed. FLIPI covariates were measured prior to the initiation of front-line therapy. Median overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS2), and time to next treatment (TTNT2) were estimated from the time of relapse.

RESULTS

A total of 216 individuals were included. The FLIPI risk score was highly prognostic at the time of relapse for OS (c-statistic = 0.70; HR[High vs. Low] = 7.38; 95% CI: 3.05-17.88), PFS2 (c-statistic = 0.68; HR[High vs. Low] = 5.84; 95% CI: 2.93-11.62) and TTNT2 (c-statistic = 0.68; HR[High vs. Low] = 5.72; 95% CI: 2.87-11.41). POD24 was not prognostic at the time of relapse for either OS, PFS2, or TTNT2 (c-statistic = 0.55).

CONCLUSION

The FLIPI score measured at diagnosis may help with the risk stratification of individuals with relapsed FL.

A Real-World Evidence Study Using Alberta-Population-Based Data to Describe Treatment Patterns for Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer Patients (AWARENESS)

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decade, the treatment of metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) has changed significantly. Current guidelines suggest the use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) plus an additional systemic therapy, regardless of disease burden and risk, based on phase 1 evidence showing improved overall survival. We sought to describe treatment patterns of patients with mCSPC in the province of Alberta.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, population-based, cohort study of male patients aged ≥18 with mCSPC at the time of diagnosis and who initiated ADT between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020. Data were obtained from the Alberta Cancer Registry. Patients were assigned to an ADT-alone cohort or a treatment intensification cohort (cohorts 2-5). The primary objectives of this study were to describe baseline characteristics and the treatment of mCSPC patients who initiated ADT with or without treatment intensification. Overall survival between cohorts was a secondary objective. Descriptive statistics were used to describe differences in baseline characteristics of each cohort. Overall survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. All statistical tests were two-sided and are used to call out likely cohort differences descriptively.

RESULTS

Between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020, we identified a total of 960 patients with mCSPC (median age 74 years, IQR 66-82). Most patients received ADT alone (67%), followed by ADT plus abiraterone (18%), ADT plus docetaxel (12%), and ADT plus enzalutamide or apalutamide (3%). Over the study period, we observed an increase in the utilization of treatment intensification over time, in particular, the increased use of androgen-receptor-axis-targeted (ARAT) therapies. Patients who received ADT alone were older, were more likely to have more than one comorbid condition, had fewer sites of metastatic disease, and were less likely to be on opioid medications.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show that patients who received ADT alone as treatment for mCSPC are older, have more comorbidities, and have less extensive disease. While there has been a decline over time in the number of patients treated with ADT alone, over 50% of all patients with mCSPC continue to receive ADT alone. Further work is needed to understand barriers to treatment intensification and for knowledge translation initiatives to improve the treatment of patients with mCSPC.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer diagnoses, stage and survival in Alberta

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is suspected to have affected cancer care and outcomes among patients in Canada. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the state of emergency period during the COVID-19 pandemic (Mar. 17 to June 15, 2020) on cancer diagnoses, stage at diagnosis and 1-year survival in Alberta.

METHODS

We included new diagnoses of the 10 most prevalent cancer types from Jan. 1, 2018, to Dec. 31, 2020. We followed patients up to Dec. 31, 2021. We used interrupted time series analysis to examine the impact of the first COVID-19-related state of emergency in Alberta on the number of cancer diagnoses. We used multivariable Cox regression to compare 1-year survival of the patients who received a diagnosis during 2020 after the state of emergency with those who received a diagnosis during 2018 and 2019. We also performed stage-specific analyses.

RESULTS

We observed significant reductions in diagnoses of breast cancer (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.76), prostate cancer (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.56-0.73) and colorectal cancer (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.56- 0.74) and melanoma (IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.47-0.69) during the state of emergency period compared with the period before it. These decreases largely occurred among early-stage rather than late-stage diagnoses. Patients who received a diagnosis of colorectal cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and uterine cancer in 2020 had lower 1-year survival than those diagnosed in 2018; no other cancer sites had lower survival.

INTERPRETATION

The results from our analyses suggest that health care disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta considerably affected cancer outcomes. Given that the largest impact was observed among early-stage cancers and those with organized screening programs, additional system capacity may be needed to mitigate future impact.

Probability of lung cancer in a population excluded from screening due to low PLCOM2012 risk

BACKGROUND

Several randomized trials demonstrated have reduced lung cancer mortality with screening using computed tomography. However, there remains debate about the optimal approach for determining screening eligibility, and no evidence yet exists reporting lung cancer rates in those excluded from screening due to too low of a personalized risk.

METHODS

This study was based on the Alberta Lung Cancer Screening Study, which received 1737 applicants and enrolled 850 based on the NLST criteria or a PLCO_M2012 risk ≥ 1.5%. We excluded 887 applicants who were interested in screening but deemed ineligible. We report lung cancer rates in the screened and unscreened cohorts.

RESULTS

We observed 30 and 8 lung cancers in the screened and unscreened groups, respectively. Only 1 of 8 lung cancers were among those considered too low risk (0.14%), while the remaining 7 were among those excluded for other reasons, including symptoms requiring more immediate workup. No NLST eligible but PLCO risk < 1.5% screened individual had a lung cancer detected as part of the study, so that of all applicants contacting the program with risk estimates less than 1.5%, only 1/857 (0.12%) developed lung cancer.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that a risk-based approach for screening eligibility is unlikely to miss many lung cancers.

Understanding Real-World Treatment Patterns and Clinical Outcomes among Metastatic Melanoma Patients in Alberta, Canada

Immunotherapy and targeted therapies have been shown to considerably improve long-term survival outcomes in metastatic melanoma patients. Real-world evidence on the uptake of novel therapies and outcomes for this patient population in Canada are limited. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all metastatic melanoma patients diagnosed in Alberta, Canada (2015-2018) using electronic medical records and administrative data. Information on BRAF testing for patients diagnosed in 2017 or 2018 was obtained through chart abstraction. In total, 434 metastatic melanoma patients were included, of which 110 (25.3%) were de novo metastatic cases. The median age at diagnosis was 66 years (IQR: 57-76) and 70.0% were men. BRAF testing was completed for the majority of patients (88.7%). Among all patients, 60.4%, 19.1%, and 6.0% initiated first-line, second-line, and third-line systemic therapy. The most common therapies were anti-PD-1 and targeted therapies. The two-year survival probability from first-line therapy, second-line therapy, and third-line therapy was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.44-0.57), 0.26 (95% CI: 0.17-0.40), and 0.14 (95% CI: 0.40-0.46), respectively. In the first-line setting, survival was highest for patients that received ipilimumab or ipilimumab plus nivolumab, while targeted therapy had the highest survival in the second-line setting. This study indicates that novel therapies improve survival in the real world but a considerable proportion of patients do not receive treatment with systemic therapy.

Data Challenges for Externally Controlled Trials: Viewpoint

The preferred evidence of a large randomized controlled trial is difficult to adopt in scenarios, such as rare conditions or clinical subgroups with high unmet needs, and evidence from external sources, including real-world data, is being increasingly considered by decision makers. Real-world data originate from many sources, and identifying suitable real-world data that can be used to contextualize a single-arm trial, as an external control arm, has several challenges. In this viewpoint article, we provide an overview of the technical challenges raised by regulatory and health reimbursement agencies when evaluating comparative efficacy, such as identification, outcome, and time selection challenges. By breaking down these challenges, we provide practical solutions for researchers to consider through the approaches of detailed planning, collection, and record linkage to analyze external data for comparative efficacy.

Performance of the fecal immunochemical test for colorectal cancer and advanced neoplasia in individuals under age 50

The increased demand for colonoscopy combined with increased incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among younger populations presents a need to determine FIT performance among individuals in this age group. We conducted a systematic review to assess test performance characteristics of FIT in detecting CRC and advanced neoplasia in younger age populations. A search through December 2022 identified published articles assessing the sensitivity and specificity of FIT for advanced neoplasia or CRC among populations under age 50. Following the search, 3 studies were included in the systematic review. Sensitivity to detect advanced neoplasia ranged from 0.19 to 0.36 and specificity between 0.94 and 0.97 and the overall sensitivity and specificity were 0.23 (0.17-0.30) and 0.96 (0.94-0.98), respectively. Two studies that assessed these metrics in multiple age categories found similar sensitivity and specificity across all age groups 30-49. Sensitivity and specificity to detect CRC was assessed in one study and found no significant differences by age groups. These results suggest that FIT performance may be lower for younger individuals compared to those typically screened for CRC. However, there were few studies available for analysis. Given increasing recommendations to expand screening in younger age groups, more research is needed to determine whether FIT is an adequate screening tool in this population.

Outcomes and Healthcare Utilization Among New Persistent Opioid Users and Nonopioid Users After Curative-intent Surgery for Cancer

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to compare the health outcomes and resource use of cancer patients who were new persistent opioid users with those who were not, after undergoing curative intent surgery for cancer.

BACKGROUND

Little is known about long-term health outcomes (overdose, mortality) and resource utilization of new persistent opioid users among cancer patients undergoing curative-intent surgery.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included all adults with a diagnosis of solid cancers who underwent curative-intent surgery during the study period (2011-2015) in Alberta, Canada and were opioid-naïve before surgery, with a follow-up period until December 31, 2019. The key exposure, "new persistent opioid user," was defined as a patient who was opioid-naive before surgery and subsequently filled at least 1 opioid prescription between 60 and 180 days after surgery. The primary outcome was opioid overdose that occurred within 3 years of surgery. All-cause death, noncancer caused death, and department visit (yes vs. no), and hospitalization (yes vs. no) in the follow-up periods were also included as outcomes.

RESULTS

In total, 19,219 patients underwent curative intent surgery with a median follow-up of 47 months, of whom 1530 (8.0%) were identified as postoperative new persistent opioid users. In total, 101 (0.5%) patients experienced opioid overdose within 3 years of surgery. Compared with nonopioid users, new persistent opioid users experienced a higher rate of opioid overdose (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.44-3.9) within 3 years of surgery. New persistent opioid use was also associated with a greater likelihood of being hospitalized (OR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.76-2.33) and visiting an emergency room (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.62-2.06) in the first year after surgery, and a higher overall (HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.1-1.49) and noncancer caused mortality (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.12-1.58), when compared with nonopioid users.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative new persistent opioid use among cancer patients undergoing curative-intent surgery is associated with subsequent opioid overdose, worse survival, and more health resource utilization.

The Association between Early-Onset Diagnosis and Clinical Outcomes in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Early-onset diagnosis, defined by age <40 years, has historically been associated with inferior outcomes in breast cancer. Recent evidence suggests that this association is modified by molecular subtype. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature to synthesize evidence on the association between early-onset diagnosis and clinical outcomes in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Studies comparing the risk of clinical outcomes in non-metastatic TNBC between early-onset patients and later-onset patients (≥40 years) were queried in Medline and EMBASE from inception to February 2023. Separate meta-analyses were performed for breast cancer specific survival (BCSS), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS), locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS), distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS), and pathological complete response (pCR). In total, 7581 unique records were identified, and 36 studies satisfied inclusion criteria. The pooled risk of any recurrence was significantly greater in early-onset patients compared to later-onset patients. Better BCSS and OS were observed in early-onset patients relative to later-onset patients aged >60 years. The pooled odds of achieving pCR were significantly higher in early-onset patients. Future studies should evaluate the role of locoregional management of TNBC and the implementation of novel therapies such as PARP inhibitors in real-world settings, and whether they improve outcomes.

Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality in Canada: The OncoSim All Cancers Model

Using the OncoSim All Cancers Model, we estimated the annual cancer incidence, mortality and cancer management costs in Canada from 2020 to 2040. Incidence for each cancer type was estimated from logistic regression analyses of the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2017), with province/territory, sex, five-year age groups and year as covariates. Deaths were estimated by sex and tumour site for cancers diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 (deaths to the end of 2017). The total cost of a cancer type was the sum of costs for individuals across four phases of cancer care. The projections presented in this study were generated based on a simulation of 32 million cases. The OncoSim All Cancers Model projects a 40% increase in the overall number of incident cancer cases from 2020 to 2040. The number of the four most commonly diagnosed cancers in Canada (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate) are projected to increase annually. The overall number of cancer deaths is projected to increase by 44% from 2020 to 2040. More cancer deaths are projected in males than in females. The age-standardized mortality rate is expected to remain relatively stable over time. Overall cancer management costs are projected to increase from $20.6B in 2020 to $31.4B in 2040. Due mainly to an aging population and population growth in Canada, we estimate that cancer incidence, mortality and cancer management costs will increase considerably between 2020 and 2040. These results highlight the importance of planning for increasing investment and capacity in cancer control.

Patient-Reported Symptom Burden and Supportive Care Needs of Patients With Stage II-III Colorectal Cancer During and After Adjuvant Systemic Treatment: A Real-World Evidence Study

PURPOSE

Patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) experience a range of physical and psychologic symptoms, and supportive care needs throughout the illness trajectory. We used patient-reported outcomes and administrative health data to describe symptom burden and supportive care needs during and after adjuvant treatment and determine factors associated with changes to symptom burden.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based cohort study of patients who were newly diagnosed with stage II-III CRC in Alberta, Canada, between January 1, 2016, and January 31, 2019. Adults age 18 years or older who completed a patient-reported outcomes survey (Edmonton Symptom Assessment System) and supportive care needs (Canadian Problem Checklist) within 3 months after starting adjuvant treatment (during treatment) and > 7 months after starting treatment (after treatment) were included. Changes to symptom severity were stratified as stable, improved, or deteriorated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with these changes.

RESULTS

We included 303 patients (median age 60 years, 62% male, 84.5% stage III, 51.2% rectal v colon). Prevalent symptoms included tiredness (80.5%), pain (50.8%), and poor well-being (50%) during treatment, and tiredness (71.3%), pain (44.2%), and poor well-being (62.1%) after treatment. The results were heterogeneous with respect to improvements, stability, or deterioration. Pain worsened for 25% of the cohort, tiredness for 28%, and depression, anxiety, and well-being for 21%, 22%, and 31%, respectively. Deterioration of some symptoms was associated with older age, stage II, comorbidities, rural setting, and higher income.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated symptom severity was generally low and most symptoms remained stable or improved after treatment. Particular groups of patients were at greater risk for more severe and/or more persistent symptoms. Ongoing assessments and interventions to address physical and psychologic symptoms, and supportive care needs in patients with CRC during and after treatment are needed.

Practice patterns and predictors of treatment intensification in patients with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer

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Background: In recent years, treatment intensification beyond androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with several novel therapies have shown survival benefit in patients with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC). Given the rapidly evolving landscape in mCSPC treatment, there is a need to better understand how treatment strategies fit in real-world clinical practice and are combined/sequenced with other available therapies. Methods: Using electronic medical records and administrative data, a population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted. Patients aged ≥18 years of age who were newly diagnosed with de novo mCSPC and initiated ADT post-diagnosis between 2010 to 2020 in Alberta, Canada, were included. Treatment intensification was defined as the receipt of apalutamide, abiraterone acetate, enzalutamide, or chemotherapy (e.g. docetaxel) within 180 days of ADT initiation. Results: A total of 2,515 de novo mCSPC were identified during study period with 2,098 (83%) patients initiating ADT post-diagnosis. Of those, 525 (25%) received intensification beyond ADT. The percentage of patients who were intensified was 3% in 2010-2013 and gradually increased to 67% in 2020. Between 2014-2017, docetaxel was the most common therapy for intensification, but its use decreased considerably in 2018-2020 with abiraterone acetate, apalutamide and enzalutamide becoming increasingly available in the mCSPC setting. Upon progression, 46% and 22% in the intensified group versus 38% and 13% in the ADT-alone group initiated one and two-lines of subsequent therapies respectively. Abiraterone acetate and enzalutamide were the most common subsequent therapy for both the intensified (32% and 31% respectively) and the ADT-alone (56% and 38% respectively) groups. Docetaxel (24%) was used as subsequent therapy among mCSPC patients who were intensified with oral systemic agents. In multivariable logistic regression analyses of patients diagnosed in 2014-2020, significant predictors of intensification were younger age at diagnosis, lower Charlson comorbidity index, greater number of metastatic sites, shorter time to ADT initiation, referral to a specialists/cancer centres, surgery or radiation prior to ADT, and more recent year of diagnosis (all p<0.05). Conclusions: In Alberta, Canada, there has been a considerable increase in the utilization of ADT intensification therapies that correspond with the timing of clinical trial data and approvals of novel agents. Early referral to specialists/cancer centres is warranted to intensify mCSPC treatment beyond ADT and to improve patients’ outcomes. [Table: see text]

Understanding Characteristics, Treatment Patterns, and Clinical Outcomes for Individuals with Advanced or Recurrent Endometrial Cancer in Alberta, Canada: A Retrospective, Population-Based Cohort Study

Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence has increased in recent decades. However, population-based outcomes data are limited. In this retrospective cohort study, we examined characteristics, treatment patterns, and clinical outcomes, including time to next treatment (TNNT) and overall survival (OS), among advanced/recurrent (A/R) EC patients between 2010 and 2018 in Alberta, Canada. Kaplan-Meier statistics evaluated TTNT and OS, stratified by patient (A/R) and treatment. A total of 1053 patients were included: 620 (58.9%) advanced and 433 (41.1%) recurrent. A total of 713 (67.7%) patients received first-line therapy: 466 (75.2%) advanced and 247 (57.0%) recurrent. Platinum-based chemotherapy (PBCT) was the most common first-line regimen (overall: 78.6%; advanced: 96.1%; recurrent: 45.3%). The median TTNT and OS from first-line therapy were 19.9 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.5-23.5) and 35.9 months (95% CI: 31.5-53.5), respectively. Following first-line PBCT, the median OS from second-line chemotherapy (N = 187) was 10.4 months (95% CI: 8.9-13.3) and higher for those rechallenged with PBCT (N = 72; 38.5%) versus no rechallenge (N = 115; 61.5%) (13.3 months [95% CI: 11.2-20.9] vs. 6.4 months [95% CI: 4.6-10.4; p < 0.001]). The findings highlight poor outcomes in A/R EC, particularly following first-line therapy, and that additional tolerable therapeutic options are needed to improve patient outcomes.

Selection Bias in Real-World Data Studies Used to Support Health Technology Assessments: A Case Study in Metastatic Cancer

Real-world evidence has been increasingly used to support evaluations of emerging therapies. These investigations are often conducted in settings that may not be representative of the underlying population. The purpose of this investigation was to empirically quantify the magnitude of this selection bias. Individuals diagnosed with solid metastatic cancer in Alberta, Canada, between 2010-2019 were identified using the provincial cancer registry for 13 common metastatic sites. Two outcomes used to support oncology reimbursement decisions were examined: the proportion of individuals who initiated systemic therapy and median overall survival (OS). These outcomes were assessed in the entire population and in a subset of individuals who were referred to a medical oncologist. Among the 23,152 individuals in the entire population, 40.8% (95% CI: 40.2-41.4) initiated systemic therapy, and the median OS from diagnosis was 5.4 months (95% CI: 5.3-5.6). Among those who were referred to a medical oncologist (n = 13,372; 57.8%), 67.4% (95% CI: 66.6-68.2) initiated systemic therapy, and the median OS from diagnosis was 11.2 months (95% CI: 10.9-11.5). The magnitude of bias varied by cancer site where lower referral rates were associated with greater bias. Non-referral is an important source of selection bias in real-world investigations. Studies that rely on limited-catchment real-world data should be interpreted with caution, particularly in metastatic cancer settings.

Evaluating Multiple Next-Generation Sequencing-Derived Tumor Features to Accurately Predict DNA Mismatch Repair Status

Identifying tumor DNA mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR) is important for precision medicine. Tumor features, individually and in combination, derived from whole-exome sequenced (WES) colorectal cancers (CRCs) and panel-sequenced CRCs, endometrial cancers (ECs), and sebaceous skin tumors (SSTs) were assessed for their accuracy in detecting dMMR. CRCs (n = 300) with WES, where mismatch repair status was determined by immunohistochemistry, were assessed for microsatellite instability (MSMuTect, MANTIS, MSIseq, and MSISensor), Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer tumor mutational signatures, and somatic mutation counts. A 10-fold cross-validation approach (100 repeats) evaluated the dMMR prediction accuracy for i) individual features, ii) Lasso statistical model, and iii) an additive feature combination approach. Panel-sequenced tumors (29 CRCs, 22 ECs, and 20 SSTs) were assessed for the top performing dMMR predicting features/models using these three approaches. For WES CRCs, 10 features provided >80% dMMR prediction accuracy, with MSMuTect, MSIseq, and MANTIS achieving ≥99% accuracy. The Lasso model achieved 98.3% accuracy. The additive feature approach, with three or more of six of MSMuTect, MANTIS, MSIseq, MSISensor, insertion-deletion count, or tumor mutational signature small insertion/deletion 2 + small insertion/deletion 7 achieved 99.7% accuracy. For the panel-sequenced tumors, the additive feature combination approach of three or more of six achieved accuracies of 100%, 95.5%, and 100% for CRCs, ECs, and SSTs, respectively. The microsatellite instability calling tools performed well in WES CRCs; however, an approach combining tumor features may improve dMMR prediction in both WES and panel-sequenced data across tissue types.

Real-world use of biologics and its association with outcomes in RAS wild-type (WT) left-sided metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) in Canada

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Background: The use of biologics in combination with chemotherapy early in the course of treatment in mCRC improves outcomes, but whether this approach is uniformly adopted in clinical practice is unclear. This study aims to describe biomarker testing, treatment patterns, and survival of RAS WT, left-sided mCRC patients in a real-world population. Methods: We performed deterministic linkages with population-based data sources, including the cancer registry, pharmacy data, electronic medical records, and vital statistics to identify all patients who were diagnosed with RAS WT, left-sided mCRC, and treated with first-line (1L) combination systemic therapy from 2014 to 2019 in Alberta, Canada. Patients were followed until December 31, 2020. Results: Of 2,721 patients with left-sided mCRC, 1,375 were referred and received systemic therapy, 977 underwent RAS testing prior to or within 30 days of initiating 1L treatment, and 420 were found to be RAS WT. Among them, 320 were treated with 1L combination systemic therapy: FOLFOX/CAPOX/FOLFIRI (n=204), panitumumab (pani) with doublet chemotherapy (n=64), or bevacizumab (bev) with doublet chemotherapy (n=52). The interval from diagnosis to RAS test results was 38 (IQR 24-61) days. Only 207 (65%) and 125 (39%) of the 320 1L-treated patients reached 2L and 3L therapy, respectively. Median overall survival based on the different 1L regimens are summarized. Conclusions: Many real-world patients with mCRC were not exposed to biologics as part of their front-line treatment. There is a need to enhance RAS testing in 1L as 29% of patients were not tested, despite recommendations from guidelines. Because attrition across lines of therapy is high in mCRC, the opportunity to receive and benefit from biologics in later lines of therapy may be importantly reduced. [Table: see text]

Lung Immune Therapy Evaluation (LITE) Risk, a Novel Prognostic Model for Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Immune Checkpoint Blockade

INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionized non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to identify baseline characteristics, that are prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with NSCLC treated with ICI monotherapy, in order to derive the Lung Immune Therapy Evaluation (LITE) risk, a prognostic model.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Multi-center observational cohort study of patients with advanced NSCLC that received ≥1 dose of ICI monotherapy. The training set (n=342) consisted of patients with NSCLC who received first line ICI. The test set (n=153) used for external validation was a discrete cohort of patients who received second line ICI. 20 candidate prognostic factors were examined. Penalized Cox regression was used for variable selection. Multiple imputation was used to address missingness.

RESULTS

Three baseline characteristics populated the final model: ECOG (0, 1 or ≥2), lactate dehydrogenase>upper limit of normal, and derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio ≥3. Patients were parsed into 3 risk groups; favorable (n=146, risk score 0-1), intermediate (n=101, risk score 2) and poor (n=95, risk score ≥3). The c-statistic of the training cohort was 0.702 and 0.694 after bootstrapping. The test cohort c-statistic was 0.664. The median OS for favorable, intermediate and poor LITE risk were; 28.3 months, 9.1 months and 2.1 months respectively. Improving LITE risk group was associated with improved OS, intermediate vs favorable HR 2.08 (95%CI 1.46-2.97, P < .001); poor vs favorable HR 5.21 (95%CI 3.69-7.34, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

A simple prognostic model, utilizing accessible clinical data, can discriminate survival outcomes in patients with advanced NSCLC.

The impact of population-based EGFR testing in non-squamous metastatic non-small cell lung cancer in Alberta, Canada

OBJECTIVES

While Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors have been shown to be effective in phase III randomized trials, the value of targeted therapies has been challenging to evaluate at the population-level. We examined the impact of population-level EGFR testing and treatment on survival outcomes among non-squamous metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Real-world, population-level data were collected from all de novo non-squamous metastatic NSCLC patients in Alberta, Canada from 2004 to 2020. EGFR testing data were collected through Alberta Precision Laboratories. Differences in survival rates and overall survival (OS) pre (2004-2012) and post initiation (post) (2013-2019) testing periods were evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. The impact of testing and subsequent treatment was evaluated using multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards models.

RESULTS

In total, 4,578 non-squamous metastatic NSCLC patients were diagnosed pre-EGFR testing and 4,457 patients were diagnosed post-EGFR testing (2013-2019). Among patients diagnosed in the pre-EGFR testing period, the 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year survival probabilities were 0.39 (95 % CI: 0.38-0.41), 0.22 (95 % CI: 0.21-0.23), and 0.09 (95 % CI: 0.08-0.10), while the survival probabilities for patients diagnosed in the post-EGFR testing period were 0.45 (95 % CI: 0.43-0.46), 0.29 (95 % CI: 0.27-0.30), and 0.16 (95 % CI: 0.15-0.17), respectively. After adjusting for baseline patient and clinical characteristics, OS in the post-EGFR period was significantly improved compared to the pre-EGFR period (HR: 0.81; 95 % CI: 0.78-0.85). Among patients who were treated with systemic therapy, those tested for an EGFR mutation had significantly greater survival than patients who were not tested HR of 0.81 (95 % CI: 0.70-0.95).

CONCLUSION

These results show the considerable impact of population-based molecular testing and subsequent targeted therapies on survival among metastatic NSCLC patients. The estimates here can be used in future studies to evaluate the population-level cost-effectiveness of testing and treatment.

Real-world treatment patterns, clinical outcomes, and health care resource utilization in advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: The incidence of advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in developed countries and the prognosis of advanced HCC remains poor. Real-world evidence of treatment patterns and outcomes can highlight the unmet clinical need. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study of patients with advanced unresectable HCC diagnosed in Alberta, Canada (2008-2018) using electronic medical records and administrative claims data. A chart review was conducted on patients treated with systemic therapy to capture additional information related to treatment. RESULTS: A total of 1,297 advanced HCC patients were included of whom 555 (42.8%) were recurrent cases and the remainder were unresectable at diagnosis. Median age at diagnosis was 64 (range 21-94) years and 82.1% were men. Only 274 patients (21.1%) received first-line systemic therapy and, of those, 32 patients (11.7%) initiated second-line therapy. Nearly all of the patients received sorafenib (>96.4%) in first-line, and these patients had considerably higher median survival (12.23 months; 95% CI 10.72-14.10) compared with patients not treated with systemic therapy (2.66 months; 95% CI 2.33-3.12; log-rank p <0.001). Among patients treated with systemic therapy, overall survival was higher for recurrent cases, patients with Child-Pugh A functional status, and patients with HCV or multiple known HCC risk factors (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In a Canadian real-world setting, patients who received systemic therapy had greater survival than those who did not, but outcomes were universally poor. These results underscore the need for effective front-line therapeutic options.

Understanding real-world treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in AL amyloidosis patients diagnosed in Canada: A population-based cohort study

Amyloid light chain (AL) amyloidosis is a rare and chronic bone marrow disorder. Existing claims data can be used to help understand the real-world treatment patterns and outcomes of this patient population. Various population-based administrative databases in Alberta, Canada were queried from 2010 to mid-2019 to identify cases of AL amyloidosis. Baseline patient and disease characteristics, sequencing of pharmacologic therapies, overall survival, and healthcare resource utilization were evaluated. A total of 215 individuals with AL amyloidosis were included. Among patients diagnosed between 2012 and 2019, 149 (85.1%) initiated first-line, 67 (38.3%) initiated second-line, 22 (12.6%) initiated third-line, and 11 (6.3%) initiated fourth-line systemic therapy. In the first-line setting, 99/149 (66.4%) received bortezomib, cyclophosphamide, and dexamethasone (CyBorD) and 21/149 (14.1%) received another bortezomib-based regimen. Survival from time of diagnosis improved over time, with a median overall survival of 25.8 months (95% CI: 9.8, 57.1) for individuals diagnosed in 2010-2011 versus 52.1 months (95% CI: 25.6, NA) for those diagnosed in 2012-2019. Despite this improvement, the proportion of individuals diagnosed in 2012-2019 who survived beyond five-years remained low (5-year survival: 48.4%; 95% CI: 40.9, 57.2) which highlights an unmet need for more efficacious therapies.

Understanding Treatment Patterns and Outcomes among Patients with De Novo Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer: A Population-Level Retrospective Analysis from Alberta, Canada

Despite a high disease burden, real-world data on treatment patterns in patients with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma (la/mUC) in Canada are limited. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study describes treatment patterns and survival in a population of patients with de novo unresectable la/mUC from Alberta, Canada, diagnosed between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019, followed until mid-2020. The outcomes of interest were systemic therapy treatment patterns and overall survival (OS). Of 206 patients, most (65.0%, n = 134) did not receive any systemic therapies. Of 72 patients (35.0%) who received first-line systemic therapy, the median duration of treatment was 2.8 months (IQR 3.3). Thirty-five patients (48.6% of those who received first-line therapy) received subsequent second-line therapy, for a median of 3.0 months (IQR 3.3). In all patients (n = 206), the median OS from diagnosis was 5.3 months (95% CI, 4.5-7.0). In patients who received treatment, the median OS from the initiation of first-line and second-line systemic therapy was 9.1 (6.4-11.6) and 4.6 months (3.9-19.2), respectively. The majority of patients did not receive first-line systemic therapy, and, in those who did, survival outcomes were poor. This study highlights the significant unmet need for safe and efficacious therapies for patients with la/mUC in Canada.

The association between medical cannabis and prescription opioid medication use in patients with early-stage cancer: A population-based study

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Background: Medical cannabis (MC) and prescription opioid medication (POM) use is common among cancer patients. There is conflicting evidence on the association of cannabis with POM as to whether cannabis can help decrease/ cease opioid use. In this population-based study, we examine the association between MC authorization and cessation or reduction in POM use among patients with early stage cancer. Methods: This is a retrospective, population-based study of patients with early stage (stage I-III) cancer diagnosed between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2018 in the province of Alberta, Canada. Cases were identified from the Alberta Cancer Registry (ACR) and linked to the provincial pharmacy information network (PIN) and the database from the College of Physician and Surgeons of Alberta (CPSA). Patient and treatment characteristic were used to identify a comparable non-MC group with prior POM use via probabilistic modelling. Descriptive statistics were used to describe differences between patients with and without a MC authorization. Modified Poisson regression was used to compare the likelihood of opioid cessation and reduction among groups. Results: We identified 8,801 patients of whom 326 (3.7%) had a MC authorization. Patients with a MC authorization were younger, had higher stage disease, underwent radiation and/or systemic therapy and had a higher total oral morphine equivalent (OME) use at baseline (p < 0.01). Patients with a MC authorization were less likely to cease POM at 9-12 months post MC authorization (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.70), and less likely to reduce their POM dose by 25% (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.85) and 50%. (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.67-0.79). Conclusions: Patients with early stage, non-metastatic cancer with a MC authorization have higher rates of baseline POM use and are less likely to cease or reduce their POM use up to 1 year after MC authorization. Further study is required to understand the harms of concomitant MC and POM use and the impact on survivorship care.

Prevalence, Treatment Patterns, and Outcomes of Individuals with EGFR Positive Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in a Canadian Real-World Setting: A Comparison of Exon 19 Deletion, L858R, and Exon 20 Insertion EGFR Mutation Carriers

Real-world evidence surrounding EGFR positive NSCLC patients in Canada is limited. Administrative databases in Alberta, Canada were used to evaluate EGFR testing and mutation prevalence in de novo metastatic NSCLC, as well as the characteristics, treatment patterns, and outcomes of individuals with Exon 19, L858R and Exon20ins mutations. Between 2013-2019, 2974 individuals underwent EGFR testing, of which 451 (15.2%) were EGFR positive. Among EGFR positive individuals, 221 (49.0%) had an Exon 19 mutation, 159 (35.3%) had an L858R mutation, and 18 (4%) had an Exon20ins mutation. The proportion of individuals who initiated 1L systemic therapy was 89.1% for Exon19, 85.5% for L858R, and 72.2% for Exon20ins carriers. The primary front-line systemic therapy was gefitinib or afatinib monotherapy for individuals with Exon 19 (93.4%) and L858R (94.1%) mutations versus platinum combination therapy for individuals with Exon20ins mutations (61.5%). The Exon20ins cohort had worse median overall survival from initiation of 1L systemic therapy (10.5 months [95% CI: 8.0-not estimable]) than the Exon19 (20.6 months [95% CI: 18.4-24.9]), and L858R cohorts (19.1 months [95% CI: 14.5-23.1]). These findings highlight that Exon20ins mutations represent a rare subset of NSCLC in which treatment options are limited and survival outcomes are worse relative to individuals with more common types of EGFR mutations.

Long-term Use of Hormone Replacement Therapy is Associated With a Lower Risk of Developing High-risk Serrated Polyps in Women

GOALS/BACKGROUND

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and parity have been suggested protective factors against the development of colorectal polyps. However, there are a limited number of studies that have examined the relationship of these factors with high-risk adenomatous polyps (HRAP) or high-risk serrated polyps (HRSP), which may have different causes and therefore implications for screening programs.

STUDY

Data from a cross-sectional study of 1384 women undergoing screening-related colonoscopy between 2008 and 2016 were analyzed. Modified Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to determine the relative risk of developing adenomatous polyps, serrated polyps, HRAPs, and HRSPs associated with pregnancy, menopausal status, and the use of HRT (duration and type).

RESULTS

Women that used HRT for ≥6 years were at a significantly lower risk of developing a HRSP [risk ratios (RR): 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29-0.97]. Irrespective of the duration of use, the use of HRT that included progesterone alone or with estrogen was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing a HRSP (RR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30-0.95). The use HRT with progesterone for ≥6 years was associated with a nonsignificant lower risk of developing a HRSP (RR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.17-1.04). None of the reproductive factors assessed or HRT were associated with the development of adenomatous polyps or HRAPs.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggests that the long-term use of HRT, and therapies that include progesterone are associated with a lower risk of developing HRSPs. These results could have implications for targeted screening for serrated polyps among women.

The efficacy of chemopreventive agents on the incidence of colorectal adenomas: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cancer and third leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Use of chemopreventive agents (CPAs) to reduce the incidence of precursor colorectal adenomas could lower the future burden of CRC. Many classes of potential CPAs have been investigated. To identify the most effective CPAs, we conducted a systematic review and a network meta-analysis (NMA). An electronic search was performed through August 2020 to identify all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the efficacy of CPAs in reducing the incidence of colorectal adenomas at the time of surveillance colonoscopy among patients who had previously undergone polypectomy during an index colonoscopy. In total, 33 RCTs were included in the NMA, which was conducted under a Bayesian inference framework. Random effects models were used with adjustment for follow-up length and control group event rates to yield relative risks (RRs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Our full network consisted of 13 interventions in addition to a placebo arm. Of 20,925 included patients, 7766 had an adenoma. Compared to placebo, the combination of difluoromethylornithine (DFMO) + Sulindac (RR 0.24, CrI 0.10-0.55) demonstrated a protective effect, while aspirin had a RR of 0.77 (CrI 0.60-1.00), celecoxib 800 mg had a RR of 0.56 (CrI 0.31-1.01) and metformin had a RR of 0.56 (CrI 0.22-1.39). Our results suggest that select CPAs may be efficacious in preventing the development of adenomas. Further studies are needed to identify those patients most likely to benefit and the minimum effective dosages of CPAs.