Optimum breeding strategies using genomic selection for hybrid breeding in wheat, maize, rye, barley, rice and triticale

Integrating genome-wide association study into genomic selection for the prediction of agronomic traits in rice (Oryza sativa L.)

Accurately identifying varieties with targeted agronomic traits was thought to contribute to genetic selection and accelerate rice breeding progress. Genomic selection (GS) is a promising technique that uses markers covering the whole genome to predict the genomic-estimated breeding values (GEBV), with the ability to select before phenotypes are measured. To choose the appropriate GS models for breeding work, we analyzed the predictability of nine agronomic traits measured from a population of 459 diverse rice varieties. By the comparison of eight representative GS models, we found that the prediction accuracies ranged from 0.407 to 0.896, with reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) having the highest predictive ability in most traits. Further results demonstrated the predictivity of GS is altered by several factors. Moreover, we assessed the method of integrating genome-wide association study (GWAS) into various GS models. The predictabilities of GS combined peak-associated markers generated from six different GWAS models were significantly different; a recommendation of Mixed Linear Model (MLM)-RKHS was given for the GWAS-GS-integrated prediction. Finally, based on the above result, we experimented with applying the P-values obtained from optimal GWAS models into ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (rrBLUP), which benefited the low predictive traits in rice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-023-01423-y.

Optimal implementation of genomic selection in clone breeding programs-Exemplified in potato: I. Effect of selection strategy, implementation stage, and selection intensity on short-term genetic gain

Genomic selection (GS) is used in many animal and plant breeding programs to enhance genetic gain for complex traits. However, its optimal integration in clone breeding programs, for example potato, that up to now relied on phenotypic selection (PS) requires further research. In this study, we performed computer simulations based on an empirical genomic dataset of tetraploid potato to (i) investigate under a fixed budget how the weight of GS relative to PS, the stage of implementing GS, the correlation between an auxiliary trait and the target trait, the variance components, and the prediction accuracy affect the genetic gain of the target trait, (ii) determine the optimal allocation of resources maximizing the genetic gain of the target trait, and (iii) make recommendations to breeders how to implement GS in clone and especially potato breeding programs. In our simulation results, any selection strategy involving GS had a higher short-term genetic gain for the target trait than Standard-PS. In addition, we showed that implementing GS in consecutive selection stages can largely enhance short-term genetic gain and recommend the breeders to implement GS at single hills and A clone stages. Furthermore, we observed for selection strategies involving GS that the optimal allocation of resources maximizing the genetic gain of the target trait differed considerably from those typically used in potato breeding programs and, thus, require the adjustment of the selection and phenotyping intensities. The trends are described in our study. Therefore, our study provides new insight for breeders regarding how to optimally implement GS in a commercial potato breeding program to improve the short-term genetic gain for their target trait.

Genomic prediction of optimal cross combinations to accelerate genetic improvement of soybean (Glycine max)

Improving yield is a primary soybean breeding goal, as yield is the main determinant of soybean's profitability. Within the breeding process, selection of cross combinations is one of most important elements. Cross prediction will assist soybean breeders in identifying the best cross combinations among parental genotypes prior to crossing, increasing genetic gain and breeding efficiency. In this study optimal cross selection methods were created and applied in soybean and validated using historical data from the University of Georgia soybean breeding program, under multiple training set compositions and marker densities utilizing multiple genomic selection models for marker evaluation. Plant materials consisted of 702 advanced breeding lines evaluated in multiple environments and genotyped using SoySNP6k BeadChips. An additional marker set, the SoySNP3k marker set, was tested in this study as well. Optimal cross selection methods were used to predict the yield of 42 previously made crosses and compared to the performance of the cross's offspring in replicated field trials. The best prediction accuracy was obtained when using Extended Genomic BLUP with the SoySNP6k marker set, consisting of 3,762 polymorphic markers, with an accuracy of 0.56 with a training set maximally related to the crosses predicted and 0.4 in a training set with minimized relatedness to predicted crosses. Prediction accuracy was most significantly impacted by training set relatedness to the predicted crosses, marker density, and the genomic model used to predict marker effects. The usefulness criterion selected had an impact on prediction accuracy within training sets with low relatedness to the crosses predicted. Optimal cross prediction provides a useful method that assists plant breeders in selecting crosses in soybean breeding.

Genomic prediction and selection response for grain yield in safflower

In plant breeding programs, multiple traits are recorded in each trial, and the traits are often correlated. Correlated traits can be incorporated into genomic selection models, especially for traits with low heritability, to improve prediction accuracy. In this study, we investigated the genetic correlation between important agronomic traits in safflower. We observed the moderate genetic correlations between grain yield (GY) and plant height (PH, 0.272–0.531), and low correlations between grain yield and days to flowering (DF, −0.157–0.201). A 4%–20% prediction accuracy improvement for grain yield was achieved when plant height was included in both training and validation sets with multivariate models. We further explored the selection responses for grain yield by selecting the top 20% of lines based on different selection indices. Selection responses for grain yield varied across sites. Simultaneous selection for grain yield and seed oil content (OL) showed positive gains across all sites with equal weights for both grain yield and oil content. Combining g×E interaction into genomic selection (GS) led to more balanced selection responses across sites. In conclusion, genomic selection is a valuable breeding tool for breeding high grain yield, oil content, and highly adaptable safflower varieties.

Utilization of Genotyping-by-Sequencing (GBS) for Rice Pre-Breeding and Improvement: A Review

Molecular markers play a crucial role in the improvement of rice. To benefit from these markers, genotyping is carried out to identify the differences at a specific position in the genome of individuals. The advances in sequencing technologies have led to the development of different genotyping techniques such as genotyping-by-sequencing. Unlike PCR-fragment-based genotyping, genotyping-by-sequencing has enabled the parallel sequencing and genotyping of hundreds of samples in a single run, making it more cost-effective. Currently, GBS is being used in several pre-breeding programs of rice to identify beneficial genes and QTL from different rice genetic resources. In this review, we present the current advances in the utilization of genotyping-by-sequencing for the development of rice pre-breeding materials and the improvement of existing rice cultivars. The challenges and perspectives of using this approach are also highlighted.

Optimizing self-pollinated crop breeding employing genomic selection: From schemes to updating training sets

Long-term breeding schemes using genomic selection (GS) can boost the response to selection per year. Although several studies have shown that GS delivers a higher response to selection, only a few analyze which stage GS produces better results and how to update the training population to maintain prediction accuracy. We used stochastic simulation to compare five GS breeding schemes in a self-pollinated long-term breeding program. Also, we evaluated four strategies, using distinct methods and sizes, to update the training set. Finally, regarding breeding schemes, we proposed a new approach using GS to select the best individuals in each F2 progeny, based on genomic estimated breeding values and genetic divergence, to cross them and generate a new recombination event. Our results showed that the best scenario was using GS in F2, followed by the phenotypic selection of new parents in F4. For TS updating, adding new data every cycle (over 768) to update the TS maintains the prediction accuracy at satisfactory levels for more breeding cycles. However, only the last three generations can be kept in the TS, optimizing the genetic relationship between TS and the targeted population and reducing the computing demand and risks. Hence, we believe that our results may help breeders optimize GS in their programs and improve genetic gain in long-term schemes.

Genomic Selection: A Tool for Accelerating the Efficiency of Molecular Breeding for Development of Climate-Resilient Crops

Since the inception of the theory and conceptual framework of genomic selection (GS), extensive research has been done on evaluating its efficiency for utilization in crop improvement. Though, the marker-assisted selection has proven its potential for improvement of qualitative traits controlled by one to few genes with large effects. Its role in improving quantitative traits controlled by several genes with small effects is limited. In this regard, GS that utilizes genomic-estimated breeding values of individuals obtained from genome-wide markers to choose candidates for the next breeding cycle is a powerful approach to improve quantitative traits. In the last two decades, GS has been widely adopted in animal breeding programs globally because of its potential to improve selection accuracy, minimize phenotyping, reduce cycle time, and increase genetic gains. In addition, given the promising initial evaluation outcomes of GS for the improvement of yield, biotic and abiotic stress tolerance, and quality in cereal crops like wheat, maize, and rice, prospects of integrating it in breeding crops are also being explored. Improved statistical models that leverage the genomic information to increase the prediction accuracies are critical for the effectiveness of GS-enabled breeding programs. Study on genetic architecture under drought and heat stress helps in developing production markers that can significantly accelerate the development of stress-resilient crop varieties through GS. This review focuses on the transition from traditional selection methods to GS, underlying statistical methods and tools used for this purpose, current status of GS studies in crop plants, and perspectives for its successful implementation in the development of climate-resilient crops.

Optimum breeding strategies using genomic and phenotypic selection for the simultaneous improvement of two traits

A breeding strategy combining genomic with one-stage phenotypic selection maximizes annual selection gain for net merit. Choice of the selection index strongly affects the selection gain expected in individual traits. Selection indices using genomic information have been proposed in crop-specific scenarios. Routine use of genomic selection (GS) for simultaneous improvement of multiple traits requires information about the impact of the available economic and logistic resources and genetic properties (variances, trait correlations, and prediction accuracies) of the breeding population on the expected selection gain. We extended the R package "selectiongain" from single trait to index selection to optimize and compare breeding strategies for simultaneous improvement of two traits. We focused on the expected annual selection gain (ΔG_a) for traits differing in their genetic correlation, economic weights, variance components, and prediction accuracies of GS. For all scenarios considered, breeding strategy GSrapid (one-stage GS followed by one-stage phenotypic selection) achieved higher ΔG_a than classical two-stage phenotypic selection, regardless of the index chosen to combine the two traits and the prediction accuracy of GS. The Smith-Hazel or base index delivered higher ΔG_a for net merit and individual traits compared to selection by independent culling levels, whereas the restricted index led to lower ΔG_a in net merit and divergent results for selection gain of individual traits. The differences among the indices depended strongly on the correlation of traits, their variance components, and economic weights, underpinning the importance of choosing the selection indices according to the goal of the breeding program. We demonstrate our theoretical derivations and extensions of the R package "selectiongain" with an example from hybrid wheat by designing indices to simultaneously improve grain yield and grain protein content or sedimentation volume.

Genetic architecture underlying the expression of eight α-amylase trypsin inhibitors

KEY MESSAGE

Wheat cultivars largely differ in the content and composition of ATI proteins, but heritability was quite low for six out of eight ATIs. The genetic architecture of ATI proteins is built up of few major and numerous small effect QTL. Amylase trypsin inhibitors (ATIs) are important allergens in baker's asthma and suspected triggers of non-celiac wheat sensitivity (NCWS) inducing intestinal and extra-intestinal inflammation. As studies on the expression and genetic architecture of ATI proteins in wheat are lacking, we evaluated 149 European old and modern bread wheat cultivars grown at three different field locations for their content of eight ATI proteins. Large differences in the content and composition of ATIs in the different cultivars were identified ranging from 3.76 pmol for ATI CM2 to 80.4 pmol for ATI 0.19, with up to 2.5-fold variation in CM-type and up to sixfold variation in mono/dimeric ATIs. Generally, heritability estimates were low except for ATI 0.28 and ATI CM2. ATI protein content showed a low correlation with quality traits commonly analyzed in wheat breeding. Similarly, no trends were found regarding ATI content in wheat cultivars originating from numerous countries and decades of breeding history. Genome-wide association mapping revealed a complex genetic architecture built of many small, few medium and two major quantitative trait loci (QTL). The major QTL were located on chromosomes 3B for ATI 0.19-like and 6B for ATI 0.28, explaining 70.6 and 68.7% of the genotypic variance, respectively. Within close physical proximity to the medium and major QTL, we identified eight potential candidate genes on the wheat reference genome encoding structurally related lipid transfer proteins. Consequently, selection and breeding of wheat cultivars with low ATI protein amounts appear difficult requiring other strategies to reduce ATI content in wheat products.

Strategies to Assure Optimal Trade-Offs Among Competing Objectives for the Genetic Improvement of Soybean

Plant breeding is a decision-making discipline based on understanding project objectives. Genetic improvement projects can have two competing objectives: maximize the rate of genetic improvement and minimize the loss of useful genetic variance. For commercial plant breeders, competition in the marketplace forces greater emphasis on maximizing immediate genetic improvements. In contrast, public plant breeders have an opportunity, perhaps an obligation, to place greater emphasis on minimizing the loss of useful genetic variance while realizing genetic improvements. Considerable research indicates that short-term genetic gains from genomic selection are much greater than phenotypic selection, while phenotypic selection provides better long-term genetic gains because it retains useful genetic diversity during the early cycles of selection. With limited resources, must a soybean breeder choose between the two extreme responses provided by genomic selection or phenotypic selection? Or is it possible to develop novel breeding strategies that will provide a desirable compromise between the competing objectives? To address these questions, we decomposed breeding strategies into decisions about selection methods, mating designs, and whether the breeding population should be organized as family islands. For breeding populations organized into islands, decisions about possible migration rules among family islands were included. From among 60 possible strategies, genetic improvement is maximized for the first five to 10 cycles using genomic selection and a hub network mating design, where the hub parents with the largest selection metric make large parental contributions. It also requires that the breeding populations be organized as fully connected family islands, where every island is connected to every other island, and migration rules allow the exchange of two lines among islands every other cycle of selection. If the objectives are to maximize both short-term and long-term gains, then the best compromise strategy is similar except that the mating design could be hub network, chain rule, or a multi-objective optimization method-based mating design. Weighted genomic selection applied to centralized populations also resulted in the realization of the greatest proportion of the genetic potential of the founders but required more cycles than the best compromise strategy.

Training Set Optimization for Sparse Phenotyping in Genomic Selection: A Conceptual Overview

Genomic selection (GS) is becoming an essential tool in breeding programs due to its role in increasing genetic gain per unit time. The design of the training set (TRS) in GS is one of the key steps in the implementation of GS in plant and animal breeding programs mainly because (i) TRS optimization is critical for the efficiency and effectiveness of GS, (ii) breeders test genotypes in multi-year and multi-location trials to select the best-performing ones. In this framework, TRS optimization can help to decrease the number of genotypes to be tested and, therefore, reduce phenotyping cost and time, and (iii) we can obtain better prediction accuracies from optimally selected TRS than an arbitrary TRS. Here, we concentrate the efforts on reviewing the lessons learned from TRS optimization studies and their impact on crop breeding and discuss important features for the success of TRS optimization under different scenarios. In this article, we review the lessons learned from training population optimization in plants and the major challenges associated with the optimization of GS including population size, the relationship between training and test set (TS), update of TRS, and the use of different packages and algorithms for TRS implementation in GS. Finally, we describe general guidelines to improving the rate of genetic improvement by maximizing the use of the TRS optimization in the GS framework.

Applications of Doubled Haploids in Plant Breeding and Applied Research

Manifold and diverse applications of doubled haploid (DH) plants have emerged in academy and in the plant breeding industry since the first discovery of a haploid mutant in the Jimson Weed (Datura stramonium), followed by the first reports about anther culture in the same species, maternal haploids by wide crosses in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), interspecific hybridization, ovary culture (gynogenesis), isolated microspore culture, and more recently the CENH3 approach in thale cress (Arabidopsis thaliana L.) and other species. Research and development efforts were and are still significant in both user groups. Luckily, often academic and industrial partners cooperate in challenging and sometimes voluminous projects worldwide. Not only to develop innovative DH protocols and technologies per se, but also to exploit the advantages of DH plants in a huge variety of research and development experiments. This review concentrates not on the DH technologies per se, but on the application of DHs in plant-related research and development projects.

Genetic relationships and identification of core germplasm among rice photoperiod- and thermo-sensitive genic male sterile lines

BACKGROUND

Harnessing heterosis is one of the major approaches to increase rice yield and has made a great contribution to food security. The identification and selection of outstanding parental genotypes especially among male sterile lines is a key step for exploiting heterosis. Two-line hybrid system is based on the discovery and application of photoperiod- and thermo-sensitive genic sensitive male sterile (PTGMS) materials. The development of wide-range of male sterile lines from a common gene pool leads to a narrower genetic diversity, which is vulnerable to biotic and abiotic stress. Hence, it is valuable to ascertain the genetic background of PTGMS lines and to understand their relationships in order to select and design a future breeding strategy.

RESULTS

A collection of 118 male sterile rice lines and 13 conventional breeding lines from the major rice growing regions of China was evaluated and screened against the photosensitive (pms3) and temperature sensitive male sterility (tms5) genes. The total gene pool was divided into four major populations as P1 possessing the pms3, P2 possessing tms5, P3 possessing both pms3 and tms5 genes, and P4 containing conventional breeding lines without any male sterility allele. The high genetic purity was revealed by homozygous alleles in all populations. The population admixture, principle components and the phylogenetic analysis revealed the close relations of P2 and P3 with P4. The population differentiation analysis showed that P1 has the highest differentiation coefficient. The lines from P1 were observed as the ancestors of other three populations in a phylogenetic tree, while the lines in P2 and P3 showed a close genetic relation with conventional lines. A core collection of top 10% lines with maximum within and among populations genetic diversity was constructed for future research and breeding efforts.

CONCLUSION

The low genetic diversity and close genetic relationship among PTGMS lines in P2, P3 and P4 populations suggest a selection sweep and they might result from a backcrossing with common ancestors including the pure lines of P1. The core collection from PTGMS panel updated with new diverse germplasm will serve best for further two-line hybrid breeding.

Heterosis and Hybrid Crop Breeding: A Multidisciplinary Review

Although hybrid crop varieties are among the most popular agricultural innovations, the rationale for hybrid crop breeding is sometimes misunderstood. Hybrid breeding is slower and more resource-intensive than inbred breeding, but it allows systematic improvement of a population by recurrent selection and exploitation of heterosis simultaneously. Inbred parental lines can identically reproduce both themselves and their F1 progeny indefinitely, whereas outbred lines cannot, so uniform outbred lines must be bred indirectly through their inbred parents to harness heterosis. Heterosis is an expected consequence of whole-genome non-additive effects at the population level over evolutionary time. Understanding heterosis from the perspective of molecular genetic mechanisms alone may be elusive, because heterosis is likely an emergent property of populations. Hybrid breeding is a process of recurrent population improvement to maximize hybrid performance. Hybrid breeding is not maximization of heterosis per se, nor testing random combinations of individuals to find an exceptional hybrid, nor using heterosis in place of population improvement. Though there are methods to harness heterosis other than hybrid breeding, such as use of open-pollinated varieties or clonal propagation, they are not currently suitable for all crops or production environments. The use of genomic selection can decrease cycle time and costs in hybrid breeding, particularly by rapidly establishing heterotic pools, reducing testcrossing, and limiting the loss of genetic variance. Open questions in optimal use of genomic selection in hybrid crop breeding programs remain, such as how to choose founders of heterotic pools, the importance of dominance effects in genomic prediction, the necessary frequency of updating the training set with phenotypic information, and how to maintain genetic variance and prevent fixation of deleterious alleles.

Genomic prediction across years in a maize doubled haploid breeding program to accelerate early-stage testcross testing

Genomic selection with a multiple-year training population dataset could accelerate early-stage testcross testing by skipping the first-stage yield testing, which significantly saves the time and cost of early-stage testcross testing. With the development of doubled haploid (DH) technology, the main task for a maize breeder is to estimate the breeding values of thousands of DH lines annually. In early-stage testcross testing, genomic selection (GS) offers the opportunity of replacing expensive multiple-environment phenotyping and phenotypic selection with lower-cost genotyping and genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV)-based selection. In the present study, a total of 1528 maize DH lines, phenotyped in multiple-environment trials in three consecutive years and genotyped with a low-cost per-sample genotyping platform of rAmpSeq, were used to explore how to implement GS to accelerate early-stage testcross testing. Results showed that the average prediction accuracy estimated from the cross-validation schemes was above 0.60 across all the scenarios. The average prediction accuracies estimated from the independent validation schemes ranged from 0.23 to 0.32 across all the scenarios, when the one-year datasets were used as training population (TRN) to predict the other year data as testing population (TST). The average prediction accuracies increased to a range from 0.31 to 0.42 across all the scenarios, when the two-years datasets were used as TRN. The prediction accuracies increased to a range from 0.50 to 0.56, when the TRN consisted of two-years of breeding data and 50% of third year's data converted from TST to TRN. This information showed that GS with a multiple-year TRN set offers the opportunity to accelerate early-stage testcross testing by skipping the first-stage yield testing, which significantly saves the time and cost of early-stage testcross testing.

The value of early-stage phenotyping for wheat breeding in the age of genomic selection

Genomic selection using data from an on-going breeding program can improve gain from selection, relative to phenotypic selection, by significantly increasing the number of lines that can be evaluated. The early stages of phenotyping involve few observations and can be quite inaccurate. Genomic selection (GS) could improve selection accuracy and alter resource allocation. Our objectives were (1) to compare the prediction accuracy of GS and phenotyping in stage-1 and stage-2 field evaluations and (2) to assess the value of stage-1 phenotyping for advancing lines to stage-2 testing. We built training populations from 1769 wheat breeding lines that were genotyped and phenotyped for yield, test weight, Fusarium head blight resistance, heading date, and height. The lines were in cohorts, and analyses were done by cohort. Phenotypes or GS estimated breeding values were used to determine the trait value of stage-1 lines, and these values were correlated with their phenotypes from stage-2 trials. This was repeated for stage-2 to stage-3 trials. The prediction accuracy of GS and phenotypes was similar to each other regardless of the amount (0, 50, 100%) of stage-1 data incorporated in the GS model. Ranking of stage-1 lines by GS predictions that used no stage-1 phenotypic data had marginally lower correspondence to stage-2 phenotypic rankings than rankings of stage-1 lines based on phenotypes. Stage-1 lines ranked high by GS had slightly inferior phenotypes in stage-2 trials than lines ranked high by phenotypes. Cost analysis indicated that replacing stage-1 phenotyping with GS would allow nearly three times more stage-1 candidates to be assessed and provide 0.84-2.23 times greater gain from selection. We conclude that GS can complement or replace phenotyping in early stages of phenotyping.

Revisiting hybrid breeding designs using genomic predictions: simulations highlight the superiority of incomplete factorials between segregating families over topcross designs

Simulations showed that hybrid performances issued from an incomplete factorial between segregating families of two heterotic groups enable to calibrate genomic predictions of hybrid value more efficiently than tester-based designs. Genomic selection offers new opportunities to revisit hybrid breeding by replacing extensive phenotyping of hybrid combinations by genomic predictions. A key question remains to identify the best design to calibrate genomic prediction models. We proposed to use single-cross hybrids issued from an incomplete factorial design between segregating populations and compared this strategy with a conventional approach based on topcross evaluation. Two multiparental segregating populations of lines, each specific of one heterotic group, were simulated. Hybrids considered as training sets were generated using either (1) a parental line from the opposite group as tester or (2) following an incomplete factorial design. Different specific combining ability (SCA) proportions were simulated by considering different levels of group divergence and dominance effects for the simulated QTL. For the incomplete factorial design, for a same number of hybrids, we considered different numbers of parental lines and different contributions of lines (one to four) to calibration hybrids. We evaluated for different training set sizes prediction accuracies of new hybrids and genetic gains along three generations. At a given training set size, factorial design was as efficient (considering accuracy) as tester design in additive scenarios, but significantly outperformed tester design when SCA was present. The contribution number of each parental line to the incomplete factorial design had a small impact on accuracies. Our simulations confirmed experimental results and showed that calibrating models on hybrids between two multiparental populations is a cost-efficient way to perform genomic predictions in both groups, opening prospects for revisiting reciprocal recurrent selection schemes.

Novel strategies for genomic prediction of untested single-cross maize hybrids using unbalanced historical data

Weighted outperformed unweighted genomic prediction using an unbalanced dataset representative of a commercial breeding program. Moreover, the use of the two cycles preceding predictions as training set achieved optimal prediction ability. Predicting the performance of untested single-cross hybrids through genomic prediction (GP) is highly desirable to increase genetic gain. Here, we evaluate the predictive ability (PA) of novel genomic strategies to predict single-cross maize hybrids using an unbalanced historical dataset of a tropical breeding program. Field data comprised 949 single-cross hybrids evaluated from 2006 to 2013, representing eight breeding cycles. Hybrid genotypes were inferred based on their parents' genotypes (inbred lines) using single-nucleotide polymorphism markers obtained via genotyping-by-sequencing. GP analyses were fitted using genomic best linear unbiased prediction via a stage-wise approach, considering two distinct cross-validation schemes. Results highlight the importance of taking into account the uncertainty regarding the adjusted means at each step of a stage-wise analysis, due to the highly unbalanced data structure and the expected heterogeneity of variances across years and locations of a commercial breeding program. Further, an increase in the size of the training set was not always advantageous even in the same breeding program. The use of the two cycles preceding predictions achieved optimal PA of untested single-cross hybrids in a forward prediction scenario, which could be used to replace the first step of field screening. Finally, in addition to the practical and theoretical results applied to maize hybrid breeding programs, the stage-wise analysis performed in this study may be applied to any crop historical unbalanced data.

Hybrid breeding of rice via genomic selection

Hybrid breeding is the main strategy for improving productivity in many crops, especially in rice and maize. Genomic hybrid breeding is a technology that uses whole-genome markers to predict future hybrids. Predicted superior hybrids are then field evaluated and released as new hybrid cultivars after their superior performances are confirmed. This will increase the opportunity of selecting true superior hybrids with minimum costs. Here, we used genomic best linear unbiased prediction to perform hybrid performance prediction using an existing rice population of 1495 hybrids. Replicated 10-fold cross-validations showed that the prediction abilities on ten agronomic traits ranged from 0.35 to 0.92. Using the 1495 rice hybrids as a training sample, we predicted six agronomic traits of 100 hybrids derived from half diallel crosses involving 21 parents that are different from the parents of the hybrids in the training sample. The prediction abilities were relatively high, varying from 0.54 (yield) to 0.92 (grain length). We concluded that the current population of 1495 hybrids can be used to predict hybrids from seemingly unrelated parents. Eventually, we used this training population to predict all potential hybrids of cytoplasm male sterile lines from 3000 rice varieties from the 3K Rice Genome Project. Using a breeding index combining 10 traits, we identified the top and bottom 200 predicted hybrids. SNP genotypes of the training population and parameters estimated from this training population are available for general uses and further validation in genomic hybrid prediction of all potential hybrids generated from all varieties of rice.

Genomic Prediction and Genome-Wide Association Studies of Flour Yield and Alveograph Quality Traits Using Advanced Winter Wheat Breeding Material

Use of genetic markers and genomic prediction might improve genetic gain for quality traits in wheat breeding programs. Here, flour yield and Alveograph quality traits were inspected in 635 F6 winter wheat breeding lines from two breeding cycles. Genome-wide association studies revealed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 5D significantly associated with flour yield, Alveograph P (dough tenacity), and Alveograph W (dough strength). Additionally, SNPs on chromosome 1D were associated with Alveograph P and W, SNPs on chromosome 1B were associated with Alveograph P, and SNPs on chromosome 4A were associated with Alveograph L (dough extensibility). Predictive abilities based on genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) models ranged from 0.50 for flour yield to 0.79 for Alveograph W based on a leave-one-out cross-validation strategy. Predictive abilities were negatively affected by smaller training set sizes, lower genetic relationship between lines in training and validation sets, and by genotype-environment (G×E) interactions. Bayesian Power Lasso models and genomic feature models resulted in similar or slightly improved predictions compared to GBLUP models. SNPs with the largest effects can be used for screening large numbers of lines in early generations in breeding programs to select lines that potentially have good quality traits. In later generations, genomic predictions might be used for a more accurate selection of high quality wheat lines.

Haploid male fertility and spontaneous chromosome doubling evaluated in a diallel and recurrent selection experiment in maize

Mainly additive gene action governed inheritance of haploid male fertility, although epistatic effects were also significant. Recurrent selection for haploid male fertility resulted in substantial improvement in this trait. The doubled haploid (DH) technology offers several advantages in maize breeding compared to the traditional method of recurrent selfing. However, there is still great potential for improving the success rate of DH production. Currently, the majority of haploid plants are infertile after chromosome doubling treatment by antimitotic agents such as colchicine and cannot be selfed for production of DH lines. Improvement in haploid male fertility (HMF) by selection for a higher spontaneous chromosome doubling rate (SDR) has the potential to increase DH production efficiency. To investigate the gene action governing SDR in two breeding populations, we adapted the quantitative-genetic model of Eberhart and Gardner (in Biometrics 22:864-881. https://doi.org/10.2307/2528079 , 1966) for the case of haploid progeny from ten DH lines and corresponding diallel crosses. Furthermore, we carried out three cycles of recurrent selection for SDR in two additional populations to evaluate the selection gain for this trait. Additive genetic effects predominated in both diallel crosses, but epistatic effects were also significant. Entry-mean heritability of SDR observed for haploid progeny of these populations exceeded 0.91, but the single-plant heritability relevant to selection was low, ranging from 0.11 to 0.19. Recurrent selection increased SDR from approximately 5-50%, which suggests the presence of few QTL with large effects. This improvement in HMF is greater than the effect of standard colchicine treatment, which yields at maximum 30% fertile haploids. Altogether, the results show the great potential of spontaneous chromosome doubling to streamline development DH lines and to enable new breeding schemes with more efficient allocation of resources.

Evaluation of the genetic architecture and the potential of genomics-assisted breeding of quality traits in two large panels of durum wheat

New QTL for important quality traits in durum were identified, but for most QTL their effect varies depending on the investigated germplasm. Most of the global durum wheat (Triticum turgidum ssp. durum) production is used for human consumption via pasta and to a lower extent couscous and bulgur. Therefore, durum wheat varieties have to fulfill high demands regarding quality traits. In this study, we evaluated the quality traits protein content, sedimentation volume, falling number, vitreousity and thousand kernel weight in a Central European (CP) and a Southern and Western European panel (SP) with 183 and 159 durum lines, respectively, and investigated their genetic architecture by genome-wide association mapping. Except for protein content, we identified QTL explaining a large proportion of the genotypic variance for different traits. However, most of them were identified only in one panel. Nevertheless, for sedimentation volume a genomic region on chromosome 1B appeared important in both durum panels and a BLAST search against the emmer and bread wheat reference genomes points toward the candidate gene Glu-B3. This was further supported by the protein subunit banding pattern via SDS-PAGE gel electrophoresis. For vitreousity, genomic regions on chromosome 7A explained a larger proportion of the genotypic variance in both panels, whereas one QTL, possibly related to the Pinb-2 locus, also slightly influenced the protein content. Within each panel, high prediction abilities for genomic selection were obtained, which, however, dropped considerably when predicting across both panels. Nevertheless, the across-panel prediction ability was still larger than 0.4 for protein content and sedimentation volume, underlining the potential for genomics-aided durum breeding, if laboratory and logistical facilities are available.

Simultaneous selection for grain yield and protein content in genomics-assisted wheat breeding

KEY MESSAGE

Large genetic improvement can be achieved by simultaneous genomic selection for grain yield and protein content when combining different breeding strategies in the form of selection indices. Genomic selection has been implemented in many national and international breeding programmes in recent years. Numerous studies have shown the potential of this new breeding tool; few have, however, taken the simultaneous selection for multiple traits into account that is though common practice in breeding programmes. The simultaneous improvement in grain yield and protein content is thereby a major challenge in wheat breeding due to a severe negative trade-off. Accordingly, the potential and limits of multi-trait selection for this particular trait complex utilizing the vast phenotypic and genomic data collected in an applied wheat breeding programme were investigated in this study. Two breeding strategies based on various genomic-selection indices were compared, which (1) aimed to select high-protein genotypes with acceptable yield potential and (2) develop high-yielding varieties, while maintaining protein content. The prediction accuracy of preliminary yield trials could be strongly improved when combining phenotypic and genomic information in a genomics-assisted selection approach, which surpassed both genomics-based and classical phenotypic selection methods both for single trait predictions and in genomic index selection across years. The employed genomic selection indices mitigated furthermore the negative trade-off between grain yield and protein content leading to a substantial selection response for protein yield, i.e. total seed nitrogen content, which suggested that it is feasible to develop varieties that combine a superior yield potential with comparably high protein content, thus utilizing available nitrogen resources more efficiently.

Exploring and exploiting the genetic variation of Fusarium head blight resistance for genomic-assisted breeding in the elite durum wheat gene pool

KEY MESSAGE

Genomic selection had a higher selection response for FHB resistance than phenotypic selection, while association mapping identified major QTL on chromosome 3B unaffected by plant height and flowering date. Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one of the most destructive diseases of durum wheat. Hence, minimizing losses in yield, quality and avoiding contamination with mycotoxins are of pivotal importance, as durum wheat is mostly used for human consumption. While growing resistant varieties is the most promising approach for controlling this fungal disease, FHB resistance breeding in durum wheat is hampered by the limited variation in the elite gene pool and difficulties in efficiently combining the numerous small-effect resistance quantitative trait loci (QTL) in the same line. We evaluated an international collection of 228 genotyped durum wheat cultivars for FHB resistance over 3 years to investigate the genetic architecture and potential of genomic-assisted breeding for FHB resistance in durum wheat. Plant height was strongly positively correlated with FHB resistance and led to co-localization of plant height and resistance QTL. Nevertheless, a major QTL on chromosome 3B independent of plant height was identified in the same chromosomal interval as reported for the prominent hexaploid resistance QTL Fhb1, though haplotype analysis highlighted the distinctiveness of both QTL. Comparison between phenotypic and genomic selection for FHB resistance revealed a superior prediction ability of the former. However, simulated selection experiments resulted in higher selection responses when using genomic breeding values for early generation selection. An earlier identification of the most promising lines and crossing parents was feasible with a genomic selection index, which suggested a much faster short-term population improvement than previously possible in durum wheat, complementing long-term strategies with exotic resistance donors.

Technological advances in maize breeding: past, present and future

Maize has for many decades been both one of the most important crops worldwide and one of the primary genetic model organisms. More recently, maize breeding has been impacted by rapid technological advances in sequencing and genotyping technology, transformation including genome editing, doubled haploid technology, parallelled by progress in data sciences and the development of novel breeding approaches utilizing genomic information. Herein, we report on past, current and future developments relevant for maize breeding with regard to (1) genome analysis, (2) germplasm diversity characterization and utilization, (3) manipulation of genetic diversity by transformation and genome editing, (4) inbred line development and hybrid seed production, (5) understanding and prediction of hybrid performance, (6) breeding methodology and (7) synthesis of opportunities and challenges for future maize breeding.

Training set optimization of genomic prediction by means of EthAcc

Genomic prediction is a useful tool for plant and animal breeding programs and is starting to be used to predict human diseases as well. A shortcoming that slows down the genomic selection deployment is that the accuracy of the prediction is not known a priori. We propose EthAcc (Estimated THeoretical ACCuracy) as a method for estimating the accuracy given a training set that is genotyped and phenotyped. EthAcc is based on a causal quantitative trait loci model estimated by a genome-wide association study. This estimated causal model is crucial; therefore, we compared different methods to find the one yielding the best EthAcc. The multilocus mixed model was found to perform the best. We compared EthAcc to accuracy estimators that can be derived via a mixed marker model. We showed that EthAcc is the only approach to correctly estimate the accuracy. Moreover, in case of a structured population, in accordance with the achieved accuracy, EthAcc showed that the biggest training set is not always better than a smaller and closer training set. We then performed training set optimization with EthAcc and compared it to CDmean. EthAcc outperformed CDmean on real datasets from sugar beet, maize, and wheat. Nonetheless, its performance was mainly due to the use of an optimal but inaccessible set as a start of the optimization algorithm. EthAcc's precision and algorithm issues prevent it from reaching a good training set with a random start. Despite this drawback, we demonstrated that a substantial gain in accuracy can be obtained by performing training set optimization.

Bayesian analysis and prediction of hybrid performance

BACKGROUND

The selection of hybrids is an essential step in maize breeding. However, evaluating a large number of hybrids in field trials can be extremely costly. However, genomic models can be used to predict the expected performance of un-tested genotypes. Bayesian models offer a very flexible framework for hybrid prediction. The Bayesian methodology can be used with parametric and semi-parametric assumptions for additive and non-additive effects. Furthermore, samples from the posterior distribution of Bayesian models can be used to estimate the variance due to general and specific combining abilities even in cases where additive and non-additive effects are not mutually orthogonal. Also, the use of Bayesian models for analysis and prediction of hybrid performance has remained fairly limited.

RESULTS

We provided an overview of Bayesian parametric and semi-parametric genomic models for prediction of agronomic traits in maize hybrids and discussed how these models can be used to decompose the genotypic variance into components due to general and specific combining ability. We applied the methodology to data from 906 single cross tropical maize hybrids derived from a convergent population. Our results show that: (1) non-additive effects make a sizable contribution to the genetic variance of grain yield; however, the relative importance of non-additive effects was much smaller for ear and plant height; (2) genomic prediction can achieve relatively high accuracy in predicting phenotypes of un-tested hybrids and in pre-screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Genomic prediction can be a useful tool in pre-screening of hybrids and could contribute to the improvement of the efficiency and efficacy of maize hybrids breeding programs. The Bayesian framework offers a great deal of flexibility in modeling hybrid performance. The methodology can be used to estimate important genetic parameters and render predictions of the expected hybrid performance as well measures of uncertainty about such predictions.

Assessing the variation and genetic architecture of asparagine content in wheat: What can plant breeding contribute to a reduction in the acrylamide precursor?

A large genetic variation, moderately high heritability, and promising prediction ability for genomic selection show that wheat breeding can substantially reduce the acrylamide forming potential in bread wheat by a reduction in its precursor asparagine. Acrylamide is a potentially carcinogenic substance that is formed in baked products of wheat via the Maillard reaction from carbonyl sources and asparagine. In bread, the acrylamide content increases almost linearly with the asparagine content of the wheat grains. Our objective was, therefore, to investigate the potential of wheat breeding to contribute to a reduction in acrylamide by decreasing the asparagine content in wheat grains. To this end, we evaluated 149 wheat varieties from Central Europe at three locations for asparagine content, as well as for sulfur content, and five important quality traits regularly assessed in bread wheat breeding. The mean asparagine content ranged from 143.25 to 392.75 mg/kg for the different wheat varieties, thus underlining the possibility to reduce the acrylamide content of baked wheat products considerably by selecting appropriate varieties. Furthermore, a moderately high heritability of 0.65 and no negative correlations with quality traits like protein content, sedimentation volume and falling number show that breeding of quality wheat with low asparagine content is feasible. Genome-wide association mapping identified few QTL for asparagine content, the largest explaining 18% of the genotypic variance. Combining these QTL with a genome-wide prediction approach yielded a mean cross-validated prediction ability of 0.62. As we observed a high genotype-by-environment interaction for asparagine content, we recommend the costly and slow laboratory analysis only for late breeding generations, while selection in early generations could be based on marker-assisted or genomic selection.

A deep convolutional neural network approach for predicting phenotypes from genotypes

Deep learning is a promising technology to accurately select individuals with high phenotypic values based on genotypic data. Genomic selection (GS) is a promising breeding strategy by which the phenotypes of plant individuals are usually predicted based on genome-wide markers of genotypes. In this study, we present a deep learning method, named DeepGS, to predict phenotypes from genotypes. Using a deep convolutional neural network, DeepGS uses hidden variables that jointly represent features in genotypes when making predictions; it also employs convolution, sampling and dropout strategies to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional genotypic data. We used a large GS dataset to train DeepGS and compared its performance with other methods. The experimental results indicate that DeepGS can be used as a complement to the commonly used RR-BLUP in the prediction of phenotypes from genotypes. The complementarity between DeepGS and RR-BLUP can be utilized using an ensemble learning approach for more accurately selecting individuals with high phenotypic values, even for the absence of outlier individuals and subsets of genotypic markers. The source codes of DeepGS and the ensemble learning approach have been packaged into Docker images for facilitating their applications in different GS programs.

Simultaneous improvement of grain yield and protein content in durum wheat by different phenotypic indices and genomic selection

Simultaneous improvement of protein content and grain yield by index selection is possible but its efficiency largely depends on the weighting of the single traits. The genetic architecture of these indices is similar to that of the primary traits. Grain yield and protein content are of major importance in durum wheat breeding, but their negative correlation has hampered their simultaneous improvement. To account for this in wheat breeding, the grain protein deviation (GPD) and the protein yield were proposed as targets for selection. The aim of this work was to investigate the potential of different indices to simultaneously improve grain yield and protein content in durum wheat and to evaluate their genetic architecture towards genomics-assisted breeding. To this end, we investigated two different durum wheat panels comprising 159 and 189 genotypes, which were tested in multiple field locations across Europe and genotyped by a genotyping-by-sequencing approach. The phenotypic analyses revealed significant genetic variances for all traits and heritabilities of the phenotypic indices that were in a similar range as those of grain yield and protein content. The GPD showed a high and positive correlation with protein content, whereas protein yield was highly and positively correlated with grain yield. Thus, selecting for a high GPD would mainly increase the protein content whereas a selection based on protein yield would mainly improve grain yield, but a combination of both indices allows to balance this selection. The genome-wide association mapping revealed a complex genetic architecture for all traits with most QTL having small effects and being detected only in one germplasm set, thus limiting the potential of marker-assisted selection for trait improvement. By contrast, genome-wide prediction appeared promising but its performance strongly depends on the relatedness between training and prediction sets.

Genomic heritability estimates in sweet cherry reveal non-additive genetic variance is relevant for industry-prioritized traits

BACKGROUND

Sweet cherry is consumed widely across the world and provides substantial economic benefits in regions where it is grown. While cherry breeding has been conducted in the Pacific Northwest for over half a century, little is known about the genetic architecture of important traits. We used a genome-enabled mixed model to predict the genetic performance of 505 individuals for 32 phenological, disease response and fruit quality traits evaluated in the RosBREED sweet cherry crop data set. Genome-wide predictions were estimated using a repeated measures model for phenotypic data across 3 years, incorporating additive, dominance and epistatic variance components. Genomic relationship matrices were constructed with high-density SNP data and were used to estimate relatedness and account for incomplete replication across years.

RESULTS

High broad-sense heritabilities of 0.83, 0.77, and 0.76 were observed for days to maturity, firmness, and fruit weight, respectively. Epistatic variance exceeded 40% of the total genetic variance for maturing timing, firmness and powdery mildew response. Dominance variance was the largest for fruit weight and fruit size at 34% and 27%, respectively. Omission of non-additive sources of genetic variance from the genetic model resulted in inflation of narrow-sense heritability but minimally influenced prediction accuracy of genetic values in validation. Predicted genetic rankings of individuals from single-year models were inconsistent across years, likely due to incomplete sampling of the population genetic variance.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicted breeding values and genetic values revealed many high-performing individuals for use as parents and the most promising selections to advance for cultivar release consideration, respectively. This study highlights the importance of using the appropriate genetic model for calculating breeding values to avoid inflation of expected parental contribution to genetic gain. The genomic predictions obtained will enable breeders to efficiently leverage the genetic potential of North American sweet cherry germplasm by identifying high quality individuals more rapidly than with phenotypic data alone.

Genome-wide regression models considering general and specific combining ability predict hybrid performance in oilseed rape with similar accuracy regardless of trait architecture

Genomic prediction using the Brassica 60 k genotyping array is efficient in oilseed rape hybrids. Prediction accuracy is more dependent on trait complexity than on the prediction model. In oilseed rape breeding programs, performance prediction of parental combinations is of fundamental importance. Due to the phenomenon of heterosis, per se performance is not a reliable indicator for F₁-hybrid performance, and selection of well-paired parents requires the testing of large quantities of hybrid combinations in extensive field trials. However, the number of potential hybrids, in general, dramatically exceeds breeding capacity and budget. Integration of genomic selection (GS) could substantially increase the number of potential combinations that can be evaluated. GS models can be used to predict the performance of untested individuals based only on their genotypic profiles, using marker effects previously predicted in a training population. This allows for a preselection of promising genotypes, enabling a more efficient allocation of resources. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of the Illumina Brassica 60 k SNP array for genomic prediction and compared three alternative approaches based on a homoscedastic ridge regression BLUP and three Bayesian prediction models that considered general and specific combining ability (GCA and SCA, respectively). A total of 448 hybrids were produced in a commercial breeding program from unbalanced crosses between 220 paternal doubled haploid lines and five male-sterile testers. Predictive ability was evaluated for seven agronomic traits. We demonstrate that the Brassica 60 k genotyping array is an adequate and highly valuable platform to implement genomic prediction of hybrid performance in oilseed rape. Furthermore, we present first insights into the application of established statistical models for prediction of important agronomical traits with contrasting patterns of polygenic control.

Effect of Trait Heritability, Training Population Size and Marker Density on Genomic Prediction Accuracy Estimation in 22 bi-parental Tropical Maize Populations

Genomic selection is being used increasingly in plant breeding to accelerate genetic gain per unit time. One of the most important applications of genomic selection in maize breeding is to predict and select the best un-phenotyped lines in bi-parental populations based on genomic estimated breeding values. In the present study, 22 bi-parental tropical maize populations genotyped with low density SNPs were used to evaluate the genomic prediction accuracy (rMG ) of the six trait-environment combinations under various levels of training population size (TPS) and marker density (MD), and assess the effect of trait heritability (h2 ), TPS and MD on rMG estimation. Our results showed that: (1) moderate rMG values were obtained for different trait-environment combinations, when 50% of the total genotypes was used as training population and ~200 SNPs were used for prediction; (2) rMG increased with an increase in h2 , TPS and MD, both correlation and variance analyses showed that h2 is the most important factor and MD is the least important factor on rMG estimation for most of the trait-environment combinations; (3) predictions between pairwise half-sib populations showed that the rMG values for all the six trait-environment combinations were centered around zero, 49% predictions had rMG values above zero; (4) the trend observed in rMG differed with the trend observed in rMG /h, and h is the square root of heritability of the predicted trait, it indicated that both rMG and rMG /h values should be presented in GS study to show the accuracy of genomic selection and the relative accuracy of genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, respectively. This study provides useful information to maize breeders to design genomic selection workflow in their breeding programs.

Genomic preselection with genotyping-by-sequencing increases performance of commercial oil palm hybrid crosses

Background

There is great potential for the genetic improvement of oil palm yield. Traditional progeny tests allow accurate selection but limit the number of individuals evaluated. Genomic selection (GS) could overcome this constraint. We estimated the accuracy of GS prediction of seven oil yield components using A × B hybrid progeny tests with almost 500 crosses for training and 200 crosses for independent validation. Genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) yielded +5000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on the parents of the crosses. The genomic best linear unbiased prediction method gave genomic predictions using the SNPs of the training and validation sets and the phenotypes of the training crosses. The practical impact was illustrated by quantifying the additional bunch production of the crosses selected in the validation experiment if genomic preselection had been applied in the parental populations before progeny tests.

Results

We found that prediction accuracies for cross values plateaued at 500 to 2000 SNPs, with high (0.73) or low (0.28) values depending on traits. Similar results were obtained when parental breeding values were predicted. GS was able to capture genetic differences within parental families, requiring at least 2000 SNPs with less than 5% missing data, imputed using pedigrees. Genomic preselection could have increased the selected hybrids bunch production by more than 10%.

Conclusions

Finally, preselection for yield components using GBS is the first possible application of GS in oil palm. This will increase selection intensity, thus improving the performance of commercial hybrids. Further research is required to increase the benefits from GS, which should revolutionize oil palm breeding.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12864-017-4179-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genome-wide regression models considering general and specific combining ability predict hybrid performance in oilseed rape with similar accuracy regardless of trait architecture

KEY MESSAGE

Genomic prediction using the Brassica 60 k genotyping array is efficient in oilseed rape hybrids. Prediction accuracy is more dependent on trait complexity than on the prediction model. In oilseed rape breeding programs, performance prediction of parental combinations is of fundamental importance. Due to the phenomenon of heterosis, per se performance is not a reliable indicator for F₁-hybrid performance, and selection of well-paired parents requires the testing of large quantities of hybrid combinations in extensive field trials. However, the number of potential hybrids, in general, dramatically exceeds breeding capacity and budget. Integration of genomic selection (GS) could substantially increase the number of potential combinations that can be evaluated. GS models can be used to predict the performance of untested individuals based only on their genotypic profiles, using marker effects previously predicted in a training population. This allows for a preselection of promising genotypes, enabling a more efficient allocation of resources. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of the Illumina Brassica 60 k SNP array for genomic prediction and compared three alternative approaches based on a homoscedastic ridge regression BLUP and three Bayesian prediction models that considered general and specific combining ability (GCA and SCA, respectively). A total of 448 hybrids were produced in a commercial breeding program from unbalanced crosses between 220 paternal doubled haploid lines and five male-sterile testers. Predictive ability was evaluated for seven agronomic traits. We demonstrate that the Brassica 60 k genotyping array is an adequate and highly valuable platform to implement genomic prediction of hybrid performance in oilseed rape. Furthermore, we present first insights into the application of established statistical models for prediction of important agronomical traits with contrasting patterns of polygenic control.

Genomic assisted selection for enhancing line breeding: merging genomic and phenotypic selection in winter wheat breeding programs with preliminary yield trials

KEY MESSAGE

Early generation genomic selection is superior to conventional phenotypic selection in line breeding and can be strongly improved by including additional information from preliminary yield trials. The selection of lines that enter resource-demanding multi-environment trials is a crucial decision in every line breeding program as a large amount of resources are allocated for thoroughly testing these potential varietal candidates. We compared conventional phenotypic selection with various genomic selection approaches across multiple years as well as the merit of integrating phenotypic information from preliminary yield trials into the genomic selection framework. The prediction accuracy using only phenotypic data was rather low (r = 0.21) for grain yield but could be improved by modeling genetic relationships in unreplicated preliminary yield trials (r = 0.33). Genomic selection models were nevertheless found to be superior to conventional phenotypic selection for predicting grain yield performance of lines across years (r = 0.39). We subsequently simplified the problem of predicting untested lines in untested years to predicting tested lines in untested years by combining breeding values from preliminary yield trials and predictions from genomic selection models by a heritability index. This genomic assisted selection led to a 20% increase in prediction accuracy, which could be further enhanced by an appropriate marker selection for both grain yield (r = 0.48) and protein content (r = 0.63). The easy to implement and robust genomic assisted selection gave thus a higher prediction accuracy than either conventional phenotypic or genomic selection alone. The proposed method took the complex inheritance of both low and high heritable traits into account and appears capable to support breeders in their selection decisions to develop enhanced varieties more efficiently.